What Needs To Happen For Mets To Grab a Wild Card

After the Mets took two of three against the Reds, their chances of being one of the two Wild Cards has worsened. In fact, according to Fangraphs their chances are 2.0 percent. As Lloyd Christmas would say, “So, you’re saying there’s a chance.” Here’s where the standings are at the moment:

Team Record GB
Nationals 85-69 0.0
Brewers 86-70 0.0
Cubs 82-74 4.0
Mets 81-74 4.5
Diamondbacks 80-76 6.0
Phillies 79-75 6.0

As it stands for the Mets, they are going to need some help. The good news is with the Cubs getting swept in a four game series with the Cardinals and their losing six straight, they are tied in the loss column with the Mets. That means the Mets are really only behind the Wild Card leaders at the moment. This makes this an exercise in how the Mets fare against the top two teams:

Mets Nationals Brewers
7-0 3-5 2-4
6-1 2-6 1-5
5-2 1-7 E
4-3 Eliminated

Basically speaking, as Todd Frazier eluded to on Saturday, the Mets need to run the table. However, that still might not be enough to claim a Wild Card. For the Mets, their playing the Marlins in a four game set is a good start for them. If they sweep like they should, they may have a shot.

The Nationals are about to embark on a five game set against with Philadelphia Phillies. You could imagine Bryce Harper is going to try all he can do to knock his old team out of the postseason. As shown above, it’s not going to be just personal as the Phillies are on the very periphery of this race. Of course, after one loss, the Phillies are out, so it will be interesting to see how the Phillies respond when that loss happens.

After the Phillies, the Nationals finish the season with the Indians, who are in a dog fight with the Rays and Athletics for the two Wild Card spots. What makes those games all the tougher is the Indians may be getting Jose Ramirez back. While you can’t anticipate a Nationals collapse, it is certainly on the table.

What may not be on the table is a Brewers collapse, and yet, there is hope the Christian Yelich-less team may finally stumble. After all, they are no longer playing a Pirates team who is easier than a bye.

The Brewers are one game under on the road, and as we recently saw, the Reds and Rockies haven’t given up on the season. It should also be noted that even with the Reds and Rockies being under .500, both teams are over .500 at home. Moreover, the Brewers and Reds season series is tied with the Brewers losing the last three they played in Cincinnati.

All told, the Nationals and Brewers have a difficult end to the season. The issue for the Mets is whether it is difficult enough for them to make a run against the Marlins and a Braves team which really has nothing to do but get ready to host the Cardinals in the NLDS.

Hopefully, this should be a very interesting final week to the season. If everything breaks right for the Mets, we should hopefully see what we saw 20 years ago with Melvin Mora scoring followed by Al Leiter pitching a one hitter. You never know.