Ken Rosenthal’s recent reported for Fox Sports the Mets are interested in pursuing a center field upgrade for the 2017 season.  At this point in the offseason, we have a general idea of the centerfielders that are available in trades.  The Pittsburgh Pirates are known to be willing to move Andrew McCutchen for a king’s ransom.  The Kansas City Royals are willing to move both Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson.  And while the Colorado Rockies have steadfastly maintained he is not available, many assume the Ian Desmond signing could possibly make Charlie Blackmon available.

There are debates to be had on each of the aforementioned players.  McCutchen is coming off a career worst year, and he has rated as one of the worst center fielders in baseball over the past three seasons.  Dyson may be nothing more than a left-handed hitting Juan Lagares.  Cain has his injury issues.  Then there is Blackmon.

The 2016 Blackmon was one of the best center fielders in all of baseball.  In 143 games, Blackmon hit .324/.381/.552 with 111 runs, 35 doubles, five triples, 29 homers, 82 RBI, and 17 stolen bases.  His oWAR was the highest of any outfielder in the National League.  That is all the more impressive when you consider that means he rated better than bona fide superstars like Yoenis Cespedes and Bryce Harper.  He had the highest wRC+ out of any center fielder in baseball not named Mike Trout.  With stats like these, Blackmon quite justifiably won his first ever Silver Slugger.

With the Nationals giving up a massive haul of prospects to acquire Adam Eaton from the Chicago White Sox, you could imagine what teams would be willing to offer for Blackmon.  Offering up such a haul could be a very costly mistake.

The 2016 season was Blackmon’s third season as a starter for the Rockies.  In the prior two seasons combined, Blackmon was a .287/.341/.445 hitter who averaged 88 runs, 29 doubles, six triples, 18 homers, 65 RBI, and 36 stolen bases.  Putting the sometimes overstated Coors Field effect aside, that’s a pretty good player.  Still, is that the type of player that is worth giving up a massive haul of prospects?  Maybe, if he brings real value to a team as a defensive center fielder.

He doesn’t.  Over the past three seasons, Blackmon has averaged a -3 DRS and a -6.6 UZR in center field.  In essence, Blackmon is below average in center field.  Now, it is difficult to play center field in Coors Field.  However, the same could be said for playing center field at Citi Field.  Since the ballpark has been opened, Lagares is the only center fielder who has played over a thousand innings in a season that has posted a positive DRS and UZR for the Mets.  Therefore, expecting an improvement in center for Blackmon due to a change in ballpark would be folly.

Even assuming Blackmon would be a better fielder, would his improvement as a defender offset what would likely be a reduction in his offensive numbers?

Over time, there has been a noted Coors Field effect on players where we see drastic home/road splits.  Blackmon is no different.  In his career, he has been a .334/.389/.511 hitter at home and a .261/.305/.422 hitter on the road.  That should give any team pause, especially the Mets with Blackmon hitting .219/.254/.375 in 18 career games at Citi Field.  The obvious caveat there is sample size and his having to fact the Mets pitchers.  Despite that, there is every reason to believe Blackmon would regress offensively away from Coors Field, especially when we see most hitters regress after leaving Coors Field.

For example, in Matt Holliday‘s career he is a .361/.427/.656 hitter at Coors Field.  In his last three years as a Rockie, he hit .329/.400/.579 while averaging 44 doubles, four triples, 32 homers, and 113 RBI a season.  In his three seasons after leaving the Rockies, Holliday became a .308/.391/.524 hitter who averaged 40 doubles, one triple, 25 homers, and 96 RBI a season.  While Holliday was still a very good hitter after leaving the Rockies, he was no longer the same offensive player. 

The obvious counter-point to Holliday is Dexter Fowler, who is a career .298/.396/.490 hitter at Coors Field.  As a Rockie, Fowler was a .270/.365/.423 hitter who averaged 24 homers, 11 triples, eight homers, and 42 RBI as a regular.  Since leaving the Rockies, Fowler has been a .266/.369/.419 hitter who averaged 25 doubles, six triples, 13 homers, and 43 RBI.  Arguably, Fowler has not experienced a drop off in his offensive production since leaving the Rockies.  However, it should be noted that unlike Holliday, Fowler has played in Minute Maid Park and Wrigley Field, two ballparks that traditionally favor hitters.

Even with the outfield walls being reconfigured, Citi Field is still not a hitter’s park.  In that respect, it is likely Blackmon sees a regression similar to the one Holliday experienced playing in O.co Coliseum and Busch Stadium.  In addition to the Coors Field regression, we may likely see a regression in Blackmon’s numbers from the 2016 season as much of his offensive production was fueled by a .350 BABIP, which is 27 points higher than his career mark entering this year.  It is also hard to believe Blackmon will build off his 2016 season with him turning 31 next July.

Ultimately, it is quite likely he regresses in 2017 at the plate whether or not he is playing in Coors Field.  Moreover, given the advanced data and his getting older, it is a real debate how much longer Blackmon should play in center field.  With these red flags, and what a possible prospect cost would likely be, the Mets should not look to trade for Blackmon.

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online