Noah Syndergaard

Jonathan Lucroy & Jay Bruce Trades Won’t Fix the Mets

Last year, the Mets were coming off an absolutely brutal loss to the San Diego Padres on the eve of the trade deadline. As the team blew a 7-1 lead, it seemed like all hope was lost. 

However, the Mets front office didn’t share the same sense of diapair. They were active on the phones trying to improve a team that was three games behind the Nationals. They were a team who had an extremely weak August schedule. They were a team in the mend with Travis d’ArnaudMichael Cuddyer, and David Wright expected to return from the disabled list. 

It was a good team getting healthy facing a favorable schedule ready for a three game set at home against the first place Nationals. It was behind this backdrop that the Yoenis Cespedes trade happened. 

Seeing Cespedes hobbled out there is a stark reminder that this year is not last year. This is a Mets team that isn’t getting healthy. In fact, they’re falling like flies. Here is a list of the players currently on the disabled list:

  1. David Wright
  2. Lucas Duda
  3. Matt Harvey
  4. Juan Lagares
  5. Jose Reyes
  6. Jim Henderson

This does not include Noah Syndergaard or Steven Matz who both have bone spurs in their pitching elbows that will need to be surgically removed in the offseason. 

This list also does not even include Asdrubal Cabrera who left yesterday’s game with what is initially being described as a strained patellar tendon. He seems as if he’s bound for the disabled list. With Cabrera going down, it will create another hole in not just the lineup, but with the defense. 

With Cespedes’ injury and Lagares’ surgery, the Mets are left scrambling to find a center fielder. They have tried Curtis Granderson out there, and after one game, the Mets saw enough. Against righties, the Mets have tried Michael Conforto in center, and he has held his own. Just recently, the Mets signed Justin Ruggiano, who was playing in AAA before being released by the Rangers.

With Cabrera injured and seemingly bound for the disabled list, it leaves the Mets scrambling to find adequate defenders at the two most important defensive positions. It will also mean Neil Walker, who has hit .234/.316/.343 since May 1st, will be the only starting infielder remaining from the Opening Day Lineup. 

By no means is Walker the only one struggling:

Curtis Granderson

  • 2015 – .259/.364/.457 with 33 doubles, two triples, 26 homers, and 70 RBI
  • 2016 – .234/.326/.431 with 16 doubles, four triples, 16 homers, and 29 RBI

Michael Conforto

  • 2015 – .270/.335/.506 with 14 doubles, nine homers, and 26 RBI
  • 2016 – .225/.303/.419 with 14 doubles, or triple, 10 homers, homers, and 30 RBI

Travis d’Arnaud

  • 2015 – .268/.340/.485 with 14 doubles, one triple, 12 homers, and 42 RBI
  • 2016 – .249/.290/.321 with five doubles, two homers, and 10 RBI

All across the diamond, the Mets are dealing with injuries, under performance, or both. According to Baseball Reference, the Mets have the lowest team WAR at shortstop, third base, and right field among National League teams in the playoff hunt. 

Further exacerbating the Mets struggles is their August schedule. There are the four emotionally charged Subway Series games along with series against the Tigers, Giants, Cardinals, and Marlins. There is s short West Coast trip. The combined record of their opponents is 416-369, which is good for a .530 winning percentage. With this schedule and the state of the Mets roster, things can fall apart quickly. 

In reality, neither Jonathan Lucroy nor Jay Bruce help these problems. They do not solve the defensive gap at short or center. They cannot heal the players on the disabled list. They cannot make the schedule any easier. No, the only thing they can do is to join the Mets and play well. 

However, if the Mets don’t get healthy or start playing better, there’s no point in adding Lucroy or Bruce. They don’t solve the Mets real problems, and they likely don’t put the Mets over the top. 

With that in mind, there’s no sense on buying at the deadline. You’re just purging prospects to help acquire players who will most likely not be difference makers. There’s also no sense to selling because this is a talented team that needs to find that next gear. 

With that in mind, as frustrating as it might be, the Mets best option might be to stand pat. 

Neil Walker Salvages the Season for One Day

Today had the feeling of a death knell to the season. Noah Syndergaard couldn’t put batters away, had an early escalating pitch count, and he blew a 3-1 lead. 

Furthermore, Asdrubal Cabrera had to leave with a knee injury in the first inning adding his name to the ever growing list of the year’s injured players. 

The Mets then fell behind 4-3 as Jerry Blevins had a rare tough outing. Of course, part of that was the genius of Terry Collins walking Josh Thole-esque .239 hitting Tony Wolters to face Carlos Gonzalez, who hit the go-ahead sac fly. Right then and there, it looked like the Mets were going to get swept by the Rockies and fall 3.5 games behind the Marlins in the Wild Card race. 

Then, there was finally a sense of life from a player who has seemed washed up for three months now:

  
 Neil Walker, who has been hitting .235/.316/.343 since May 1st, hit a three run home run off Boone Logan to turn a sure fire 4-3 loss into a 6-3 win. The home run was reminiscent of Wilmer Flores‘ walk off home run that breathed life back into the Mets season. 
It seems like Walker is breaking out of this slump at a time when the Mets desperately need it. During the four game set against the Rockies, Walker was 9-16 with a double, triple, homer, and four RBI. That includes today game with him going 3-4 with four RBI falling a double short of the cycle. 

From there, Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia do what they do and preserved the 6-4 victory. For at least one day, the Mets season seems intact, and we can all dream the Mets can add a difference maker at the trade deadline. 

Game Notes: Kelly Johnson came in for Cabrera. He played third, and Flores took over at short. Johnson and James Loney would score on the Walker home run. 

The Piazza/Seaver Celebration Parallels

On August 11, 1992, the Mets had a day to honor Tom Seaver for being inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.  Considering he was the best pitcher in Mets history, you would think the honor of starting that game would go to Dwight Gooden, who was the only Mets pitcher who would break any of Seaver’s records.  David Cone was another terrific choice given how great a pitcher he was for the Mets.  Bret Saberhagen would have been fitting as he was a two time Cy Young winner and a former World Series MVP.  Even Sid Fernandez could have fit the bill as it was his Game Seven performance that helped prevent Seaver from winning one last ring in 1986.

Instead, it was Eric Hillman, who was making his first ever major league start on a dark and rainy night that drove away most of the fans who should have been there to celebrate with Seaver.  To be fair, that game would’ve been called almost any other night had it not been Seaver’s night.   Between the weather, and who was going to be honored, it was a difficult situation for a young pitcher. Hillman was up to the challenge pitching eight scoreless innings to help defeat the first place Pittsburgh Pirates.

With Monday’s rainout, the Mets will be in a similar position for Mike Piazzas number retirement ceremony.

It was supposed to be Noah Syndergaard.  Who better to celebrate the career of the Mets rock star catcher than to have the Mets rock star starting pitcher?  Who better to honor the power Piazza showed at the plate than the power pitcher who can routinely throw over 100 MPH?  The long haired starting pitcher dominating the opponents should have started the game honoring the long haired dominant hitter.  It was all too perfect to be true.  With the rain, it’s not going to happen.

Instead, the Mets are most likely going to get a spot starter making his first ever major league start similar to what happened with Eric Hillman on Tom Seaver’s night.  It just seems to go that way on a night when the Mets honor their Hall of Famers.

The start could to to Seth Lugo, who has pitched extremely well out of the bullpen in his four appearances this year.  Gabriel Ynoa could be summoned from the minor leagues to make his first ever start as could his Las Vegas 51s teammate Robert Gsellman.  Whoever it turns out to be, they have some large shoes to fill.  No, not Syndergaard’s, the 6’10” Hillman’s.  Whoever the Mets give the chance to make his first ever career start needs to go out there and put up a dominant performance like Hillman’s to allow the fans to celebrate deep into the night.

A Bizarre Split Doubleheader 

You knew it was going to be a strange day when Keith Hernandez showed up during the first end of the doubleheader wearing an Underdog shirt:

  

We would then see Noah Syndergaard give up an unearned run in the second when Syndergaard made an errant throw allowing Yadier Molina to score. The Cardinals scored a run that inning without a ball leaving the infield. Perhaps stranger than that was seeking Jedd Gyorko hit a two run bomb to left the following inning to give the Cardinals a 3-0 lead. For the day, Syndergaard would pitch six innings allowing three runs, two earned, and three walks with eight strikeouts. 

Of course, all of the Mets offense would come off a Rene Rivera two run homer in the fourth. After that hilarity would ensue. 

There was Curtis Granderson of all people throwing out a runner at the plate (with the really throw from Kelly Johnson). It’s bizarre that the Cardinals sent Matt Adams, who just might be slower than James Loney. It’s even stranger when you consider that earlier in the game the human windmill Tim Teufel held Jose Reyes at third when he could’ve scored off a Yoenis Cespedes two out double. 

Speaking of Cespedes, he had quite the juggling act in the outfield in the sixth: 

Then there were the curious decisions like Terry Collins keeping Wilmer Flores on the bench while sending James Loney and Johnson up to bat in the eighth against Cardinals lefty Kevin Siegrist. They weren’t able to muster a rally. 

The Mets would start a rally in the ninth with a Granderson leadoff single off new Cardinals closer Seung-hwan Oh. That rally would end when Granderson tagged up on Cardinals center fielder Tommy Pham after a deep Cespedes fly out:

After a Loney fly out, the Mets lost 3-2. The second game of the doubleheader would be much calmer, but it would still nevertheless be strange. 

For starters, the spark plug of the Mets offense in the game was Alejandro De Aza. De Aza would go 1-1 with a double, a walk with two runs. Even more bizarre is that he would be driven in both times by Asdrubal Cabrera

In the third, Cabrera followed a De Aza double with a double of his own striking an 0 for his last 697,597,475,491 streak (actually, it was 0-32). In the fifth, Cabrera would hit a sac fly to score De Aza from third. 

The other run would score when Loney hit into a fourth inning double play scoring Flores. Flores was on third because he hit a leadoff double, and he moved to third when Randal Grichuk flat out dropped a ball in right field off the bat of Neil Walker. Considering how he’s been playing lately, it’s just about the only way Walker can reach base. He would go 0-2 with a walk on the night. 

These three runs were enough for Bartolo Colon who was terrific tonight after pitching to a 7.36 ERA and allowing batters to hit .338/.386/.662 against him over his last three starts. Naturally, on this night, Colon only allowed one earned on three hits with no walks and eighth strikeouts. Of course, he would out pitch Syndergaard tonight in the Mets 3-1 win. 

Finally, in the sixth inning, things began to calm down. Collins made a curious decision to allow Colon to bat in the sixth with the bases loaded and two outs. Collins eschewed the chance to blow the game open. 

Then in the eighth and ninth, Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia shut down the Cardinals to preserve the win. 

After all that craziness, the Mets and Cardinals split the doubleheader. The end result was nothing changed between them in the Wild Card standings. The Mets stayed a half game up on the Cardinals with the runner game tomorrow. 

Game Notes: Josh Smoker was called up to be the 26th man in the second game of the doubleheader. He would not make an appearance. 

The Three Faces of the Franchise

Every major league team that has been around long enough has three faces to their franchise.  The first is The Immortal player.  He is the player you first think of when you mention a franchise.  The next is the Living Legend.  This player is the one that is revered by young and old.  He is the player that throws out the first pitch at first home game of the World Series.  He’s in the Hall of Fame, and his number is retired.  The last is the best or most popular player on the team.  He is the player that has been traditionally dubbed the Face of the Team.  Here are a few examples:

New York Yankees
Immortal Babe Ruth
Living Legend Derek Jeter
Face of the Team Alex Rodriguez
Boston Red Sox
Immortal Ted Williams
Living Legend Pedro Martinez
Face of the Team David Ortiz
St. Louis Cardinals
Immortal Stan Musial
Living Legend Bob Gibson
Face of the Team Adam Wainwright
Los Angeles Dodgers
Immortal Jackie Robinson
Living Legend Sandy Koufax
Face of the Team Clayton Kershaw

Yesterday, with Mike Piazza‘s formal induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame and with Tom Seaver unable to attend the Hall of Fame ceremony he loves to attend, the Mets now how their own triumvirate.

Not only is Mike Piazza a Hall of Famer who is about to have his number retired by the Mets, he has also become the Mets resident Living Legend.  It’s why he was the former player who threw out the first pitch prior to Game Three of the World Series.  Every big moment for the Mets from here on out is going to prominently feature Mike Piazza much in the same way we have seen through the years with players like Ernie Banks, Stan Musial, Yogi Berra, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, and once upon a time Tom Seaver.

It’s unfortunate to see Seaver unable to travel to attend the ceremony and host his table of 300 game winners, including friend and former teammate Nolan Ryan, from his day like he loved so dearly.  It’s sad that he can’t travel cross-country to throw out the first pitch for any of the World Series games or to sit in the owner’s suite and cheer on The Franchise’s Franchise.  It’s almost a surety that he will be unable to attend Piazza’s Number Retirement Ceremony this weekend.  In some ways, that makes him like Gil Hodges and Casey Stengel – gone but not forgotten.

No one can ever forget Seaver.  He’s the best player to ever put on a Mets uniform.  He’s The Franchise.  He’s quite possibly the greatest right handed pitcher to ever play the game.  He is the pitcher who has received more Hall of Fame votes than anyone in baseball history.  He is an Immortal.  No one, not even Piazza, can ever knock him off that perch.

He is joined by the Living Legend Mike Piazza and the current Face of the Mets Franchise, be it David Wright, Yoenis Cespedes, or Noah Syndergaard to become one of the three all important faces of the Mets franchise.  In that way, the Mets have become an older major league franchise with a history worth celebrating.

Potential Starting Pitching Targets

With Steven Matz taking the loss last night, he fell to 0-4 with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.475 ERA over his last seven starts. In those seven starts, he has been spotted rubbing his elbow in the dugout between innnigsm and he has thrown his slider less frequently.  He has been clearly affected by the bone spurs in his elbow that need to eventually be surgically removed from his elbow.  Matz’s problems highlight the Mets rotation issues which also include Noah Syndergaard‘s dead arm scare, and Matt Harvey having season ending surgery to address his thoracic outlet syndrom.

The options to fill Harvey’s spot in the rotation leave much to be desired.  Logan Verrett currently has a 5.20 ERA as a starter this year.  Both Gabriel Ynoa and Sean Gilmartin have pitched to an ERA over 6.00 for the past few months.  Zack Wheeler, who was initially slated to rejoin the rotation in the beginning of July, has had a number of setbacks and is still throwing bullpen sessions.  Best case scenario, Wheeler is back around mid-August.  That may be too long to wait given the Mets current hole in the rotation and the health issues the Mets other starters are currently experiencing.  Strange as it may sound, the Mets are actually investigating the possibility of adding a starting pitcher at the trade deadline, including but not limited to Jon Niese.  Ideally, the Mets would look to add a back of the rotation starter who would hopefully not cost much in terms of prospects and who could eat up some valuable innings as the Mets continue fighting in this pennant race.  With that in mind, here are some possible trade targets:

Jon Niese – Niese is having a nightmare of a season with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.556 WHIP that got him banished to the bullpen.  Still, over his Mets career, he had a serviceable 3.91 ERA and a 1.361 WHIP while averaging six innings per start.  In the postseason last year, he was moved to the bullpen where he got many valuable outs.

The Rays

Matt Moore – Moore is not the same pitcher who was an All Star and finished in the Top 10 in Cy Young voting.  After his 2014 Tommy John surgery, he has not been the same pitcher.  With this being his first full season back, he is 5-7 with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.298 WHIP.  He is primarily a fastball-change up pitcher with a low to mid nineties fastball and a mid eighties change up.  Over the course of this season, he is averaging a little over six innings per game.  He still has some upside, and he has a $7 million team option and $2.5 million buyout for next year.

Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi is 4-5 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.274 WHIP in 20 starts for the Rays this season.  Part of the issues with Odorizzi is he doesn’t go deep into games averaging under 5.2 innings per start, and the fact that he has a higher career ERA, WHIP, and opponent’s batting average in the second half of the season.  The 26 year old is under team control until 2020.

Drew Smyly – Smyly is another member of an underachieving Rays pitching staff that could be moved at the trade deadline.  Smyly has been dealing with a torn labrum in his pitching shoulder, and he has opted not to have surgery.  He is now in the process of having the worst year of his career going 2-11 with a 5.64 ERA and a 1.358 WHIP while averaging almost six innings per start.

Jeremy Hellickson – Unlike his former teammate Moore, Hellickson, the 2011 Rookie of the Year, never did undergo Tommy John surgery.  The 2017 free agent is putting together a solid season for the Phillies going 6-7 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP while averaging 5.2 innings per start.  These numbers stand to be his best in four years.

The Pending Free Agents

Tyler Chatwood – The 26 year old Chatwood is having a good season with an 8-5 record with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.286 WHIP while averaging six innings per start.  These numbers are all the more impressive when considering the fact that he pitches half of his games at Coors Field, and the fact that this is his first full season after having had Tommy John surgery in 2014.

Andrew Cashner – The pending free agent is having the worst year of this career going 407 with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.478 WHIP averaging under five innings per start while pitching a majority of his games in Petco Park, which could be the best pitcher’s park in the majors.

Jorge De La Rosa – The 35 year old De La Rosa is approaching both free agency and the end of his career.  This year he is 6-6 with a 5.50 ERA and a 1.573 WHIP while averaging five inning per start.  Surprisingly, he is even worse away from Coors Field going 2-4 with a 6.50 ERA and a 1.778 WHIP.

The Angels

Jered Weaver – Once an ace for the Angels, Weaver has seemingly lost it this season.  He has gone from a guy who got guys out with guile, location, and a 90 MPH sinker to a guy who tops out at 84 MPH.  The result is an 8-7 record with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.412 WHIP.

Tim Lineceum – Weaver’s current Angels teammate has also gone from an ace to an also ran.  In his five starts for the Angels, he is 1-3 with a 6.85 ERA and a 2.070 WHIP.

Hector Santiago – Santiago is putting together another average season going 7-4 with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.272 WHIP while averaging a little over five innings per start.  The 28 year old is scheduled to be a free agent after next season.

Matt Shoemaker – Shoemaker is another Angel on a staff of mid to the back of the rotation starters.  This year, Shoemaker is 5-9 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.264 WHIP while averaging almost six innings per start.  He may be the player the Angels are least likely to move as he is under team control until 2021.

Overall, the trade options do not stand to be much better than the internal options.  This may be one of the reasons why the Mets are prioritizing adding pieces to the bullpen over adding another starting pitcher at the trade deadline.

Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsmerizedonline.com 

Mets Potential Bullpen Targets

Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia have combined to hold the lead in 33 of 34 chances in which they have been given a lead in the eighth inning or later.  Jerry Blevins, the purported LOOGY, has actually held right-handed batters to a lower batting average while pitching to a 2.08 ERA.  Hansel Robles has been a veritable Swiss Army knife in the bullpen.  One day, he’s pitching 3.2 innings to help preserve the bullpen after a starter gets knocked out a game early.  The next, he’s coming into the game to get the Mets out of a no out bases loaded situation unscathed.  With these arms, the Mets have a dominating bullpen.

However, behind these arms is a question mark.  Jim Henderson has started to pitch well in his rehab assignment.  However, he has been a different pitcher since his ill advised April 13th appearance.  Seth Lugo has pitched six scoreless innings over three appearances.  However, each of these appearances were in low pressure situations, and Terry Collins does not appear to trust him enough to try him in a pressure situation.  Erik Goeddel entered the season with a 2.48 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and a 9.0 K/9, but he has struggled this year pitching to a 4.50 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, and an 8.4 K/9.  There remains intriguing options in the minors like Josh Edgin, Josh Smoker, and Paul Sewald.  Between this group, the Mets could piece together a fine bullpen.  However, as the Mets are in heat for playoff spot, they do not want to take any chances.

The Mets are even more committed to finding that one bullpen piece considering how the team now has some question marks in the rotation with Matt Harvey‘s season ending surgery, Steven Matz‘s bone spurs, and Noah Syndergaard‘s dead arm.  According to Marc Carig, the Mets lost out on Kevin Jepsen and believe the pricetag for Brewers closer Jeremy Jeffress will be too high.  Further hampering the Mets pursuit are the trades the team has made over the past year and a half.  Still, they are looking to preferably add a reliever who can lock down the seventh inning thereby taking some stress off their starting pitchers.  With that in mind, here are some options the Mets could pursue:

Jeremy Jeffress – As noted the pricetag should be high as Jeffress has the Brewers closer has recorded 23 saves with a 2.35 ERA and a 3.39 WHIP.  He is also under team control until 2020.

John Axford – Axford has some ugly numbers this year with a 5.21 ERA and a 1.579 WHIP for the last place Oakland Athletics.  However, it should be noted that his velocity is still there and he still has the same bite on his curveball.  A new voice and a pennant race could rejuvenate him.  It should also be noted in the postseason, Axford has a 1.42 ERA, 1.026 WHIP, and a 12.8 K/9.

Brad Hand – Like many relievers, Hand has seemingly figured things out in San Diego after having mostly struggled in his first five years with the Marlins.  He has a 2.94 ERA and a 1.269 WHIP this year as opposed to the 4.71 ERA and 1.424 WHIP he had with the Marlins.  Part of the reason for his success is his increased use of his slider which is a pitch that has generated a high percentage of swings and misses.  Hand does profile as the type of pitcher Dan Warthen has had success with during his tenure with the Mets.

Ryan Buchter – The 29 year old career minor leaguer and Sewell, New Jersey native has taken full advantage of his first read shot in the majors with a 2.41 ERA, a 1.098 WHIP, and a 12.5 K/9 in 44 appearances.  Like what Antonio Bastardo was supposed to be, he is a cross-over lefty.  Like his teammate Hand, he relies upon his fastball and slider to get outs.  However, unlike Hand, he throws it with greater velocity with a 94 MPH fastball and an 87 MPH slider.  Again, he is the type of pitcher that typically fairs well under Dan Warthen’s tutelage.

Chris Withrow – In his first season post-Tommy John, Withrow has a 3.38 ERA and a 1.313 WHIP in 33 appearances for the woeful Atlanta Braves.  He is a Mets kind of pitcher as he is a power pitcher out the bullpen that has a mid nineties fastball and a high eighties slider.  He may not come cheap as he is under team control until 2020, and the Braves consider him their future closer.

Tyler Clippard – The main thing that will prevent Clippard from becoming a Met is his contract.  He is in the first year of a two year $12.25 million contract that will pay him $6.15 million next year.  Further diminishing the chances of a reunion is the fact that Clippard is having a career worst season with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.234 WHIP.  Like with Axford, the much cheaper option, the Mets would be hoping to catch lightning in a bottle.  Like with Jose Reyes, the Mets would be hoping he is energized by putting on a Mets uniform again.

Adding one or more of these players should improve the Mets bullpen.  Regardless of whether or not the team adds one of these pitchers, or somebody else all together, they need Familia, Reed, Blevins, and Robles to continue pitching well out of the pen.  They also need Bastardo to figure things out sooner rather than later as it is his struggles that are precipitating this bullpen search. 

That Was a Great Game

That was just a good baseball game. It featured a pitcher’s duel between the Cubs ace Jake Arrieta and one of the Mets aces Noah Syndergaard

The Cubs struck first in the third when Syndergaard threw a wild pitch, which probably should have been smothered by Rene Rivera who made a backhand stab at the ball, allowing Willson Contreras to score. The Cubs were primed to score again in the following inning. Arrieta led off with a double, and he tried to score on a Tommy La Stella single. However, he would be mowed down by the new right fielder Michael Conforto:

As the replay would show, Rivera made a great tag. 

Syndergaard gutted his way through 5.2 innings throwing 105 pitches. He allowed seven hits, one unearned run, and two walks. He would strike out eight batters including his 300th career strike out. Jerry Blevins took over and would combine with Hansel Robles (two innings), and Jeurys Familia (33rd save) to win a 2-1 game. 

The loss was no fault of Arrieta, who was terrific. He pitched seven innings, one run, and one walk with eight strikeouts. For a while, it appeared like the Mets wouldn’t score that run, and that the Mets would lose 1-0. Then Jose Reyes did what he used to do best, what he was brought back to do. He hit his 100th triple as a Met and gave the Mets a chance to build a run off his speed. 

He would score off a Curtis Granderson sacrifice fly. The Mets tried to build another rally in the seventh. There were runners on first and second and Blevins was due up. For some reason, Terry Collins went to Alejandro De Aza instead of Kelly Johnson. Apparently, Collins was the only person who thought De Aza would come through in that spot. He didn’t. 

In the ninth, there would be no De Aza or Arrieta standing in the Mets way. Neil Walker hit into a fielder’s choice after a James Loney leadoff single. Initially, it was ruled a double play, but replay would overturn the call. Walker was safe, and it wasn’t particularly close. Walker moved to second on an Asdrubal Cabrera single. After a Conforto strikeout, it appeared the Mets would fail to score a runner in scoring position again. 

Instead, Rivera would hit a bloop single off Pedro Strop scoring Walker making it a 2-1 game. If that was the end of the game, it would have been a terrific game. However, it was what happened in the bottom of the ninth that made this a great game. 

Familia walked Addison Russell and Miguel Montero to start the inning. Javier Baez then laid down a terrific bunt that he beat out. It was bases loaded with no outs. That’s a problem for mere mortal closers. It wasn’t an issue for Familia and his bowling ball sinker. 

With the infield drawn-in, Matt Szczur to hit a ground ball to Loney, who threw out Russell at home. That brought up Kris Bryant to the plate, who could be the most dangerous hitter in the Cubs. Familia got him to ground into a game ending 5-4-3 double play. 

It was a great instinctive move for new third baseman Reyes to go did the double play instead of the force out, and it was an incredible turn by Walker, who took a slightly offline throw with the runner bearing down on him to get the last out of the game at first. 

This was easily the most exciting game of the year, and it was a great win. 

Game Notes: Granderson started in center, and he was shaky out there. It is supposed to be temporary until Conforto is ready to take over. In his first full game back from AAA, Conforto was 0-3 with a walk and two strikeouts. Yoenis Cespedes really looked hobbled out there. 

Dee Gordon’s Single Could Help Put the Marlins Into a Postseason He’s Ineligible to Play

When you have a game started by Jose Fernandez and Noah Syndergaard, you can expect a pitcher’s duel, and the game on April 12, 2016 did not disappoint. Fernandez would pitch five shutout innings allowing only three hits and one run while striking out five. Syndergaard was better lasting seven innings allowing one run while striking out 12. With the game deadlocked at one apiece, it officially became a battle of the bullpens in the eighth innings. The Mets sent Jim Henderson to the mound to face the Marlins leadoff hitter Dee Gordon.

It was an epic 16 pitch battle that eventually saw Gordon hit an opposite field single to start the game winning rally. He would eventually come around to score on a Martin Prado sacrifice fly off of Jerry Blevins. As it would turn out Gordon played that game while he was in the midst of appealing an 80 game suspension for his use of exogenous testosterone and clostebol. About two weeks later, he would drop his appeal begin serving his steroids suspension.

It should be noted that through the first 92 games of the season, this game is the one game that separates the Mets and the Marlins in the standings. This is the one game that stands as the difference between the Mets being in playoff position and being on the outside looking in.

It’s ironic when you think about it. Pursuant to Major League Baseball’s new steroid policy, players who test positive for banned PED substances are barred from postseason play. As the MLBPA Union President Tony Clark stated, the players themselves wanted to make sure “a player is not coming back and affecting a change in the postseason as a result of the decision that particular player made earlier in the year.” (ESPN). It is quite understandable why baseball would not want a dirty player to possibly be the difference between a team winning or losing a World Series. No one wants to question if the World Series was acquired through ill gotten means like the Athletics with Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire, the Yankees with Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte, the Red Sox with Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, or J.C. Romero, who got big out after big out en route to the Phillies winning the 2008 World Series.

Still, the way the rules are set up, the very same player can have a profound impact on whether or not that team even makes the postseason. We see that Gordon had an at bat that helps serve to separates the Mets and the Marlins in the standings. His suspension is scheduled to come to an end on July 28th. At that point, there will be 61 more games left on the schedule that Gordon can have a profound impact. Sixty-one more games in which he will be able to be the difference between winning and lose, between making the postseason or not. He can be the difference between making the postseason or not despite his being disqualified from making the postseason.

Even more ponderous is the fact that Gordon is going to play in his first minor league game tonight for the New Orleans Zephyrs. He’s playing for a AAA team despite being suspended from playing major league baseball for taking PEDs. Of course, baseball wants to have a player like Gordon banned from postseason play, but they’ll permit him to not only affect a pennant race, but also be in the best possible position to affect that pennant race once the suspension is over.

This isn’t to say that Gordon should forever be banned from playing baseball again. Players make mistakes. There can be false positives. No one wants to see a player forever lose their livelihood under these circumstances. However, it is contradictory for baseball to have a policy barring a player like Gordon from the postseason because they want to preserve the sanctity of that World Series title while also allowing Gordon to play games in that very same seasons thereby having an impact upon which teams do or do not qualify to play in that very same postseason.

Ultimately, if baseball’s goal is to preserve the sanctity of the World Series, the solution might be that if a player tests positive in a season, they are barred from playing in the regular season once the appeal process has been exhausted so that they tainted player will have no further impact upon the pennant race. If the player is not eligible for the postseason, that same player should have no impact upon which teams can play in the postseason. The player can still make their money once the suspension is over, and they can play games in the minors, but they will not be eligible to return to the majors until each and every team has clinched a postseason berth.

This is just one possible answer to the conundrum. It might be one that neither the owners or the players accept for various and sundry reasons. Hopefully, whatever it is, all of baseball needs to figure out a solution that makes sense for everyone as no one wants to be able to say that the difference between the Mets and Marlins in the 2016 season was a tainted player starting a game winning rally that proved to be the one game difference in the standings.

 

Mets Most Popular Pitcher

Back in the 1980s, there was no doubt that Dwight Gooden was the most popular starting pitcher on the team.  There was just a different buzz when he was on the mound as opposed to when Ron Darling, Bob Ojeda, or Sid Fernandez took the mound.  The reason was that Gooden had unparalleled and electric stuff.  As a result, it seemed Gooden was always pitching before a sellout crowd at Shea.  It didn’t matter if it was a 10:00 A.M. game on a Monday against the Flushing Little League team, Shea Stadium would be sold out to see him pitch.  Without a doubt, Gooden was a fan favorite.

As we saw with Gooden, attendance is a good measure to determine who the Mets fans favorite pitcher is.  It is a measure which shows who the fans will pay to go see pitch.  So far this season, the Mets have played 46 home games drawing 1,582,503 fans, which averages out to 34,402 fans per game.  On average, Mets fans have paid to see Jacob deGrom over any other Mets pitcher this season:

Average Differential
deGrom 38,107 3,704
Syndergaard 35,582 1,180
Harvey 34,925 523
Colon 33,685 -717
Matz 30,240 -4,162

To be fair, there are a number of factors that drives attendance other than the night’s starting pitcher.  For example, fans are more apt to attend games over the weekend and on holidays (Memorial Day and the Fourth of July).  For the purposes of this analysis, weekend games are classified as Friday through Sunday games.  Over the course of the first 46 home games, the Mets have played 23 weekday games and 23 weekend and holiday games. In the Mets 23 home weekend and holiday games, the Mets have averaged 38,060 fans per game as opposed to 30,745 fans during the Mets 23 weekday games.  Looking at weekend games, deGrom is still the pitcher that Mets fans are more likely to pay to see pitch:

Average Differential
deGrom 41,248 3,188
Syndergaard 38,529 469
Harvey 36,536 -1,524
Colon 36,297 -1,763
Matz 35,979 -2,081

With weekday games, the ones that take a little more effort to attend, we begin to see a shift away from deGrom.  In fact, fans have come out to see Matt Harvey more than any other pitcher on weekday games:

Average Differential
Harvey 32,777 2,032
Syndergaard 32,635 1,890
Colon 31,944 1,199
deGrom 31,825 1,080
Matz 26,414 -4,332

There are other factors to keep into consideration as well.  For example, one driving force behind attendance has been the Mets games against some of the better teams in baseball.  In the Mets 30 home games against teams with a record over .500, the Mets average attendance is 35,415 per game.  As we have already seen in some of the above analyses, more fans come out to see deGrom pitch against the better teams in baseball than any other Mets starter:

Average Differential
deGrom 36,266 852
Harvey 36,086 671
Syndergaard 35,675 260
Colon 35,564 149
Matz 33,707 -1,708

If teams that are over .500 are going to be of interest, it should come as no surprise that the Mets home games agains their 2015 postseason opponents have also driven attendance.  In the Mets nine home games against their postseason rivals, the Mets average attendance has been 39,432.  It should be noted that Harvey has not pitched against any of those opponents, nor will he with his season ending surgery.  Furthermore, Steven Matz only made one start against such an opponent.  With those factors in place, the starting pitcher the Mets fans paid most to see in the rematch games was Bartolo Colon:

Average Differential
Colon 41,187 1,755
Matz 40,122 690
deGrom 38,828 -604
Syndergaard 37,850 -1,582

Astoundingly, the Mets attendance against their NL East opponents has been poor.  While the Mets have averaged 34,042 fans per game through the first 46 games of the season, they are only drawing an average of 33,044 fans for NL East opponents.  Much of that is attributable to how bad the Braves and Phillies are.  The Marlins aren’t exactly driving fans to the park either despite the Mets being in a Wild Card race with them.  With that in mind, the fans want to see deGrom pitch against NL East opponents more than any other pitcher:

Average Differential
deGrom 37,289 4,244
Harvey 34,931 1,887
Syndergaard 33,551 507
Matz 30,698 -2,346
Colon 30,653 -2,391

Looking at the attendance figures, the Mets have had 16 such games, and they are only drawing 32,504 fans per game.  With respect to the other subset of games, this is the group the fans want to see the least.  Generally speaking, there needs to be an incentive for the fans to go to the ballpark.  Looking at the attendance figures more in depth, deGrom taking the mound seems to be an incentive for the fans to go out and see the Mets play a bad baseball team:

Average Differential
deGrom 41,788 9,284
Syndergaard 35,212 2,708
Harvey 34,055 1,551
Colon 29,301 -3,203
Matz 25,039 -7,465

Weighing each of these factors, the attendance figures suggest that Jacob deGrom is the Mets fans favorite starting pitcher with Noah Syndergaard not too far behind. These numbers shouldn’t be that surprising as deGrom and Syndergaard have been the Mets two best pitchers all year, and will likely be the starters for Game One and Game Two of this year’s NLDS.