Musings

Matthew Allan Is Mets Best Prospect

The consensus of people who have done this much longer and better is Francisco Alvarez supplanted Ronny Mauricio as the Mets top prospect. The consensus seems to be they are the top two in the system.

That said, at least here, Matthew Allan should be considered the Mets top prospect. We’re seeing and hearing many of the reasons why this Spring Training.

Before Spring Training, Allan had been at the Mets alternate site at Brooklyn. That’s also where he pitched for the 2019 New York-Penn League Champions.

In that 2019 season, he made a combined six appearances (five starts) for the GCL Mets and Brooklyn. He was 1-0 with a 2.61 ERA, 1.452 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9, and a 12.2 K/9.

In the NYPL postseason, he was dominant pitching out of the bullpen. In two games, he pitched 5.0 innings retiring all 15 batters he faced. That included him pitching three innings and picking up the win in the clincher.

In those games, we saw the repertoire and poise which led the Mets to implement their draft strategy to sign him. As per MLB Pipeline, he had a mid to high 90s fastball which he combined with an excellent curve and a change that was a work in progress. He had the size and delivery which portends success as a starter.

As noted by Jacob Resnick of SNY above, Allan improved the change last year. It should come as no surprise that came after getting to work with Jacob deGrom during part of the COVID shutdown last year. In that time, he got to learn from deGrom much in the same way deGrom once got to learn from Johan Santana.

This past offseason, Allan again went to Stetson University to work with deGrom and fellow Stetson alum catcher Patrick Mazeika.

Allan had the opportunity to speak to and learn from the best pitcher in the game. As noted, it helped lead to an improved change. It may also help him in terms of the mental side of the game and preparation. Really with deGrom encouraging him to wear him out with questions, Allan had a real opportunity to hone his craft.

That continued in Spring Training when Allan got to work not only with deGrom but also Marcus Stroman.

With Stroman, Allan discussed grips as well as the mental side of the game. Many forget Stroman is a real student of the game, and he’s someone who works harder than anyone to find ways to improve and get batters out. As noted by Allan, Stroman was genuine in helping him improve as a pitcher.

That’s a huge reason why Allan should be considered the Mets best prospect. Yes, he certainly has the natural talent and pure stuff to earn that consideration. However, it’s more than that.

Allan, himself, is working hard and striving to improve. He’s in a very fortunate situation where he has had the opportunity and will continue to have the opportunity to get mentored by deGrom and Stroman.

Taking everything into account, it’s not just Allan’s change which will make considerable strides. He should also in every aspect of his game. Seeing how he and others are investing in him, he has real top of the rotation potential, and seeing his progress that may come far sooner than originally anticipated.

Overall, it’s very fair to consider Alvarez and Mauricio as the Mets best prospects. Still, seeing Allan’s improvement, maturity, and natural talent, he should probably be considered a step ahead thereby making him the Mets best prospect.

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Mets Need To Play Luis Guillorme Everyday

Yet again, Luis Guillorme made a terrific defensive play. It’s what he does, and aside from possibly Francisco Lindor, he plays defense far better than anyone on the New York Mets.

When you see plays like this and all the plays Guillorme can make, there should be no doubt about playing him everyday. Not only is Guillorme a real asset with his defense, he’s also a difference maker.

At least defensively, Guillorme and Lindor would combine to be one of, if not the best middle infields in all of baseball. That would be of vital importance to a Mets pitching staff who generates a large number of ground balls.

On that front, it’s important to note Pete Alonso is a bad first baseman. His -7 DRS since his MLB debut is the second worst. His -9 OAA is one of the worst too. Having Guillorme at second would help offset that.

He’d do that much better than Jeff McNeil. McNeil is good at second with a 1 DRS. He’s just not on Guillorme’s par. That’s not a slight to McNeil in the least, but rather, an acknowledgment of just how good Guillorme is defensively.

Keep in mind, Guillorme is not just a glove. He can hit too.

No, Guillorme is not a 30 home run hitter. He’s not even half that. Still, in big moments, he can hit one out:

Guillorme has seen his wRC+ increase in each one of his MLB seasons. Part of the reason is he’s been steadily increasing. He projects to be a near league average. That’s more than alright for an eighth place hitter with his glove.

That goes double when the Mets are already sacrificing defense at first, third, left, and center. A player in just for defense makes more than enough sense for a team shoe-horning in bats and has a ground ball staff.

All told, Guillorme is an excellent defender who can hit. He’s going to offset Alonso’s defense on the right side while creating a dynamic double play duo with Lindor.

All told, Guillorme is exactly what the Mets need at second, and he’s a better all strong player than he gets credit. As such, he should be put in the Opening Day lineup and on each of the ensuing games.

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Mets Third Base Dilemma

Simply put, third base was the biggest hole the New York Mets had this offseason, and they did nothing to address it. Now, they’re scrambling.

The incumbent, J.D. Davis, is the worst defensive player in baseball. Not hyperbole, his DRS is literally the worst since joining the Mets.

With the Mets not improving, they’re starting to sell he’s improved there. They even point to Francisco Lindor working with him. There are two problems to this.

First, it’s useless talking point we hear every Spring akin to “best shape of their life.” Second, Davis is still quite bad in the videos promoting his defense.

Really, he can’t play the position, and the Mets need to stop trying to make it work. The problem is if not Davis, then who?

Yes, the answer is literally anyone else on the team would be better, but that’s also not a good answer. One early talking point is the idea of a Davis platoon with the left-handed hitting Jonathan Villar.

Villar, too, is a bad defender. Over the last two years, he has a -12 DRS in the middle of the infield. The counter-argument is third may be an easier position to play and a better fit for him.

However, that point ignores the disaster Jose Reyes was at third. Players in defensive decline just don’t automatically stem the tide and thrive at third. That’s an important consideration for a player in Villar who hasn’t played there since 2016. In that year, he played 346.2 innings there and had a -5 DRS.

So, looking at it, we return to Jeff McNeil, a player who has actually been the Opening Day starter there the last two seasons. He also has a career 5 DRS and 3 OAA there in his career.

Yes, he had a tough stretch there last year, and he had a tough Spring Training game. Even with that, he’s still been FAR SUPERIOR than the players who are under consideration for third. If you couple that with the ability to put Luis Guillorme and his Gold Glove caliber defense at second, it’s hard to argue there’s a better option.

The only problem is the Mets seem to be reluctant to both put McNeil at third and to play Guillorme everyday. It’s a bizarre thought process with zero sound reasoning given the construction of this roster.

Whatever the case, this is how the Mets built their team. It’s imperative they put their best players on the field in the best position to succeed and help the pitching staff who induces a lot of grounders.

Short of the Mets making that trade for a third baseman, they’re stuck trying to figure out a dilemma they failed to address this offseason. Rather than push sunk costs, lost cases, and poor thought processes, they need to do what helps them win in 2021.

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Reaction To Jeff McNeil Rough Day at Third

In his first Spring Training start at third base, Jeff McNeil struggled. He had three errors – a missed catch, a missed grounder, and a bad throw.

The complete overreaction to this should be a really big yawn.

As reported by Mike Puma of the New York Post, the Mets may not be quite reacting that way. In fact, Puma reports J.D. Davis and Jonathan Villar will get the bulk of playing time at third.

If true, it’s a bad plan. Davis is the worst third baseman in the game. Villar is a poor defender who last played third in 2016. Looking at it, McNeil is the Mets best defensive third baseman with a 5 DRS.

McNeil at third would also open up more playing time for Luis Guillorme. If nothing else, Guillorme is a very good defender. He’s also been making significant strides offensively.

Guillorme should ideally start at second where he is Gold Glove caliber. That would move McNeil to third. Notably, Luis Rojas said McNeil has “looked well at third base in the past.” He will again if given the opportunity.

Overall, Guillorme at second with McNeil at third remains the Mets best possible infield. As such, the team should not overreact to one poor day.

The Mets need to be better than that. They need to roll their eyes and do what’s right for the team. Whatever they decide, they need to move forward with their best team and lineup.

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Theo Epstein Should Have No Place In Baseball

One day, Cooperstown is going to come calling for Theo Epstein. After all, he was the leader for two franchises who broke curses.

Epstein was the GM for the 2004 Boston Red Sox who won a World Series for the first time in 86 years. Winning with the Red Sox apparently wasn’t challenging enough for him.

No, Epstein took over as the President of Baseball Operations for the Chicago Cubs. Whereas with the Red Sox he fortified an already great roster, he built the Cubs from the bottom up to lead them to their first World Series title in 108 years.

Now, that he’s stepped aside, everyone wants him in another important role. As jobs open up, more and more people will push for him.

Currently, he’s a consultant for Major League Baseball. There’s a push for many to name him the next commissioner. There was a push for the Mets to hire him, and there was an article from Larry Stone of the Seattle Times about how the Seattle Mariners need to hire Epstein in the wake of the Kevin Mather fallout.

There’s a certain irony in the push for anyone to hire Epstein right now, as he is emblematic of many of the problems baseball currently faces.

In terms of the Mariners, Mather “re-signed” partially as a result of his admitting to service time manipulation of Jarred Kelenic and other prospects. In some ways, Epstein is really the worst hire.

With the Cubs, Epstein dealt with the same issues with Kris Bryant. Like the Mariners intended to do with Kelenic, the team didn’t call up Bryant until they could gain another year of control.

That led to Bryant filing a grievance, which he eventually lost. He also rejected numerous attempts to sign a contract extension with the team.

In terms of the Mets, they’re still dealing with the fallout of the Mickey Callaway and Jared Porter harassment claims. Notably, the Porter harassment didn’t occur when he was with the Mets. Rather, it happened when he was with the Cubs.

As we learned, the Cubs first advised the victim to not go further with the complaint. Instead, they advised her to try to leverage her position. On multiple occasions, they followed up to ensure there would be no embarrassing law suit.

This was somewhat emblematic of how little regard the Cubs held women. In addition to Porter, the Cubs traded for Aroldis Chapman, and they tendered Addison Russell a contract.

Seeing what happened under his leadership, it’s clear he has no place in baseball right now. He’s not the guy to clean up the problems. Rather, he’s the guy who helped create, and at a minimum, led organizations who actively disregarded and cover-up problems.

Unless we get an investigation and answers to very pointed questions, Epstein should not return to any MLB front office in any role. He’s created and perpetuated problems.

There may come a time for his return to baseball, but that time has not yet arrived. It can’t until he had

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Too Soon For Concerns Over Mets Bullpen

We can and should argue the New York Mets should’ve done more to address the bullpen. That said, they didn’t, and we have to see how it shakes out.

On days like the Spring Training game against the Washington Nationals, you worry. Neither Jeurys Familia nor Dellin Betances was good. With respect to the former, Sandy Alderson was noticeably annoyed with his performance.

Familia walked two in a scoreless and hitless inning. Betances also walked two, but he wasn’t nearly as lucky or effective. Betances allowed four runs on two hits and two walks. He yielded a homer to Ryan Zimmerman, who didn’t play last year due to COVID19 concerns.

Neither pitcher struck out a batter.

For Familia, the walks are especially concerning. In his prime, he walked that fine line, but now that he’s older, he’s been falling off the cliff. Frankly, he’s walking far too many batters to be reliable and effective.

The situation is similar for Betances, but at least with Familia, his velocity is there. While it’s usually not there this early for Betances, it seems more of a fait accompli it’s not returning considering it hasn’t been there for two years now.

To wit, Betances is working to adapt to be a more effective pitcher without the velocity.

For both Familia and Betances, it’s clear they both had a lot to work on after last year. That’s just the thing. They’re still working on things. It’s also just their first Spring outings.

Opening Day is still about a month away giving both pitchers time to improve and hone things. Certainly, they can also work on things in-season.

They may succeed, and they may not. They may prove to be nothing more than middle relief rather than the high leverage relievers they once were.

There’s an important consideration there. No one said they need to pitch the seventh or eighth inning. For that, the Mets already have Trevor May and will be getting Seth Lugo back at some point before that All-Star Break.

There’s talented young arms behind them. Drew Smith is pushing his way to the majors, and Miguel Castro will be on the roster. He may just be THIS CLOSE to a breakout too.

Robert Gsellman has shown flashes of brilliance when used judiciously in the pen. Joey Lucchesi profiles as a potential top end reliever, and who knows what Jordan Yamamoto could do there if given the chance. That’s nothing to say of the veterans like Tommy Hunter who are fighting for a job.

The overriding point is the talent is here, and it doesn’t need to be Familia and Betances back to their dominant forms for this bullpen to succeed. What the Mets need is for Jeremy Hefner to get through to these relievers, the front office to provide the coaching staff with useful data, and for Luis Rojas to put them all in a position to succeed.

Overall, it’s just way too sook to freak out about the bullpen. It may still be great. It may also falter. The thing is we don’t know which direction it will go based on one Spring Training game. In fact, we may not really know until a month into the season.

So just calm down, and let’s see how this all shakes out.

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ESPN Broadcast Was Fine For Spring Training

If you had the opportunity to watch the Spring Training matchup between the New York Mets and Washington Nationals, we’ll have to assume you were in Port St. Lucie. That assumption was made because not much of the game was actually televised.

Obviously, that’s an exaggeration. Alliteration was made here because ESPN made a very concerted effort to conduct a number of interviews rather than focus on the game action.

That was apparent when David Peterson was fighting it in the first inning, and the focus wasn’t on him or the game. Instead, Juan Soto was taking up much of the attention and screen.

That was a theme throughout the game. The announcers mostly did interviews. For the Mets, perhaps the most notable was Sandy Alderson, who was audibly frustrated while Jeurys Familia was struggling.

That was the obvious intention of the broadcast. They were talking baseball, and they were giving both teams an opportunity to introduce themselves to the viewers.

For their part, managers Luis Rojas and Dave Martinez were insightful. In terms of Rojas, his talking about how Francisco Lindor is not only a leader but also a teacher gave us a unique and fascinating look at the Mets new superstar.

There was also sentimental discussion about the legends who passed including Hank Aaron and Tom Seaver. Touching moments included Eduardo Perez talking about Joe Morgan, and Tim Kurkjian talking about Shannon Forde.

Again, not much discussion about the game. It did happen, but not really. If this was a regular season game, it would’ve been really annoying. However, even with issues ESPN has with their telecasts, this wasn’t a regular season game.

This was a Spring Training game. Much like they did last year, ESPN used it as an opportunity to help showcase personalities to help grow the game. It was EXTREMELY effective last year with it being the first step in Dominic Smith becoming not just a fan favorite, but also his becoming a more prominent player.

If you want to pick nits, the only people tuning into these games are the diehards who want to see the players. Still, there are others who throw it on just to watch something, and a telecast like this introduced them to some of the best players in the game.

For many, this broadcast didn’t work, and that’s fine. What matters is ESPN tried something to try to grow the game, and attempts like that is a good thing. We need more of that, and Spring Training is the perfect time to try that.

Overall, this worked last year, but it didn’t really work this year. Let’s see how it works in 2022 and beyond. More importantly, let’s see if this can help grow the game because at the end of the day, that’s what they’re trying to do.

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Dominic Smith Defense May Be Key To 2021 Season

As Sandy Alderson is wont to do, the New York Mets are going to stick a first baseman in left due to his offense. That means Dominic Smith, the team’s best defensive first baseman, will be out there.

In terms of offense, Smith’s bat definitely plays in left. In 2021, he was the sixth best hitter in all of baseball. Since 2020, he’s had a 148 wRC+. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify, that would’ve ranked him behind only Juan Soto and Christian Yelich.

Seeing that, you certainly understand the impetus to keep him in the lineup. However, to truly justify that, he’s going to have to play well defensively, especially when he’s playing behind J.D. Davis, who is the worst defensive third baseman in all of baseball.

The numbers are a mixed bag for Smith’s ability to actually play left. Since 2019, he has a – 1 DRS. He also has a -5 OAA and a -4.1 UZR. While there has been progress on all three metrics for him, overall, with him playing 380.1 innings out there, those numbers are not very good.

Part of the issue is Smith really doesn’t have the speed to play the outfield. His sprint speed is 26.0+ ft/sec. That rates among the worst at the position. As an aside, that puts him right in line with Soto, who like Smith, appears like he belongs at first.

Despite the poor defensive numbers, there is some legitimate hope for Smith in left.

First and foremost, Smith entered this season knowing he’s going to be the left fielder. That permitted him to spend months preparing to play the position. That’s an advantage he really had not previously had in his career.

Another benefit is Luis Rojas. Rojas had previously worked with Jeff McNeil to help him learn left on the fly, and McNeil would be an All-Star. Rojas is an excellent coach who has previously worked with Smith.

One benefit Rojas and Smith will have this year is better information. Since buying the team, Steve Cohen has made a concerted effort to beef up the analytics department. On that note, Brandon Nimmo spoke about how it will impact defensive positioning.

On top of all that, we have seen Smith is a hard worker who does everything he can to succeed. There’s no doubt he’s done all he could’ve done to make sure he won’t be a question mark or liability in left this year.

Despite that, there still remains a reasonable debate whether Smith can adequately defend left this year. As we see, the numbers all point towards no, but from an intangibles standpoint, no one should be discounting Smith.

In the end, the only thing we know is Smith did everything he could’ve done to be a good left fielder. Time will tell if he actually became one or can become one during the season.

The Mets are going to need it because there are too many players playing out of position already. Someone is going to have to establish themselves and stabilize the defense. Hopefully, that player can be Smith.

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Brodie Van Wagenen’s Work On Display In 2021 Spring Training

This is the first week of Spring Training, and we are seeing some of the moves Brodie Van Wagenen made on full display. First up was Jarred Kelenic:

Then, we had Simeon Woods Richardson on the mound striking batters out:

Both players are Top 100 prospects he tried to tell is were really five years away or more. As a result, he felt justified trading them in what was nothing short of a grift to strip the future down in an attempt to win before selling.

Van Wagenen traded far more than them, and we will see many of the players he traded away play in the majors in 2021. They will also be impact players. That’s just something to keep in mind while the Mets contend this year and he and Robinson Cano will be out of baseball.

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Jeff McNeil Was A Different Hitter

In the New York Mets first Spring Training game, Jeff McNeil homered off of Framber Valdez. That was one of the reasons Luis Rojas spoke about McNeil’s untapped power.

Specifically, Rojas said McNeil is a 20-30 homer guy. That may come as a big surprise to Mets fans who have seen McNeil take an Ichiro Suzuki approach by being aggressive at the plate and spraying the ball all across the field to rack up base hits.

However, Rojas has known a different McNeil at the plate. Back in 2018 when Rojas was the manager of the Binghamton Rumble Ponies, he saw McNeil develop as a power hitter.

In 57 games for the Rumble Ponies, McNeil hit .327/.402/.626 with 16 doubles, three triples, 14 homers, and 43 RBI. Extrapolated over a 162 season, that’s 45 doubles, nine triples, 40 homers, and 122 RBI.

That’s the type of hitter McNeil was when people first took notice of him and began clamoring for the Mets to call him up to the majors.

As we know, McNeil has had a different approach in the majors. Instead of looking to drive the ball, he looked to make contact. It was quite successful, and so far, it’s continued to be successful. However, that doesn’t mean he can’t be a power hitter or at least someone who hits for more power.

Right now, it’s difficult to ascertain why McNeil made the switch from a middle of the order type of bat to a table setter. What we do know is there are certain limitations to his swing at everything approach. Essentially, he needs a high BABIP (which he has maintained), and he needs to continue finding holes in an era of advanced data and shifting.

Unlike most hitters who have that approach, McNeil can change. He can be like Francisco Lindor who averaged 42 doubles and 34 homers between 2017 – 2019. Of course, to do that, McNeil has to once again shift his approach.

Maybe that will depend on where he hits in the lineup. It may also depend on the deadened ball. Mostly, it depends on what McNeil wants to do at the plate.

If he wants to continue his current approach, great. It’s led to him being an All-Star. If not, that’s great too as he’s shown he can hit for power.

Overall, McNeil has shown the ability to adapt and thrive. He hit for power to get to the majors, and once there, he hit to get on baseball. Judging from his bat control, he can shift back to hitting for power.

We know he can. The only question is whether he will. Whatever the case, McNeil should thrive this year and in the ensuing years.

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