In 2015, Matt Harvey became the pitcher who has thrown more innings than any other pitcher post-Tommy John surgery. In fact, he became only the fifth pitcher to throw more than 200 innings in the first year post-Tommy John surgery. The other four are:

1. Tommy John 207.0 IP
2. Jake Westbrook 202.2 IP
3. Adam Wainwright 213.2 IP
4. John Lackey 215.1 IP

Last year, Harvey had a very good year in his first year back. In determining how next season will go, we should look to these other four pitchers as they are the only other pitchers who have thrown as many innings as Harvey has after Tommy John surgery. 

Tommy John

As we all know, Tommy John was the first pitcher to return from Tommy John surgery. Obviously, he had a successful return as physicians have continued to perform the surgery to resuscitate pitchers’ careers. 

In 1974, John’s last season before surgery, he went 13-3 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.144 WHIP. He had a 2.74 FIP and a 132 ERA+. He only lasted 22 starts throwing 159.0 innings before shutting it down, having the sugery, and missing the 1975 season. 

In 1976, John returned to the Dodgers. He went 10-10 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.295 WHIP. He had a 3.08 FIP and a 109 ERA+. He made 31 starts and threw 207.0 innings. He returned, and he was able to pitch. However, he did not pitch nearly as well as he had prior to the surgery. 

In 1977, John returned to form. He was 20-7 with a 1.248 WHIP. He had a 3.05 FIP and a 138 ERA+. He made 31 starts throwing 220.1 innings. He finished second in the Cy Young voting. He was better than he was pre-surgery. 

With Tommy John, we saw a pitcher get better the second year after his surgery. Also, looking over the rest of his career, John was able to pitch until he was 46 years old. Accordingly, we can reasonably conclude that the 200 innings post-surgery did not negatively impact his career. We can also reasonably conclude that John was better and stronger than those 200+ innings. 

Jake Westbrook

In 2008, Westbrook was only able to make five starts before needing Tommy John surgery. In 2007, his last presumably healthy season, he pitched 152.0 innings going 6-9 in 25 starts with a 3.12 ERA, 1.408 WHIP, 4.33 FIP, and a 105 ERA+.

From 2004-2006, Westbrook had pitched over 200 innings in each season with an ERA+ ranging from 93-127. In the 2004-2007 timeframe, Westbrook had a 91.69 MPH fastball, 81.69 MPH change, 80.55 MPH curve, and an 88.40 MPH cutter. 

When Westbrook returned from surgery in 2010, he threw 202.2 innings over 33 starts between the Indians and the Cardinals. He had a 4.22 ERA, 1.337 WHIP, 4.22 WHIP, and a 93 ERA+. Upon his return, he threw a 91.07 MPH fastball, 79.63 MPH change, 83.56 MPH slider, 79.78 MPH curve, and an 86.07 MPH cutter. 

The following season, Westbrook made 33 starts pitching 183.1 innings. He went 12-9 with a 4.66 ERA, 1.533 WHIP, 4.25 FIP, and an 80 ERA+. He had a 90.76 MPH fastball, 80.22 MPH change, 79.52 MPH curve, 86.44 MPH cutter. 

Westbrook’s career would only last two more seasons. He never again reached 200 innings in a season. He didn’t have the rebound Tommy John seemed to have, but then again, Westbrook was never the pitcher John was. 

Adam Wainwright

In 2010, Wainwright went 20-11 with a 2.42 ERA, and a 1.051 WHIP in 230.1 innings. He had an ERA+ of 160 and an FIP of 2.86. He was an All Star, finished second in the Cy Young voting, and was a top 20 MVP candidate. He would also need Tommy John surgery after this season. 

Before the surgery, Wainwright’s repertoire included a 91.73 MPH sinker, 83.56 MPH change, 74.69 MPH curve, and a 86.44 MPH cutter. With this repertoire, he had consecutive  seasons of 200+ innings pitched, 19+ wins, and a sub 2.65 ERA. 

After rehabbing during the 2011 season, Wainwright returned to throw 213.2 innings between the regular season and playoffs. Wainwright would go 14-13 with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.248 WHIP in 198.2 innings in the regular season. He had a 96 ERA+ and a 3.10 FIP. He returned with a 90.70 MPH sinker, 84.25 MPH change, 74.50 MPH curve, and an 86.07 MPH cutter. 

The following year, Wainwright seemed to return to his pre-Tommy John form. He was 19-9 with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.068 WHIP. He led the league with 241.2 innings pitched. His ERA+ was 127, and his FIP was 2.55. He threw a 92.08 MPH four seamer, a 91.06 MPH sinker, 84.56 MPH change, 76.12 MPH curve, and an 88.60 MPH cutter. He was an All Star, a Gold Glover, a top 20 MVP candidate, and he finished second in the Cy Young voting. 

Wainwright followed this up with a strong 2014. He would miss most of 2015 with a torn Achillies. Like Tommy John, he was a much better pitcher the second year after Tommy John surgery. 

John Lackey

There was a time it was thought that Lackey forgot how to pitch when he signed a contract with the Red Sox. 

In 2009, Lackey’s last year with the Angels, he was 11-8 in 176.1 innings over 27 starts. He had a 3.83 ERA, 1.270 WHIP, 115 ERA+, and a 3.73 FIP. He threw a 92.11 MPH four seamer, 91.83 MPH sinker, 85.68 MPH change, 82.68 MPH slider, and a 79.37 MPH curve. 

Interestingly in the two years prior to his surgery, Lackey threw a 92.06 MPH four seamer, 91.42 MPH sinker, 84.83 MPH change, 85.53 MPH slider, and an 80.02 MPH curve. He went 26-23 with a 5.26 ERA, 1.504 WHIP, 82 ERA+, and a 4.21 FIP. While he made 33 starts pitching 216.0 innings in 2010, he was only able to make 28 starts while pitching 160.0 innings in 2011. 

In 2013, he returned to throw 215.1 innings between the regular season and postseason. In the regular season, he was 10-13 in 29 starts throwing 189.1 innings. He had a 3.52 ERA, 1.157 WHIP, 117 ERA+, and a 3.86 FIP. He threw a 92.64 MPH four seamer, 92.04 MPH sinker, 84.19 MPH change, 86.28 MPH slider, and an 80.33 MPH curve. 

Lackey followed this up with a strong 2014. In 2014, he pitched 198.0 innings going 14-10 in 31 starts between the Red Sox and Cardinals. He had a 1.278 WHIP, 102 ERA+, and a 3.78 FIP. He pitched an additional 13.1 innings in the postseason giving him 213.1 innings total. He threw a 92.7 MPH four seamer, 92.24 MPH sinker, 84.43 MPH change, 84.49 MPH slider, and a 79.10 MPH curve. 

Lackey had an even better 2015. Like John and Wainwright, Lackey got better the second year away from Tommy John. As such, in three of the four test cases, pitchers who threw 200 innings in the first year post Tommy John improved the second year after surgery. 

Matt Harvey

Matt Harvey has thrown more innings than any other pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery. He’s also the youngest of the group, and he throws the hardest. 

In 2013, Harvey was the All Star Game starter and an early Cy Young candidate. In the abbreviated season, he finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. Before he was shut down, he went 9-5 in 26 starts pitching 178.1 innings. He had a 2.27 ERA, 0.931 WHIP, 157 ERA+, and a 2.01 FIP.  His FIP lead the league. Before he was shut down, he threw a 96.63 MPH four seamer, an 87.79 MPH change, a 90.50 MPH slider, and an 84.25 MPH curveball. 

When Harvey returned, he threw a 96.46 MPH four seamer, 88.78 MPH change, 90.24 MPH slider, and an 84.35 MPH curveball. So, Harvey did return with similar velocity than he had before the surgery. That may be, in part, due to the fact that he had about 18 months of rehab as opposed to the year of rehab he predecessors had. 

In the regular season, Harvey pitched 189.1 innings in 29 starts. He went 13-8 with a 2.71 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 136 ERA+, and a 3.05 FIP. Looking over these numbers, Harvey’s stuff might’ve returned, but he still had a period of adjustment. While he had respectable numbers, he did not produce results similar to what he did in 2013. By judging by the previous pitchers, we can reasonably expect Harvey to return to his 2013 levels. 

So overall, now that he has a year under his belt, and he has his full arsenal at his disposal, Matt Harvey is primed to have a Cy Young caliber 2016.