By now, you’ve heard that Lenny Dykstra used private eyes to gather information on umpires for his benefit: 

Do I think Dykstra is capable of this?  Absolutely. However, he’s capable of it. I still don’t believe him. 

Now, we need to pinpoint the veracity of his claim, we need to figure out when it supposedly happened.  He wasn’t definitive when, but he knew the net result was the walks. The key to his statement was the year after he did this, he lead the league in walks. Looking at this, his statement proves out. 

In 1992, he only had 40 walks. The next year his walks soared astronomically. He went from those 40 walks to 129 walks. It’s also true there was money at stake because Dykstra was arbitration eligible.  This is where the story falls apart. 

In 1992, Dykstra made $2,316,667. The typical percentage paid to an agent is 5%. That reduces his income to $2,200,834. Union dues were $3,660. It’s negligible, but it reduces the income to $2,197,173. Now, there’s the tax issue. The tax rate in 1992 was 31%. There are deductions and the like which would reduce the effective tax rate. However, he also has state and city taxes to pay. Pennsylvania had a flat rate of 2.95%. To be conservative, let’s assume Dykstra paid 25% in taxes. 

Dykstra’s disposable income would then be $1,647,880.  This doesn’t even include living expenses. Are we to believe Dykstra spent roughly one-third of his disposable income on blackmailing umpires. I can’t. There’s a bigger reason beyond the financial feasibility. 

It doesn’t make sense. Let’s say Dykstra did as he said. Wouldn’t the catcher use the same information to get strike calls for his pitcher. Was there a spike in catcher walk rates I don’t know about?  Of course not. Let’s call it for what it is. He had a career year. 

Besides that, his walk rate declined. It was 0.80 in 1993 and 1994. The next year?  It was 0.65. Did the umpires start ignoring him?  No. He had two good years. Why?  We it just so happens he started using steroids. His slugging percentage went from .402 to .482. He went from 6 to 19 homers. He went from 18 to 44 doubles. Pitchers will be more careful and more likely to walk you. 

However, that’s not the main reason I don’t believe him. The main reason I don’t believe him is he’s a fraud. Literally. He lead everyone to believe he was a money genius. He was just cheating the system just like he did with the steroids. He’s lied and concealed. It’s the behavior that makes you think he could’ve spied on umpires. Ultimately, however, it seems more like the typical braggadocio he’s had his entire life.

It sure made a good story, but that’s all it is. A story.