It’s July 28th. The Mets are past the 100 game mark of the season. We’re at the point where hit starts are just incredible seasons.
For Jacob deGrom, this means he’s having a Cy Young caliber season.
Really, it would be almost unheard of to have a starting pitcher leading the majors in ERA (1.82) and ERA+ (223). He leads the NL in FIP (2.28).
Despite all of that, deGrom just has five wins all year. If you think that’s bad, he’s got six losses.
That’s right. The guy who is the best starter in baseball this year is 5-6.
It’s worse than that. He’s the only pitcher in MLB history to have an ERA under 2.00 in 20+ starts to have fewer than seven wins.
Tonight, he allowed three earned on eight hits and no walks with five strikeouts. Astonishingly, this qualifies as a bad start for him. It’s just not a start where he deserves the loss.
He hasn’t deserved any of this. Hopefully, it’s not going to cost him the Cy Young he deserves.
When looking at Sandy Alderson’s tenure as the Mets General Manager, you would have to say one of the best moves he made was signing Asdrubal Cabrera in the offseason immediately after the Mets pennant.
When you look at Cabrera’s Mets career, the one thing that immediately comes to mind is how he almost single-handedly carried the Mets to the 2016 postseason.
At that time, the Mets were down Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, and Jacob deGrom in the rotation. The team had no third baseman for most of the season. Lucas Duda was essentially done for the year, and James Loney was doing a bad job offensively and defensively at first. Neil Walker would go down with a season ending back surgery. The prior year’s hero, Yoenis Cespedes, was in and out of the lineup with quad issues, and when he did play, he wasn’t the same guy he was in 2015.
After what was a largely disappointing injury plagued year, Cabrera came off the DL on August 19th, and he went on an absolute tear. From that point until the end of the season, he hit .345/.406/.635 with 11 doubles, a triple, 10 homers, and 29 RBI.
To put it in perspective just how great a run that was, Cabrera had the seventh best wRC+ over that stretch. His 179 wRC+ was better than players like Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, NL MVP Kris Bryant.
In that insane stretch, the Mets went from two games under .500 to finishing the year 87-75 with the top National League Wild Card. Not only did Cabrera fuel that run, but he might have also given us one of the greatest bat flips in Mets history:
From there, things haven’t been so great with the Mets. Unfortunately, it did lead to Cabrera demanding a trade when the team wanted to move him off of shortstop. With the Mets unable to move him, the team did pick up his option, and he returned.
It is a good thing he returned because Cabrera has been a bright spot in an otherwise dismal season. His 122 wRC+ is sixth best among Major League second basemen, and it is second best among players on the Mets Opening Day roster.
Whatever issues Cabrera may have caused with his demands, he is a guy who came to play each and every day. No matter what the injury or issue, he wanted in the lineup. More often that not, he contributed.
Part of the reason why is Cabrera is that rare breed of player who actually raises his game in New York. His 116 OPS+ with the Mets is better than any of his previous stops. He averaged a higher WAR with the Mets than at any other stop. It’s impressive he did this as a player towards the end of his prime as opposed to one entering his prime.
Overall, the New York Mets organization has been better for Cabrera having been a part of it. He was a player born to play in New York, and he had the opportunity to show it with a great pennant run in 2016. For that run alone, Mets fans should be thankful.
In the end, we should all wish Cabrera good luck in Philadelphia, and yes, given his play here, there Mets should consider bringing him back next year.
Heading into this series, Mickey Callaway said how he wanted to get a better look at his younger relievers and put them in higher pressure spots. With Jason Vargas starting for the Mets, you knew today was going to be the day.
That was even the case with Michael Conforto hitting a first inning three run homer.
Vargas would get through the first unscathed, but he would allow David Freese to hit a two run homer. This would be the first two of the five runs Freese knocked in on the day.
While Vargas somehow got out of a fourth inning bases loaded jam, Callaway would lift him after he issued a one out walk to Jordan Luplow. At that point, Vargas had already thrown 84 pitches, and the Pirates were about to go through the lineup a third time.
First up was Seth Lugo, who wasn’t as sharp as he’s been all season. After loading the bases, he allowed a two out two RBI single to Freese to give the Pirates a 4-3 lead.
One of the two runs were charged to Vargas, who somehow lowered his ERA after allowing three in 4.1 innings. His season ERA is now 8.13.
After his two-thirds of an inning, the Mets got him off the hook in the sixth in what was a rally that most fell short.
After back-to-back walks to Conforto and Jose Bautista, Jeff McNeil laid down a beautiful sacrifice bunt, which after a Edgar Santana error, loaded the bases with no outs.
Kevin Plawecki struck out, Jose Reyes lined out, and Phillip Evans grounded out.
Fortunately, the Mets would inadvertently score on the Reyes line out. On the play, Conforto faked down the line leading to Luplow trying the ball nowhere near home. As it rattled around the backstop, Conforto did score.
In the bottom of the inning, Tyler Bashlor would get himself into trouble by loading the bases, partially due to him walking two batters. Bashlor got out of the jam by getting Josh Harrison to hit into an inning ending double play.
After that, Bashlor would pitch a scoreless seventh.
Jacob Rhame struck out two in a scoreless eighth leaving it up to Tim Peterson to get the Mets into extra innings.
Harrison led off with an infield single. Amed Rosario made an incredible play to stop the ball, but he couldn’t get it to first with him on his backside. Gregory Polanco then ripped a line drive through the shift to set up runners at the corners with no outs.
After walking the bases loaded to set up an out at any base, Freese hit a deep fly to right to end the game 5-4.
Overall, there as some good work from these young Mets arms, but there was still speed bumps, even from those who pitched scoreless innings. Given where the Mets are, the team starting to get a real look at them made this a good game for the team.
Game Notes: The Mets played one man short as right before the game Asdrubal Cabrera was traded to the Phillies.
The Mets Fan
Colin Cosell, PA Announcer at Citi Field
How You Became a Mets Fan
As a child, I was always open to all New York sports teams (except hockey – I’m all Rangers). However, the first professional playoff I ever paid attention to was the MLB in ‘86. I was six years old, and the New York Mets were en route to a World Series title. It changed the city, and it changed me as a fan.
Favorite Mets Player
My current favorite Mets player would have to be Wilmer Flores. Love his skill set and overall persona. Historically, however, I’d go with John Franco. Always loved him.
Favorite Moment in Mets History
The ‘86 Series, obviously, but the NLCS clincher against the Cubs a few years ago was so magical. NYC turned into a sea of blue and orange, as if we were the only team in New York.
Message to Mets Fans
First of all, I’d like to personally thank Mets fans for giving me a chance as one of their new PA Announcers. I truly love this job and hope they’re warming up to me.
In the grand scheme of things, all I can say is what we all say: be patient, keep the faith, and let’s at least make the most of summer – win or lose. LET’S. GO. METS!!!
Well, unless pitcher wins still mean much more than they should, it would seem Jacob deGrom will win this year’s Cy Young Award. If that is the case, he will join a list of other Mets pitching greats who have won awards. Can you name all of the Mets pitchers who have won MLB awards? Good luck!
Tom Seaver Dwight Gooden Ron Darling Armando Benitez John Franco Jon Matlack Mike Hampton Al Leiter R.A. Dickey Matt Harvey
Well, it may not have been the prettiest of games, but the Mets came to play, and they beat the Pirates pretty handily.
Once again, it started with Michael Conforto and his hot hitting. After he would nearly hit one out against Pirates starter Nick Kingham, Wilmer Flores would actually hit one out.
The homer gave the Mets a 2-0 lead, and the team was off and running.
For three innings, it was back-and-forth with David Freese and Josh Harrison hitting two run homers off Steven Matz.
To Matz’s credit, he settled down, despite him apparently not feeling well, he gutted through six innings keeping the Pirates to the four runs. He would also strike out a career high nine batters.
Because the Mets bats exploded, he would get the win.
One of the big reasons why was Asdrubal Cabrera putting on a show in what is likely one of his final games in a Mets uniform. Overall, he was 3-5 with two runs, a double. homer, walk, and four RBI.
The first big inning for the Mets was the fourth, and it was aided by two big Pirates errors.
After a Cabrera two run homer, Conforto reached on a Harrison fielding error. Later that inning, with bases loaded and two outs in the inning, Freese threw it away allowing Devin Mesoraco to reach safely and Brandon Nimmo to score.
Jose Bautista would get thrown out at home with him trying to score from second. That would end the inning with the Mets leading 7-4.
The Mets bats awoke again in the seventh, and it began with a beautiful Jeff McNeil, who was starting his first game, base hit:
Q: Can he bunt?
A: pic.twitter.com/hEaki8TBab— Meditations in Panic City (@MedInPanicCity) July 27, 2018
It was an uneven game for McNeil in his first ever start. He was 1-2 with a run and two walks, and he did help turn two 5-4-3 double plays. He also made an error and base running mistake in the game. Fortunately, not only did they not cost the Mets the game, but his positives did outweigh his negatives in this game. It should come as no surprise the team is 3-0 in games he has played.
After a Mesoraco single, Jose Reyes predictably failed to deliver the big hit by popping out to Freese. Where Reyes failed, the player he is supposed to be mentoring (but isn’t) came up a delivered what could have been the final blow in the game. Rosario’s RBI single gave the Mets an 8-4 lead.
With Pirates reliever Rich Rodriguez throwing a wild pitch, Mesoraco was able to get to third and Rosario to second. This would not just allow Mesoraco to score on a Cabrera grounder to the right of the pitcher, but it would put Rosario to score on another wild pitch during Conforto’s at-bat. At that point, it was 10-4 Mets, which is a rare place for this team to have been lately.
Things were going so well for this team, Matt den Dekker would even contribute hitting a sacrifice fly in the eighth. In fact, Flores would hit one as well in the ninth giving the Mets a then 12-5 lead.
It is remarkable how the Mets had three sacrifice flies in this game. Those are the sort of small ball runs this team had been leaving on the bases all season long. While it has been a rough first year for Mickey Callaway, we are seeing this team improve fundamentally by getting bunts down and their starting to take advantage of these run scoring opportunities.
Surprisingly, Jerry Blevins and Paul Sewald would get the first cracks out of the bullpen. Blevins might’ve helped his trade value with a scoreless inning. Sewald struggled after two quick outs, but he did get out of his inning having allowed just one run scored.
It was the same story for Drew Smith. He got two quick outs before getting into minor trouble, minor because the game was nowhere near jeopardy. After he allowed one run, the Mets would win the game 12-6.
Surprisingly, this team is not only on a three game winning streak, but they are also over .500 in the Month of July. Oh what could have been.
Game Notes: Corey Oswalt was sent down to Triple-A so Jason Vargas could be activated from the disabled list to start the Mets next game.
As a second straight Mets season has completely fallen apart, there has been discussions about whether the Mets should blow the whole thing up. Those discussions have been ramped up with Yoenis Cespedes being out for at least 10 months with his having double heel surgery.
What’s odd about that is the Mets arguably have the best starting rotation in baseball with the top 1-2 combination with Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard.
Brandon Nimmo has played like an All Star caliber player, and lately Michael Conforto has returned to his All Star form.
The Mets have two potent weapons with Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo.
There’s also good talent close to the majors with Peter Alonso, Justin Dunn, and Andres Gimenez. Of course, Jeff McNeil was just called-up.
There’s talent present which could make the Mets winners in 2020 or even 2019. However, for that to happen, the Mets will need to add some pieces.
Fortunately for the Mets, this could go down as one of the most consequential free agent classes in Major League history. Teams will be lining up to throw money to Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Craig Kimbrel, Clayton Kershaw, and A.J. Pollock.
Given all that has happened, the Mets will have the money to be competitors on the free agent market. In fact, they are going to be quite flush with cash.
Expiring Contracts
Even if the Mets do not trade anyone who is due money past this season, the Mets will have money freed up because there are a number of contracts expiring after this season:
- AJ Ramos – $9.225 million
- Asdrubal Cabrera – $8.25 million
- Jerry Blevins – $7 million
- Devin Mesoraco* – $5.625 million
- Jose Reyes – $2 million
With respect to Mesoraco, there was an undisclosed amount of cash provided by the Reds when they obtained Harvey in exchange for Mesoraco. While Mesoraco is due $13.12 million this year, it was Harvey’s $5.625 million salary that was part of the Opening Day roster. Therefore, for the sake of calcualting how much money will be available, Harvey’s salary is used as the placeholder.
With the Harvey/Mesoraco caveat, the Mets will have $32.1 million coming off the books just from contracts currently on the books expiring after the season.
Subtotal $32.1 million
Familia Trade
With the Mets trading Jeurys Familia, the team not only was able to acquire two prospects in Bobby Wahl and William Toffey, both of whom will be earning de minimis minor league salaries, but the team was also able to remove Familia’s $7.925 million from the books with the team getting some cash savings this season with the Athletics taking on the remainder of Familia’s 2018 salary.
Subtotal $40.025
Insurance Money
David Wright has not played a Major League game since May 27, 2016. With each passing day and each additional set-back, it becomes increasingly unlikely we will ever see Wright play in another game for the Mets. Now when it comes to Wright, there are two factors at play which would give the team an avenue to spend more money this offseason.
First and foremost, Wright’s salary goes from $20 million in 2018 to $15 million in 2019. Right off the bat, that gives the Mets an additional $5 million to spend this offseason.
Additionally, Wright’s contract is fully insured with insurance paying 75% of Wright’s salary. As a result, the Mets will have an additional $11.25 million available to spend due to Wright’s inability to play.
But Wright is not the only injured player insured. In addition to Wright, Yoenis Cespedes‘ contract is also insured. That’s important in light of the announcement Cespedes will have double heel surgery and will be out at least 10 months. For what it’s worth, the Mets suggested he may be out longer than that.
Remember, Cespedes is out from 10 months from whenever he has the surgery. Not from the date of the press conference. With that in mind and for the sake of being conservative in the estimates, lets assume Cespedes is out for half the season.
With the Mets saying there is insurance that picks up over 50% of the salary owed to Cespedes, that means, the Mets will be able to recoup roughly 50% of a half’s seasons salary. With Cespedes due $29 million next year, insurance will pay at least $7.25 million. With each passing day that number will grow.
When combining the monies covered by insurance for Wright and Cespedes, the team will have an additional $18.5 million available to spend. When you include the $5 million drop in Wright’s salary, that number is $23.5 million.
Subtotal $63.525
Other Factors
As noted by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, ownership says it considers Wright’s contract part of the payroll, and the team does not reinvest the money saved into baseball operations. Putting aside what that means in terms of money available for a second, what this does mean is the team has saved and socked away $15 million of the $20 million due and owing to Wright this season.
The same likely applies to whatever the team can and will recover from insurance from Cespedes’ $29 million contract this season.
Additionally, the team saw savings of roughly $3 million for trading Familia, and they will likely see the same savings when other players are traded for the roster. Presumably, since that money is not being invested into baseball operations this season that would make that money available for 2019 and beyond.
For a moment, we can presume for a moment the $3 million saved on Familia can offset the $3 million pay increase due to Jay Bruce next season. Of course, the pay raises due in arbitration and the like will very easily be offset by the money saved on the Wright and Cespedes insurance policies. Really, there should be money to spare.
What This All Means
Looking at the Mets as currently constituted, they have tw0-third of their outfield set with Conforto and Nimmo. On the infield, they have Todd Frazier and Amed Rosario. They will also have Wilmer Flores, T.J. Rivera, and Jeff McNeil, who could become part of a time sharing at either first or second. If he can get healthy, the team could have Bruce at first or right depending on the development of Alonso, or yes, even Dominic Smith.
All told, this means the Mets have the payroll room and the spots on the roster to add at least one player of significance. Perhaps even two.
With that in mind, with the Mets having $63.525 million to spend this offseason, there is no excuse why this team shouldn’t aggressively pursue Machado and Harper. They should come away with one of them plus an additional piece to help take them over the top like a Kimbrel, Pollock, or yes, even a Daniel Murphy (first base only).
If the Mets do that, this is a potential World Series contender, especially with this starting pitching. If the team goes out and does this, the fans will pack Citi Field to the gills.
The time for excuses is over. It’s time to act like a big market club with a chance to win a World Series.
Well, the impossible has happened. After 17 tries the Mets have finally won a series. It’s been a long time.
The last series the Mets won was the May 18th – May 20th sweep of the Diamondbacks.
At that time, the Mets were 23-19 and just 3.5 games back. The winning pitcher, Noah Syndergaard didn’t have any issues with his finger, or his hand, foot, or mouth.
Adrian Gonzalez was the first baseman, and Jose Reyes was still a bench player. Jay Bruce was still able to play, and Yoenis Cespedes had two functioning heels.
Today, the Mets won with Corey Oswalt picking up his first career win. His final line was five innings, three hits, two earned, two walks, and four strikeouts.
In the bottom of the fifth, the Mets rallied starting with a Jose Bautista leadoff walk. He’d subsequently come around to score on a Kevin Plawecki RBI single.
Later that inning, Mickey Callaway would face a tough decision. With two outs and the Mets down 2-1, should he pull Oswalt and chase the win, or should he keep Oswalt in and hope for another rally.
Callaway opted to pinch hit for Oswalt despite his just having thrown 62 pitches. Callaway’s decision was rewarded when Phillip Evans hit a pinch hit RBI single to tie the score.
The move looked even better when Amed Rosario hit a two RBI single to give the Mets a 4-2 lead.
That lead grew to 6-2 with Bautista hitting a two run homer:
Hasta Bautista! ? pic.twitter.com/Mndd4etjko
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 25, 2018
Then considering it is the Mets bullpen at work, it was time to hold on for dear life.
Once again, Tim Peterson didn’t have it. In the seventh, he allowed a Freddy Galvis two run homer to make it 6-4, and the Padres went right back to work.
Robert Gsellman would relieve Peterson with one out and one, and he would preserve the 6-4 lead.
Anthony Swarzak would then have his best outing as a Mets pitching two scoreless to pick up the save.
For Swarzak, it was more than just two scoreless innings, it was his throwing 95 with a really good slider. Really, he looked like the guy who the Mets thought they were signing.
Some more of that, and suddenly, things look much better for this team next year.
Game Notes: For reasons no one can explain, Reyes started over Jeff McNeil. Before the game, Cespedes announced he el have season ending surgery.
Everywhere you look, people have panned the Mets return for Jeurys Familia. The Mets poor return was again highlighted yesterday when the Baltimore Orioles got a much better return for Zach Britton than the return the Mets had received.
Some of that analysis was well-grounded. For example, Keith Law of ESPN said, “although his command isn’t close to back yet, so his market value wasn’t going to be great, and in that context the O’s did well to acquire some pitching depth in the form of three second- or third-tier prospects from a very deep Yankees system.”
As we recall, Keith Law’s analysis of the Famila trade was that it was embarrassing for the Mets organization and all of Major League Baseball. He went so far as to call for the Commissioner’s office to step in and force the Wilpons to sell the team.
Again, this analysis was grounded on well based knowledge of the prospects and the ensuing analysis of the returns. Agree or disagree with any of it, it’s a learned critique. Then, we see Jon Heyman’s critique of the trades:
not to pick on anyone when they're down, but the orioles did a lot better for Britton than the mets did for Familia. Tate is the yanks' No. 6 prospect (plus the other 2 guys going to Baltimore are solid), mets got Oakland's No. 17 prospect and a bit more.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 25, 2018
If you read that critically, you will understand it tells you absolutely nothing about the quality of the return each selling team received for selling off their respective closers.
Remember, no two farm systems are alike, and they have different strengths and weaknesses. Moreover, some systems are just flat out stronger than others. In that tweet, Heyman gave us no context for why the Yankees No. 6 prospect is better than the Athletics No. 17 prospect.
It’s also important to note, he didn’t tell us who’s ranking. That’s also important because some lists are certainly credible than others.
Taking Heyman on face value that those prospect rankings were correct and up-to-date, it still doesn’t tell us if Dillon Tate or William Toffey was the better prospect.
With respect to Tate, he’s a 24 year old pitcher in Double-A. In his 15 starts, he is 5-2 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, and an 8.2 K/9. For the sake of comparison, 23 year old Nabil Crismatt, an undrafted free agent, made 16 starts in the same league this year. He was 8-5 with a 3.58 ERA, 1.237 WHIP, and a 9.1 K/9 before being promoted to Triple-A.
No, it’s not a perfect comparison, but it should be worth nothing the 2015 fourth overall pick cannot out-pitch an undrafted free agent. Think about that for a second, the Yankees seventh best prospect isn’t out-pitching an undrafted free agent.
It should also be noted many have panned the Mets farm system as being weak and towards the lower third in the majors. MLB Pipeline does not rank Crismatt among the Mets Top 30 prospects. Similarly, neither Baseball America nor Baseball Prospectus ranks Crismatt among the Mets top prospects.
Again, putting your personal like of either return aside, how can you accurately judge the trade when the Yankees purported seventh best prospect isn’t performing any better than an undrafted free agent who can’t even crack the Mets top prospect lists?
Also, for the sake of comparison, Baseball America has Jorge Mateo ranked as the Athletics seventh best prospect. Digging deeper, Mateo is ranked as a Top 100 prospect in all of baseball.
Fangraphs ranks him 61. Baseball Prosectus ranked him 79th. MLB Pipeline ranked him 71st.
None of those outlets have Tate in their Top 100 this year.
With that in mind, how can we possibly point out the Yankees seventh best prospect is a much better return than the Athletics 17th best prospect? The Athletics seventh best prospect is a Top 100 prospect while the Yankees seventh best propsect can’t out-pitch an undrafted minor league free agent.
In the end, we can say the Orioles got a better return for Britton than the Mets did for Familia. That is fair and reasonable. However, when drawing that conclusion, we should not compare each player’s ranking among that organization’s top prospects. As shown, those rankings tell us absolutely nothing about who is the better prospect or what was the better return.
Today was one of those games where you can see how this Mets team could be really good next year.
Zack Wheeler has clearly turned a corner in his career as evidenced by yet another terrific start tonight.
Through seven innings, he limited the Padres to two earned on four hits and one walk despite striking out just three.
The damage could’ve been worse, but Devin Mesoraco made a heads up play to throw to third on what was an odd decision on replay:
https://twitter.com/mlbreplays/status/1021918430000238595?s=21
Unlike Jacob deGrom last night, Wheeler was rewarded for his good start because the team scored runs for him.
The driving force of the lineup was once again Michael Conforto, who has been great since the All Star Break.
In the game, Conforto was 2-for-4 with two runs, a homer, and two RBI.
Awesome home run. Very, very sublime. pic.twitter.com/jiQVYjfs8H
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 25, 2018
The first run he scored was in the first. He hit a ball hard to the opposite field. Third baseman Christian Villanueva dove to knock it down, but he had no play on Conforto. Conforto would then score on the ensuing Mesoraco three RBI double.
The first runner who crossed the plate on that double was surprise leadoff hitter Amed Rosario.
Rosario has been slowly improving of late, and tonight was another step in the right direction. Not only did he draw a first inning leadoff walk against Padres starter Eric Lauer, but in his next at-bat, he would hit a triple.
Asdrubal Cabrera brought him home with an RBI single giving the Mets a 6-2 lead.
Even with Wheeler dealing, Conforto mashing, and Rosario setting the table, perhaps the biggest news was Jeff McNeil.
Before the game, in a flurry of moves, both he and Phillip Evans would be called-up with Yoenis Cespedes going on the DL and Ty Kelly being designated for assignment.
McNeil would finally make his MLB debut in the eighth. He pinch hit for Evans, and he hit the first pitch he saw for a single.
Despite the Mets assertions to the contrary, McNeil stayed in the game to play third where he would catch a pop out to record the final out of the Mets 6-3 win.
So yes, while this has been a dreadful season, the Mets do have the pieces to be a good team next year. We saw a glimpse of that tonight.
Game Notes: Seth Lugo allowed one run over the final two innings to preserve the win. The Mets still have made no GM or owner available to answer questions about Cespedes injury or second opinion. Instead, they let Mickey Callaway answer questions about it in the post-game.