The New York Mets gambled last season offering Luis Severino a one year $13 million contract. The deal could not have gone better for either side.

Severino made 31 starts for the Mets pitching 182 innings. He had a 101 ERA+ and a 4.21 FIP. He wasn’t the All-Star caliber pitcher he was with the New York Yankees before all the injuries, but he proved he could be durable enough to last a full season.

Severino stopped tipping his pitches. He occasionally flashed brilliance. His first two starts of the postseason were very good. The work with Driveline and Jeremy Hefner paid off, and Severino was entering free agency poised to truly cash in.

The Mets opted to gamble again and extended Severino a qualifying offer, which is $21.05 million. If he accepts, that’s a nice pay raise for Severino albeit with some risk.

Last offseason, with his injuries and top pitching, Severino needed a one year deal to rebuild his value. In 2024, he accomplished that and appeared in line for a multi-year deal.

That was at least until he was given a qualifying offer. With that, there are going to be teams who will not pursue Severino. Severino was good in 2024 but probably not good enough to justify losing a draft pick and/or international bonus pool money.

For Severino, that puts him in a bad spot. At 31, does he want to try to find a multi year deal in an already limited market? Would such a deal be worth passing on $21.05 million? Certainly, his AAV would look more like his 2024 salary than the QO.

For the Mets, they need starters, and Severino as a mid rotation guy would be perfect. This buys time for Christian Scott to return from Tommy John. It also buys time for prospects like Blade Tidwell and Brandon Sproat.

Mostly, it gets a key part of their rotation locked in as the Mets look to take the next step in 2025. Doing that while not over leveraging into the future is the best case scenario.

That’s Severino accepting the QO. It’s the best case scenario. It strengthens the 2025 rotation while mitigating the risk he doesn’t have any durability after pitching 100 more innings in a year.

Severino returning on a QO is a best case scenario. It would be a great start to the offseason. It’s the first step towards the Mets winning the 2025 World Series.