After the purported hand-wringing Sandy Alderson was doing over the free agent reliever market, the Mets finally pulled the trigger, and they signed Anthony Swarzak to a two year $14 million deal.
There is a lot to like about Swarzak. Last year, the 32 year old had his best ever season going 6-4 with a 2.33 ERA, 1.034 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9, and a 10.6 K/9. As noted by D.J. Short of Rotoworld, Swarzak had a higher swinging strike percentage than old friend Addison Reed. Part of that could be attributed to the fact he added about two MPH on his fastball.
He’s also been a platoon neutral pitcher his entire career with his best season being in 2017. While limiting right-handed batters to a .218/.259/.346 batting line, left-handed batters were worse against him hitting .198/.294/.281.
These stats are all the more incredible and important when you consider he predominantly worked in the 7th and 8th innings. The Mets needed another set-up man to work with AJ Ramos to hand the ball to Jeurys Familia in the 9th.
Overall, this is all important, and the signing helps the Mets. However it isn’t enough, especially because this is all but a shapshot of Swarzak’s career.
It was just in 2015 Swarzak had a 5.26 ERA and 1.516 WHIP in the Korean Leagues. In 2016, his first season back from Korea, he was 1-2 with a 5.52 ERA for the Yankees.
While he was obviously improved since then, it was mostly on the strength of some outliers. Prior to last season, he yielded a .304 BABIP. In 2017, that number was .272.
Prior to 2017, Swarzak left 69.8% of runners on base, which is right around league average. Last season, his LOB% was a career best 82.9%.
Maybe these numbers were all the result of improved stuff. Maybe it was him becoming more comfortable in the bullpen. It’s just as possible the increased velocity and some of the BABIP and LOB% will regress to league and career norms.
Overall, the Mets did acquire a quality reliever who should prove to better than internal options like Hansel Robles, Paul Sewald, and Josh Smoker. Moreover, Swarzak is getting the opportunity to work with Mickey Callaway and Dave Eiland. If there’s a tandem you trust to help Swarzak make 2017 the new norm instead of an outlier, it’s them.
Still, with the stark contrast between the 2017 and career numbers, the Mets need to hedge their bets that Swarzak may very well regress. In the end, this means that while Swarzak may very well prove to be a nice addition, he’s far from being the final piece of the puzzle.
In what has already been a frustrating offseason for Mets fans, Sandy Alderson has already uttered a statement that may prove to go down in “Panic Citi” history. While speaking with reporters, Alderson suggested people “spend a little less time focusing on our payroll.”
If Alderson wants everyone to spend less time focusing on payroll, maybe it is time to focus on Alderson’s tenure as the Mets General Manager to see how it was the team has gotten to this position.
Injuries
During Alderson’s entire tenure, there have only been eight players who have played over 140 games in a season – Asdrubal Cabrera (2016), Ike Davis (2012) Lucas Duda (2014), Curtis Granderson (2014 – 2016), Juan Lagares (2015), Daniel Murphy (2012 – 2014), Jose Reyes (2017), and David Wright (2012).
This is because of a long list of injuries that have occurred to their position players. This ranges from the ordinary (Yoenis Cespedes‘ hamstring issues) to the bizarre (Davis’ Valley Fever) to the tragic (Wright).
As poorly as things have gone for the position players, the pitching situation is even worse. Johan Santana, Tim Byrdak, and Scott Rice suffered injuries that effectively ended their careers. Same could be said for Bobby Parnell, Jeremy Hefner, and Jim Henderson. The list goes on and on..
That list includes a starting pitching staff upon which this franchise was supposedly built. Each of the treasured purported five aces have undergone surgeries that have cost them multiple months. Matt Harvey may never be the same, and the same can be said for Zack Wheeler.
The irony is Alderson implemented the famed “Prevention & Recovery” mantra, and arguably things have gotten worse under his control.
Evaluating Own Talent
Now, there are varying reasons why teams choose to extend some players while not extending others, or why they choose not to re-sign other players. Still, Alderson’s record is not exactly sterling on this front.
The main players discussed on this front are Murphy and Justin Turner. However, there are some other less discussed players that have slipped through the Mets fingers.
The Mets traded Collin McHugh for Eric Young only to watch McHugh thrive elsewhere. Chris Young was given a large one year deal, was released, and has been an effective player for the Yankees and Red Sox. They released Dario Alvarez to see the Braves claim him and trade him to the Rangers for a former first round draft pick. Finally, there was the Angel Pagan trade for a couple of players who amounted to nothing with the Mets.
The troubles evaluating their own players go beyond who they willingly let go. It goes to those players the Mets opted to extend – Lagares, Jon Niese, and Wright. None of these three ever amounted to the promise they had at the time the contracts were extended. There are differing reasons for this, but in the end, the Mets proved wrong in those decisions.
The Draft
The glass half-full is that every first round draft pick made prior to 2015 has made the Majors. Additionally, two of those players have made All Star teams. The glass half-empty is the players the Mets have drafted have not lived up to their potential.
At a time the Mets need a starting center fielder, Brandon Nimmo isn’t even being considered. This is not surprising as many see him as a fourth outfielder.
Coincidentally, the Mets also need a second baseman, and they are not even considering Gavin Cecchini for so much as a utility role let alone an opportunity to compete for a job in Spring Training.
The team was not at all enamored with Dominic Smith‘s rookie campaign, and they have publicly talked about bringing in insurance for him not being on the Opening Day roster.
The Mets had no 2015 draft pick because the team lost it signing Michael Cuddyer. Effectively speaking, this decision cost the Mets two first rounders as the team’s lack of offense and health caused them to trade Michael Fulmer for Cespedes. We have all seen Fulmer win a Rookie of the Year Award and make an All Star team in Detroit while the Mets have been desperate for pitching.
Justin Dunn has done little to quell the concerns he is a reliever and not a starter while Anthony Kay, the compensation for the reigning NLCS MVP, has yet to throw a professional pitch because of his Tommy John surgery.
This leaves Conforto, who should be a burgeoning superstar, but sadly we wait with baited breath looking to see if he is going to be the same player he was before separating his shoulder on a swing.
Free Agency
Alderson’s ventures into free agency have not been all that fruitful. Of all the players who have signed multi-year deals, only Granderson has posted multiple seasons over a 2.0 WAR. In fact, Granderson is the only player who has posted a cumulative WAR of over 4.0.
For those that would bring up Colon or Cespedes, their exploits are not attributable to their multi-year deals. Colon accumulated 4.9 WAR with the Mets with 3.4 of that coming during his one year contract. Cespedes has accumulated 7.2 WAR with the Mets with just 2.1 WAR coming last year in an injury plagued first year of a large four year deal.
It should be noted Alderson may not have much success on this front because the team has not gone crazy in free agency signing just a few players a year to Major League deals.
Depth
Even in 2015 and 2016, two years the Mets made the postseason, the Mets had depth issues. This was why the team traded for Kelly Johnson in consecutive seasons. It’s also a reason why in those consecutive years the Mets had to add to the bullpen.
Those seasons have taken a toll on the Mets prospect front. They have sent away a number of assets and potential Major League contributors for a number of players who were attainable before the season began on reasonable deals. Instead, the Mets thought they would be set with players like Eric Campbell.
Synposis
Much of what is attributed to Alderson being a good General Manager is predicated upon a stroke of genius in obtaining Noah Syndergaard, Travis d’Arnaud, and Wuilmer Becerra in exchange for R.A. Dickey. Even with many fans wanting to give him plaudits for Cespedes, it should be noted the trade was made largely because of a series of missteps. It should also be noted the Mets lost a pretty good pitcher.
Now, if you are going to defend Alderson by saying his hands have been largely tied due to the Mets payroll, remember, Alderson himself doesn’t want thinks we should spend a little less time focusing on that.
Sadly, we have to do that because the Alderson regime has had difficulties in evaluating their own talent and drafting high end talent. If he had, the discussion would probably be the Mets fine tuning to make another postseason run instead of there being fan anger over how the payroll is restricting the Mets from building a World Series caliber roster.
While the New York Yankees were introducing their newest player Giancarlo Stanton and basking in the afterglow of their reemergence as the Evil Empire, the Mets were contemplating an exit strategy for Matt Harvey. According to reports, this includes potentially trading him to the Texas Rangers for Jurickson Profar.
The Mets even contemplating such a move is a dangerous situation for the franchise, and it is a move that can blow up in their faces.
Look, there is no doubt, Harvey is no longer Harvey. Over the past two seasons, he has dealt with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, atrophied muscles in his throwing shoulder, and an ensuing stress reaction. His combined stats are a 9-17 record with a 5.78 ERA and a 1.581 WHIP.
Looking over that, there is every doubt Harvey could get back to being a good Major League pitcher let alone the Dark Knight.
You know what is even more doubtful? Profar will ever live up to the billing of being Baseball America‘s top prospect after the 2012 season.
After receiving the top billing, Profar missed consecutive seasons due to shoulder injuries. Since returning from those injuries, Profar has played in 112 games over the past two seasons hitting .227/.316/.315. That’s good for a 67 OPS+ and a 71 wRC+.
Defensively, he’s played everywhere because when you hit as poorly as Profar, you’re nothing more than a utility player. Albeit in limited sample sizes, he’s capably handled first, second, third, short, and left field. The key phrase here is capably, not well. In the end if you are not outstanding defensively, you cannot afford to have offensive stats as low as Profar.
With how poorly Profar has performed, it begs the question why anyone would have interest in him, let alone a Mets team who already have middling and much better second base and platoon options. Really, the Mets should be hesitant to trade Rafael Montero for Profar let alone Harvey.
With Harvey, you at least have some hope. That’s not just hope in the clubhouse, but also with the fanbase.
The team brought on Mickey Callaway and Dave Eiland. The team appears to be bringing in a new person to oversee the training program. All of these things indicate Harvey could very well rebound. Quite possibly he doesn’t, but at the very least, there are the tools in place needed for Harvey to be Harvey.
Even if he fails in the rotation, Mets fans can talk themselves into being a dominant reliever. We need not look any further than Brandon Morrow or what Eiland, himself, did with Mike Minor, who coincidentally signed a free agent deal with the Rangers.
That comes to the next point. Harvey brings more than hope. He’s a lightning rod for the Mets. Every fifth day, he demands attention. He’s an interesting and polarizing figure. Put another way, he’s a star.
As Sandy Alderson reminded us when the Mets re-signed Yoenis Cespedes, Major League Baseball is in the entertainment business. Teams need to not only be good. They need to be entertaining. They need to give people a reason to watch.
Harvey does that. Profar never has and never will. Really, any player the Mets would move for Harvey would do that.
At a time when the Yankees are the most interesting they have been since 2009 or even during their last dynasty, the Mets can ill afford to be both bad and boring. With the team plugging holes with players like Profar, they promise to be bad. With the Mets moving players like Harvey, they promise to be boring.
When you’re both bad and boring, no one wants to come to the ballpark. More than anyone else, the Mets should know that with Grant’s Tomb and the Madoff Scandal.
Fortunately for the moment, the Mets do not appear to believe Profar is enough for Harvey. Make no mistake, the trade discussions with the Rangers is but the first step in what may be Harvey’s last day as a member of the Mets organization as the team seems intent to move him.
Overall, the Mets can ill afford to trade Harvey because they can’t replace him or the hope he presents the team. With him goes what fleeting relevancy the Mets have in New York. Love him or hate him, the Mets need him.
With the Giancarlo Stanton trade saga and Shohei Ohtani looking for a team, the hot stove has been rather lukewarm this time of the year. With that said, we have seen some movement on the reliever market both be fore and after Stanton and Ohtani selected their ultimate destinations:
- Luke Gregerson 2 years $11 million
- Brandon Morrow 2 years $21 million
- Miles Mikolas 2 years $15.5 million
- Mike Minor 3 years $28 million
Now, based upon Sandy Alderson’s previous comments and behavior, you would think this would leave the Mets GM emboldened. The only reliever that got a deal more than two years was Minor, who was actually signed to pitch in the Rangers starting rotation.
Instead, Sandy Alderson spoke with reporters and crushed what little hope Mets fans had this offseason.
On the reliever market, which has already seen quality relievers sign to reasonable deals, Alderson said, “And to the extent that the market gets overheated, I wouldn’t think that we’ll jump into the inferno.” (Newsday).
Just wait, it gets better.
Alderson also admitted what Mets fans suspected to be true – the Mets didn’t even try to acquire Stanton. Hopefully, because he thinks we’re all stupid, Alderson didn’t cite that big contract as a reason. No, Alderson actually cited the fact the team had Brandon Nimmo as the reason why.
This is the same Nimmo the team never gave a real shot to start, at least before the fire sale and injuries, and the team won’t give a starting spot in next year’s outfield. Apparently to the amazement of everyone, the Mets don’t need the reigning MVP because Nimmo has gotten dramatically better in the roughly two months since the season ended. He’s now an MVP caliber player.
That’s awesome because as we all know Alderson’s drafts have been spotty at best. His drafts have produced only two All Stars. The first, Michael Conforto, is rehabbing from a significant shoulder injury, and we don’t know if he will ever be the same (NOTE: don’t get a Mets fan started on team injuries). The second, Michael Fulmer, is a Tiger because back in 2014, the Mets thought Michael Cuddyer was the answer to their need for a productive hitter. As we know he wasn’t, and by extension, the Mets lost two first round picks.
But wait, after an offseason that began with the Mets leaking they have soured on Dominic Smith, the team is high on him again saying, “We’re still very high on Dominic — some of my comments earlier in the offseason notwithstanding.”
Apparently, the team is no longer interested in players like Carlos Santana not because of the cost, but rather, because Smith has been on the same postseason regiment as Nimmo where disappointing first round draft picks suddenly transform into MVP caliber players overnight.
Not discussed during the discussion with reporters was the Mets latest bombshell. They are now dangling Matt Harvey this offseason in exchange for a reliever.
As we have learned the past two seasons, the one thing the Mets can well afford to do is to be reckless with pitching depth. No, we can’t count on Harvey to be anything. However, the same can be said for Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz.
Considering the Mets heavily invested in their pitching staff by hiring Mickey Callaway as manager and Dave Eiland as pitching coach, why not see if they can get Harvey back to being the Dark Knight, or at the very least a reliable starting pitcher?
Do you really need to trade him for a sixth inning reliever? And if that is the case, why not let Harvey move to the bullpen? With Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman, you already have seven starters for five spots. Someone is going to have to go to Triple-A or the bullpen. If Harvey can’t withstand the rotation, why not find out if he can the bullpen?
And there we have it. The Mets not only have no faith in their coaching staff, but they are already backing off players on the eve of the Winter Meetings.
It was almost yesterday the Mets were discussing Santana, Ohtani, Lorenzo Cain, and Jason Kipnis. Now? Well, we are talking trading Harvey to help fix the bullpen, and Nimmo and Smith as being a significant part of the future when just a month earlier they were not a legitimate starting option.
This is what happens when the Mets aren’t trying to generate hype to get fans to purchase individual game tickets. It’s what happens when the Mets are entering a Winter Meetings when their initial hype and hope are about to get exposed.
With the New York Yankees acquiring Giancarlo Stanton for a lackluster package including Starlin Castro but not top prospects or Clint Frazier, Mets fans should be livid.
No, this isn’t a Mets-Yankees thing. It’s a Mets being the Mets thing.
First and foremost, the Mets were not serious suitors for the reigning National League MVP, a player who would have dramatically changed the outlook of the 2018 season.
Not only would Stanton deepen the lineup, but he would help make a great defensive outfield with Yoenis Cespedes and Juan Lagares. This is all the more imperative in an era where players focus on hitting the ball in the air.
As for Michael Conforto, you let him heal properly and don’t rush him back (a novel approach when it comes to the Mets. When he returns, the Mets can transition him to first base. This would help solve the first base situation with the team having already soured on Dominic Smith.
We all know why this never happened. It’s because the Mets didn’t want to pay Stanton much like they’re not going to pay Carlos Santana, Yu Darvish, J.D. Martinez, or any other top tier free agent this winter.
And no, it’s not a defense that Stanton didn’t want to waive his no trade clause to come to the Mets. If true, that’s an even bigger indictment on the team.
Look, if Stanton only wanted to play for the Dodgers or Angels, his two hometown teams, so be it. Teams like the Giants and Cardinals tried anyway and were rebuffed.
With Stanton joining the Yankees, we know that isn’t the case. Rather, Stanton effectively said if you really want to trade me send me to a place where I can win – not just right now, but also in the coming years.
If Stanton didn’t want to come to the Mets, that’s ultimately the reason. Like the fans, he sees a team in disarray (flawed roster and shallow farm system) that is cutting payroll and not making every effort to win a World Series. By the way, the includes, but is not limited to pursuing him.
Right there is the real reason to be livid over Stanton. The Mets aren’t very good right now, and they’re not fully invested in getting better. This isn’t just the illusion of an angry and disappointed fan base, it’s a widely held perception.
To some degree, it cost the Mets a chance at Stanton. We’re now left to wonder what other players it could cost the Mets this offseason.
In previous years, I complied holiday shopping guides for when my son was two and when he was three. Before creating this next list, I looked back, and I believe many of those items are still relevant, especially the Thomas table which my son periodically still uses to this day.
However, he’s older now, and his wants have changed. Gone are the days of Thomas and now we have ushered in the days of Lightning McQueen. With that in mind, and with other considerations, here is a list of items I do recommend for a four year for Christmas:
- Balance Bike with Helmet
- Boogie Board – not for the beach, one to write with
- Slot Cars
- Cars 3 Service Station or Mack’s Mobile Play Set
- Remote Control Car
- Thomasville Speedway Portable Set (bonus points for also being storage)
- Florida 500 Speedway
- Lego Juniors Sets
- Lego Table or Folding Table
- Board Games
- Baseball Mitt
- Knee Hockey Set
- Portable Soccer Net and Soccer Ball
- Football Uniform Set and Nerf Football
- Paw Patrol Air Patroller
- Paw Patrol Sea Patroller
- Pig & Elephant Books
- Pete the Cat Books
- Pigeon Books
- Amed Rosario (or other player) Shirsey
For many of the aforementioned items, I included the Amazon link for ease of use. I did this for two reasons: (1) everyone has access to Amazon; and (2) this late in the process, you have a better chance of getting something off the internet instead of at a store. If you haven’t purchased the items yet, comparison shop to the best of your ability.
While I hope this list is helpful, we should always to remember to tailor what we buy for your child’s interests. This is a large reason why I have only relisted one item from this year’s Top 25 Christmas Toys.
As always, please remember while you’re shopping, pick up a toy, no matter how small and donate it.
Some teams have the Curse of the Bambino. Others have the Billy Goat Curse. Because they’re the Mets, they have the Santa Curse. It was alive and well last year, and it seems like the Mets chose some pretty low hanging fruit this year.
Can you name all the Mets who have played Santa Claus? Good luck!
If you’re a Mets fan, you have become well aware of the Santa Curse. The origin of the curse is not known, although some may suspect it is related to the miserly Jacob Marley or Ebeneezer Scrooge ways of the Wilpon Family.
If you are one who does not believe in curses or other such things we cannot possibly being to understand, here are those who have played Santa and their fate:
2004 – Mike Cameron
In the 2005 season, Cameron would be limited by injuries. The worst of those came on August 11th as he and Carlos Beltran both dove for the same ball and had a violent collision. He was hospitalized with a broken nose, multiple facial fractures, and a concussion. He would never play another game for the Mets again.
2005 – Kris Benson
Benson’s turn as Santa was highlighted not by Santa but by Mrs. Claus. To many, Mrs. Claus would be the reason Benson would be moved to the Orioles. For his efforts, Benson was personally slighted, and he watched on from Baltimore as the Mets won their first division crown in 18 years. In the ensuing offseason, Benson discovered he had a rotator cuff tear that would all but end his career.
2006 – David Wright
Yes, by WAR, Wright probably had the single greatest season by any Met not named Tom Seaver. Still, do you really want to argue the curse was broken when Wright was one of the player who watched on as the Mets seven game lead with 17 to play evaporated?
2007 – John Maine
After successive pleasantly surprising seasons, it was Maine’s turn to don the Santa suit. What ensued was an injury plagued season, where doctors were able to notice the rotator cuff strain, but they completely missed what was described as the largest bone spur ever removed from a shoulder. That wasn’t discovered until his season ending surgery. Maine was never the same after that.
2008 – Mike Pelfrey
After looking like the pitcher the Mets drafted in the first round in 2005, he would get the first ever start in Citi Field history, and he allowed Jody Gerut to homer in the first official at-bat. It was just the start of a tough year for Pelfrey where he would lead the majors in balks, and he would tie an all-time Mets record for three balks in a game. As is that wasn’t bad enough, he finished the year as the first qualifying Mets pitcher to have an ERA over 5.00.
2009 – Jeff Francoeur
After struggling most of the 2010 season, he would eventually be relegated to the bench in favor of Angel Pagan once Beltran came off the Disabled List.
2010 – David Wright
After being a healthy and extremely productive player for his entire career, Wright would be limited to just 102 games after suffering a stress fracture in his lower back. Sadly, Mets fans know what has happened to him since.
2011 – Daniel Murphy
So far, Murphy’s 2012 season probably ranks as the only season where a player made it through relatively unscathed even if his numbers took a big drop from the ones he put up in 2011. Also, this was the season where Sandy Alderson first began to publicly mull the idea of trading Murphy, which was something that would follow the second baseman for the rest of his Mets tenure.
2012 – R.A. Dickey
Coming off a magical year with the Mets where he won his first Cy Young Award, Dickey was traded away to the Toronto Blue Jays. With the Blue Jays, he would win his first Gold Glove Award, but he would also come crashing back to earth going 14-13 with a 4.21 ERA.
2013 – Daniel Murphy
Murphy apparently learned his lessons from the first go-round as Santa, and he would become an All Star for the first time in his career. Still, none of that would shield him from the hysteria and criticism that would be levied his way by people like Boomer Esiason for having the audacity to be there for his wife when she gave birth to their first child.
2014 – Jenrry Mejia
After playing Santa, Mejia would test positive for PEDs not once, not twice, but three times. Only the Mets could have Santa permanently banned from baseball.
2015 – Steven Matz
With the Mets fresh off a pennant, Matz was a frontrunner for the Rookie of the Year. His dreams of winning that award or pitching in the postseason again were shelved when he had to have season ending surgery to remove what was described as a massive bone spur.
2016 – Noah Syndergaard
The invincible Thor refused to have an MRI, and he would have to leave an April 30th game against the Nationals with a torn lat. For all intents and purposes, it was a season ending injury.
2017 – Kevin Plawecki
With the exception of Murphy, no one has really gotten through the Santa Curse unscathed. Seeing what happened to the aforementioned Mets, it almost seems cruel to bestow this “honor” on a catcher who finally seemed to figure things out after struggling for over two years.
On Sunday December 17th, the Brooklyn Cyclones are hosting a Breakfast With Santa at MCU Park. For $10 per person or just $30 for a family of four, this is an absolute steal.
If you are not sold, consider your typical Christmas picture with Santa. You park only God knows where in a crowded mall parking lot. After that, you have to wait in a long line with your children. As we know the mall is hot, and your children are going to be cranky. That crankiness goes up a level if you have them in a nice Christmas outfit.
This leaves you collecting winter jackets or imploring them to leave them on. It’s a nightmare. You then have to rally them when they get to the front of the line to stop being cranky, smile, and take a nice picture. Depending on the age of your child, that may be a Herculean task because your child may be scared or intimidated.
For all that effort? Well you get to take one picture which may or may not be good. Even better, using the Short Hills Mall as an example, the whole exasperating experience will cost you $26 and up.
Instead of doing that, you could go to MCU Park and have an IHOP pancake breakfast. You then get to do picture with Santa and the mascots. Instead of standing in an interminable line, you child gets to do arts and crafts, have a story time, sing-a-longs, and have giveaways.
With this being 2017, the camera on your phone is more than good enough to take the picture yourself. You can then order that picture through Walgreens, Snapfish, or Shutterfly for less than a buck. Better yet, you can make that your Christmas card for the year.
Really, the question is why you would consider braving the malls this time of year instead of having Santa be a fun experience for your children. It makes no sense whatsoever, and that is why you should elect to do Breakfast with Santa instead of the staged photo.
Even if you can’t make it to MCU Park, you should still seek out Breakfast with Santa options. I did it once again this year, and I was thrilled with the result.
Even though the one I went to was more money than the one at MCU Park, it was still cheaper than a digital photo package from the mall. On top of that, I had breakfast with the family and an overall fun day.
EDITOR’S NOTE: this was not a paid advertisement. Rather, this is just strong advice based upon my experiences.