COVID19

Simulated Recap: No Fooling, Mets Finally Win

Well, it finally happened. Behind the pitching of Jacob deGrom, the Mets finally have a simulated win for the 2020 season.

For a while, it looked like a typical deGrom start with him shutting down the other side and the Mets not scoring runs. Jeff McNeil was thrown out at the plate, and Brandon Nimmo struck out with the bases loaded.

Finally, Robinson Cano hit an RBI single in the third, and Dominic Smith would hit a three run homer to give the Mets a 4-0 lead. Pete Alonso, who has struggled in 2020 (for what very little that’s worth) also homered in the game.

It was a very rude homecoming for Zack Wheeler who only lasted four innings and would take the loss.

The Phillies didn’t get to deGrom until Nick Williams hit a two run homer in the seventh, but that only pulled the Phillies to within 5-2.

Seth Lugo got touched up for two in the eighth, but Edwin Diaz would shut the door in the ninth to preserve the Mets 5-4 win, their first of the season.

Major League Baseball Classic

As noted earlier, those sporting events originally scheduled for April and May which are being postponed are mostly being rescheduled for September. Inherent in that is the assumption by organizers of these events is September is a relatively safe time we can pinpoint to once again host events.

Assuming for a moment September 2020 is the time sporting events can once again be held, Major League Baseball has a real problem on their hands. At the end of the day, they are going to be left with a myriad of just bad options at their feet.

The first and least attractive option is to cancel the entire 2020 season. While we would all understand, no one wants to see that happen. Even if you are not a baseball fan, you want to see this pandemic end and for everyone to get back to their normal lives.

The other option is playing into December utilizing neutral sites. There are a number of issues with that including figuring out which cities can safely host games into the winter both in terms of the weather and COVID19. Aside from that, how can so few ballparks host so many games for 30 teams? It doesn’t seem plausible.

To that end, maybe the realistic target is to finish the regular season, whatever can be salvaged of it, by Halloween. Maybe that’s two months. Maybe three. Perhaps, it is just one. No matter what, we are still talking about neutral site postseason games for November and December.

At some point, Major League Baseball has to ask itself whether this is both plausible and whether this is worth it. Remember, part and parcel with this is these same players, pitchers especially, are going to have to be ready just a month or two later to begin the 2021 season.

Really, can baseball have a full free agency, Rule 5 Draft, GM and Winter Meetings, and a full offseason in the Month of January alone. Really, the deeper we go into 2020, the more we are going to affect the 2021 season. That’s just compounding the problem.

With that in mind, in lieu of a 2020 regular season, Major League Baseball should host the Major League Baseball Classic modeled after the World Baseball Classic.

Looking at the World Baseball Classic, there are four pools who play a round robin tournament. The top two two teams from each pool advance to the next round. Those eight teams comprise two new pools. From there, the top four teams advance to a single elimination semifinals and championship. The key for Major League Baseball is to find a way to make that tournament played over three weeks into a format which makes sense for baseball.

That is partially going to depend on the amount of time baseball has to play. For the moment, let’s assume baseball cannot resume games until Labor Day.

With there being six divisions, you have six built-in pools of five teams a piece. What is interesting about each pool is all but one division has at least one all-weather venue which can be utilized by each division. As a result, those locations should be tabbed to host each pool/division:

AL East Rogers Centre/Tropicana Field
AL Central None
AL West T-Mobile Park/Minute Maid Park/Angel Stadium
NL East Marlins Park
NL Central Miller Park
NL West Petco Field/Chase Field/Dodgers Stadium

Based upon a myriad of factors, MLB can select a venue for each pool. Whether they feel it prudent to have six different stadiums where they can play or fewer venues is up to baseball and governmental authorities. They can also go to another location if deemed necessary.

Depending on the amount of games baseball feels it can have, baseball can focus on their biggest rivalries by treating each division like a World Baseball Classic pool. They can use this to determine the three division winners like they normally would during the regular season.

From there, MLB can go with two different options. They can limit the next round to just the three division winners with a double elimination to determine the teams who go to the best-of-seven LCS. They could also make a larger pool with six teams (top two from each division) with the top two teams moving to an LCS.

With the six teams, you could also have a double elimination between the three Wild Card teams and start the LDS series from there as you usually would.

Overall, the ideal you are looking for is to set up your typical best-of-seven LCS and World Series. By setting it up under a World Baseball Classic format, you limit travel, and you are able to go from game to game without issue. If there needs to be doubleheaders, it is easier to do since everyone is in one place.

The key is to get players in one place to let you play as many games as possible as quickly as possible. If you are able to get fans there, all the better, but at this point that may be a pipe dream.

Whether it is this plan or another plan, it is becoming increasingly difficult to have any form of a season. With that being the case, MLB should be seriously considering moving to a tournament format. Fortunately, with their already operating the World Baseball Classic, they know which venues can best accommodate a tournament, and they know the logistics which need to be in place to run that format.

Slowly Realizing There May Be No Baseball This Year

No, this is not an April Fool’s Joke. Rather, looking at everything happening, you do have to wonder how it can be possible for Major League Baseball to play games in 2020. Right now, we know the NCAA Tournament was canceled, and the MLB, NHL, and NBA seasons are currently suspended. However, it is more than that. Look at the events which have been currently postponed:

Original Date Rescheduled
Masters April 9, 2020 TBD
Boston Marathon April 19, 2020 September 14, 2020
Kentucky Derby May 2, 2020 September 5, 2020
PGA Championship May 11, 2020 TBD
Preakness May 16, 2020 September 2020
French Open May 18, 2020 September 20, 2020
Indy 500 May 24, 2020 August 23, 2020
2020 Summer Olympics July 24, 2020 July 21, 2021

In addition to these events, there is growing speculation Wimbeldon will have to be canceled. There are two reasons for the expected cancelation, both COVID19 related. First and foremost, no one has any idea when we can resume our normal lives and attend sporting events. The other reason is with the COVID19 outbreak the All England Lawn Tennis & Croquet Club is unable to be maintained. With it not being able to be maintained, it is difficult to ascertain when the courts can be brought into safe playing condition.

That last point hits home with baseball. There are 30 Major League ballparks which are presumably not being maintained. As a result, in addition to the time players need to prepare to start playing baseball again, there is also the time ground crews need to make fields playable again. That may not make much time, but it is a factor.

More important than that is the public health. With the Olympics being postponed a full year, we see organizers are not confident they will be able to host events from late July into August. Considering the scale of the event, you can understand an earlier cancellation, but in the end, this is the first sign we’re probably not going to see sporting events this summer.

On that note, take a look at the events which have been rescheduled. The April and May events which are being postponed are mostly being scheduled for September. Right there is an indication as to when organizers of these events believe we can reasonably return to seeing sporting events being played.

If events cannot be held until late August or even early September, you have to wonder when or if baseball can return. Remember, baseball needs to get maintenance crews to attend fields left not maintained for months, and they need players to get back into playing shape withe some form of a Spring Training.

That is all before you realize MLB initially said it will not return to play until it was deemed safe for spectators to attend events. That is becoming increasingly unlikely, and perhaps that is why Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported MLB is now investigating playing initially without crowds to play as many games as possible.

At this point, baseball isn’t even contemplating playing before mid-May and with each passing day that becomes unrealistic. At this point, everyone needs to begin asking themselves, fans or no fans, can they even play baseball in 2020?

That answer might be no.

Simulated Recap: Shades Of 2005

Fifteen years ago, Mets fans were psyched for a season where Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran joined a team which already had Mike Piazza, Jose Reyes, and David Wright. On Opening Day, the Mets bullpen, namely Braden Looper, blew the game setting the stage for an 0-5 start. Based on the MLB The Show 20 simulations, we’re revisiting that season.

In the fourth, Rhys Hoskins would hit the first of two homers. That one homer off Michael Wacha was all the margin the Phillies needed as Aaron Nola completely shut down the Mets offense.

After this 3-0 loss, video game Luis Rojas has started his managerial career 0-5. That’s just like Willie Randolph. Of course, that Mets team would still finish the year above .500, and it would be a stepping stone to the last great Mets team in Shea Stadium the following year.

Any Mets fan would take this Mets team building towards being one at-bat from a World Series. Mostly, they’ll take any baseball whatsoever.

Mets Not Employing Ballpark Employees

Major League Baseball had each team contribute $1 million to pay hourly wage employees affected by the COVID19 shut down. Some teams have gone over and above that by increasing that amount independently. The Mets, well, as we know by now, they do things differently than everyone else.

Based upon this letter, while the Mets purportedly contributed $1 million to the fund for the ballpark employees affected by the COVID19 shutdown, they are not going to pay those employees. Actually, that’s not entirely true. Rather, the Mets are not going to “re-employ” some of those people they have employed in year’s past and were expected to employ again in 2020.

There may be an important distinction in that these letters went out to people not directly employed by the Mets but rather the Queens Baseball Company, L.L.C. Whatever their function, it is important to note this was a letter sent on Mets letterhead by the Mets Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer. According to Bloomberg, this company is a wholly owned subsidiary of the New York Mets.

Now, you can question the authenticity of this letter as it’s existence has yet to be fully confirmed or denied by any news reporting agency. Also, at least in theory, it is possible this letter is indeed real, and in a separate correspondence the Mets sent payment to these same people. It is also possible by sending these employees letters like this, they are making it easier for them to pursue other employment opportunities, to the extent there are any, or to obtain benefits, which is unclear at the moment.

At the moment, no one knows when baseball is going to return. With that being the case, those employees most affected have no way of knowing when their next paycheck is going to come. If this letter is real, it at least appears the Mets plan is to simply not pay those employees and to let them find money elsewhere.

We have known for years the Mets have had financial difficulties, and before the COVID19 outbreak the Wilpons had not secured their share of the funding for the Islanders new arena,.

At this moment, we don’t even know the Mets capacity to pay anyone with their being no games played. We also don’t know what measures anyone in the Mets organization are willing to take (for e.g. pay cuts) to get these people paid.

The only thing we know for sure is there are people wondering when they’ll be able to be paid again, and based on this letter, it seems that future pay day will not be coming from the Mets.

Simulated Recap: Mets Can’t Computer Generate A Win

Well, there are some issues with the AI and decision making, but in the end, the main takeaway so far is MLB The Show doesn’t think the Mets quite stack up to the NL East competition.

All his life, Rick Porcello wanted to be a Mets pitcher, and he took a one year deal with the Mets to make that happen. You can be sure he didn’t want his first start to go like this.

First off, you can be rest assured he didn’t want his Mets debut to be simulated because of COVID19. He also didn’t want to take the loss while not lasting five innings.

His big problem can in the second when he got hit hard. The hardest hit came off the bat of Didi Gregorius who opened the scoring with a solo homer.

The Mets trailed 4-1 in the bottom of the seventh, with the lone run coming off a Brandon Nimmo homer off of Vince Velasquez. The Mets pulled to within 4-2 off a long Wilson Ramos RBI single. That’s when the bizarre AI kicked in.

Down two with two on and no outs, Amed Rosario bunted in front of Jake Marisnick, and the Phillies got the force out at second. Marisnick struck out, and then out of everyone on the bench, Jarrett Parker came up to pinch hit.

That’s the same NRI who was never going to make the Mets 2020 Opening Day roster. He grounded out to first to end the rally.

In the end, we can all assume Luis Rojas will be much better than this. If so, maybe the Mets don’t lose games like this 4-2, and mostly likely, they won’t begin the year losing their first four.

How much better they’ll be is up for debate. For instance, Baseball Reference‘s 2020 simulation with OOTP21 has the Mets with a 1-3 record at the moment.

Still, these are just simulations, and they’re helping us get through this stretch of self isolation and quarantine. Seeing these Mets start 0-4, we wait all the more for the real thing.

Simulated Recap: Nationals Sweep Mets Away

In years past, the Mets have been able to use the opening series against the Nationals to make a statement. In this simulated series, the Mets team without Michael Conforto and Noah Syndergaard was swept at home.

While some were debating Steven Matz or Michael Wacha for the fifth spot in the rotation, it was Matz as the team’s number three over Rick Porcello in the absence of Syndergaard.

Mets actually had an early lead when Wilson Ramos hit a two out two run double in the fourth. However, the wheels came off for Matz in the fifth as the Nationals scored five runs capped off by a Kurt Suzuki two run homer. Matz was lifted when he couldn’t get the last out of the inning.

The Mets were down 6-2 entering the seventh. Robinson Cano chased Patrick Corbin with an RBI single. Amed Rosario and Jake Marisnick greeted the Nationals bullpen with RBI singles pulling the Mets to within 6-5.

The Mets had two on, no out, and they were ready to flip to the top of their lineup. For some reason, Justin Wilson hit for himself, and he couldn’t quite get the sacrifice down leading the Mets to strand the tying run at third.

An eighth inning rally sputtered without scoring a run, and the Nationals racked on two insurance runs in the ninth for the 8-5 win.

In the series, we saw the Nationals were a better team as they flexed their championship muscles. Of course, while some may debate whether that’s an actual thing, it’s most likely not in a simulation. The other key detail is while we have not seen Luis Rojas manage a game yet, we can be certain he doesn’t bat Wilson in that situation.

Overall, the Mets may be 0-3 in MLB The Show, but they’re still 0-0, so that’s something.

Simulated Recap: Mets Lose Another 11 Inning Game

With there being no baseball, or really any professional sports being played right now, MLB The Show 20 continues simulating the 2020 season.

The second game of the season went much like the first. Like with Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, Marcus Stroman and Stephen Strasburg each had a no decision. Robinson Cano also homered, and Jake Marisnick would be caught stealing.

The game would also go into extras. Like on Opening Day when Robert Gsellman pitched a second inning, Justin Wilson would do the same. Wilson would also take the loss after surrendering a run in the top of the 11th.

This time the rally started with a Howie Kendrick lead-off single. After a wild pitch and fielder’s choice, he’d be on third with two outs. Whereas the Mets couldn’t turn a double play to keep the run from scoring on Opening Day, Brandon Nimmo just couldn’t get to a Kurt Suzuki shallow bloop near the line.

Instead of a 3-2 loss, the Mets lost this one 3-2 with Sean Doolittle recording the save again. Doolittle taking care of business against the Mets might be the most unrealistic part of these simulations.

In the end, these simulations highlight just how close these two teams are on paper. From these simulations, we’ve apparently missed out on some exciting baseball games. On the bright side, these losses don’t count for anything.

Mets Lose Simulated Opening Day

The Mets didn’t have Opening Day. No one did, but everyone tried to do something to celebrate Opening Day. The Mets tried something interesting, and they simulated Opening Day using MLB The Show, and it was broadcast on Twitter and YouTube.

In the game, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer pitched no decisions, and much like last year, Robinson Cano homered off of Scherzer.

Ultimately, the Mets would lose in extra innings. Robert Gsellman walked the lead-off batter, Adam Eaton, and then the Mets couldn’t turn a double play in two attempts.

The first, Jeff McNeil pulled Cano off the bag. The second, Eric Thames beat the throw giving him a go-ahead RBI ground out which would prove to be the winning run in the 3-2 game.

What does this all mean? Nothing really. It’s not indicative of how this game would’ve went, nor is it a harbinger of things to come in 2020 when the Mets are able to play.

Overall, it was something, which is far better than nothing. In the end, it helps pass the time, is mildly entertaining, and it would be made much better if they can get Gary, Keith, and Ron to announce the games.

Hopefully, they’ll continue to show these games in some fashion until we get actual baseball. More than that, the real hope is real, actual baseball can return soon.

Can MLB Realistically Air Home Run Derby Now?

Due to COVID19, ESPN is planning to replace their Opening Day programming by re-airing the Home Run Derby from the past five seasons. With them being run in reverse, Mets fans get to see Pete Alonso winning the 2019 Home Run Derby in the 6:00 P.M rebroadcast, and they get the end the day watching Todd Frazier, then of the Cincinnati Reds, winning the 2015 Home Run Derby.

While this the Home Run Derby we all know and love (at least some of us), watching players like Yoenis Cespedes launch homers into the Citi Field stands under a bracket format is not in congruence with the original concept. In fact, the original Home Run Derby was quite different.

Under the original format, sluggers would face off against each other in a nine inning game. The game was very much akin to a baseball game with nine innings and three outs per inning. Under the construct of the game, anything not hit for a homer was an out, and if a batter did not swing at a strike, it was an out.

Re-watching those games/episodes, you’ll notice they were played at an empty Wrigley Field. No, not the Wrigley Field in Chicago, but the old one in Los Angeles. The venue was selected for a myriad of reasons including it being supposedly neutral to right and left-handed hitters.

In this series, we saw some of the greatest sluggers of all-time face off against once another. Perhaps, it should come as little surprise Hank Aaron had the best record in the show’s history. The only other two hitters with a winning record were Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays, two Hall of Famers who are also members of the 500 home run club.

Conceptually, pulling off this version of the Home Run Derby could be accomplished with the outbreak of COVID19. As we know a pitcher stands 60’6″ away from the batter. The two batters can stay in their own dugouts, and they only come out after the other batter has cleared the playing surface.

In lieu of a catcher or umpire, we can just let balls go to the backstop, and we can let technology determine if it was a strike or ball. If nothing else, it would be a good test of the technology MLB wants to eventually introduce to the Major Leagues.

With the announcer up in the broadcast booth, there would be social distancing of much more than six feet between everyone. At least in theory, this makes the set-up of a Home Run Derby possible, at least conceptually. In reality, that may not be realistic, at least not yet.

Frankly, there is too much inter-personal contact necessary to set up the event. Someone is going to have to set up cameras, microphones, and handle the baseballs. There are many more things which would need to be done to allow this to happen, which, given the current state, would make this event impractical.

That’s at least right now. Hopefully, there will be a point where we will be able to have expanded testing efforts, which could permit individuals and players who have tested negative to have this event in an empty ballpark. Potentially, baseball could do this during the time period between people getting cleared on a widescale basis and everyone being able to return to work/baseball.

At this moment, it’s just an idea, but it may be a worthwhile idea to pursue. After all, the Home Run Derby is one of the more popular events of not just the All-Star festivities, but the entire season. If possible, it would give us a live sporting event until games can return.