The 2017 Leadoff Hitter Is Not A Clear-Cut Choice

In 2015, despite Terry Collins experimenting all spring long with Juan Lagares in the lead-off spot, come Opening Day, the Mets had installed Curtis Granderson in the lead-off spot. The move proved to be a stroke of genius as Granderson had his best season in four seasons hitting .259/.364/.457 with 26 homers and 70 RBI. For many points of that season, he was seemingly the only professional hitter barely keeping the offense afloat. When the reinforcements came, the Mets took over the division and went all the way to the World Series.

Unfortunately, Granderson did not have the same success in 2016. Despite hitting an impressive 30 homers, he only hit .237/.335/.464. He struggled most of the year, and by August, Collins removed him from the lead-off spot. The move was due to a number of different issues facing the Mets. First and foremost, Granderson was struggling in the role. Second, with the injuries and poor performances, the Mets needed Granderson’s power in the middle of the lineup. Third, and perhaps the biggest reason of all, Jose Reyes had rejoined the team, and Collins made the decision to put the best lead-off hitter in Mets history at the top of the lineup.

With Spring Training about a month away, and the Mets everyday and primary backups set in stone, the question is who bats lead-off in 2017? With the Mets not having a clear-cut option, the Mets may have to either recycle options, or they will have to think outside-the-box:

Curtis Granderson

On a positive note, Granderson has been a successful lead-off hitter in his career, and his presence at the top of the order in 2015 was one of the factors why the Mets were able to not only win the division, but also go the World Series. Looking deeper into his 2016 numbers, there are some promising signs he could handle the lead-off spot.

As the first batter of the game, Granderson hit .319/.395/.667 with seven homers. When he lead-off an inning, he hit .270/.355/.582 with 16 homers. Now, this is not the Granderson we remember from the 2016 season because he did not fare well in his subsequent at-bats. In fact, Granderson hit .218/.317/.433 as the team’s lead-off hitter. Another factor was he thrived hitting behind Yoenis Cespedes. When hitting cleanup, Granderson hit .321/.440/.605 with six homers and 18 RBI in the limited sample size of 23 games.

Jose Reyes

At one point in his career, Reyes was the prototypical lead-off hitter. He could get on base, steal bases, take the extra base, and he could hit for some power. He was a bundle of energy that seemed to get both the fans and his team going. He was a threat from the moment he stepped in the batter’s box until the moment he walked back to the dugout. While Reyes shows some glimpses, he is no longer that player.

After his first season playing on the punishing Rogers Centre turf, Reyes just hasn’t been the same player. Over the past three seasons, including his stint with the Mets last year, Reyes is a .279/.321/.400 hitter. In some respects, Reyes is a much smarter base stealer, much like Rickey Henderson at the end of his career, as he gets caught less frequently, he also has fewer attempts. It seems that the things he was elite at are now things he is now just good at doing. This all works against Reyes being an effective lead-off hitter, and that is before we account for his recent pronounced splits against right-handed and left-handed pitching. At this point in his career, Reyes mauls left-handed pitching, but he is really no better against right-handed pitching than Wilmer Flores.

Despite the aforementioned issues, the biggest hurdle in Reyes’ way from becoming the Mets lead-off hitter is Reyes is not an everyday player. Reyes is here mostly to serve as a back-up to David Wright due to his spinal stenosis issues. Reyes will also serve as a back-up middle infielder and possibly as a back-up outfielder. While you can make the argument, he should lead-off in games he plays, he is not going to play everyday meaning the Mets need an everyday option.

David Wright

This is where we start going outside the box as Wright has never hit lead-off in his career. However, looking at the numbers and seeing the type of player Wright has seemingly become, his hitting lead-off actually makes sense.

Even with all the issues Wright faced in 2016, the one thing he showed he was still capable of doing was getting on base. In the limited sample size that was his 37 games last year, Wright had a .350 OBP. If he was to have played the full season, his .350 OBP would have been second best on the team to Cespedes. Over the past two injury plagued seasons, Wright has played 75 games, and he has had a .365 OBP over that stretch. Again with the caveat that Wright only played in very few games over that stretch, his .365 OBP is a team best.

Another factor in his favor for him leading off is his taking a lot of pitches in his at-bats. Again, this comes with the caveat that he only played in 37 games, but Wright saw the most pitches per plate appearance than any other Met. It should be noted, Granderson was second on the team. With Wright going deep into the count, he is not only making a pitcher throw more pitches, he is also allowing his team to see what the pitcher has on that particular day.

While in many respects, Wright is what you want in a lead-off hitter, it needs to be noted time and again with him that you cannot depend on him. No one knows how many games he can play. However, this can be an argument to hit him lead-off. Presumably, on the days he cannot play, or if he was to miss a number of games due to injury, Reyes is likely to take his spot at third base. Given Collins’ propensity to hit Reyes lead-off, Reyes could move into Wright’s spot in the lineup and not disturb the rest of the team.

Michael Conforto

Again, this is well outside the box, but unlike Wright the decision to move him to the lead-off spot has nothing to do with his skill set. Rather, the concept behind hitting Conforto lead-off is to give him a spot in the order where he is going to see some quality pitches.

Whether it was pitcher’s adapting to him, his wrist injury, or Collin’s icing him on the bench, Conforto did not have a good 2016 season by any measure. In 109 games, he hit .220/.310/.414 while striking out in 25.5% of his plate appearances. If you take out his terrific April, the numbers look even worse. Over the course of 88 games (58 starts), Conforto hit .174/.267/.330 with only eight homers and 24 RBI.

And yet, we know how good he can be. In his rookie season, a year removed from college and having never played a game in AAA, he hit .270/.335/.506 with nine homers and 26 RBI in 56 games. In April of last year, he hit .365/.442/.676 with four homers and 18 RBI. When he was demoted to AAA the second time, he hit .493/.541/.821 with six homers and 13 RBI. Long story short, this kid knows how to hit. The Mets just need to find a good place for him in the lineup to help further his development.

Presumably, his presence at the top of the lineup with a professional hitter like Asdrubal Cabrera hitting behind him would allow Conforto to see better pitches at the plate. Theoretically, this could allow him to wait for his pitch and drive it somewhere. Another factor to consider is Conforto has some speed on the bases. While he is not going to steal 30 bases for you, he does have the ability to go from first to third or score from second.

Ultimately, one of the most important things the Mets have to do this season is to further the development of Conforto. His hitting lead-off may further that.

Asdrubal Cabrera

Cabrera is yet another unconventional choice. However, Cabrera has already shown the Mets he is a professional hitter that can be slotted any place in the lineup. No matter where Cabrera hits in the lineup, he has shown the ability to give the Mets a good at-bat.

With Cabrera, there are as many positives as there are red flags in making him the lead-off hitter. For his career, he has a .329 OBP. While he did better that with a .336 OBP last season, you would prefer a higher OBP from the lead-off spot. With his knee injury last season, there is a real question over how much speed he still has on the basepaths. In the limited time he has been a lead-off hitter in his career, he has only posted a 95 OPS+.

And yet, despite these and other concerns you may have about Cabrera in the lead-off spot, the fact remains that Cabrera is a solid hitter. In fact, he could be the Mets player outside of Cespedes that you have the most confidence in heading into the 2017 season. With that in mind, wouldn’t he be the guy you want to give the most number of at-bats to during the 2017 season? Arguably, the answer to that question is yes.

Overall, there is a real debate to be had as to who should hit lead-off for the Mets in 2017. Based upon what we saw in 2016, it is possible the player who was the Opening Day lead-off hitter will not last the full season in that spot in the order. With that in mind, the Mets should not be afraid to give any other of their players a chance to hit lead-off.