Jeremy Hefner
The New York Mets slipped the signing of Max Scherzer in under the wire before the owners voted unanimously for a lockout. That means they officially can’t pursue free agents and can’t make trades (again, not officially), so they now need to turn their attention elsewhere.
That’s probably a good thing for this team because they need a manager. Really, aside from having Jeremy Hefner as pitching coach, they need to assemble an entire coaching staff.
It seems the early odds-on favorite is Brad Ausmus. Sandy Alderson wanted to hire him previously. Billy Eppler did hire him before he was told to fire him. It’s assumed Steve Cohen doesn’t want a first time manager.
The popular choice seems to be Buck Showalter, but it’s hard to see the fit. Alderson wants to script and control managers, and Showalter isn’t that guy. Also, Eppler fired Mike Scioscia, who was very much cut from the same cloth as Showalter.
There are bound to be many names we haven’t considered. After all, that’s what we saw with the front office search.
While it’ll probably never happen, it’ll be great to see Willie Randolph‘s name in the mix. We know he can handle New York, and he has unfinished business here. It would be great to see him get another chance.
Overall, we don’t know who the Mets are targeting. What we do know is the players are locked out, and they probably will be for some time. With that being the case, the Mets are probably going to go full bore trying to hire a new manager.
As previously noted, Steven Matz has defined himself as the old crafty lefty. He’s a back end of the rotation starter who pitches to contact.
As such, he’s going to succeed or fail largely based on the defense behind him. Considering the New York Mets defense behind him was a sick joke, he faltered.
It was so bad, he went to a bad defensive Toronto Blue Jays team, and it seemed like he was a completely different pitcher. Truth be told, the bad defense is a significant improvement over incompetent defense, and so, he thrived.
This is exactly why St. Louis was the prefect landing spot for Matz. His four year $44 million deal with the Cardinals benefits him and that team.
This past year the Cardinals were the first team to boast five Gold Glovers in Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman, Tyler O’Neil, and Harrison Bader. Notably, two-thirds of the Cardinals outfield was golden.
Remember, Matz is a pitcher who yields batted balls in the air roughly 55% of the time. The Cardinals 29 DRS in the outfield helps him immensely.
Fact is, the Cardinals have long been a defense forward thinking organization. Their entire team had an 81 DRS, good for second best in the majors.
Combine this with Mike Maddux being one of the best pitching coaches in the game, and you have the absolute best place for Matz. There was literally no better spot, and he’s going to thrive there unlike anywhere else.
That’s not to say he wouldn’t have thrived with the Mets. We know he can because we saw it. If he came back to the Mets to work with Jeremy Hefner, their vastly developing and improving analytics department, and their improved defense, Matz would’ve done well.
Matz just wouldn’t have done as well with the Mets as he will with the Cardinals. Truth be told, Matz needed a better situation, and the Mets needed a better pitcher. If the Mets do what they need to do this offseason, this is best for all involved.
The other day the New York Mets made the smart decision to retain Jeremy Hefner as their pitching coach. It was a move necessary because Hefner was going to be a free agent at the end of the month, and the team needed to act quickly to make sure they retained a coach respected by the Mets pitching staff.
The problem with this decision is it seemed a little out of order. Typically speaking, you do not hire or retain a pitching coach without hiring a manager. To wit, you don’t hire a manager without having general manager and president of baseball operations in place. And yet, that’s exactly where the Mets find themselves.
The Mets seem to be at a bad spot in their search. Their pie in the sky choices in Billy Beane, Theo Epstein, and David Stearns will not be joining the organization. Unfortunately, they’re striking out at the second level and extremely qualified choices like Matt Arnold, Peter Bendix, and Scott Harris. This is far from an exhaustive list. Really, what seems exhaustive is how many times the Mets have been unable to fill this role for well over a year now.
We’re now at the point of the sensational. For example, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News published an article indicated Mets owner Steve Cohen is relying upon his employees at Point72 as well as former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to lead the search for the new president of baseball operations. Honestly, this doesn’t pass the sniff test considering Cohen’s background, but by the same token, we can expect to see more of the same until the position is filled.
That said, there is a bigger issue here. There are certain actions which need to be undertaken in short order, and it appears those decisions will need to be made before the new POBO is hired. Michael Conforto and Noah Syndergaard are free agents, and the team not only has to decide if they want to extend the qualifying offer, but they also need to see if they want to re-sign them. Marcus Stroman cannot be offered the qualifying offer, but the team does need to figure out if they want to keep him (they should).
This is a team who needs to fill vacancies at third base, and they need to complete their rotation. With Jeurys Familia and Aaron Loup being free agents, they need to build the bullpen. The team needs another outfielder, and they need to see if they are going to keep Javier Baez. There really is just too much to do for the Mets to wait for a new POBO.
Yes, you want a POBO making these decisions, but you can’t sit around and not make key organizational decisions until that person is hired. There is no sense not permitting the 2022 Mets to be as good as they can possibly be because they didn’t hire a POBO.
There is far too much at stake this offseason. Sitting around and doing nothing means the Mets will remain third best in the division, and in all likelihood, it puts them in a position where they are forced to rebuild. The problem is what’s here is a solid enough core to win a World Series. The Mets cannot sit on their hands and wait. Like it or not, Sandy Alderson has to take reins and operate as the POBO until one is hired.
No, it’s not what Mets fans necessarily wanted to hear, but it’s the truth of the matter. The sad, frustrating, and irritating truth.
You’d be hard pressed to argue Aaron Loup wasn’t the best reliever in baseball in 2021. Over 65 appearances, he was 6-0 with a 0.95 ERA, 0.935 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9, and a 9.1 K/9. Looking at advanced stats, he had a 422 ERA+, 2.45 FIP, and a 2.8 WAR.
His ERA was the best among all relievers, and that was backed up by his FIP being the eighth best. Perhaps more importantly, Loup backed up an impressive 2020 campaign which saw him finally learn how to handle right-handed batters effectively.
In 2020, Loup had what was then a career best year. Part of that was limiting right-handed batters to a .192/.246/.423 batting line. There was reason for skepticism with right-handed batters hitting .264/.332/.424 off of him in his career up to that point. Well, in 2021, Loup proved the improvement was real limiting right-handed batters to a .211/.290/.257 batting line.
This is a huge development. This means Loup is no longer just a LOOGY. No, Loup is an effective late inning reliever. That puts his value off the charts in an era where pitchers face a three batter minimum. Unless you get the opportunity to bring in a left-handed reliever with two outs, you need a reliever who can at least hold their own against right-handed batters. That’s easier said that done, and it’s all the more complicated when you’re trying to get innings from a pitching staff over a 162 game season.
The Mets were quite lucky getting Loup for just $3 million in 2021. Obviously, even with Loup turning 34 at the end of the year, he is going to get a raise and a multi-year deal. Obviously, he has more than earned it. It should also be obvious the Mets who are still short in the bullpen need him, and it may also behoove Loup to stick with Jeremy Hefner, who helped him continue his progress as a two way reliever. On that front, Loup has said he wants to return to the Mets.
In many ways, that just puts the ball in the Mets court. The season has been over for over a week, and Loup’s comments were well over a month ago. Still, there has been no reports of any news on a Loup deal. The longer this goes on, the more there is the risk Loup actually hits free agency at the end of the month and has a team blow him out of the water with a deal the Mets would not be willing to match.
Yes, there are a lot of pressing matters with the Mets. They are searching for a new president of baseball operations. They need to make determinations on making qualifying offers for Michael Conforto and Noah Syndergaard. They are apparently trying to keep Luis Rojas in the organization. There is that and so much more.
However, as we have seen with Rojas and much of the coaching staff being dismissed, there are some things which absolutely need to be done now. Considering the state of the bullpen, his performance, and his desire to return, re-signing Loup is one of those things. Keeping him in the fold makes the job of the new president of baseball operations, whoever that will be, much easier when that hiring is official. It is long past time this deal gets done to allow the Mets to focus on other issues.
Mets need to re-sign Aaron Loup now.
In what might’ve been his last start of the season, Chris Flexen picked up his 14th win of the year. Now, there are better ways to adjudge pitchers, but those 14 wins is good for fifth best in all of baseball.
Overall, he had a good year. In 30 starts, he was 14-6 with a 3.67 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, and a 6.4 K/9. He averaged 5.2 innings per start with a 114 ERA+ and a 3.82 FIP.
Overall, Flexen had a very good year, and he appears poised to build on this. With his being under team control through 2026, the Seattle Mariners have a solid rotation arm as they emerge from this rebuild.
The Mariners also have a closer. Paul Sewald has been a great closer for the Mariners. In 58 appearances, he is 9-3 with 11 saves, a 2.83 ERA, 1.011 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, and a 14.6 K/9.
Flexen and Sewald are a big reason why the Mariners are in the postseason picture. Frankly, they are two pitchers who would help any of the 30 Major League teams make the postseason.
The Mariners were smart to pounce on the opportunity to sign them. They look like geniuses for taking former low round picks and got the most out of their talent.
The Mets? Well, again, they look bad here.
The Mets had Flexen and Sewald, and they just gave them away for nothing. They sent Flexen to Korea. Sewald was a straight DFA making him a free agent.
Flexen was unnecessarily rushed to the majors after just seven Double-A starts. He was bounced between the minors and majors and starting and relieving. He’d make an emergency relief appearance not long after a start and then not pitch for nearly two weeks.
Unlike Flexen, Sewald had occasional flashes of brilliance. That was his downfall in the Terry Collins ride the hot hand guide to managing.
One day, he’d be in a pressure spot. In another, he’d pitch three innings in long relief. He’d pitch multiple days in a row and then struggle. Then, he’d be punished and benched.
Mostly due to their usage and how their development wasn’t prioritized, Flexen and Sewald never had a chance with the Mets. No one could really succeed with how they were treated, and as a result, they failed.
Notably, this season especially, Mets pitchers are thriving elsewhere. Steven Matz is also having a good year. While his struggles were different in nature, they were similarly something which could’ve been rectified with the Mets.
You see, far too often, people want to brush players succeeding elsewhere as they couldn’t handle New York. Certainly, this is something which does occur, but it happens far less frequently than people believe.
This isn’t can succeed in New York. It’s can’t succeed with the Mets. That’s a Mets problem and not a player problem.
Some of the culprits are gone from the organization. Jeremy Hefner appears well poised to put the Mets in position to not allow these mistakes to happen again.
As the Mets organization continues to overturn and build, they need an eye towards how to build the best possible organization for players to thrive. Part of that is adapting new practices learned from other places.
Seeing Flexen and Sewald, it’s also taking a look at the Mets previous regime. They need to learn how the Mets were so successful locating these overlooked talents and getting them to the majors. They also need to see how they can make sure they have this success in Flushing.
Back in 2006, the New York Mets were in first place, but they were running out of starting pitchers. As a result, they called up John Maine.
Maine was a hard throwing right-handed pitcher who never quite looked ready for the majors, at least he didn’t in Baltimore. However, with Rick Peterson and Willie Randolph, something clicked.
Maine was able to use his fastball and slider to earn a permanent spot in the Mets rotation. Maine began to really force the issue at the end of his July 8 start.
Maine had allowed a go-ahead homer in the sixth before retiring the final two batters of the inning. That started a stretch of 26 innings. By that time, a Mets team looking to add a starter felt comfortable balking at the steep prices, and of course, they had to pivot due to Duaner Sanchez’s cab ride.
Maine would have a strong 2006 season going 6-5 with a 3.60 ERA, 122 ERA+, 1.113 WHIP, and a 7.1 K/9.
What ensued was a crazy postseason where he was an emergency replacement for an injured Orlando Hernandez right before Game 1 of the NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Maine was terrific that postseason including his picking up a win in Game 6 of the NLCS.
What Maine did that season is difficult to emulate, but as previously noted, Megill is emulating that right now. We saw another sign in his last start where he went toe-to-toe with Brandon Woodruff over five innings.
Like Maine in 2006, Megill is only in the majors due to injuries, and he may be here to stay because of them. Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard have yet to pitch this season, and their time tables keep getting pushed back.
Joey Lucchesi had season ending Tommy John surgery. Jordan Yamamoto is on the 60 day IL. David Peterson has hit the IL. The end result has been Megill rushed to the majors and getting his opportunity, and the Mets suddenly and somewhat unexpectedly being in a position where they’ll need to look to add a starter at the trade deadline.
With every start, Megill is alleviating those concerns. Working with Jeremy Hefner and Luis Rojas, he’s taken his game to another level. Working predominantly with his fastball and slider, he increasingly looks like a Major League starter.
So far, he’s made three starts. He hasn’t registered a decision yet, but he has improved with each start. He has a 104 ERA+ and a very impressive 11.9 K/9. That’s even with him walking a couple of batters more than you’d like . . . much like Maine.
With his poise, repertoire, demeanor, and this coaching staff, there’s no reason to believe Megill won’t continue to improve. With each successive start, he’ll make the case he not only should be a part of this rotation, but he can be a part of a World Series contending team.
Again, that’s where the Mets were in 2006. John Maine gave them some comfort they could address other needs because Maine stabilized the rotation. When the pitchers didn’t heal like the Mets had hoped, and others pitchers got injured, Maine had a strong postseason giving the Mets every opportunity to win the pennant.
Megill is showing he can be that type of pitcher. He can be the stopgap. He can be the pitcher who convinces the Mets they don’t need to add pitching at the deadline. He can have a real impact this postseason.
One of the better things the New York Mets did for the 2021 season was to have a second season with the Tom Seaver patch. While it was worn in memorium in 2020, this year, it was to celebrate his life and accomplishments.
The Mets have so far done well to honor Seaver. With his 41 on their right arms, the Mets pitching staff leads the majors in ERA and FIP. Put another way, when emblazoned with the best on their right arms, they’ve been the best staff in the league.
Of course, that all starts with Jacob deGrom. Not only is deGrom the best pitcher in baseball, like Seaver once was, but he’s also challenging many of Seaver’s records.
Certainly, part of what the Mets are doing can be attributed to the excellent staff they’ve assembled. Moreover, Luis Rojas, Jeremy Hefner, and Jeremy Accardo have done an amazing job, which deserves all the accolades and superlatives you can give them.
Still, there’s some magic with Seaver’s number on the jerseys. There’s also something to be said for The Franchise to be a part of the Mets uniform. After all, there’s no rule which states you can’t forever honor a player like this.
Overall, Seaver is the Mets, and he always will be that. He’s arguably more important to the Mets than any player is to any franchise. He should be recognized and honored as such with his number forever a part of the Mets jerseys.
Objectively speaking, David Peterson is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Among pitchers with at least 40.0 IP, he has the fifth worst ERA and 14th worst FIP.
The biggest trouble with Peterson right now is he seems to be regressing and showing little signs of coming out of this. Since that gem against the Tampa Bay Rays, he’s made four starts going 0-2 with a 9.88 ERA.
He’s walked eight and struck out 12 over 13.2 innings. That’s 3.1 innings per start. That’s what happens when batters have hit .356/.441/.644 against him. Keep in mind, this is in a year where offense is at historic lows.
Peterson’s Baseball Savant page is a disaster. He’s not generating spin on his pitches, he’s not fooling anyone, his control is poor, and batters are hitting him hard. As many have pointed out, the biggest issue is his release points.
The Visualization portion of Baseball Savant backs that up saying Peterson “tends to have very erratic release points on his pitches.”
It may very well be a matter of fixing that to permit Peterson to be the pitcher the Mets think Peterson could be. From the flashes we’ve seen, this could be a very good starter.
However, he’s not that, and with each start, he gets further from being that. At this point, we should remember Peterson had zero Triple-A starts, only made 24 Double-A starts, and he was really pressed into action last year due to the pandemic with Brodie Van Wagenen’s recklessness with the Mets pitching depth.
While some believed Peterson had a good year last year, it’s important to remember it was just 10 appearances. Also, more advanced numbers like FIP indicated Peterson was due for a significant regression.
Now, you can understand wanting Peterson to work with Jeremy Hefner. After all, by and large, Hefner has seemingly done terrific work with this Mets pitching staff. That said, for whatever reason, it’s just not clicking with Peterson right now.
The other counter-argument is the Mets don’t really have a viable starter in Triple-A to take his place. On the most obvious replacement, Thomas Szapucki, his control issues are correctly demoted.
Of course, the rebuttal is why does Peterson get to continuously falter without giving Szapucki a shot to get the benefit of working with Hefner. More than that, Peterson isn’t giving you starter innings.
On the season, he’s given the Mets 4.1 innings per start. Since May 1, that number is down to 3.2 innings. Over his last two starts, he’s pitched a total of 3.0 innings.
Every Peterson start is effectively a bullpen game. With that being the case, it would be better to call-up Sean Reid-Foley, who has thrived with the Mets in 2.0 – 3.0 inning stretches. Really, at this point, it’s inarguable Reid-Foley for 2.0+ innings is far superior to whatever Peterson is providing.
In the end, this is how you develop Mike Pelfrey 2.0. You rush a pitcher who isn’t ready to the majors. You stubbornly keep him there despite the results indicating he should be sent down. The next part is you call him a bust while completely ignoring all you did to prevent him from realizing his potential.
The Mets need to stop the stubbornness and nonsense. Peterson isn’t and wasn’t ready. He needs time. Give it to him and be ready to maybe call him up later in the season or next year.
The New York Mets had a chance to put further distance between themselves and the rest of the NL East. Instead, they lost a tough series:
1. Of course, Jordan Yamamoto got hurt because there can’t be a Mets game without an injury.
2. The same fans who wanted Joey Lucchesi pitch the fifth are the same ones who wanted everyone warming when David Peterson last pitched.
3. Johneshwy Fargas belongs.
4. If you wanted proof Baseball is a cruel sport, look no further than Jake Hager being designated for assignment the day after celebrating his first MLB hit.
5. Marcus Stroman cheering on Miguel Castro after Castro blew Stroman’s win speaks volumes about Stroman as a person and teammate.
6. At this rate, and after his strong rehab start, Noah Syndergaard may be the first person back from the IL. Okay, it’s really going to be Jacob deGrom, but you get the point.
7. Tomas Nido gave an inch in this series with the dropped ball, but James McCann again showed no reason why he should play over Nido right now.
8. The Mets are really banged up, but there has to be better options available than Brandon Drury and Cameron Maybin . . . right?
9. Jonathan Villar has been abysmal of late.
10. There’s literally no point in complaining about the lineups right now because there are zero good choices to put out there.
11. Dominic Smith really is a terrific defensive first baseman. Hopefully, his getting time where he’s most comfortable can get him swinging better.
12. Well, except for clutch situations. He’s as good as gold in those situations right now.
13. With Robert Gsellman and Sean Reid-Foley, the Mets have been getting phenomenal performances from the long men in the bullpen.
14. Really, the bullpen has been great from top to bottom. You just have to wonder how much longer they can withstand this usage rate.
15. Luis Rojas and Jeremy Hefner aren’t getting nearly enough credit.
16. Mets need more from Francisco Lindor. They’ll get it eventually. Until that time, just enjoy the great defense and the hugs.
17. The game winning hit was fun and all, but Khalil Lee is completely and utterly overmatched at the plate right now.
18. It’s awesome to see MSG rocking for Knicks playoff basketball. It’s been so desperately missed.
19. The last time the Knicks and Mets made the playoffs in the same year was 2000 when the Mets lost the World Series, and the Knicks lost to the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals.
20. The Colorado Rockies are coming to Citi Field at a time the Mets weakened roster needs a truly putrid team they can beat.