Francisco Lindor
So, the Mets didn’t get Trevor Bauer. Instead, Bauer went to his hometown Los Angeles Dodgers for what might’ve been less money. Despite Bauer really not being better than the Mets fifth best starter, the over the top criticism started:
— Sal Licata (@sal_licata) February 5, 2021
https://twitter.com/bmonzoradio/status/1357780681670205441?s=21
This is just scratching the surface of what we find at the bottom of the barrel. For their sake, you hope this is just schtick because these are purely horrid opinions.
Yes, we all know the Mets didn’t get Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, or George Springer. Instead, they got better players and a much deeper roster. In fact, just look at who they signed/acquired so far this offseason:
- Francisco Lindor
- Carlos Carrasco
- Marcus Stroman
- James McCann
- Trevor May
- Sam McWilliams
- Aaron Loup
- Joey Lucchesi
- Jordan Yamamoto
That doesn’t include interesting depth options like Jerry Blevins, Jerad Eickhoff, Jose Martinez, Mallex Smith, Jose Peraza, and Arodys Vizcaino. There are other moves made on top of that.
We’ve also just learned with the Bauer bidding the Mets have at least $40 million they can invest in the 2021 team. It can also be used to extend players like Michael Conforto, Lindor, Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard.
If someone can take a look at that and what the Mets can still do, and say to you this is the same old Wilpon run Mets, they’re either lying, trying to get attention, think you’re gullible, have no idea what they’re talking about, or some mixture of these.
Make no mistake, this has been a phenomenal offseason. Yes, we can quibble with a move or two, but in the end, calling this anything but a success is dumb. Really, the people pushing these narratives really know better.
Well, at least they should. They should because it’s absurd to think adding a top five player in the game on Lindor on top of everything else they did is disappointing or a failure. It’s really beyond absurd.
This has been nothing short of a great offseason. Arguably, it’s among if not the best the Mets have ever had.
One of the things the New York Mets said they were prioritizing depth. That included starting pitching depth. When the Mets traded Steven Matz to the Toronto Blue Jays, they undid some of that.
Yes, we all know Matz had a maddening Mets career. While many expected a breakout in 2020 following a very good second half in 2019, it didn’t materialize. Honestly, we’ll never quite know how much of that was related to the truly bizarre nature of that season.
Regardless, Matz was needed depth. He also has shown himself to be better than the Mets other SP options.
As noted, Joey Lucchesi is really a two pitch pitcher who may belong in the bullpen. Also, David Peterson had extremely suspect peripherals indicating he needs more development time before he can truly be counted on as a fifth starter.
This shouldn’t be read to mean Matz was absolutely reliable or a sure thing. We know that’s not true. However, that’s double true for Lucchesi and Peterson. In these instances, there’s strength in numbers. It’s better to look for 1-2 of three to emerge than need two questionable pieces to pitch well.
That also moves pitchers like Franklyn Kilome, Corey Oswalt, and Jerad Eickhoff up the depth chart and much closer to pitching games for the Mets. The Mets didn’t want them starting games for the Mets in 2021, and now, they’re closer to doing so.
Obviously, the Mets could sign someone to ameliorate this. The problem on that front is it’s difficult to imagine getting a better pitcher with more upside for less than Matz’s $5.2 million. This is also contingent on the Mets actually getting that pitcher or pitchers.
If this was a move to clear payroll for a Trevor Bauer, you should question why Matz’s contract NEEDED to be moved. You also have to question if Bauer is really worth losing at least one of Michael Conforto, Francisco Lindor, Marcus Stroman, or Noah Syndergaard.
If this was about depth, it makes less sense as the Mets acquired what are really three right-handed relief prospects. Drawing your attention back to the summer of 2017, identifying right-handed relief prospects really isn’t Sandy Alderson’s strong suit.
Love or hate Matz, he was real depth. His work with Phil Regan could’ve paid off, and he could’ve been good. He might’ve emerged as a left-handed reliever in the bullpen.
Instead, the Mets opted to eschew starting pitching depth, put more reliance on unproven pitchers, and rely on Alderson to do what he does worst (trading for RHP relief prospects). Maybe this works out, but looking at the complete picture, this trade was a mistake.
This wasn’t the best week for the New New York Mets regime. Jared Porter’s text messages surfaced, and he had to be fired.
George Springer signed with the Toronto Blue Jays. Brad Hand signed with the Washington Nationals. The New York Yankees obtained Jameson Taillon from the Pittsburgh Pirates without having to part with a huge prospect cost.
Believe it or not, these has actually caused some anxiety and consternation amongst Mets fans.
https://twitter.com/sal_licata/status/1353504813468839936?s=21
Brutal…Mets needed to sign him https://t.co/oRIsNtgBZV
— Evan Roberts (@EvanRobertsWFAN) January 25, 2021
Seeing Mets fans beginning to lose their minds, it’s clear they’re forgetting just how vastly improved this Mets team is.
After all, the Mets obtained Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco from the Cleveland Indians. With that, in one fell swoop the Mets got the best player and pitcher any team will obtain this offseason.
The Mets have also signed Marcus Stroman, Trevor May, and James McCann. With those players, this is a vastly significant Mets team.
Keep in mind, many thought the 2020 Mets were a postseason team, and this team has made major upgrades:
- SP Rick Porcello -> Carlos Carrasco
- SP Michael Wacha -> Marcus Stroman
- RP Jared Hughes -> Trevor May
- C Wilson Ramos -> James McCann
- Andres Gimenez/Amed Rosario -> Francisco Lindor
That’s nothing to say of adding players like Jose Martinez and Joey Lucchesi. Already, this team is much deeper and stronger than the one the Mets put on the field in 2020, and for that matter, 2019.
Also, for the all the claims the Mets aren’t spending, people are ignoring just how much the Mets have already invested in the 2021 team. To date, the Mets have already added $61.3 million to the payroll.
Are people going to claim the Mets are being cheap when they’ve added what amounts to the Tampa Bay Rays entire payroll already? Consider that’s before the Mets are even done.
At the time no one say the Lindor trade happening. It went from rumored to confirmed in about an hour. Who knows what else is on the horizon.
Before jumping the gun and lambasting this front office like it’s one which has been run by the Wilpons, look at what they’re already done. Take time to realize they’re not done building this team.
There may come a time to criticize them, but it’s not today. It’s not when the Blue Jays gave Springer a way over the top contract, the Nationals had a closer job to offer the Mets didn’t, and the Yankees rolled the dice on a pitcher who has had two Tommy John surgeries.
Things have already improved immensely under Steve Cohen and Sandy Alderson, and they will continue to get better.
Once again, there are rumors the New York Mets are pursuing Trevor Bauer, and once again, there is a debate whether Bauer is worth it. While most of those debates focus on the personal, it rarely focuses on the budgetary.
Yes, we all know Steve Cohen has more money than the Wilpons, and he’s far more invested in winning. That said, even he has his limits, and he didn’t get this wealthy by just throwing money around like the Yankees when they see a Boston Red Sox player past their prime.
For the Mets, they have to best decide how to invest in players and the team. Looking at it from that perspective, you really have to wonder why the Mets would even bother contemplating signing Bauer.
MLB Trade Rumors projected Bauer could land a four year deal with a $32 million AAV. There have been claims Bauer could surpass Gerrit Cole‘s record $36 million AAV. Long story short it appears it’ll take approximately $30 million per year to sign Bauer.
Looking at the current Mets pitching staff, both Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard will be free agents. That means the Mets will need to make a decision whether they want to re-sign one, both, or neither.
With Stroman and Syndergaard missing 2020 for differing reasons, Zack Wheeler is an interesting comp. Entering free agency, Wheeler had a strong season-and-a-half. From June 1, 2018 through 2019, he had a 3.26 FIP, and there was the expectation he would improve.
As a result, entering his age 30 season, he received a five year deal with a $23.6 million AAV. Syndergaard, 27, and Stroman, 29, ate slightly younger than Wheeler when he hit free agency. Syndergaard (3.25) has a better FIP than Wheeler over his last two years, and Stroman’s (3.79) is worse.
Given that and a number of other factors, we could well see Stroman and Syndergaard sign deals with an AAV comparable to Wheeler. For the sake of using round numbers, let’s say it’ll take $25 million per year to extend both Stroman and Syndergaard.
In 2020, because Stroman accepted the qualifying offer, he will make $18.9 million. Syndergaard and the Mets settled his final year of arbitration at $9.7 million.
That means, if the Mets were looking to give Stroman a deal with a $25 million AAV, he’d get a $6.1 million raise. For Syndergaard, that’s a $15.3 million raise. Combined, that’s $21.4 million.
Looking at it purely from a pitching perspective, the Mets could give Bauer $30 million, or they can use $21.6 million to keep Stroman and Syndergaard. That’s $8.4 million which can then be used for a Brad Hand or another area of need.
Keep in mind, that $30 million doesn’t have to be used for starting pitching. In addition to Stroman and Syndergaard, the Mets will see Michael Conforto, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Seth Lugo, and maybe even Jacob deGrom hit free agency over the next few years.
Taking all that into account, you really have to wonder why the Mets would be pursuing Bauer. In reality, it’s a gross misallocation of resources. For what the Mets could give Bauer, they could keep two better ones and have money left over to further invest in the team.
Maybe the Mets still want Bauer, and maybe, they even sign him. Whatever the case, the Mets really have to make sure he’s worth all that comes with him, and given the expiring contracts, all that will likely go.
In reality, it’s far better to keep Stroman and Syndergaard than to sign Bauer. Hopefully, that’s the path the Mets pursue.
When evaluating what the New York Mets do this offseason, the team has to balance building a competitive 2021 roster with their ability to re-sign players. Part and parcel of that is building a sustained winner and not a typical Wilpon style one and done team.
As noted previously, the Mets have to evaluate their priories when looking to extend Michael Conforto, Francisco Lindor, Steven Matz, Marcus Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard. Keeping that quintet is going to be difficult.
That is going to become all the more complicated based on what the Mets continue to do this offseason. Players like Brad Hand and George Springer will be expensive. That affects the Mets ability to spend in 2021 and the ensuing years.
Sure, you can point out the Mets have money coming off the books at the end of the year. It’s a significant amount too with Jeurys Familia ($11.67), Dellin Betances ($6), and Brad Brach ($2) in addition to the aforementioned players.
However, as noted, the Mets have significant players who will require significant money. On top of that, after 2022, key players like Brandon Nimmo and Seth Lugo are free agents. Exacerbating that is Jacob deGrom having an opt out, and the Mets having a team option on Carlos Carrasco.
You really have to wonder how the Mets are able to keep this going without surpassing the luxury tax threshold. On the other hand, why are people so concerned when the Mets aren’t?
Jared Porter on luxury tax threshold, "No, it's not something we have to have a line in the sand on."
— Michael Mayer (@mikemayer22) January 8, 2021
At some point, everyone became concerned about the luxury tax threshold. Maybe, it was watching the Wilpons operate the Mets for a decade. Maybe, it was the rumors floating around the owners were going to limit the Mets ability to spend as a condition of his buying the team.
Whatever the case, there is only one man who has concern about the Mets spending, and that’s the man cutting the checks. At the end of the day, the only person who truly knows the Mets ability and willingness to exceed the threshold is their owner Steve Cohen.
That’s nothing to say of the expiring CBA. For all the hand wringing about the current constraints, those parameters are going to be readdressed and reset after this offseason. On that front, it makes little to no sense to get over wrought about provisions not set and not really dickered.
At the moment, the only people who should be concerned about the Mets ability and willingness to surpass the luxury tax threshold in 2021 and beyond is the Mets front office. Well, them and the National League East who has to contend with the sudden Mets juggernaut.
For the rest of us, the luxury tax threshold is merely a talking point with only guesses as to the Mets true intentions.
The New York Mets got their star in Francisco Lindor. The question now is how to best build the rest of the roster to help the Mets win the division.
There are still some areas which need to be addressed with third base being one of the bigger issues. While J.D. Davis is the incumbent, the Mets do not appear eager to put him there and rightfully so due to Davis’ career -19 DRS and -6 OAA make him completely unplayable there.
Looking forward, one thing Mets GM Jared Porter spoke about addressing run prevention. Another way to phrase that is putting an improved defensive team on the field.
One of the best ways to build the best defensive team would be for the Mets to sign reigning Gold Glover Kolten Wong to play second base. Simply put, Wong is the best defensive second baseman in the game which is why he’s won consecutive Gold Gloves.
Over the past three years, Wong’s 37 DRS is a significant step above the next best player. This is part of the reason why Wong has amassed the fifth best WAR over this timeframe over players whose primary positions over this timeframe has been second base.
Pairing Wong with Lindor would make this easily the best defensive tandem up the middle in the majors. For that matter, it could be better than Edgardo Alfonzo and Rey Ordoñez up the middle. That’s just how good they could be.
This would also be a huge turnaround for the current Mets. Since 2017, Mets second basemen have a -35 DRS, which is third worst in the majors. Over the same time period, their shortstops have had a -62 DRS, which is by far the worst in the majors.
All told, since the Mets last made the postseason, they’ve been the worst defensive team in the majors, and really, it’s not close. Adding Wong to Lindor would turn one of the team’s biggest weaknesses and make it a significant strength.
That means more ground balls become outs, and more double plays get turned. Marcus Stroman and his career 58.6 GB% and Carlos Carrasco with his career 48.6 GB% would become even more formidable pitchers. There’s also sinkerballer David Peterson who could benefit. Really, all Mets pitchers would benefit.
This means pitchers go deeper into games saving the bullpen. That keeps everyone stronger as they work their way through the season and hopefully head to the postseason.
Overall, adding Wong’s glove and league average bat (103 wRC+ since 2017) adds a dynamic to the Mets missing for 20 years. It gives the Mets superior up the middle defense helping the pitching staff and making the overall team better. As a result, signing Wong should now be a priority.
Now that Francisco Lindor is a member of the New York Mets, the team now has to try to find a way to sign the 27 year old superstar to a contract extension. This is the move the Los Angeles Dodgers made with Mookie Betts just last year.
Its also what the Mets once did with Keith Hernandez and Mike Piazza. Those moves resulted in a World Series, two pennants, two NL East titles, and four postseason appearances. Keeping Lindor can very well have the same impact on the Mets going forward.
However, it’s more than just Lindor. The Mets have key pieces of their core ready to hit free agency after this year.
First and foremost is Michael Conforto. In 2020, Conforto emerged as a true leader for this team and a potential future captain. Since moving past his shoulder injury, he’s re-established himself at the plate with a 135 OPS+ over the past two seasons.
Another homegrown Mets player who will be up for free agency is Noah Syndergaard, who will be returning from Tommy John at some point in 2021. Before suffering that injury, he was arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball.
From his debut in 2015 – 2019, Syndergaard was 10th best in the majors in FIP and WAR while having the second best hard hit rate. He’s also a pitcher who thrives on the big stage. He was the last Mets pitcher to win a postseason game, and in the last Mets postseason game he arguably out-pitched Madison Bumgarner over seven innings.
At 28, he’s still young and in his prime. This is the type of pitcher teams usually move to make a part of their franchise for as long as they possibly can.
Joining Syndergaard near the top of the Mets rotation and free agency is Marcus Stroman. Like Syndergaard, the 2017 World Baseball Classic MVP was born to pitch in the big game and on the biggest stage.
What truly stands out with Stroman is not just his positivity, but his tireless pursuit to improve as a pitcher. That is exactly the type of pitcher who not only tends to improve as years progress, but he’s the type of pitcher who has a positive impact on teammates.
New split-change I’ve been working on. @PitchingNinja @CodifyBaseball https://t.co/wXRgLKbpKo pic.twitter.com/CIYJKPdFb8
— Marcus Stroman (@STR0) December 29, 2020
In terms of advanced stats like FIP and WAR, he lines up as a number two starter. However, he’s someone who you trust against another team’s ace. He’s not good, and he’s not getting outworked by anyone.
Right there, the Mets have four extremely important pieces due for an extension. After 2020, their two best position players, and two of their best three starters hit the free agent market. If the Mets truly want to rival the Dodgers, they need to move to lock these pitchers up long term.
That’s easier said than done. Some of these players may want to test the free agent market. Steve Cohen’s pockets aren’t bottomless. There’s also the matter of other players on the team.
Steven Matz will also be a free agent. After the 2022 season, Brandon Nimmo and Seth Lugo will be free agents. Jacob deGrom can opt out of his contract after 2022, and the Mets have a team option on Carlos Carrasco.
Overall, the Mets have to make a number of extraordinarily important decisions on players on their roster over the ensuing two seasons. They need to balancing being able to extend those players with adding another huge contract.
By the looks of it, obtaining Lindor hasn’t completed the big moves for this Mets offseason. Rather, it means their work really has just begun.
With all due respect to Bud Harrelson and Rey Ordoñez, Jose Reyes is easily the best shortstop in Mets history. He’s the franchise leader in triples and stolen bases, and his name is scattered across the top ten rankings in team history.
Looking at WAR, he’s well ahead of the other shortstops, and he’s the 10th best player in Mets history. While it may take time to catch him, Francisco Lindor is well poised to surpass Reyes’ 27.9 WAR with the Mets.
Aside from the shortened 2020 season, Lindor is a player who never had below a 4.0 WAR. In fact, Lindor has never been below a 5.0 WAR when he’s been on the Opening Day roster in a 162 game season.
Keep in mind, that’s before Lindor even entered his prime. As he entered his prime, Lindor has been a 40+ double and 30+ homer player. That is in addition to playing Gold Glove caliber defense.
Assuming he holds true to that 5.0+ WAR level player, it’ll take Lindor approximately five seasons to surpass Reyes’ 27.9 WAR. At Lindor’s 30+ homer pace, he’ll surpass Reyes’ record for homers by a shortstop within four seasons.
That’s incredible to think. As a player, Reyes was one of the most exciting and dynamic players to ever wear the Mets uniform. He was a four time All-Star and to date the only Mets player to win a batting title.
The fact it could take Lindor approximately five seasons to surpass what Reyes did in 12 speaks to how phenomenal of a baseball player he is. In getting Lindor, the Mets are getting a future Hall of Famer. They are quite possibly getting the best player not named Tom Seaver or Mike Piazza to ever don a Mets uniform.
That’s the level of player Lindor is. If the Mets agree to an extension with him, Lindor should become the greatest shortstop in team history. He may also very well become the next Mets Hall of Famer, and we could see his 12 hanging next to Seaver’s 41 and Piazza’s 31.
The path is clear for Lindor to accomplish this and much more in a Mets uniform. The only thing standing in the way is a contract extension.
When the New York Mets pulled off that surprise blockbuster deal with the Cleveland Indians, they obtained Carlos Carrasco to be a mid-rotation starter. For the Mets, Carrasco is a perfect fit.
The 33 year old pitcher is on an extraordinarily team friendly deal. He’s owed just $12 million per year for each of the next two years with a third year option for $14 million. Historically, he’s outperformed that.
From 2016 – 2018, Carrasco averaged 15 wins a season posting a 3.39 ERA, 1.120 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9, and a 10.1 K/9. He averaged 6+ innings per start.
In terms of advanced stats, he had a 134 ERA+ and a 3.21 FIP. That FIP was the 10th best in baseball meaning he was pitching like a number one starter.
Carrasco struggler in 2019, but that was due in large part to his battling leukemia. Carrasco entered 2020 healthy, and he was great again with a 157 ERA+ and a 3.59 FIP. In essence, he was Carrasco.
Looking at it Carrasco being Carrasco is being a better pitcher than Bauer.
For that same 2016 – 2018 period, Bauer averaged 14 wins per season posting a 3.57 ERA, 1.257 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, and a 9.7 K/9. He also had a 125 ERA+ and a 3.45 FIP. Basically, across the board, Carrasco was better.
Now, if we shift the three year period to incorporate Bauer’s Cy Young winning 2020, things change a bit.
From 2018 – 2019, Bauer had a 3.18 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, and an 11.2 K/9. He had a 144 ERA+ and a 3.38 FIP. Across the board, these stats are better than Carrasco, and more to the point, Bauer showed a level in 2020 which Carrasco has never come close to reaching.
It should be noted that Bauer’s 2020 season came against really poor competition, and it was over the course of a 60 game season. Still, it did happen, and Bauer is four years younger.
The question is what is that worth.
With Carrasco, he’s being paid a relatively paltry $12 million per year. According to projections, Bauer is seeking to make north of $20 million more than that.
Yes, the Mets parted with players in the deal to get Carrasco and Francisco Lindor. Looking at that deal, Carrasco was almost treated as a throw-in. Of course, given his ability as a mid to top of rotation pitcher, you can never say he’s a throw-in.
And yet, the deal the Mets made to obtain him and Lindor was such a bargain you could perceive it as such. Taking that into account, Carrasco is a far better option than Bauer.
That goes double when you consider that $20 million difference can be utilized to try to extend Michael Conforto, Lindor, Noah Syndergaard, and Marcus Stroman.
Taking everything into account, Carrasco was a far superior option for the Mets than Bauer. Not only is Carrasco arguably a pitcher who will provide similar production, but he will also do so at a much cheaper price.
Getting Carrasco over Bauer means the Mets have the ability to keep their core as well as add to this team. Every way you break it down, obtaining Carrasco was a stroke of genius and a far, far better move than signing Bauer.
With the New York Mets making a mega-deal with the Cleveland Indians to obtain Francisco Lindor, the Mets understandably parted ways with Amed Rosario. It is disappointing to see Rosario go, and it is going to be hard to see him breakout with a new team.
Rosario initially came to the Mets after signing what was then the largest ever bonus given by the Mets to an international player. Rosario sure seemed to live up to the billing when he rose to the level of coming the top prospect in the game, and he made his Major League debut at the age of 21.
What was clear from the outset with Rosario was he was an exciting and hard working player. He was someone who readily lived up to his mantra of “Don’t Be Surprised, Be Ready.” No, he may not have lived up to his potential immediately, but in the beginning of his career, you saw a player who had the skills to be as exciting as there was in baseball:
From there, we saw growing pains, which is understandable given his age and the state of the organization. Through all of that, we saw a player who made significant improvements in his defense, and we saw a player who made strides in terms of his pitch recognition. Here and there, we saw real glimpses of the superstar we all thought he was going to be. For example, there was his five hit game against the Atlanta Braves in 2019:
It’s probably in large part due to the difficulties presented by COVID19 and the limitations of the shortened 60 game season, but unfortunately, Rosario didn’t truly get the opportunity to build on that 2020 season. He struggled for the most part, but to his credit, he didn’t take those struggles onto the field. Like a real veteran and mature player, he continued to make strides defensively. He would also show us the potential was still there. In many ways, his unique walk-off homer against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium serves as his good-bye present to Mets fans:
It wasn’t the first walk-off hit in his Mets career, but it would prove to be the last. As Mets fans, we had hoped to see more of those moments during the course of his career, but now, he is a member of the Cleveland Indians.
For Rosario, this is a great situation for him personally. He gets to go play for a Hall of Fame manger in Terry Francona as he starts to enter the prime of his career. He gets to move on from being a franchise savior to being just another player on the team being given room to grow, develop, and shine. In this situation, he may well grow to be the All-Star and potentially the superstar we all hoped he would one day be.
If that happens, all Mets fans should be happy for him. Rosario was as hard working and as exciting a player as there is. He tried everything he could do to be a great player, and each year, he made definitive improvements. He gave the Mets all he had, and that deserves nothing put our respect and admiration. Good luck to him, and hopefully, we will see him be all the things we all thought he could be.
Thank you Rosario, and good luck to you.