Musings

José Butto Stepping Up For Mets

The New York Mets have had too many starting pitching injuries to start the season. In fact, at the moment, Kodai Senga is all that remains from their projected Opening Day rotation.

Justin Verlander and José Quintana started the year on the IL. Verlander is missing over a month, and Quintana is out until around the All-Star Break if not longer. Carlos Carrasco has an elbow injury, and there is a very real possibility he could be done for the season if not for his career.

Max Scherzer needed to have an extra day before his last start, and then he was suspended. Our good friend David Cone would show why the suspension was garbage, but nevertheless, Scherzer was suspended for 10 games.

As we know, this has pushed David Peterson and Tylor Megill into the rotation. That wasn’t a big deal as both were good starters for the Mets 101 team last season. Joey Lucchesi also had a history of being a capable Major League starter, so while the Mets may not have wanted him in the rotation, his needing to start wasn’t an issue.

The issue was with José Butto being pushed into the rotation.

Last season, Butto was thrust into the rotation, and the results were ugly. In his lone start, he last just four innings allowing seven runs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Alec Bohm really got the best of him hitting two homers. After that game, there were many who unfairly said he was a bust and would never be a Major League starter.

Fast forward to this year, and Butto was again starting games for the Mets. That is something no one wanted, but this time, Butto has fared far better than anyone would have expected.

Through two starts, Butto has pitched 9 2/3 innings allowing three earned runs. Per Baseball Savant, batters are not hitting him hard at all, and they’re having difficulty squaring the ball up on him.

Of course, it’s not all good news. Butto’s control has been poor, and that’s probably being kind. He’s walked 10 over 9 2/3 innings. That’s more than a walk per inning.

Forget about his 2.79 ERA being unsustainable with those many walks. It’s a flat out recipe for disaster. That goes double when he’s recorded only three strikeouts.

However, he’s getting away with it. There are some good reasons for it. There’s the aforementioned weak contact against him.

There’s also the 57.6% ground ball rate. Weak ground balls are easy outs for an infield with Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil. That’ll get you out of a lot of jams.

The other answer is Butto has faced bad teams in the Oakland Athletics and Washington Nationals. Assuredly, he’d get roughed up by better teams, but he pitched passably against the opponents he had to face.

We can dismiss what he’s done. He’s been five and fly against bad teams. That’s only part of the picture.

He’s also eaten up 9 2/3 innings which could’ve been put on the bullpen. That will help the Mets in the long run. It makes what he did far more important than many realize.

In the end, Butto looks like he still has work to do before he’s Major League ready. In the interim, he’s better than when we last saw him, and he still made a positive contribution to the team. Credit to him for stepping up.

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Mets Phenoms Ready To Overtake Underperforming Mets Vets

The New York Mets top prospects all began the season with Triple-A Syracuse with the expectation that sooner or later they were going to take over major roles on this Mets team. Put another way, if the Mets veterans did not play well, the organization would have the excuse they needed to push that veteran aside for a potential future All-Star.

That already began with Brett Baty taking over for Eduardo Escobar. Escobar struggled to start the season at the plate and in the field. The Mets felt like they had little other choice than to finally give the job to Baty.

Now, Baty has not set the world on fire. In six games, he is only 5-for-21 at the plate with no extra base hits. However, he has posted a surprisingly strong 2 OAA at second.

As a result, so long as he keeps fielding, and the Mets keep winning games, he can work through his struggles at the plate. After all, Escobar was struggling at the plate an in the field.

Right now, Baty is joined on the roster by Francisco Álvarez. Alvarez is only up because Omar Narváez was injured. Buck Showalter made Álvarez the back-up to Tomás Nido, but as previously detailed, Álvarez has begun pressing the issue by actually outperforming Nido as a pitch framer. There’s also his immense power.

Speaking of immense power, Mark Vientos has been destroying baseballs down in Triple-A. So far this season, he has a .706 SLG and 191 wRC+. Perhaps even more important than the power numbers is his cutting down his strike out rate by nearly five points. As impressive as this all is, it’s all the more so when you consider he is historically a very slow starter.

While Vientos is uncharacteristically hot early, Daniel Vogelbach has not hit for any power to start the season. Through the first 17 games, he has a .375 OPS with just three extra base hits. To be fair, he has been getting on base with a .412 OBP, which is still valuable even if he can’t run.

Still, a Mets team largely devoid of power outside Pete Alonso needs more power in the lineup, and that would preferably come from their DH. Keep in mind, Vogelbach also comes with the problem of being a platoon bat requiring the Mets to carry extra players to pick up his slack. Between the power, ability to actually fill in defensively at the corner infield spots, and his ability to play everyday, Vientos offers far more for the Mets.

Finally, there’s Ronny Mauricio. Like Vientos, he is off to a hot start at the plate with 1.083 OPS. That is coming off the heels of being the LIDOM MVP and a great spring training. It does seem the Mets are preparing for his getting called up this year by moving him to second base this past week.

With respect to that, this is one of the reasons Jeff McNeil is so valuable to the team. While a very good defensive second baseman, he is also a good fielding left fielder. To wit, it seems like McNeil is destined to play left field for the Mets while Mauricio takes over second.

It would seem Mauricio would most likely get the call-up in the event of an injury. On that point, we have already had some Starling Marte scares this season. Aside from Brandon Nimmo, the Mets outfielders are all over the age of 34.

You could argue he could force his way in there over a Mark Canha, who still isn’t hitting for power despite an offseason regiment designed to do so. However, the Mets value his leadership and ability to get on base. Moreover, Mauricio really can’t push aside a veteran like Canha while his walk rate continues to be poor. This year, it’s up to 4.7% which is still problematic.

That said, Mauricio is still hitting and trying to force his way to the majors. We saw Baty has already done that this season. Vientos is on the verge of doing that as well. In the end, the Mets could have a major overhaul this season by going to their younger and better performing players.

 

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Francisco Álvarez Needs To Catch Over Tomás Nido

There is no doubt Francisco Álvarez has struggled this season. Entering the series finale against the San Francisco Giants, Álvarez was 2-for-23 at the plate with no extra base hits, no walks, and seven strikeouts. Those are just ugly numbers.

Part of the reason is Buck Showalter and whoever else in the New York Mets organization froze him out. Despite spring training promises Álvarez was going to catch regularly whenever he was called up, Álvarez took a clear back seat to Tomás Nido.

To some degree, you could understand the rationale. Nido is the far superior defensive catcher. He is a superior defensive catcher as compared to nearly anyone. The idea was his work behind the plate offsets his offensive struggles, and that was all the more important with all of the Mets pitching injuries.

With Nido, he better be great behind the plate to carry that career 57 wRC+. Historically, he has been that. The problem is he has not been remotely good at framing to the start of the season posting 45.8% strike rate and 0 catcher runs (Baseball Savant).

This carries the usual small sample size concerns and caveats. However, when you make a short term decision like playing Nido over the long term decision of playing and developing Álvarez, you have to have all of the stats completely in your favor to justify the decision.

The Mets don’t have that at the moment. In fact, from a framing perspective, the still very raw Álvarez has been outplaying Nido.

Like Nido, Álvarez has posted 0 catcher runs, but he has done it with a 50.0% strike rate. His pop times and exchange rates are slower than Nido, and we have seen teams have a willingness to run on Álvarez a little more. That said, at least in terms of purely catching the pitch, Álvarez seems to be the better performer.

He also has much more potential in his bat. We saw it when he took Tyler Rogers deep in the series finale against the Giants. Keep in mind, Rogers is a reliever with a 0.5 HR/9 rate You have to really earn it against Rogers, and that goes double in that ballpark.

In that moment, we saw the reason why Álvarez has been compared to Mike Piazza. His power is immense, and his offensive potential is off the charts. He just hasn’t gotten it going in the majors in his brief career.

Again, part of the blame lies on Showalter (or whoever is directing him not play Álvarez). It is a decision hurting the team in the short term, and it can hurt the Mets in the long term. They need to let him learn how to be a better catcher, and they need to let him get into a groove at the plate.

Álvarez is the Mets catcher of the future. If they paid any attention, and if they cared about player development, he could be the catcher of the present. After that homer and looking at all of the numbers, it is beyond time to make the switch.

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Mets Need More From Kodai Senga

In the opening game of the four game set against the San Francisco Giants, the New York Mets spotted a 5-0 for Kodai Senga. Of course, part of that was J.D. Davis‘ inability to play third extending Jeff McNeil‘s at-bat leading to a hit by pitch with his scoring on an Eduardo Escobar homer.

At 5-0 in the fourth, the game should have been all but over. At least, that is the case when you have a pitcher like Senga, or better put, a pitcher like we thought Senga was going to be.

Early on, Senga looked very good. His ghost fork has been unhittable. He wasn’t quite unhittable over the first four innings, but he looked in control of the game. That changed completely in the fifth.

Blake Sabol and LaMonte Wade Jr.. homered in the fifth. After that came back-to-back walks toThairo Estrada and Michael Conforto. Fortunately, Davis was up next and struck out for the second out of the inning. After an RBI single and wild pitch, it was suddenly 5-4.

That would be it for Senga. Five innings of work for a Mets bullpen that is getting increasingly more taxed by the day. So far, Senga has started four games for the Mets, and he has not gone beyond five innings twice.

The biggest issue with him has been the walks. He’s walking 14.9% of the batters he faces. That’s really beyond the limits of what is acceptable from a starting pitcher. The same goes for the 6.0 BB/9.

Even if Senga has the talent to limit the damage, he’s still taking himself out of games early with all the additional pitches. More walks is more base runners. In addition to it being more opportunities for the opposition to score, Senga is just not giving himself a chance to go deep into games.

More than that, this is when the Mets desperately need him to step up. José Quintana is gone until at least July. Justin Verlander has been out to start the season, and as of the moment, we don’t know when he will return. Carlos Carrasco has been shut down with elbow inflammation.

On top of that, Max Scherzer needed an extra day between starts. On top of that, he is being suspended for 10 days due to his being accused of using illegal substances in the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

That means 4/5 of the current Mets rotation is what was supposed to be the Triple-A Syracuse Mets rotation. As we know, David Peterson and Tylor Megill began the year in the rotation. Now, Jose Butto and Joey Lucchesi will be in the rotation. That is the way it will be for at least two turns through the rotation.

In many ways, that makes Senga the de facto ace. That shouldn’t be too big of a deal because that’s what he was in Japan. However, with the Mets, he hasn’t looked like that. He appears to be more of a fifth starter.

To be fair, it is just four starts into his Major League career. There is every chance he figures it out and becomes much more than a fifth starter. However, life and baseball aren’t fair. The Mets need Senga to be more than that now. They need him to accelerate his acclimation to the majors. Hopefully, he can step up and do just that because the Mets need it from him.

 

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Max Scherzer Or Phil Cuzzi Should Be Suspended

Just when you thought the New York Mets starting pitching situation couldn’t get any worse, Max Scherzer was thrown out of the game for having an illegal sticky substance. That triggers an automatic 10 game suspension. The Mets can ill afford that with Carlos Carrasco headed to the IL with elbow inflammation.

The situation leading up to Scherzer’s ejection was bizarre. It needs to be fully recapped, and with all the facts surrounding it, we will see the ejection as highly suspect.

It all began in the second inning when Scherzer was told to wash his hand due to “clumpiness”on his non-pitching hand created from the sweat and rosin. Per Scherzer, he washed his hand in front of an MLB official. That was insufficient for Cuzzi, who ordered Scherzer to switch gloves before the start of the third inning.

Coming out for the fourth, Scherzer was checked, and this time, he would be ejected. This would be the third time a pitcher has been suspended for sticky substances. The first two were Caleb Smith and Hector Santiago. Like Scherzer, both pitchers were ejected by Cuzzi.

Scherzer summoned home plate umpire Dan Bellino to interfere. After the game, Bellino would say through pool reporters, “As far as stickiness, this was the stickiest that it has been since I have been inspecting hands, which goes back three seasons. Compared to the first inning, the level of stickiness, it was so sticky that when we touched his hand, our fingers were sticking to his hand. Whatever was on there remained on our fingers for a few innings afterwards [so] that you could still feel the fingers were sticking together.” (Los Angeles Times).

The counter-point to Bellino was Scherzer again noting he washed his hands in front of an MLB official. We did not see him go to the clubhouse between innings to procure something illicit. Scherzer said he knew he was going to get checked in the fourth, and that he wasn’t an idiot. He swore on his children’s lives he did not cheat.

Obviously, Scherzer, the Mets, and Mets fans are going to swear he wasn’t cheating. To a certain extent, Scherzer has built a solid reputation for himself. This isn’t Gerritt Cole. No one ever thought Scherzer was using foreign non-approved substances to pitch well. On that point, Los Angeles Dodgers commentator Orel Hershiser was on Scherzer’s side:

To be fair, Scherzer was a former Dodger. For what it’s worth, Hershiser was a member of the 1999 Mets. However, this seemed to be more akin to Hershiser defending a fellow great starter.

It should be noted New York Yankees starter Domingo Germán had an issue with rosin on his hand in his last start. Unlike Scherzer, he didn’t comply with the request to wash his hands. Also unlike Scherzer, he would not be ejected from the game. In fact, Minnesota Twins manager Rocco Baldelli would be when he complained about how Germán wasn’t being disciplined.

Where does this all lead us? Well, we have a pitcher in Scherzer who has a sterling reputation. There is no video evidence he cheated, and the Dodgers were not requesting Scherzer get checked. Of note there, Scherzer played for Dave Roberts in 2021.

On Cuzzi, he is still the only umpire to eject pitchers for illegal substances. However, its just three over two plus years. That’s not exactly an excessive gotcha indicator. That said, he escalated this situation.

In the end, Scherzer washed his hands in front of an MLB official and didn’t go to the clubhouse. Everything he did was recorded. He even switched gloves per the umpire’s request. Despite all of that, the umpires claim his hand got stickier, and was, in fact, the stickiest hand they ever felt.

Either Scherzer found a way to cheat, or an umpire had it out for a player who groused about the excessive checks and requests. Keep in mind, Cuzzi is a they’re here to see me umpire with a history of #umpshow moments.

Unless there was an official MLB inspection of Scherzer after the game, it is difficult to see how he could be suspended. He complied with every umpire demand, and there’s video of him in the dugout. On the other hand, Cuzzi has a history.

And yet, Scherzer faces an automatic suspension. Based on all the evidence, it appears he should avoid the suspension. If in fact he does, then a suspension should be coming Cuzzi’s way for improperly throwing out a player.

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RIP Joe D

December 29, 2015

That was the day Joe D. asked me to come aboard MMO to write for the site. While we had talked on Twitter DMs, that was the moment where our friendship began.

It wasn’t until I received the news yesterday that he died that I realized we knew each other for seven years. That’s only part of the reason the news hit me so hard.

There were things which brought us together. Obviously, there was a love of the New York Mets. By extension, there was frustration over the Wilpons, but mostly, it was just the unfair treatment Mets fans receive.

It’s one of the reasons he started blogging. He was one of the first. He started raising money for MetsBlog, and then went out on his own. If MMO isn’t the longest running Mets blog, it’s one of the longest. The same goes for MMN when it comes to minor league coverage. That’s real passion for the Mets.

You see, Joe just didn’t love the Mets. He loved the Mets fan. It’s why he valued the independence of MMO. By doing that, he could tell the truth as fans saw it without the obstacles many sites had.

To this day, I was astonished he read my site. In the beginning, he might’ve been the only one. I always valued his feedback, and he did teach me how to blog much better.

Shorter paragraphs. Baseball Reference Player Linker. Better and more succinct titles. On the last, no one came up with better titles for articles than Joe D.

The only thing Joe did better than titles was fight. That was emblematic of his naval service.

He truly fought for his writers. He fought for the truth. He was sick for as long as I knew him, and he battled harder than anyone.

He battled me from time-to-time. It was good natured, and it was about Mets stuff. One funny antidote was after the Mets had designated Travis d’Arnaud for assignment, he said the only good thing about it was he wouldn’t hear from me anymore about his pitch framing or on how underrated d’Arnaud was.

Through it all, what I did value most was his honesty and loyalty. In respect for him then and now, I won’t speak of the circumstances surrounding my time away from MMO, but it should be said we stayed in touch throughout, and as soon as certain circumstances changed, I was very happy to return (even if a certain player wasn’t).

In all honesty, I always took it for granted Joe D was there. I was always awaiting the compliment from an article on MMO, MMN, or my site. When I heard from him, I knew I really wrote something good.

My hope is that this article would’ve been one of those times. Sadly, I’ll never know because my friend is gone.

RIP Joe D.

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Mets Defense Great To Start 2023 Season

Bottom first, bases loaded, two outs. Kodai Senga is on the verge of getting out of a bases loaded no out jam when Jon Berti hits a tailing line drive down the line. Instead of emptying the bases, Starling Marte races over and makes the catch to end the inning.

That right there is why the New York Mets have been off to a good start to the 2023 season. In a year which is supposed to be defined by more hits as a result of the shift ban, the Mets have been playing stellar defense. That is especially true up the middle with Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil.

While we know there is far too small of a sample size to adjudge defense, we see Lindor and McNeil have been making all of the plays. In terms of McNeil, per Baseball Savant, he has an 86% success rate on fielding plays. That is a 3% success added rate on plays.

That was no more true than the play he made in Miami. After a ground ball got through Pete Alonso, McNeil responded by making the sliding catch and nailing the speedy Berti at home. That play was named the inaugural Play of the Week from MLB for the 2023 season.

This should come as no surprise for McNeil. Last season, McNeil posted a 7 OAA as a second baseman. That rated him as the second best defensive second baseman in the National League.

As good as McNeil has been, Lindor has been even better. So far this season, he has an astounding 93% success rate on plays. That gives him an impressive 8% success rate added on plays.

Prior to this season, Lindor has been a proponent of banning the shift. Part of the reason was to permit him to be the shortstop he can be. Last season, he told Sports Illustrated, “Let me do me. Let me make the crazy play. Let me be like, ‘O.K., he’s going to pull the ball. I can’t be on that side of the base.’ So as the pitch goes, I run on the other side of the base—pow!—and make the play.”

He’s already put together a number of highlights this season. There was the leaping grab to rob Jorge Soler of extra bases. There was the double play started when he went up the middle and flipped the ball to McNeil. The play everyone seems to be talking about to start the season was his going into the hole to rob Bryan De La Cruz of an RBI single.

Lindor has always been a great defender. He has already won two Gold Gloves and a Platinum Glove. Since his first full season in 2016, he leads all MLB shortstops with a 117 OAA. However, so far this season, it just seems Lindor is playing at another level. In fact, we even see it on the plays he doesn’t make.

Omar Narváez threw the ball away on a Christian Yelich stolen base attempt. Lindor deked Yelich into staying at second base instead of going to third. The play saved Narváez from an error, and to this point in the season, the Mets still have not committed an error.

The defense from Lindor has been noticeable to start the season. Showalter said after the April 1 game, “He has taken his defensive game to another level. He is moving his feet really well. He is anticipating things.”

Overall, the Mets might’ve entered the season with the best up the middle infield defense in the majors. Seeing the way McNeil and Lindor have started the season, they are taking their defense to another level. We are also seeing it rub off on their teammates as they are making strong defensive plays.

As we saw in 1999, you can have a special season led by great defense. Lindor and McNeil seemed poised to make this a year just like that.

EDITOR’S NOTE: This post was first published on MMO.

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Mets May Need To RIGHT Ship

We need to start with a couple of caveats here. First and foremost, it’s only two games. Moreover, those two games were started by reigning Cy Young Sandy Alcantara and Jesús Luzardo.

That all said, the New York Mets right-handed hitting options outside of Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Starling Marte were going to be a question mark at best. Problem at worse.

So far, it has looked like a problem.

Mark Canha’s bat has looked as slow as it did in September and October of last season. Tommy Pham is hitless in four relatively non-competitive at-bats.

We can and should say many times over it’s early. However, we’re seeing problems of last year resurface for both players. That creates a dilemma for the Mets.

Down in Triple-A, they have Brett Baty who looked ready to go. Yes, he’s left-handed, but he would force at least one of Canha or Eduardo Escobar to the bench.

This could keep Canha and Escobar fresher. Mainly, it shifts the positions and responsibilities of veterans. Instead of everyday players, they become utility or semi-regular players.

Moving Canha to the bench could have Jeff McNeil in left with Luis Guillorme at second. The Mets could also opt for Guillorme at third with Escobar on the bench.

If no one is hitting, then Guillorme’s glove needs to be on the field everyday. In reality, it always needed to be there.

Same goes for Baty. He always should have been on the roster. He’s a better defender now than Escobar, and he has more potential to be a better hitter than Canha or Escobar.

Again, this seems to be a rush to judgment, but that’s partially because the Mets have a rapidly approaching deadline. Per Baseball America, if Baty is called up with two weeks, the Mets may be eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive.

Due to the timelines, if Baty is called up soon, the Mets are eligible for a first round pick and international bonus pool money if he wins Rookie of the Year. Even if he were not to win it, the Mets could receive future compensation if he finishes in the top three in MVP voting until he’s arbitration eligible.

If Baty is up, there will still be plenty of at-bats to go around to Canha and Escobar. That’s partially the result of Daniel Vogelbach being a platoon DH.

However, at some point, the Mets need to stop worrying about finding them at-bats and just give playing time to worthy players who can help them win.

At the moment, Canha and Pham look overmatched at the plate and aren’t great defenders. Escobar isn’t a good defender and again appears to be a platoon bat. There’s a deadline on Baty fast approaching.

The Mets created a problem by assembling this roster. The right-handed bats were very questionable and look all the more so through two games.

Given Baty and PPI, they can’t just wait for Canha, Escobar, and Pham to right the ship. Mets need to act quickly and right the ship.

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Justin Verlander Injury Is An Opportunity

The New York Mets got even more bad news from the starting rotation front when it was announced Justin Verlander was going to start the year on the IL. While Verlander sounds optimistic, at the moment, we do not know how long he will be on the IL.

This comes after we learned José Quintana is going to miss much of the year due to his bone graft surgery. As a result, the Mets are going to have David Peterson and Tylor Megill in the Opening Day rotation when the team understandably wanted to use them as pitching depth.

Arguably, this is a very good thing. First and foremost, it is going to allow Peterson and Megill to further establish themselves as Major League caliber starting pitchers. Remember, after this season, Carlos Carrasco will be a free agent with the Mets almost a lock not to re-sign him. That means one of these two can grab a spot in the the 2024 rotation by pitching well next year.

The other alternative is either one of them show they can’t stay in the rotation. To a certain degree, that is what happened years ago with Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo. Both were forced to the bullpen by a mixture of the Mets then starting pitching depth and their struggles in their first full year in the rotation. Gsellman struggled while Lugo went on to become the best reliever in baseball for a stretch.

Remember, Megill and Peterson are Major League caliber pitchers. It is now incumbent on the Mets to find their best role. With the Edwin Díaz season ending surgery, the sooner we find out one is a reliever the better. Of course, that assumes one or both can’t last in the rotation, which is an unfair presumption. After all, both have had success in their limited chances in a Major League rotation.

Another factor going forward is Verlander’s age. The 40 year old has been a workhorse throughout his career, and it was one of the reasons the Mets acted quickly to sign him after Jacob deGrom signed with the Texas Rangers. Part of his being 40 is he is older and probably needs more rest than he needed 10 or even five years ago.

The innings the Mets need from Verlander are in September and October. As long as they get a fresher and healthier Verlander then, we can count his saving his arm right now as a win. Of course, that assumes he can come back at a reasonable point while the Mets stay afloat with him out of the rotation. Based upon everything, that sounds like a reasonable presumption.

In the end, we have two options. We can first throw our hands up and decry this being the same old Mets. Or, we can acknowledge that while this sucks, this may work out better for the Mets in the long run. You can pick which one you want, but no matter how you look at it, this is a great opportunity for Megill and Peterson, and it may also be for Jose Butto and Joey Lucchesi, who are the next up should any starting pitcher fail.

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2023 MLB Predictions

With the 2023 Major League Baseball season getting underway, it is time to make some predictions for the season. Last year, well, at least the predictions for the NL side of the ledger looked a lot better than the AL side, which is exactly bragging.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AL East – Toronto Blue Jays

Yes, the New York Yankees kept Aaron Judge, and Anthony Volpe will begin the year on the roster, but they already have Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino, and Frankie Montas on the IL. The Blue Jays are younger, healthier, and added some key pieces around their exciting young core. This is the year they finally break through and win the division.

AL Central – Minnesota Twins

The Chicago White Sox were disappointing last year and took a step backwards this offseason. The Guardians were a surprise, but all they did was add Josh Bell. The Twins kept Carlos Correa while doing well to add Christian Vázquez and Joey Gallo. All told, this division is bad, and the Twins are probably just less bad than the lot.

AL West – Houston Astros

Picking anyone else would be insane (don’t check my predictions for last year). The Seattle Mariners are on the cusp, and as we may be saying for the last time, the Los Angeles Angels have Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. Still, the Astros are the strongest and best team in baseball.

AL Wild Card 1 – New York Yankees – Look, they still have Judge, Anthony Rizzo., and Giancarlo Stanton. How they keep everyone healthy is anyone’s guess, but there is enough talent there to be great when it is all there, which may not be for more than 50 games.

AL Wild Card 2 – Tampa Bay Rays – They’re the Rays. They’re the team where you throw them a million mismatched Lego pieces, and they build you the Taj Mahal. There’s also just the look in Randy Arozarena‘s eyes during the WBC.

AL Wild Card 3 – Los Angeles Angels – Yes, the Mariners are probably better right now. However, the Angels are absolutely hellbent on keeping Ohtani and will pull out all the stops this year to make it happen. We may also see Trout more motivated than ever, which is astonishing considering how great he is.

AL MVP & Cy Young – Shohei Ohtani – Maybe this is a complete overreaction to the WBC, but Ohtani going into a contract year is going to put on a show that may never be repeated in the history of baseball.

AL Rookie of the Year – Gunnar Henderson – He’s the top prospect in the game, and he impressed during his cup of coffee last season.

AL Manager of the Year – Phil Nevin – It’s a narrative award. If the Angels make the postseason when no one thought they would, he gets the award.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

NL East – Atlanta Braves

The Braves were the top team in the division last year, and they improved with Sean Murphy. The New York Mets rotation depth took a hit already, and their bench looks ugly. The Philadelphia Phillies are stronger than last year and are best poised to make a run at the Braves.

NL Central – St. Louis Cardinals

They have Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and are very well run. The Milwaukee Brewers are in turmoil. Keep an eye on the Chicago Cubs who had a sneaky good offseason and could surprise.

NL West – San Diego Padres

The Los Angeles Dodgers lost too much. They not only lost Trea Turner, but they also lost his replacement in Gavin Lux. This is probably the thinnest their starting pitching has been. Meanwhile, the Padres just keep adding. At some point, they have to not have some implosion during the season. Keep an eye on the San Francisco Giants who had a smart under the radar Giants like offseason.

NL Wild Card 1 – Philadelphia Phillies – The reigning pennant winners are all the more formidable with Turner and Taijuan Walker. They will get a jolt when Bryce Harper returns.

NL Wild Card 2 – New York Mets – This team is still really good with Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander. It’s more than enough to win, and they will likely have the best roster to get a team through the postseason.

NL Wild Card 3 – San Francisco Giants – They immensely improved their offense with Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger. They know what they’re doing from a pitching standpoint better than anyone.

NL MVP – Jeff McNeil – With the shift ban, he could hit .400, and if he does that or makes a serious run, he will get the award.

NL Cy Young – Julio Urias – He has probably been the best pitcher in the NL over the past two years, and this could be the year he gets over the hump.

NL Rookie of the Year – Kodai Senga – It does not appear as if he has struggled with the new ball, and that ghost fork has looked lethal.

NL Manager of the Year – Rob Thompson – The Phillies are going to make a strong run at the division, and he will be partially rewarded for what he did when the took over the Phillies last season.

POSTSEASON

Wild Card Round

Angels over Twins
Yankees over Rays

Cardinals over Giants
Mets over Phillies

Divisional Round

Astros over Angels
Blue Jays over Yankees

Padres over Cardinals
Mets over Braves

League Championship Series

Astros over Blue Jays
MVP – Yordan Alvarez

Mets over Padres
MVP – Francisco Lindor

World Series

Mets over Astros
MVP – Justin Verlander

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