Recent reports state the Mets and Neil Walker are in the midst of extending Walker’s current one year $17.2 million deal into a three year deal that may be worth north of $40 million.  Now, if Walker is truly healthy and capable of repeating the numbers he put up in 2016, this deal could very well be a massive discount for the Mets.  But, we don’t know if he can.  It’s one of a few reasons why this may not be the time to extend Walker.

Declining Production Against RHP

Much has been made about the turn-around Walker had as a right-handed hitter.  Overall, he was a completely different hitter from that side of the plate.  The improvement from the right-hand side of the plate masked Walker’s three-year decline as a left-handed hitter:

• 2014: .269/.339/.491
• 2015: .276/.337/.456
• 2016: .266/.333/.433

Now, it is possible this was the result of the back issues.  It also could be the result of what could be the natural continual decline of a now 31 year old player. Fact is, it is too soon to know, and if that is the case, how can you re-invest in that player?

Mets Prospects

If Walker was not extended, he is going to be a free agent along with the teams first baseman Lucas Duda.  The Mets also have an $8.5 team option on Asdrubal Cabrera.  Potentially, the only infielder that could be back next season is David Wright, who no one can count on to play a full season.  On the surface, this is very problematic.

Any concerns that are raised by the pending free agents should be alleviated by the depth of the Mets farm system.  For example, the Las Vegas 51s infield will be loaded:

• 1B Dominic Smith
• 2B Gavin Cecchini
• 3B T.J. Rivera
• SS Amed Rosario

Rivera is the least regarded prospect of the group, and we just saw him hit .358/.378/.552 with two doubles a triple, three homers, and 13 RBI when he took over second base in September.  Coincidentally, Rivera was put in that spot due to the injuries to both Walker and Wilmer Flores.

Rivera could be competing for a spot at second base with Cecchini, Flores, or possibly Cabrera.  If the Mets pick up Cabrera’s option, he could slide to second while Rosario takes over at shortstop.  Overall, even without Walker, the Mets have plenty of middle infield options remaining, and that is before you take into account the possibility Jose Reyes re-signs with the team.

Regardless of the infield permutations in 2018, it seems reasonable to assume the infield will incorporate both Smith and Rosario.  With those two being major league ready next year, the Mets re-signing Walker becomes much less of a priority.

Signing The Starting Pitchers

The young players being able to step in and contribute is important because these players will be extremely cheap.  Whereas Walker would probably demand an average annual value of approximately $13+ million per season, Cecchini, Rivera, and Rosario would cost around $500,000.  That’s a significant difference.  And the Mets can use that money.

Matt Harvey is due to be a free agent after the 2018 season.  Zack Wheeler will be a free agent the following year.  Jacob deGrom will be in his final arbitration year the year Wheeler hits free agency.  Noah Syndergaard will be arbitration eligible next year, and Steven Matz will be arbitration eligible the following year.

These pitchers are about to become extremely expensive.  Considering they are the foundation of the Mets success, the Mets need the payroll room to re-sign them and pay them what they will earn in arbitration.  Giving $13 million or more to Walker potentially impedes with the Mets ability to pay their pitching.  This isn’t a matter of the Mets still being considered to be on austerity; it is a matter of the Mets only being able to spend so much money.

Walker being paid $13 million certainly stands in the way of that happening.  If Walker is not capable of playing everyday, or has diminishing skills like most players in their mid 30s, that will create an even bigger issue.

Walker Is An Unknown

If Walker is healthy, he is an All Star caliber player at second base.  Regardless of the prospects in place, Walker certainly gives the Mets a safer choice.  In fact, Walker could provide the Mets with a better bat than the aforementioned prospects.  For a team that is considered a World Series contender, Walker could be an important piece of the puzzle.

However, no one knows what he will be after his discectomy.  He could remain healthy, but he could show some effects of the surgery leading to decreased mobility and power at the plate.  He could suffer another herniation leading to him needing more surgery.  Presumably, he could show no ill effects, and he could return to form.  At this point, no one knows, nor can anyone be confident in what Walker will be when he steps foot in the field.

This may be a case where it is better to see Walker play now and have to pay more later.  It would be better to pay a production player closer to market value than to try to get a discount and be stuck with an albatross of a contract the next few seasons.  Given the depth of the Mets farm system, you really have to question whether this is a worthwhile or necessary gamble.