Tylor Megill
The New York Mets were always in a predicament with Seth Lugo. Lugo wanted to start, but he proved to be far too valuable of a reliever. In fact, there was a time you could argue he was the best reliever in all of baseball.
With the Mets controlling his rights for years, Lugo had to sit and wait for his chance to start again. He got that with the San Diego Padres. He signed a one year deal worth $7.5 million with a $7.5 million option for 2024, which he turned down.
Lugo bet on himself, and he won the bet. In 26 starts, he was 8-7 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.203 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9, and an 8.6 K/9. He averaged 5.2 innings per start. He failed to pitch five innings four times, and he came within one out of having a complete game in his last start of the season.
From an advanced stats perspective, he had a 1.8 WAR, 115 ERA+, and a 3.83 FIP. Per Baseball Savant, his fastball was great, and his curveball spin rate remained off the charts. By and large, he was a very effective pitcher.
Digging deeper, we saw he had a .298 BABIP. That’s right in line with career averages and with league averages, so we should not anticipate regression. The same goes for his LOB%. In essence, with Lugo, with the possible exception of age, we should not see regression.
We also know Lugo has the ability to pitch in New York. He arrived in 2016, and he was great down the stretch for a team that made a near miracle run to the postseason. He pitched three days in the row for the first time in his career in the 2022 Wild Card Series, and he was again fantastic.
The moment and the market does not overwhelm Lugo. Rather, he thrives in those situations. That is always of the utmost importance for the Mets.
That goes double for a Mets team looking to rebuild their rotation. So far, they only have Kodai Senga and José Quintana lined up for the rotation next year while they debate what to do with David Peterson and Tylor Megill.
The Mets need dependable starters and pitching depth. Bringing Lugo back does that. If he had enough innings to qualify, he would have ranked in the top 25 in FIP making him a top of the rotation starter in this league. Ideally, the Mets would be bringing him aboard to pitch at the back-end thereby further strengthening their rotation.
When we look forward, Lugo can then be redeployed in the bullpen come the postseason. With that, you get the best of both worlds. You get Lugo being an effective starter, and then you get to see him pull off what Andrew Miller did in 2016. Put another way, Lugo significantly strengthens the Mets chances of winning the World Series.
In the end, there may be better options available. Lugo may want to look elsewhere. However, in the end bringing Lugo back to start for the Mets advances their chances of winning a World Series more than many of the other starters on the free agent market.
The New York Mets were swept in a doubleheader by the Detroit Tigers. With the Tigers being a very bad team (entered the day 10-17), that’s bad news in and of itself, but it’s not quite cause to overreact.
Losing with Adam Ottavino blowing the save in game one is what it is. Ottavino hasn’t quite been what he was last season, and this is the second time out of five chances he has faltered in ninth inning duties. Considering he had a 2.70 ERA before the appearance, this is not cause for alarm.
No, the real cause for alarm was Max Scherzer was very bad . . . again.
In a homecoming of sorts, Scherzer lasted just 3.1 innings allowing six earned on eight hits and one walk. He only struck out three. He allowed two homers. There’s no other way to say it. He was horrible.
More to the point, he has been very bad this season. He’s averaging 4.2 innings per start. Yes, that is partially because of the 10 game suspension, but he also has not pitched beyond 5.1 innings since his Opening Day start.
The 7.9 K/9 stands to be the worst mark of his career. The same goes for the 20.8 K%. His 2.00 K/BB and 2.4 HR/9 also stand to be the worst. Really, all across the board, this looks like it is going to be the worst season of Scherzer’s career.
With Scherzer being 38, this is cause for panic. He is supposed to be a co-ace, and instead, he looks like a pitcher who could be done. He’s not even pitching like an effective fifth starter.
Maybe it was the altered off-season routine because of last season’s oblique issues. Perhaps, it is the pitch clock. Maybe, just maybe, it is the fact, he’s 38 years old, and sooner or later, we were just going to see his performance drop.
Scherzer thinks the layoff hurt him. Maybe, he’s right, but then again, he seemingly has had a lot of excuses this season. He’s needed them too with his performance.
His fastball velocity is down almost a full MPH with it dropping to 92.5 MPH in the start against the Tigers. The average exit velocity against us by more than three MPH. The hard hit rate is a troubling 40.9%. Batters have been able to barrel him up.
Looking at the spin rates in his first start back from the suspension, they were all notably down. That’s not de facto evidence of cheating or a drop off. It could just be frustration and confusion on what to do now after being suspended for using rosin. Remember, David Cone effectively defended Scherzer on Sunday Night Baseball.
The cheating or not aspect misses the point. If Scherzer is now at a loss for what he can and cannot do, we should be at a loss for how Scherzer reclaims his ace form.
The Mets are missing José Quintana. Carlos Carrasco looked done before going on the IL. David Peterson regressed. Tylor Megill hasn’t lit the world on fire. Joey Lucchesi followed a great start against the San Francisco Giants with diminishing returns in his subsequent starts.
This Mets team was built on their starting pitching. Considering they did not improve the offense, their chances of contending are tied to this rotation. Even if Justin Verlander is what we hoped he would be, it looks like the rotation as a whole won’t be. If that’s the case, the Mets are in a very dangerous place.
The start of the season has not been kind to the New York Mets rotation. José Quintana is out until July after his bone graft surgery. Justin Verlander started the season on the IL, and it looks like he’s ready to return after over a month on the IL.
Max Scherzer needed a day between starts, and then, he was given the bogus 10 game suspension. Carlos Carrasco struggled with the pitch clock, and then, he was shut down with right elbow inflammation,.
Kodai Senga has so far struggled getting accustomed to pitching in the Major Leagues. We don’t know if it is the quicker turn around between starts or the ball. Whatever the case is, he’s walking the ballpark, and as a result, he can’t go deep into games.
It’s possible some of the Mets pitchers issues is fatigue caused by the pitch clock. It could also be age. It may just be a mixture of everything. Whatever the case, the Mets rotation is a bit of a mess.
We saw David Peterson struggle and get sent down to Triple-A Syracuse. Tylor Megill has been uneven, but he has probably been the Mets best starter to date. Joey Lucchesi has been a pleasant surprise, and it may be difficult to lift him from the rotation with his early season success.
Looking at everything, the question is why should the Mets look to remove Megill or Lucchesi from the rotation? Sure, it would push the rotation to six starters, but at the same token, that’s what the Mets need right now.
The team is already giving Senga an extra day with Senga not being used to pitching every five days in Japan. Verlander had all of one rehab start, and that didn’t go five innings. Scherzer has needed a break, and Carrasco may return soon.
Another factor is the Mets start a stretch of games where they play six games in five days. Right there, they will need six starting pitchers. After that, they have an off day on Monday, May 8. After that, the Mets play 13 straight games before their next break. Overall, they are set to play 25 games over the next 27 days.
That schedule includes three separate road trips, and the stretch ends with a trip to Coors Field. As we know those Coors Field trips mess up with your pitching staff something fierce.
Taking it all into account, the Mets have pitchers who are still building arm strength. They are still getting accustomed to the pitch clock, and they have been battling fatigue a bit. There is a lot of games bunched together with a lot of travel.
The best way for the Mets to handle it all for the moment is to go to a six man rotation. Keep arms like Scherzer and Verlander fresh. Give Senga a better chance to acclimate to New York. Give Lucchesi and Megill a longer look in the rotation to see who can stick while Quintana and Carrasco is sidelined.
The six man rotation is what the Mets need now to ensure they make it healthy and strong to the end of the season. They need it now to let them survive a tightly packed May schedule.
The New York Mets have had too many starting pitching injuries to start the season. In fact, at the moment, Kodai Senga is all that remains from their projected Opening Day rotation.
Justin Verlander and José Quintana started the year on the IL. Verlander is missing over a month, and Quintana is out until around the All-Star Break if not longer. Carlos Carrasco has an elbow injury, and there is a very real possibility he could be done for the season if not for his career.
Max Scherzer needed to have an extra day before his last start, and then he was suspended. Our good friend David Cone would show why the suspension was garbage, but nevertheless, Scherzer was suspended for 10 games.
David Cone's Rosin Experiment. pic.twitter.com/ZI5CnAkZ1C
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 24, 2023
As we know, this has pushed David Peterson and Tylor Megill into the rotation. That wasn’t a big deal as both were good starters for the Mets 101 team last season. Joey Lucchesi also had a history of being a capable Major League starter, so while the Mets may not have wanted him in the rotation, his needing to start wasn’t an issue.
The issue was with José Butto being pushed into the rotation.
Last season, Butto was thrust into the rotation, and the results were ugly. In his lone start, he last just four innings allowing seven runs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Alec Bohm really got the best of him hitting two homers. After that game, there were many who unfairly said he was a bust and would never be a Major League starter.
Fast forward to this year, and Butto was again starting games for the Mets. That is something no one wanted, but this time, Butto has fared far better than anyone would have expected.
Through two starts, Butto has pitched 9 2/3 innings allowing three earned runs. Per Baseball Savant, batters are not hitting him hard at all, and they’re having difficulty squaring the ball up on him.
Of course, it’s not all good news. Butto’s control has been poor, and that’s probably being kind. He’s walked 10 over 9 2/3 innings. That’s more than a walk per inning.
Forget about his 2.79 ERA being unsustainable with those many walks. It’s a flat out recipe for disaster. That goes double when he’s recorded only three strikeouts.
However, he’s getting away with it. There are some good reasons for it. There’s the aforementioned weak contact against him.
There’s also the 57.6% ground ball rate. Weak ground balls are easy outs for an infield with Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil. That’ll get you out of a lot of jams.
The other answer is Butto has faced bad teams in the Oakland Athletics and Washington Nationals. Assuredly, he’d get roughed up by better teams, but he pitched passably against the opponents he had to face.
We can dismiss what he’s done. He’s been five and fly against bad teams. That’s only part of the picture.
He’s also eaten up 9 2/3 innings which could’ve been put on the bullpen. That will help the Mets in the long run. It makes what he did far more important than many realize.
In the end, Butto looks like he still has work to do before he’s Major League ready. In the interim, he’s better than when we last saw him, and he still made a positive contribution to the team. Credit to him for stepping up.
The New York Mets needed to rebuild their rotation for the 2023 season. Part of that was picking up Carlos Carrasco‘s $14 million option. The move made sense as the Mets needed arms, and Carrasco was coming off a season where he posted a 97 ERA+ and 3.53 FIP.
By all accounts, Carrasco looked to be a serviceable fifth starter. If he didn’t pan out, this Mets team has shown they are able to recognize a sunk cost. However, things do not appear that way to start the season.
On the latter point, the Mets pitching depth is already being tested. Justin Verlander and José Quintana began the season on the IL. That means their starting pitching depth of Tylor Megill and David Peterson began the season in the rotation. Down in Triple-A, Jose Butto and Joey Lucchesi got hit around in their first starts of the season.
That means, at least for right now, the Mets need Carrasco to be good. He was anything but that to start the season.
Carrasco was alright the first two innings not allowing a run. From there, it would slowly unravel starting with a Jesse Winker RBI single in the third. Brian Anderson piled on with a two run homer in the fourth.
The wheels came completely off in the fifth. He started the inning by walking Christian Yelich and Winker leading Buck Showalter to come get him. Both of the inherited runners would score as Tommy Hunter struggled out of the bullpen. After all was said and done, the Brewers led 10-0 after the fifth inning with Carrasco being tagged with five earned runs.
There were many things wrong with Carrasco. He lost 2-3 MPH on his fastball as the game progressed. Before this season, he was a slow methodical pitcher. IN his first start of the season, he appeared rushed by the pitch clock. In fact, he would receive a pitch clock violation before his first pitch of the season.
Carlos Carrasco receives a pitch clock violation before he throws his first pitch of the season pic.twitter.com/jfZFuYb38N
— SNY (@SNYtv) April 3, 2023
The home plate umpire would talk with Carrasco on a few occasions about the pitch clock. For his part, Carrasco was clearly impacted by the pitch clock. As he would say after the game, “It is crazy. I only have 15 seconds. it is what it is right now.” (Tim Britton, The Athletic).
As noted by Britton, fatigue might’ve played a role. Carrasco would throw 27 pitches over a 10 minute period in the third. He then threw 29 pitches over 11 minutes in the fourth. Over a stretch of 42 minutes, Carrasco threw 67 pitches.
Carrasco admitted to fatigue. We saw that both in his velocity and the Brewers bats squaring him up. The question for him and the Mets going forward is whether Carrasco can adjust. In his first start, the answer was a clear and resounding no for the 36 year old hurler. Given the state of the Mets rotation, he is going to have to figure it out right now because the Mets cannot afford him being non-competitive and unable to adjust to the pitch clock right now.
Down in Miami, Tylor Megill got the start. Like last season, he was thrust into the rotation due to an injury to a future Hall of Famer. This time, it was Justin Verlander on the IL.
While Megill had control issues during spring, he was fairly locked in against the Miami Marlins. Over five innings, the only mistake was he left a pitch out over the plate for Nick Fortes, who hit a two run homer.
He’d pick up the win after allowing just those two earned. He’d also strike out seven.
Part of the reason he got the win was Pete Alonso having a big day at the plate. He’d hit the go-ahead RBI double in the fifth, and he’d score on a Mark Canha RBI single (Canha had a great day at the plate including a homer).
The go-ahead run was scored by Jeff McNeil. In McNeil fashion, he played right and second in the game.
Brandon Nimmo reached base three times and stole a base. Alonso reached base four times and would’ve had a three hit game if not for a completely botched call and replay.
Speaking of botching things, Francisco Álvarez, Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos all had big days at the plate. In fact, Álvarez and Vientos would homer off consecutive pitches.
Of the group, Baty had the best day of all. He was 4-for-5 with four runs, two homers, a walk, and five RBI. One of the two homers was an opposite field grand slam.
The one thing the Mets have done better than almost anyone is draft. We see it with the players contributing at the Major League level, and we see it with the players on their way.
Across the board, the homegrown Mets had a very good day. Perhaps, one day soon, we will see all of these players on the same roster leading the New York Mets to a World Series.
The New York Mets got even more bad news from the starting rotation front when it was announced Justin Verlander was going to start the year on the IL. While Verlander sounds optimistic, at the moment, we do not know how long he will be on the IL.
This comes after we learned José Quintana is going to miss much of the year due to his bone graft surgery. As a result, the Mets are going to have David Peterson and Tylor Megill in the Opening Day rotation when the team understandably wanted to use them as pitching depth.
Arguably, this is a very good thing. First and foremost, it is going to allow Peterson and Megill to further establish themselves as Major League caliber starting pitchers. Remember, after this season, Carlos Carrasco will be a free agent with the Mets almost a lock not to re-sign him. That means one of these two can grab a spot in the the 2024 rotation by pitching well next year.
The other alternative is either one of them show they can’t stay in the rotation. To a certain degree, that is what happened years ago with Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo. Both were forced to the bullpen by a mixture of the Mets then starting pitching depth and their struggles in their first full year in the rotation. Gsellman struggled while Lugo went on to become the best reliever in baseball for a stretch.
Remember, Megill and Peterson are Major League caliber pitchers. It is now incumbent on the Mets to find their best role. With the Edwin Díaz season ending surgery, the sooner we find out one is a reliever the better. Of course, that assumes one or both can’t last in the rotation, which is an unfair presumption. After all, both have had success in their limited chances in a Major League rotation.
Another factor going forward is Verlander’s age. The 40 year old has been a workhorse throughout his career, and it was one of the reasons the Mets acted quickly to sign him after Jacob deGrom signed with the Texas Rangers. Part of his being 40 is he is older and probably needs more rest than he needed 10 or even five years ago.
The innings the Mets need from Verlander are in September and October. As long as they get a fresher and healthier Verlander then, we can count his saving his arm right now as a win. Of course, that assumes he can come back at a reasonable point while the Mets stay afloat with him out of the rotation. Based upon everything, that sounds like a reasonable presumption.
In the end, we have two options. We can first throw our hands up and decry this being the same old Mets. Or, we can acknowledge that while this sucks, this may work out better for the Mets in the long run. You can pick which one you want, but no matter how you look at it, this is a great opportunity for Megill and Peterson, and it may also be for Jose Butto and Joey Lucchesi, who are the next up should any starting pitcher fail.