Wilmer Flores
Today had the feeling of a death knell to the season. Noah Syndergaard couldn’t put batters away, had an early escalating pitch count, and he blew a 3-1 lead.
Furthermore, Asdrubal Cabrera had to leave with a knee injury in the first inning adding his name to the ever growing list of the year’s injured players.
The Mets then fell behind 4-3 as Jerry Blevins had a rare tough outing. Of course, part of that was the genius of Terry Collins walking Josh Thole-esque .239 hitting Tony Wolters to face Carlos Gonzalez, who hit the go-ahead sac fly. Right then and there, it looked like the Mets were going to get swept by the Rockies and fall 3.5 games behind the Marlins in the Wild Card race.
Then, there was finally a sense of life from a player who has seemed washed up for three months now:
Neil Walker, who has been hitting .235/.316/.343 since May 1st, hit a three run home run off Boone Logan to turn a sure fire 4-3 loss into a 6-3 win. The home run was reminiscent of Wilmer Flores‘ walk off home run that breathed life back into the Mets season.
It seems like Walker is breaking out of this slump at a time when the Mets desperately need it. During the four game set against the Rockies, Walker was 9-16 with a double, triple, homer, and four RBI. That includes today game with him going 3-4 with four RBI falling a double short of the cycle.
From there, Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia do what they do and preserved the 6-4 victory. For at least one day, the Mets season seems intact, and we can all dream the Mets can add a difference maker at the trade deadline.
Game Notes: Kelly Johnson came in for Cabrera. He played third, and Flores took over at short. Johnson and James Loney would score on the Walker home run.
Steven Matz deserved a much better fate. He danced in and out of trouble all night. Even with that balky elbow, he reached back and found something to make the pitch to get out of the inning. That was until the sixth inning.
Mark Reynolds hit a double to set up second and third with no outs. Now, Reynolds should have been out. Center fielder Michael Conforto fielded the ball cleanly off the wall and made a terrific one hop throw to Neil Walker well ahead of Reynolds. However, Walker had trouble catching the ball like he’s had trouble hitting since May 1st.
After David Dahl popped out, the Rockies sent up their eighth place hitter Nick Hundley. Instead of intentionally walking him and setting up the double play with the opposing pitcher Tyler Chatwood coming to the plate, the Mets decided to pitch to him.
Hundley would hit a ground ball past Wilmer Flores. Flores should have had it, but for whatever reason, when he plays third, he has fall down left, fall down right range, and in this instance, he didn’t fall down fast enough. It would be a 2-1 lead, which for the Mets lately seems insurmountable.
It wasted Matz’s gutsy performance. His final line would be six innings allowing 10 hits, two earned, one walk, and five strikeouts.
The only run support he received was a James Loney second inning solo shot. It was the first home run Chatwood allowed outside Coors Field this year.
Coming into the game, he was 5-0 with a 1.30 ERA and a 1.014 WHIP. Tonight it was more of the same with him going seven innings allowing only three hits, one earned, and four walks with four strikeouts. When Chatwood was on the mound, hitting with runners in scoring position wasn’t that big an issue as no one would get on base. Officially, the Mets were 0-3 with runners in scoring position against Chatwood.
You’d tip your cap to him, but you don’t know if he was great again, or if the offense is that bad. When he exited the game, he had a 3-1 lead after a Mark Reynolds seventh inning laser to left field off of Erik Goeddel.
Then there was a cruel sense of déjà vu. A day after Jake McGee couldn’t get anyone out, he couldn’t get anyone out today allowing back-to-back singles to Alejandro De Aza and Curtis Granderson. It was first and second with no outs, and the Rockies would go to Scott Oberg to bail them out. With him facing this inept Mets team, of course he did.
Travis d’Arnaud, Yoenis Cespedes, and Loney came up swinging at the first pitch. d’Arnaud was sawed off, and he grounded to third. Cespedes popped out to the first baseman. Loney weakly grounded into the shift. At that point, the game was effectively over.
In case anyone had any delusions of grandeur of the Mets coming back, Antonio Bastardo took care of that allowing a three run bomb to Carlos Gonzalez. At 3-1, the game was over. At 6-1, it felt like the Rockies were beating a dead offense with a stick.
There were two reasons to believe that the Mets were going to win today’s game against the Rockies. The first was that since July 10th, the Mets have alternated wins and losses, and the Mets lost last night. The second reason was that Jacob deGrom was taking the hill during a day game, and deGrom is the Dayman having gone 15-3 with a 1.63 ERA and a 0.923 WHIP in day games. In his last start, deGrom threw a complete game shut out.
With that in mind, you knew a Rockies team who played a night game was not going to do any damage against deGrom. They didn’t as deGrom pitched seven scoreless innings allowing just five hits and walk one while striking out six. Trevor Story was the only Rockies baserunner to reach second base, and no Rockies even reached third against him. Seemingly, the only reason deGrom was lifted from the game having thrown 97 pitches was to get some more offense.
The Mets were in need of it as well. The team didn’t have Jose Reyes and Yoenis Cespedes in the lineup due to injury. Michael Conforto was sitting because the Rockies were starting the left-hander Tyler Anderson. That meant Alejandro De Aza, and his extremely poor splits against lefties, was in the starting lineup. Furthermore, Rene Rivera was starting over Travis d’Arnaud. It was a weak lineup that featured the still struggling Neil Walker was batting cleanup. It should then come as no surprise that heading towards deGrom’s spot in the lineup in the seventh inning, the Mets were only up 1-0.
That run would be scored on a Rene Rivera two out RBI double scoring James Loney from first. Perhaps inspired how the Sid Bream-esque Loney was able to score from first, Rivera was thrown out trying to stretch a double into a triple. He made the ill-advised last out of an inning at third base. Even with that, he had a terrific day going 3-3 with two doubles and an RBI. It was Rivera who would leadoff the seventh inning with a single off Rockies reliever and former Rays teammate Jake McGee starting a curious chain of events.
De Aza followed Rivera’s single with a double to deep left-center field. That double would have scored anyone other than Rivera. Still, the Mets had runners at second and third with no outs. Terry Collins then made the bold choice of using Cespedes as a decoy. The Rockies took the bait walking Cespedes to load the bases. As Cespedes had a flare-up of his quad before the game preventing him from playing the field, he would be lifted for the pinch runner Steven Matz. It was a defendable position considering with his bone spurs there was no way Matz would ever pitch in this game, and he has decent speed. Furthermore, the Mets did not want to waste their bench any further. After Collins made two very good and defendable decisions, he began to make some baffling decisions.
The Rockies would bring in the right-handed reliever Scott Oberg into the game to pitch to Juan Lagares. Rather than keeping Lagares, his best defensive center fielder, in a tight 1-0 game, Collins went to his bench. Instead of going with Michael Conforto, the best hitter he had on the bench, Collins went to Kelly Johnson for some reason or other. At this point, the Mets struggles with runners in scoring position would really become magnified. Johnson would hit into a fielder’s choice with Story choosing to take the force out at home. Bases were still loaded, but now with one out. Granderson would chase a ball in the dirt to strike out putting it all on Wilmer Flores to come through. He didn’t. He hit a shallow popout to the center fielder Charlie Blackmon to end the inning. The Mets had bases loaded with no outs, and they still could not score.
The Mets were very fortunate they have an incredible bullpen that would hold onto this lead. Despite pregame overtures that Jeurys Familia would be unavailable for today’s game, Collins went to Addison Reed in the eighth. Reed would record two outs and would allow a single to DJ LeMahieu. Collins then lifted Reed for Jerry Blevins, who struck out Carlos Gonzalez to get out of the inning.
Familia would come on in the ninth on a day he was supposedly unavailable, and a day after he blew his first save in approximately one year. Of course, it wouldn’t be easy as it never is with the Mets. Story would hit a leadoff single, and he would steal second. Rivera was late on the throw, and it got through the infield. Familia would then walk David Dahl on a 3-2 count. Daniel Descalso was sent up there to lay down a sacrifice. With two strikes, he laid down a bunt spinning towards the line. Rivera let it go as it seemed as if it was going to go foul giving Familia the strikeout. Instead, the ball stopped dead on the line loading the bases with no outs.
It seemed like Familia would get out of it for a split second. He struck out Tony Wolters to get the first out. Then Cristhian Adames hit a ball that Loney just booted. The Mets weren’t going to turn two, but the Mets could’ve recorded at least one out. With that, Story would score the game tying run. With Blackmon at the plate, Familia spiked a ball at the edge of the grass that just ate up Rivera behind the plate. The wild pitch allowed Dahl to score the tying run. At that point, Familia intentionally walked Blackmon, and Collins lifted him from a game he shouldn’t have been used in the first place. Hansel Robles then came on and get the Mets out of the inning without any further damage. Maybe, just maybe, he should’ve pitched in the eighth or ninth rather than a tired Familia who Collins had declared was not available for this game.
When you peruse the official statistics for this game, you will see Familia blew the save and took the loss. That is true. However, it was a series of curious late inning decisions by Collins that really set the stage for this loss. It is quite fitting the very Kelly Johnson Collins had to bring into the game would make the final out in the ninth.
Game Notes: A night after going 3-3 with a walk, Walker was 3-4 on the day. It appears like his deep two and a half month slump might be coming to an end.
Lately, when the Mets have needed a pinch hitter or someone to double switch into a game, Terry Collins first choice off the bench has been Alejandro De Aza. What follows is much hand wringing and consternation from Mets fans. It leaves fans questioning why he didn’t go with Kelly Johnson or Wilmer Flores. They question whether Collins knows what he’s doing.
It turns out that Collins just might know what he’s doing.
Since June 30th, De Aza is hitting .286/.444/.429 with a homer and six RBI in 27 plate appearances stretch across 17 games. For sure, this is a small sample size, and it shouldn’t distract from the fact that De Aza has not been good all year. His .181/.258/.267 batting line will attest to that. However, what it is is a start for De Aza. It is him finally taking advantage of the opportunities Collins has given him. De Aza is back to being a useful player on the bench for the Mets.
It may not be that surprising. Looking over his career, De Aza is typically a slow starter, who usually begins playing better in June. However, given his relative lack of playing time, De Aza has found his stride later in the season than he usually does. If his career patters hold true, De Aza is bound to have a good finish to the season. In his career, the final month of the season is his best as he hits .274/.352/.425. That is his highest OBP and SLG in any month of the season for his career. Last year, De Aza hit .262/.388/.361 in the final month of the season for a San Francisco Giants team that was within striking distance of the National League West as the month began.
De Aza is back in a pennant race, and he is performing like it at a time when the Mets need him. Yoenis Cespedes‘ quad has left him hobbled, and it may require him to take the occasional day off. This has forced Michael Conforto into center field in order to keep his bat in the lineup. With that said, the Mets need to play musical chairs late in the game to get their best defensive outfield into the game, which usually requires the Mets holding back Juan Lagares. This means the team needs De Aza to step in as a pinch hitter, pinch runner, or a defensive replacement himself. As strange as it may sound after his terrible start, the Mets need De Aza now. Fortunately, he is finally producing.
For most of the year, Mets fans wanted De Aza off of the team, but Terry Collins and the Mets front office has stuck by him. It is starting to look like De Aza is starting to reward the Mets faith in him. They deserve credit for seeing through the early season struggles and allowing him to get back to form and put him in position to have a strong finish to the season like he typically does.
In April, Neil Walker hit .307/.337/.625 with nine homers and 19 RBI. From there, it has gotten progressively worse. Here are his monthly splits in the subsequent months:
- May .250/.333/.420 with four homers and six RBI
- June .214/.292/.274 with one homer and seven RBI
- July .155/.254/.259 with two homers and eight RBI
From May 1st on, Walker is hitting .213/.298/.326 with seven homers and 21 RBI. It has dropped his .307/.337/.625 hot April to .239/.308/.409 this season with six doubles, 16 homers, and 40 RBI. Overall, he has a 91 OPS+ and a 95 wRC+. Walker’s season stats aren’t good, and they’re even worse when you consider he has progressively gotten worse each month of the season. Each and every game he is on the field, he is out there hurting the team.
The only solace for the Mets is they gave up Jon Niese to get him. Niese has had an even worse year than Walker. In his 18 starts, Niese was 7-6 with a 5.13 ERA and a 1.574 WHIP. Like Walker, he wasn’t getting any better as the year progressed. Niese put up a horrific June that saw him go 1-4 with a 6.21 ERA and a 1.710 WHIP. Those numbers would be even worse had he not had a terrific outing against the Mets on June 7th that saw him pick up the win after pitching seven scoreless innings while allowing four hits and two walks while striking out two. Take that game out of the equation, and Niese would’ve been 0-4 with a 7.86 ERA and a 1.937 WHIP. These numbers were so ugly that the Pirates were all but forced to demote Niese to the bullpen where he has pitched effectively in his three appearances.
Like the Pirates, the Mets need to admit the trade was a mistake from their end and demote Walker. He needs to be put on the bench because he’s hurting the team on a day-in and day-out basis. In his stead, the Mets could go with a Wilmer Flores–Kelly Johnson platoon at second base. Since May 29th, Flores is hitting .283/.338/.534 with nine homers and 25 RBI in 44 games. On the season, he is hitting .316/.371/.667 with six homers and 13 RBI in 29 games against a lefty. Since coming to the Mets, Johnson has been hitting .317/.394/.524 with three homers and five RBI in the 31 games he has played since re-joining the Mets. Both Flores and Johnson have earned playing time, and they have both produced from May to the present.
Right now, the Mets are a half game back of the second Wild Card, and they are five games out in the division. The Mets were exploring the possibility of trading a good, young, cost-controlled catcher in Travis d’Arnaud to acquire Jonathan Lucroy in the hopes of improving their offense. It appears the Mets are now out on Lucroy, and they are going to need to make offensive improvements elsewhere. For now, it appears the biggest improvement they can make is removing Walker from the lineup in place of two players that are hitting.
For the past two days, it appears that is Terry Collins approach as he has sat Walker in favor of Johnson against Marlins starter Jose Urena, and he was going to sit against Cardinals starter Carlos Martinez before the rainout. This is a precipitous drop from where Walker was when the Mets obtained him in the offseason and a freefall from where Walker was in April.
Considering how poorly Walker and Niese have fared away from the teams that drafted them, maybe the Pirates and Mets should get together and undo that trade.
When the Mets brought back Jose Reyes, they were hoping his being back I his old haunts would bring out the best in him. It turns out the Mets theory was right, but the location was wrong. He just needed to go back to Marlins Park instead of Citi Field.
Right from the first at bat of the game, it was vintage Reyes. He led off with a double off Marlins starter Adam Conley. After stealing third, he would score on a Yoenis Cespedes sacrifice fly. Before Logan Verrett would throw a pitch, it was 1-0 Mets.
In the fourth, the Mets would rally with Travis d’Arnaud and Juan Lagares each getting a base hit. With two outs, it seemed like Conley was going to wriggle his way out of it until Reyes hit a chopper over the head of the third baseman Miguel Rojas scoring d’Arnaud to make it 2-0. With how well Verrett was pitching, it seemed like that would be enough.
Coming into tonight’s game, Verrett had only allowed one earned run against the Marlins in 13 innings. Heading into the sixth inning, that streak went to 18 innings. The streak ended there when Christian Yelich hit a game tying two run home run. He would be lifted for Hansel Robles, who would of course get out of the inning further unscathed. Verrett’s final line would be 5.1 innings, four hits, two earned, one walk, and three strikeouts.
Reyes would get back to work in the seventh with a leadoff single. He then went from first to third on a Curtis Granderson single. Reyes scored again on another Cespedes sacrifice fly. It gave the Mets a 3-2 lead, and it would give Robles his fifth win of the year after he pitched 1.2 scoreless innings.
James Loney provided some insurance runs with a two run ninth inning home run off Fernando Rodney to give the Mets a 5-2 lead. Loney had come on for defense for Wilmer Flores in the eighth. It turned out to be avoid move. With the Mets bullpen, that would be the final score.
Naturally, Addison Reed pitched a scoreless eighth, and Jeurys Familia would earn the save. It was his 34th straight save this season, and his 50th straight save dating back to last year. It was interesting as Cespedes lost one in the lights, and Familia walked Giancarlo Stanton to make it two on and no out. Familia struck out the next two before Martin Prado‘s RBI single making it 5-3. Adeiny Hechavarria would then ground out to end the game.
Overall, the story of the night was Reyes. On the night, he was 3-5 with two runs, a double, an RBI, and a stolen base. He was terrific in the field even atoning for a fourth inning throwing error by starting the 5-4-3 double play.
Game Notes: Even when Alejandro De Aza does something right, he falters. After drawing a walk, he was then thrown out trying to steal second. It should be noted at that time, Terry Collins had pretty much every left-handed batter at his disposal, and he still went with De Aza in a one run game.
Time and time again, we have all seen the Mets fail to get a base hit with a runner in scoring position. It should come as no surprise to anyone that the Mets woeful .207 team batting average with runners in scoring position is the worst in all of Major League Baseball. It is 53 points lower than the .260 league average and 89 points lower than the St. Louis Cardinals .296 team batting average with runners in scoring position. It gets worse. The Mets have a .288 team OPB with runners in scoring position, which is again the worst in the Major Leagues. This is 49 points lower than the league average .337 OBP with runners in scoring position, and it is 90 points lower than the St. Louis Cardinals league leading .378 team OBP with runners in scoring position.
At this point, what usually follows is a debate between traditional fans and fans that follow more of a stats based approach. Traditional fans believe hitting with runners in scoring position is a real skill set, and if a team is unable to hit with runners in scoring position, a team will be unable to score runs. Stat based fans will tell you hitting with runners in scoring position isn’t an actual skill, and like anything else, everything tends to regress to the mean. Regardless of your point-of-view, all fans tend to subscribe to the back of the baseball card concept wherein players tend to play to their seasonal averages on a year-in and year-out basis. With that common ground in mind, here are how the current Mets players have fared with runners in scoring position along with the amount of times they have come up this year with a runner in scoring position:
| Player | PA | 2016 | Career |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 70 | .180 | .256 |
| Eric Campbell | 19 | .125 | .168 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 70 | .254 | .301 |
| Michael Conforto | 56 | .250 | .256 |
| Travis d’Arnaud | 24 | .182 | .224 |
| Alejandro De Aza | 23 | .050 | .294 |
| Lucas Duda | 34 | .185 | .235 |
| Wilmer Flores | 41 | .297 | .270 |
| Curtis Granderson | 73 | .274 | .242 |
| Kelly Johnson | 50 | .214 | .261 |
| Ty Kelly | 10 | .111 | .111 |
| Juan Lagares | 21 | .158 | .271 |
| James Loney | 37 | .281 | .302 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 11 | .200 | .200 |
| Kevin Plawecki | 30 | .240 | .274 |
| Jose Reyes | 8 | .167 | .285 |
| Matt Reynolds | 12 | .250 | .250 |
| Rene Rivera | 31 | .259 | .235 |
| Neil Walker | 75 | .254 | .276 |
| David Wright | 38 | .226 | .293 |
* Kelly Johnson’s stats includes his 2016 stats from his 49 games with the Braves this year
While much of the ills of the season has been pinned on Campbell, Kelly, and Reynolds, the three of them have combine for only 41 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. To that end, another scapegoat, De Aza, has not hit whatsoever with runners in scoring position. These four batters have combined for 63 plate appearances which is still less than the plate appearances the either Cabrera, Cespedes, Granderson, or Walker have had individually this year.
Of that group, Granderson is the only batter who is hitting well with runners in scoring position. In fact, he is the only one who is hitting higher than his career average with runners in scoring position. Considering the fact that Cabrera has not gotten a hit with a runner in scoring position since April, it should be no surprise that he is the biggest culprit of the group.
The one encouraging sign is that most of these Mets players are underachieving with runners in scoring position. If these players finish the rest of the year producing at the rate they have done throughout their careers, this Mets team will start to score many more runs.
One thing that has become apparent with this Mets offense is they forgot there is an “S” in RISP because time and again runners find their way to second and third only to die. It was more of the same tonight.
The Mets were 0-7 with RISP. The team left seven runners on base in a game they lost 5-1. This includes, but is not limited to, the two runners left on base when Travis d’Arnaud hit into a 4-4-3 game ending double play. Coming into the night, he was hitting .190 with runners in scoring position.
This includes Neil Walker striking out in in a critical eighth inning spot where he came to the plate as the tying run. Coming into the game, he was hitting .258 with runners in scoring position. The fact that it is higher than his batting average tells you how his season has gone since April.
It includes Asdrubal Cabrera grounding into a double play killing a two on no out rally in the second with the score tied at zero. He’s now 0 for his last 28 with runners in scoring position.
The other Mets who failed to get a hit with runners in scoring position tonight were Juan Lagares (.167), Curtis Granderson (.150), Yoenis Cespedes (.259), and Jose Reyes. As usual, the Mets couldn’t score a run unless someone hit a homer. In fact, the only run the Mets scored on the night was a Wilmer Flores solo shot off Jon Lester in the seventh. Unfortunately, with the Mets not hitting with runners in scoring position, it was too little too late.
With the Mets struggles with runners in scoring position, the game was effectively over when Anthony Rizzo hit a three run third inning home run off Steven Matz. Matz’s final line would be five innings, eight hits, four earned, one walk, and five strikeouts. Again, he is not the same pitcher with the bone spurs as it is preventing him from incorporating his slider. Matz is now 0-7 in his last seven decisions.
Making things worse was a ball going through Cespedes’ wickets in the bottom of the eighth. Albert Amora hit a single to left that most likely would’ve scored Matt Szczur, who had previously hit a two out double off Erik Goeddel. Szczur could walk home easy after the ball went between Cespedes’ legs and continued all the way to the ivy. It should be noted, he had a good throw earlier in the game:
Yo.
Didn’t you see the cannon out there? https://t.co/CX7o1LF03W pic.twitter.com/3eQtONcAu3
— MLB GIFS (@MLBGIFs) July 19, 2016
Still, there were some positives to the game other than the Flores’ home run. Seth Lugo remains unscored upon in his young career after pitching another two scoreless innings. Michael Conforto made a pinch hitting appearance, and he had a well struck opposite field single.
Other than that, it was a lost night that leaves you scratching your head about the problems with runners in scoring position. You need to be concerned about Matz’s pitching. And while it is too early to be concerned, it should be noted the Mets fell to third place in the NL East to the Miami Marlins, who also have sole possession of the second Wild Card as of tonight.