With many analyzing who should be the fifth starter, there seems to be two camps emerging.  The first camp believes Zack Wheeler should be the fifth starter.  The main basis for this argument, and it is a compelling one, is his 12 start stretch from July 6th – September 7th, 2004 where he was 7-1 with a 2.28 ERA, 1.213 WHIP, and an 8.9 K/9.  Understandably, many believe Wheeler can return to this form.  If so, he is a natural choice for the fifth starter.

The second camp believes Robert Gsellman should be the fifth starter.  Gsellman has vaulted up many top prospect lists due to the stuff he showed at the end of last season.  Like Wheeler, Gsellman was throwing 95 MPH.  Like many young Mets starters, he showed a developing slider.  Unlike Wheeler, Gsellman had the opportunity to pitch in September games that mattered.  With the Mets needing all the wins they could get, he was 4-2 with a 2.42 ERA, 1.276 WHIP, and an 8.5 K/9.  There is every reason to believe the 22 year old can build on this success, and as a result, he should be the fifth starter.

The Mets are justified in going in either direction, and yet, perhaps, the Mets should go in a different direction.  For a multitude of reasons, the Mets should start the year with Seth Lugo in the Opening Day rotation.

The biggest argument you can make for Lugo in the rotation is his curveball.  There has been much written about it this offseason because it could very possibly be the best curveball in the game, at least if you use spin rate metrics.  His curveball naturally belongs on a staff that features some of the best pitches in baseball from Noah Syndergaard‘s fastball to Matt Harvey‘s slider to Jacob deGrom‘s change-up.  And yet, Lugo is more than a curveball.  He has a fastball he can throw as high as 97 MPH if the situation merits.  Like Gsellman, he is improving his slider.

He used this repertoire to pitch extremely well despite extremely difficult circumstances.  With the Mets fighting for the Wild Card, and him not having pitched more than three innings since May, he was thrust into the starting rotation.  Despite those hurdles, Lugo was 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA, 1.149 WHIP, and a 5.6 K/9 as a starter.  With Lugo being put in a better position next season, with him using his curveball more, and him further developing his slider, he promises to be an even better in 2017.

The obvious question is whether he would be a better option than Wheeler or Gsellman.  Arguably, even if Lugo isn’t better, perhaps he should be in the Opening Day rotation anyway.

Based upon the Mets handling of Harvey, the team is likely going to want to limit him somewhere between 160 – 180 innings last year.  Given his not having pitched in two years, there is a real debate if Wheeler can do even that.  Even assuming he can pitch that long, assuming he averages six innings per start, that’s only 27-30 starts.  This would leave the Mets needing to find approximately five more starts.

Then there is Gsellman.  If you subscribe to the Verducci effect, 30 more innings would mean Gsellman’s cap is 189.2 innings.  If he averages six innings per start, he would come close to lasting a full season.  With that said, the Mets would still probably need to find a few more spot starts.  That is even more the case if the Mets plan on using Gsellman in the postseason rotation.

Lugo can take the brunt of these starts to begin the season.  This would permit the Mets to ease Gsellman or Wheeler into the rotation a month or two into the season.  This would allow the Mets to allow either Gsellman or Wheeler to enter the rotation without having to be concerned about their innings.

As for Lugo, he could then move to the bullpen thereby giving the Mets another potentially dominant late inning reliever.  And, if needed, we already know the Mets can rely on him for a spot starter if needed.

Ultimately, the best case scenario for the Mets would be to start the year with Lugo in the rotation.  And who knows?  Based off of what we saw with him last year, he may prove to be the best option for the rotation for the entire season.