Yoenis Cespedes
Yesterday, there was a lot of uproar over Fred Wilpon’s statements regarding the Mets chances to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes:
Fred Wilpon, on whether #Mets will sign Cespedes: "Your guess is as good as mine. I'm sticking with what Sandy said."
— Ken Davidoff (@KenDavidoff) January 20, 2016
You can read this anyway you want. Personally, I take this to mean that Fred Wilpon is in semi-retirement and/or focusing his attention on the other Wilpon businesses. Right now, it appears that the Mets are now truly Jeff Wilpon’s toy. It’s what the Wilpons always intended.
In 2000, Andrew Rice reported on the strife between the Wilpons and the Doubledays. Part of the story was how Doubleday no longer wanted to be partners with the Mets, and how he wanted out. The Wilpons blocked any attempt for Doubleday to broker a deal that would threaten Jeff’s ability to run the team
Last year [1999], Mr. Doubleday was ready to sell 80 percent of the team to Cablevision for $400 million – a deal that could have shielded his children, who are uninvolved in Mets affairs, from huge estate taxes. But Mr. Wilpon scuttled the deal, out of concern that, as a minority partner once again, there would be no assurance that he would still run the team. Jeff Wilpon, who is closely involved with the day-to-day planning for the new stadium, is said to be eager to take over the team one day.
[emphasis added]
Well, that time has come. Jeff Wilpon now appears to be in charge of the Mets. He’s the one appearing at Hall of Fame press conferences, the one who does not make himself available for reporters’ questions, and the one attending Winter Meetings, and the one showing up in the clubhouse for team celebrations. He’s taken over the team.
Jeff’s time at the top had been eventful and unchecked so far. Anything is possible from here on out. With Jeff firing pregnant women, taking out massive loans, and getting rid of disabled people without so much as a peep from Major League Baseball, nothing will surprise me. So far, no one has spoken out or corrected Jeff Wilpon for his actions. Jeff is running this team unfettered.
So no, I’m not surprised Fred Wilpon doesn’t know what’s going on with Cespedes because Jeff is in charge now.
Right now, there are two people who are realistically standing in the way of Yoenis Cespedes returning to the Mets. No, it’s not Fred and Jeff Wilpon. It’s Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson.
Like it or not, Sandy Alderson was right when he said Cespedes isn’t a centerfielder. While Cespedes grades out as an elite leftfielder, he’s just not good in center. Last year, he had a -3.2 UZR and -4 DRS while playing center. For his career, his UZR in center is -12.6, and his DRS there is -17. While the Mets were willing to move him in and out of center to take advantage of platoon splits for Juan Lagares while not forcing Conforto to face lefties. While it was rough at times, it did seem to work.
However, that was over the course of three months. Cespedes’ defensive numbers in center are unsustainable over a full season. I don’t buy the argument he only needs to play there two years. He’s already established he shouldn’t be playing there now. No, if the Mets want to re-sign him, he needs to go either left or right. That begs the question, why haven’t the Mets made room for him?
Specifically, I’m asking why the Mets haven’t explored trading Granderson. Last year, Granderson hit .259/.364/.457 with 26 homers and 70 RBI from the leadoff spot. He was a finalist for the Gold Glove in rightfield. On a team where everyone was dropping like flies, he played 157 games, and really, he was the only credible major league bat in the lineup for far too long stretches of time. His 5.1 WAR ranked him as a top five rightfielder in all of baseball last year. He has a reasonable two years $31 million remaining on his contract. One way of looking at this is saying he’s too valuable to be traded.
Another is to say he’s at his peak value, which is the precise time you want to trade players. Granderson is a year removed from a .237/.326/.338 campaign. The year before that he hit .229/.317/.407. He had pronounced splits last year hitting .183/.273/.286 against lefties and .280/.388/.504 against righties. His 5.1 WAR last year was the highest it had been since 2011. He’s going to be 35 on Opening Day next year.
Right now, the Mets still project to have Eric Campbell make the Opening Day roster until they sign another 1B/OF. The Mets still talk about adding another reliever. Their farm system took a big hit last year. Couldn’t trading Granderson address one, two, or all three of these needs? Isn’t that what smart front offices do? Don’t they trade away a player a year too early rather than a year too late?
Also keep in mind,this is a heavy left-hand hitting team. Trading Granderson and re-signing Cespedes would balance that out a bit. Isn’t this something worth exploring?
Personally, I’d like to see the Mets keep Granderson. I’m a big fan of his on and off the field. With that said, trading Granderson now may be the right thing to do. His value won’t be any higher, and the Mets have some needs to address. The Mets do not want to be paying for Granderson during his possible decline.
It might be time to trade Granderson.
Editor’s Note: this article first appeared on metsmerizedonline.com
Overall, it’s apparent that the Mets do not see Yoenis Cespedes as a part of their 2015 plans. They’ve gone in another direction to address their offseason needs. While it’s rumored the Mets have a 2-3 year offer out to Cespedes, it’s apparent he’s not taking it. The Mets could increase that offer to sign Cespedes, but they do not seem inclined to do it. Well it seems the Mets resolve is going to be tested.
As Ken Rosenthal reports, the Nationals are pursuing Cespedes. Apparently, Cespedes is the Nationals next option after they missed out on Jason Heyward and Justin Upton. They are still interested even after trading for Ben Revere. The Nationals have made Cespedes an offer that’s less than the six year $132.75 million deal Upton received.
If Cespedes joins Daniel Murphy in Washington, there’s going to be a riot amongst the fan base. The backlash is going to be very ugly. Signing Cespedes could theoretically tip the scales in the Nationals favor with them now being favorites to win the NL East. With all that said, the Mets have to stay the course.
Alderson believes Cespedes is a square peg in a round hole. Essentially, he doesn’t see Cespedes as a centerfielder, and he’s right. What you’re willing to put up with for three months may not be what you will put up for a full season, let alone for three to five years.
If you truly believe Cespedes isn’t worth a four year deal, and he can’t play CF, you have to pass. You pass even if it means he goes to your biggest threat in the division. If you think Cespedes is not a CF, and you think he will be a problem if he receives a contract longer than three years, who better than your biggest competition to make that mistake?
Most Mets fans will not agree with this decision. At the end of the day, that’s not Sandy Alderson’s main concern. His concern is to build a winner in 2016 and beyond. There may be mitigating factors, but at the end of the day, you try to make things work that fit into your parameters. If they stray from that, you need to walk away. Unfortunately, it seems like when the Mets walk away again, their #3 and #4 hitters will play in Washington.
The Mets need to ignore that fact and move on. They need to not care where Cespedes winds up. They need to do what is best for this team. They need to spend more money in other areas to improve the team in other ways.
Ultimately, the Mets are just going to have to stay the course.
Fans are clamoring for Yoenis Cespedes. They want him. They need him. Here’s the problem. What’s the corresponding move?
When the Cubs signed Ben Zobrist, they were prepared. They had a deal worked out for Starlin Castro to go to the Yankees. Having the deal in place helped prevent the market from suppressing Castro’s value because the Cubs would’ve had to trade Castro. If the Mets want to sign Cespedes, they’re going to have to do the same thing.
Right now, the Mets have Michael Conforto in left, Juan Lagares and Alejandro De Aza platooning in center, and Curtis Granderson in right. If you sign Cespedes, something’s gotta give. Let’s start with the obvious. You’re not moving Conforto. Also, with the Mets signing De Aza cannot be traded until June 15th. That leaves Granderson and Lagares. Which one do you move? It’s a matter of selling low on Lagares or selling high on Granderson.
If you trade Lagares, you’re trading an elite defensive player. He was a 5.5 WAR player and a Gold Glover just in 2014. He had a down year in 2015. We don’t know how much of it had to do with his elbow injury, but he fell off the map defensively. He went from an 18.6 UZR to a 3.5. Basically, he went from a Gold Glover to merely above average. If Lagares isn’t elite defensively, he’s not an everyday player.
I still think Lagares has value. He had a terrific postseason hitting .348/.375/.435. He performed well in Winter League action this, even if he showed platoon splits. He’s still just 26 years old. The hope is he rebuilds his value. If he does, and you sell low, you’re going to regret it.
The other choice is Granderson, who may be at the apex of his value. Last year he hit .259/.364/.457. He was a dynamic leadoff hitter. For long stretches of the season, he was the only legitimate hitter in the lineup holding things together. He was a Gold Glove finalist. He was the best position player on the Mets last year. He then followed it up with a great postseason. He hit three World Series homeruns. He’s a great fit for a win-now team like the Mets.
However, he is turning 35 before the start of the next season. He’s a year removed from a .237/.326/.388 season. He just had surgery on a torn ligament in his thumb. There are risks relying upon his production for next year.
The last option would be to keep everyone. That is a monumental task for Terry Collins. You have to keep Lagares and De Aza happy with even more limited at bats. You have to hold off on the temptation of benching Conforto for stretches if he struggles or goes into a prolonged slump. There’s an issue of relying on Wilmer Flores too much. Remember, he hit .263/.295/.408 last year. The Mets still need a 1B/OF option.
Putting aside the issues it would create, Cespedes is a good player who could help the Mets. The fans want him. The issue then becomes who do the fans want to jettison?
There are real and legitimate reasons for the Mets not re-signing Yoenis Cespedes. Advanced stats like UZR and DRS suggest he’s a poor defensive centerfielder. Despite his hot streak with the Mets, he still only has a career .319 OBP. Also, you can knock the Mets finances all you want, but is a 30 year old outfielder worth a long term deal? Those deals typically end badly.
Well with Cespedes still unsigned, and the fans still clamoring for him, the Mets decided to offer some more reasons. As John Harper reported in his New York Daily News article, the Mets had other issues with Cespedes, which included:
- He marches to his own drumbeat;
- He refuses to take batting practice;
- He doesn’t hustle;
- He smokes during games; and
- He will be a headache if he receives a long-term deal.
I’m not going to say any of these reasons are incorrect. I’ve never seen Cespedes take batting practice. We saw him miss player introductions at Citi Field during the World Series. I’ve yet to see him go to first base when he struck out on a ball in the dirt. He was lacksadasical running down a routine flyball leading to the infamous inside-the-park homerun to open the World Series. Better yet, he didn’t even run after the ball once it got by him. So yes, I believe the Mets on all of these fronts.
However, why are you telling this to us now? I never heard of the batting practice issue in August. Apparently, there was no issue with smoking in September. Why are the Mets smearing Cespedes now?
If it’s to change the public opinions of Mets fans on him, it’s misguided. If it’s to distract about how the Mets aren’t spending, it’s not working. If it’s to drive down his market to put him within their range, it’s not happening. So again, what did leaking all this information to the New York Daily News accomplish?
To me, all it accomplished was making the Mets seem small and petty. This guy was a good player for your team for three months. He was a fan favorite. He was a thrill a minute. For all of that, the Mets just spat in his face and kicked him out the back door. They did it even when everyone knew the Mets had zero intention of re-signing him. At the end of the day, there was no need for it.
Cespedes deserved to be treated better.
Editor’s Note: a version of this article also ran on metsmezmerizedonline.com
From what I gather from reading incorrect interpretations of the book, I take many people did not actually read Moneyball. If you haven’t, you should go and read it. If you have, now is the time to re-read it.
The reason to re-read it now is the script for the Mets postseason lies within those pages. I know Sandy Alderson was no longer the A’s GM at the time; it was Billy Beane. However, remember Beane’s top two lieutenants were J.P. Riccardi and Paul DePodesta. Until recently, they were Alderson’s top lieutenants. They were at least in place when the Mets were creating their offseason plans.
One of the many aspects of the book, which the movie seemed to get purposefully wrong, was how the A’s went about replacing Jason Giambi and one-year rental Johnny Damon. In essence, the A’s determined they flat out didn’t have enough money to replace these guys with other high priced players. Instead, the A’s were going to have to replace their production using a different line of thinking. I’m summing up here and being a little over simplistic, but here was the thought process:
- The team needed to identify what was undervalued on the free agent market (OBP);
- They needed the cumulation of their entire roster to replace Giambi and Damon since they couldn’t just sign two big name free agents to do it; and
- They needed to do it as cheaply as possible.
So what did they do? Well we know the Scott Hatteberg story with him being moved to first due to his traditionally high OBP (more on that later). In the movie and most other places, the story behind the David Justice acquisition is plain wrong. The A’s obtained him from the Mets, not the Yankees, in exchange for a LOOGY by the name of Mark Guthrie and a mistake waiting to happen by the name of Tyler Yates. It was the Mets, not the Yankees, who kicked in salary. It was only $1.2 million.
Now for the moves that haven’t received much fanfare. The A’s handed the secondbase job to a young Mark Ellis, who was capable of higher production than last year’s second baseman Frank Menechino. Menechino was moved to the bench to create a deeper roster. The A’s traded for Carlos Pena, who was a promising young player. Pena was supposed to be the first baseman with Hatteberg at DH and Justice in LF. That’s the way it was up until the trade deadline. They also traded for Billy Koch to sure up the closer’s role for the departed Jason Isringhausen.
By design, the A’s replaced Giambi and Damon not only with Pena and Justice, but by also improving their DH spot (Olmedo Saenz and Jeremy Giambi) and secondbase. In essence, the A’s added three new starters putting their old starters on the bench. The A’s left some payroll flexibility and had assets for the trade deadline.
The A’s used Pena in a three way trade to acquire Ted Lilly to sure up the rotation behind their three young big pitchers. They then used a prospect to acquire Ray Durham to DH with some needed cash. Hatteberg moved to be the full time first baseman. And yes, like in the movie, the A’s also added Ricardo Rincon to be the LOOGY to sure up the bullpen.
Did it work? If you look at the record, it absolutely did. They went from a 102 win team to a 103 win team. However, the reason wasn’t Hatteberg or Rincon. No, the part we forget is Barry Zito won the Cy Young, and Miguel Tejada win the MVP. They were powered by an insane 20 game winning streak. Lost in that streak was the A’s played only one team over .500 and played two teams that lost over 100 games that year.
The 2002 A’s got top notch performances from their top guys, and they made sure to beat the teams they were supposed to beat. Make no mistake. The 2002 A’s were worse. They scored 84 less runs and allowed nine more runs. However, at the end of the day, it didn’t matter. They won one more game.
The Mets are in a similar position as the A’s were. Make no mistake about it, the Mets have limited funds. With those funds, they needed to go out and replace the production of Daniel Murphy and a half a season of Yoenis Cespedes. Last year, Murphy hit .281/.322/.449 with 14 homers and 73 RBI. Cespedes hit .287/.337/.604 with 17 homers and 44 RBI in his time with the Mets.
We already know how the Mets replaced that production. They traded for Neil Walker, who hit .269/.328/.427 with 16 homers and 71 RBI. He’s a career .272/.338/.431 hitter. The Mets then decided to go with a platoon in center. There is in-house option Juan Lagares to hit against lefties. He hit .273/.333/.438 against lefties last year and .279/.325/.427 for his career. Platooning with him is Alejandro De Aza, who hit .278/.351/.448 against righties last year and .274/.338/.418 for his career. Now, this isn’t enough to replace the production of both of Murphy and Cespedes.
That’s where Asdrubal Cabrera comes in. Last year, Wilmer Flores played the bulk of time at shortstop hitting .263/.295/.408. Ruben Tejada played a lot there hitting .261/.338/.350. The Mets hoped by signing Cabrera they have significantly upgraded the position to cover the loss of Murphy and Cespedes. Cabrera hit .265/.315/.430 last year with the Rays. Speaking of replacing Cespedes’ second half production Cabrera hit .328/.372/.544 in the second half last year. Tangentially, the bench is theoretically better by having Flores and Tejada there.
Following the script they invented in Oakland, the Mets have already done what they believe they needed to do to replace the production they have lost. Right now, the Mets projected payroll is ~$106 million or about $4 million less than the 2015 payroll. Accordingly, the Mets are maintaining payroll flexibility like the A’s did so they can make trades at the deadline.
And, by the way, the Mets are powered by their three big young starters. How will it work out in 2016? We don’t know yet. However, if history is any lesson, the 2016 Mets will be worse than the 2015 version. If they want to have a better record, the 2016 Mets will need to take advantage of their games against bad teams like the Phillies and Braves. One of the young pitchers will have to step up even more. We’ll see which everyday player can step up to have the Tejada-like season.
At some point or another, we have all heard of the Five Stages of Grief, which are:
- Denial
- Anger
- Bargaining
- Depression
- Acceptance
Not to demean anyone’s grief, but this truly feels like what the Mets fans are currently going through with Yoenis Cespedes.
When the Mets first acquired Cespedes, there wasn’t any question whether the Mets could re-sign him. Cespedes had a quirky contract that forced the team he was on to negotiate a deal within five days. If the deal was not completed, he could not be re-signed by that team for basically another year or so. However, there were some events that changed that.
The first was Cespedes got hot. Not just hot; no, he was insanely hot. From August 12th – September 14th, he hit .323/.379/.805 with 17 homers and 37 RBI. He then waived the obstructive clause in his contract thereby allowing the Mets to sign him at any point in the offseason.
As the offseason began, the Mets fans entered the denial stage. Despite all evidence pointing to the contrary, Mets fans believed that Cespedes would return. The reports all said he would t return. Mets fans focused on the team having extra money from the postseason run, money freed up from Michael Cuddyer‘s retirement, and Cespedes’ own overtures that he wanted to come back to the Mets.
Then the Mets signed Alejandro De Aza to be the left-hand hitting platoon option for Juan Lagares in centerfield. At this point, the idea of Cespedes not returning to the Mets became more real, and the Mets fans responded angrily. They besieged every Mets tweet with a “Re-sign Cespedes” or something of that nature. They began to point out how the Mets have all that extra revenue from an extended postseason run, and they’re still not spending it.
With the Tigers signing Justin Upton, the Mets fans have entered the bargaining phase. With one less suitor for Cespedes, the Mets fans now believe Cespedes may take a shorter term deal from the Mets. Sure, they want the Mets to give him a long term deal, but they’re willing to accept that the Mets can re-sign him for a one to three year deal. The Mets can make it work with lots of opt outs.
This leaves Mets fans with two more stages: Depression and Acceptance. Depression will surely come as another team swoops in and signs Cespedes. They’ll be depressed thinking about Lagares and De Aza manning center while Cespedes is off bringing his unique skill set somewhere else. Finally, probably around Opening Day, Mets fans will see their team in action and accept the roster for what it is.
So while this offseason is almost over, Mets fans are really only halfway through the Five Stages of Cespedes. If only it were as fun as celebrating the holiday of Cespedes.
What I’ve found is most of the people that support the Yoenis Cespedes trade is he transformed the offense, and he was the reason the Mets won the NL East. Other people say while Cespedes was great with the Mets, there were other more important factors helping the Mets win the NL East. These arguments rest upon the Mets getting healthy and a weak August schedule.
I think the best way to look at this is just to present the facts. I’m presenting them unadulterated and without comment. Before presenting them, remember that Cespedes’ first game with the Mets was 8/1.
Pre-Cespedes Record: 53 – 51
Post-Cespedes Record: 37 – 21
In the same time frame, here is the Nationals record:
Pre-Cespedes Record: 54-47
Post-Cespedes Record: 29-32
Mets Opponents Combined Win Percentage and Mets Record by Month:
April Opponents .458 Mets 15-8
May Opponents .510 Mets 13-15
June Opponents .483 Mets 12-15
July Opponents .537 Mets 13-12
August Opponents .480 Mets 20-8
September/October Opponents .458 Mets 17-14
Here is the Mets and Nationals records and position in the standings at the end of every month:
April
Mets 15-8
Nats 10-13 (5.0 games back)
May
Nats 28-22
Mets 28-23 (0.5 games behind)
June
Nats 43-34
Mets 40-38 (3.5 games behind)
July
Nats 54-47
Mets 53-50 (2.0 games behind)
August
Mets 73-58
Nats 66-64 (6.5 games behind)
September/October
Mets 90-72
Nats 83-79 (7.0 games behind)
Overall, the Mets went from 2.0 games behind heading into August to 6.5 games up at the end of the month. As stated above the Mets record in August was 20-8 against opponents with a .480 winning percentage. The Nationals went 12-17 against opponents with a .490 winning percentage. Aside from the records, here is some additional information to consider:
Dates Key Players Came off the DL for good (by first game played after activation):
Travis d’Arnaud July 31st
Daniel Murphy June 30th
David Wright August 24th
Michael Cuddyer August 11th
Here are some other key dates from the 2015 season to consider:
July 24 – Michael Conforto called up from AA
July 24 – Mets trade for Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson
July 27th – Mets trade for Tyler Clippard
July 30 – John Mayberry, Jr. released
July 31 – Mets trade for Cespedes
August 1 – Cespedes plays first game with the Mets
Again, I’m making no comment on any of this information. It’s being presented to review it and process it. Upon reviewing the information, does your judgment on how Cespedes impacted the Mets change or remain the same?
For all of his faults as a centerfielder, Yoenis Cespedes is an incredibly gifted baseball player coming off of a career year at the relatively young age of 30. In 2015, he hit .291/.328/.542 with 35 homers and 105 RBI. He was the Gold Glove left fielder in the AL, and he set the world ablaze upon coming to the NL. Teams should be lining up to give him a big contract.
So far, they’re not. They’re also not lining up for Justin Upton, who at 27, is just entering his prime. His 162 game average is .271/.351/.473 with 26 homers and 84 RBI. Are we supposed to believe teams aren’t interested because he had a down year offensively while playing at Petco Park? Then there’s an established player like Dexter Fowler, who is a leadoff hitter and a centerfielder on a team that just won 97 games at went to the NLCS. These guys would make a great outfield from left to right.
Heck, you can surround them with a pretty good team. There’s Chris Davis at first, who’s 47 homers lead the AL. There’s Howie Kendrick at second, who’s a good glove and high average guy. The 2013 playoff hero, David Freese, mans the hit corner. Ian Desmond is the rare shortstop who averages around 20 homers a year. By the way, these are all Top 50 free agents who are all unsigned, and we’re 36 days away from pitchers and catchers.
It’s insane! In fact seven of the top 15 free agents remain unsigned. One that did sign was Alex Gordon. He signed a team friendly contract that has been described as a bargain. We’re now hearing questions whether three-time All Star Justin Upton will only seek a one year deal. The Mets, who once discussed a two to three year deal with Cespedes, is now thinking of offering him only a one year deal (of course they’re expecting him not to take it). This all sounds a little too much like Andre Dawson to me.
Due to the owner’s collusion back in 1987, Andre Dawson offered a blank check to get him out of Montreal. Did I just use the word collusion? Yes, I did. At what point does someone bring it up? There are simply too many big time free agents unsigned.
The offseason was somewhat slow to develop, and then we saw a lot of deals happening. The top players were receiving opt out clauses to the dismay of the Commissioner. After that, free agent signings came to a crawl. There are several top free agents left with the start of Spring Training a little more than a month away. The top free agent that did sign in Janusry signed a team friendly deal. Can we at least be suspicious? Doesn’t the Mets reducing their offer to Cespedes scream a little foul?
Better yet, doesn’t it make you yet again question the Mets jumping the gun signing Alejandro De Aza? With all these big time free agents, why wouldn’t you wait a little longer? Even if De Aza fills a real need, is it worth signing him and losing out on Cespedes or Fowler? Did the Mets just get a really bad read on this free agent market or is something else going on here?
I don’t know because none of this makes sense. Players in their prime putting up huge numbers are not supposed to be available now. Yet, here we are. These players are available, and they might be seeking team friendly deals like Gordon because the market seems to be suppressing their value. Whether that’s artificially or not is up for debate.
What is not up for debate is the fact that the Mets had a bad read on this market. As a result, they have De Aza, and they probably won’t have Cespedes. No one is coming to the Mets with an open check. Instead, they’ll go elsewhere on team friendly deals.
When assessing what’s left of this offseason, Sandy Alderson has given fair critiques on what remains. He has stated Yoenis Cespedes was a square peg for a round hole. In essence, Alderson was saying Cespedes’ bat doesn’t justify his poor defense.
Last year, Cespedes’ UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) in centerfield was -3.2, which is also his career average. UZR tells us he’s a below average centerfielder. DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) paints an uglier picture. Cespedes was a -17 in center last year, which is about as bad as it gets. His career average in his prior years in center is -4, which suggests he’s below average. Therefore, no matter what stat you want to use, Cespedes is a poor defensive centerfielder in a spacious Citi Field outfield.
Mets fans seem to feel differently because Cespedes hit extraordinarily well when he came to the Mets. When he was hitting like that you could justify his poor defense in a key defensive position. Problem is Cespedes just doesn’t hit like that. He’s a low OBP with good power (or potencia). He is a career .261/.319/.486 hitter. He is a career .236/.302/.491 hitter at Citi Field. I know I expected that to be a lot higher too. Thing is if Cespedes reverts back to these numbers, you can’t justify playing him in centerfield everyday.
Understandably, Mets fans remember him more for his insane hot streak. They overly correlate winning the division with Cespedes’ arrival. Some will dismiss the statistics and point to the eye test. With respect to the eye test, all I can say is Cespedes gave up not one, but two, Little League homeruns last year. How many centerfielders do that?
Overall, the Cespedes’ situation leaves me irritated. No, I’m not irritated because the Mets aren’t going to re-sign him. I’m irritated because of what they gave up to get him.
The Mets gave up Michael Fulmer for three months of Cespedes. At the time of the trade, the industry believed Fulmer was an unbelievable get for the Tigers. Yes, baseball people said the Tigers won the deal; not the Mets. Part of the reason might be the fact the Tigers most likely couldn’t re-sign him due to the language in his contract. Cespedes wouldn’t and most likely couldn’t re-sign with the Tigers, and they got Fulmer in the deal? It just wasn’t a good trade. The Tigers were the more desperate team, and the Mets still gave up too much value for a player they knew they weren’t going to re-sign.
Fulmer could be a potential ace. Last year in AA, he was the Eastern League Pitcher of the Year. He’s a guy who can get his fastball up to 97 MPH with a full repertoire. He can probably help a big league team in 2016. He will be bringing that talent to the Tigers instead of the Mets.
Usually, it’s at this point I hear how you have to give up something to get something. That’s fine, but that doesn’t change the fact the Mets have up too much for a player they had no intentions of re-signing. I’ll also hear how it was worth it because the Mets won the NL East and made the postseason. That’s a stretch considering the Nationals imploded, and the Mets won the division by seven games.
Furthermore, this trade ignores the John Smoltz trade. In 1987, the Tigers traded Smoltz to the Braves for Doyle Alexander. Alexander was terrific for the Tigers going 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA. He helped the Tigers win the AL East. I’m sure Tigers fans were elated. The problem is the Tigers didn’t win the World Series, and oh yeah, they traded away a future Hall of Famer. Do you think the Tigers and their fans would want a do-over on that trade?
Is Fulmer a Hall of Famer? We don’t know that yet. We don’t know if he’ll be an ineffective starter and have to go to the bullpen. The thing is his value as a potential ace was much higher than a rental.
Here’s what we do know:
- The Mets lost 15 pitchers over the last year;
- The Mets had to sign a fifth stater this offseason; and
- The Mets didn’t win the World Series.
That’s it in a nutshell. The Mets tout all this pitching depth, and yet they’re signing guys like Bartolo Colon because they didn’t have a fifth starter. Furthermore, the Mets don’t have a World Series title to show for losing all that pitching. In fact, they don’t even have a Cespedes. So while I agree with Sandy Alderson that Cespedes isn’t a centerfielder, I can’t agree with him giving up a potential ace to a desperate team for someone he saw as a square peg to a round hole.
Just like most Mets fans, I’m irritated over the Cespedes situation. However, I’m irritated because they gave up a lot to bring him to New York. I’m alright with them admitting he wasn’t a centerfielder. I just wish they realized that before sacrificing a part of their future. A part of their future that will come all the more important when the Mets may not have the money to re-sign any of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, or Noah Syndergaard.
When that times comes, what will you be thinking? Will you be thinking the three months of Cespedes was worth it, or will you be wondering about how the Mets really could’ve used Fulmer to cushion the blow? My bets on the latter.
Editor’s Note: this first ran on metsmerizedonline.com