Musings
One of the major reasons for the Mets run in 2015 was the Nationals bullpen. That bullpen had the third most blown saves in the National League.
It was a bullpen those Mets beat up on to win some key games. In the push to win the division, the Mets swept the Nationals twice. The Nationals bullpen blew four of those six games, and the Mets got the win against the Nationals bullpen in five of those six games.
The 2017 Nationals bullpen might even be worse than that bullpen.
After failing to obtain a closer in free agency or to acquire on in a trade, the Nationals went in-house for their closer. This has led to Dusty Baker playing Rusdian Roulette with Koda Glover, Blake Treinen, and Shawn Kelley. The end result has been the Nationals blowing the second most saves in the National League.
But it’s not just the rotating ineffective closers who are poor. It’s the entire Nationals bullpen:
- Koda Glover 5.12 ERA
- Blake Treinen 6.33 ERA
- Shawn Kelley 7.47 ERA
- Enny Romero 4.13 ERA
- Oliver Perez 4.97 ERA
- Jacob Turner 4.30 ERA
- Joe Blanton 8.78 ERA
About the only competent bullpen arm the Nationals have is Matt Albers, who is having an extreme outlier season partially fueled by an unsustainable .220 BABIP. In fact, he just blew a save against the Braves last night.
This bullpen is horrendous, and they’re killing the Nationals. Their 11 blown saves are the second most in the National League, and their 5.11 bullpen ERA is the worst in the National League.
The bullpen has played a major role in the Nationals losing four straight and five of six. In that timeframe, the Nationals lead over the Mets has shrunk from 12.5 games to 8.5 games in less than o r week.
Despite all that has happened to the Mets this year, they’re still in the National League East race thanks in large part to the Nationals bullpen. Who knows? Maybe a few months from now, we may be saying the Mets won the division because of that Nationals bullpen.
Despite teams pouring a tremendous amount of money into the topic, no one is still definitive on what causes pitcher injuries. Many will suggest it is fatigue, but even that is inconclusive. The Verducci Effect has been debunked time and again. Moreover, there was a 2003 Nate Silver and Matt Carroll Baseball Prospetus article which suggests the link between fatigue and arm injuries might be overstated. Still, there is evidence there is a link between fatigue and arm injuries. That is especially the case with pitchers over 25.
It is that link that made what Terry Collins did last night inexcusable.
Now, if you want to argue the inning snuck up Collins, you could make that argument. There were two outs in the second inning with Jon Lester coming up. Reasonably, a manager should expect his pitcher to get out of the inning. As we all know, Zack Wheeler didn’t. He grooved a pitch right down the middle to Lester, who hit a single to left. From there the doors fell off and the inning fell apart.
Wheeler was still only 18 pitches deep into the inning when he walked Albert Almora on four straight pitches. However, at this point, it was clear Wheeler was losing it, and to make matters worse, the Cubs lineup had turned over. From there Collins allowed Wheeler to throw 28 more pitches before lifting him for Josh Smoker. In total, Wheeler threw an inexcusable 46 pitches in the second inning.
This is the same Wheeler who missed two years after having Tommy John surgery. This is the same pitcher the Mets were rumored to want to limit to 125 innings this year. You need to be careful with Wheeler. Collins wasn’t. He would then compound his error with Wheeler by abusing Smoker.
Last year, Smoker’s high in pitches thrown in a game was 32. This year, he has already topped that six times. However, last night took the cake. Collins pushed Smoker to pitch four innings throwing 81 pitches. That’s a starter’s workload, not a reliever’s. There was a tangible effect.
Smoker is a pitcher that can get his fastball up to 97 MPH, which he did a couple of times last night. By the time Collins finally lifted Smoker in the sixth inning, he was throwing 89 MPH.
Collins went ahead and asked more from Smoker than he could possibly give. He did it despite the Mets bullpen only having thrown only 6.2 innings over the past four games. That was also despite the fact Jacob deGrom gave the bullpen a night off with his complete game. By the way, the only reason the Mets were able to obtain Smoker was because the Nationals former first round pick was released after two shoulder surgeries.
It’s not that Wheeler and Smoker need to be babied by their manager. Rather, they need their manager to not push them past the breaking point. This is no different than the protection Tim Byrdak, Scott Rice, Jim Henderson, and any number of pitchers Collins has left in his wake as manager.
In the modern game of baseball, the most important job a manager can do is managing his pitching staff. He needs to do all he can do to get them through a season both healthy and effective. Time and again, Collins has failed in that regard. Last night was the latest example. For his part, Collins has never had to face any ramifications for his actions. Unfortunately, his pitchers have. We should all cross our fingers Wheeler and Smoker will not be the next.
Prior to joining the Mets, Addison Reed had a career 4.20 ERA and a 1.327 WHIP. During his time with the Diamondbacks, he was sent back down to the minors because he was struggling. Despite all of this, a Mets team that was on the verge of making the postseason for the first time in 15 years took a flyer on the former White Sox closer.
The minute Reed put on a Mets jersey he became a completely different pitcher.
In his time with the Mets, Reed has made 97 appearances pitching 93.0 innings. In that time, Reed has gone 5-3 with two saves with a 1.84 ERA, 0.957 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9. His ERA is the best of any reliever with at least 90.0 innings pitched. He also has the second best WHIP and the third most strikeouts over that stretch. With him and Jeurys Familia, the Mets had the best 8-9 combination in all of baseball.
Then Reed became the closer for the Mets. He became the closer because of Familia’s suspension and ensuing surgery. He struggled.
In his first 18 appearances in his role as the Mets designated closer, Reed was 0-2 converting seven of nine save attempts. During this time, Reed had a 3.72 ERA, 1.138 WHIP, and a 10.2 K/9. Overall, Reed looked more like the pitcher who was an average to struggling reliever with the White Sox and Diamondbacks than the dominant reliever he has been with the Mets. About the only thing that resembled the Reed we have come to know with the Mets was his excellent 22:3 strikeout to walk ratio.
If you have taken notice recently, Reed is looking more and more like the pitcher we have come to know him to be with the Mets. In the month of June, Reed has made four appearances pitching 5.2 scoreless innings with a 0.706 WHIP converting all four of his save opportunities.
With his stretch, Reed’s stats are looking more familiar. Overall, he is 0-2 with a 2.70 ERA, 11 saves, 1.050 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9. He is once again a pitcher the Mets can rely upon to dominate out of the bullpen. The team needs it too with the relievers who are struggling.
The Mets are at a cross-roads right now, and they need everyone to be at their best. Fortunately, Reed is, and he once again gives the Mets the best chance to win each and every time he takes the mound.
There are times a manager is stuck playing a player because he doesn’t have a better option. There are times when a manager is stuck playing a player because that player has a big contract, and the team wants to try to extract as much value from the player as they can. There are other times when you play a player because you legitimately believe that player will improve.
Then there is Terry Collins continuously putting Jose Reyes in the lineup.
You cannot possibly justify putting Reyes in the lineup now. In his first 58 games this year, Reyes is hitting .186/.261/.294 with nine doubles, two triples, three homers, 18 RBI, and nine stolen bases. Among Major League third baseman, Reyes has the lowest batting average and slugging. He also has the second worst on base percentage. His -1.1 WAR is the second worst in the majors among third baseman, and it is the third worst among major league infielders. Overall, he’s a bad hitter.
You can’t even argue Reyes is hot. He is current two for his last 30, and he hasn’t had an extra base hit in over two weeks. You could call it a funk, but look at his numbers for the season. This is who Reyes is now.
He’s also not much of a fielder. In 270 innings at third, he has posted a -4 DRS and a -2.2 UZR. It’s a short sample size for sure, but it lines up with the numbers he posted in 427 innings at third last year when he had a -6 DRS and a -2.5 UZR.
It’s not like Collins is stuck playing Reyes. First and foremost, Reyes is making the major league minimum, and he is going to be a free agent after the season. There’s no need to try to save any face by playing Reyes. Also, there is a much better option.
Wilmer Flores is in the middle of a career year. He’s hitting .326/.349/.507 with eight doubles, a triple, five homers, 18 RBI, and a stolen base. He’s not the platoon bat he once was either. Against right-handed pitching this year, Flores is hitting .298/.327/.462 with six doubles, a triple, five homers, and 14 RBI. Since May 1st, Flores is hitting .366/.398/.573 off of right-handed pitching.
In essence, Flores is not just the Mets best choice at third base. Right now, Flores is the best hitter in the Mets lineup. Sure, he will likely be supplanted by another player on the roster. However, that player is likely to be Michael Conforto or Yoenis Cespedes. It’s not going to be Reyes.
By the way, if you are interested in fielding your best defensive infield, Flores still needs to play ahead of Reyes. In 197.1 innings at third this year, Flores has a 1 DRS and a -2.3 UZR. No, those aren’t great numbers, but they are better numbers than Reyes is posting.
Overall, there is absolutely no reason why Reyes is in the starting lineup. Frankly, you could argue the Mets should have kept Sean Gilmartin and designated Reyes for assignment. At the very least, that would have kept T.J. Rivera, who is having a much better season than Reyes, on the roster.
But no, Reyes has been in the starting lineup for four straight games and five out of the last six games while appearing in all six games. That’s more than any other infielder on the roster. It needs to stop, and it needs to stop now. Unfortuantely, with Reyes’ sizzling hot 1-4 with an RBI last night, it’s not likely Collins will reduce his playing time.
Editor’s Note: This was first published on MMO.
With the 2017 MLB Draft having begun and the Mets selecting David Peterson and Mark Vientos in the first two rounds, now is a good time to review the selections the Mets made last year and check-in to see how these players are progressing. The one thing that really stands out with all of these players is the inordinate amount of injury issues the Mets have had with these players over the past two seasons. Still, despite this, there are a number of players who have shown real talent and provide hope for the future for the Mets organization.
BIG STEPS FORWARD
2B Michael Paez, 4th round (130th overall)
MMN Rank 50
2016 Stats (Brooklyn) 46 G, 201 PA, 179 AB, 18 R, 34 H, 11 2B, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 8 SB, 6 CS, .190/.270/.285
2017 Stats (Columbia) 58 G, 236 PA, 199 AB, 30 R, 58 H, 20 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 38 RBI, 7 SB, 4 CS, .291/.386/.503
Paez has shown the type of power that led the Mets to draft him. So far this season, he leads the Sally League in doubles, and he is top five in total bases. So far this year, he is easily having the best season out of all the 2016 draft picks.
RHP Austin McGeorge, 7th Round (220th overall)
MMN RANK 59
2016 Stats (Brooklyn) 0-1, 2.84 ERA, 16 G, SV, 19.0 IP, 1.474 WHIP, 8.5 K/9
2017 Stats (Columbia & St. Lucie) 0-1, 1.84 ERA, 16 G, SV, 29.1 IP, 1.023 WHIP, 11.66 K/9
A hot start for McGeorge this year led to a quick promotion to St. Lucie where he has continued his dominance out of the bullpen. Whereas last year, left-handed batters hit well against him, he has become a platoon neutral pitcher. More than that, McGeorge is learning how to put batters away with a huge increase in his strikeout rate.
RHP Max Kuhns, 21st Round (640th overall) –
2016 Stats (Kingsport) 0-0, 6.28 ERA, 13 G, SV, 14.1 IP, 1.395 WHIP, 9.4 K/9
2017 Stats (Columbia) 1-0, 2.10 ERA, 17 G, 5 SV, 25.2 IP, 0.896 WHIP, 13.0 K/9
There is perhaps no Mets prospect that has shown more improvement than what Kuhns has shown this year. He has learned how to control his pitches, and more importantly, he has learned how to attack hitters. He has started to become the team’s primary option at closer, and he has been named a Sally League All Star.
INJURY ISSUES
LHP Anthony Kay, 1st Round (31st overall)
After he was drafted last year, it was discovered he needed Tommy John surgery. It is not likely we will see him pitching in the minor leagues until next season.
1B Peter Alonso, 2nd Round (64th overall)
MMN RANK 12
2016 Stats (Brooklyn) 30 G, 123 PA, 109 AB, 20 R, 35 H, 12 2B, 3B, 5 HR, 21 RBI, CS, .321/.382/.587
2017 Stats (St. Lucie) 18 G, 71 PA, 68 AB, 3 R, 10 H, 2 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, CS, .147/.183/.265
Similar to Dunn, the Mets rewarded Alonso for an outstanding season in Brooklyn by having him skip Colombia and having him start the year with St. Lucie. Also like Dunn, Alonso has struggled this year. We have not seen the same power from him that we saw last year. It should be cautioned that may be the result of his having suffered a broken hand earlier in the season.
3B Blake Tiberi, 3rd Round (100th overall)
MMN RANK 47
2016 Stats (Brooklyn) 56 G, 225 PA, 196 AB, 21 R, 46 H, 6 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 24 RBI, 2 SB, 6 CS, .235/.316/.316
2017 Stats (Columbia) 5 G, 22 PA, 18 AB, 3 R, 3 H, 2B, 2 RBI, SB, .167/.318/.222
It is hard to glean anything from Tiberi as he had suffered a torn UCL requiring him to have season ending Tommy John surgery this May.
SS Colby Woodmansee, 5th Round (160th overall)
MMN RANK 40
2016 Stats (Brooklyn) 64 G, 276 PA, 249 AB, 30 R, 64 H, 11 2B, 2 HR, 29 RBI, 4 SB, 3 CS, .257/.305/.325
2017 Stats (St. Lucie) 2 G, 8 PA, 7 AB, .000/.125/.000
Woodmansee was the standout shortstop in the New York Penn League last year. Although he cooled off after a hot start, he still showed enough to skip Columbia and begin the year in St. Lucie. Unfortunately, after his first two games, Woodmansee needed surgery to repair a core muscle tear, and he has been reassigned to Brooklyn.
RHP Colin Holderman, 9th Round (280th overall)
MMN RANK 68
2016 Stats (Kingsport) 1-0, 3.86 ERA, 13 G, 3 SV, 18.2 IP, 1.500 WHIP, 6.3 K/9
2017 Stats (Columbia) 1-2, 4.60 ERA, 4 G, 4 GS, 15.2 IP, 0.830 WHIP, 9.8 K/9
After a promising start to begin the season, Holderman struggled, and eventually found himself on the seven day disabled list. The undisclosed injury has kept Holderman out since April 29th, and it is still unknown when he can return.
OF Jacob Zanon, 15th Round (460th overall)
MMN RANK 93
2016 Stats (Brooklyn) 44 G, 184 PA, 157 AB, 19 R, 31 H, 6 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 20 SB, 2 CS, .197/.284/.287
2017 Stats (Columbia) 4 G, 13 PA, 8 AB, 3 R, 4 H, 3B, RBI, 4 SB .500/.692/.750
Zanon got off to a hot start showing the ability to not only get on base, but to utilize his terrific speed. Unfortunately, for the second straight season, he has not played a game since leaving an April 10th game after being hit in the helmet. While it is not known if it was related to the beaning or last year’s torn labrum, Zanon is on the seven day disabled list, and it is unknown when he can return this season.
UNEVEN PROGRESSION
RHP Justin Dunn, 1st Round (19th overall)
MMN RANK 6
2016 Stats (Brooklyn) 1-1, 1.50 ERA, 11 G, 8 GS, 30.0 IP, 1.167 WHIP, 10.5 K/9
2017 Stats (St. Lucie) 4-3, 4.81 ERA, 11 G, 8 GS, 48.2 IP, 1.521 WHIP, 6.5 K/9
After a promising half season with Brooklyn, Dunn skipped Colombia and started the season with St. Lucie. Dunn struggled, and he was temporarily moved to the bullpen to help him figure things out. In his first start back in the rotation, he pitched five scoreless innings with no walks and seven strikeouts, which seems to indicate he’s back on track.
OF Gene Cone, 10th Round (310th overall)
MMN RANK 90
2016 Stats (Brooklyn) 60 G, 261 PA, 229 AB, 35 R, 52 H, 6 2B, 3B, HR, 17 RBI, 9 SB, 4 CS, .227/.312/.275
2017 Stats (Columbia) 57 G, 249 PA, 209 AB, 32 R, 52 H, 8 2B, 2 3B, 22 RBI, 6 SB, 2 CS, .249/.361/.306
Cone has a refined approach at the plate, and he has the ability to get on base. However, at this point in his career, he is not hitting for much power. In order to progress further, he is going to have to start driving the ball more.
C Dan Rizzie, 13th Round (400th overall)
2016 Stats (Brooklyn) 33 G, 126 PA, 105 AB, 10 R, 17 H, 3 2B, 3B, 8 RBI, 3 SB, 2 CS, .162/.286/.210
2017 Stats (St. Lucie) 19 G, 67 PA, 56 AB, 2 R, 9 H, 2B, RBI, .161/.284/.179
Rizzie has certainly lived up to his billing as a defensive minded catcher who struggles offensively. While he is sound behind the plate, his 28% caught stealing percent this year is disappointing for someone who’s calling card is defense.
LF Jay Jabs, 17th Round (520th overall) –
2016 Stats (Brooklyn) 52 G, 200 PA, 175 AB, 13 R, 31 H, 6 2B, 3B, 12 RBI, 2 SB, 3 CS, .177/.275/.223
2017 Stats (Columbia) 30 G, 108 PA, 94 AB, 11 R, 18 H, 7 2B, HR, 14 RBI, .191/.296/.298
After struggling in the infield last year, he was transitioned to the outfield. It’s been difficult to find him playing time with a lot of players in Columbia who command playing time, Tim Tebow included, and the fact that he has not maximized his limited opportunities.
RHP Adam Atkins, 18th Round (550th overall) –
2016 Stats (Brooklyn) 0-2, 3.71 ERA, 19 G, 17.0 IP, .471 WHIP, 11.6 K/9
2017 Stats (Columbia & St. Lucie) 1-0, 5.54 ERA, 10 G, 13.0 IP, 2.000 WHIP, 9.7 K/9
After struggling with St. Lucie to start the year, he was demoted to Columbia where he has pitched much better. While it was surprising Atkins had reverse splits last year with his 3/4 delivery, that has normalized this year with left-handed batters teeing off on him this year. Still, there is promise for him with him holding right-handed batters to a .188 batting average against in Columbia.
RHP Gary Cornish, 19th Round (580th overall)
2016 Stats (Brooklyn) 0-0, 2.16 ERA, 14 G, 3 SV, 25.0 IP, 1.080 WHIP, 15.8 K/9
2017 Stats (Columbia) 1-1, 2.19 ERA, 2 G, 2 GS, 12.1 IP, 0.982 WHIP, 7.3 K/9
After an outstanding season for Brooklyn last year, the Mets decided Cornish should be transitioned to the rotation. His start to the season was delayed as Cornish was suspended for 50 games for testing positive for amphetamine use. His is off to a strong start to the 2017.
2B Nick Sergakis, 23rd Round (700th overall)
2016 Stats (Brooklyn) 38 G, 167 PA, 143 AB, 21 R, 36 H, 10 2B, 2 Hr, 15 RBI, 11 SB, .252/.353/.364
2017 Stats (St. Lucie) 29 G, 107 PA, 90 AB, 15 R, 21 H, 8 2B, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 4 SB, .233/.330/.456
Sergakis got off to a hot start to his professional career, but he soon fell off, and he became a part-time player. While he has made the most of his opportunities this year, he has not yet done enough to crack the starting lineup on a consistent basis.
YET TO PLAY THIS YEAR
RHP Chris Viall, 6th Round (190th overall)
MMN RANK 81
2016 Stats (Kingsport) 0-2, 6.75 ERA, 9 G, 6 GS, 20.0 IP, 1.750 WHIP, 12.2 K/9
The one thing that really stands out for Viall is his ability to strike out batters. A large part of that is his ability to get his fastball up to 101 MPH. In college, he split time between the rotation and the bullpen. For now, the Mets are keeping Viall in the rotation. My interview with him can be found here.
LHP Placido Torres, 8th Round (250th overall)
2016 Stats (Kingsport) 2-2, 3.38 ERA, 13 G, 18.2 IP, 1.500 WHIP, 12.5 K/9
After a partial season pitching out of the bullpen, Torres will be used as a starting pitcher this year.
RHP Cameron Planck, 11th Round (340th overall)
MMN RANK 34
The Mets were prudent with this high school arm that they were surprisingly able to sign last year. He will likely being the season with one of the partial season affiliates come the end of the month.
RHP Matt Cleveland, 12th Round (370th overall)
MMN RANK 51
2016 Stats (Gulf Coast) 0-1, 12.27 ERA, 7 G, 7.1 IP, 2.455 WHIP, 2.5 K/9
The only thing we have learned about Cleveland is the pre-draft reports of him struggling with consistency and control proved to be true in his seven innings for Gulf Coast.
RHP Christian James, 14th Round (430th overall)
MMN RANK 86
2016 Stats (Gulf Coast) 0-1, 0.52 ERA, 14 G, 3 SV, 17.1 IP, 0.923 WHIP, 7.8 K/9
Labelled as a power pitcher, James certainly lived up to the billing with a dominant year with the Gulf Coast Mets.
RHP Trent Johnson, 16th Round (490th overall)
MMN RANK 98
2016 Stats (Kingsport) 0-3, 6.61 ERA, 14 G, 16.1 IP, 1.531 WHIP, 7.7 K/9
While Johnson’s stats looked ugly, it should be noted it was mostly the result of a terrible July. Those six appearances aside, he had a 2.70 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. Essentially, he had a strong start and a strong finish which give you reason to believe the developing pitcher could still put it all together.
CF Ian Strom, 22nd Round (670th overall) –
2016 Stats (Kingsport) 37 G, 166 PA, 145 AB, 19 R, 33 H, 9 2B, 2 3B, 10 RBI, 9 SB, 4 CS, .228/.319/.317
Strom’s game is speed, and he best utilized it last year in the outfield where he was named Kingsport’s Gold Glover.
RHP Dariel Rivera, 24th Round (730th overall) –
2016 Stats (Gulf Coast) 0-0, 2.79 ERA, 8 G, SV, 9.2 IP, 1.241 WHIP, 2.8 K/9
The 18 year old out of Puerto Rico is a project in terms of developing more consistency in every aspect of his game. Once he develops more consistency, we may be better able to gauge exactly what he could be for the Mets.
RHP Eric Villanueva, 30th Round (910th overall) –
2016 Stats (Gulf Coast) 0-1, 6.97 ERA, 10 G, 10.1 IP, 2.323 WHIP, 4.4 K/9
Like Rivera, he is a project that needs to develop physically. The hope is that once he does begin to mature, his fastball velocity will increase from the low 80s towards the upper 80s or somewhere in the 90s.
LF Jeremy Wolf, 31st Round (940th overall)
MMN RANK 70
2016 Stats (Kingsport) 50 G, 206 PA, 183 AB, 31 R, 53 H, 12 2B, 3B, 5 HR, 33 RBI, CS, .290/.359/.448
Despite coming out of a Division III school, Wolf was seen as a polished hitter. He certainly proved that last year for Kingsport. Somewhat surprisingly, Wolf was not assigned to a full season affiliate. This may have been a result of him being blocked by Alonso and the Mets wanting to get another look at Dash Winningham at Columbia.
RHP Garrison Bryant, 36th Round (1,090 overall) –
2016 Stats (Gulf Coast) 0-0, 9.72 ERA, 7 G, 8.1 IP, 2.040 WHIP, 5.4 K/9
Bryant is a raw pitcher with some talent who for the first time this year will be solely focusing upon baseball. There is a possibility he could both harness and refine his pitches leading to him taking a big step forward this season.
Editor’s Note: This was first published on Mets Minors
At the end of last year, Seth Lugo was everything the Mets needed. He was a terrific arm in the bullpen who made Anthony Rizzo look downright silly with one of his curveballs. He transitioned to the starting rotation after the rash of injuries, and he was terrific there too. Overall, Lugo had a largely unheralded season going 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.097 WHIP.
The offseason was a different season. Many an article was written about the majesty of Lugo’s curveball. In the World Baseball Classic, he was the ace of a Puerto Rican team that went all the way to the championship game. As the team ace, Lugo dazzled with his full repertoire, curveball included. The amazing thing to think watching his was that arm wasn’t good enough to crack the Mets starting rotation.
Then disaster struck not just to Lugo, but the Mets team as a whole. Lugo went down, and the Mets starters either were injured or under-performed. Lugo, who was once seen as a luxury for a Mets team purportedly deep in pitching, was now seen as a necessity. The team needed him back, and they needed him back in the rotation. They needed him to be the pitcher he was at the end of 2016. Ideally, they wanted the pitcher they saw in the World Baseball Classic.
Yesterday, we saw Lugo go out there and dominate. For a Mets team that has struggled to get their pitchers past the fifth inning, Lugo pitched seven innings, and he needed just 90 pitches to do so. It wasn’t a mirage either. Lugo did to the Braves what he did all of last year.
For those that forget, Lugo is a throwback. He doesn’t max out on every pitch. He pitches to contact because he’s the type of pitcher who is comfortable the opposition is not going to hit him very hard. When he gets in trouble, he adds a little more to his fastball, and he increases his curveball rate. This is a major reason why he is able to consistently get out of trouble.
The best example of that was the fifth inning. After Lugo walked Matt Kemp, the Braves had bases loaded with no outs, and Matt Adams coming to the plate. In that spot, Lugo did his job. He got the ground ball from the slow footed Adams he needed.
https://twitter.com/MLBReplays/status/873988655861440512
That play was also reminiscent of what led the 2016 Mets to the postseason. As we have seen time and time again, Asdrubal Cabrera has little to no range at shortstop. His real value is being able to make the plays at short that he can get field. Him and Neil Walker combine to make a veteran up the middle combination that do everything they can to ensure they can turn that double play. There was no wasted motion by either infielder, which helped them JUST get Adams to get out of the inning preserving the 2-1 lead.
The Mets got the 2-1 lead by playing some small ball. Michael Conforto led off the game with a double off Braves starter Jaime Garcia. Juan Lagares followed by sacrificing him to third, and Conforto would score on a Wilmer Flores sacrifice fly. It was the old get’em on, get ’em over, and get ’em in type of baseball. It may not always be the most effective way to score runs, but when executed as perfectly as the Mets did in the first inning, it has its own beauty.
In the third inning, Lugo helped himself hitting a one out double, and he moved to second on a Conforto ground out. Lagares came up, and he did what he needed to do most in that spot. He put the ball in play. Lagares hit a chopper to the left of Braves third baseman Johan Camargo who made a diving stop, but there was no throw. You can debate whether it was Camargo never quite fully getting control of the ball or Lagares’ speed. Either which way, Lagares got what was the game winning hit.
From there, the Mets had base runners in every inning but the eighth inning. However, they could not push the insurance runs across the plate. The seminal moment was the ninth inning. Jose Ramirez quickly put Walker and Cabrera on. After two quick outs, Curtis Granderson hit a pinch hit infield single to load the bases. This seemed like a big spot for Conforto. It wasn’t.
The Braves went to Ian Krol, and the Mets countered with Yoenis Cespedes. Look, it’s easy to criticize Collins in this spot. Conforto was 2-4 with a double in the game. He’s a much better hitter against left-handed pitching this year hitting .265/.390/.559 off of them this year. Collins was taking out a hitter going well for a cold hitter just off the Disabled List. But, this is Cespedes. Right now, it’s a fair debate over who is the better hitter right now. With the way Krol has been dominating left-handed batter this year, Cespedes was the right choice. His popping out to end the inning doesn’t change that.
With the lack of insurance runs, that meant the game was now in the hands of the Mets defense and bullpen. For most of the season, this has spelled disaster. Today, it worked.
Cabrera made a nice diving stop to get out of the seventh. With Nick Markakis and Adams due up in the eighth, Collins was able to go to Jerry Blevins for a full inning, and he pitched a perfect inning. Addison Reed, who has been much better of late, came on to pitch a perfect ninth for his 11th save.
Just like that, the Mets look like the team we expected them to be. The veterans are playing solid if not spectacular baseball. The starting pitching is going deep into games. The left-handed batters can’t hit Blevins. Reed looks like the dominant reliever he has been since joining the Mets. The Mets are dominating bad baseball teams like the Braves.
As good as this feels right now, we’re about to find out if this team is for real with the Cubs and Nationals coming into town.
Game Notes: Jose Reyes started for the third time in this series. He’s now in a 2-30 streak and his -1.1 WAR is the second worst among National League infielders. This is the first time all season three Mets pitchers pitched into the seventh inning in consecutive games.
When David Wright was diagnosed with the spinal stenosis, the comparisons to Don Mattingly were quick. Sadly, with each passing day Wright is unable to even throw a baseball, those comparisons become more and more apt.
Both were Hall of Fame talents that have seen their careers fall short of that mark because of their injuries. Mattingly was forced to retired a 34, and if Wright is unable to play another game, his career will be over at 33. They were both corner infielders for New York teams, and they both became team captains. They are both beloved by New York fans. With so many similarities between the two, the question is which is the better player.
In his 14 year career, Mattingly hit .307/.358/.471 with 442 doubles, 20 triples, 222 homers, 1,099 RBI, and 14 stolen bases. His 162 game averages were 40 doubles, two triples, 20 homers, 100 RBI, and one stolen base. He was named to six All Star teams and won nine Gold Gloves and three Silver Sluggers. Mattingly was the 1985 American League MVP, and he had three top five MVP finishes.
On the advanced metrics side, Mattingly had a career 42.2 WAR, 127 OPS+, and a 124 wRC+. More than that, Mattingly was a genuine superstar in the mid 80s, who was widely considered one of the best players in all of baseball.
For his part, Wright has played 13 years for the New York Mets hitting .296/.376/.491 with 390 doubles, 26 triples, 242 homes, 970 RBI, and 196 stolen bases. His 162 game averages are 40 doubles, three triples, 25 homers, 99 RBI, and 20 stolen bases. He has been named to seven All Star teams and won two Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers. Wright never won an MVP, and he had just one top five finish.
On the advanced metrics side, Wright had a career 49.9 WAR, 133 OPS+, and a 133 wRC+. Like Mattingly, Wright was a genuine superstar who was once named the Face of the MLB and who Bill James once said he would begin a franchise with Wright.
And at least in this debate, James is 100% correct. Between Mattingly and Wright, Wright is the better player. Looking at the traditional and objective stats, Mattingly leads Wright in batting average, doubles, and RBI. This means Wright leads in OBP, slugging, triples, homers, and stolen bases. While the two are reasonably close in most catergories, Wright added the dimension of speed to his game.
When looking at 162 game averages, Mattingly has the edge in just batting average and RBI, and with RBI, he only has an edge by one RBI per season. Year in and year out, Wright was the better player.
This is where many people will want to cite Mattingly’s Gold Gloves and MVP award. Now, it is fair to saw Mattingly was the better defender, but being a better defender does not make one a better overall player. Certainly, that’s where advanced stats like WAR come in handy as it analyzes a player’s complete game.
Not only does Wright have a higher career WAR, he averages a higher WAR per season. For his career, Wright averaged a 3.8 WAR to Mattingly’s 3.0. Another consideration is Wright has had better year’s than Mattingly’s MVP year.
In Mattingly’s 1985 MVP season, he hit .324/.371/.567 with 48 doubles, three triples, 35 homers, 145 RBI, and two stolen bases with a 6.4 WAR. In 2007, Wright hit .325/.416/.546 with 42 doubles, a triple, 30 homers, 107 RBI, and 34 stolen bases with an 8.3 WAR. That year, Wright finished fourth in the MVP voting.
It should be noted Mattingly never had a WAR as high as Wright had in 2007. Mattingly’s single season high in WAR was 7.2. Wright had two seasons of at least 7.0 WAR.
A final consideration is Wright did not have the benefits Mattingly had in his career. Mattingly had the short porch in left field at Yankee Stadium and ownership that was fully invested in winning. Wright had to deal with the cavernous and ill-conceived Citi Field during the prime of his career and ownership struggling under the Madoff scandal.
Overall, Wright was just a better player than Mattingly. That doesn’t diminish the terrific career Mattingly had. Unfortuantely, it doesn’t propel Wright into the Hall of Fame. Ultimately, that is the shame because both of these players should be in Cooperstown, but they aren’t through no fault of their own.
The Mets have a number of excuses why they are in the position they are. Those excuses mostly surround the pitching. Noah Syndergaard went down in April with a torn lat. Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom haven’t been the same since returning from their season ending surgeries. There has been a revolving door at the fifth starter spot that has seen the likes of Rafael Montero, Adam Wilk, Tommy Milone, and Tyler Pill. This has put stress on the bullpen, and the bullpen broke.
They broke because Jeurys Familia went down for the season. Hansel Robles couldn’t keep up with the workload and fell apart. Josh Smoker hasn’t been able to figure it out this year. Addison Reed is a much better set-up man than a closer.
Through all of this, despite playing a weak schedule, the Mets are seven games under .500. The Mets are THIS CLOSE to being sellers.
However, there is hope. Seth Lugo and Steven Matz are coming off the Disabled List. Last year, Lugo was 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.149 WHIP. He followed that breakout performance with a breakout performance in the World Baseball Classic.
Matz is even better than Lugo. Before succumbing to the bone spur in his elbow last year, Matz had a stretch from April 17th to June 18th where he was 7-2 with a 1.91 ERA and a 1.047 WHIP. That was after his rookie season where he was 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA and a 1.234 WHIP.
That combination of Lugo and Matz vastly improves the Mets rotation. It also bumps a good pitcher like Robert Gsellman into the bullpen. Lately, Gsellman has figured it out. In his last four appearances, he’s 2-0 with hold posting a 2.66 ERA and a 1.082 WHIP. This will give the bullpen a fresh arm. More than that, it means one of Smoker or Neil Ramirez is going to be gone from the bullpen.
Finally, the Mets will have the pitching to help an offense that has tried to carry this team. In May, the Mets averaged the second most runs per game (5.7) in the National League. Things promise to get better with Yoenis Cespedes having played in his first rull rehab game for St. Lucie last night.
With that, the Mets will have as complete a team as they can expect for the reason for the season. Now, they just have to take advantage of their opportunities. That starts with the four game series with a Braves team who is a half game up on the Mets for second place in the National League East. Sweep them, and the Mets will find themselves just three games under .500.
After that, the Mets have a seven game home stand. First, there are the Chicago Cubs, who are not the same team they were last year. After that, the Mets have a four game set with the Washington Nationals.
If the Mets take care of business against the Braves and Cubs, that could be a HUGE series for this Mets team. Sweep the Nationals at home, and all of a sudden the Mets could be just eight games back in the division or better. That’s still a large deficit to overcome, but it’s not as daunting as the 12 games they are now.
The Mets don’t take advantage of this opportunity? It’s time to sell. At that point, the team should look to move everyone to pave the way for Amed Rosario, who frankly should be here now, and Dominic Smith to become the David Wright and Jose Reyes of this generation.
If the Mets don’t want to do that, it’s time to take care of business. That starts tonight with a huge start for Matt Harvey. This used to be the exact moment you wanted him on the mound. It is time for that to happen again.
Back when the Mets traded Carlos Beltran for Zack Wheeler, the Mets touted the trade as the team adding another potential ace that would one day serve as one of the cornerstones of a rotation that would bring the Mets their third World Series title. Unfortunately, with Wheeler missing two years after his Tommy John surgery, it hasn’t happened that way.
In the time he was gone, he almost became expendable. Matt Harvey was the ace in 2013, and he was well on his way in 2015 to re-claiming that spot. Jacob deGrom went from 2014 Rookie of the Year to the Game 1 starter of the 2015 NLDS. Noah Syndergaard brought a repertoire that included a 100 MPH fastball and a mid 90s slider. Throw in the tantalizing talent of Steven Matz, and the Mets almost moved Wheeler in 2015 as part of the ill-fated Carlos Gomez deal. With Gomez’s hips, Wheeler remained a Met, but after he missed all of 2016 as well, he was almost an afterthought.
Now, he has gone from damaged goods to the staff ace. After shaking off some rust in the early part of the season, he really has been a dominant starting pitchers. Since May, Wheeler has made six starts going 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA, 1.431 WHIP, and a 7.7 K/9 while averaging over six inning per start. Last night, we watched Wheeler play the part of the stopper with him going seven strong and giving the Mets a chance to snap the Mets out of a funk that saw the team lose five out of its last six games.
Now, many would point to the fact Wheeler is now the staff ace because the rest of the rotation is either injured or has struggled. Syndergaard is likely gone for the year with a torn lat. Matz and Seth Lugo have yet to throw a pitch this season. Harvey and deGrom have not been the same pitchers after last year’s season ending surgeries. And frankly, anyone is better than Rafael Montero, Adam Wilk, and Tommy Milone. Still, even if everyone was pitching to their best abilities, Wheeler would stand out.
It’s easy to forget, but we did get a taste of this with Wheeler. In 2014, Wheeler had a stretch from July until September 6th where he made 12 terrific starts. In those starts, Wheeler was 7-1 with a 2.28 ERA, 1.213 WHIP, and an 8.9 K/9. During that stretch, Wheeler looked like the ace the Mets thought they were getting when they traded away Beltran. It was during that stretch where you believed the three starters who would carry the Mets to the World Series were Harvey, deGrom, and Wheeler.
It seems as if Wheeler is recapturing some of what he was back in that terrific 2014 stretch. If he is, he is certainly becoming the ace the Mets believed he could be. More than anything, he is the ace the Mets need right now.