Before the series, I detailed how the Mets would win this series because they essentially had three Madison Bumgarners. I have to admit after two games, I have to admit my comparison doesn’t look good. I obsess over everything, and I have to know why. Note to my son, good luck dealing with me buddy. 

When I first looked at everything, I saw that Bumgarner established his fastball and then mixed in his breaking pitches. It’s how the Mets three stud muffins pitched all year long. My eyes told me in Game 1 and 2 that Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom abandoned who they were. 

They didn’t establish the fastball. Instead, they started mixing in the offspeed changes immediately. When they needed to get the big outs in the fifth for deGrom and sixth for Harvey, the Royals had seen everything, and they weren’t surprised by anything. However, I’m a fan. I see a lot of things, and usually what I see is pro-Mets. 

Here is deGrom’s breakdown from the regular season:

• 96.23 MPH fastball 37.89%
• 96.44 MPH sinker 18.01%
• 86.54 MPH change 15.84%
• 90.03 MPH slider 12.01%
• 81.63 MPH curve 16.15 %

Here’s deGrom last night:

• 95.48 MPH fastball 28.72%
• 95.48 MPH sinker 27.66%
• 86.53 MPH change 10.64%
• 87.96 MPH slider 13.83%
• 81.02 MPH curve 19.15 %

Here’s what I see. He had a slight dip in velocity. He was throwing more lower in the zone and not moving the ball horizontally in the zone. He threw more breaking pitches than changing speeds. In more ways than one, he was a different pitcher. 

Harvey was more successful, but he couldn’t hold a lead. I’m curious what, if anything, he did different than deGrom and/or during the regular season. Here’s Harvey’s regular season:

• 95.86 MPH fastball 59.56%
• 88.08 MPH change 11.48%
• 90.29 MPH slider 14.75%
• 84.01 MPH curve 14.21%

Here’s his Game 1 start:

• 94.72 MPH fastball 37.50%
• 87.56 MPH change 25.00%
• 89.57 MPH slider 21.25%
• 83.09 MPH curve 16.25%

Like deGrom, he had a slight velocity dip. He was more drastic in how he pitched. Harvey pretty much threw any pitch at anytime. I’m not sure if that indicates he kept the Royals more off balance and that’s why he went deeper in the game giving up more runs. I’m not sure if Harvey’s secondary pitches are just that much better. 

What I do see is that Harvey and deGrom changed how they pitched. Personally, I think it’s from an over reliance on scouting reports. I’m not a dinosaur. I think you have to scout your opponent to find out how to best beat your opponent. 

However, you also have to scout yourself. You need to find out the things you do well. The Mets didn’t do enough of that in Kansas City, and they suffered. It’s a lesson for Noah Syndergaard. You have to be yourself on the mound. Establish the fastball and mix in your secondary pitches. 

It worked against the Royals last year. It’s worked for Thor this year. It’s how the Mets will turn this series around.