Musings
When looking at the trade where the Mets acquired Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz, there are already a number of developments to show why this trade was horrible for the Mets.
The most obvious is the respective performances of Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn with both of them shooting up the prospect rankings. That goes double for Kelenic.
There’s also the performance of Cano. By the looks of it, the Mets may not even get one good year from the 36 year old second baseman coming off a PED suspension. Remember, this is just year one of a five year $100 million commitment.
As bad and/or injured as Cano has been, no one could have reasonably predicted he wouldn’t be as good as Jay Bruce has been this year. For that matter, he hasn’t even been as good as Anthony Swarzak. To make it all the worse, the Mariners traded Swarzak to the Braves and Bruce to the Phillies.
Essentially, the end result of the trade is Bruce, Swarzak, and Cano have been working to keep the Mets out of the postseason. That’s well beyond what most assumed would be the reasonably pondered worst case scenario for this trade.
And again, this is just year one of Cano. Mets fans should shudder to see year five . . . and that’s when Dunn and Kelenic should reasonably be contributing at the MLB level.
Not good. Not good at all.
During Sandy Alderson’s tenure as the Mets General Manager, he did quite well in the first round. Those first round picks included Brandon Nimmo, Michael Fulmer, Gavin Cecchini, Kevin Plawecki, Dominic Smith, Michael Conforto, Justin Dunn, Anthony Kay, David Peterson, and Jarred Kelenic.
All of the players drafted prior to 2015 have played at the Major League level. They are only one of eight franchises who can say all of their first round picks in that time span reached the Major League level. Of those six players drafted prior to 2015, five of them have established themselves as bona fide Major League players with the jury still being out on Cecchini, who is still just 25 years old.
Nimmo was the second best hitter in the National League last year. Conforto and Plawecki were a part of a pennant winner with Conforto hitting two homers in a World Series game. Conforto and Fulmer have already been named All Stars. So far, this group has a Rookie of the Year and two All-Star appearances.
Fulmer, Dunn, and Kelenic were moved for pieces which were traded to help improve the Major League club. While people have disagreements with the respective trades, the deals brought back Yoenis Cespedes, Robinson Cano, and Edwin Diaz, each of whom are established All-Star caliber players.
Looking at the 10 first round draft picks, all but one of them have made some form of a top 100 prospect list since being drafted by the team. It may come as some surprise that includes Cecchini, who was named a KATOH Top 100 pick by Fangraphs, and Peterson, who was named a top 100 prospect by ESPN‘s Keith Law. In fact, the one who hasn’t is Kay, who right now appears on the cusp of getting named to a list on a midseason update or sometime next year.
Overall, the Mets have drafted talented players they have used to both build a strong core to the current Mets roster and to acquire players in the hopes of winning a World Series. With Kay and Peterson in Double-A, they can soon be part of the current core’s push to win the Mets first World Series since 1986.
That’s the legacy in front of Van Wagenen and Baty. For Van Wagenen, he has to show he has the ability to add talent to the organization the way Alderson did during his tenure as the General Manager. For Baty, he has to prove he can be every bit as talented as the players who came before him.
You may want to get upset with Edwin Diaz for blowing a game the Mets probably needed in the worst way. The team was about to get over .500, and they were going to earn at least a split in a road series against the best team in the National League. Instead, despite being ahead in the count against the six batters he actually faced, he would not record an out until Alex Verdugo‘s game winning sacrifice fly.
Entering the game, Diaz’s stats looked great. He was 1-2 converting 13/14 save attempts with a 1.64 ERA, 1.045 WHIP, and a 14.3 K/9. After his performance against the Dodgers, he looks much more like a mediocre reliever with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.299 WHIP.
However, Diaz is not mediocre. As we’ve seen with the Mets and his time with the Mariners, he is a lights out closer who comes in a strikes out the side. With how he’s performed, many have made the assertion he is the best closer in baseball. Diaz has made his case, but that is something which is far from a certainty.
Before proceeding, it is extremely important to note Diaz has been under a heavy workload. He has appeared eight times over an 11 day span, and that does not include the times he has been dry humped. What his stats now are reflect the wear and tear and fatigue which has been the result of how he has been used recently. In reality, it would be unfair to criticize him for not being able to withstand this stretch, and really it’s unfair to criticize him for one bad outing.
Still, there are some warning signs when it comes to Diaz.
Already this season, Diaz has allowed five homers which is the same amount as he did all of last year. It should some as no surprise his 25.0% HR/FB already stands as a career worst. The 55.6% hard hit rate is also a career worst. He’s allowing more line drives and getting fewer ground balls. Some of that is reflective of last night, and some of that is reflective of him not being quite the guy he was last year.
When you look at Diaz’s young career, you see two really good seasons and one average one. Certainly, with this being just his fourth season, it is too early to suggest this is a pattern and this will be a mediocre year. After all, he was dominant over his first 24 appearances. It is way too soon to suggest yesterday was more than a blip.
However, it is also too soon to suggest he’s not going to regress from what he was over his first 24 appearances. He is getting hit harder, and he is bowing under the workload, a workload which admittedly could be too much for any closer. Still, fair or not, this is what the Mets need from him right now, and at least last night, he didn’t deliver.
Overall, it is way too soon to suggest there is more to yesterday than just one bad outing. Diaz has two great seasons, and he had a great start to the season. Still, there are warning signs. Hopefully, this is just a blip on what should be a great year for someone we believe to be a great closer. Time will certainly tell.
The one thing we do know is Diaz isn’t perfect. Mickey Callaway needs to back off to get Diaz back to back to being the pitcher he can be. In order for that to happen Brodie Van Wagenen has to do his job and get his manager some reliable arms in that bullpen. If that happens, there should be no causes for concern. If it doesn’t, well, we will see what happens.
Back in 1986, my aunt was living with us, and she was engaged to a man who would be my uncle in less than a year. Both families were crazy Mets fans, and so the families decided the best time to have an engagement party was for Game 6 of the 1986 World Series. I don’t remember much about that party or that season, but the six year old me remembers the roar in my parent’s basement as Mookie Wilson‘s grounder went between Bill Buckner‘s legs.
It’s not always a scene you see. In-laws openly embracing each other jumping up and down in joy. Really, aside from the birth of a baby, can you think of something that could bring families that much together and that much joy?
But that was our joy. For Buckner, it was obviously humiliating, and oddly enough, it was something he feared heading into that World Series. It’s hard to imagine your worst nightmares becoming true, and then becoming a scapegoat for Calvin Schiraldi and Bob Stanley choking, Rich Gedman whiffing on a ball he should have caught, and John McNamara having one of the worst games and series anyone has ever seen.
Sure, Buckner would got 2-for-4 in Game 7, and he would start an eighth inning rally for a desperate team, but like the Red Sox rally there, it was too little too late. He became a villain in Boston, and he would struggle the following year leading to his eventual release. In many ways, he never quite got to make up for the loss which was somewhat unfairly attributed to him. Worse yet, he was chased out of his Massachusetts home to live on the other side of the county.
Despite all that, Buckner had a life well worth living.
Even with him being chased out of Boston, he would not be chased out of baseball. He was the hitting coach for the 1996 – 1997 Chicago White Sox. By OPS+, Frank Thomas would have the second best year of his Hall of Fame career under Buckner’s tutelage. By wRC+, over that two year span, the White Sox had the sixth best offense in the Majors. This was the last time Buckner got to wear a Major League uniform on the field.
As the years progressed, Buckner would do autograph shows with Mookie Wilson, and the two would eventually become friends. There is a certain integrity in a man who did not hide from the worst moment in his life. There’s more integrity to stand there and be accountable like he was at the autograph shows and when he was there for MLB Network for the re-telling of the game. More than any of that, Buckner never pointed his fingers towards his manager or teammate. Rather, he accepted the blame for his role like the real man he was – a real man who raised a family with two daughters and a son.
Time heals all wounds, and it would for Buckner. Finally, after the Red Sox broke the curse and won the World Series, he was able to return to Fenway. Instead of being chased from the park, he was cheered, and he threw out the first pitch. Eventually, Buckner, himself, would be in on the joke appearing in a hysterical episode of Curb Your Enthusiasm where this time he saved the day by making a catch:
That would mark the second time for me Buckner would bring me joy. The first was his worst moment. The second was one of his best.
In his life, Buckner brought joy to millions in his best times. He won a batting title with the Cubs in 1980, and he was an All-Star for that team a year later. He helped the 1974 Dodgers get to the World Series. He was a good player with 2,715 hits, which was more than many Hall of Famers.
Overall, Buckner was a good ballplayer who had a bad moment. It was a moment which will forever follow him, and it is a moment which forever defined him. In 1986, he might have defined him as a choker who was not welcome in Boston. By 2019, it defined him as a human being who was able to persevere to have a good life. Fortunately, that is the man we remember today, and it will be the man who will be remembered going forward.
Rest in Peace, Bill Buckner.
Right now, the Mets outfield depth is a mess. Michael Conforto suffered a concussion, and while early indications are positive, no one can be quite sure when he will return. Jeff McNeil has been dealing with an abdominal issue. Keon Broxton was designated for assignment, and now, Brandon Nimmo was placed on the IL with a neck injury he’s been dealing with all season.
Due to that situation, the Mets needed to call up another outfielder. The problem there was with the 40 man roster full someone was going to have to be designated for assignment. That person wound up being Paul Sewald.
Assuredly, the reaction from most Mets fans is who cares, or that Sewald stinks, and he should have been designated for assignment long ago. With Sewald going 107 Major League appearances without a win and his having a career 5.18 ERA, you could understand the point. However, that point misses the overall point. Sewald had actual value and use to this Mets team.
So far this year, Sewald has made four appearances. Three of those appearances were for more than three outs. Yes, the Mets lost by a heavy margin in each of those games, and that is part of the reason why it was Sewald who pitched. It also underscores Sewald’s value to this Mets team. He is the pitcher who is able to come in and absorb innings saving the rest of the bullpen in these blowouts.
Last year, Sewald pitched multiple innings in 18 of his first 32 appearances. Overall in his career, he has pitched multiple innings in 30 percent of his relief appearances. When Sewald has been on the roster, this means he is the one who gets the brunt of the mop up work thereby leaving Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman to perform their multiple inning magic on another day.
And after Sewald mops things up, with his options, the team can just send him to Syracuse for another reliever. This matters, and it helps teams win.
More than what he does well, Sewald is just better than the pitchers the Mets kept over him. As previously explained, he has been a better and more effective Major League reliever than Jacob Rhame. Tim Peterson has a worse Major League ERA, FIP, H/9, K/9, and K/BB. Ryan O’Rourke has always had control issues as exemplified by his walking three of the six batters he faced this year. Clearly, Sewald has been better than these pitchers in his career.
In the end, that may be what matters most. The Mets had options upon whom to designate for assignment (or in Rhame’s case, release) with the aforementioned four relievers being the most likely targets. When boiling it all down, the Mets opted to remove the most effective reliever who also happened to be the one reliever who the organization could consistently rely upon to save the bullpen by going multiple innings in his relief appearances.
Yes, Peterson would be designated for assignment after the Mets claimed Aaron Altherr, but that is also besides the point. The point here is the thought process and manner of dealing and operating.
Ultimately, even if fans want to be dismissive of Sewald and the decision, this was a mistake. Worse yet, it was an unforced error. While we may not know the full impact of such a decision, it will have some negative impact on the Mets, no matter how small. Still, even if you don’t believe that, we should still wonder about the poor decision making process which led to keeping three inferior relievers over Sewald.
On August 16, 2009, David Wright stepped up to the plate against Matt Cain, and he would get hit on the helmet knocking him unconscious. As a result of the hit by pitch, Wright would sustain a concussion. Up until that point in the season, Wright was hitting .324/.414/.467. He would miss 15 games, and in the 29 games after he returned, he would wear a ridiculously large helmet and hit .239/.289/.367.
For years, there would be questions about whether Wright could ever be the same player after getting hit by that pitch. Some would surmise he was gun shy on inside pitches. There were other theories as well. However, what is not oft discussed is whether the Mets were sufficiently cautious in bringing him back from his concussion.
That’s not a discussion people had with respect to Ryan Church,. In real time, people thought the Mets handling of him and his concussion went well beyond negligence. In fact, they showed ignorance and stupidity.
On May 20, 2008, Church slid into second base in an attempt to break up a double play. On the slide, Yunel Escobar‘s knee hit him in the helmet with such force it rendered Church unconscious. It was his second concussion in little more than three months. After missing just one game, he would board a plane and fly with the team to Colorado. It would be a couple of weeks before he hit the disabled list.
Prior to the concussion, Church as a revelation for the Mets. Over his first 43 games, he was hitting .311/.379/.534. After the concussion, he hit .241/.313/.342. He wasn’t much better in 2009, and to add insult to injury Mets manager Jerry Manuel questioned his toughness and went so far to cite how Wright came back from his concussion.
Of course, Manuel was such a terrible manager he was never aware of how Wright struggled after his concussion.
Effectively speaking, this concussion and the Mets handling of it ended Church’s career. He was never quite the same player again, and after the 2010 season, he was out of baseball. The same was likely the case for another Mets outfielder.
On July 23, 2010, Jason Bay ran head first into a wall at Dodger Stadium, and he suffered a concussion on the play. He’d fly back with the team from Los Angeles to New York.
While we remember Bay’s tenure with the Mets as a complete disappointment, at that point in the season he was an above average hitter with a 1.5 WAR on track for a near 3.0 WAR season. Despite the concussion, Bay would actually play two more games before being shut down for the rest of the year. To be fair Bay was not the hitter the Mets expected him to be. Although, no one was in the days of the Great Wall of Flushing.
As bad as Bay was in 2010, he kept getting worse in the ensuing years. He’d retire at the age of 34 after his $66 million contract expired.
If we are being honest, we do not know what impact concussions had on any of these players. With each player, there were extenuating circumstances. We have also seen concussions are not a death sentence for anyone’s career.
For example, Wright had a great 2010 season, and he would have great years leading up to his career ending spinal stenosis. Mike Piazza was concussed by a Roger Clemens fastball on July 8, 2000. He would return five days later, and he would hit .294/.380/.518 (which was a big drop-off for him) in a season where he would led the Mets to the World Series. He would also show no ill effects going forward with a great 2001 season. Ultimately, it was the wear and tear from catching and age, not the head injury, which led to the end of Piazza’s career.
No player is alike, and we have seen seemingly recovered athletes struggle from their returns from concussions. When handled poorly, you have the potential to ruin careers. We saw that with Church, and we have seen it with athletes in other sports as well.
This is the dilemma facing the Mets right now. So far, they have done everything right with Michael Conforto. They have apparently learned from their lessons from their gross mishandling of concussions in the past. That said, there is the natural pull from the team to rush him back from this injury.
With Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, and Robinson Cano on the IL, the team desperately needs him in the lineup. That said, they need a healthy and ready to play Conforto. When that time will be is anyone’s best guess. The key here for the Mets and especially for Conforto and his career is they guess right.
It doesn’t matter who is the General Manager or the manager. The Mets always want to tell everyone else they are wrong, and they are smarter than you. There is plenty of history on this front during the Wilpon Era.
Steve Phillips told us Alex Rodriguez was a 24 and 1 player. So, instead of pursuing A-Rod, he signed Tsuyoshi Shinjo, Kevin Appier, and Steve Trachsel to try to improve the team. When that didn’t work, he made a series of questionable moves over the ensuing two years which somehow led to Roger Cedeno being a center fielder. Ultimately, Bobby Valentine was fired, and he was not too far behind.
There were plenty of decisions past that point. The most recent example was Terry Collins‘ insistence that Michael Conforto was a platoon bat because he was a young left-handed hitter the team had no time to develop because they were trying to win. Somehow this led to Matt Reynolds making a start in left field despite never having played the position in his life.
Now, we are in the era of Brodie Van Wagenen and Mickey Callaway, and things remain the same way.
With Dominic Smith jumping out of the gate hitting well, Pete Alonso showing no signs of being overwhelmed as a rookie, and the team’s questionable outfield depth, everyone said it was time for Smith to get reps in the outfield again. Everyone included Mets hitting coach Chili Davis. The Mets scoffed at the idea and instead insisted it was better for Smith to be a younger version of Julio Franco or Lenny Harris.
The Mets gave up Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn in a deal which helped bring them Edwin Diaz. There were big games early in the season where the team needed their closer to go more than four outs. That was all the more the case with Jeurys Familia‘s struggles. But no, we were told Diaz is just a three out pitcher who was to be saved for save chances only.
To begin the season, Jacob deGrom had no consistency with the catchers behind the plate. That became more of an issue with Wilson Ramos not hitting or framing. Given how deGrom has reached Greg Maddux like status with this team, the strong suggestion was to make Tomas Nido his personal catcher as deGrom was the one pitcher who could easily overcome his lack of offense, especially with Nido’s pitch framing. Instead, the Mets said deGrom was not pitching well enough to warrant a personal catcher.
J.D. Davis was atrocious at third base. In fact, by DRS, he was the worst third baseman in the Majors. With him clearly not suited to the position, everyone said to the Mets they should at least try Davis in left field. It wasn’t until the Mets literally had no other choice that it would happen.
And that’s where we are now. The Mets are under .500 and in third place. Callaway’s job has seemingly become tenuous. Conforto and Brandon Nimmo are on the IL while Jeff McNeil is dealing with an abdominal issue. Justin Wilson is on the IL, and Familia just had another poor performance. Suddenly, the Mets, who knew better than everyone, suddenly don’t anymore.
Now, Smith will get reps in left field, and Davis can start playing out there more. Diaz can pitch more than three outs when the situation merits. Nido will now be deGrom’s personal catcher. Of course, the Mets waited a long time to finally admit they actually don’t know better than everyone. The question now is whether they waited too long.
Fortuantely, the Mets finally listened to everyone. Now, the goal is to finally get through to them that everyone else is indeed smarter than they are and that the Yankees financial model is sustainable. In fact, it could be sustainable for the Mets as well if they were willing to try.
Maybe it is a function of being a 12th round draft pick and coming from a school, Cal State Long Beach, which is not exactly a baseball hotbed. Perhaps, this is the result of being a player who has dealt with his share of injuries. Certainly, 26 year old rookies usually have a little extra to prove. It’s always possible this was instilled in him as a child, and he continues to play the game this way.
No matter what the explanation, Jeff McNeil never takes a play off, and he does all the things he can do to beat you.
At the plate, McNeil makes contact with nearly everything. He doesn’t get fooled making contact on nearly 90 percent of the pitches he swings at, and he has only struck out 10.6 percent of the time, which is the sixth lowest rate in the majors. He has improved his walk rates, and he is hitting the ball harder than he did last year.
In the field, he has not just been versatile, but he’s been good wherever he’s been put. So far this year, he has a positive DRS at second, third, and left field. This is partially due to his having good speed. It’s also the result of his hard work and dedication to getting better.
If you break it down, McNeil has been Ichiro Suzuki like at the plate, and he has been a better version of Ben Zobrist in the field. Given his hard nose mentality, his moving around the field, and his ability, it would not be a stretch to say McNeil is reminiscent of Pete Rose, you know, without the gambling and being a complete jerk.
With McNeil, it’s not just how he comes to beat you at the plate or in the field. He does the little things well too which mostly go under the radar. We saw that last night on Amed Rosario‘s game winning RBI single:
And they say Jeff McNeil isn't known for his defense. pic.twitter.com/ZvOMCSgTqs
— Roger Cormier (@yayroger) May 22, 2019
There’s a couple of things to remember here. First, McNeil didn’t have to move an inch on the play. With their being two outs, and Adeiny Hechavarria being on third base, his lone job was not to do something stupid and make an out. Taking that into account re-watch McNeil on that play.
The entire time he is facing Trea Turner. His eyes are fixed on Turner’s eyes, and he is shifting down the line. At the last moment he slides into Turner’s throwing path. Turner’s throw was a little high, and Rosario, who as David Sadler of MLB.com points out, was running at a speed equivalent to Billy Hamilton or Byron Buxton. Rosario deserves all the credit in the world, and if not for his hustle, there’s zero chance he’s safe.
That said, you can’t help but wonder what impact McNeil had on the play. Rosario beat out that throw by a hair, which means event he slightest hesitation by Turner could have led to his being safe. You could argue McNeil’s dancing around created that split second.
And maybe it didn’t. It doesn’t change the fact McNeil didn’t take that play off. Just like he does at the plate and in the field, he found a way to try to impact the game and give his team the best chance to win. In that moment, we saw just what a special player he is and just how lucky the Mets are to have him.
Last year, Yoenis Cespedes was activated after spending over two months on the Disabled List seemingly for the sole purpose of serving as a DH in a post All-Star Game series against the Yankees. A still clearly hobbled Cespedes came up in the top of the fourth and hit a home run.
In that game and in that moment, the well under .500 Mets had the most juice they had since, well, Cespedes landed on the Disabled List. At that time, the Mets were still over .500 and a viable contender in the division. In his time with the Mets, that is the way it has gone with Cespedes.
We first saw it in 2015. After the Mets acquired him at the trade deadline, Cespedes played the best baseball he ever played in his life. While many pinpoint the Cespedes acquisition as the point in which the Mets become contenders, Cespedes was more than that. Cespedes was the player who made the Mets interesting.
Cespedes hit prolific home runs, and when he hit them, he would occasionally have equally prolific bat flips. On the bases and in the field, when he turned on the jets, there were few quicker than him. When there was a chance to nail a base runner looking to get that extra base, Cespedes would unleash a laser. With the Mets, he was every bit the five tool player teams covet.
But, he was more than that. Cespedes was the player you had to watch. When he was up at the plate, you needed to see what he would. When the ball was hit to him, you needed to see if the base runner dared challenge him. When Cespedes was on the field, he not only made the Mets better, he made them more interesting.
He made them interesting with the antics. He had his car collection. There was his sending out clubhouse attendants to purchase the right waffle irons. He owned a ranch and used his money to purchase animals at state fairs. He loved playing golf and talked about how it helped his baseball swing.
With all due respect to the current Mets players, they don’t rise to the level of Cespedes in terms of attracting attention and intrigue. Jacob deGrom‘s starts came close last year. Noah Syndergaard does try by doing different things like his battles with Mr. Met and actually having ridden a horse next to Cespedes, but it’s just not the same. Pete Alonso does hit the tape measure shots, but he does not have the same flair Cespedes had.
Ultimately, when Cespedes underwent double heel surgery and now broke his ankle the Mets lost something. No, not the ability to sell him as a trade deadline “acquisition.” Rather, they lost just being that much more interesting and entertaining. If he was healthy, they did lose the chance to be better.
It’s a real shame because no matter what you thought of Cespedes, he did make the Mets more fun and interesting. We can only hope his rehabilitation from his surgery and broken ankle allows him to be that player in 2020.
Every so often, you hear a quote in a press conference which causes you to snap to attention so quickly you risk paralysis. You have to go back on multiple occasions just to make sure you heard it correctly because you cannot possibly believe it was said. Yesterday, Brodie Van Wagenen had one of those gems:
Van Wagenen, “I will be the one, along with the rest of the front office team, that will continue to make improvements to this roster as we go forward like we have today with the purchase of Hector Santiago’s contract.”
— Michael Mayer (@mikemayer22) May 20, 2019
On a day where the Mets were starting Wilmer Font, announced Seth Lugo was heading to the IL, and Yoenis Cespedes broke his ankle ending his already tenuous ability to return this season, Brodie Van Wagenen stood up there and said he improved the roster by adding Hector Santiago to the roster.
Hector Santiago.
We shouldn’t be too sure to dismiss this as a mistake. After all, in February, Van Wagenen said, “Hector Santiago is an All-Star at the major-league level.” (Matt Ehalt, Yahoo).
You can spin this however you want. You can say this is part of his sales job as the General Manager. After all, he did say the Mets were the team to beat despite not having a fifth starter or starting center fielder. You could say this was meant to say Santiago is an upgrade over what was already there. However, his comments do jive with what he said during Spring Training.
No matter how you look at it, Van Wagenen is once again over-selling us on a below replacement level player. He is doing it while the Mets are paying Santiago a pro rated $3 million instead of say using that money on Gio Gonzalez as the fifth starter. Of course, the Mets couldn’t do that because they’d have to guarantee him a spot in the rotation over Jason Vargas, and we know he can’t do that to a former client even if it meant improving the club.
In any event, maybe Van Wagenen was right. After all, the Mets are now 1-0 in the Hector Santiago era.