Jeff McNeil
When discussing the 2021 roster, we continue to wonder what the Mets will do at third, left, and center. Part of the rationale there is the overriding assumption Jeff McNeil will only play second.
This isn’t just the Mets furthering the talking point of 2018 that McNeil is only a second baseman. Really, it’s not that at all. Instead, it’s just finding a position for McNeil and a replacement for Robinson Cano.
That said, sticking McNeil at second is reaching the pathological. It’s at the point where many are suggesting Luis Guillorme is a possible option at third. Not second where he is great, but third.
Having McNeil on the roster is an absolute gift, and just pigeonholing him to second is baseball malpractice. Remember, not only can McNeil play multiple positions, but in his career, he has a positive DRS at all four positions he has played at the MLB level (2B, 3B, LF, RF).
Yes, you absolutely can play McNeil everyday at second. However, it is arguably his worst position. Even with his early season struggles there last year, third is actually his best position with left field probably his next best position.
In essence, this is like having Ben Zobrist in his prime. Yes, Zobrist did eventually settle at second, but he also played all over. The operating plan with Zobrist seemed to be he had to play everyday, but where he would play would be dictated by the rest of the roster and lineup.
That’s how the Mets should be entering this season. It’s all well and good to think McNeil could be your best second base option, but they can’t overlook displacing McNeil from that position and shifting him elsewhere should another option emerge.
Overall, if you’re limiting McNeil to just second, you’re taking away part of what makes him great. Instead of treating him like just a second baseman, they should treat him like the player who can and should be moved around the diamond to help the Mets offensively and defensively.
The New York Mets are losing out on potential third base and potential depth options, there are reports the Mets are among the teams interested in Marwin Gonzalez. There are some good things Gonzalez can offer, and there are some real problems with Gonzalez.
On the bright-side, Gonzalez is a versatile player. Over the last three seasons, he has a -1 DRS at first, 2 DRS at second, 6 DRS at third, -4 DRS at short, and a 15 DRS in the outfield. Over the past three seasons, he has played every position except pitcher and catcher. He has played some capably, and he has played others at an elite level.
At least defensively, Gonzalez is a player like Jeff McNeil you can stick anywhere on the diamond, and you can feel comfortable with trusting him to play that position for a game or two or for a full season. There is immense value in that, and that is not something which should be overlooked.
However, that is part of the equation with Gonzalez. Since leaving the Houston Astros, who we now know were stealing signs, Gonzalez has not been a remotely good hitter. Over the past two years with the Minnesota Twins, Gonzalez has had an 85 wRC+. He is hitting .248/.311/.387. When you look at his Baseball Savant page, you see this is who he is now as Gonzalez is below average in hard hit rate, barrels, and walk rate.
As an everyday player, this is very problematic. When you break it down, this is someone who really isn’t a better option in the infield than what the Mets already have in Luis Guillorme. Given Gonzalez has been in decline offensively and in terms of his declining speed, it can reasonably be argued he is a step below Guillorme now. In 2021 and beyond, Guillorme is very likely going to be the superior player.
Now, that doesn’t mean the Mets don’t have the need for Gonzalez. They can certainly use the bench depth. If Luis Rojas is adept enough, he can rotate McNeil, Guillorme, and Gonzalez enough to keep them all fresh and very effective. Obviously, McNeil would get the vast majority of the playing time. It should also be noted in the event of an injury in their infield or outfield, it would benefit the team greatly to have a player like Gonzalez able to step in and play everyday.
Overall, Gonzalez would be an improvement for the Mets. If they are looking to add him for depth, it would be an incredible signing. If it is a starting job, it would be a sideways move at best. Much of how to analyze adding Gonzalez is just how the Mets intend to use and deploy him. In some ways, that is a very good problem to have.
Back to our regularly scheduled programming, the New York Mets still do not have a third baseman for the 2021 season. With the Nolan Arenado trade their options are dwindling.
We are not sure as to the realistic chances are of obtaining either Kris Bryant or Eugenio Suarez in a trade. We also know Justin Turner is seeking too many years, and his preference is to stay with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Mets aren’t in on Kolten Wong, and there aren’t any more free agent third base options available. The end result is the Mets running out of time and options to fulfill their massive third base vacancy.
And yes, it’s a massive vacancy as J.D. Davis has proven wholly incapable of playing that or any other defensive position. As we saw last year, without a juiced ball or overly inflated BABIP, he’s not worth playing on an everyday basis.
The end result of all of this means Luis Guillorme is probably the Mets best bet. He’s shown he can be a good everyday option at second base. While some may question his bat still, his defense there is elite and can carry his offense.
This means Jeff McNeil moves to third. Last year aside, he’s proven he can play the position, and as we know, his bat will play anywhere.
If that’s the plan, it’s a good plan. The only problem is the Mets don’t have the depth to cast Guillorme in a starting role. That’s obviously not his fault, and being fair, that shouldn’t preclude him from getting the starting position he’s earned.
Overall, the Mets are nearing Spring Training, and there’s no obvious third base plan. They don’t have the internal depth, and there are very few external options available.
All told, the Mets still have a lot of work to do.
One moment, Evan Longoria is a budding superstar. The next, Longoria is a player on an onerous contract the San Francisco Giants wish they didn’t obtain from the Tampa Bay Rays.
Putting that aside, let’s take a look at his level of production since joining the Giants.
Since 2018, Longoria has a 94 wRC+ and a 12 DRS. While his wRC+ is below average and ranks just 20th among qualified players, his DRS is third best in the majors over this time span. Overall, his 4.9 bWAR and 3.3 fWAR makes him a top 20 third baseman in the league.
Make no mistake, the offense is quite poor. However, part of that could be Oracle Park which is a nightmare for right-handed hitters. Longoria has been no exception.
In his career, Longoria is a .242/.293/.388 hitter at Oracle Park. That’s a paltry 83 wRC+. By and large, at best that’s the production of a Four-A player. More likely, that’s a player who is not even that good.
However, that’s only part of the story. Since joining the Giants, Longoria has been a .259/.314/.466 hitter, which equates to a 103 wRC+. By no means is that outstanding, but it’s a significant improvement over his home stats.
With Longoria’s glove, you can justify a 103 wRC+ at third. Assuming that’s the level of production you can get from him, the question turn becomes if it’s worth trading for him.
Before prejudging, there’s an important consideration. The third base market is absolutely barren. Right now, it’s really just Justin Turner, who is much more likely than not to return to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
If Turner won’t come to the Mets, Longoria should be on the table, at least in concept. Yes, it would be preferable to sign Kolten Wong and move Jeff McNeil back to third.
Beyond that, the Mets need a Plan C. No, Longoria isn’t preferable, but he’s a viable option. At a minimum, he’s a very good glove you can stick at third to help the pitching.
Perhaps, being removed from Oracle Park will awaken his bat. For what it’s worth, the team would probably look to have him hit no higher than seventh.
Essentially, what the Mets would be hoping for is the 2006 season Jose Valentin provided. Plug Longoria into a much better lineup, move him down the order, and just let him along for the ride.
At one year $14.7 million, he’s not going to require anything of value in return. Even then, the San Francisco Giants might eat salary to move him. Maybe they’ll take back a similarly bad contract in Jeurys Familia and call it a done deal.
If Longoria isn’t going to cost anything but money, he’s worth pursuing. The third base free agent market is barren, and at a minimum, the Mets would get excellent defense. Yes, explore other options more heavily, but don’t forget to come back to this one.
Sometimes, a player gets tagged with a ridiculous label, and no matter how much they do to dispel it, it continues. Maybe it’s because Mike Francesa said it, or maybe it’s because people don’t appreciate him for some reason.
Whatever the case, Brandon Nimmo is not a fourth outfielder.
Calling him that is laughably absurd, and those doing it needs to stop. There is no evidence whatsoever which supports that position.
Nimmo broke out in 2018. In that season, Nimmo surpassed expectations hitting .263/.404/.483 with 28 doubles, eight triples, 17 homers, and 47 RBI. In that season and going forward, Nimmo has established himself as a good baseball player and terrific lead-off hitter.
Since 2018, Nimmo has posted a 140 wRC+. That’s the best mark of anyone on the Mets, and it’s the 12th best in the majors. Among outfielders, he’s ranked sixth.
When you look at WAR, he’s posted a 6.7 bWAR and a 7.3 fWAR. Yes, you’d probably expect that to be higher given his offense. However, there are a few reasons it’s lower.
First, Nimmo dealt with a neck injury in 2019 limiting him to 69 games. That had an impact on his production. However, it’s important to note he came back healthy and proved he could produce at his 2018 levels. He did just that in 2020.
The other reason Nimmo’s WAR takes a hit is because he’s playing out of position in center. As a corner outfielder, Nimmo has a 9 OAA and 4 DRS. As a centerfielder, he has a -1 OAA and -14 DRS. When he’s out of center, his defense doesn’t negatively impact his WAR.
Putting all that aside, Nimmo’s WAR over the past three seasons is 22nd best in the majors. This past season he was ranked 21st.
Looking at the leaderboard, Nimmo would be the best outfielder on 21 of the 30 MLB teams. Only the Dodgers, Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Mets have two outfielders ranked higher than him. In terms of the Mets, with Jeff McNeil returning to the infield, that leaves just three teams.
This means if Nimmo were to be dropped on any MLB roster, he’d be one of the best outfielders on that team. Likely, he’d be a top two outfielder on that team.
This isn’t what a fourth outfielder looks like. This is what an All-Star caliber outfielder looks like. That’s really what Nimmo is.
And really, we should know better. We know what fourth outfielders look like. Fourth outfielders are players like Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Alejandro De Aza, and Timo Perez.
To call Nimmo a fourth outfielder is to say he’s no better than them, and that’s absurd. Nimmo is far better than them. When you look at the numbers, Nimmo is better than the majority of Major League outfielders.
As the New York Mets continue to build their roster, one area they need to address is depth a versatility. Case in point, Guillermo Heredia, a player with a career 84 wRC+ and -7 DRS in center is slated to be the team’s fourth outfielder.
There’s also J.D. Davis who can’t play a defensive position. That really leaves Luis Guillorme as the only real capable MLB utility player on the roster, and he’s just an infielder.
Looking at the free agent list, one name which really stands out is Enrique Hernandez. He’s a very versatile player who is a right-handed bat which can compliment a very heavy left-hand hitting Mets roster.
Hernandez has been a good to adequate defender across the diamond. In 2020, he played every position but third recording a 0 OAA at each position. In fact, he’s never been worse than a -3 OAA at any position in his career.
What really stands out is his good he’s been at second and center. At second, he has a career 2 OAA and an 18 DRS. In center, he has a career 4 OAA and 4 DRS. That also happens to be two big areas of need.
With center, Hernandez can be a late inning defensive replacement there. He can also be that at second for Jeff McNeil thereby allowing McNeil to move to third. Of course, this assumes the Mets don’t add new starters at these positions.
Even if they do, Hernandez can still serve as a defensive replacement. Moreover, with no DH in the NL, Hernandez is a strong option to double switch into games. Really, he plays seven defensive positions, and he’s quite good in the outfield and second.
On that note, Hernandez isn’t the strongest hitter. He has a career 99 wRC+. That’s been dragged down by consecutive sub 90 wRC+ seasons.
Still, Hernandez has traditionally hit left-handed pitchers well. Since 2015, he’s posted a 122 wRC+ against them. That’s one of the reasons Dave Roberts controversially started him against David Price in Game 5 of the 2018 World Series.
Whatever the impetus was for that decision, it’s apparent Hernandez can hit left-handed pitching, and he’s a good defender. With his versatility, he can platoon in center with Brandon Nimmo or with McNeil at second.
Hernandez is a player you can trust starting for small stretches in case of injury. He’s also accustomed to producing with irregular playing time. He can give you very good defense and hit left-handed pitching.
Overall, Hernandez just complements this Mets roster. He provides a balance to a team which is left-handed hitting friendly, and he’s a good defensive player across the diamond. As a result, the Mets should strongly consider him.
The New York Mets got their star in Francisco Lindor. The question now is how to best build the rest of the roster to help the Mets win the division.
There are still some areas which need to be addressed with third base being one of the bigger issues. While J.D. Davis is the incumbent, the Mets do not appear eager to put him there and rightfully so due to Davis’ career -19 DRS and -6 OAA make him completely unplayable there.
Looking forward, one thing Mets GM Jared Porter spoke about addressing run prevention. Another way to phrase that is putting an improved defensive team on the field.
One of the best ways to build the best defensive team would be for the Mets to sign reigning Gold Glover Kolten Wong to play second base. Simply put, Wong is the best defensive second baseman in the game which is why he’s won consecutive Gold Gloves.
Over the past three years, Wong’s 37 DRS is a significant step above the next best player. This is part of the reason why Wong has amassed the fifth best WAR over this timeframe over players whose primary positions over this timeframe has been second base.
Pairing Wong with Lindor would make this easily the best defensive tandem up the middle in the majors. For that matter, it could be better than Edgardo Alfonzo and Rey Ordoñez up the middle. That’s just how good they could be.
This would also be a huge turnaround for the current Mets. Since 2017, Mets second basemen have a -35 DRS, which is third worst in the majors. Over the same time period, their shortstops have had a -62 DRS, which is by far the worst in the majors.
All told, since the Mets last made the postseason, they’ve been the worst defensive team in the majors, and really, it’s not close. Adding Wong to Lindor would turn one of the team’s biggest weaknesses and make it a significant strength.
That means more ground balls become outs, and more double plays get turned. Marcus Stroman and his career 58.6 GB% and Carlos Carrasco with his career 48.6 GB% would become even more formidable pitchers. There’s also sinkerballer David Peterson who could benefit. Really, all Mets pitchers would benefit.
This means pitchers go deeper into games saving the bullpen. That keeps everyone stronger as they work their way through the season and hopefully head to the postseason.
Overall, adding Wong’s glove and league average bat (103 wRC+ since 2017) adds a dynamic to the Mets missing for 20 years. It gives the Mets superior up the middle defense helping the pitching staff and making the overall team better. As a result, signing Wong should now be a priority.
In case you were skeptical this was indeed a new era of New York Mets baseball, the Mets just acquired Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco from the Cleveland Indians. With that, the Mets added a top five player in the game at short, and they added a top of the rotation caliber pitcher to pair with Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman.
When you add these players to a core with Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, James McCann, Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, and Dominic Smith. Whether or not the Mets add another starter, bullpen arm, third baseman, or center fielder, the Mets already have the pieces in place to be a true World Series contender.
Just think about it for a moment. Assuming Noah Syndergaard returns this season, this is currently the Mets rotation:
Even if the Mets don’t go out there and sign a George Springer or add a third baseman, this is what the Mets lineup could look like during the course of the 2021 season:
- Brandon Nimmo, CF
- Michael Conforto, RF
- Pete Alonso, 1B
- Dominic Smith, LF
- Francisco Lindor, SS
- Jeff McNeil, 3B
- James McCann, C
- Luis Guillorme 2B
Sure, this Mets team could definitively stand to get better defensively in the outfield. That said, that infield defensive alignment is quite good, especially up the middle, and that lineup is as strong and deep as they come. This is a team who can go toe-to-toe with the defending division champion Atlanta Braves and the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Right now, this is a great baseball team.
What’s even better is the Mets are not done with their offseason. They are still going to add more pieces. That could include Springer, and it could be a reliever like Brad Hand. There are are likely going to be depth pieces added beyond this group. When all is said and done, the Mets with Steve Cohen, Sandy Alderson, and Jared Porter have already done and will continue to do what Jeff Wilpon and Brodie Van Wagenen could never even dream of doing.
Today is a great day in Mets history. Today is just like the day the Mets acquired Keith Hernandez, Gary Carter, and Mike Piazza. The Mets got a future Hall of Famer in his prime, and they completely changed the trajectory of the franchise both this year and in the years to come.
Lets Go Mets!
One of the best parts of the 2020 season was watching Luis Guillorme and Andres Gimenez perform pure magic in the middle infield. It rivaled Edgardo Alfonzo and Rey Ordóñez, and at times, you could imagine it being better.
Luis Guillorme and Andrés Giménez are making it look it easy out here. pic.twitter.com/NFRyvPzin6
— SNY (@SNYtv) August 12, 2020
Rick Porcello gets a BIG double play to end the 4th ? pic.twitter.com/Yie43Yclep
— SNY (@SNYtv) August 12, 2020
Luis Guillorme can pitch and make great plays in the field. Versatility >>> pic.twitter.com/uzEQkSyYb2
— SNY (@SNYtv) August 11, 2020
If you value up the middle defense and believe it’s a key to winning, there is arguably none better than the tandem of Guillorme and Gimenez. In 2021, Gimenez seems to be a lock at short, but we don’t ever hear Guillorme’s name for consideration of the starting second base job.
In just 102.0 innings at second last year, he had a 1 OAA and a 12.5 UZR/150. In his Major League career, he’s played 176.0 innings accumulating a 2 DRS and a 2 OAA.
While this is a small sample size, Guillorme was always known for elite defense. It’s one of the reasons the Mets once protected him from the Rule 5 Draft and have kept him as a utility player.
We’ve seen through Mets and baseball history glove first players like Guillorme can play everyday and be a tremendous asset. The classic example in Mets history is Ordóñez and Juan Lagares in 2013 and 2014.
When it comes to Guillorme, he’s a more promising hitter than those two elite defenders. We saw a classic example of that when he posted a 144 wRC+ with a career best 14.7% walk rate.
Of course, his .463 BABIP is unsustainable. Still, behind that were some sustainable things like the improved walk rate. Other important factors are his opposite field approach and improved line drive rate.
Guillorme knows what he is as a hitter, and he’s maximizing his skill set. Where he winds up as a hitter is a good guess, but you can probably safely assume he’ll hit enough to justify his Gold Glove caliber defense at second.
Now, if Jeff McNeil can handle third, Guillorme needs to be strongly considered at second. In terms of the current roster, Guillorme at second and McNeil at third is probably their best roster.
Of course, free agency and trades can change that. However, up until there’s a clear obvious upgrade available, and those options may not be readily attainable for the Mets, Guillorme needs to finally get the chance at a starting position.
With Ha-Seong Kim signing with the San Diego Padres, the New York Mets ability to obtain a third baseman grew exponentially more difficult. That’s not to say there aren’t options.
Nolan Arenado and Kris Bryant remain on the trade bloc. Of course, pulling the trigger on a deal for either player is extraordinarily difficult due to the damage Brodie Van Wagenen inflicted on the Mets farm system.
Looking at the remaining free agent third base market, Justin Turner is the only everyday third baseman available. There are many obstacles with him including his age and desire to stay with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
This leaves the Mets going all-in on the aforementioned trade options or getting creative.
The creative options involve the Mets addressing second base. That could be signing DJ LeMahieu, or better yet, Kolten Wong. Luis Guillorme could be given the starting second base job he’s more than earned, or the team could go with Andres Gimenez there with Amed Rosario back at short.
These and other options are on the table so long as the Mets believe they can entrust the third base job to Jeff McNeil.
Now, last year, the Mets gave up on McNeil at third rather quickly. There were many reasons why including J.D. Davis‘ ineptitude in left. Of course, Davis was equally inept at third (again) causing this issue.
The other reason why the Mets moved McNeil from third was McNeil struggled there. In 75.0 innings, he had a -2 OAA and a 0 DRS. Part of the issue was he struggled with his throws.
This should give everyone pause, but it should be remembered 75.0 innings is the epitome of a small sample size. Another issue is the bizarre nature of the 2020 season. Taking all that into account, we shouldn’t overreact to McNeil’s third base defense.
Entering last season, McNeil had a career 3 OAA and 5 DRS at third. Of note, that was still a small sample size with his having played 173.1 innings over the span of two years.
However, while he’s doesn’t have extensive third base experience in the majors, he played over a thousand innings at third in the minors. This leaves the impression the Mets believe he can handle the position.
Well, maybe. In Sandy Alderson’s first Mets stint, he was reluctant to call-up McNeil saying he wasn’t a third baseman. When Robinson Cano was suspended, Alderson said third was “up in the air.” All told, in typical Alderson fashion, we’re still not quite sure what he thinks.
Whatever the case, McNeil is easily the best in-house option. As the options for third dry up and look all the more unattainable, he increasingly becomes the only option there leaving the Mets to replace Cano at second with someone else.
At least with second, there are plenty of very good options remaining. Unfortunately, McNeil is probably not one of those options as the Mets could very well need him at third.