Curtis Granderson
Terry Collins is 100% correct that you worry about getting to the playoffs, and then you let the chips fall where they may. I know I’m in the minority on this, but I don’t want the Mets fighting for homefield in the NLDS.
The first reason is the rotation. We may not know who the fourth starter is, but we do know that Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard will get starts. We also know Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke will start Games 1 & 2. With Syndergaard’s home/road splits, I don’t want the Mets to have a reason to start Thor in Game 2 to keep him at Citi Field over Harvey. I like the idea of coming home and having a huge edge in the pitching matchup with Thor at home.
The second reason is the Mets offense. Kershaw and Greinke are hard enough to hit. I know the Mets will be hitting in the shadows at Dodger Stadium, but the Mets hitters are better on the road. Yoenis Cespedes hits .220/.283/.484 at Citi Field. Daniel Murphy is hitting .256/.296/.429. Curtis Granderson is hitting .236/.331/.415 (although his Dodger Stadium numbers are similar). Travis d’Arnaud is .252/.320/.461. The Mets offense travels better. Let the have a better shot at getting going early in the playoffs than struggle at home.
The final and most important reason is the importance of Games 3 & 4. The Mets would be coming home either down 0-2, tied 1-1, or up 2-0. If you’re down 0-2, there’s no place you’d rather be at home to stave off elimination. You’d also rather be home tied so you have a shot to go up 2-1 in front of a rabid fan base. If the Mets come home up 2-0, after beating Kershaw and Greinke, series over.
Therefore, I don’t think homefield advantage is something you don’t want to get. Just get the team healthy and ready for the NLDS.
The most important part of today’s game was Steven Matz‘s start because you want to determine if he should start in the NLDS.
Tonight, there was some good and some bad. Matz struck out a career high eight batters and looked strong early. However, he couldn’t hold onto a 3-1 lead. He only lasted 5.2 innings. He left the game with the game tied at 3-3.
Offensively, it seems the Mets bats woke up. It could’ve been just clearing their heads. It could’ve been seeing the Nationals losing as they took the field. It could’ve been the difference between Citi Field and The Great American Ballpark. Whatever it was, the Mets put six runs on the board.
Most impressively, the team responded to losing the lead by scoring three in the seventh. It started with Curtis Granderson scoring on a Daniel Murphy triple. This was followed by a Yoenis Cespedes RBI single, and a Lucas Duda RBI double, off a lefty to boot.
Itwas an impressive night for Murphy, Cespedes, and Duda. Murphy went 3-5, with a double, a triple, two runs scored, and the game winning RBI. Cespedes was 2-4 with a run and two RBI. Duda was 2-3 with 2 doubles, a walk, and two RBI.
The bullpen was solid with Erik Goeddel getting the win. Terry Collins smartly used Addison Reed in the seventh with the top of the Reds lineup due up. Hansel Robles allowed a homerun (more on that later). Jeurys Familia rebounded from last night to record his 42nd save preserving the Mets 6-4 win.
Getting back to Robles, there was an incident prior to the Jay Bruce homerun. During the at bat, Robles of course tried to quick pitch him since the bases were empty. The home plate umpire appeared to yell at him prompting Collins to come out of the dugout. Of course, Angel Hernandez tried to intervene from first base even though the home plate umpire and crew chief was there.
After everything, Robles allows the home run. With Robles’ quick pitch tendencies, this issue will arise again in the playoffs. If Robles wants to continue to quick pitch, he’s going to need to respond better.
On the bright side, this is going to be an issue because the Mets are going to go to the playoffs.
Right now, there are 14 Mets players who look to have a strong claim to a playoff spot with two players on the cusp of cracking into that group. Of these 16 players, only seven players have postseason experience. Here’s how they’ve fared:
- Juan Uribe (44 games) .204/.241/.338, 5 HR, 24 RBI
- David Wright (10 games) .216/.310/.378, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Kelly Johnson (8 games) .143/.250/.429, 0 HR, 0 RBI
- Yoenis Cespedes (10 games) .340/.395/.525, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Michael Cuddyer (22 games) .338/.372/.473, 2 HR, 8 RBI
- Curtis Granderson (36 games) .229/.333/.458, 6 HR, 17 RBI
- Eric Young, Jr. (2 games) .000/.000/.000
Now, these are short sample sizes, but outside of Cespedes, they’re not promising. Outside of Cespedes, the only player that has had success consistently in the playoffs is Cuddyer, who is a part time player.
If these stats hold true, and I’m not sure we can expect that, this means one of two things: (1) Cespedes will have to carry the Mets offensively; and/or (2) the Mets will need players, who haven’t been to the playoffs before, to perform.
The Royals last year showed you didn’t need postseason experience. They took out Jon Lester, who’s a terrific postseason pitcher. They swept an experienced Angels team in the ALDS. They then beat an Orioles team in the ALCS who had recently been in the playoffs.
The Royals mainly lost the World Series because they were beaten by a great manager in Bruce Bochy and an all-time postseason pitcher in Madison Bumgarner. As always, it comes down to pitching, and right now, the Mets have that in spades. As long as they get enough offense and Terry Collins doesn’t implode, the Mets can have a run just like the Royals did.
It appears like this October will feature low scoring, tight games. I think the Mets will be ready for it. Lets Go Mets!
Today was the first day that it truly felt like September. Everything was a little cooler, including the Mets bats.
Coming into tonight, Braves starter, Matt Wisler, had a 5.63 ERA and a 1.633 WHIP in 16 starts (and one relief appearance). Loosely translated, he’s been terrible. Naturally, the Mets could only muster five hits and a walk off of him while striking out eight times. Thankfully, one of those hits was a David Wright opposite field homerun. It wasn’t enough.
Logan Verrett cruised through his first four innings before hitting trouble in the fifth. He allowed a solo homerun to Jace Peterson and a three run shot to Hector Olivera (after Terry Collins ordered an IBB). Quickly, a 1-0 lead became a 4-0 deficit. Sean Gilmartin (two innings) and Hansel Robles pitched well to keep the Mets in the game into the eighth.
The Mets would rally in the eighth with bases loaded and one out. Michael Cuddyer, pinch hitting for Lucas Duda (because, egad, a lefty was on the mound), hit a sac fly scoring Curtis Granderson, who started the rally with a leadoff walk. Wilmer Flores [standing ovation] grounded out to shortstop to end the rally. Tyler Clippard would get roughed up in the ninth for two runs. Ultimately, the Mets would lose 6-2.
If you’re looking for a highlight, other than the Wright opposite field homerun, it was Michael Conforto‘s defense. He threw out A.J. Pierzynski trying to stretch a single into a double after a Flores’ misplay on a ball in the Bermuda Triangle. He also had a nice diving stop in the seventh.
Mets have now lost three of four, and I’m still not worried. Their division lead remains 6.5 games. They’ll snap out of this cold spell soon. If they time it right, they’ll be hot heading I to October.
I’m aware of the MVP talk currently surrounding Yoenis Cespedes. He’s been incredible, but he’s not the MVP of the National League. He can be the Player of the Week. He can be the Player of the Month. He’s not the MVP. He’s not even the Mets MVP. That’s Curtis Granderson.
He’s having a terrific season. He leads the league in games played. He has a triple slash line of .285/.365/.455. For traditionalists, he has 23 homers and 64 RBI from the leadoff spot. He has a 4.8 WAR, which is 10th in the NL and fourth among outfielders. He’s also the ready the Mets kept it together long enough for Sandy Alderdon to make the necessary deals. Overall, there is no Cespedes without Granderson.
The Mets were once a M*A*S*H* unit with a historically bad offense. Granderson was the only one doing anything. There was talk of moving him out of the leadoff spot, but that was irrelevant because there were never anyone at base. Well, the Mets have players now and Granderson is still contributing:
Curtis Granderson entered June 4 hitting .225
Since then
.278/.382/.509
42 extra-base hits in 87 games.
That's pretty good.
— Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) September 14, 2015
Without a healthy and productive Granderson, the Mets would win fewer games, and it’s possible they’re not in a position to trade for Cespedes. So, if you love Cespedes, you should love Granderson just as much.
So overall, Granderson helped the Mets tread water until help arrived. Cespedes is doing all of this in a Mets uniform due to Carlos Gomez and his hip as well as Granderson’s play. That’s why he’s the team MVP this year.
On another note, he’s a good guy. He was nominated for the 2015 Marvin Miller Award (he’s won before), which is an award that recognizes charitable actions and on the field play. He’s also a nominee this year for the Roberto Clemente Award for his off the field contributions. No, this shouldn’t factor into the fictional 2015 Mets MVP Award, but it is something I wanted to mention.
So while we all agree Cespedes has been amazing, Granderson is the true Mets MVP.
This was the Curtis Granderson and Yoenis Cespedes Show. With the offense scuffling tonight, they accounted for four of the Mets five runs. It showed why Cespedes receives the MVP talk while Granderson is truly the Mets’ MVP.
In the third, Granderson walked and scored on a Cespedes double. In the fifth, Granderson scored on a balk after being moved to second on a Cespedes single and Daniel Murphy ground out (he was absolutely robbed of an RBI double by Freddie Freeman. He scored for the last time on a laser homerun by Cespedes in the ninth.
Even though Steven Matz looked to be fitting himself and an inconsistent umpire, he only allowed one earned run in five innings. While Matz may not have been great, it was impressive he was able to get though five innings.
Erik Goeddel pitched a 1-2-3 sixth despite letting up two deep fly balls. Addison Reed pitched a 1-2-3 seventh, further showing he’s the seventh inning guy. Tyler Clippard did his usual good work in the eighth. Jeurys Familia recorded his 40th save securing the 5-1 win.
The only concern from the game was Murphy’s leg. He probably would’ve been safe on Freeman’s play if he was able to run full speed. As Keith Hernandez pointed out, Murphy seemed to be slow and since after his seventh inning single. Terry Collins may need to find him a couple of more days.
Overall, it was an ugly win, but a win nevertheless. It was good enough to increase the lead to 8.5 games.
Before the game, the Braves had a nice ceremony commemorating 9/11. They even showed the Mike Piazza homerun, which happened against them. They also wore the First Responder caps in batting practice, which they will auction off for charity. While I’ll criticize the Mets players and MLB, I’ll compliment the Braves here.
The Braves also had a wonderful rendition of “God Bless America.” They represented baseball and the country well.
The Nationals resurgence was lead by the first overall picks Steven Strasburg and Bryce Harper. They were brilliant tonight. Strasburg went 7.1 innings with three earned and 13 Ks. The Mets barely touched him in the first seven innings. Harper went 3-4 with all three Nationals run scored on a double and two homers. It wasn’t enough.
For the third straight night, the Mets rallied late to abuse the Nationals bullpen. For a while, it seemed that Travis d’Arnaud‘s second inning solo homer was all the Mets were going to get. Then in the eighth, Kelly Johnson pinch hit for Wilmer Flores [standing ovation], and hit a pinch hit homer to tie the game at 2-2. After a Curtis Granderson single, Strasburg was lifted.
Matt Williams then brought on Drew Storen, who was completely ineffective in this series. Sure enough, he gave up the go-ahead homerun to Yoenis Cespedes. I know Cespedes isn’t a true MVP candidate, but his play has been nothing short of a miracle for the Mets.
Harper hit his second homer in the eighth, and the Mets tacked on a run in the ninth to make the final score 5-3. It was great to see deGrom get back on track and get the win. He had a good game with 7.0 innings, nine Ks, and only two earned.
It was Mets second straight sweep of the Nationals. With the Mets now up seven in the NL East, it’s over. The Mets will win the division. These past three games were nothing short of amazing. They could’ve/should’ve lost all three, but they showed a resolve that championship teams show. Now they can begin rating their pitchers to gear up for October.
It’s been seven years since we could say that. Only this time, our pitching is healthy.
Personally, I love Yoenis Cespedes, warts and all. I even make sure to celebrate Cespedes. That, however does not make him the NL MVP, no matter what anyone says.
I realize his numbers with the Mets are terrific. He is hitting .307/.354/.660 in 35 games. That’s the key there. It’s only 35 games. The Mets have played 138 games, or 25% of the Mets season. Even if Cespedes plays in all remaining 24 games, he will only play in 59 total games or 36% of the season with the Mets. It’s like saying the first 100 games didn’t count. We know they did.
In order to qualify for stats like batting average, on base percentage, and slugging, a batter needs 502 plate appearances. Right now, Cespedes sits at 164. He will get nowhere near qualifying. Even if he qualified, he would rank 9th in batting average (tying him with David Peralta) and19th in OBP (tying him with Brandon Belt). His .660 slugging would rank first, and his OPS would rank him third. One small slump and these numbers plummet as 164 plate appearances is a small sample size making these percentage based stats wildly variable.
With respect to his other stats, we can only look at his numbers in the NL. His 32 runs scored are 116th in the NL, or 69 behind league leader Bryce Harper. His 47 hits are 151th in the NL, or 125 behind league leader Dee Gordon. His 9 doubles are 153th in the NL, or 30 behind league leader Todd Frazier. His 3 triples are 39th in the NL, or 6 behind Peralta. His 13 homeruns are 48th in the NL, or 24 behind league leader Nolan Arenado. His 34 RBIs are 105th in the NL, or 72 behind league leader Arenado.
For more sabermetrically friendly stats, Cespedes WAR is 1.7. This stat is important because even voters like Jon Heyman look at WAR. Cespedes is tied for 63rd with players like Nick Markakis. He’s far behind Harper and his league leading 8.7 WAR.
Now, there is a Met, who is Top Ten in WAR. He’s Curtis Granderson, who used to be universally acknowledged as the Mets MVP. If you want a Met to garner votes, he’s the guy. Sure, his candidacy falls short, but so does Cespedes’.
This Cespedes ride has been amazing, but let’s not make this more than what it is. He’s been a spark plug, but he’s not the NL MVP. He’s not even the Mets MVP, that’s Granderson.
After last night’s big homerun, I wanted to write a post about Kirk Nieuwenhuis‘ chances of making the postseason roster. I then realized such conversation is premature without first discussing who is definitely going to be on the roster, and what the roster needs will be.
Please note this list assumes all injured players will be healed and ready for the playoffs. And yes, I’m taking Matt Harvey at his word. So without further ado, here’s my best approximation:
Position Players
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Kevin Plawecki
- Lucas Duda
- Wilmer Flores
- Daniel Murphy
- Ruben Tejada
- Juan Uribe
- David Wright
- Kelly Johnson
- Yoenis Cespedes
- Michael Cuddyer
- Curtis Granderson
- Juan Lagares
- Michael Conforto
Pitchers
- Matt Harvey
- Jacob deGrom
- Bartolo Colon
- Noah Syndergaard
- Jeurys Familia
- Tyler Clippard
- Addison Reed
- Hansel Robles
While typically an MLB team carries 12 pitchers, that number is usually reduced to 11 relievers. That means there’s three spots open for pitchers like Sean Gilmartin, Dario Alvarez, Carlos Torres (if healthy), Erik Goeddel, Logan Verrett, Jon Niese, and of course Steven Matz. Notice, I did not put Bobby Parnell and Eric O’Flaherty on the list. If all the position players make the list, there’s only room for 11 pitchers anyway.
With an injury, like Cuddyer’s, the decision will come down between Nieuwenhuis, Eric Young, Jr., and yes, Eric Campbell.
The Mets have tough decisions to make. They have about a month of tryouts. So far, Gilmartin, Alvarez, and Nieuwenhuis have made their cases. Other players have their opportunities as well. It’s nice having this conversation instead of talking about next year.
Roc Nation initiated talks with the Mets to eliminate the five day window for the Mets to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes after the World Series. I think it’s important to note that it was Roc Nation and not the Mets who initiated these discussions because it further signals that he’s not returning to Flushing.
The Contract
We have heard that Cespedes wanted a $120 – 150 million contract when he came to the Mets. His play with the Mets and his popularity with the fans is only going to drive that price tag higher.
Furthermore, Sandy Alderson already had an aversion to second generation contracts like the one Cespedes is going to receive. I imagine his position has only stiffened with David Wright and his spinal stenosis.
Outfield Depth
I think we can all agree that Michael Conforto needs to play everyday next year. That locks down LF. Curtis Granderson still had two years and $31 million remaining on his contract. Between that and his good year this year, it means he’s playing RF next year. That locks up the corner OF without even considering Michael Cuddyer and the $12.5 million he’s due next year.
That leaves CF. The Mets have presumably the best defensive CF in the game in Juan Lagares. He has three years and $20 million left on his contract. I can’t imagine the Mets are going to make him a bench player after one poor, injury plagued year.
Additionally, it should be added Cespedes has not been a good CF in his career. In fact, he’s been quite bad. True, it appears he’s playing a capable CF with the Mets. However, I’d like to put my faith in two and a half years worth of data over a little more than one month.
I will acknowledge that the Mets will play him in the unlikely event he re-signs. However, I doubt that will happen as the Mets already have a full OF and needs at SS, the bullpen, the bench, and potentially second base.
The Warts
Look, I love Cespedes as much as the next Mets fan, but that doesn’t mean you should overlook some of his issues.
First, he doesn’t get on base. His career .OBP is a paltry .320. Second, he’s not always engaged defensively, and he has some bad habits. This is something you overlook for a two month rental that’s mashing the ball. For a guy with a massive contract, the fans will eviscerate him. I’d rather not see it get to that point. I’d rather Mets fans enjoy the ride.
Conclusion
There are many reasons not to sign Cespedes. For $150 million, I’m sure the Mets agree. So, let’s enjoy what has been an amazing year. Let’s continue witnessing this Cespedes Miracle and enjoy it for as long as it goes.