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Mets Biggest Mistake Is Trading Justin Dunn

Any day now, the Seattle Mariners and New York Mets are about to complete a blockbuster deal which will alter the next five to ten years for both franchises.

For the Mets, adding Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz is about winning now, and judging from this trade, they better win now.

First and foremost, they will no longer have Jarred Kelenic, who is arguably their best prospect. More than than, Cano’s deal is a complete albatross.

While some are saying the Mets are getting plenty of relief on Cano, it’s not exactly true. Remember, Jay Bruce is only under contract for two more years. Anthony Swarzak‘s deal expires after 2019. After that, there’s no more “offsets.”

Therefore, for the final three years of Cano’s deal, he will be making $20 million per season. Also, we should not forget, even with the Mets trading Bruce and Swarzak, they still owe Cano $100 million over five years. Of course, that assumes the Mariners are providing the $20 million.

With that $20 million figure once being $60 million, we should not be too sure that number won’t change.

An important consideration to this deal is when the Mets are going to deal with Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and Michael Conforto hitting free agency, the team will be paying Cano $20 million per season. That puts a tremendous strain on the ability to keep those players.

Perhaps that is why Syndergaard is being shopped now.

If we operate under the assumption the Mets are building their team to win-now, which should be painfully obvious by this trade, you really have to question the wisdom of including Justin Dunn in this trade.

No starting pitching staff is immune to injuries, and since 2015, that has gone double for the Mets. With that being the case, the Mets will really need Triple-A depth to pick up the slack. Here are the career MLB numbers for their current projected Triple-A starters:

This is a group who makes Rafael Montero‘s 5.38 ERA not look so bad. For his part, Montero is not an option as he was released.

The numbers from the aforementioned pitchers are from small sample sizes, but you’d be hard-pressed to argue they would be much better than this next year. You’d be harder pressed to believe they would be able to do much better than this over 10, 15, or even 20 plus starts.

With that being the case, the Mets needed Dunn. He was the one pitcher in their system who was close to MLB ready who you could realistically rely upon for a number of starts. With him gone, the Mets really have zero depth.

With that being the case, you really have to question why a Mets team trying to win-now would completely overlook this. That is more problematic when you consider the Mets have been done in more by lack of depth than any other factor.

In the end, the Mets are going all-in now, and they’re doing it with a need to address the bullpen, catching position, center field, and their bench depth. Now, they are also going to have to add 1-2 quality pitchers who are alright spending extended time in the minors waiting for someone to get hurt.

The pitchers who are willing to do that are rarely good, and ultimately, this is why trading Dunn was a giant mistake.

25 thoughts on “Mets Biggest Mistake Is Trading Justin Dunn”

  1. Luis says:

    “…why a Mets team trying to win-now would completely overlook this.” Because the Wilpons are idiots?

    1. metsdaddy says:

      That’s on BVW who made the deal

  2. newyorkmehts says:

    Just need one healthy productive year from Cano and then can flip him to an AL team.

    1. metsdaddy says:

      Why would an AL team take on a four year $80 million deal for a 37 year old 2B?

  3. Dennis Mega says:

    Unless Cano is not healthy then this deal could solidify the infield by moving McNeill to 3rd and adding Alonso at 1st.
    Diaz should take over closer role helping free up Gsellman and Lugo for other roles. Still need at least one more good reliever.
    Money is not fans’ concern. Offense needs bopper since Cespedes will never return now that he has big $. Catcher is huge problem with 2 losers Pawlecki and d’arnaud not the answer. BVW is in the hot seat with cheap, incompetent ownership. Good luck!

    1. metsdaddy says:

      It’s easy to say money isn’t the fans concern, but unless you’re a Yankee, Red Sox, or Dodger fan, it is.

      You know $100 million to Cano severely limits what you can do in the future. In fact, it hinders what you can do now because you’ve already posted huge numbers on future budgets.

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