Jeurys Familia
Every Mets fan was elated the Mets signed Yoenis Cespedes to a four year $110 million contract. With that contract on the heels of Neil Walker accepting the $17.2 million qualifying offer, it appeared as if the Mets were finally out from under the Madoff disaster, and they were ready to spend like the big market team they were. Turns out we were wrong . . . very wrong.
As the Winter Meetings come to a close, Sandy Alderson met with reporters, and he informed them that the Mets are not only done spending, they actually need to shed payroll before Opening Day.
That’s right. Alderson expects the Mets to be below $150 million before Opening Day. According to Spotrac, a payroll under $150 million would put the Mets in bottom half of payroll in the major leauges. Worse yet, reducing the payroll would actually mean the Mets 2017 payroll will be lower than the Mets year-end 2016 payroll. The payroll will be lower despite the Mets coming off back-to-back postseason appearances, the Mets having twice increased ticket prices, and attendance having gone up each year since 2013. With increased revenues, there is no reason for the Mets to reduce payroll.
Now, payroll isn’t everything. As we saw in 2015, it is possible to compete without having one of the top payrolls in the majors. Ultimately, it is not payroll that wins, it’s talent. Looking over the Mets major league roster, the team still does not have everything it needs to win in 2017.
First and foremost, the bullpen is in disarray. The Mets are likely to lose Jerry Blevins to free agency, and it is likely the team will lose Fernando Salas. Right there, the Mets need to obtain another LOOGY unless you believe Josh Edgin will suddenly find his lost velocity or Josh Smoker‘s entire career of reverse splits will suddenly reverse itself. Morevover, the Mets will need a seventh inning reliever, which is something the team has seemingly always needed in the Sandy Alderson Era. Further compounding the issue is the prospect of a lengthy Jeurys Familia suspension. With all those factors in mind, this team is 2-3 arms short in the bullpen.
Speaking of arms, it is questionable the Mets have enough starting pitching. Yes, the team does seem to have seven starters, but most of them carry question marks and/or innings restrictions. Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz are all coming off season ending surgeries. To ask them to make 30 innings and throw over 200 innings may be unrealistic. Both Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo helped pitch the Mets to the postseason last year, but they will likely be on innings restrictions in 2017 meaning if they are in the Opening Day rotation, they will likely need to be shut down by September. Finally, no one can reasonably expect anything from Zack Wheeler after he hasn’t pitched in over two years. With that in mind, the Mets could use a veteran starter who could eat up innings as the fifth starter, and also could serve as the long man in the bullpen once the Mets are ready to hand the reigns to a Gsellman, Lugo, or Wheeler.
The bench could probably use some help as well. Rene Rivera is a nice backup catcher, but he’s better suited on a team that has a catcher who is not as injury prone as Travis d’Arnaud. Arguably, the team could also use another bat for the bench, especially when you consider the battle for the final spot on the bench will be between Ty Kelly and T.J. Rivera. Given Kelly’s switch hitting ability, and Terry Collins‘ apparently fondness for him, it is likely Kelly will win that competition.
Overall, these are a lot of holes to fill. Arguably, being able to trade Bruce will fill one of them, but will it? If the Mets are indeed looking to slash payroll, how could the team take back salary in the deal? Even assuming the Mets can bring back salary in the deal, doesn’t that mean the team will be prevented from adding another player or two in free agency?
Ultimately, that’s the problem. The team’s needs are not likely going to be filled internally unless you believe Wheeler will be a dominant reliever, Sean Gilmartin will return to his 2015 form, Gabriel Ynoa will take a huge stride forward in his development, and Kelly starts improving at 28 years of age. It is nice to hope this will all work out, but as history tells us, it is rare that everything breaks right for a team in one year. No, the gaps will have to be filled by acquiring players, which will cost money.
Unfortunately, the Mets once again seem out of money. It’s getting old, and sooner or later, it is going to cost the Mets a chance at the postseason as it nearly did last year. When the team is raising ticket prices and the fans are still coming to the ballpark, that isn’t alright. It’s about time the Mets start spending to at least address their needs in the offseason.
With the Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox setting baseball’s hot stove fully ablaze with a blockbuster with the Red Sox obtaining Chris Sale in exchange for uber prospects in Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. With this trade, the White Sox have unofficially announced they are rebuilding and are now willing to trade away every piece of value.
What is surprising is that a White Sox team that was under .500 last season actually has a number of good pieces. In fact, they have a number of pieces that would be quite enticing for the New York Mets.
For starters, the White Sox have David Robertson. Robertson is enticing not just because he is a good closer, and the Mets face the possibility of losing Jeurys Familia to a lengthy suspension in 2017. He is also enticing because he pitched very well for Yankees, and has pitched well for the Yankees in the postseason too. A pitcher who can pitch well in pressure situations in New York should always be of interest to the Mets.
The White Sox also have a very good left-handed reliever in Dan Jennings. In 2016, left-handed batters only hit .217/.316/.337 off of him. Overall, Jennings was 4-3 with a 2.08 ERA in 64 appearances. He’s even more attractive as a trade target when you consider he’s under team control until 2020.
Perhaps the most impressive reliever in the White Sox bullpen last year was Nate Jones. Jones made 71 appearances in 2016 going 5-3 with a 2.29 ERA, 0.892 WHIP, and a 10.2 K/9. He is a sinker/slider pitcher that can throw the ball over 97 MPH that would thrive in the Mets organization. He has a reasonable contract going forward with provisions in the deal that protects his team against arm injuries. Overall, he will make $3.95 million in 2017, and he is under contract until 2021.
Offensively speaking, the White Sox have Adam Eaton who is a career .384/.357/.428 hitter who has averaged 28 doubles, nine triples, 10 homers, 50 RBI, and 16 stolen bases a season in his three years as an everyday player. At 27, he is coming off his best offensive season where he hit .284/.362/.428 with 29 doubles, nine triples, 14 homers, 59 RBI, and 14 stolen bases.
In the field, it has been a mixed bag for Eaton. He has averaged a 0 DRS and a -4.7 UZR in center. Best case scenario is he is an average center fielder. More likely, he is below average at the position. Eaton will make $4 million next season, and he has an additional two years $14.4 remaining on his contract. There are reasonable team options for $9.5 million and $10.5 million for the 2020 and 2021 seasons respectively.
Finally, because everyone is interested in the Toms River, NJ native, the White Sox also have Todd Frazier. On a positive note, Frazier has proven that he is able to hit for power away from the Great American Ballpark. In fact, Frazier’s 40 home runs this season were a career high. These home run totals to mask the fact that Frazier is a career .225/.302/.464 hitter who has seen a steady decline in his batting average and OBP over the past three seasons.
Defensively, Frazier has been a good third baseman, but he did have a slight dropoff this season as per UZR and DRS. In addition to third base, Frazier has played some first making him a versatile infielder. That would be important for a Mets team that arguably has injury concerns at every position in the infield. Frazier is third year arbitration eligible, and he will be a free agent in 2018.
Understandably, Mets fans covet one if not all of these players. The issue becomes what are you going to be willing to give up for anyone of these players who not only suits a need for the Mets, but is also cost controlled? Judging from the haul the White Sox obtained in the Sale trade, the team is wisely extracting the most possible value for its players.
While nothing has been reported, it is likely the White Sox would look to obtain players like Michael Conforto, Justin Dunn, Robert Gsellman, Steven Matz, Tomas Nido, Dominic Smith or really any big prospect the Mets have in exchange for any combination of the aforementioned White Sox players. At some point during trade discussions, if they were to take place, the questions is ultimately going to be whether trading a significant part of the future would be worth a player of Robertson’s or Eaton’s caliber.
Since the 2014 season ended, Zack Wheeler has thrown exactly zero pitches in the major leagues. First, it was because he needed Tommy John surgery on the eve of the 2015 season. Then, it was because he had a series of setbacks during this rehab from said surgery throughout the 2016 season. With that, the Mets have no idea what they are going to get from Wheeler during the 2017 season.
Here is one thing you do know you are not going to get from him: 200 innings. Asking Wheeler to make 30+ starts and pitch 200 innings is unrealistic, and it is unfair. Realistically speaking, putting any expectations on him is unfair.
Quite possibly, the best thing for Wheeler for the 2017 season is to transition to the bullpen and have the Mets monitor his usage. In essence, the Mets could go into the 2017 season enacting a set of Joba Rules for Wheeler. It is a concept Sandy Alderson floated this offseason saying, “But it may be that coming back after two years, he’s better off pitching out of the ‘pen. He might have to be careful. He might not be able to pitch back-to-back. It might have to be two innings at a time. These are all hypothetical at the moment, but I don’t see any reason to just eliminate the possibility.” (nj.com).
Better put, it is time to give Wheeler the John Smoltz treatment.
Back in 2000, Smoltz had missed the entire season due to season ending surgery because he needed Tommy John surgery. On the Jonah Keri Podcast, Smoltz stated the Atlanta Braves only wanted him to return as a closer, and because he wanted to remain a Brave, he did what was requested of him. During his time as a closer, Smoltz stated he learned about mentally what it meant to close. Notably, Smoltz stated he did not change the way he pitched when he closed games. Smoltz focused on throwing strikes more than maxing out and trying to strike everyone out. It is notable that Smoltz was able to save 55 games in 2001, which was his first season back from Tommy John.
While Wheeler won’t be closing with the presence of Jeurys Familia and Addison Reed, there is room for him in the bullpen. Putting him in the bullpen would permit him to go out there and re-learn how to pitch in one to two inning increments. It will allow him to rebuild himself as a pitcher much in the way Smoltz had done. Wheeler could focus on throwing strikes, which has always been an issue for him, and it will allow him to mentally prepare himself to get those big outs in a game. More importantly, it presents an avenue for Wheeler to help the Mets win the World Series.
What is notable about following the Smoltz model is the fact that Smoltz sees a lot of himself in Wheeler. Previously on MLB Now, Smoltz stated Wheeler was the one pitcher in the major leagues right now that most reminds him of himself. In making the comparison, Smoltz noted some factors including the repetoire and Wheeler’s use of the inverted W. Another factor for the comparison was the player’s respective injury history. The main difference between the two, aside from Smoltz being a Hall of Famer, was Smoltz’s ability to make adjustments and Smoltz’s having pitched out of the bullpen.
As we have seen, pitching out of the bullpen not only helped Smoltz become an important part of the Braves after his rehab, it also helped prolong his career. The Smoltz model is one that has proven to be successful, and it proved it is not a bar to returning to the starting rotation. With that in mind, this could be the preferable route to reintegrating Wheeler onto this Mets team.
Last offseason, the Mets re-signing Yoenis Cespedes put the final touches on the team everyone hoped would compete for a World Series. This year, the re-signing of Cespedes is really just a start for a team that still needs to make a number of moves this offseason. Here is a look at the moves the Mets still need to make:
TRADE JAY BRUCE
With Cespedes back, Jay Bruce likely becomes the outfielder the Mets will trade this offseason. In his nine year career, Bruce has been a .248/.318/.467 hitter who has averaged 27 homers and 82 RBI. At $13 million next season, that production is arguably a bargain. That is probably a reason why teams have been in contact with the Mets trying to inquire what the team will want in exchange for Bruce. While it is hard to believe the Mets will be able to bring in a prospect like Dilson Herrera or a player that will have a similar impact that Bruce will have in 2017, it should not be ruled out that the Mets will be able to acquire a player of consequence that will help the team next season.
DETERMINE MICHAEL CONFORTO’S POSITION
If the Mets are going to trade Bruce, it is another sign that the Mets see Michael Conforto as an everyday player. Where he will be an everyday player remains to be seen. With Cespedes returning for four years with a no trade clause, the only thing we know is that Conforto will not be the teams everyday left fielder anytime soon. That leaves center and right field.
During Conforto’s time in AAA last year, he began learning both positions. In his limited time in the majors at both positions, he showed he may very well be able to handle either position on an everyday basis. However, given the presence of Juan Lagares on this team, the best thing for Conforto and the Mets is to transition him to right field. Let him get fully acclimated there and focus on getting back to where he was April of last year. This will also let Lagares and Curtis Granderson handle center field duties next season, which was a platoon that may work very well for the Mets next year.
OBTAIN A LOOGY
Last year, Jerry Blevins had a terrific year out of the bullpen for the Mets as a LOOGY. In fact, he proved to be a bit more as he had a career best year pitching against right-handed batters. However, he is a free agent now, and the Mets do not appear as if they are able or inclined to give him the multi-year deal that he may command in free agency.
The internal left-handed options are Josh Edgin and Josh Smoker. Edgin did have some success against left-handed batters in limited duty in the majors last year, but with his velocity still not having fully returned after his Tommy John surgery, it is hard to rely upon him in any capacity next year. Smoker had outstanding strikeout rates in the minors and the majors last year, but he has reverse splits. Therefore, the Mets are going to have to look outside the organization to figure out who will be the first lefty out of the pen next season.
OBTAIN ONE OR MORE LATE INNING RELIEVERS
The Mets bullpen really is in a state of flux at the moment due to the Jeurys Familia domestic violence arrest. Pending an investigation by MLB, it is possible that Familia will miss a significant number of games next season. If that is the case, Addison Reed should prove more than capable of closing games in Familia’s absence. This begs the question of who will step up and take over Reed’s role in the short term.
It was a question the Mets faced most of 2016, and they did not find a good answer until they obtained Fernando Salas on the eve of the waiver trade deadline. Given his late inning and closing experience, Salas would be a good option to pitch in the seventh, eighth, or ninth inning next year. However, he is a free agent at the moment meaning the Mets are going to have to presumably sign or trade for someone to take over this role. In fact, the Mets may very well need two late inning relievers to address the bullpen.
SIGN A VETERAN STARTER
The one lesson learned from the 2016 season should be that once again you can never have too much pitching. With the return of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz, the Mets rotation is almost complete. The question is who will become the team’s fifth starter.
The first name that will be mentioned is Zack Wheeler. However, after missing all of 2015 and 2016, no one can be quite certain he is ready and able to assume the fifth starter’s role. The next names that will be mentioned are Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman. Both pitched quite well for the Mets in the stretch run last year, but the Mets may prefer to have a veteran arm who is able to eat up innings and/or can go deeper into the season than any of the aforementioned pitchers. Preferably, the pitcher they do sign would be willing to move to the bullpen in the event Wheeler, Lugo, or Gsellman wins the job in Spring Training or is ready to take over at some point during the season.
FIGURE OUT THE BACK-UP CATCHER SITUATION
Even with Rene Rivera back in the fold and despite his excellent work with Noah Syndergaard, there is still room for improvement on the catching front. Many will mention the recently non-tendered Wellington Castillo, but people should realize he’s an average hitter at best. Moreover, he’s a terrible pitch framer. Mets need to do better than that, but to be fair, that may not be possible.
Whatever the Mets decide to do, they first have to realize that Kevin Plawecki has twice proven he should not be relied upon to be the team’s primary back-up catcher. Next, the Mets have to realize they need a viable backup who can handle playing a number of games due to Travis d’Arnaud‘s injury history.
There are some other matters that need to be figured out as well. For example, do you want Ty Kelly and T.J. Rivera competing for the last spot on the bench, or do you want to re-sign Kelly Johnson? The answer to this and many other questions will largely depend on how much money the Mets have to spend the offseason and/or what the Mets are able to obtain in exchange for Bruce.
Cespedes was a great start to the offseason, but the Mets work is far from over.
After protecting Amed Rosario, Tomas Nido, Chris Flexen, Marcos Molina, and Wuilmer Becerra from the Rule 5 Draft, the Mets 40 man roster now stands at precisely 40 players. This means that now when the Mets look to add a player in free agency, they will have to cut one of the players off of their 40 man roster. And yes, the Mets will have to remove some players off of the 40 man roster.
From all indications, even if the Mets do no re-sign Yoenis Cespedes, they are pursuing other outfielders to replace him. With the possible suspension of Jeurys Familia looming, it is likely, the Mets will have to add one, if not two, late inning relievers. The team may be interested in bringing back Jerry Blevins or finding another LOOGY. In addition to those moves, there are some other moves or upgrades the Mets may make this offseason. With that in mind, here are some players whose spot on the 40 man roster is tenuous:
PITCHERS
Heading into the 2015 season, Edgin was supposed to be the Mets LOOGY for years to come. Those plans changed when he needed Tommy John surgery causing him to miss the entire 2015 season.
He returned in 2016, and he was not the same pitcher having lost velocity off of all of his pitches. He went from having a mid-90s fastball to having a low 90s fastball. As a result, Edgin got hit around. In AAA, he had a 3.51 ERA and a 1.650 WHIP. In his limited stints in the majors, he had a 5.23 ERA and a 1.548 WHIP. Another complication for Edgin is he is arbitration eligible meaning the Mets are presumably going to have to pay him a lot more to keep him on the roster.
On a positive note, Edgin still did get left-handed batters out at the major league level. In a very small sample size (20 plate appearances), lefties only hit .235 off of him with no extra base hits. It is a big reason why he was on the Wild Card Game roster when the Mets faced a San Francisco Giants team stacked with lefties. Between his ability to get lefties out, the hope his arm could improve a second year removed from surgery, and his still having options available, there is still some hope for Edgin.
Gilmartin has gone from an important bullpen arm the Mets acquired in the 2014 Rule 5 Draft to a player who is seemingly lost his ability to get batters out.
Despite Gilmartin being a valuable long man in the pen, the Mets had him start the year in AAA to become starting pitching depth. In 18 starts and one relief appearance, he was 9-7 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.425 WHIP. On a couple of occasions, he was recalled, and he pitched exclusively in relief for the Mets. Things did not go well for him in those 14 relief appearances as Gilmartin had a 7.13 ERA and a 1.585 WHIP. Between his performance and his having to go on the minor league disabled list with shoulder soreness, it was a lost year for Gilmartin.
Some of the struggles of Gilmartin were the result of his uneven usage between AAA and the majors. The other issue was his shoulder soreness, which for now, appears to no longer be an issue. Another strong factor in his favor is the fact that he is not yet arbitration eligible meaning the Mets do not have to pay him much to see if he returns to form. His having options available is also a positive. The Mets could still keep him on the roster with the idea of returning him to the role he was most successful.
There is perhaps no Mets pitcher that evokes such split opinions than Goeddel. For years, there were people who saw a pitcher that was able to go out there and get outs. There were others who saw a guy who had fringy stuff that was more the beneficiary of good luck than good pitching. After the 2016 season, most people agree that Goeddel was a liability for the Mets.
In 36 appearances for the Mets, Goeddel had a 4.54 ERA and a 1.318 WHIP. It should be noted this was a big departure from how he had previously pitched with the Mets. In 2014 and 2015, Goeddel had a combined 2.48 ERA and a 1.000 WHIP. His prior success, his pre-arbitration status, and his having options remaining, gives him a chance to remain on the 40 man roster.
How he is still on the 40 man roster is anyone’s guess. Entering the 2016 season, the Mets had it with him, and they sent him a message by making him one of the first people sent down to minor league Spring Training. Montero responded by pitching so poorly in Las Vegas that he was demoted to Binghamton. It was only due a rash of pitching injuries that he got a shot at pitching in the majors again, and like his other opportunities, he squandered that. Still, despite all that, the Mets cut Eric Campbell and Jim Henderson, AND exposed Paul Sewald to the Rule 5 Draft all for the sake of holding onto Montero that much longer. Eventually, you have to assume Montero is going to get cut from the roster. It is only a matter of when.
Strangely enough, the Mets had to make a decision on whether to expose Verrett to the Rule 5 Draft or to remove a player from the 40 man roster to protect him. The Mets chose the former, and lost him for a period of time. After Verrett struggled with the Rangers, the Mets took him back where Verrett pitched well out of the bullpen and the rotation for the Mets.
The Mets envisioned Verrett succeeding in that role in 2016, but it wasn’t to be. He wasn’t as effective replacing Matt Harvey in the rotation as he was in 2015. He went from a 3.63 ERA as a starter to a 6.45 ERA. He performed so poorly out of the rotation that the Mets gave Montero a chance to start over him down the stretch of the season.
Still, there was a silver lining to Verrett’s 2016 season. In his 23 relief appearances, he had a 2.84 ERA. When you consider his reliever ERA, how well he performed in 2015, his pre-arbitration status, and his having options remaining, there is still a chance for Verrett to remain on the 40 man roster.
POSITION PLAYERS
Thinking of Plawecki being on the bubble is a bit odd especially when he is only 25 years old, has shown himself to be a terrific pitch framer, and he has only had 409 plate appearances at the major league level.
The problem there is Plawecki hasn’t hit at all in those 409 plate appearances. In his brief major league career, Plawecki is a .211/.287/.285 hitter. That’s worse than what Rene Rivera could give you, and Rivera has firmly established himself as Noah Syndergaard‘s personal catcher. Worse yet, Plawecki is not the defensive catcher Rivera is.
When you also consider Tomas Nido‘s breakout season in St. Lucie possibly forcing the Mets to protect him a year earlier than anticipated, the Mets are going to be faced with the dilemma of carrying four catchers on their 40 man roster. With Nido perhaps passing him as the catcher of the future, and Travis d’Arnaud having shown he has more offensive ability than Plawecki, it is quite possible, Plawecki could find himself having run out of chances with the Mets organization.
With all that said, it is hard to believe the Mets moving on from Plawecki this soon is his career.
This is an interesting situation for Kelly to be in considering he was signed to be minor league depth last season. With a rash of injuries and some hot hitting in AAA, Kelly finally reached the majors after his long seven year odyssey in the minor leagues.
After some time, the Mets actually discovered who Kelly was. Despite his switch hitting skills, he really could only hit from the right-hand side against major league pitching. He was versatile, but his best position was left field. Overall, his main asset down the stretch in September was as a pinch runner. He was mostly used as a pinch runner because of the dearth of team speed on the Mets roster. With all the said, he did make the Wild Card Game roster, and he got a pinch hit single off Madison Bumgarner.
Basically, all the reasons you can make for him being kept on the roster or being cut from the roster are the same exact things you could have said about Campbell, and he just signed a deal to play in Japan.
Overall, it is hard to guesstimate how many of these players are going to remain on the roster because we are not sure how many moves the Mets are going to make this offseason. Normally, you would say Montero was sure to be cut, but he is more and more looking like the pitching version of Campbell . . . there is just no getting rid of the guy. Still, as we learned from Campbell, there is going to become a breaking point, and that point may well be when the Mets sign enough players this offseason to take them from the Wild Card back to being World Series contenders.
Editor’s Note: a version of this story was originally run on Mets Merized Online
Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive. For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month. Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment. There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection. It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets. Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad). For the tenth and final set of grades, here is Terry Collins grade:
Sometimes grading a manager can be difficult. For starters, we cannot truly know how much of an impact the manager has in the clubhouse. For example, one person’s “player’s manager” is another person’s “letting the inmates run the asylum.” Essentially, that narrative is written based upon the type of year the team had.
Furthermore, in the modern game, we are unsure how much of an impact the front office has on daily decision making. It used to be that the General Manager would hire a manager, and then he would step aside and let the manager run the team as he saw fit. Now, there is a some level of interference in each organization. Some provide data and other tools to the manager while others are at least rumored to try to fill out line-up cards for teams.
If we are being honest, there really are times we do not know what is and what is not a manager’s fault. However, we do know that everything lies at the manager’s feet, and it is ultimately the manager that will have to be responsible for the choices made. Looking at Terry Collins’ choices is complicated. Lets review:
The Good
If you are being fair, Collins did what he was paid to do by bringing the Mets to the postseason in consecutive seasons. That is no small feat, especially for a franchise that has only done it once before in their entire history. There was also a large degree in difficulty in doing so, especially when you lose Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz to season-ending surgeries at different points in the season.
He also had to deal with a number of other injuries. There was the fairly expected ones like David Wright, the reasonably foreseen like Lucas Duda, and the out of nowhere like Wilmer Flores. Yoenis Cespedes dealt with a quad issue most of the summer too. Once again, it was not a ringing endorsement of the medical and training staff this season. Still, Collins dealt with it, and took a team that was two games under .500 in August, and the Mets claimed a Wild Card spot. Again, teams normally collapse in these circumstances. Collins’ team showed resolve, and for that, he deserves a lot of credit.
A major reason why was the emergence of Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman. These two young players contributed much earlier than expected and were better than anyone ever expected. One reason why is Collins matched them up with Rene Rivera who has excelled mentoring young pitching. Collins deserves credit for that as he does matching up Rivera with Noah Syndergaard to help alleviate the issues associated with Syndergaard holding on base runners. Collins use of Rivera might’ve been the best decision he made all season, and it could very well have been the reason why the Mets returned to the postseason.
The Bad
The one issue I cannot get over all season was how reckless Collins was with his bullpen arms. It wasn’t aggressive. It wasn’t demanding. The only real term to use was reckless.
In April, he put Jim Henderson into a day game after a night game despite Henderson coming off shoulder surgeries and Henderson having thrown a career high in pitches the previous night. The reason? Collins determined an April game was a must-win game. In a sport that plays 162 games, no April game can be considered a must-win. During that inning, Henderson had no velocity, couldn’t get a guy out, and he would have to be lifted from the game. After that outing, Henderson wasn’t the same guy that made the team out of Spring Training, and he would have to be put on the disabled list with a shoulder injury. He went from lock down seventh inning guy to removed from the 40 man roster as soon as the season ended.
Then there was Hansel Robles. Collins treated him like every arm he ruined in his past. Despite having a number of guys who could go more than one inning, including long man Logan Verrett, it was Robles who was called to the whip time and time again. During a one week stretch in June, Robles threw 127 pitches over three mutiple inning appearances. Then when he finally got some rest, Robles came right back out and threw 33 pitches over two innings. Robles sustained the abuse well for most of the season, but then he tailed off at the end of the year.
Somehow, someway Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia never got injured. It really is a miracle because they were used more than any other combination of relievers in baseball in 2016. The wear and tear finally showed in the Wild Card Game when neither pitcher had much of anything left. Both struggled in their respective innings of work. Reed was able to get out of it, but Familia wasn’t.
While the bullpen usage was an issue, there were other problems with Collins. He completely mishandled Michael Conforto this season. Conforto had gone from one of the best hitters in baseball in April, to a guy Collins outright refused to play down the stretch of the season despite Conforto hitting nearly .500 in AAA during his demotion.
Keep in mind, Conforto was not the only player who regressed this season. Travis d’Arnaud had looked prime to break out in 2016. Unfortunately, his season was marked by injuries and regression. With Conforto and d’Arnaud, there are two important young players who regressed under Collins.
Finally, there was the matter of how injuries were handled. Harvey’s injury issues were blamed on mechanics. Collins kept putting Cespedes out there everyday to play despite his clearly being hobbled. Same goes for Asdrubal Cabrera. The worst might have been talking Matz out of getting season ending surgery in order to pitch through what was described as a massive bone spur. Eventually, Matz would have to scrap his slider, would experience some shoulder discomfort, and he would finally get shut down for the season.
Overall
In a sport where you are judged by wins and losses, Collins was successful despite the issues he faced. However, many of those issues were self-inflicted. Given the fact that he brought the team to the postseason for a consecutive year, he should have received a high grade. However, Collins consistently risked the health of his players, and some were worse off as a result. You need to look no further than Henderson who is right now looking to catch onto a team yet again. Even worse yet, the young players the Mets need to take them to the next level next year are question marks due largely to Collins’ mishandling of them. Altogether, Collins season earned him a C-.
Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links.
Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive. For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month. Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment. There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection. It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets. Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad). For the seventh set of grades, here are the Mets spot starters:
Familia would not repeat the dominance of his 2015 campaign, but still he would be among the best relievers in the game. He would set a new Mets record for most saves in a season, beating the record he shared with Armando Benitez. In fact, he led the majors in saves and games finished. He pitched more innings and made more appearances than any other closer. Overall, he was 3-4 with 51 saves, a 2.55 ERA, and a 1.210 WHIP. He was a deserving All-Star, and he cemented his place among the best closers in baseball. Time and again, he answered the call . . . until he didn’t.
In the Wild Card Game, admittedly a game the Mets do not reach without him, Familia was not up to the task. We can over-emphasize the three run homer hit by Conor Gillaspie, but that was just a part of an inning where Familia didn’t have his command, and he wasn’t fooling the Giants hitters. It was a tragic end to what was a good season for Familia.
Addison Reed A+
One thing that was lost during the 2016 season was the eighth inning was supposed to be a question mark with Tyler Clippard departing in free agency. We forget about this because Reed was just that great this season. In 80 appearances, he was 4-2 with a 1.97 ERA and a 0.940 WHIP. Overall, he probably was the best relief pitcher in the National League. He combined with Familia to create the best 8-9 combination in the major leagues, and together, they walked a tight rope night-in and night-out. With no margin for error, they made each game a seven inning game, and they were among the biggest reasons the Mets made the postseason.
Henderson’s 2016 season is an example of why baseball is cruel. After losing almost two full years due to shoulder injuries, he not only made the Mets out of Spring Training, but he was also handed the seventh inning job. In April, Henderson excelled with his 95+ MPH fastball. He was helping turn it into a six inning game with Reed and Familia behind him. Then disaster struck.
After throwing a career high 34 pitches, Terry Collins would put him back in there a day game after a night game. Collins’ excuse was it was a must-win game. It was April 13th. Henderson had nothing that day, and he would get lifted after loading the bases (Hansel Robles got out of the jam). After that game, Henderson lost a bit off his fastball, and he would eventually need a long stay on the disabled list with a shoulder issue. Even with the stay on the disabled list, he was never the same. A promising year ended with him going 2-2 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.371 WHIP.
Salas came to the Mets at the waiver trade deadline, and he had a similar effect that Reed did for the 2015 Mets. Essentially, Salas locked down the seventh inning, and he allowed the Mets to pull back a bit on the usage of Reed and Familia. He responded well to the workload and the Mets pitch framing. Overall, he would make 17 appearances going 0-1 with a 2.08 ERA and a 0.635 WHIP. The Mets and Salas should be interested in a reunion this offseason.
Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links.
Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive. For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month. Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment. There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection. It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets. Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad). For the first set of grades, I will start with the catching position:
After a breakout 2015 season, this was supposed to be the year that d’Arnaud broke out and became an All Star caliber catcher. Instead, we were faced with another injury plagued year, discussion of moving on from him and acquiring Jonathan Lucroy, and finally him effectively losing the starting job to Rivera.
Let’s start with the good. Believe it or not, and many Mets fans don’t believe it, d’Arnaud had another great year behind the plate. He was once again one of the best pitch framers in all of baseball, he called a good game, was the Mets best catcher in terms of limiting wild pitches and passed balls, did another phenomenal job of navigating baseballs plate blocking rules, and had the full confidence of his pitching staff. And yes, while his throwing took a major step back this year due to a combination of poor mechanics and a shoulder injury, he was better than advertised trying to throw out base runners. With that said, despite many of the stolen bases having come off the pitching staff this year, yes, d’Arnaud did regress, but it was not to the point where he became a major liability.
Now the bad. There is no way to put it nicely. d’Arnaud was simply terrible at the plate this year. In 75 games, he hit just .247/.307/.323 with only four homers and 15 RBI. He didn’t have one extra base hit or an RBI off of a left-handed pitcher the entire season. His numbers were almost as bad as they were in his 2014 rookie season when Mets had to send him down to the minors to let him fix his issues at the plate. The Mets couldn’t afford to do that this season.
In some ways, d’Arnaud is unique across the game of baseball. He is the rare catcher that is expected to be a significant offensive contributor for his team. He didn’t just fail in that regard; he was actually a liability at the plate. This was the main reason d’Arnaud eventually lost his starting job. If he hit, he would’ve played more, but he didn’t. In the end, it was a disappointing and yet another injury plagued season for him. However, his 2015 season gives us hope, and that is why we can expect him to rebound and be a significant contributor next year.
If you want to be fair to Plawecki, you would say he should never have started the season as the Mets backup catcher. The former first round pick had the potential to be more than just a backup, and with that he should have been in AAA honing his craft instead of waiting idly by until d’Arnaud got injured again.
Still, that is not an excuse for Plawecki to once again squander the opportunity given to him. Y0u think d’Arnaud’s offensive stats were bad? Plawecki’s were worse. In the time he was the backup and took over for d’Arnaud, Plawecki hit .194/.301/.258 with five doubles, one home run, and 10 RBI in 41 games. He wasn’t much better in his September call-up. For the season Plawecki hit .197/.298/.265 with six doubles, one homer, and 11 RBI.
Sure, Plawecki did hit well in AAA like everyone seems to do. In 55 games with Las Vegas, he hit .300/.348/.484 with 11 doubles, eight homers, and 40 RBI. While not outstanding for the Pacific Coast League, it did show a marked improvement over what he has been in the majors. However, they were still empty numbers. As we saw in Plawecki’s limited time in September, he had made no adjustments while in AAA. He was still a pull happy ground ball hitter who does not make a lot of hard contact. With the Mets likely returning d’Arnaud and Rivera next year, he is likely going to get one last shot to improve and make himself a major league hitter.
With all that said, it should be pointed out that Plawecki has established he can be an effective backup catcher at the major league level. While he was touted for his offensive skills, Plawecki was really established himself as a good defensive catcher with excellent pitch framing skills. Given the fact that catchers tend to develop later than other players, it would be unwise to cut bait with him even with the rise of Tomas Nido.
Rene Rivera C+
This season the Mets got the best out of what Rivera could offer. He was a good defensive catcher, he helped Noah Syndergaard through his issues holding on base runners, he mentored Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo, and we discovered he could actually hit left-handed pitching pretty well. With his work with young pitching, and with d’Arnaud’s struggles, Rivera effectively took over the starting job late in the season.
Overall, this was the second best season of Rivera’s career. Still, he was not very good. He only accumulated a 0.4 WAR and a 69 OPS+. Most of his offensive stats were from a nine game July hot streak that saw him hit .323/.400/.581 with two doubles, two homers, and seven RBI. Other than that nine game stretch, Rivera hit .201/.256/.292 with two doubles, four homers, and 19 RBI in 56 games. Those are Plawecki type numbers the Mets wanted to move away from when they made the switch from Plawecki to Rivera as the backup catcher.
Another note, Rivera was awful behind the plate in the Wild Card Game. Yes, he did go 1-3 off Madison Bumgarner. However, it was his work behind the plate that was troubling. Many criticized the work of home plate umpire Mike Winters for missing a number of close pitches made by Mets pitchers. However, it should be noted that Buster Posey, a superior pitch framer to everyone, was getting those calls for Bumgarner. While he is usually a good pitch framer, Rivera was terrible at it during the Wild Card Game stabbing at many pitches. With that he extended some at-bats making Syndergaard go deeper into counts and not allowing him to pitch into the eighth. Also, his passed ball and poor pitch framing cost Addison Reed some pitches and quite possibly gave the Giants some confidence heading into the ninth against Jeurys Familia (note: Rivera had nothing to do with Familia making a bad pitch to Conor Gillaspie).
That game marred what was a pretty good year for Rivera. Given his rapport with Syndergaard, he should start the year as his personal catcher. It will also be nice to have him around should Gsellman or Lugo need to make some spot starts next season.
Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links.
If you are a diehard Mets fan, or if you are a Mets fan well versed in the history of the team, you know how the Cubs were the Mets first real rival. You know the stories about how Ron Santo clicked his heels taunting the Mets, and you warmly remember the black cat crossing Santo’s path. From there, the Mets overtook the Cubs to win the National League East en route to winning the 1969 World Series.
In 1984, the Cubs obtained Rick Sutcliffe, and the team went on an incredible run to win the National League East over the upstart New York Mets who went from 68 to 90 wins with their first full season with Keith Hernandez and Darryl Strawberry. By the way, it was also the rookie year for phenom Dwight Gooden.
Then there was the NLCS last year that saw Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Jacob deGrom dominate a terrific Cubs lineup. We all knew the Cubs were a great team, but the Mets were their kryptonite. As a Mets fan, a large part of you had to wonder if the Cubs even make the World Series if the Mets pitching was healthy.
But the angst goes well beyond that. There was Ben Zobrist as the World Series MVP. Mets fans watched him be a major contributor to a Kansas City Royals team who beat the Mets in the World Series last year. In the offseason, he was seemingly all but assured to join the Mets to replace Daniel Murphy. Instead, literally at the 11th hour, he spurned the Mets, and he signed with the Cubs. Part of you had to wonder how different the 2016 season would have been had Zobrist signed with the Mets.
The Cubs also overcame a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series. The Mets were in the same position last year, and like the Cubs, the Mets had their starting pitching aligned. It all seemed to be going according to plan as Harvey carried a shutout into the ninth inning. As we remember, Terry Collins went against his better instinct, and he sent Harvey out there instead of Jeurys Familia. Harvey allowed a walk and a double to narrow the gap to 2-1. Familia then did his job getting the ground ball to get out of the game only for David Wright to cut off a ball he shouldn’t have played allowing Eric Hosmer an extra jump rounding third. That was important as it gave Hosmer the ability to break for home, and he scored with Lucas Duda making the worst throw of his life.
Watching the 10th inning reminded me of that 12th inning game of that ill fated Game 5. Watching a cold and tired Joe Shaw helplessly trying to get out of the jam reminded me of an overworked and tired Addison Reed getting hit left and right by the Royals in what was a devastating seven run inning.
In many respects, as a Mets fan it was tough to watch. It was even tougher to watch when you consider Theo Epstein got his Cubs team to win the World Series before the Mets could win one despite Sandy Alderson having been on the job a year longer than Epstein. It is all the more frustrating when you consider the Cubs beat out the Mets for Zobrist, and the Cubs spent a lot of money in the past offseason.
The one solace to take out of all of this is the fact that the Mets are built to win not just next year, but in the ensuing years. And yes, the Mets are built to contend with or without Yoenis Cespedes. Not only do the Mets have the pitching, but they also have players like Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario on the way. There is still hope for Michael Conforto and Travis d’Arnaud to rebound in 2017 to recapture their 2015 form. Duda can put together a healthy contract year season. There is still a lot of hope for the Mets to be World Series contenders the next couple of seasons. There are also the seeds for a real rivalry between the Mets and the Cubs over the next few seasons.
However, as of right now, all that is left behind is a World Series victory for the Cubs, and the Mets wondering both “what if” and “how do we get back there.” That is what stings most of all.