Jay Bruce
Back in 1998, a Mike Piazza led Mets team was in prime position for the Wild Card. They were one game up on the Cubs with five home games left in the season. First up was the 97 loss Montreal Expos followed by the clinched a long time ago Atlanta Braves. The Mets wouldn’t win another game.
In the process, the Mets would finish one game behind the Chicago Cubs AND the San Francisco Giants. Behind Steve Trachsel, the Cubs would win the Wild Card in the one game playoff. The Mets would stay at home watching as they couldn’t beat a bad team or the Braves.
That and tonight’s game is a reminder that the Mets have not locked up one of the Wild Card spots.
Simply put, Noah Syndergaard was not good tonight. He only lasted 3.2 innings allowing eight hits and five earned. It didn’t matter that he was throwing his fastball over 100 MPH and his slider was back to 95 MPH. He wasn’t locating, and the Braves were hitting him.
As usual, it was Freddie Freeman who killed the Mets. He homered in the third to make it 3-0. He then effectively knocked Syndergaard out if the game with a two run double in the fourth.
Conversely, the Mets weren’t hitting. The sum of their offense through the first eight innings was a T.J. Rivera two run homer off Braves starter Aaron Blair. This was the same Blair that entered the game 0-6 with an 8.23 ERA and a 1.774 WHIP.
Simply put, the Mets offense laid an egg. Still, the Mets were only down 5-2 after the Rivera homer. The game was within striking distance.
Josh Edgin and Hansel Robles would combine in the seventh to put the game out of reach. Edgin, in his second inning of work, would load the bases. Robles came on in relief, and he allowed a Dansby Swanson two run bloop single to left making it 7-2.
By the way, Swanson is becoming an annoying Brave. He opened the scoring in the second with an RBI single in addition to the aforementioned two RBI single. Overall, he was 3-5 with one run, three RBI, and one stolen base.
The Mets did get something going on the ninth. Michael Conforto led off with a single. Ender Inciarte then misplayed a James Loney line drive single into an RBI double. The Mets had something brewing. It ended when Terry Collins turned to Ty Kelly and Jay Bruce to pinch hit for Kevin Plawecki and Rafael Montero respectively.
Kelly struck out looking and Bruce popped out to right. After a Jose Reyes popped out to left to make the final out, the Mets have given the Giants and Cardinals an opportunity to cut into the Mets narrow lead in the Wild Card race.
Game Notes: Loney was 3-4 with an RBI double. Curtis Granderson was 3-4 with a run. As a team the Mets were 0-7 with runners in scoring position.
When a player goes down, the natural inclination is to go seek out a veterans to be the stop gap or replacement. The reaction is understandable because you want a steady presence with someone who has proven stats. Granted, it’s most likely going to be diminished stats, but people would rather deal with that than a young player who may not be ready and could be even worse than the veteran.
That’s why we saw the Mets make a move to re-acquire Kelly Johnson not too long after David Wright went down. It’s why the Mets acquired James Loney to replace Lucas Duda. It’s also why the Mets brought back Jose Reyes to help an injured and underperforming Mets offense. It’s also why the Mets traded for Jay Bruce rather than counting on Michael Conforto to return to form. For the most part, it has worked out for the Mets.
With that said, Reyes is the only imported veteran who is currently producing. Johnson is mired in a 12-54 slump. Loney has hit .253/.287/.337 since the All Star Break. Bruce has hit .181/.261/.297 since joining the Mets.
These underperforming veterans coupled with the Neil Walker and Wilmer Flores injuries have forced the Mets to turn to some youngsters.
T.J. Rivera has all but taken over the second base job for the rest of the year. In the five games since he became the starting second baseman, he is hitting .450/.455/.800 with two home runs. Both of those home runs proved to be game winners. For the season, he is hitting .344/.344/.492.
Yesterday, Conforto started for Bruce, who the Mets have taken to booing after every at bat. Conforto made the most of his opportunity going 2-4 with two RBI. In the four games he was given an opportunity to start since he was recalled when rosters expanded, Conforto has gone 4-16 with two doubles, two RBI, a walk, and a hit by pitch.
It’s not just the offensive players that are outprodicing the veterans, it is the young pitchers as well.
When Matt Harvey went down, the Mets understandably turned to Logan Verrett who did an admirable job filling in as a spot starter last year. Unfortunately, this year he had a 6.45 ERA as a starter in 12 starts. The Mets also went out and brought back Jon Niese who was actually worse with the Mets than he was with the Pirates before undergoing season ending knee surgery.
With Verrett and Niese faltering and the injuries to Steven Matz and Jacob deGrom, the Mets had no choice but to go with their young pitchers.
First was Seth Lugo, who has arguably been the Mets best starter since he has joined the rotation. Lugo has made six starts going 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP. Including his nine relief appearances, Lugo is 4-2 with a 2.35 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP.
He is joined in the rotation by Robert Gsellman. Gsellman has made four starts and one relief appearance where he came in for Niese when he went down for good with his knee injury. Overall, Gsellman is 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.405 WHIP.
In addition to the offense and the rotation, the Mets have had Josh Smoker emerge in the bullpen. In 15 appearances, Smoker is 2-0 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP while bailing the Mets out of a few jams. More impressively, he is striking out 15.3 batters per nine innings.
Overall, these young and untested players have stepped up and helped take the Mets from an under .500 team to a team 11 games over .500 and in the top Wild Card spot.
One of the reasons the Mets went out and obtained Jay Bruce at the trade deadline is the team felt they needed another power bat in the lineup other than Yoenis Cespedes. Unfortunately, that trade hasn’t panned out well with Bruce hitting just .192/.271/.315 with just four homers and 11 RBI in 36 games as a Met. Worse yet, the Mets gave up Dilson Herrera, who could’ve taken over as the second baseman when Neil Walker required season ending back surgery and Wilmer Flores injured his neck.
Bruce’s struggles could be alleviated if the team was getting production at first base. However, James Loney has similarly struggled. Since the All Star Break, Loney is hitting .249/.276/.329 with only eight extra base hits in 51 games. These numbers are even worse when you consider Terry Collins has done all he could do to help Loney offensively by playing Flores at first against left-handed pitching. Worse yet, Loney’s reputation as a Gold Glove caliber first baseman has been greatly overblown. While defensive metrics for first base can be seen as imperfect, and cannot be fully trusted in a single season sample size, Loney has a -3.2 UZR and 0 DRS. Combining that with the prior two seasons, Loney has averaged a -2.4 UZR and a -1 DRS. Overall, these numbers speak to Loney’s lack of range and his failure to stretch on balls thrown to first base.
The solution to both of these problems would be Lucas Duda. In 2014, Duda beat out Ike Davis to become the Mets first baseman. In his two seasons as the Mets first baseman, Duda was a .249/.350/.483 hitter who averaged 28 homers and 82 RBI. Entering the season, Bruce was a .248/.319/.462 hitter who averages 26 homers and 80 RBI. Accordingly, Duda was a better power hitter and “run producer” who also got on base at a higher clip. Naturally, Duda far surpasses Loney has a hitter.
Defensively, Duda’s poor defensive reputation really rests on one bad throw in the World Series. Over his career, he has a 2.5 UZR and an 11 DRS. Over the two seasons he was the everyday first baseman, Duda averaged a 0.1 UZR and a 5 DRS. Using these advanced metrics, Duda is a much better defender than his reputation suggests, and he is a better defender than Loney. More importantly, as Keith Hernandez consistently pointed out over the past few seasons, Duda cheats to get to each and every ball thrown by an infielder. He stretches as far out as he can to help the Mets get the out calls on the close calls at first base.
Offensively and defensively, Duda is exactly what this Mets team needs for the stretch run and the postseason. Unfortunately, Duda suffered a stress fracture in his lower back. With a few setbacks during his rehabilitation, Duda was supposed to be gone for the season.
As it turns out, he wasn’t. Duda was able to get enough stationary bike riding and batting practice in for the Mets to feel comfortable activating him from the disabled list on Saturday. Even better, he got the surprise start on Sunday.
He would go 0-2 with a strikeout looking rusty at the plate. He was eventually lifted for Asdrubal Cabrera when the Twins brought in the left-handed Buddy Boshers to pitch the sixth. In the field, Duda was back to his normal form stretching out to give his team the best chance possible to get the base runner.
Getting on the field was a good start. However, if the Mets are going to make a run in the postseason, they will need Duda’s bat. There are 13 games left in the season for him to get into form. Hopefully, Collins will give him every opportunity to get going before the Wild Card Game.
If so, we have seen a hot Duda bat carry the Mets for long stretches. It just might carry the Mets to the World Series.
It doesn’t matter that the Twins are one if the worst teams in baseball. When you’re fighting for a postseason spot, the games are going to be tough. Tonight, the Twins showed a lot of fight. It certainly helped them that they were sending their ace, Ervin Santana, to the mound.
And you know with him being a former Brave, he’s pitches well against the Mets. That’s exactly what happened tonight.
The Mets did absolutely nothing against Santana for the first four innings. T.J. Rivera got things started with a single, and he moved to second on a balk. Because Paul Molitor apparently had no idea James Loney isn’t good, he ordered an intentional walk. It wouldn’t burn the Twins. First, Rene Rivera struck out. Then, Terry Collins gambled a bit pinch hitting Kelly Johnson for the starter Seth Lugo. Johnson popped out to end the inning.
It also closed the door on Lugo. It was the typical bend but don’t break Lugo outing where he found an extra gear on his fastball and three more curves when he was in trouble. The only run the Twins were able to score off of him was an Eddie Rosaro solo homer in the fourth.
Lugo’s final line would be five innings, four hits, one run, one earned, four walks, and two strikeouts.
The Mets had a chance to get Lugo off the hook in the seventh. T.J. got the rally sterted with a cue shot double down the first baseline followed by another inexplicable intentional walk to Loney. Alejandro De Aza pinch hit for Rene and walked to load the bases. Terry Collins then made two strange decisions.
The second, but most puzzling, was his waiting for a pitch to be thrown before having Ty Kelly pinch run for Loney. The other curious decision was going to Michael Conforto to pinch hit. It was strange because Conforto has been idle for too long and because he’s been uncomfortable pinch hitting. Furthermore, the Mets activated Lucas Duda just for spots like this. Collins went with Conforto, who had a bad at bat striking out on four pitches.
The bad news was the Mets missed out on another huge scoring opportunity. The good news was Santana was done for the night.
Jose Reyes gave a rude welcome to Twins reliever Ryan Pressly by hitting the first pitch by Pressly for a single. Reyes would quickly find himself on second after a wild pitch and an Asdrubal Cabrera groundout. With the game on the line, Yoenis Cespedes was at the plate with a 3-2 count, and he would lunge at a ball off the plate:
Of course, he came through in that spot tying the game at one. Molitor went to his left in the pen Taylor Rogers. Rogers would make quick work of the two lefties Collins was so nice to stack in the middle of the lineup, Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce. By the way, Bruce, the man Collins has the utmost confidence, was 0-5 with a strikeout.
The game would go into extras as:
The trifecta of T.J. Rivera, Ty Kelly and Kevin Plawecki were not able to drive in a run in the bottom of the ninth. I'll pause for gasps.
— Laura Albanese (@AlbaneseLaura) September 18, 2016
Lost with the Mets practically emptying their bench was terrific work out of the bullpen. Josh Smoker, Fernando Salas, Jerry Blevins, Addison Reed, Jeurys Familia, and Hansel Robles combined to pitch five shutout innings allowing only three hits and one walk with striking out eight.
However, they wouldn’t get a sixth shutout inning. Byron Buxton would hit a long home run off Robles to give the Twins a 2-1 lead in the 11th. It wasn’t a bad pitch, and it shows why people think Buxton is going to be a great player. None if that matters.
What matters is Granderson led off the bottom of the 11th with an opposite field home run to tie the game at two.
After Granderson’s homer, and the obligatory Bruce out, the Mets, sorry, Las Vegas 51s, continued the rally. T.J. and Brandon Nimmo hit back-to-back singles. Kevin Plawecki almost ended the game. However, instead of his liner going into center, it hit the pitcher leading to the fielder’s choice. It put the game in Matt Reynolds hands. After fouling a ball off his foot, Reynolds was hit by a pitch to load the bases.
Reyes worked out a nine pitch at bat, but he would strike out looking ending the inning and sending the game into the 12th.
Granderson once again hit the huge extra inning home run.
This one was a game winner – off a lefty to boot. It was the first time in Mets history a Mets player hit a game tying and game winning home run in extra innings.
With that, the Mets won a tough game and will make up ground on someone tonight.
Game Notes: Granderson’s homers wrre the Mets’ 200th & 201st of the season, which is the new Mets single season record.
Before the game started, Terry Collins announced he was going with Rene Rivera over Travis d’Arnaud because he was going with the “hot hand.”
There are a number of valid reasons why you would want to start Rivera. He has dealt well with young pitchers over his career, and the Mets were starting Robert Gsellman. The Nationals had players like Trea Turner, and Dusty Baker likes to set his guys loose, especially against the Mets. Rivera has a better chance go neutralize the running game.
However, hot hand? Coming into yesterday’s game, Rivera was hitting .235/.316/.235 over the past two weeks. Over the same time frame, d’Arnaud has been hitting .250/.357/.250. To say, Rivera is the hot hand is simply not true. While Rivera did throw out two base runners, he didn’t get a hit yesterday leaving two runners on base.
What was bizarre about Collins’ justification was he only applied that reasoning to d’Arnaud.
Jay Bruce is now two for his last 17 with just one RBI. Yet, he stays in the lineup over Michael Conforto, who was hitting .493/.541/.821 with four doubles, six homers, and 13 RBI in 17 games in Las Vegas before his call-up. Apparently for Collins that wasn’t a “hot hand.”
With respect to the Bruce/Conforto situation, he changed the rules. After the game, Collins said he’s sticking with Bruce because, “I’d better be confident that someone can do a better job.” (New York Post).
Apparently, Collins doesn’t have confidence that Conforto or Alejandro De Aza could do any better than 2-17. Even if Conforto or De Aza were going to go 1-17 or 2-17, they are going to do so while playing vastly superior defense to Bruce.
I guess it’s any excuse to justify whatever Collins’ lineup whims are on a game-to-game basis.
I wonder what his excuse will be for his continuing to play James Loney who is hitting .253/.281/.335 in the second half while playing a poor defensive first base? Hot hand and confidence are already taken.
The obvious answer to when a team loses a game is after they have recorded their 27th out. It’s also the technically correct answer. However, there are moments within a game, the proverbial turning points, when a team really loses the game.
With respect to today’s game against the Nationals, many will pinpoint the moment Wilson Ramos hit a solo home run off Fernando Salas in the bottom of the seventh. It would be the only run scored in the game. The reason it was the only run scored on the game was because the Mets offense wasted a chance to put a crooked number on the board in the first inning.
Jose Reyes and Asdrubal Cabrera led off the game with back-to-back singles off Tanner Roark. Curtis Granderson then drew a one out walk to load the bases. Then Jay Bruce stepped up to the plate. Bruce was brought to the Mets exactly for moments like this. He’s a “proven run producer.” Bruce struck out on three straight pitches.
After T.J. Rivera fouled out, the rally was over. From that point forward, the Mets would only get one more hit. It was important to get a hit there because Roark entered the game with a career 2.76 ERA against the Mets having never allowed more than two earned runs against them in any appearance. Their chance to win the game was right then and there, and they blew it.
It also spoiled a terrific effort by Robert Gsellman. The Gazelle shut out the Nationals over 5.2 innings only allowing five hits and one walk with four strikeouts. It was probably the best he looked in his short time in the majors.
He got into a little trouble in the sixth. He allowed a leadoff single to Roark, and Roark would advance on a wild pitch. At that point, even with two outs, Terry Collins wasn’t messing around with Daniel Murphy coming to the plate.
Not only did Collins bring in Josh Smoker, he ordered Smoker to intentionally walk Murphy. Smoker then caught Bryce Harper looking to get out of the jam.
Instead of this spurring the Mets to victory, it just delayed the inevitable. The Mets never threatened after the first losing the game. With it, the Mets lost the chance to go to 10 games over .500, and they missed the chance to leap to the top of the Wild Card standings.
Game Notes: In going 1-2, Murphy has gotten a hit in all 19 games against the Mets this season. The Nationals were 12-7 against the Mets this year after going 8-11 last year. Rene Rivera threw out two base stealers to complete strike ’em out-throw ’em out double plays.
To be fair to Terry Collins, he had a number of fine decisions yesterday. He went to Jerry Blevins to strike out Daniel Murphy to preserve the 4-3 extra inning win.
Collins also played a hunch starting T.J. Rivera at second. Rivera was the Mets offense last night, and he was the biggest reason the Mets won. Rivera made two nice defensive plays in the field, but it was his bat that was the difference. He was 3-4 with three RBI and a game winning homer against Mark Melancon.
These heroics were in part due to Collins’ insistence on playing Jay Bruce.
Since joining the Mets, Bruce is hitting .190/.271/.317 with four homers and 11 RBI. He’s gone from the major league RBI leader to just another Met not able to hit with runners in scoring position. He’s gone from an RBI machine in Cincinnati to a near automatic out.
Yesterday was more of the same from Bruce. He was 0-4 with a walk leaving three runners on base.
Since the rosters were expanded on September 1st, with .212/.297/.394 with two homers and five RBI. That coincidentally is the same time Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo were called-up to the majors. When they were called up, Conforto was hitting .493/.541/.821 with six homers and 13 RBI, hitting both righties and lefties, in his most recent demotion to the minors. Nimmo was hitting .407/.474/.651 with four homers and 14 RBI in the month of August before he was re-called.
Conforto and Nimmo were hot at the plate, and yet, Collins didn’t care. He was going to play Bruce no matter what. Conceptually, you understand it because Bruce was the big bat the Mets added at the deadline. The cost of adding Bruce was Dilson Herrera. You want to get him going to help your chances of going to the postseason, and hopefully, the World Series. Collins is relying on his proven track record. The only problem is that track record isn’t what people think it is.
For his career, Bruce is a .247/.318/.466 hitter averaging 26 homers and 81 RBI. Over the prior three seasons, Bruce has been a .237/.303/.433 hitter with 25 homers and 87 RBI. Keep in mind, Bruce has been hitting in the Great American Ballpark which is a hitter’s ballpark. Bruce has been a low OBP hitter who has been a slightly better than average home run hitter.
Worse yet, he’s poor defensively. In fact, he is the Mets worst defensive outfielder. Playing Bruce moves Curtis Granderson to center field. Granderson isn’t a center fielder anymore. Playing Bruce keeps Alejandro De Aza on the bench, and De Aza is the Mets best defensive center fielder. By the way, Conforto has acquitted himself well in center, and he has shown himself to be a player capable of being a much better offensive player than Bruce.
So overall, on a night were Collins made a number of decisions that helped the team win, his insistence on playing Bruce continues to hamper the team offensively and defensively.
For much of this season, it is fair to say that the Mets have underachieved which has put them in a fight for the Wild Card instead of a fight for the division. Nothing speaks more to that than the Mets going 3-13 against the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and the White Sox. Flip that, and you have the Mets a game up on the Nationals right now.
If you want to argue the Mets are in this position due to injuries, you have to admit the Mets have exacerbated those problems. Jim Henderson‘s usage may not have caused the shoulder impingement, how he was used early in the season certainly didn’t help. Yoenis Cespedes and Asdrubal Cabrera were thrown out there game after game despite dealing with leg injuries. Neil Walker was playing everyday during the summer despite him not being able to feel his toes. This doesn’t even address pitching Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz with injuries of their own. Overall, the decisions to play these players was either Terry Collins‘ call or was a decision made in conjunction with him.
It’s important thing to keep in mind with Collins now being lauded for his managing and some wanting to put him in the Manager of the Year discussion. People want him in the discussion despite all that he has done to harm the Mets chances (and possibly players) to put them in position to return to the postseason. People want him in the discussion despite Collins making a poor decision each and every game that is at a minimum puzzling, and at worst prevents the Mets chances to win the game. Accordingly, after each game, I will have a separate entry highlighting Collins’ poor managerial decision making.
Yesterday, the Mets annihilated the Braves 10-3. In the fifth inning, the Mets had a 10-1 lead. The chances of blowing that game are next to nothing, and yet Collins kept his starters in virtually the entire game.
Asdrubal Cabrera has a balky knee. With the expanded rosters, the Mets had both Gavin Cecchini and Matt Reynolds available to take over for him. Behind them were Eric Campbell and Ty Kelly. There was plenty of depth not just to get Cabrera out of the game, but also to have pinch hitters and infielders available. Instead, Collins kept him in until the eighth inning.
Yoenis Cespedes has had an injured quad that has hampered him for most of the season. Curtis Granderson has shown signs of fatigue with his playing center field. The Mets had Jay Bruce, Brandon Nimmo, and Michael Conforto on the bench. Instead of getting Cespedes and Granderson out of the game, Cespedes played the full game and Granderson only came out in the eighth.
So no, Collins didn’t prevent the Mets from winning yesterday’s game. However, his decisions may have far-reaching implications for the Mets in the stretch run of the season.