Lucas Duda
It’s a process that began with Game 5 of the World Series.
In that game, I saw Terry Collins turn to noted steroid cheat, Bartolo Colon, when the Mets were down in extra innings. The Mets went to him even after he blew Game 1 of the World Series. Why turn to a younger, fresher, and overall better arm like Hansel Robles? No we go to Colon, who blew it again.
I processed the emotions of that loss, and I moved on. Then the Mets bring back Collins, the very same man who managed a horrendous World Series. They brought back Colon because, well, there was no good reason for that. Also, because Sandy Alderson is trying to replicate his late 80’s Oakland Athletics teams (i.e. steroid users), he added Antonio Bastardo to the bullpen mix. That was also after the Mets offered Jenrry Mejia a contract – if you’re not cheating, you’re not trying.
While the Mets made sure to keep their steroid cheats, they got rid of Daniel Murphy, who single-handedly carried the Mets this offseason. I guess if Murphy started a steroids cycle and hit 30 home runs last year, the Mets would’ve given him a legitimate contract.
Think about it. The Mets threw away Murphy, who led them to the World Series, and they kept Lucas Duda, who literally threw away the Mets chances of winning a World Series. If the Mets were really serious about winning, they would keep the players that helped them win, and they would’ve gotten rid of the streaky players that did nothing to help them win anything.
Furthermore, during the offseason, we had to see Matt Harvey flaunt his bedroom prowess on Bravo. We saw Noah Syndergaard take a victory lap at every New York stadium and arena after the Mets lost. He probably should’ve spent that time learning how not to lose a World Series or needlessly throw at batter’s heads.
Even better, the Mets released Ruben Tejada for no reason at all. Tejada was an integral part of this Mets team. It was his injury that galvanized the Mets. Even with a cane, he was able to help the Mets win the pennant. When the Mets released him, they not only got rid of their leader, they had no legitimate backup plan. Eric Campbell has no business being a baseball player, and Matt Reynolds is a complete bust. Seriously, just remember it was Omar Minaya’s players, not Sandy Alderson’s that won the pennant.
I got past all of that and more. However, this Spring Training was the final straw. This Mets team has gone 13 straight games without a win. It’s clear from all of this Spring Training, they’re not taking getting ready for the season seriously.
Well, if this team can’t take winning seriously, I can’t root for this team anymore. I still can’t root for another NL team, and I’ll never root for the Yankees. I’ll be honest. It’s hard to pick another team to root for. I’ve been a Mets fan all my life, and the vast majority of my family (including my Dad and brother) are Mets fans.
Right now, I’m leaning towards the White Sox. Their coaching staff is full of great former Mets like Robin Ventura, Joe McEwing, and Daryl Boston. They’re taking getting ready for this season seriously. They actually addressed their needs in the offseason, and they let Adam LaRoche know they will not let his son be a distraction.
I wish Mets fans the best of luck. It’s been 30 years since the last World Series. I’d like to tell you to hang in there; that’ll happen soon. However, I’ve seen two collapses, Carlos Beltran not swinging, and Mike Piazza fly out to deep center. I know it’ll never happen in my lifetime, especially not with this offseason.
Best of luck to you Mets fans. Go ChiSox!
Right now, the Mets have to pick between Eric Campbell and Matt Reynolds for the last spot on the bench. It seems that Terry Collins tipped his hand as to who he thinks will win this competition:
Terry may have tipped his hand today (not that it's a stunner). Said team can put Campbell in right field for Granderson vs. LHP.
— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) March 29, 2016
That’s right. Collins envisions Eric Campbell as part of his bench. He sees Campbell as someone who can allow Curtis Granderson to sit against tough lefties. It’s probable that Collins also sees Campbell as an option to get some time at first base to allow Lucas Duda to get a day off against a tough lefty. Given his history, Campbell can play the corner infield and outfield positions, second base, and in an emergency, shortstop and catcher.
If nothing else, Campbell is versatile. Unlike Wilmer Flores, Campbell has actually played a major league game at first base. Keep in mind no matter how good he has looked there, Flores has only played two Spring Training games at first base. Furthermore, Flores will be needed to backup second base and shortstop. More importantly, Flores is the main backup at third base. When no one knows how many games David Wright will be able to play in 2016, it’s imperative the Mets have a versatile backup.
Right now, that isn’t Matt Reynolds. In his minor league career, Reynolds has played 350 games at shortstop and 32 games at second base. He has no minor league experience at first, third, or the outfield. Therefore, as of right now, Campbell is the Mets best choice for the last man on the bench.
There are benefits to having Campbell on the bench. He’s a good pinch hitter hitting .293 with a .426 OBP. He gets big pinch hits. He doesn’t hurt you defensively at any position you put him. He’s also not going to complain when he’s not playing. He’s not going to disturb the clubhouse. Campbell knows he’s a bench player, and he’s just trying to do what he can to stick in the major leagues.
For right now, the Mets best option is to have Campbell start the year on the major league roster. Reynolds can go to AAA and learn other positions. Flores can focus on the middle infield and third. Campbell can continue to be a good pinch hitter who sparingly plays the corner infield and outfield positions when needed.
Terry Collins tipped his cap. He eluded that Campbell will make the team. It’s the right choice.
Going into the 2016 season, there was only thing missing from the roster – a backup first baseman.
However, fans were told to rest assured because there was a solution on their roster. The Mets were going to teach the position to Wilmer Flores. They were going to give a first baseman’s glove to their two catchers, Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki. This would not only allow the team to have additional options at first, but it would also allow them to find more at bats for their two young catchers over the course of a season. Opening Day is a little over a week away. Guess how many combined games these three players have played at first base this Spring?
One.
Just one. Flores finally played a game there, and he described the experience as “weird.” He was only there because Lucas Duda couldn’t play yesterday. It’s probable Flores will get one other game there. The chances the catchers will get a game there now are slim to none. It’s just one giant wasted opportunity.
Sure, the Mets had Flores workout with Keith Hernandez at first base this Spring. In that sense, the Mets didn’t waste the time they had this Spring. However, there is just no substitute for game experience. Worst yet, they just wasted opportunities to get Flores game action at first. Marc Krauss, who shouldn’t play one game with the 2016 Mets, has played 15 games this Spring.
With so much on Flores’ plate this Spring, this was bound to happen. He had to prepare to become the main backup at each and every infield position. He had to work to become a better, more patient hitter at the plate. With David Wright‘s back, he has to be as ready as possible to play third. With Asdrubal Cabrera‘s injury coupled with Ruben Tejada‘s release, Flores had to spend time being sure he was ready to play shortstop. First base just fell by the wayside.
This all means one of three things:
- Duda is going to play 162 games;
- The Mets are comfortable with Flores at first regardless of his lack of game time there; or
- Eric Campbell is going to make the Opening Day roster.
Each passing day, it appears more and more likely that Campbell will be on the Opening Day roster. He’s played 17 games this Spring. Unlike Flores, he has played multiple games at first. Despite fans’ opinion of him, the Mets organization is bullish on Campbell’s abilities as a versatile bench player.
So, it’s most likely that the Mets have always seen Campbell as the backup first baseman. It would be the most plausible explanation why the Mets failed to expose Flores to first base for the vast majority of Spring Training. Conversely, if Campbell isn’t going to make the roster, the Mets have wasted Spring Training with respect to their inability to give Flores game action at first.
The most likely result is Eric Campbell making the Opening Day roster.
Since Lucas Duda became the Mets everyday first baseman in 2014, he has been amongst the best first baseman in baseball. Beginning in 2014, Duda has amassed a 6.6 WAR, which is better than 21 of the players projected to open the season as their team’s Opening Day first baseman. Can you name those 21 players? Good luck!
Whether players like it or not, New York City has enacted a smokeless tobacco ban that will prevent them from using chewing tobacco at Citi Field and Yankee Stadium. As we see from the quotes, there are players like Lucas Duda, to whom it’ll have no effect. There are others who do use it. We don’t know what, if any, impact it will have on them.
At this point, no one knows how this will work or how it can be enforced. No one knows how effective it will be. Remember this is the same city that has banned smoking indoors for over a decade, and yet, everyone looks the other way when Yoenis Cespedes sneaks into the clubhouse to have a cigarette. This begs the question of why even bother doing it? These are grown men. No law is going to stop a player from using chewing tobacco. Most players who feel they need it to perform may do it anyway. So why do it?
The answer might be found in Curt Schilling‘s struggles with cancer as he describes in The Players’ Tribune. Schilling started at 16, and he could never stop. As a result, he faced a life or death struggle with mouth cancer. A fight he won; a fight others have lost.
Tony Gwynn died at the age of 54. He started dipping in rookie ball and couldn’t stop. He woke up, brushed his teeth, and then threw in a dip. He’d have a dip in his mouth the rest of the day. He dipped through every scare. He dipped right up until he had cancer.
These are the reasons for the laws. No one wants to see Curt Schilling go through this. This was a man who was unbeatable in October. He got sutures in his ankle just to pitch in the 2004 ALCS and World Series. During the biggest moments, he’s seemingly invincible. No one is invincible when it’s cancer. So whether we agree with the law or not, to a man, we can all agree that we hope it works. We hope it’ll stop people from starting. We hope it’ll get people to quit.
The problem is it won’t. Smokeless tobacco has been banned in the minor leagues since 1993. Despite this ban, minor leaguers come to the majors and use chewing tobacco. Whatever measures baseball has put in place has not stopped players from using it. So no, banning it will not reach the intended goal. Banning something rarely does.
Banning it hasn’t worked, and it won’t work now. Instead, what we have is an avenue for big leaguers to talk about their use and why preventing them from doing it is a bad thing. So in essence, this law is going to have the direct opposite effect of its intention, at least in the short term. Instead, everyone should be looking for real solutions to solve the problem.
Ask a Mets fan which team is going to represent the National League in the World Series, and you know what their answer will be. In a clubhouse full of confident guys like Matt Harvey, you know to a man the Mets believe they are returning to the World Series.
You know who agrees that the Mets will return to the World Series? Eric Hosmer. As Hosmer told Ebenezer Samuel of the New York Daily News:
You can definitely see the Mets being that team to get back on that stage and win on that stage. Not only did they get experience (from the World Series), but they’ve got guys who have established themselves as superstars in the game. I think the future is bright for those fans in New York.
Of course when talking about the reasons why the Mets can return to the World Series, Hosmer invokes the pitching staff, especially Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard. As Hosmer notes, “. . . the hardest thing is to be able to have the quality starting pitching and not only have the quality but to have the depth as well. They have it, and they will be more comfortable in the playoffs.”
What was surprising was in addition to the Mets starting pitching, Hosmer named Lucas Duda as a reason why the Mets could repeat as National League pennant winners. He didn’t name Yoenis Cespedes who electrified the Mets when he joined them after the trade deadline. He didn’t name Michael Conforto, who hit two home runs in a World Series game and who refused to make the last out of the World Series. He didn’t even name Curtis Granderson who hit three home runs in the World Series. He named Lucas Duda whose poor throw home in Game 5 allowed Hosmer to score the game tying run. Why him? Well according to Hosmer, we shouldn’t judge Duda based upon one throw:
The fact that it happened in the ninth inning magnified the situation more, but if you look at what Duda did, he was the one who got multiple RBI hits for them (that game) and got things going. I think that play, it’s a small sample size of what actually happened for him in the World Series.
Hosmer is right, and he should’ve taken it a step further. Duda has been terrific for two plus seasons now, and yet, there will always be a segment of the fan base that will judge him solely for that one throw.
In Duda’s first two full seasons as the Mets first baseman, he has hit .249/.350/.483 with 57 homers and 165 RBI. His OPS+ is 134, and he has a cumulative 6.6 WAR. In the NL East clincher, he hit the grand slam keynote address. He hit another grand slam in the fourth and deciding game of the NLCS. Overall, Duda is as good a first baseman as there is in baseball. He is a legitimate power threat in the middle of the Mets lineup. He gets on base to boot.
So yes, Hosmer is correct in pointing out that Duda is a big reason why the Mets can and will return to the World Series. Overall, between the Mets pitching and hitting from players like Duda, they are good bets to return to and win the World Series.
Last night, my son wanted to watch baseball. Fortunately, YouTube has about every game you could want to watch. For various reasons, I picked Game Three of the 2015 World Series.
What was interesting is that I never saw the telecast because I was at the game. It would not only be the first time I watched the game on TV, it would also be the first time I got to watch it with my son. From what my wife told me, he loved that game. It was great to watch it with him.
My favorite moment wasn’t him celebrating the David Wright or Curtis Granderson homeruns. It wasn’t even his the game inspired him to take out his teeball set. Surprisingly, it wasn’t even when he hit a line drive clear across the living room with him screaming “HOMERUN!” No, it was sinpler than that. It was when Lucas Duda came to bat.
My son looked up at the TV, waived and said, “Hi Duda!”
When I confirmed it was Duda by waving and saying hi to him as well, my son began saying hi to the players he remembered. At one point, I got him to scream:
I was impressed when he recognized Michael Conforto (his new favorite player) and told me he played leftfield. When I called over to my wife to let her know, her response was, “Of course he knows, you’ve been drilling it into his head.”
In any event, on what was a beautiful Spring-like day, I was never more prepared for baseball. My son is prepared too. Hopefully, he will get the chance to say, “Hi Duda” to him at Citi Field this year.
If you’ve read my blog, you know I love Lucas Duda. Lucas Duda began the seeds of my son becoming a Mets fan. Everytime Gary Cohen called out Duda’s name on TV, he would excitedly scream out, “Duda!” As he learned more and more about the sport, he knew Duda hit homeruns and played first base:
With that in mind, I became sensitive to the criticism levied upon Duda. Some of its fair, some of its unfair. All offseason, I’ve read negative comments about Duda on Twitter and on message boards. Overall, I come away with the impression that Mets fans either don’t like or don’t appreciate Lucas Duda. Reading Ken Davidoff‘s article in the New York Post, he apparently agrees with my characterization of how Mets fans see Duda:
I had just informed Duda that he is, in my opinion, the most over-hated, under-appreciated baseball player in New York.
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[I]n interactions with Mets fans, be they in person, via email or on Twitter, Duda frequently gets mentioned as if he’s a serious liability.
First off, we should get something clear. This is definitively not an attack on Mets fans. Davidoff is giving his impression of what fans believe based upon feedback he has received. Davidoff is in good position to do this because he has been a baseball writer in New York for quite a while. He has been a sports writer in New York since 1994. If you’ve read his columns, you will see he does engage with the fans by incorporating baseball trivia in his columns as suggested by fans. He’s active and responsive on Twitter. In short, it’s fair to say he has the pulse of the fans. His Duda column proves that out.
The two things that Davidoff raised was Duda’s streakiness and his defense. All summer when the Mets were struggling, that’s what was discussed. As for defense, we do not need to rehash the one throw that made this a topic of discussion for Mets fans all offseason. Unlike you or I, Davidoff, as a reporter, got to address these issues with Duda.
By the way, it should be noted that Davidoff focusing on these issues proves he has interacted with Mets fans. I digress.
When talking to Davidoff about these issues, I found Duda’s responses enlightening. He acknowledges his flaws, and he states that he is working on them. He also acknowledged that players do know what fans think of them whether or not they are on social media.
With that said, if you were truly blindsided by this article, and I don’t know how you could be, get out to Citi Field this year and shower Duda with praise. When he hits a cold streak, and you know he will, refrain from booing. Instead, cheer a little harder the next time his name is announced. Try to lift him up.
Personally, I love Lucas Duda for the player he is. After reading Davidoff’s column, I like Duda all the more.
I hope the article left the same impression on you. I hope it helped you appreciate Lucas Duda all the more, which was really the point of the article. If you came away with that impression, Davidoff did a great job. If you’re focused on his informed opinion that Mets fans don’t like Duda, please re-read his article because there is some great stuff in there showing why Duda is a terrific Met.
After the Mets make a decision at catcher, the team appears like they will have between $82 – $96 million to build a roster and re-sign their pitching.
Looking at the roster, the Mets will need to obtain starters at the following positions: 1B, 2B, SS, and RF. David Wright is scheduled to make $15 million, so whether or not you believe he will be able to stay at the position, he will remain with the team in some capacity. Michael Conforto should still be with the team as the leftfielder. Finally, unless the Mets can move him, Juan Lagares and his $9 million salary will be the team’s centerfielder. The Mets organization is fairly well stocked with position players right now, and they might be able to fill out the roster with cheap, cost-controlled talent.
First Base
Somewhat controversely, Keith Law named Dominic Smith the 29th best prospect in all of baseball. He’s the first baseman of the future.
Accordingly to the scouting reports, Smith is a good defensive first baseman that should be able to hit. The debate really is whether he will hit for power. Whether or not he hits for power, people see him as being able to field the position and be a good major league hitter.
With Lucas Duda being a free agent in 2018, the Mets will need Smith to be ready. If he’s not ready, the Mets will need a stopgap. In either event, by the time the Mets pitchers start to become free agents, Smith should be the first baseman earning around $500,000.
Second Base
We have to assume that one of these years Dilson Herrera is going to transition from second baseman of the future to the Mets second baseman. With Neil Walker only having one year until free agency, it appears that time will be 2017.
Right now, Herrera has less than one year’s service time. For all the supposed newfound depth, it’ll probably be Matt Reynolds getting called up to the Mets. That will preserve his service time. It means that in 2019, Herrera should be the second baseman, and he will have accrued two full years service time. Unless he gets enough playing time, it appears like he will avoid Super Two status meaning he will be in the same $500 – $600 thousand range as Smith.
Shortstop
As far as organizational depth, the Mets seemingly have an embarassment of riches with two high end shortstop prospects with Gavin Cecchini and Amed Rosario. They also have the aforementioned Reynolds.
Given Asdrubal Cabrera‘s contract, Cecchini and Rosario are going to have time to develop on the minors. At a minimum, Cabrera is signed to be the Mets shortstop through the 2017 season. If he produces well, or the prospects need another year, Cabrera has an option that could keep him with the Mets through the 2018 season.
As such, neither Cecchini or Rosario will be arbitration eligible at the time the Mets pitchers start to reach free agency. Accordingly, the Mets will only have to spend around $500 thousand when the pitchers begin to become free agents.
Left Field
It seems Michael Conforto is the leftfielder of the past (2015), present, and future. He very well should be too. Even if Conforto doesn’t improve upon his 162 game averages he achieved as a 22 year old, who never played above AA, you’re getting a good defensive outfielder who will hit .270/.335/.506 with 26 homers and 75 RBI.
Fortunately, Conforto will not have accrued enough service time to achieve Super Two status. Unfortunately, Conforto will most likely become arbitration eligible the same time that the Mets pitchers are reaching free agency.
Looking over the past few years, there isn’t really a good comparable to Conforto. It seems that when teams have good young corner outfielders, they lock them up. With that in mind, although an admittedly imperfect comparison, J.D. Martinez is instructive.
In 2014, Martinez was 26 years old, and he hit .325/.358/.553 with 23 homers and 76 RBI in 123 games. He became arbitration eligible after this season, and he agreed to $3 million. In 2015, he had another good year hitting .282/.344/.535 with 38 homeruns and 102 RBI. He and the Tigers avoided an arbitration hearing. Martinez’s contract extension bought out the remainder of his arbitration years he’s due to make $6.75 million in 2016 and $11.75 million in 2017.
While we may or may not agree on whether Martinez is a good comparable, it would be fair to say Conforto is at least capable of hitting .272/.344/.535 by his age 25 season, if not sooner. If that’s the case, it would be fair to suggest Conforto could earn anywhere from $3 – $6 million in his first year of eligibility.
Right Field
Curtis Granderson‘s contract will expire after the 2017 season. Since he will be 37 heading into the 2018 season, it’s hard to imagine he will be re-signed to be the everyday right fielder.
Now, Wuilmer Becerra projects to be an everyday player. Scouts believe he has the bat to play the corner outfield spot. The issue as far as the Mets are concerned is how quickly the 21 year old minor leaguer will need before fulfilling that promise. Last year, Becerra played his first year in full season A ball. That’s a long trek to the majors by 2019.
So unless Brandon Nimmo can handle the corner outfield offensively, which unfortunately seems unlikely, the Mets will have to look outside the organization to fill that void.
If Becerra is still a well regarded prospect, the Mets are likely to bring in a player on a one to two year deal. In retrospect, depending on how he finishes out his contract, Granderson could be coaxed back on a one-year deal ata much lower contract price.
As a placeholder, let’s presume the cost of a right fielder would cost about $15 million. That’s what Granderson is slated to earn the last year of his contract.
Cost of the Projected 2019 Starting Lineup
If everything breaks right for the Mets, they will have a group of young, cost-controlled position players at the time their starting pitchers hit the free agent market. If this pans out, the Mets everyday position players would cost about $46.5 million.
That’s roughly what the Mets are paying their current starting infield. In total, the 2016 Mets starting lineup is due to be paid roughly $90 million. Essentially, the Mets will be spending half the amount of money on their starting lineup in 2019 than they will this season.
Overall, this leaves the Mets between $35.5 – $49.5 million to build a bench, a bullpen, and to pay their starting rotation if the payroll remains stagnant at the $140 million range.
In 2014, the Royals were 90 feet away from scoring the tying run of the World Series. Even though most agreed Alex Gordon made the right decision stopping at third, his decision became a topic of discussion when Madison Bumgarner got Salvador Perez to foul out to end the World Series.
The game tying run was forever stranded at third.
Fast forward to the 2015 World Series.
With the exception of Game 2, the Mets had a late lead in each game. They got to that point despite the Mets starting pitching not having one truly great game. In fact, the Mets starting pitching had been somewhat disappointing. With that said, they pitched well enough to put the Mets in position to win four of the five games.
Then the pitching showed up in Game 5. Matt Harvey shut down the Royals much in the same way Bumgarner had shut down the Royals. Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard were ready to go for Games 6 & 7. Before the ninth inning, the Royals had a dejected look in the dugout. Even if they were up 3-1 in the series, they were in real trouble. The Mets great starting pitching had awoken.
In the fateful ninth inning, Eric Hosmer was on third base. He was 90 feet away. Then this happened:
Hosmer had no business running there. None. He was the last out of the game. However, when 90 feet separated you from a World Series championship the previous year.
Yes, we heard it was about the scouting reports on Duda. The Royals scouts said the team should test Duda’s arm when they got the chance. However, that’s not what really happened. Hosmer described it somewhat differently:
We think about [losing the World Series] often. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I think that’s kind of something we turn to mentally . . . . Everyone kind of relates to that and relates to how much that hurt.
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You’ve got to try to take a chance. With who was on the mound, Familia, hits are hard to come by, so, you know, you had to be aggressive. If it hadn’t worked out, I’d be answering some hard questions right now, but that’s the way we’ve been doing it all year. We’ve been taking chances, and found a way to get it done.
Hosmer admitted the end of the 2014 World Series impacted and drove the Royals throughout the 2015 season and World Series. The team was not going to let the tying run be stranded on third base. In 2015, the Royals strived to be more aggressive.
It’s now 2016, and now it’s the Mets turn to answer questions about why they lost the World Series. Naturally, one of the issues that arise is Lucas Duda’s throw:
Duda says the throw home in the World Series haunted him. Watched the play a few times on film. Still believes good throw gets him.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) February 18, 2016
In reality, Duda’s throw didn’t cost the Mets the World Series. Overall, it was their defense. You can pinpoint to problems in each and every game the Mets lost.
The Mets have to let this fuel them in 2016 much in the same way the Royals were fueled by the way they lost in the 2014 World Series. They need to use it to be better defensively, to pay better attention to detail in the field. If the Mets do this, they can do what the Royals did. They can return to the World Series.
And when they return chances are Lucas Duda makes that throw home helping thereby helping the Mets win the 2016 World Series.