Before Thursday night’s disaster, the Mets were 34-1 when they were leading after seven innings.  After Addison Reed grooved one down the heart of the plate to Adonis Garcia, the Mets record is now 34-2 when leading after seven innings.  It’s hard to get on Reed for the loss as he has been so good this year.  In fact, the Mets have not blown a lead in which Reed pitched the eighth and Jeurys Familia pitched the ninth.

Reed is a huge reason why.  So far this year, Reed has pitched the best he ever has in his entire career.  Up until last night’s blown save, Reed was 1-1 with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.010 WHIP.  During the month of May, he did not allow one earned run in 12 appearances.  He limited batters to a .205/.225/.205 batting line.  It seemed that as the season was progressing, he was getting stronger.

Unfortunately, Reed’s success has not carried forward into June.  So far, he is 1-2 in the month of June with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.313 WHIP.  Batters are hitting .262/.311/.476 against him.  He has already made 11 appearances this month (he made 13 in April and 12 in May), and he is starting to show some signs of fatigue.  It is showing both in the results and his velocity  In April, he threw a 92.9 MPH fastball and an 86.8 MPH slider.  In May, he was throwing a 93.8 MPH fastball with an 87.4 MPH slider.  In June, his velocity is down.  He’s throwing a 92.6 MPH fastball and a 85.3 MPH slider.

Ultimately, this is what Reed has been his entire career.  He has typically been a pitcher that wears down over the course of the season.  Here are his career monthly splits:

• March/April 2.79 ERA
• May 3.83 ERA
• June 5.54 ERA
• July 3.66 ERA
• August 2.08 ERA
• September/October 5.21 ERA

This is Reed’s typical June swoon. He tires as the season progresses, and he’s rejuvenated with the All Star Break.  He’s following the same pattern this year but with far better results. 

Overall, Terry Collins may need to watch how he uses Reed for the rest of the season as the Mets will need him at his best for the pennant race and beyond. 

Editor’s Note: this was also published on metsmerizedonline.com