For those that bemoan a day and age where men where men and starters went all nine innings today wasn’t for you.
Robert Gsellman got the start, and he fought it all night long. The Marlins took advantage scoring runs in three consecutive innings.
In the first, Giancarlo Stanton hit a two out RBI single scoring Miguel Rojas, who had reached on a double.
In the second, Marcell Ozuna absolutely crushed one:
How to define "crushed." ?
?: https://t.co/xhLiqTLCko#LetsGoFish pic.twitter.com/zlrWm5mVyt
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) April 8, 2017
Leading off the third, Curtis Granderson misplayed a J.T. Realmuto liner into a triple. Really to scored on a Rojas sacrifice fly.
Gsellman finally had a scoreless inning in the fourth, and he appeared to have found himself. He appeared to be settling in a bit. He then struggled in the fifth.
Quickly, it was runners on the corners with one out. In what may be prove to be a building block for the season, Gsellman got out of the inning. First, Gsellman got Justin Bour to ground out weakly to Wilmer Flores freezing the runner at third. Gsellman then got out of the inning by striking out Ozuna with a beautiful change-up.
It was a professional start from Gsellman. He fought it all game long, but he kept his team in the game. His final line was five innings, six hits, three runs, three earned, two walks, and seven strikeouts. He departed down 3-0 after throwing 91 pitches.
While Gsellman kept his team in the game, it wasn’t enough as this Mets team is already showing their warts offensively. Worse yet, the Mets were facing Adam Conley, who absolutely owns the Mets:
In 2 starts at Citi Field, Conley has a 0.00 ERA, 0.615 WHIP, 10.4 K/9. In 5 games against the Mets 1-0, 1.11 ERA, 0.863 WHIP, 8.1 K/9
— Mets Daddy (@MetsDaddy2013) April 8, 2017
It was more of the same from Conley tonight who carried a no-hitter into the fifth. Finally, his no-hitter and his Citi Field scoreless streak was broken up by Lucas Duda:
Watch it fly! #LGM pic.twitter.com/DvVLuywFu6
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 9, 2017
Duda has typically struggled against left-handed pitchers in his career with the exception of 2015. In that season, Duda stayed in and went the other way against lefties. The end result was Duda hitting .285/.333/.545 off left-handed pitching. So far this season, we’re seeing that Duda. He already has two extra-base hits off left-handed pitching and both hits went to left-center.
For some reason, the Marlins pulled Conley after he only threw 85 pitches. There was hope the Mets could get into the Marlins bullpen, but the Duda home run would be as close as the Mets got on the night.
Hansel Robles struggled again walking two and allowing a RBI single to Ozuna making it 4-1.
Paul Sewald made his major league debut in the eighth. The Las Vegas native fittingly wore the number 51.
Unfortunately, Sewald struggled. The Marlins greeted him with three straight singles. When he finally recorded an out, it was a safety squeeze that scored a run. The damage wasn’t worse as Jerry Blevins came on in relief and bailed him out.
Just to rub salt into the wound that was this game, Christian Yelich robbed Yoenis Cespedes of an extra base hit in the ninth. As usual, all the great catches are against the Mets.
In the ninth, Collins turned to Rafael Montero which was absurd and potentially dangerous. Yesterday, Montero threw 35 pitches over 2.2 innings. On Wednesday, Montero threw 35 pitches over 1.2 innings. That’s 70 pitches over 4.2 innings without much rest.
This is shades of Jim Henderson. Henderson was no longer the same pitcher after Collins’ reckless use if him, and Henderson couldn’t get a roster spot with a major league team this year. Collins showed he learned nothing from the event.
Naturally, it didn’t go well for Montero. Now, Montero attacked hitters, but he was a tired pitcher with nothing. It was a shame his manager put him in that position. His allowed three hits and two runs before Fernando Salas got the Mets out of the inning without further damage.
By that point, it didn’t really matter anyway. It was 8-1, which was the final score.
It is difficult picking who had the worst night, but it might have been Neil Walker who earned his first career golden sombrero. He’s now 3-20 on the season.
With the loss, the Mets snap their streak of beating the Marlins in five straight series. Instead of winning a series, the Mets now need to win two in a row just to earn a split. Fortunately, the Mets have Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom the next two nights.
Game Notes: The Phillies jumped all over Jeremy Guthrie and the Nationals scoring 12 first inning runs. Those 12 runs match the amount of runs the Mets have scored all season. Granderson lead off as Jose Reyes started the game on the bench. He was double switched into the game in the sixth. He went 0-1, and he’s 1-19 on the season. Josh Smoker rebounded after yesterday’s tough outing by pitching a scoreless sixth. Asdrubal Cabrera is dealing with a wrist injury.
With the full season minor leagues having their Opening Day on Thursday, the Mets have announced the rosters for each of their minor league affiliates. Each team includes an interesting group of prospects. Each team also features a particular strength of each aspect of the Mets farm system. Keeping in mind each particular group is viewed not just in terms of how good the players are now, but also how they project going forward, here are the best of the best:
Best Starting Pitching – St. Lucie Mets
Starting Rotation: Andrew Church, Justin Dunn, Marcos Molina, Nabil Crismatt, Kevin Canelon, Chase Ingram, Thomas McIlrath, Joe Shaw
The St. Lucie rotation features a number of pitchers who may very well make their way to a major league mound. The former second round draft pick Church fixed both his hip and his mechanics, and he had a breakout season last year. Dunn is already a top 10 Mets prospect a year after he was drafted. Molina is back from Tommy John surgery, and he has looked good in both the Arizona Fall Leauge and Spring Training. Crismatt more than held his own against the vaunted Dominican Republic team in the World Baseball Classic. This is as exciting a rotation as there is in the minor leauges, and possibly, you will see some version of this rotation with the Mets one day.
Honorable Mention: Columbia Fireflies. A rotation with Jordan Humphreys, Merandy Gonzalez, and Harol Gonzalez is a very interesting minor league rotation. It would have been more interesting with Thomas Szapucki, but he is slated to miss time due to a shoulder impingement.
Best Bullpen – Las Vegas 51s
Bullpen: Paul Sewald, David Roseboom, Ben Rowen, Beck Wheeler, Erik Goeddel, Chase Bradford)
The 51s bullpen features Sewald and Roseboom who were both extremely effective closers last season. Certainly, both impressed the Mets enough to get long looks during Spring Training. Prior to having bone spurs removed, Goeddle was an effective major league reliever. Rowen gives you a different look with his sidewinding action on the mound. Arguably, this could be a major league bullpen that could hold its own.
Honorable Mention: Binghamton Rumble Ponies. The Rumble Ponies bullpen has Corey Taylor, who has been favorable compared to Jeurys Familia, as its closer. There are some other interesting names like Ben Griset, who is a very promising LOOGY, and Luis Mateo, who was once a very well thought out prospect before he faced some injury issues.
Best Catching Tandem – Las Vegas 51s
Catchers: Kevin Plawecki, Xorge Carrillo, Jeff Glenn
If nothing else, Plawecki has established he can handle a major league starting staff. More to the point, Plawecki has shown himself to be a very good pitch framer. While his bat has lagged in the majors, at 26, he still has time to improve. Behind him is Carrillo, who is a good defensive catcher that won the Gold Glove in the Mexican Winter Leagues this past offseason.
Honorable Mention: Binghamton Rumble Ponies. Tomas Nido seemingly put it all together in St. Lucie last year, and he appears poised to take the mantle as the Mets catcher of the future. Binghamton very easily could have been named the top catching tandem off that, but some deference was paid to Plawecki showing he can handle the position defensively at the major league level.
Best Infield – Las Vegas 51s
Infield – 1B Dominic Smith, 2B Gavin Cecchini, 3B Phillip Evans, SS Amed Rosario
When the weak point of your infield is a player who is coming off a season where he won the Eastern League batting title, you know you have something special. Rosario and Smith are considered two of the best prospects not only at their positions, but in the entire game. Cecchini played well enough last year to be put on the 40 man roster a year ahead of schedule and earn a September call-up where he hit two doubles in six major league at-bats.
Honorable Mention: St. Lucie Mets. The team features a pair of 2016 draft picks in 1B Peter Alonso and SS Colby Woodmansee who showed real ability during their time in Brooklyn. Due to that success, they both skipped Columbia and joined an interesting second base prospect in Vinny Siena and a promising hitter at third base in Jhoan Urena.
Best Outfield – Columbia Fireflies
Outfield – Desmond Lindsay, Gene Cone, Jacob Zanon, Tim Tebow
No, this isn’t because of Tebow. This is mostly about Lindsay, who has been labeled as an “offensive machine” by the Mets organization. He is a five tool prospect that with a little health will arrive at Citi Field sooner rather than later. Another interesting five tool prospect is former Division II player Zanon. He certainly has all the tools to succeed. It is a question whether those tools can translate against better competition. Cone is a player who has a good baseball IQ, but he still needs to translate that and his talent to on the field success
Honorable Mention: Las Vegas 51s. The outfield got demonstratively better with the recent signing of Desmond Jennings. It will get better with either Brandon Nimmo or Michael Conforto playing for them again. That depends on Nimmo’s health as well as the health of the major league outfield. It will also be interesting to see how Matt Reynolds handles taking on what was Ty Kelly‘s role last year in being a utility player that mostly plays left field.
Overall, the Mets have a number of good to very good prospects who are either close or project to be major leaguers. Some of those players like Rosario will be stars. Others should have long major league careers. While we are getting excited for another year of Mets baseball, we also have a lot to be excited about for years to come with these prospects.
With Opening Day already behind us, it is now time to look forward to see how the rest of the 2017 season will progress. Yes, this is the typically ill-fated projections post. As with anything else, this will likely be wrong by season’s end, and with any luck, I will be reminded of it come October.
AL East – Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox won the division last year with an MVP caliber season from Mookie Betts, Rick Porcello with a more ways than one surprising Cy Young season, and lots of young talent. The team will be hurt by the loss of David Ortiz, but they will be helped by the addition of Chris Sale, who should help boost a rotation that has David Price as a question mark. Considering the rest of the AL East downgraded as well, it it fair to surmise the downgraded Red Sox roster will stay on top.
AL Central – Cleveland Indians
So, the American League Pennant winners add Edwin Encarnacion, get Michael Brantley back, and return Carlos Correa from injury? That’s the rich getting richer. This team is poised to not only win the division again, but they should be poised to return to the World Series.
AL West – Texas Rangers
This team is truly going to benefit from a full season of Jonathan Lucroy behind the plate, and they are also going to benefit from a full season from Yu Darvish. Combine that with a good bullpen, an excellent manager in Jeff Banister, and veteran leaders in Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli, you have a team that will get the most of its roster and be able to win those close and tight games like they did last year.
AL Wild Card 1 – Houston Astros
The Astros will probably lose the division due to the lack of depth in their starting pitching. However, with a deep lineup that has George Springer–Alex Bregman–Jose Altuve–Carlos Correa–Carlos Beltran as their top five hitters. Combine that with Beltran’s leadership and mentoring of young players, and this is a team that will give the Rangers all they can give them.
AL Wild Card 2 – Seattle Mariners
The Mariners fell heartbreakingly short last season, and they have improved the roster with Jerry DiPoto suddenly becoming Trader Jack McKeon. To name a few, the Mariners added Jean Segura, Yovani Gallardo, and Drew Smyly to what was already a pretty good team with Felix Hernandez, Robinson Cano, and Kyle Seager.
NL East – New York Mets
The Nationals are certainly more formidable than they were last year with them having a full year of Trea Turner and with the Adam Eaton acquisition. However, on the pitching side, they do not have the depth they typically have, and that is an issue with Stephen Strasburg‘s medical history and Max Scherzer having questionable health entering the season. Ultimately, it is the Mets depth that should carry the team over the Nationals in what promises to be a tight race.
NL Central – Chicago Cubs
They won the World Series last year, and they get Kyle Schwarber back into the lineup everyday and add Wade Davis to the bullpen. The real question is not whether they win the division, but whether they get to 100 wins again.
NL West – Los Angeles Dodgers
Like with the National League East, the top two teams are very close, and it’s picking hairs to separate them. If you look at it Clayton Kershaw is better than Madison Bumgarner. Kenley Jansen is better than Mark Melancon. Johnny Cueto is better than another other pitcher the Dodgers have, but the Dodgers have a deeper rotation than the Giants. The Dodgers also arguably have the deeper lineup. If it goes in the reverse, no one should be surprised, but ultimately, the Dodgers appear better on paper.
NL Wild Card 1 – San Francisco Giants
When you have Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, and two aces atop your rotation, it is hard to believe you are going to miss the postseason in its entirety.
NL Wild Card 2 – Washington Nationals
While the team is not deep and has some issues, there are real strengths. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy are as good and as clutch a 3-4 combination as there is. The bullpen with Koda Glover, Joe Blanton, Shawn Kelley, and Blake Treinen could be dominant. Again, their only real question is health.
Postseason Series
AL Wild Card Game – Postseason Beltran and the Astros offense overcomes King Felix in his first ever postseason start.
ALDS – In what proves to be a slugfest, the better Astros lineup carries them past the Red Sox. In the other ALDS matchup, the Indians pitching, including the unleashing of Andrew Miller proves to be too much for the Rangers.
ALCS – The Indians pitching proves to be too much for a hot hitting Astros team leading them to consecutive World Series appearances.
NL Wild Card Game – Pick your reason: (1) Bumgarner; or (2) it’s technically a postseason series.
NLDS – This year, the Giants with an improved bullpen won’t be denied as Cueto and Bumgarner led the Giants past the Cubs. The Mets and the Dodgers 2015 NLDS matchup is not as intense as the Dodgers only have Kershaw to match the Mets aces leaving the Mets to be able to get past them a little easier this go-round.
NLCS – Bumgarner and Cueto are offset by Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. After that, the Mets can pick from Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman, Zack Wheeler, or maybe even Seth Lugo. You’d probably take any of them over the Giants next best starter Jeff Samardzija. As such, the Mets pitching outlasts the Giants pitching.
World Series – As painful as this is to say, Terry Francona just manages his way around Terry Collins and brings the Indians their first World Series title since 1948.
After Matt Harvey‘s terrific start last night, most Mets fans were a little more optimistic about Zack Wheeler‘s first start after missing two years due to his Tommy John surgery.
That optimism crew to a crescendo after Wheeler’s first inning of work. He was getting it up to 98 MPH. He struck out A.J. Ellis and Christian Yelich to end the inning.
Wheeler got his lead in the bottom of the first when Curtis Granderson got a two out RBI single off Marlis starter Wei-Yin Chen to score Asdrubal Cabrera. It was already Granderson’s second two out hit with RISP this season. He had four all of last year.
At this point, the Mets were looking good. It was too soon to say the Mets were in control, but based on the first inning, confidence was building.
Unfortunately, Wheeler would struggle the rest of the game. In the second, Derek Dietrich hit a two run triple giving the Marlins the lead. He later scored on an Adeiny Hechavarria RBI groundout.
The third inning saw Yelich hit a two run homer off the right field could pole increasing the Marlins lead to 5-1. Dating back to last season, Yelich has homered in his last four games at Citi Field.
By the end of the fourth, Wheeler threw 80 pitches, and he was done for the night. His final line was four innings, six hits, five runs, five earned, one walk, and four strikeouts.
There were plenty of reasons for the struggles; the least of which was Wheeler hasn’t pitched in over two years. It was a cold and very windy night. The outfielders were fighting every fly ball. Wheeler couldn’t get an off speed pitch over the plate. He seemed to lose his velocity after the first inning. Another factor was he was supposed to be in Extended Spring Training to work on these things.
Still, there were some positive signs for Wheeler, and it is something he can build upon.
Unfortunately, the same thing can’t be said for Josh Smoker who really struggled when he took over for Wheeler in the fifth. By the way, this was the spot for Montero because you’re looking for your long man, but that’s Terry for you.
Smoker was first done in as Yoenis Cespedes misread a ball hit by Yelich. Smoker followed that by issuing back-to-back walks to Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Bour. Marcell Ozuna and Dietrich followed with RBI singles. After throwing 27 pitches, Smoker was done leaving the bases loaded with one out.
Surprisingly, Rafael Montero bailed out Smoker by getting Hechavarria to ground into the 1-2-3 double play.
If you’re looking for a bright spot on the night, it was definitely Montero. Montero came in and attacked the Marlins hitters. Overall, he pitched 2.2 innings yielding just one hit and two walks while striking out two. This was an important outing for both him and the Mets. He needed this outing considering his previous outing, Wheeler’s struggles, and the injuries to Seth Lugo and Steven Matz.
The Mets had a chance to get back in the game with Granderson and Neil Walker hitting consecutive one out singles. Jay Bruce ended the rally grounding into the inning ending 6-4-3 double play.
It was just one of those nights. Simply put when Montero and Josh Edgin are your best pitchers, it’s not going to be a good night. To be fair, Montero and Edgin were quite good. Offensively, the only highlight was Granderson who was 2-4 with an RBI.
Well, that and Cespedes homered in the eighth. It was his first of the year.
.@ynscspds crushes his first homer of the year!
7-2 Miami | Bot-8 pic.twitter.com/gJQmOM9UTp
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 8, 2017
This game was the epitome of “you can’t win ’em all.” The game was so bad, GKR was flipping through baseball cards and discussing pizza toppings. Mets just need to forget about this 7-2 loss and get ready for tomorrow night’s game.
Game Notes: Jose Reyes went 0-5 tonight putting him at 1-18 on the year. Still, it was Lucas Duda who sat in favor of Wilmer Flores. Rene Rivera started in place of Travis d’Arnaud because Terry perceived Rivera and Wheeler worked well together and to combat the Marlins running game. Wheeler allowed five runs over four innings, and Dee Gordon stole a base.
Power pitchers always present a conundrum. When they’re young and at their best, they dominate. However, they won’t always have that fastball. The question then becomes what next? Can the pitcher effectively adapt with a diminished fastball to be a quality starter? Can they still be dominant?
As Mets fans, we saw it first-hand with Pedro Martinez. In Boston, Pedro threw in the high 90s, and he put together legendarily great seasons. Towards the end of his Boston run and his time with the Mets, Pedro was in the low 90s forcing him to focus even more on location and movement.
In 2005, Pedro did that better than anyone going 15-8 with a 2.82 ERA, 0.949 WHIP, and an 8.6 K/9. He was an All Star. He was dominant. He could’ve done more if not for foot and shoulder injuries.
Judging from Matt Harvey‘s start last night, we may be watching Harvey try to emulate what Pedro did so well in 2005.
When Harvey burst on the scene in 2013, he was throwing in the high 90s and would hit 100 MPH. After his Tommy John surgery, Harvey again was living in the high 90s even if he wasn’t quite getting it to 100 MPH anymore. After Harvey’s surgery to remove a rib to alleviate the effects of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (TOS), his velocity hasn’t quite returned yet. During Spring Training, what velocity he did have wasn’t consistently there.
As a result, Harvey had to adapt. Adapt he did.
Last night, instead of trying to blow his four seamer past batters, Harvey relied almost exclusively on his two seamer. Instead of being in the high 90s, Harvey was hovering around 94 MPH. Instead of trying to rack up the strikeouts, he was relying on movement, location, and pitching to contact.
We saw an economical Harvey who only needing 77 pitches to get through 6.2 innings. Other than two mistakes Matt Kemp turned into long home runs, Harvey mostly yielded week contact. Impressively, Harvey seemed to get stronger as the game went on recording two of his four strikeouts in the seventh. While it wasn’t the typical Harvey start we were used to seeing, it was the same Harvey. He had the swagger on the mound, and he dominated the opposition.
And with that, we have a glimpse of the transformation Harvey is undertaking in the event his velocity never fully returns. With him, we see a pitcher who is knows how to pitch. We see a pitcher able to reinvent himself. We see a pitcher able to dominate in more ways than one.
This is extremely important. The Mets have decisions over the next few years on who to keep and who should go. Essentially, you’re gauging who is going to be Pedro and who is going to be Tim Lincecum. The ones that go the Pedro route are the ones who are worthy of contract extensions. They are going to be the pitchers who will continue to pitch at a high level, and they will help the Mets compete for the World Series year in and year out. While there may have been some doubt Harvey was that type of pitcher, last night, he started to put those concerns to bed.
When Harvey was first called up to the majors, we knew he was special. Seeing him last night, he showed just how special he could be. He could be one of the greats that has the ability to get outs no matter what he has. If that is the case, even though he is represented by Scott Boras, he might just be the first pitcher you want to sign to a contract extension.
However, before we get to that point, let’s just enjoy Harvey for what he is. He’s already gone a long way in calming our concerns about him and the rotation. We can once again dream of the Mets winning a World Series this year with a rotation headlined by him, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard.
With the injuries to both Steven Matz and Seth Lugo, the safety net was gone. Not only did Matt Harvey have to begin the year in the rotation, but he was going to have to be the Harvey of old to give the Mets a chance to fulfill their hopes of reclaiming the National League East.
During Spring Training, that was far from a certainty. His velocity and confidence were all over the place. It was not until the end of Spring Training that Harvey began to look more like his old self. Still, when he took the mound on a cold wet night, there was doubt as to what we would be.
Harvey was great.
Now, it wasn’t quite the Harvey of old. He featured his two seamer more almost scrapping his four seamer. Instead of being in the upper 90s, he was sitting mostly at 94. He pitched more to contact than rack up the strikeouts. Still, his secondary pitches were there, especially his vaunted slider. With that, he might not have been the 2013 or 2015 Harvey, but he was still great.
His only mistake was a thigh high fastball to Matt Kemp who deposited the pitch into the left field seats giving the Braves a 1-0 lead.
In a rare sight for a pitcher who has historically gotten low run support, the Mets responded right away in the bottom of the fifth.
Neil Walker finally got his first hit of the year. The red hot Jay Bruce followed with a single of his own. Both would score on Travis d’Arnaud‘s RBI double.
It was a huge hit for d’Arnaud bot just because it gave the Mets the lead, but also because it was his first RBI off a left-handed pitcher since September 14, 2015. That’s not a typo – d’Arnaud had no RBIs off a left-handed pitcher last year. In what is a huge year for d’Arnaud, he got his first big hit.
In the sixth, Wilmer Flores, who absolutely kills left-handed pitching, hit a two run homer right down the left field line off Jaime Garcia to give the Mets a 4-1 lead.
https://twitter.com/mets/status/850148178263408640
Those four runs were enough for Harvey. Harvey lasted 6.2 innings allowing three hits, two runs, two earned, no walks, and four strikeouts. Two of his four strikeouts came in the seventh as he was pushing towards the finish line. He was then chased by Kemp’s second homer of the night.
You honestly could not have expected more from Harvey. He was economical throwing just 77 pitches. He pitched to contact and enduced weak contact. He dominated. With that, the Mets rotation looks great again.
Jerry Blevins got the last out of the inning before turning it over to Fernando Salas and Addison Reed. Salas faced a bases loaded two out jam, but he was able to get out of it by striking out Swanson.
There would be no save opportunity as the Mets added two in the seventh to make it a 6-2 game. Asdrubal Cabrera singled home Michael Conforto, who was hit by a pitch when pinch hitting for Blevins. Later in the inning, Reyes scored when Dansby Swanson threw the ball offline trying to complete a double play on the Yoenis Cespedes grounder.
Game Notes: Jose Reyes got his first base hit after having started the year going 0-12. Flores got the start over Lucas Duda with the left-handed pitcher on the mound. Tim Tebow hit an opposite field home run in his first at-bat for Columbia
Breaking: Tim Tebow homers in his first at-bat. Are you kidding me? pic.twitter.com/tzal9jtvyH
— Mike Uva (@Mike_Uva) April 6, 2017
Through 20 innings, the Mets have only scored in two of them. Most of their runs have been scored when Eric O’Flaherty took the mound on Opening Day. As the Mets don’t get to face the O’Flahertys of the world 162 games in a season, some doubt can begin to creep into fans minds about this offense.
With 160 games left on the schedule, it is way too soon to panic. And yet . . . .
There are some obvious flaws with this offense. Notably, this is not a team that gets on base. This is important because getting on base is usually a prerequisite for scoring a run. Here are the OBP for the Mets lineup over the past three seasons:
- Jose Reyes .321
- Asdrubal Cabrera .319
- Yoenis Cespedes .326
- Curtis Granderson .342
- Neil Walker .338
- Jay Bruce .295
- Lucas Duda .344
- Travis d’Arnaud .314
According to Baseball Reference, the major league average OBP last year was .322. This means half of the Mets lineup is under the league average. Now matter how you may try to justify it, that’s not good.
Now, there are some caveats to the above-listed OBPs. Since joining the Mets, Cespedes has a .348 OBP. Since being reunited with Kevin Long, Granderson’s is .350. Cabrera (.339) and Walker (.346) have each seen similar upticks working with Long.
It’s a small sample size, but Bruce has certainly looked like an improved hitter this season. Surprisingly, we drew three walks on Opening Day.
Duda’s OBP is skewed due to an injury plagued year last year. Eliminate last year, and Duda has a .350 OBP. Skewing in the opposite direction, d’Arnaud had a .340 OBP in 2015.
Point is that while there are red flags all around this offense, there is still reason to believe this team can start clicking offensively. It’s a long season which gives the Mets a long time to figure things out.
Still, we need to keep in the back of our minds, there’s a reason the Mets players have put up poor OBPs over the course of the prior three seasons.
Overall, this means Kevin Long, Pat Roessler, and the entire Mets team have their work cut out for them. If they don’t address this OBP issue, the Mets are going to struggle offensively like they did in much of 2015 and 2016.
If they do address the issue, the Mets will have quite the formidable offense. It’ll be one that can carry you to the postseason. It could be one that brings home a World Series.
But that’s getting ahead of ourselves. Before getting to the World Series, the Mets need to focus on getting to first base. As we see that may be easier said than done.
With Steven Matz suffering from a flexor tendon strain and Seth Lugo suffering from a partially torn UCL, the Mets deep pitching staff is no more. This is a concern because teams rarely if ever go through a season using just five starters. Even assuming good health, it is impractical to think the Mets will be that team especially with Zack Wheeler being limited to around 125 innings this season. With that in mind, the Mets are likely going to have to go deeper into the pitching ranks at some point this season. Here are the current Mets internal options on that front:
RHP Rafael Montero
2016 Stats: 0-1, 8.05 ERA, 9 G, 3 GS, 19.0 IP, 2.053 WHIP, 9.5 K/9
It’s amazing how the Mets keep getting back to the point where they are going to have to rely on Montero to contribute in some fashion. Frankly, its more amazing that he’s still a Met after failing to capitalize on all the opportunities he’s been given. The talent is there, and it has been tantalizing. However, he hasn’t trusted it in the big leagues leading to him walking batters and giving up hits. He seemed to trust it better during Spring Training, and he actually won a spot on the Opening Day roster. We’ve been fooled before, but maybe this is a new Montero. Whether we like it or not, we may soon find out.
LHP Sean Gilmartin
2016 Stats: 0-1, 7.13 ERA, 14 G, GS, 17.2 IP, 1.585 WHIP, 5.6 K/9
When the Mets needed to make a roster move to help make room for Jerry Blevins on the 40 man roster, Gilmartin and Montero were eyed as potential cuts due to their struggles last season. With the Mets finding a taker for Gabriel Ynoa, Gilmartin got another chance. It’s also another chance to find out what he is exactly. In 2015, he was good as the long man out of the bullpen. In 2016, Gilmartin jumped out of the gate great in Las Vegas going 2-1 with a 1.66 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in April. From there, the Mets messed with his arm a bit. On multiple occasions, he was put on the red eye and asked to make a relief appearance with less than full rest after a start. Eventually, he had shoulder issues, and his season fell apart. We will see if the Mets are more judicious in their use of him this year. We may also find out which version of Gilmartin is the real version.
LHP Tom Gorzelanny
2016 Stats: 1-0, 21.00 ERA, 7 G, 3.0 IP, 3.000 WHIP, 12.0 K/9
It has been six years since Gorzelanny has been a part of a major league rotation. The reason is as a major league starter Gorzelanny is 37-47 with a 4.62 ERA, 1.474 WHIP, and a 7.0 K/9 in his 121 starts. Even worse, when Gorzelanny starts, batters are hitting .272/.345/.431. Realistically speaking, he was brought in to compete for a job as a left-handed pitcher out of the bullpen. He lost that competition, and he should be nowhere near the major league rotation.
LHP Adam Wilk
2016 MiLB Stats: 2-8, 3.61 ERA, 15 G, 15 GS, 87.1 IP, 1.122 WHIP, 5.77 K/9
The 29 year old left-handed pitcher has thrown a total of 26.1 major league innings in his professional career. The Mets invited him to Spring Training on the off chance that he could show some ability as a LOOGY out of the bullpen. More realistically speaking, Wilk was brought in as organizational depth as the Mets needed some arms to fill out their Triple A rotation.
RHP Ricky Knapp
2016 MiLB Stats: 13-6, 2.69 ERA, 25 G, 24 GS, 163.2 IP, 1.143 WHIP, 6.3 K/9
MMN‘s 32nd ranked prospect is coming off a breakout year in the Mets farm system. The son of a coach has terrific and repeatable mechanics, and he knows how to pitch. Knapp is a true four pitch pitcher with no true plus pitch and his fastball sits at 88-92 MPH. He typically pitches to contact, and he keeps the ball on the ground. Knapp threw the most complete games out of anyone in the Mets organization last year. Pitchers like him typically struggle in Las Vegas, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t be looked upon as a contributor in 2017.
RHP Chris Flexen
2016 MiLB Stats: 10-9, 3.56 ERA, 25 G, 25 GS, 134.0 IP, 1.313 WHIP, 6.4 K/9
MMN’s 20th ranked prospect was added to the 40 man roster this past offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. He is a year and a half removed from Tommy John surgery, and he started to get stronger in the second half of last season. Flexen was sitting in the mid 90s with the ability to ramp up his fastball into the high 90s. He has a promising curveball with a sharp late bite. He needs to refine both his mechanics and his change-up. However, it is not likely Flexen has the same Double A to the majors path Robert Gsellman had last year as Flexen isn’t as polished as Gsellman, doesn’t have as good of stuff, and he is coming off knee surgery to remove a bone chip from his knee.
Other names that will certainly be asked about, but ultimately will be non-factors in the Mets rotation this year are Marcos Molina and Justin Dunn. This is Molina’s first full season since Tommy John surgery, and it is not likely the Mets will push him from St. Lucie all the way to the majors. With Dunn, he does not have the same injury concerns, but again, it is unlikely the Mets push him to the major league rotation in his first season in the full season minor leagues.
Ultimately, when the time does arise that the Mets need a starter, it appears Montero will likely get the first shot with Gilmartin after him. Beyond that, the Mets will likely need to begin to make 40 man moves to either bring a Knapp onto the major league roster or add a veteran starter like Jake Peavy, who is still a free agent.
This is not the situation everyone thought the Mets would be in entering the season, but it is the one the Mets will likely be in at some point during the season. The Mets just need to hope someone emerges for them like Gsellman and Lugo did last year.