Musings
Mets closer Edwin Diaz looked more like the closer the Mets believed they were getting when Brodie Van Wagenen made that stupid trade. With that, faith in Diaz has been temporarily restored.
And yet, we see a pattern emerge with Diaz. He’s become an every other year player. Just look at his career FIP:
- 2016 – 2.04
- 2017 – 4.02
- 2018 – 1.61
- 2019 – 4.51
- 2020 – 2.18
If his pattern continues, we can expect another FIP over 4.00, or put another way, we could see a repeat of his disappointing 2019 season.
On that note, Diaz is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to make upwards of $6.5 million in arbitration. For his top form, that’s a significant discount. When he has his off year, not so much.
Looking forward, from the Mets perspective, this is arguably the highest his trade value will ever be. He’s coming off a great year, still has two years of control remaining, and will be making reasonable money.
Further highlighting his value is how teams are claiming they’re cash strapped. This has led to a number of straight out poor decisions like the Cleveland Indians declining Brad Hand‘s option, and the St. Louis Cardinals declining Kolten Wong‘s option.
Teams who need a closer may be enticed to part with assets to acquire a Diaz over signing a reliever. On that front, the Mets have a lot of needs. Those needs include third, center, and pitching depth.
The Mets could look to fill one of those slots with Diaz as a big chip. The Mets could then look to a suppressed free agent market to replace Diaz. For instance, the Mets could sign Hand and/or Liam Hendriks.
In fact, the ability to sign Hand and Hendriks gives the Mets the latitude here to shop Diaz. The key word here is shop. By no means are the Mets obligated to move him, nor should they give him away. On that note, the Mets could still sign those two and make about as dominant a bullpen as you’ll ever see.
The overriding point is with the talent available on the free agent market, and the teams not spending, this would be the time to see what the Mets could get for Diaz. Ultimately, it’s the prudent thing to do with Diaz at his peak value, and it may be the best route to building the best possible roster.
When it comes time for Michael Conforto to make the decision about whether or not he wants to sign a contract extension, there is one interesting consideration for him – his legacy.
Right now, Conforto has his name scattered across the Mets record books, but at the moment he’s not in a position to overtake the lead in any major statistical category. Part of the reason is he only has one year remaining on his contract.
However, if he were to sign an extension, he’d have a real chance to own the Mets record books.
On that note, here is where he currently stands.
- HR Darryl Strawberry 252
- R David Wright 949
- H Wright 1,777
- RBI Wright 970
- 2B Wright 390
Here is where Conforto is and how far behind the leaders he is:
- HR 118 (134 behind)
- R 348 (601)
- H 556 (1,221)
- RBI 341 (629)
- 2B 121 (269)
Now, when you look at some of those totals, he is really far behind Wright and Strawberry. However, Conforto is in the early part of his prime. That puts him in an excellent spot to make his climb.
Over the past three seasons, Conforto has 162 game averages of 154 hits, 95 runs, 30 doubles, 32 homers, and 93 RBI.Assuming he keeps that pace, here’s how many seasons he’d need to play to become the all-time leader in each category:
- HR – 5
- R – 7
- H – 8
- RBI – 7
- 2B – 9
One thing of note is that three year period includes time from when he was coming back from a devastating shoulder injury. With his clearly rushed back, he struggled until late in the 2017 season.
If we look just at the 162 game averages of the past two seasons, we see Conforto has averaged 163 hits, 105 runs, 33 doubles, 34 homers, and 98 RBI. With that pace, he would not need as much time to grab the lead:
- HR – 4
- R – 6
- H – 8
- RBI – 7
- 2B – 8
Looking at this, if he were to receive a five year extension, he will likely be the Mets all-time home run leader, and he’ll be knocking on the door for the runs lead.
He’d still need a few seasons hitting at a high level to catch Wright in hits, doubles, and RBI. While difficult, it could be done. What matters there is Conforto’s ability to play at a high level for a sustained time period, and just as important, how long his extension (if any) would be.
If Conforto’s extension is indeed long enough, and he is blessed with good health, he’s going to make a serious dent in the record books assuming he isn’t atop all of them. If he can get a World Series ring and close that 34.6 WAR gap between him and Wright, we may very well one day talk about how Conforto is the best position player in Mets history.
The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers have an interesting history. For fans of the original Mets team, many of them were originally Dodgers fans.
That includes Fred Wilpon, who built a ballpark in testament to those Dodger teams. Of course, that was resented by younger more modern Mets fans who have zero recollection of those Brooklyn teams.
For Gen X fans and younger, the history of the Mets and Dodgers is quite different.
There was the Dodgers upsetting the 1988 Mets. That was a painful series highlighted by David Cone perhaps riling up the Dodgers, Davey Johnson leaving in Dwight Gooden too long with the ensuing Mike Scioscia homer, and Orel Hershiser‘s virtuoso performance.
The 2006 Mets got some measure of a payback in the NLDS sweep. That was a total beatdown with former Dodgers Shawn Green and Jose Valentin relaying to former Dodger Paul Lo Duca who tagged out Jeff Kent and J.D. Drew at home plate.
Things between these two teams really ratcheted up in the 2015 NLDS. That all began with Chase Utley living up to his reputation as one of the dirtiest players ever with his tackling Ruben Tejada at second thereby breaking Tejada’s leg.
Utley would go on to cowardly duck the Mets in New York. Ultimately, the Mets won that series behind the brilliance of Jacob deGrom and the postseason heroics of Daniel Murphy.
The bad feelings of that series carried forward into the next season when Noah Syndergaard was ejected during a nationally televised game after throwing a pitch behind Utley. Utley would get the last laugh with Terry Collins being revered years later when the ejection video was released.
After that, things calmed down. That was due in large part to the Wilpons ineptitude taking the Mets out of contention. During that time, the Dodgers became the model franchise finally breaking through and winning the 2020 World Series.
Now, with Steve Cohen at the helm, things promise to be different.
With Cohen comes real financial heft which arguably surpasses what the Dodgers have. We’ve seen early on what that means with the Mets already signing Trevor May and James McCann as well as being in the market for George Springer and Tomoyuki Sugano.
But, it’s not just the financial strength. It’s also the scouting and analytics. The Dodgers have used that to identify players like Max Muncy and Justin Turner who have become relative stars. They’ve also developed an enviable pipeline of talent with young players like Gavin Lux and Will Smith.
The Mets have started heading in that direction by bringing back Sandy Alderson. They’ve also hired Jared Porter as GM and Zack Scott as Assistant GM.
Of course, the Mets have retained perhaps the best draft scouting with Mark Tramuta, Tommy Tanous, Drew Toussaint, et al. That group is responsible for great talent like Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Seth Lugo, Brandon Nimmo, and Dominic Smith. That’s nothing to say of the talent still left in the system and traded away.
The Mets have the core, financial resources, burgeoning front office, and now the right ownership for the Mets to become a juggernaut like we haven’t seen from this franchise since the 1980s. They will very soon rival the Dodgers on and off the field.
That is going to lead to some more postseason run-ins. With that will be the heightening if tensions between these franchises which have already had their moments.
If the Mets make the right moves, we’ll see an epic postseason clash between these teams come October not just this year but in each of the ensuing seasons. The seeds are already there, and so, with more epic postseason series, we’ll see the makings of a bitter Mets/Dodgers rivalry.
The year 2020 was hard on us all, but there were some truly outstanding and unexpected uplifting moments scattered throughout the year. In no particular order here were some of the best moments for the New York Mets in 2020:
1. Steve Cohen purchases the Mets ending the Wilpons reign.
2. Dominic Smith finds his voice and that next level in his game.
3. Michael Conforto emerged as a real leader and showed he’s the star we all hoped he’d be.
4. While not winning the Cy Young, Jacob deGrom continued to prove he’s the best pitcher in the game.
5. Yoenis Cespedes gave us one last thrill with an Opening Day game winning homer.
6. Edwin Diaz returned to his dominant form.
7. Amed Rosario hit a walk-off homer at Yankee Stadium to beat the New York Yankees.
8. David Peterson and Andres Gimenez made the jump from Double-A and had strong rookie seasons.
9. Mets were once again allowed to wear the first responders caps.
10. Sandy Alderson returned restoring credibility to the franchise and was given the opportunity to win a World Series with the Mets.
11. Marcus Stroman accepted the qualifying offer to return to the Mets.
12. Players like Trevor May and James McCann were excited about the new era in Queens and wanted to be a part of it.
13. Pete Alonso proved his rookie year was no fluke putting himself on what would’ve been a 42 home run pace.
14. Although in a circuitous route, Luis Rojas got the manager job he earned and did enough to earn at least a second season at the helm.
15. Luis Guillorme was great with the glove and better than we ever anticipated he’d be at the plate.
16. Brandon Nimmo proved his neck problems were no more while remaining an on-base machine.
17. Rick Porcello got to live out his dream by pitching for the same Mets team he loved as a kid.
18. The 1986 Mets were dubbed the best team ever.
19. Alonso honored the greatest Met ever by hitting a walk-off homer the first game the Mets played after Tom Seaver passed.
20. It was only 60 games and the Mets finished in last place, but we got to see Mets baseball. For at least those 3+ hours a day, we felt normal.
If you’re reading this now, chances are you went through a lot this year. The good news is you’re reading this meaning you’ve survived the year and can have hope for a better 2021.
God willing, that 2021 will be our best year ever, and we will see a Mets World Series title.
One of the best parts of the 2020 season was watching Luis Guillorme and Andres Gimenez perform pure magic in the middle infield. It rivaled Edgardo Alfonzo and Rey Ordóñez, and at times, you could imagine it being better.
Luis Guillorme and Andrés Giménez are making it look it easy out here. pic.twitter.com/NFRyvPzin6
— SNY (@SNYtv) August 12, 2020
Rick Porcello gets a BIG double play to end the 4th ? pic.twitter.com/Yie43Yclep
— SNY (@SNYtv) August 12, 2020
Luis Guillorme can pitch and make great plays in the field. Versatility >>> pic.twitter.com/uzEQkSyYb2
— SNY (@SNYtv) August 11, 2020
If you value up the middle defense and believe it’s a key to winning, there is arguably none better than the tandem of Guillorme and Gimenez. In 2021, Gimenez seems to be a lock at short, but we don’t ever hear Guillorme’s name for consideration of the starting second base job.
In just 102.0 innings at second last year, he had a 1 OAA and a 12.5 UZR/150. In his Major League career, he’s played 176.0 innings accumulating a 2 DRS and a 2 OAA.
While this is a small sample size, Guillorme was always known for elite defense. It’s one of the reasons the Mets once protected him from the Rule 5 Draft and have kept him as a utility player.
We’ve seen through Mets and baseball history glove first players like Guillorme can play everyday and be a tremendous asset. The classic example in Mets history is Ordóñez and Juan Lagares in 2013 and 2014.
When it comes to Guillorme, he’s a more promising hitter than those two elite defenders. We saw a classic example of that when he posted a 144 wRC+ with a career best 14.7% walk rate.
Of course, his .463 BABIP is unsustainable. Still, behind that were some sustainable things like the improved walk rate. Other important factors are his opposite field approach and improved line drive rate.
Guillorme knows what he is as a hitter, and he’s maximizing his skill set. Where he winds up as a hitter is a good guess, but you can probably safely assume he’ll hit enough to justify his Gold Glove caliber defense at second.
Now, if Jeff McNeil can handle third, Guillorme needs to be strongly considered at second. In terms of the current roster, Guillorme at second and McNeil at third is probably their best roster.
Of course, free agency and trades can change that. However, up until there’s a clear obvious upgrade available, and those options may not be readily attainable for the Mets, Guillorme needs to finally get the chance at a starting position.
With Ha-Seong Kim signing with the San Diego Padres, the New York Mets ability to obtain a third baseman grew exponentially more difficult. That’s not to say there aren’t options.
Nolan Arenado and Kris Bryant remain on the trade bloc. Of course, pulling the trigger on a deal for either player is extraordinarily difficult due to the damage Brodie Van Wagenen inflicted on the Mets farm system.
Looking at the remaining free agent third base market, Justin Turner is the only everyday third baseman available. There are many obstacles with him including his age and desire to stay with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
This leaves the Mets going all-in on the aforementioned trade options or getting creative.
The creative options involve the Mets addressing second base. That could be signing DJ LeMahieu, or better yet, Kolten Wong. Luis Guillorme could be given the starting second base job he’s more than earned, or the team could go with Andres Gimenez there with Amed Rosario back at short.
These and other options are on the table so long as the Mets believe they can entrust the third base job to Jeff McNeil.
Now, last year, the Mets gave up on McNeil at third rather quickly. There were many reasons why including J.D. Davis‘ ineptitude in left. Of course, Davis was equally inept at third (again) causing this issue.
The other reason why the Mets moved McNeil from third was McNeil struggled there. In 75.0 innings, he had a -2 OAA and a 0 DRS. Part of the issue was he struggled with his throws.
This should give everyone pause, but it should be remembered 75.0 innings is the epitome of a small sample size. Another issue is the bizarre nature of the 2020 season. Taking all that into account, we shouldn’t overreact to McNeil’s third base defense.
Entering last season, McNeil had a career 3 OAA and 5 DRS at third. Of note, that was still a small sample size with his having played 173.1 innings over the span of two years.
However, while he’s doesn’t have extensive third base experience in the majors, he played over a thousand innings at third in the minors. This leaves the impression the Mets believe he can handle the position.
Well, maybe. In Sandy Alderson’s first Mets stint, he was reluctant to call-up McNeil saying he wasn’t a third baseman. When Robinson Cano was suspended, Alderson said third was “up in the air.” All told, in typical Alderson fashion, we’re still not quite sure what he thinks.
Whatever the case, McNeil is easily the best in-house option. As the options for third dry up and look all the more unattainable, he increasingly becomes the only option there leaving the Mets to replace Cano at second with someone else.
At least with second, there are plenty of very good options remaining. Unfortunately, McNeil is probably not one of those options as the Mets could very well need him at third.
When it comes to players from other leagues, you can never be too sure how well their skills and stats translate. That is partially the result of MLB being that much better than the other leagues.
Even no doubt candidates like Hideki Matsui put up lesser numbers in MLB. That said, Matsui was a very good player who was a two time All-Star and World Series MVP.
However, that’s Japan. The KBO doesn’t have as many success stories partially because they haven’t sent over as many players. That said, you can see some examples where KBO players played well after coming overseas.
Jung-Ho Kang had a 126 OPS+ in his first two seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates before his legal troubles. Eric Thames went to the KBO to resurrect his career, and it worked. In his first three seasons back in the majors, he had a 118 OPS+.
Looking at these and all foreign players, there is one guiding principle. If you’re a talented player, you will succeed in the majors. That brings us to Ha-Seong Kim.
Kim has been great in his seven seasons hitting .294/.373/.493. Using ZiPs, Dan Symborski of Fangraphs projects Kim to hit .274/.373/.477 with 23 homers and 82 RBI. In terms of advanced stats, Kim protects to have a 117 OPS+ and 3.8 fWAR.
Now, this is where Kim’s position would matter a great deal. At shortstop, he’d be a potential top five hitter in the league. At third, he’s just middle of the pack to possibly lower.
Lost in that are two things. First and foremost, it’s a projection. Second and perhaps more importantly, Kim will be 26 next year meaning he’s about to enter his prime and potentially put up bigger numbers.
Another important consideration is the bat is just part of the equation. His defense is a factor as well.
Kim won back-to-back Gold Gloves at shortstop. He didn’t repeat in 2020, but part of the reason why was his team signed Addison Russell. With Russell at short, Kim moved to third where he played well.
Looking at the complete picture. Kim looks like he’ll be an above-average hitter, and at third, he could be an above-average defender. All-in-all, that makes a good baseball player who could help the Mets significantly.
Keep in mind, J.D. Davis has twice proven he can’t play the position, and there are significant question marks about Jeff McNeil‘s ability to handle the position on a daily basis. Luis Guillorme and Amed Rosario are other options, but their bats may not play well there.
Looking at free agency, Justin Turner is the best MLB option. The problem there is he’s 36 and not guaranteed to want to move back east. On the trade market, there’s Nolan Arenado and Kris Bryant, but they’ll be difficult to obtain with the way Brodie Van Wagenen needlessly ravaged the farm system.
That brings us back to Kim. Arguably, there’s no free agent with his upside or ability to help the Mets branch out to another market. He could fit very well into the lineup and make the Mets significantly improved defensively. While he may not be a sure get to see his skills translate well, we’ve seen other KBO players successfully make the jump, and we see Kim is immensely talented.
All told, you can see why the Mets are interested. Hopefully, they can get a deal done and lock down third base for the next 5-10 years.
When new Mets catcher James McCann signed, it was Michael Conforto who reached out to him to welcome him to the team.
When manager Luis Rojas was asked to name team leaders, Conforto was the first name he mentioned saying Conforto “stands out.”
When Dominic Smith grappled with decisions like kneeling or even playing this summer, Conforto told him he wish he knew Smith was going to kneel so he could be by him. He was then right by Smith’s side when he spoke out about racial injustice.
When it became clear Jake Marisnick and J.D. Davis were not only part of the Houston Astros sign stealing controversy, but also cheated against pitchers on this Mets team, Conforto said three important things: (1) Astros crossed the line; (2) it was going to be addressed; and (3) there was not going to be any animosity.
He was a young player taught how to play and how to be a leader by people like David Wright, Curtis Granderson, and Jay Bruce. He’s been a leader in the clubhouse, and he’s stood by his teammates.
In the history of the Mets, there has been no more obvious choice for Captain since Keith Hernandez and Gary Carter. This is a homegrown Met who is perfect to lead this team as they embark on a new era.
He’s also still a very good player who has had great moments. After he moved past his shoulder injury, he’s had a 135 OPS+. We know he’s capable of more too.
He’s an All-Star caliber player who can hit anywhere in the lineup, and he’s been a good defender. He’s also a team player willing to move to any position to help the team.
Conforto is the Captain in every possible way. Once the Mets give him the contract extension he’s earned, it’s time to formally announce him as the fifth Captain in team history.
Last year, the New York Mets shocked everyone with a surprise Christmas gift. While we awaited coal, we instead found Dellin Betances under our Christmas tree.
This year, Christmas came early. It came when Steve Cohen bought the Mets. It has been a relative 12 Days of Christmas since with Sandy Alderson, Marcus Stroman, Trevor May, Jared Porter, James McCann, and Zack Scott.
While we hope to wake up Christmas morning with Stevie Claus having left a George Springer under the tree, we already have something better. Mets fans have legitimate hope for the future.
We only have hope for Springer because of the current ownership and front office. Players want to be Mets, and we couldn’t be happier. We’ve long awaited this day, and it has been better than we could’ve imagined. And, it’s going to get better than that.
So, as you put your head down on your pillow as visions of Home Run Apples dance in your head, just know you’re going to wake up to a much better Mets organization you’ve seen in over a decade. That’s present enough.
Merry Christmas and Let’s Go Mets!
Every fan in Citi liked the Mets a lot…
But the Wilpons,who grew up Dodgers fans, Did NOT!
The Wilpons hated Mets fans! The whole baseball season!
Now, please don’t ask why. No one quite knows the reason.
It could be Jeff’s head wasn’t screwed on just right. It could be, perhaps, their finances were too tight.
But I think that the most likely reason of all,
May have been their plan for winning was for a market too small.
Whatever their reason, their heart or their wallet,
They stood there on Christmas Eve, hating the fans,
Staring down from their owner’s box with a sour, Wilpon frown,
At the fans hope for a World Series crown
….the Wilpons came up with an idea to steal their hearts, and takes all the pennants and fame from the park the Mets houses
…It was quarter past dawn… All the fans, still a-bed,
All the fans, still a-snooze when they planned their sked,
Packed it up with their pennants! The equipment! The fame!
The bags! And the baseballs! The helmets! No shame!
Four hundred feet up! Up the side of the apple,
They rode with their load to the tiptop to liquidate it!
“Pooh-pooh to the fans!” they were miserly humming.
“They’re finding out now that no World Series is coming!”
“They’re just waking up! We know just what they’ll do!”
“Their mouths will hang open a minute or two, Then the fans down in Citi will all cry Boo Hoo!”
“That’s a noise,” grinned the Wilpons, “That we simply MUST hear!”
So they paused. And the Wilpons put their hands to their ears.
And he did hear a sound rising over the show. It started in low. Then it started to grow.
But the sound wasn’t mad! Why, this sound sounded quite glad!
It couldn’t be so! But it WAS a standing ovation quite loud! VERY!
They stared down at Citi! The Wilpons popped their eyes!
Then they shook! What they saw was a shocking surprise!
Every fan down in Citi, the tall and the small, Was cheering! Without any pennants at all!
They HADN’T stopped the fans from coming! THEY CAME!
Somehow or other, they came just the same!
And the Wilpons, with their wallets empty as we all did know,
Stood puzzling and puzzling: “Where do we go?”
“Cohen made an offer! It came to save a bottom line that sags!”
“It came to buy love, free agents and pennant flags!”
And they puzzled for months, till their ability to keep control was no more.
Then the Wilpons thought of something they hadn’t before!” Maybe fans,” they thought, “don’t belong trampled on the floor,”
“Maybe fans…perhaps…deserve a little bit more!”
And what happened then? Well…in Citi they say, That the Mets small finances grew three sizes that day!
And the minute their wallets didn’t feel quite so tight, they whizzed with through free agency causing much fright,
And the team brought back the fun! And become favorites in the East!
And Cohen, HE HIMSELF! Steve Cohen got rid of the Wilpons who fans like the least!
(Adapted from Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch Who Stole Christmas).