Let’s face facts. If not for Madison Bumgarner, this would be a title defense for the Royals as opposed to redemption. It took Bumgarner everything he had to help the Giants win the World Series. 

In the 2014 World Series, Bumgarner went 2-0 with 1 save, a 0.43 ERA, 0.476 WHIP, and a 7.3 K/9. He basically said to his teammates, I got three; you just need to get one. In the three games he pitched in, the Royals averaged one run per game. In the other games, the Royals averaged six runs per game. That’s a huge gap. 

With all the noise over the Royals hitting the 95+ MPH pitching well, I wanted to see what Bumgarner threw in that World Series:

• 93.40 MPH fastball 52.23% of the time
• 85.04 MPH changeup 3.78% of the time 
• 76.25 MPH curve 15.12% of the time
• 87.46 MPH cutter 27.84% of the time
• 67.20 MPH slow curve 1.03% of the time

This shows not only how to beat the Royals but how to pitch in general. You want to establish the fastball and keep the batters off balance with the offspeed pitches. Let’s see how the Mets stud muffins compare this postseason:

Matt Harvey

• 95.86 MPH fastball 59.56% of the time
• 88.08 MPH change 11.48% of the time
• 90.29 MPH slider 14.75% of the time
• 84.01 MPH curve 14.21% of the time

Jacob deGrom

• 96.23 MPH fastball 37.89% of the time
• 96.44 MPH sinker 18.01% of the time 
• 86.54 MPH change 15.84% of the time 
• 90.03 MPH slider 12.01% of the time
• 81.63 MPH curve 16.15% of the time

Noah Syndergaard

• 98.66 MPH fastball 26.64% of the time
• 98.63 MPH sinker 32.31% of the time
• 89.46 MPH change 16.16% of the time
• 87.96 MPH slider 8.73% of the time
• 81.53 MPH curve 16.16% of the time

What does this information tell us?  The Mets three aces pitch similarly to Bumgarner. They establish the fastball and use the same ratio of breaking pitches to keep the hitters off balance. There are two key differences here: (1) Bumgarner is a lefty; and (2) the Royals offense is much improved. 

However, keep in mind the Royals couldn’t handle Bumgarner at all last year. Now, the Mets are running out three Bumgarners out there. They will pitch in six of the seven games if necessary. 

In the end, I’m not sure how the Royals can keep up their 5.9 runs per postseason game. If they want to beat the Mets they will either have to find a way or pitch much better.  If they don’t do either or both, the Mets will win the World Series.