Musings
The New York Mets got their star in Francisco Lindor. The question now is how to best build the rest of the roster to help the Mets win the division.
There are still some areas which need to be addressed with third base being one of the bigger issues. While J.D. Davis is the incumbent, the Mets do not appear eager to put him there and rightfully so due to Davis’ career -19 DRS and -6 OAA make him completely unplayable there.
Looking forward, one thing Mets GM Jared Porter spoke about addressing run prevention. Another way to phrase that is putting an improved defensive team on the field.
One of the best ways to build the best defensive team would be for the Mets to sign reigning Gold Glover Kolten Wong to play second base. Simply put, Wong is the best defensive second baseman in the game which is why he’s won consecutive Gold Gloves.
Over the past three years, Wong’s 37 DRS is a significant step above the next best player. This is part of the reason why Wong has amassed the fifth best WAR over this timeframe over players whose primary positions over this timeframe has been second base.
Pairing Wong with Lindor would make this easily the best defensive tandem up the middle in the majors. For that matter, it could be better than Edgardo Alfonzo and Rey Ordoñez up the middle. That’s just how good they could be.
This would also be a huge turnaround for the current Mets. Since 2017, Mets second basemen have a -35 DRS, which is third worst in the majors. Over the same time period, their shortstops have had a -62 DRS, which is by far the worst in the majors.
All told, since the Mets last made the postseason, they’ve been the worst defensive team in the majors, and really, it’s not close. Adding Wong to Lindor would turn one of the team’s biggest weaknesses and make it a significant strength.
That means more ground balls become outs, and more double plays get turned. Marcus Stroman and his career 58.6 GB% and Carlos Carrasco with his career 48.6 GB% would become even more formidable pitchers. There’s also sinkerballer David Peterson who could benefit. Really, all Mets pitchers would benefit.
This means pitchers go deeper into games saving the bullpen. That keeps everyone stronger as they work their way through the season and hopefully head to the postseason.
Overall, adding Wong’s glove and league average bat (103 wRC+ since 2017) adds a dynamic to the Mets missing for 20 years. It gives the Mets superior up the middle defense helping the pitching staff and making the overall team better. As a result, signing Wong should now be a priority.
Now that Francisco Lindor is a member of the New York Mets, the team now has to try to find a way to sign the 27 year old superstar to a contract extension. This is the move the Los Angeles Dodgers made with Mookie Betts just last year.
Its also what the Mets once did with Keith Hernandez and Mike Piazza. Those moves resulted in a World Series, two pennants, two NL East titles, and four postseason appearances. Keeping Lindor can very well have the same impact on the Mets going forward.
However, it’s more than just Lindor. The Mets have key pieces of their core ready to hit free agency after this year.
First and foremost is Michael Conforto. In 2020, Conforto emerged as a true leader for this team and a potential future captain. Since moving past his shoulder injury, he’s re-established himself at the plate with a 135 OPS+ over the past two seasons.
Another homegrown Mets player who will be up for free agency is Noah Syndergaard, who will be returning from Tommy John at some point in 2021. Before suffering that injury, he was arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball.
From his debut in 2015 – 2019, Syndergaard was 10th best in the majors in FIP and WAR while having the second best hard hit rate. He’s also a pitcher who thrives on the big stage. He was the last Mets pitcher to win a postseason game, and in the last Mets postseason game he arguably out-pitched Madison Bumgarner over seven innings.
At 28, he’s still young and in his prime. This is the type of pitcher teams usually move to make a part of their franchise for as long as they possibly can.
Joining Syndergaard near the top of the Mets rotation and free agency is Marcus Stroman. Like Syndergaard, the 2017 World Baseball Classic MVP was born to pitch in the big game and on the biggest stage.
What truly stands out with Stroman is not just his positivity, but his tireless pursuit to improve as a pitcher. That is exactly the type of pitcher who not only tends to improve as years progress, but he’s the type of pitcher who has a positive impact on teammates.
New split-change I’ve been working on. @PitchingNinja @CodifyBaseball https://t.co/wXRgLKbpKo pic.twitter.com/CIYJKPdFb8
— Marcus Stroman (@STR0) December 29, 2020
In terms of advanced stats like FIP and WAR, he lines up as a number two starter. However, he’s someone who you trust against another team’s ace. He’s not good, and he’s not getting outworked by anyone.
Right there, the Mets have four extremely important pieces due for an extension. After 2020, their two best position players, and two of their best three starters hit the free agent market. If the Mets truly want to rival the Dodgers, they need to move to lock these pitchers up long term.
That’s easier said than done. Some of these players may want to test the free agent market. Steve Cohen’s pockets aren’t bottomless. There’s also the matter of other players on the team.
Steven Matz will also be a free agent. After the 2022 season, Brandon Nimmo and Seth Lugo will be free agents. Jacob deGrom can opt out of his contract after 2022, and the Mets have a team option on Carlos Carrasco.
Overall, the Mets have to make a number of extraordinarily important decisions on players on their roster over the ensuing two seasons. They need to balancing being able to extend those players with adding another huge contract.
By the looks of it, obtaining Lindor hasn’t completed the big moves for this Mets offseason. Rather, it means their work really has just begun.
With all due respect to Bud Harrelson and Rey Ordoñez, Jose Reyes is easily the best shortstop in Mets history. He’s the franchise leader in triples and stolen bases, and his name is scattered across the top ten rankings in team history.
Looking at WAR, he’s well ahead of the other shortstops, and he’s the 10th best player in Mets history. While it may take time to catch him, Francisco Lindor is well poised to surpass Reyes’ 27.9 WAR with the Mets.
Aside from the shortened 2020 season, Lindor is a player who never had below a 4.0 WAR. In fact, Lindor has never been below a 5.0 WAR when he’s been on the Opening Day roster in a 162 game season.
Keep in mind, that’s before Lindor even entered his prime. As he entered his prime, Lindor has been a 40+ double and 30+ homer player. That is in addition to playing Gold Glove caliber defense.
Assuming he holds true to that 5.0+ WAR level player, it’ll take Lindor approximately five seasons to surpass Reyes’ 27.9 WAR. At Lindor’s 30+ homer pace, he’ll surpass Reyes’ record for homers by a shortstop within four seasons.
That’s incredible to think. As a player, Reyes was one of the most exciting and dynamic players to ever wear the Mets uniform. He was a four time All-Star and to date the only Mets player to win a batting title.
The fact it could take Lindor approximately five seasons to surpass what Reyes did in 12 speaks to how phenomenal of a baseball player he is. In getting Lindor, the Mets are getting a future Hall of Famer. They are quite possibly getting the best player not named Tom Seaver or Mike Piazza to ever don a Mets uniform.
That’s the level of player Lindor is. If the Mets agree to an extension with him, Lindor should become the greatest shortstop in team history. He may also very well become the next Mets Hall of Famer, and we could see his 12 hanging next to Seaver’s 41 and Piazza’s 31.
The path is clear for Lindor to accomplish this and much more in a Mets uniform. The only thing standing in the way is a contract extension.
When the New York Mets pulled off that surprise blockbuster deal with the Cleveland Indians, they obtained Carlos Carrasco to be a mid-rotation starter. For the Mets, Carrasco is a perfect fit.
The 33 year old pitcher is on an extraordinarily team friendly deal. He’s owed just $12 million per year for each of the next two years with a third year option for $14 million. Historically, he’s outperformed that.
From 2016 – 2018, Carrasco averaged 15 wins a season posting a 3.39 ERA, 1.120 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9, and a 10.1 K/9. He averaged 6+ innings per start.
In terms of advanced stats, he had a 134 ERA+ and a 3.21 FIP. That FIP was the 10th best in baseball meaning he was pitching like a number one starter.
Carrasco struggler in 2019, but that was due in large part to his battling leukemia. Carrasco entered 2020 healthy, and he was great again with a 157 ERA+ and a 3.59 FIP. In essence, he was Carrasco.
Looking at it Carrasco being Carrasco is being a better pitcher than Bauer.
For that same 2016 – 2018 period, Bauer averaged 14 wins per season posting a 3.57 ERA, 1.257 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, and a 9.7 K/9. He also had a 125 ERA+ and a 3.45 FIP. Basically, across the board, Carrasco was better.
Now, if we shift the three year period to incorporate Bauer’s Cy Young winning 2020, things change a bit.
From 2018 – 2019, Bauer had a 3.18 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, and an 11.2 K/9. He had a 144 ERA+ and a 3.38 FIP. Across the board, these stats are better than Carrasco, and more to the point, Bauer showed a level in 2020 which Carrasco has never come close to reaching.
It should be noted that Bauer’s 2020 season came against really poor competition, and it was over the course of a 60 game season. Still, it did happen, and Bauer is four years younger.
The question is what is that worth.
With Carrasco, he’s being paid a relatively paltry $12 million per year. According to projections, Bauer is seeking to make north of $20 million more than that.
Yes, the Mets parted with players in the deal to get Carrasco and Francisco Lindor. Looking at that deal, Carrasco was almost treated as a throw-in. Of course, given his ability as a mid to top of rotation pitcher, you can never say he’s a throw-in.
And yet, the deal the Mets made to obtain him and Lindor was such a bargain you could perceive it as such. Taking that into account, Carrasco is a far better option than Bauer.
That goes double when you consider that $20 million difference can be utilized to try to extend Michael Conforto, Lindor, Noah Syndergaard, and Marcus Stroman.
Taking everything into account, Carrasco was a far superior option for the Mets than Bauer. Not only is Carrasco arguably a pitcher who will provide similar production, but he will also do so at a much cheaper price.
Getting Carrasco over Bauer means the Mets have the ability to keep their core as well as add to this team. Every way you break it down, obtaining Carrasco was a stroke of genius and a far, far better move than signing Bauer.
In case you were skeptical this was indeed a new era of New York Mets baseball, the Mets just acquired Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco from the Cleveland Indians. With that, the Mets added a top five player in the game at short, and they added a top of the rotation caliber pitcher to pair with Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman.
When you add these players to a core with Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, James McCann, Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, and Dominic Smith. Whether or not the Mets add another starter, bullpen arm, third baseman, or center fielder, the Mets already have the pieces in place to be a true World Series contender.
Just think about it for a moment. Assuming Noah Syndergaard returns this season, this is currently the Mets rotation:
Even if the Mets don’t go out there and sign a George Springer or add a third baseman, this is what the Mets lineup could look like during the course of the 2021 season:
- Brandon Nimmo, CF
- Michael Conforto, RF
- Pete Alonso, 1B
- Dominic Smith, LF
- Francisco Lindor, SS
- Jeff McNeil, 3B
- James McCann, C
- Luis Guillorme 2B
Sure, this Mets team could definitively stand to get better defensively in the outfield. That said, that infield defensive alignment is quite good, especially up the middle, and that lineup is as strong and deep as they come. This is a team who can go toe-to-toe with the defending division champion Atlanta Braves and the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Right now, this is a great baseball team.
What’s even better is the Mets are not done with their offseason. They are still going to add more pieces. That could include Springer, and it could be a reliever like Brad Hand. There are are likely going to be depth pieces added beyond this group. When all is said and done, the Mets with Steve Cohen, Sandy Alderson, and Jared Porter have already done and will continue to do what Jeff Wilpon and Brodie Van Wagenen could never even dream of doing.
Today is a great day in Mets history. Today is just like the day the Mets acquired Keith Hernandez, Gary Carter, and Mike Piazza. The Mets got a future Hall of Famer in his prime, and they completely changed the trajectory of the franchise both this year and in the years to come.
Lets Go Mets!
When it was announced the Mets were out on Tomoyuki Sugano, there were some Mets fans upset. After all, the Mets still need starters, and Sugano is one of, if not the, best available starting pitcher.
Well, today at 5:00 P.M. is the posting deadline for Sugano. Today, he either chooses a new MLB team, or he goes back to play again in Japan.
The option to return to Japan may be more enticing than it normally would for Sugano. There are already reports Sugano had some concerns about playing in the US due to COVID19.
On that front, his current NPL team, the Yomiuri Giants, have offered him a four year deal with opt outs after each season. In essence, the Giants have offered him the opportunity to stay at home one more year, allow the COVID19 situation in the US to improve, and then try again next year.
Still, there is more money on the table in Major League Baseball. There’s arguably greater fame and endorsement opportunities. Also, it’s apparent MLB is where Sugano needs to be.
Right now, there remains about three suitors trying to alleviate Sugano’s fears and selling him on what the future might be. At the moment, we know the Mets aren’t going to be one of those teams.
At 5:00 P.M., we will find out the wisdom of the Mets decision. We will know if they were out because Sugano made it clear he wasn’t ready to sign with an MLB team now due to COVID19. We will know if this current Mets front office weren’t able or weren’t interested in selling Sugano on the Mets and MLB.
Axiomatically, we may also find out if the Mets just had a different value for Sugano than the remaining suitors. Whatever the case, we’ll just know more about this Mets front office today.
Keep in mind, this isn’t final judgment. By no means does that take place now. That occurs when we see the team they take to Opening Day not just this year but in the ensuing years as well. Hopefully, that’ll come with the roster we see for the start of the postseason.
We don’t know much about those rosters right now. The only thing we know is it will not have Sugano. We’ll soon find out the prudence of the Mets being out of the bidding and the wisdom behind the decision.
The New York Mets are in an interesting position with their rotation. They’re set at the top with Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman. That could be the best 1-2 combination in all of baseball.
When Noah Syndergaard returns, that’s a tremendous top three. The question is what the Mets should do for the last two rotation spots.
Given the presence of Steven Matz and David Peterson, you could argue the Mets have the luxury of taking a shot at pure upside there. That brings us to Corey Kluber and James Paxton.
Both pitchers are coming off injury riddled seasons. Instead of cashing in on free agency, they’re having showcases to prove they can return to form. Those forms are better than anything on the market.
Before being traded to the Rangers and suffering a tear of the teres major muscle in his right shoulder, Kluber was one of the best pitchers in the majors.
In 2017 and 2018, he had a 172 ERA+, 2.82 FIP, and a 7.0 K/BB. If he can be anything close to that, he’s taking the Mets to the World Series.
However, there’s no knowing if he can get anywhere close to that. He struggled in his six starts before he suffered a broken arm from a comebacker. He never made it back that season due to injuries, and he lasted one inning in 2020 before the muscle tear.
If Kluber can get anywhere near his 2018 form, he’d be great. That 2018 form makes him well worth the gamble.
The same thing can be said about Paxton.
When the Seattle Mariners did their great sell off, Paxton went to the New York Yankees. In 2019, he had a 117 ERA+, 3.86 FIP, and a 3.38 K/BB. He showed he can handle the stage not just in that regular season but also with a big win in Game 5 of the ALCS.
Over a three year period (2016-2019), Paxton had a 120 ERA+, 3.26 FIP, and a 4.1 K/BB. That’s a very good pitcher.
What wasn’t good was Paxton’s 2020. He had a 6.64 ERA in five starts in an injury riddled season before shutting it down with a flexor strain. At the moment, his velocity isn’t all the way back with him throwing 94 MPH in a throwing session. Still, he’s getting there.
If Paxton’s ready by Opening Day, you want him in your rotation. Unfortunately, the only way you can really figure that out is by signing him. Teams have the right to be leery, but he’s well worth the risk.
If you’re the Mets, adding Kluber or Paxton to deGrom and Stroman is awfully enticing. That goes double when they would slot into the rotation as a three or four.
Adding both allows them to put Peterson in the minors as insurance and to permit him to improve in the areas where he needs to improve. In the event, Kluber or Paxton falter or aren’t quite ready for Opening Day, the Mets have Peterson.
If they work out and Syndergaard returns as planned, Matz becomes a weapon out of the bullpen. Alternatively, the Mets can cycle through all of these starters to keep them fresh and to the finish line much like they did in 2015.
Of course, the Mets can sign a more reliable option like Masahiro Tanaka or Jose Quintana to pair with one of Kluber or Paxton. You can understand that path.
That said, if you really believe Kluber and Paxton are healthy, and you believe in Jeremy Hefner, you roll the dice and add both. You give them the incentive laden deals they merit/want, and you allocate your funds towards George Springer, Brad Hand, and third base.
Ultimately, that’s just one of many paths before the Mets. Fortunately, they have the people in charge and the resources available that you can trust they’re going to make the right decisions to make the Mets a real contender.
With reports the New York Mets are not one of the finalists for Tomoyuki Sugano, there has been some consternation about fans for missing out on a big name in free agency which could have fulfilled a real need.
Yes, Sugano could’ve helped, and chances are he’d be very good. Still, there’s a number of reasons why the Mets failing to sign Sugano isn’t that big of a deal. In no particular order, here they are:
- Trevor Bauer
- Masahiro Tanaka
- Jake Odorizzi
- Corey Kluber
- Jose Quintana
- Taijuan Walker
- Alex Wood
- James Paxton
- Martin Perez
- Felix Hernandez
All of these pitchers and more are still available in free agency. There are also other pitchers possibly available via trade like Joe Musgrove.
There are still plenty of options remaining, and that doesn’t even include Noah Syndergaard who is likely to return at some point this season.
The moral of the story here is Mets fans need to calm down. The vast majority of the best free agents are still available, and it does not seem like they’re flying off the board just yet.
We just need to let this glacially slow offseason play out and trust this front office. Come Spring Training, this will very likely be a team which can contend for the division. At a minimum, this team is already vastly improved.
One issue we constantly talk about is how to prevent tanking in sports. In some ways, the 2020-2021 season has put a renewed emphasis on the discussion.
The New York Jets put an undrafted corner on an island. The Philadelphia Eagles threw a game against the Washington Football team. Both teams said they were trying to win, but when push came to shove, the coaching staff purposefully lost the games (or at least made decisions which they knew would help their teams lose).
The biggest reason why that happened is the NFL incentivizes losing. The same happens in all four sports leagues. The more you lose, the better your draft prospects. That holds true for the NHL and NBA with the draft lottery. While losing the most games doesn’t guarantee you the top pick in the draft, it does give you a better percent chance of getting that top pick.
The only way to disincentivize losing is to remove the benefit of losing. Professional sports organizations need to put a system in place which rewards teams actively trying to win. The best possible way to do that is a reverse draft order process.
The first overall pick in the draft should not go to the worst teams. Instead, the team who just misses out on the postseason should get the top pick. If you’re the nine seed in the NBA, congratulations, you are now rewarded by getting the top pick in the draft. The same goes for the seventh seed in the NFL, and the third place team in the MLB Wild Card race.
Making this one change would push teams to try to win instead of trying to lose. Basically, your points at the end of the season are going to be in the playoffs with the extra playoff revenue or to get the top player in the draft. This presents no downside to trying to win, and there is no incentive anywhere for a team to try to tank for the top pick.
Another added benefit is top picks will suddenly go to great situations. We may no longer talk about Sam Darnold being a bust with a terrible franchise. We may not look at Patrick Stefan as a solid second line center instead of one of the biggest busts in NHL history. Maybe Adam Morrison finds a way to be an effective third option or scorer off the bench instead of being a complete bust.
That’s partially what is at stake here. Professional sport leagues are looking to the next generation of player, their future superstars, and they are putting them in terrible situations. Instead of putting players where they can best succeed and grow thereby helping the player and the future of the league, they are asking them to be saviors to terrible franchises.
Taking a look at LeBron James, could you imagine if instead of going to the Cleveland Cavaliers, he went to the Houston Rockets. He could have joined a team with Yao Ming and Steve Francis coached by Rudy Tomjanovich. LeBron could have well surpassed Jordan in rings by now, and to a certain extent, the NBA could have avoided their current problem of players jumping together to form super-teams.
Now, the counter-argument is that such a system would make turning teams around all the more difficult. That is true, but so what?
Chances are if you are a bad team, it is partially because of how you operate your team. Look at the New York Knicks. Obviously, if they were able to grab a Steph Curry or LeBron James, things could have been very different. That said, this organization is in the predicament they’re in because they keep making flat out dumb and crazy decisions. Getting a LeBron will never change that.
Another counter to that argument is the proposed system could help the worst of the worst. If you have more teams actively trying to win, there is a shallower market of teams selling at the trade deadline. If you’re the only team with anything to offer because you’re one of the few teams willing to move players, you can extract a higher return than you are now. Those draft picks and younger players could then be the cornerstone of the team turning it around. If a team does this successfully, they will have a good core to allow them to grab the first pick in the draft.
Mostly, we have to acknowledge any system has its flaws. Given what we have seen in the four big professional sports over the last decade or so, we need to change a system which incentives trying to lose. Instead, we need to give teams the explicit goal of trying to win games. If you do that, you’re not going to see teams actively try to lose games both in game preparation, and as we saw with the Eagles, by actively throwing the game.
It is time to start putting the best young players onto the most promising teams and rewarding those teams who are trying to do things the right way. We need to stop incentivizing losing. We need to give the top draft picks to teams who actively try to win because they have earned it.
The Washington Football Team needed to beat the Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC East. Admittedly, the Eagles had nothing to play for except pride and professionalism.
The Eagles players upheld their end of the bargain playing hard and keeping the game within a field goal entering the fourth quarter.
That’s when Eagles Head Coach Doug Pederson brought in Nate Sudfeld, a player Cris Collinsworth kept saying the Eagles wanted to get a look at in this game. Apparently, Pederson felt compelled to play a QB in a tight game with playoff implications he had inactive 14/16 weeks.
Sudfeld is a 27 year old QB who threw exactly two passes over the past three seasons. In his five year career, he’s played in four out of a possible 80 games.
It should come as no surprise Sudfeld wasn’t just bad. No, he was completely non-competitive. You’d have more faith in Tim Tebow being up at the plate against Mariano Rivera with two outs in the bottom of the ninth.
Actually, Tebow probably would’ve had better odds.
Make no mistake, the Eagles well knew Sudfeld was going to be this bad, and they put him in intentionally. They did it for the same reason they didn’t call time outs in front of the two minute warning when Washington had third and long.
The Eagles simply had zero intention of winning this game. They wanted to lose, and when their players got too close to winning, the team did what they had to do to throw the game.
The Eagles did this so they’d move up in the draft. Due to their malfeasance, they were rewarded by moving up three spots in the draft. Instead of picking ninth, they now draft sixth.
So congratulations to them and to the NFL for incentivizing losing. They embarrassed their league, and they made a mockery of all professional sports competition. This wasn’t a tank. It was a dive.
In short, the Eagles are an embarrassment.