Coming into this season, Fangraphs showed how the Mets switch from Daniel Murphy to Neil Walker would hurt the Mets in 2016. The projections were that Murphy would have a better year in Washington than Walker would have in New York. 

So far, the projections were right. Murphy has been better with the Nationals than Walker has been with the Mets.  Much better. 

Coming into a three game litmus test for both the Mets and Nationals, Murphy is having a career year. He’s leading the big leagues with 56 hits. A month and a half into the season, he’s still hitting a major league leading .400.  Among major league second basemen, he’s among the leaders in nearly every statistical category:

• Doubles (13) – 1st NL & 2nd MLB
• Triples (2) – 2nd NL & MLB
• Homers (5) – 3rd NL & 9th MLB
• RBI (3) – 2nd NL & 3rd MLB
• OBP (.433) – 2nd NL & MLB
• SLG (.629) – 1st NL & MLB
• WAR (1.7) – 1st NL & 5th MLB

Murphy is a big reason why the Nationals are in first place. It is unrealistic to expect Murphy to keep up this pace. He’s never been this type of hitter. With that said, it’s a month and a half into the season, and Murphy is showing no signs of slowing down. In fact, he’s been better in May than April. Even without facing the Mets once, he’s been a thorn in their side. 

No matter how you look at it, Murphy been the best second baseman in the National League. He’s been the best second baseman to switch teams. Even with Walker tying the Mets record for homers in a single month, the Mets decision to pass on Murphy doesn’t look good. 

However, the Mets moving on from Murphy wasn’t about 2016. It was about the future. The Mets, a win-now team, made a decision in Murphy based on the future. 

The wisdom of the Mets decision will be judged by how Walker plays this year in comparison to how Murphy plays. It will be judged by how Dilson Herrera plays when he becomes the full time second baseman. It will be judged by how the compensation pick the Mets received for Murphy develops. 

Ultimately, the Mets decision will be judged upon whether the Mets win the World Series. Murphy was the Mets best player in the postseason last year. The Mets don’t beat the Dodgers without him. They don’t go to the World Series without him. 

It’s too soon to judge the Mets decision on passing on Murphy. However, with him helping the Mets biggest competition in the NL East, the early returns aren’t good.