Musings
After toiling away away in the minor leagues for seven years, and after three teams had decided to move on from him, Ty Kelly found himself as a member of the Las Vegas 51s last year. At 27, it was becoming harder and harder to believe that Kelly was ever going to find that light at the end of the tunnel.
Still, he was undeterred. He just went out there and did all he could do to give the Mets no other choice but to call him up to the majors. He jumped right out of the gate hitting .386/.500/.477 in April. He was even better in May hitting .394/.463/.592. Kelly did this while also playing all eight defensive positions. Finally, due to a number of injuries, and his hot hitting, on May 24th, Kelly got the call up to the majors.
Unfortunately, Kelly struggled. Right off the bat, he was 0-4 with three strikeouts in his first ever game. During that first call-up, Kelly played in nine games only hitting .182/.250/.318. With that, call-up it seemed as if his first ever career home run might just be the lone highlight of his career:
His second call-up in June didn’t go much better with him going 0-5 in his five pinch hitting appearances. With that Kelly found himself in a familiar position. He was back in the minor leagues just waiting for his chance to get called back up to the major leauges. In some sense, this time it had to be all the more frustrating because he finally got his chance, and he struggled. He got his chance, and he was right back to square one. Fortunately for Kelly, he got one more chance, and he took advantage of it.
In August, Kelly was a surprise call-up due to his struggles, and he was an even bigger surprise as the starting left fielder. This time, Kelly took full advantage of the opportunity going 2-4 with two runs and a walk. During this stint, he proved he could hit at the major league level. He showed he can be a versatile player. Mostly, Kelly established there was a spot for him in the major leagues. This is no small feat for anyone, let alone anyone who waited over seven years for this chance.
In total, Kelly finished his first season in the major leagues hitting a very respectable .241/.352/.345 with a double, triple, home run, and seven RBI in 39 games. He was used in a myriad of roles playing first, second, third, and all three outfield positions. He was used as a pinch hitter and a pinch runner. He proved himself to be a smart baseball player. He earned himself a spot on the Mets Wild Card Game roster. In fact, Kelly should pinch hit for Addison Reed in the eighth inning, and he would get the one out single. His hit was only one of the four hits the Mets collected that day.
Kelly showed enough during his stint with the Mets to be named to the Team Israel roster in the World Baseball Classic. He was the team’s third baseman, and the number two hitter in a lineup that shocked the World by making it into the second round.
His play last season was enough to get him named to the Mets Opening Day roster, but it was not enough for him to stick. With both Zack Wheeler and Robert Gsellman both having short outings back-to-back, the Mets needed to clear space on the 40 man roster to bring up another pitcher. It was a numbers game, and Kelly was the one the Mets gambled on keeping. Ironically, the move was made so Paul Sewald could finally get his shot after waiting five years in the minor leagues.
It should come as no surprise that a team was interested in a player like Kelly. The Blue Jays made room on their roster for a player squeezed out by the Mets. Oddly enough, Kelly is now with a team that once passed over him. Once again, Kelly gets to prove everyone wrong and show both the Blue Jays and all of Major League Baseball that he belongs in the majors. Based upon last year, I wouldn’t bet against him.
And when he finally does get called back up to the majors, and we know he will, all Mets fans should wish him the best of luck. I know I will.
After the game last night, Terry Collins joked, “I’ve got the FBI looking for the real Jose Reyes right now.”
Instead of having the FBI look for Reyes, Collins should have the FBI look for a better option at third base and to bat lead-off.
Now, no one can reasonably believe that Reyes is as bad as his current 1-27 streak. Even with Reyes fighting it since Spring Training, you’d expect him to at least beat out a throw with his speed. Reyes is better than this.
And yet, Reyes still isn’t good enough to be asked to play everyday and lead-off. Since Reyes’ career year in 2011 when he became the first ever Mets player to win a batting title, Reyes has been on a decline. That decline has been accelerated the past three years.
Consider during his first go-round with the Mets, Reyes was a .292/.341/.441 hitter who averaged 25 doubles, 11 triples, nine homers, 47 RBI, and 41 stolen bases a season. In that time, he accumulated 27.9 WAR. However, Reyes was more than just stats He was a dynamic shortstop whose exuberance pumped up the team and the crowd.
Since leaving the Mets, Reyes has been a .281/.331/.410 hitter who has averaged 21 doubles, four triples, eight homers, 37 RBI, and 20 stolen bases. The bulk of those stats come from Reyes first year in both Miami and Toronto. The numbers get worse from there.
In the last three seasons, Reyes is a .279/.321/.400 hitter who averages 24 doubles, three triples, eight homers, 43 RBI, and 21 stolen bases.
Now, with Reyes coming back to the Mets last year, the narrative was Reyes would be rejuvenated by playing for the Mets again. As we see with Reyes’ 1-27 streak this season, that has been proven false.
Reyes is a 33 year old player in decline. He’s more in decline as a left-handed batter as he has been a .225/.276/.347 hitter.
When you can’t hit right-handed pitching anymore, you can’t play everyday. When you have a .321 OBP over the past three seasons, you can’t hit leadoff.
The issue here is that this is a problem with no easy solution. Wilmer Flores has the same issues against right-handed pitching. Many Mets fans solution would be to platoon him with Kelly Johnson, but Johnson is still a free agent.
T.J. Rivera was a big part of the Mets push to the Wild Card last year, but it’s doubtful he can play everyday as his aggressiveness at the plate has suppressed his OBP in his minor league career.
It’s probably still too early to consider Gavin Cecchini or Amed Rosario to get the call-up. No one can reasonably say when David Wright will return.
And with that, the Mets are likely out of third base options. Arguably, Reyes is still the best option at third base. That argument gets harder and harder to defend with each out he makes.
One thing that is indefensible is batting him lead-off. His .321 OBP over the past three years demands he hit lower in the lineup. His struggles this season beg for it to happen sooner rather than later.
In his place, the Mets can literally pick anyone else as they cannot possibly be this poor. Ideally, that someone would also play third base. Unfortunately, that player does not exist, at least right now.
Perhaps that player will be discovered as part of the FBI investigation.
This year marks the seventh year Terry Collins has been the Mets manager. In those seven years, he has left a wake of horrible decisions and the careers of some players, namely Scott Rice and Jim Henderson.
Collins seems to be in rare form in what he had previously said was going to be his last before retirement. Already this year, he has made some poor and dangerous decisions.
Now, some like starting Jay Bruce over Michael Conforto is an organizational decision. Some decisions are designed to give players a mental and physical day of rest, and they should not be over-analyzed. However, many others, as you’ll see below, fall under the purview of Collins poor managing:
Opening Day – 4/3
Mets 6 – Braves 0
Collins sets out a lineup that makes little sense including batting his second worse OBP guy in Jose Reyes lead-off. He also made a strategical blunder hitting Bruce ahead of Lucas Duda. The issues there are more detailed here.
After Noah Syndergaard left the game with a blister, Collins turned to fifth starter Robert Gsellman for an inning in a 6-0 blowout instead of Rafael Montero, who could have benefited from a pressure free outing to build his confidence.
April 5th
Braves 3 – Mets 1
It’s not Collins’ fault the bullpen blew the lead, and he had to rip through his pen in an extra inning game. However, going to Montero over Josh Smoker was a poor decision. Smoker is just a one inning pitcher. He can’t be the last guy up. Also, he’s better than Montero, and as such, he shouldn’t pitched first.
Also, in extras, Collins turned to Ty Kelly over T.J. Rivera and Wilmer Flores with two outs and the winning run on second. In 2016, Kelly hit .179 off right-handed pitching to Flores’ .232 and Rivera’s .386. Another factor is with Conforto already having pinch hit, Kelly was the last OF on the bench.
April 6th
Mets 6 – Braves 2
No issues.
April 7th
Marlins 7 – Mets 2
You could argue Collins should’ve lifted Zack Wheeler before the fourth as he labored in ever inning except the first, but focusing too much on this may be picking nits at this point. What was really peculiar was it was obvious the Mets were going to need someone to soak up innings with Wheeler’s short outing. Last year, Smoker proved he is not a multiple inning reliever. Despite that being the case, Collins turned to Smoker over Montero or Hansel Robles, who are two pitchers that can go deep in relief. These are the types of decisions that exhaust bullpens.
April 8th
Marlins 8 – Mets 1
With Gsellman going five, Collins had to go deeper in the pen that he would’ve liked. He went too deep when he brought in Montero. The previous day Montero threw 35 pitches over 2.2 innings. On Wednesday, Montero threw 35 pitches over 1.2 innings. That’s 70 pitches over 4.2 innings without much rest. Montero struggled leading Collins to bring in Fernando Salas who has now appeared in four of the Mets five games himself.
April 9th
Mets 5 – Marlins 2
No issues.
April 10th
Mets 4 – Phillies 3
In the top of the seventh with the score tied at two, Collins put Conforto in the on deck circle, and the Phillies countered by having Joely Rodriguez warm-up. By Collins tipping his hand a bit, he was forced to make the choice of Conforto against the left-handed pitcher or to go with one of his right-handed bench options to pinch hit for Jacob deGrom.
Now, there is a lot of small sample size bias, but Collins options where Conforto (.129/.191/.145 vs. LHP), Flores (.252/.286/.372 vs. RHP), and Rivera (.386/.397/.600 vs. RHP). Again, there are small sample sizes, but based upon the information you would say your best bet is Rivera against Jerad Eickhoff. Instead, Collins went with Flores, who flew out to end the inning and the rally.
One other small note. Based upon the relative production of the Mets players, putting Bruce in the clean-up spot was a defensible and probably the smart move. It’s more than just production, Bruce just looks better at the plate than anyone in the lineup right now. However, according to Collins, Bruce was moved up in the lineup because he was hot. Of course, Bruce wasn’t as he was in the midst of a 2-14 streak.
It’s a problem when the manager is making a move predicated on a faulty premise. It does not matter if it was the right move or it worked out. The problem is the reasoning behind it was flawed.
April 11th
Mets 14 – Phillies 4
No issues.
April 12th
Mets 5 – Phillies 4
To be fair, the following isn’t necessarily a critique of Collins. It really is a critique of most baseball managers. With the Mets up 5-0, and Zack Wheeler loading the bases, Collins summoned Hansel Robles to the mound. While Gary and Ron Darling were harping on it being his third consecutive game, he had only pitched two innings and threw just 20 pitches in that stretch. It’s really difficult to infer Robles was tired.
Rather, the issue is why don’t you use Fernando Salas in that spot? He’s well rested, and he’s arguably your second best reliever right now. This really was the biggest out of the game. The Mets get the out here, and they go to the seventh up 5-0. From there, you can go with some of your lesser arms to close out the game.
Instead, Collins went with his best reliever that wasn’t his 7th, 8th, or 9th inning guy. This is what every manager does in this spot, so this is not unique to Collins. Another point to be made here is Collins going to Robles is justifiable as Robles is a good relief pitcher, and he has bailed the Mets out of similar situations in the past. Again, this is more of a critique of major league managers as a whole than just Collins.
April 13th
Mets 9 – Marlins 8 (16)
Well, this was a long game leaving Collins to make a lot of curious moves that helped lead to this being a 16 inning game that exhausted the Mets bullpen.
Despite the Mets facing a left-handed pitcher in Wei-Yin Chen, the Mets playing a large outfield, and the Mets rushing him back from the disabled list, Juan Lagares was not in the starting lineup.
After four innings, Collins lifted T.J. Rivera from the game for no reason at all. There were no injury issues or defensive problems. This move indirectly led to Rene Rivera playing first base in extra innings and Jacob deGrom having to make a pinch hitting appearance.
In the fifth, despite Gsellman not having anything, Collins pushed him, and the results were terrible. Collins then turned to his worst reliever in Josh Edgin to help Gsellman get out of the jam. The end result was the Marlins not only erasing a three run deficit, but also taking an 8-7 lead.
The Mets tied it and the game went 16 innings. Over the course of those innings, the bullpen was absolutely exhausted which will have far reaching implications in the short and long term.
April 14th
Marlins 3 – Mets 2
To be fair, after a 16 inning game, the Mets did not have a lot of options available in the bullpen. However, it is puzzling why Collins would go with Edgin, who has struggled most of the season, over a fully rested Sean Gilmartin who was brought up for the sole purpose of helping the bullpen. Putting Edgin in for two innings essentially conceded the game. That’s effectively what happened.
April 15th
Marlins 5 – Mets 4
After ONE decent game this season, Collins just rushed ahead and put Reyes back in the lead-off spot. In response, Reyes was 0-3 with a walk. It didn’t prevent the Mets from taking a lead, but again, it shows Collins’ poor though process.
In the eighth, the Mets had Jerry Blevins warming in bullpen when Christian Yelich walked to the plate. Now, you can argue that Salas is the eighth inning reliever until Jeurys Familia returns, and this is his spot. However, when you have Blevins warming up, you have him pitch to the left-handed batter in key situtations. Instead, Salas allowed a game tying home run followed by a go-ahead home run to Giancarlo Stanton.
April 16th
Marlins 4 – Mets 2
No issues.
April 18th
Phillies 6 – Mets 2 (10)
For most of the game, it appeared as if Collins was managing a pretty good game. The most egregious error was batting d’Arnaud behind Reyes, who can’t hit right now, and Walker, who can’t hit as a left-handed batter right now. However, you can excuse that when you consider Collins has to manage a clubhouse and respect veterans.
I’d go so far as to argue Collins deftly managed the bullpen last night. That was until the 10th inning. With a fully rested Sean Gilmartin and a Montero who seemingly gets worse with each and every outing, you simply cannot go to Montero in that spot. It is essentially waiving a white flag. And you know what, that’s exactly what Collins did.
The Phillies quickly had runners on first and second because, well, Montero was pitching. You’re in the 10th inning, and the Mets have no hit at all in the game, you absolutely have to bring your infield in. For some reason, Collins didn’t. It would up not mattering because Montero allowed a sacrifice to the deepest part of right field, but still, how do you not bring your infield in in that spot? It’s an egregious error perhaps more egregious than the Reyes one that lead to the game going into extra innings.
April 19th
Mets 5 – Phillies 4
You could argue that Reyes hitting seventh in front of d’Arnaud is a pressing issue, or his presence in the lineup might be one as well. However, you have to consider Collins has to manage personalities in that clubhouse, and he has to at least consider the impact batting Reyes eighth may have. Right now, this is an area where Collins should get some latitude.
Another thing to note, keeping Gsellman in to bunt and pitch to the first batter in the eighth was a defensible move. The bench was short with Duda and d’Arnaud coming out of the game due to injury. Also, the bullpen has been overworked. Even saving them from having to get one batter is a help right now.
Accordingly, there were no issues with last night’s game.
April 20th
Phillies 6 – Mets 4
People want to harp on Familia throwing 30 pitches in the ninth, but the bullpen has been exhausted, and the Mets really didn’t give him work in the minors. There were no issues with this game.
April 21st
Nationals 4 – Mets 3 (11)
Collins was extremely limited because of the injuries, and yet, he still managed to work a way around that excuse. In the ninth, Collins used Gsellman to pinch run for Rene Rivera. With Lagares in the game already due to the Cespedes’ injury, Collins had to go to his pitchers for pinch running and pinch hitting opportunities, so this was certainly understandable. What happened after wasn’t.
First and foremost, Collins asked T.J. Rivera to lay down a bunt. Now, analytical people would say this was the wrong move because the sacrifice bunt in that situation actually decreases the chances of your scoring. They’re right, but there’s more to that. Behind Rivera is the pitcher’s spot meaning you are going to have to have one of your players too injured to start the game enter as a pinch hitter. That player was Cabrera.
Cabrera worked out a walk. Once his foot touched second, Kevin Plawecki was already coming into the game as a pinch runner. Why Collins just didn’t put Plawecki, the more experienced base runner, in for Rivera is certainly questionable. There’s another matter to consider. Plawecki was the last player on the bench who could play the field. This meant that if the Mets didn’t score here, the pitcher’s spot in the order was going to come up sooner. This meant that d’Arnaud had to pinch hit in the bottom of the 11th.
It should be noted d’Arnaud was so injured he couldn’t start the game. It should also be noted when the game was tied in the seventh, Collins had turned to Wheeler to pinch hit. There’s not congruent thought that can come from all of this.
April 22nd
Nationals 3 – Mets 1
Collins playing Cabrera in this game was a poor decision. Cabrera was so hobbled the night before he couldn’t run the bases. In this game, you saw why. He was clearly hobbled and had even more difficulty getting around than he usually does. He was noticeably in pain, and he was playing on a slick field. There was an incident in the fifth inning where he tried to leg out an infield single, and it looked like he was going to need help to get off the field. Cabrera would come out to take his position just before the beginning of the next half inning.
April 23rd
Nationals 6 – Mets 3
Other than a clearly hobbled and limited Cabrera playing again, no issues.
April 26th
Braves 8 – Mets 2
There were two off days due to the rainout, but Collins having Salas warm up on multiple occasions was a poor decision. It is bad enough Salas is on pace for over 100 appearances. It is worse when he warms up multiple times a game. After having warmed up multiple times, Salas came in and pitched poorly again allowing two earned run in his inning of work.
April 27th
Braves 7 – Mets 5
We’ve all seen the video by now. Cespedes was hobbled and wincing while taking batting practice. If he’s a bench player or the most important player on the team, you cannot put a compromised player in the lineup. You are only asking for whatever injury is there to be exacerbated. That’s exactly what happened. On Cespedes’ fourth inning double, he pulled up to second base lame. He had to be helped off the field. Instead of him sitting out a day game after a night game, now he is sure to miss a lot of time. Sandy Alderson deserves his fair share of blame for allowing the decision to happen. Collins may deserve more after his post game meltdown where he effectively stated he won’t second guess the decision to not put Cespedes on the disabled list.
In his opinion, if you put every injured player on the disabled list, you’ll run out of people to play. Of course, it doesn’t work that way. If you put injured people on the disabled list, you can call up healthy players to play. Instead, the Mets keep injured players on the team who can’t even pinch hit. Then, when they get in a game, they get injured more meaning they’re out for a longer period of time. It is really disconcerting that this needs to be explained.
The real gem from Collins was Cespedes did all he needed to do to get into the lineup. Really? He couldn’t even take batting practice without complication. What did he need to do? Put on the correct hat and jersey combination for that game?
By the way, since Cespedes’ injury, he’s played 13 innings. Lets see how many more he plays in the first half of the season after he was helped off the field.
With the full season minor leagues having their Opening Day on Thursday, the Mets have announced the rosters for each of their minor league affiliates. Each team includes an interesting group of prospects. Each team also features a particular strength of each aspect of the Mets farm system. Keeping in mind each particular group is viewed not just in terms of how good the players are now, but also how they project going forward, here are the best of the best:
Best Starting Pitching – St. Lucie Mets
Starting Rotation: Andrew Church, Justin Dunn, Marcos Molina, Nabil Crismatt, Kevin Canelon, Chase Ingram, Thomas McIlrath, Joe Shaw
The St. Lucie rotation features a number of pitchers who may very well make their way to a major league mound. The former second round draft pick Church fixed both his hip and his mechanics, and he had a breakout season last year. Dunn is already a top 10 Mets prospect a year after he was drafted. Molina is back from Tommy John surgery, and he has looked good in both the Arizona Fall Leauge and Spring Training. Crismatt more than held his own against the vaunted Dominican Republic team in the World Baseball Classic. This is as exciting a rotation as there is in the minor leauges, and possibly, you will see some version of this rotation with the Mets one day.
Honorable Mention: Columbia Fireflies. A rotation with Jordan Humphreys, Merandy Gonzalez, and Harol Gonzalez is a very interesting minor league rotation. It would have been more interesting with Thomas Szapucki, but he is slated to miss time due to a shoulder impingement.
Best Bullpen – Las Vegas 51s
Bullpen: Paul Sewald, David Roseboom, Ben Rowen, Beck Wheeler, Erik Goeddel, Chase Bradford)
The 51s bullpen features Sewald and Roseboom who were both extremely effective closers last season. Certainly, both impressed the Mets enough to get long looks during Spring Training. Prior to having bone spurs removed, Goeddle was an effective major league reliever. Rowen gives you a different look with his sidewinding action on the mound. Arguably, this could be a major league bullpen that could hold its own.
Honorable Mention: Binghamton Rumble Ponies. The Rumble Ponies bullpen has Corey Taylor, who has been favorable compared to Jeurys Familia, as its closer. There are some other interesting names like Ben Griset, who is a very promising LOOGY, and Luis Mateo, who was once a very well thought out prospect before he faced some injury issues.
Best Catching Tandem – Las Vegas 51s
Catchers: Kevin Plawecki, Xorge Carrillo, Jeff Glenn
If nothing else, Plawecki has established he can handle a major league starting staff. More to the point, Plawecki has shown himself to be a very good pitch framer. While his bat has lagged in the majors, at 26, he still has time to improve. Behind him is Carrillo, who is a good defensive catcher that won the Gold Glove in the Mexican Winter Leagues this past offseason.
Honorable Mention: Binghamton Rumble Ponies. Tomas Nido seemingly put it all together in St. Lucie last year, and he appears poised to take the mantle as the Mets catcher of the future. Binghamton very easily could have been named the top catching tandem off that, but some deference was paid to Plawecki showing he can handle the position defensively at the major league level.
Best Infield – Las Vegas 51s
Infield – 1B Dominic Smith, 2B Gavin Cecchini, 3B Phillip Evans, SS Amed Rosario
When the weak point of your infield is a player who is coming off a season where he won the Eastern League batting title, you know you have something special. Rosario and Smith are considered two of the best prospects not only at their positions, but in the entire game. Cecchini played well enough last year to be put on the 40 man roster a year ahead of schedule and earn a September call-up where he hit two doubles in six major league at-bats.
Honorable Mention: St. Lucie Mets. The team features a pair of 2016 draft picks in 1B Peter Alonso and SS Colby Woodmansee who showed real ability during their time in Brooklyn. Due to that success, they both skipped Columbia and joined an interesting second base prospect in Vinny Siena and a promising hitter at third base in Jhoan Urena.
Best Outfield – Columbia Fireflies
Outfield – Desmond Lindsay, Gene Cone, Jacob Zanon, Tim Tebow
No, this isn’t because of Tebow. This is mostly about Lindsay, who has been labeled as an “offensive machine” by the Mets organization. He is a five tool prospect that with a little health will arrive at Citi Field sooner rather than later. Another interesting five tool prospect is former Division II player Zanon. He certainly has all the tools to succeed. It is a question whether those tools can translate against better competition. Cone is a player who has a good baseball IQ, but he still needs to translate that and his talent to on the field success
Honorable Mention: Las Vegas 51s. The outfield got demonstratively better with the recent signing of Desmond Jennings. It will get better with either Brandon Nimmo or Michael Conforto playing for them again. That depends on Nimmo’s health as well as the health of the major league outfield. It will also be interesting to see how Matt Reynolds handles taking on what was Ty Kelly‘s role last year in being a utility player that mostly plays left field.
Overall, the Mets have a number of good to very good prospects who are either close or project to be major leaguers. Some of those players like Rosario will be stars. Others should have long major league careers. While we are getting excited for another year of Mets baseball, we also have a lot to be excited about for years to come with these prospects.
With Opening Day already behind us, it is now time to look forward to see how the rest of the 2017 season will progress. Yes, this is the typically ill-fated projections post. As with anything else, this will likely be wrong by season’s end, and with any luck, I will be reminded of it come October.
AL East – Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox won the division last year with an MVP caliber season from Mookie Betts, Rick Porcello with a more ways than one surprising Cy Young season, and lots of young talent. The team will be hurt by the loss of David Ortiz, but they will be helped by the addition of Chris Sale, who should help boost a rotation that has David Price as a question mark. Considering the rest of the AL East downgraded as well, it it fair to surmise the downgraded Red Sox roster will stay on top.
AL Central – Cleveland Indians
So, the American League Pennant winners add Edwin Encarnacion, get Michael Brantley back, and return Carlos Correa from injury? That’s the rich getting richer. This team is poised to not only win the division again, but they should be poised to return to the World Series.
AL West – Texas Rangers
This team is truly going to benefit from a full season of Jonathan Lucroy behind the plate, and they are also going to benefit from a full season from Yu Darvish. Combine that with a good bullpen, an excellent manager in Jeff Banister, and veteran leaders in Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli, you have a team that will get the most of its roster and be able to win those close and tight games like they did last year.
AL Wild Card 1 – Houston Astros
The Astros will probably lose the division due to the lack of depth in their starting pitching. However, with a deep lineup that has George Springer–Alex Bregman–Jose Altuve–Carlos Correa–Carlos Beltran as their top five hitters. Combine that with Beltran’s leadership and mentoring of young players, and this is a team that will give the Rangers all they can give them.
AL Wild Card 2 – Seattle Mariners
The Mariners fell heartbreakingly short last season, and they have improved the roster with Jerry DiPoto suddenly becoming Trader Jack McKeon. To name a few, the Mariners added Jean Segura, Yovani Gallardo, and Drew Smyly to what was already a pretty good team with Felix Hernandez, Robinson Cano, and Kyle Seager.
NL East – New York Mets
The Nationals are certainly more formidable than they were last year with them having a full year of Trea Turner and with the Adam Eaton acquisition. However, on the pitching side, they do not have the depth they typically have, and that is an issue with Stephen Strasburg‘s medical history and Max Scherzer having questionable health entering the season. Ultimately, it is the Mets depth that should carry the team over the Nationals in what promises to be a tight race.
NL Central – Chicago Cubs
They won the World Series last year, and they get Kyle Schwarber back into the lineup everyday and add Wade Davis to the bullpen. The real question is not whether they win the division, but whether they get to 100 wins again.
NL West – Los Angeles Dodgers
Like with the National League East, the top two teams are very close, and it’s picking hairs to separate them. If you look at it Clayton Kershaw is better than Madison Bumgarner. Kenley Jansen is better than Mark Melancon. Johnny Cueto is better than another other pitcher the Dodgers have, but the Dodgers have a deeper rotation than the Giants. The Dodgers also arguably have the deeper lineup. If it goes in the reverse, no one should be surprised, but ultimately, the Dodgers appear better on paper.
NL Wild Card 1 – San Francisco Giants
When you have Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, and two aces atop your rotation, it is hard to believe you are going to miss the postseason in its entirety.
NL Wild Card 2 – Washington Nationals
While the team is not deep and has some issues, there are real strengths. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy are as good and as clutch a 3-4 combination as there is. The bullpen with Koda Glover, Joe Blanton, Shawn Kelley, and Blake Treinen could be dominant. Again, their only real question is health.
Postseason Series
AL Wild Card Game – Postseason Beltran and the Astros offense overcomes King Felix in his first ever postseason start.
ALDS – In what proves to be a slugfest, the better Astros lineup carries them past the Red Sox. In the other ALDS matchup, the Indians pitching, including the unleashing of Andrew Miller proves to be too much for the Rangers.
ALCS – The Indians pitching proves to be too much for a hot hitting Astros team leading them to consecutive World Series appearances.
NL Wild Card Game – Pick your reason: (1) Bumgarner; or (2) it’s technically a postseason series.
NLDS – This year, the Giants with an improved bullpen won’t be denied as Cueto and Bumgarner led the Giants past the Cubs. The Mets and the Dodgers 2015 NLDS matchup is not as intense as the Dodgers only have Kershaw to match the Mets aces leaving the Mets to be able to get past them a little easier this go-round.
NLCS – Bumgarner and Cueto are offset by Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. After that, the Mets can pick from Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman, Zack Wheeler, or maybe even Seth Lugo. You’d probably take any of them over the Giants next best starter Jeff Samardzija. As such, the Mets pitching outlasts the Giants pitching.
World Series – As painful as this is to say, Terry Francona just manages his way around Terry Collins and brings the Indians their first World Series title since 1948.
Power pitchers always present a conundrum. When they’re young and at their best, they dominate. However, they won’t always have that fastball. The question then becomes what next? Can the pitcher effectively adapt with a diminished fastball to be a quality starter? Can they still be dominant?
As Mets fans, we saw it first-hand with Pedro Martinez. In Boston, Pedro threw in the high 90s, and he put together legendarily great seasons. Towards the end of his Boston run and his time with the Mets, Pedro was in the low 90s forcing him to focus even more on location and movement.
In 2005, Pedro did that better than anyone going 15-8 with a 2.82 ERA, 0.949 WHIP, and an 8.6 K/9. He was an All Star. He was dominant. He could’ve done more if not for foot and shoulder injuries.
Judging from Matt Harvey‘s start last night, we may be watching Harvey try to emulate what Pedro did so well in 2005.
When Harvey burst on the scene in 2013, he was throwing in the high 90s and would hit 100 MPH. After his Tommy John surgery, Harvey again was living in the high 90s even if he wasn’t quite getting it to 100 MPH anymore. After Harvey’s surgery to remove a rib to alleviate the effects of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (TOS), his velocity hasn’t quite returned yet. During Spring Training, what velocity he did have wasn’t consistently there.
As a result, Harvey had to adapt. Adapt he did.
Last night, instead of trying to blow his four seamer past batters, Harvey relied almost exclusively on his two seamer. Instead of being in the high 90s, Harvey was hovering around 94 MPH. Instead of trying to rack up the strikeouts, he was relying on movement, location, and pitching to contact.
We saw an economical Harvey who only needing 77 pitches to get through 6.2 innings. Other than two mistakes Matt Kemp turned into long home runs, Harvey mostly yielded week contact. Impressively, Harvey seemed to get stronger as the game went on recording two of his four strikeouts in the seventh. While it wasn’t the typical Harvey start we were used to seeing, it was the same Harvey. He had the swagger on the mound, and he dominated the opposition.
And with that, we have a glimpse of the transformation Harvey is undertaking in the event his velocity never fully returns. With him, we see a pitcher who is knows how to pitch. We see a pitcher able to reinvent himself. We see a pitcher able to dominate in more ways than one.
This is extremely important. The Mets have decisions over the next few years on who to keep and who should go. Essentially, you’re gauging who is going to be Pedro and who is going to be Tim Lincecum. The ones that go the Pedro route are the ones who are worthy of contract extensions. They are going to be the pitchers who will continue to pitch at a high level, and they will help the Mets compete for the World Series year in and year out. While there may have been some doubt Harvey was that type of pitcher, last night, he started to put those concerns to bed.
When Harvey was first called up to the majors, we knew he was special. Seeing him last night, he showed just how special he could be. He could be one of the greats that has the ability to get outs no matter what he has. If that is the case, even though he is represented by Scott Boras, he might just be the first pitcher you want to sign to a contract extension.
However, before we get to that point, let’s just enjoy Harvey for what he is. He’s already gone a long way in calming our concerns about him and the rotation. We can once again dream of the Mets winning a World Series this year with a rotation headlined by him, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard.
Through 20 innings, the Mets have only scored in two of them. Most of their runs have been scored when Eric O’Flaherty took the mound on Opening Day. As the Mets don’t get to face the O’Flahertys of the world 162 games in a season, some doubt can begin to creep into fans minds about this offense.
With 160 games left on the schedule, it is way too soon to panic. And yet . . . .
There are some obvious flaws with this offense. Notably, this is not a team that gets on base. This is important because getting on base is usually a prerequisite for scoring a run. Here are the OBP for the Mets lineup over the past three seasons:
- Jose Reyes .321
- Asdrubal Cabrera .319
- Yoenis Cespedes .326
- Curtis Granderson .342
- Neil Walker .338
- Jay Bruce .295
- Lucas Duda .344
- Travis d’Arnaud .314
According to Baseball Reference, the major league average OBP last year was .322. This means half of the Mets lineup is under the league average. Now matter how you may try to justify it, that’s not good.
Now, there are some caveats to the above-listed OBPs. Since joining the Mets, Cespedes has a .348 OBP. Since being reunited with Kevin Long, Granderson’s is .350. Cabrera (.339) and Walker (.346) have each seen similar upticks working with Long.
It’s a small sample size, but Bruce has certainly looked like an improved hitter this season. Surprisingly, we drew three walks on Opening Day.
Duda’s OBP is skewed due to an injury plagued year last year. Eliminate last year, and Duda has a .350 OBP. Skewing in the opposite direction, d’Arnaud had a .340 OBP in 2015.
Point is that while there are red flags all around this offense, there is still reason to believe this team can start clicking offensively. It’s a long season which gives the Mets a long time to figure things out.
Still, we need to keep in the back of our minds, there’s a reason the Mets players have put up poor OBPs over the course of the prior three seasons.
Overall, this means Kevin Long, Pat Roessler, and the entire Mets team have their work cut out for them. If they don’t address this OBP issue, the Mets are going to struggle offensively like they did in much of 2015 and 2016.
If they do address the issue, the Mets will have quite the formidable offense. It’ll be one that can carry you to the postseason. It could be one that brings home a World Series.
But that’s getting ahead of ourselves. Before getting to the World Series, the Mets need to focus on getting to first base. As we see that may be easier said than done.
With Steven Matz suffering from a flexor tendon strain and Seth Lugo suffering from a partially torn UCL, the Mets deep pitching staff is no more. This is a concern because teams rarely if ever go through a season using just five starters. Even assuming good health, it is impractical to think the Mets will be that team especially with Zack Wheeler being limited to around 125 innings this season. With that in mind, the Mets are likely going to have to go deeper into the pitching ranks at some point this season. Here are the current Mets internal options on that front:
RHP Rafael Montero
2016 Stats: 0-1, 8.05 ERA, 9 G, 3 GS, 19.0 IP, 2.053 WHIP, 9.5 K/9
It’s amazing how the Mets keep getting back to the point where they are going to have to rely on Montero to contribute in some fashion. Frankly, its more amazing that he’s still a Met after failing to capitalize on all the opportunities he’s been given. The talent is there, and it has been tantalizing. However, he hasn’t trusted it in the big leagues leading to him walking batters and giving up hits. He seemed to trust it better during Spring Training, and he actually won a spot on the Opening Day roster. We’ve been fooled before, but maybe this is a new Montero. Whether we like it or not, we may soon find out.
LHP Sean Gilmartin
2016 Stats: 0-1, 7.13 ERA, 14 G, GS, 17.2 IP, 1.585 WHIP, 5.6 K/9
When the Mets needed to make a roster move to help make room for Jerry Blevins on the 40 man roster, Gilmartin and Montero were eyed as potential cuts due to their struggles last season. With the Mets finding a taker for Gabriel Ynoa, Gilmartin got another chance. It’s also another chance to find out what he is exactly. In 2015, he was good as the long man out of the bullpen. In 2016, Gilmartin jumped out of the gate great in Las Vegas going 2-1 with a 1.66 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in April. From there, the Mets messed with his arm a bit. On multiple occasions, he was put on the red eye and asked to make a relief appearance with less than full rest after a start. Eventually, he had shoulder issues, and his season fell apart. We will see if the Mets are more judicious in their use of him this year. We may also find out which version of Gilmartin is the real version.
LHP Tom Gorzelanny
2016 Stats: 1-0, 21.00 ERA, 7 G, 3.0 IP, 3.000 WHIP, 12.0 K/9
It has been six years since Gorzelanny has been a part of a major league rotation. The reason is as a major league starter Gorzelanny is 37-47 with a 4.62 ERA, 1.474 WHIP, and a 7.0 K/9 in his 121 starts. Even worse, when Gorzelanny starts, batters are hitting .272/.345/.431. Realistically speaking, he was brought in to compete for a job as a left-handed pitcher out of the bullpen. He lost that competition, and he should be nowhere near the major league rotation.
LHP Adam Wilk
2016 MiLB Stats: 2-8, 3.61 ERA, 15 G, 15 GS, 87.1 IP, 1.122 WHIP, 5.77 K/9
The 29 year old left-handed pitcher has thrown a total of 26.1 major league innings in his professional career. The Mets invited him to Spring Training on the off chance that he could show some ability as a LOOGY out of the bullpen. More realistically speaking, Wilk was brought in as organizational depth as the Mets needed some arms to fill out their Triple A rotation.
RHP Ricky Knapp
2016 MiLB Stats: 13-6, 2.69 ERA, 25 G, 24 GS, 163.2 IP, 1.143 WHIP, 6.3 K/9
MMN‘s 32nd ranked prospect is coming off a breakout year in the Mets farm system. The son of a coach has terrific and repeatable mechanics, and he knows how to pitch. Knapp is a true four pitch pitcher with no true plus pitch and his fastball sits at 88-92 MPH. He typically pitches to contact, and he keeps the ball on the ground. Knapp threw the most complete games out of anyone in the Mets organization last year. Pitchers like him typically struggle in Las Vegas, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t be looked upon as a contributor in 2017.
RHP Chris Flexen
2016 MiLB Stats: 10-9, 3.56 ERA, 25 G, 25 GS, 134.0 IP, 1.313 WHIP, 6.4 K/9
MMN’s 20th ranked prospect was added to the 40 man roster this past offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. He is a year and a half removed from Tommy John surgery, and he started to get stronger in the second half of last season. Flexen was sitting in the mid 90s with the ability to ramp up his fastball into the high 90s. He has a promising curveball with a sharp late bite. He needs to refine both his mechanics and his change-up. However, it is not likely Flexen has the same Double A to the majors path Robert Gsellman had last year as Flexen isn’t as polished as Gsellman, doesn’t have as good of stuff, and he is coming off knee surgery to remove a bone chip from his knee.
Other names that will certainly be asked about, but ultimately will be non-factors in the Mets rotation this year are Marcos Molina and Justin Dunn. This is Molina’s first full season since Tommy John surgery, and it is not likely the Mets will push him from St. Lucie all the way to the majors. With Dunn, he does not have the same injury concerns, but again, it is unlikely the Mets push him to the major league rotation in his first season in the full season minor leagues.
Ultimately, when the time does arise that the Mets need a starter, it appears Montero will likely get the first shot with Gilmartin after him. Beyond that, the Mets will likely need to begin to make 40 man moves to either bring a Knapp onto the major league roster or add a veteran starter like Jake Peavy, who is still a free agent.
This is not the situation everyone thought the Mets would be in entering the season, but it is the one the Mets will likely be in at some point during the season. The Mets just need to hope someone emerges for them like Gsellman and Lugo did last year.
Steven Matz was dealing with elbow pain towards the end of Spring Training, and it landed him in the disabled list. He has subsequently been diagnosed with a strained flexor tendon leaving Matz to say, “I try to do all I can to stay healthy and stay on the field. Thankfully, it’s not anything more serious. So, I hope that I can come back and help the team when I’m ready but there’s nothing I can do I feel like.” (Marc Carig, Newsday).
Seth Lugo struggled in the World Baseball Classic Championship Game and when he returned to the Mets in Spring Training. The struggles were blamed on a dead arm that, like Matz, landed him in the disabled list. He was sent for an MRI yesterday. After the Mets Opening Day win Mets manager Terry Collins would say, “We lost Seth Lugo today for a period of time, so we know how important it is to keep our pitchers healthy.” (Laura Albanese, Newsday).
And just like that the vaunted Mets pitching depth of seven starters is now down to five . . . a fragile five.
The injuries have forced Zack Wheeler into the rotation ahead of schedule. With his missing two full seasons due to Tommy John surgery, the Mets wanted to limit him to around 125 innings. That’s going to be extremely difficult when he’s in the Opening Day rotation, and the Mets currently go only five starters deep.
In front of Wheeler in the rotation is Matt Harvey. In 2015, he was terrific after returning from his own Tommy John surgery. He wasn’t able to take the next step as expected in 2016 as he was dealing with the effects of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (TOS).
Harvey had the season ending surgery to alleviate the effects of his TOS, but so far he hasn’t rebounded as well as he did from Tommy John. Harvey has been inconsistent with his velocity and location during Spring Training. For his part, Harvey believes he turned a corner saying, “It definitely took a little while, but moving in the right direction.” (James Wagner, New York Times).
While Jacob deGrom appears back to his 2015 Cy Young caliber form, he is coming off an injury plagued season. First, it was the oblique. Then it was a nerve issue in his pitching elbow which required season ending surgery.
This leaves Noah Syndergaard and Robert Gsellman as potentially the Mets only truly healthy starters entering the season.
The issue with Gsellman is he’s a rookie with only 44.2 major league innings under his belt. For that matter, he only has 93.1 innings above Double A. It’s possible he hits a rookie wall, or he needs to have his innings limited this year.
So, to that end, the only pitcher left you feel 100% confident about this year is Syndergaard . . . and he was forced to leave his Opening Day start due to a blister. His next start has already been pushed back a day. Considering the Mets health history, it’s hard to be confident that’s all it will be.
With that, the Mets vaunted pitching rotation depth has already been tested. With one more injury or one prolonged slump, the Mets may be forced to turn to Rafael Montero which hasn’t turned too well in the past.
In the event Montero or someone else takes the mound, we all may soon realize the Mets deep seven man pitching staff just might’ve been one or two starters short.
For a Mets team that brought in no new players this offseason, it is quite fitting this team picked right up where they left off last season. For those that forgot, and how could you, Noah Syndergaard was dominant, and the Mets couldn’t get that big hit off the other team’s ace.
Today, Syndergaard was dominant. His final line was six innings, five hits, no runs, none earned, no walks, and seven strikeouts. Basically, he was just as dominant as he was in his last game only he pitched one less inning. He pitched one less inning as he had to depart with a blister on his pitching thumb. Again, the Mets are picking up where they left off last year.
Overall, Syndergaard was up to his old tricks. Fastballs at 99 MPH. Change-ups and sliders between 90 – 94 MPH. Hitters frustrated and overmatched. The real surprise is that he had to get out of two separate jams. In the fourth, he worked around a one out triple off the bat of Freddie Freeman (ball was played terribly by Jay Bruce in right) by striking out Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis.
In the sixth, Syndergaard had runners at the corners with one out. Again, he struck out Kemp by keeping the ball low in the zone. He then induced a harmless fly ball off the bat of Markakis to end the inning.
Offensively, the Mets struggled against Julio Teheran. While Teheran was 7-10 last year, he is a terrific pitcher whose record really was hindered by a lack of run support. In addition to the 7-10 record, Teheran had a 3.21 ERA, 1.053 WHIP, 129 ERA+, and an 8.0 K/9. Against the Mets last year, he was 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA, 0.600 WHIP, and a 5.4 K/9 in four starts. Struggling against him is certainly no red flag.
And yet, if you are a pessimistic Mets fan, you saw some troubling signs. The team did rack up six strikeouts in six innings. There were seven left on base, and the team was 0-3 with RISP. The main culprit there was Lucas Duda who twice came up with a chance to knock in a run and both times he came up short.
With Syndergaard leaving with a blister and Teheran leaving due to his pitch count, the game became a battle of the bullpens. Fortunately, the Mets, even without the suspended Jeurys Familia have a terrific bullpen. Hansel Robles added a slight hesitation in his delivery to go with the quick pitch, and he mowed down the Braves in the seventh.
The deja vu would end in the seventh. With Ian Krol allowing a lead-off hit to Rene Rivera, Wilmer Flores hit into a fielder’s choice, and he stole second off Tyler Flowers. After Jose Reyes walked, Asdrubal Cabrera lined a single up the middle, and Flores was sent home. Center fielder Ender Inciarte nailed Flores at the plate.
Or did he?
https://twitter.com/MLBReplays/status/848986918343725056
Upon replay, it shows Flores just got his foot in front of the tag from the way too far behind home plate Flowers. With that, the Mets got the lead and momentum. After Yoenis Cespedes walked to load the bases, Curtis Granderson hit a sacrifice fly off former Met Eric O’Flaherty to make it a 2-0 lead. He then walked Neil Walker and Jay Bruce back-to-back to force in a run to make it 3-0.
While Bruce had a misplay in right field, it was a very encouraging day for him. On the day, he had four good at-bats going 0-1 with three walks and an RBI. He looked more patient at the plate and more willing to take a walk. If he continues this for the full season, its going to be a huge year for him.
After the Bruce walk, Duda finally got a hit with runners in scoring position with a bases clearing double off of O’Flaherty.
The Dude delivers! Duda drives in 3 to extend our lead! https://t.co/AljU6eO0rH pic.twitter.com/vY4CTB9sBz
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 3, 2017
O’Flaherty’s work in the seventh inning was the most he has done to help the Mets than all he had done for them in 2015. His final line was 0.1 innings, one hit, two runs, two earned, three walks, and no strikeouts. For Mets fans, it was nice being on the other side of an O’Flaherty outing.
In the fateful seventh, the Mets sent 11 batters to the plate, and the team scored six runs on three hits, five walks, and a sacrifice fly. Basically, this Mets team featuring a number of smart veteran hitters feasted on a poor bullpen. With the six run seventh, Robles would be the winning pitcher.
Cabrera was easily the best Mets player on the day . . . well, Mets player not named Noah Syndergaard. He went 3-4 with an RBI and a stolen base. It was a refreshing change of pace from the Cabrera who seemingly went the first half of the 2016 season without a hit with RISP.
Cabreras wasn’t the only one in midseason form. Gary, Keith, and Ron were great today including them honoring the late Bill Webb. Keith Hernandez told a terrific story about how Webb used to get Keith fined $100 by filming him smoking in the first base tunnel. Keith deadpanned about how all Mets fans knew he used to smoke.
Overall, this was about as good a start to the 2017 season as you reasonably could have asked for. While you were obviously concerned about Syndergaard leaving the game with a blister, you had to be encouraged by Robert Gsellman entering the game in the ninth because Gsellman would be the guy to start in Syndergaard’s place should there be an issue serious enough to cause him to need to miss a start.
After Gsellman’s scoreless ninth, the Mets are 1-0 and in first place where we expect them to be after Game 162. The win also improves the team’s MLB best Opening Day record, which is now 35-21.
Game Notes: Mets fans complain about d’Arnaud, but Flowers is much worse. Both Cabrera and Flores were able to steal bases off of him. In his first Opening Day with the Mets since 2011, Jose Reyes was 0-3 with a run, walk, and two strikeouts. Reyes also became the first Met since Ty Wigginton to be the Mets Opening Day third baseman other than David Wright. Travis d’Arnaud entered the game in the sixth inning as a pinch runner for Rivera. This marks the first season without Bill Webb as director of the Mets games.