No one anywhere will suggest that a team’s Spring Training record is indicative of anything. In fact, statistics and results shouldn’t be over analyzed. With that said, there are some results from Spring Training that can reasonably be cause for alarm. 

deGrom’s Velocity

Last year, Jacob deGrom‘s fastball averaged 95.81 MPH. This Spring, deGrom’s fastball has generally been between 91 – 93 MPH. 

There are reasons for this. He took additional time off in the offseason with last year’s increased workload. He dealt with a minor leg injury. He had to get a new mattress because the old one gave him a stiff back. His wife is expecting and may deliver any day now. Overall, there have been a series a distractions and very minor injuries. Through it all, he hasn’t found his fastball. 

Now, deGrom can probably still get people out with less stuff, but it’s not ideal. With a slower fastball, he can still be good, but he won’t be dominant. He may find his fastball in real games whether it is due to velocity or him holding something back in Spring Training. However, as of today, he is throwing 91-93 MPH, and Spring Training is effectively over. It’s fair to be concerned about deGrom’s velocity. 

Cespedes’ Power

When Yoenis Cespedes came to the Mets, he put on a display. Up until 2015, he averaged 24 homers a year. In two months with the Mets, he hit 17 home runs.

This Spring he has hit one homerun. He has been working with Kevin Long to change his approach at the plate. He’s had stiffness in his hip. In the NLCS, he had to pull himself from a game with an aggravated AC joint in his right shoulder. That same right shoulder has been bothering him this Spring. 

Now, Cespedes is a streaky hitter who can start hitting home runs all over the place once the season begins. His one homerun came in the last Spring Training game, which is hopefully a sign of good things to come. However, at this point, we cannot dismiss the possibility that the decreased power is from this new approach, or his wonky right shoulder, or both. 

Bastardo’s Control

With Antonio Bastardo, there are two issues you have with him: (1) he pitches well every other year; and (2) walks. 

For starters, based upon the pattern of Bastardo’s career, he will have a rough 2016. In even numbered years, his ERA+ has been under 100 and his ERA has been 3.94 and above. In odd numbered years (where he played a full season) his ERA+ is 129 and above, and his ERA has been 2.98 and below. As we know, this is an even numbered year, and his Spring hasn’t instilled any confidence that the pattern will change. 

One big reason why is Bastardo has walked 5 guys in 10.1 innings this Spring. Both Terry Collins and Dan Warthen are worried about his command. Warthen has been working with Bastardo on his mechanics to no avail. It’s a problem that needs to be fixed because Bastardo has walk issues. In his career, he averages 4.1 BB/9 (not good) in odd numbered years. In the dreaded even years, he averages 4.7 BB/9 (worse). Right now, Bastardo has given no indication this odd year – even year pattern won’t continue. 

Conforto Hasn’t Played RF

Right now, the Mets have five outfielders capable of playing everyday. Of those five, Curtis Granderson, Alejandro De Aza, and Juan Lagares have platoon splits. Last year, Michael Conforto was only allowed to face righties the vast majority of the time. 

The plan for Conforto this year was to let him play everyday. Having Conforto play everyday and not play in RF is going to be difficult. When the Mets face a lefty, especially a tough lefty, it’s likely Collins will want Lagares in CF and Cespedes in RF. That means the left-handed batter will have to play RF. In that circumstance, Collins will be more likely to play Granderson or De Aza as both have experience in right field. 

For his part, Conforto hasn’t played right field in his very limited time as a professional. He’s worked there during practices in Spring Training, but he has not played right field in a game. There is simply no substitute for in-game experience. It’s likely the lack of game experience may hold him back. It’s likely Collins will not play Conforto in right. 

By not playing Conforto against lefties, they may be hampering his development. Furthermore, the Mets may not be putting their best lineup out there against lefties. 

David Wright’s Back

To be fair, when David Wright returned from the DL last year, he hit .277/.381/.437 in 30 games. If Wright can keep that up – he’s a career .298/.377/.492 hitter – there’s no reason to be concerned about him. Even better, he had a full offseason to adequately prepare for 2016. 

However, Wright had trouble playing three games in a row after his return from spinal stenosis. It wasn’t until this week that Wright dared to play four games in a row in Spring Training. At the end of the day, no one knows how many games Wright can play in 2016. Everything is in estimate or a guess whether it be 130, 100, 81, 10, etc. That’s a problem. 

Wright is the Mets’ captain. He’s the best option at third base. He’s still a good hitter who gets on base more than anyone else in the lineup. Whether the Mets or anyone else will acknowledge it, the team needs him. Unfortunately, no one knows how much Wright can give them. 

Overall, there are things about this Spring that should give Mets fans cause for concern. The record isn’t one of them. It’s not the production. It’s the team’s general health and preparedness for the 2016 season. 

Despite these issues, the Mets still look to be a great team that can not only compete for a playoff berth, but also win the World Series.