Mets Interest In Adrian Gonzalez Is Sadly Predictable
In a vacuum, the Mets purported interest in Adrian Gonzalez makes a ton of sense.
Gonzalez had a forgettable 2017 season largely fueled by back problems. This led to him posting a -1.2 WAR, easily the worst in his career.
In the three years prior, Gonzalez was a .279/.345/.466 hitter who averaged 35 doubles, 24 homers, and 99 RBI. That’s good for a 124 OPS+ and a 123 wRC+. In the field, he averaged an 8 DRS. Overall, he averaged a 3.3 WAR.
These numbers were dragged down by a down 2016 season. Still, Gonzalez had a 111 OPS+, 111 wRC+, 3 DRS, and a 2.1 WAR.
With Dominic Smith struggling mightily in his first exposure to the majors, Gonzalez would arguably be the perfect insurance policy for the 2013 first round draft pick (11th overall).
However, this is all in a vacuum. The offseason tells us why this is a much different story.
Sandy Alderson began the offseason saying Smith “didn’t win [the first base job] in September, let’s put it that way.” (Mike Puma, New York Post).
This gave way to comments about Smith’s weight. More importantly, it gave way to interest in Carlos Santana and Jay Bruce.
Well, the price tags for both were set high. While Bruce has dropped his price, Santana signed a three year deal with a $20 million average annual value.
This would eventually give way to the Mets being very high on Smith. (Puma, New York Post). Admittedly, this did come on the heels of Smith losing over 10 pounds since the season started.
So great, Smith is keeping his end of the bargain. The Mets can now allocate resources and 25/40 man space to fulfill other holes on an immensely flawed roster.
Nope. The Braves, who already have Freddie Freeman, obtained Gonzalez in a bad contract trade with the Dodgers. To the surprise of no one, Gonzalez was released despite being owed $22.3 million next year.
Accordingly, Gonzalez’s new team would have to pay him just the league minimum.
And now, the Mets are interested in adding a 35 year old first baseman coming off an injury plagued season.
Again, this would be the smart decision for the Mets. In Gonzalez, you’re getting a cheap safety net. You may be also getting a potential difference maker should he rediscover his form.
However, the Mets started this offseason by saying Smith didn’t win a job, and he needed to lose weight . . . again. Essentially, they said they’re not sure they can count on him at all in 2018.
Mets: Dom is bad. We need a new first baseman.
Santana's Agent: He wants $20 million a year.
Mets: We were too harsh on Dom. He's our first baseman of the future.
Braves: We're releasing Gonzalez
Gonzalez's Agent: He wants league minimum
Mets: Yo Adrian!— Mets Daddy (@MetsDaddy2013) December 20, 2017
You cannnot go from that to someone who will turn 36 next year, who is coming off the worst season of his career. You don’t go from being dismissive of Smith to an old declining player who now has back issues.
Gonzalez isn’t insurance. Rather, it’s just the team collecting league minimum contracts hoping one player sticks.
That’s not how you build a team you think can win a World Series. That’s pushing all your chips despite holding 2-7 off suit.
This is yet another example of the Mets being dissatisfied with their own draft picks and being unable to spend to offset that. That’s not exactly the best combination in a franchise.
Mets fans are likely left hoping and praying the combination of Smith and Gonzalez works out better than that.