Before the change in ownership, there was a belief the Mets might non-tender Steven Matz thereby making him a free agent. Certainly, given Matz’s nightmare of a 2020 season, it would’ve been a defensible position.
However, instead of going that route, the Mets not only tendered him a contract, but they also make steps to aver their belief in him and his ability.
That started almost immediately after the 2020 season. As reported by MMO‘s Michael Mayer, Matz began working with Phil Regan. When Matz last worked with Regan in the second half of the 2019 season, Matz had seemed turn his career around.
In fact, in the second half of that season, Matz was 6-4 with a 3.52 ERA, 1.197 WHIP, and a 3.26 K/BB. For several reasons, Matz wasn’t able to build on that. However, with his working with Regan again, he very well might.
It’ll also help working with James McCann with whom he already has a rapport. As reported by Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, Matz threw 6-7 bullpens to McCann during the shutdown.
No, Matz wasn’t the reason the Mets signed McCann. However, that is a perk of the signing as Matz will be throwing to a better framer as well as to someone who he already has a comfortable level.
This will put Matz in the best possible position to succeed. Hopefully, this will translate to success. From what we saw from the Mets offseason thus far, they seem to believe it.
They further proved that when they didn’t trade him. As reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Toronto Blue Jays we’re interested in Matz and reached out to the Mets to engage in trade talks.
If you’re a team not interested in keeping a player, another team reaching out to have trade talks for someone you’re intending to non-tender is a godsend. It’s an opportunity to get something, anything for a player you don’t want.
That’s not Matz. The Mets wanted to keep him and weren’t trading him for it’s own sake. They had him working with a pitching coach who got the most out of him. They then signed a catcher with whom he already has a rapport.
Ultimately, in what is his final year before free agency, the Mets are doing all they can to help Matz reach that ceiling they know he’s capable of reaching. They’re letting him know they’re still very invested in his success, and maybe, just maybe, he’s a part of their future.
All told, this is going to be a very interesting year for Matz and the Mets. Maybe this could be the year he puts it all together. Certainly, the Mets are doing all they can to make sure it happens because they clearly still believe in him.
When analyzing the New York Mets roster, there are a few things they need to transform a strong core to a true World Series contender. Some of those things are a third baseman, improved defense, and more right/left balance in the lineup.
That perfectly describes Nolan Arenado.
In his latest presser, without mentioning him by name, Sandy Alderson intimated Arenado would be the type of player the Mets could look to trade for this offseason. It should come as no surprise the Mets would.
Since the Mets last made the postseason in 2016, their defense has been an embarrassment. In fact, their -242 DRS over that timeframe is by far the worst in the majors.
One of the problem areas has been third where the team has accumulated a -26 DRS. That includes the -17 DRS the incumbent third baseman, J.D. Davis, has posted over the past two seasons.
Conversely, Arenado is an eight time Gold Glove winner. In fact, he’s a perfect 8/8 in his Major League career. Since 2017, he’s easily been the best third baseman in the NL with a 55 DRS. Replacing Davis with him would just be a staggeringly defensive upgrade.
Arenado isn’t remotely slipping defensively. In 2020, he had a 15 DRS and a 7 OAA. The previous season, he had an 18 DRS and a 16 OAA. By OAA, he’s been the best defensive third baseman in each of the past two seasons.
In addition to the phenomenal defense, Arenado is a good hitter.
No, he was not remotely good in a bizarre 2020 season. All of his offensive numbers cratered. However, this past season is a complete anomaly from what we’ve seen from him in his career.
Over the three previous seasons, Arenado had a 130 wRC+. That’s 29th best in the majors over that stretch. In terms of the Mets, only Brandon Nimmo has a better wRC+ over that stretch.
This means that quite arguably if the Mets were to obtain Arenado, he’d become their best player not named Jacob deGrom. Certainly, none of the current Mets can match Arenado’s ability to field and hit.
For those who are concerned his offense won’t translate, they’re worrying too much. Yes, like every other Rockies player, he’s always had pronounced home/road splits. However, as noted by Mike Petrillo of MLB.com, “there’s no evidence that a Rockies hitter who goes elsewhere and gets regular playing time is going to fall apart.”
So, essentially, if Arenado were to leave Colorado, we should anticipate him performing the same way he always has. There’s the obvious and fair caveat here that he really struggled in 2020. Although on that point, he has a shoulder injury to his non-throwing shoulder which could’ve impacted his performance.
When you boil it all down, Arenado is a great fit for the Mets. He vastly improves the defense, and he promises to be another right-handed threat in the lineup. In terms of fit, the Mets could not do any better.
Really, the question is what will it take to get him. He’s got a no trade clause and an opt out looming. Like last year, the Los Angeles Dodgers are interested. While the Rockies may be reticent to trade Arenado intradivision, the Dodgers present real leverage to extract the most value.
We can debate just how much the Mets should give up to obtain arguably the best third baseman in baseball. What isn’t up for debate is just how much of an improvement Arenado would be over what the Mets have had at third since David Wright.
During his press conference yesterday, Mets manager Luis Rojas indicated Amed Rosario will work at third base, but he will not be working in the outfield. This plan is not something which helps Rosario or the Mets.
One of the reasons is Rosario’s bat. It doesn’t play at the position.
Mostly buttressed by a 100 wRC+ in 2019, Rosario has a career 89 wRC+. From 2016 – 2019, MLB third baseman had between a 102 – 105 wRC+. That puts a typical Rosario season well below the threshold.
To even justify Rosario at third, he’s have to play elite defense. His ability to do that is certainly up for debate.
Rosario’s defense has been gradually improving, but it appears like he’ll never reach the Gold Glove aspirations many had for him, nor will be surpass Andres Gimenez.
By OAA, he made huge strides in this shortened season going from a -8 OAA to a 2. DRS paints the same picture with his going from a -10 to a -3.
This past season, what stood out was he’s better able to go to his right. However, in a normal season, he was far better going to his left. Certainly, if he has the range for short, he should for third.
Looking at these numbers, Rosario can certainly play third. However, that’s not the issue. As noted, he needs to play at an elite level due to his bat.
Now, you could argue he’s a better option than J.D. Davis, which he certainly is. Davis is incapable of playing the position, and without the juiced ball, his offense came hurtling back to earth.
However, this shouldn’t be the test. Just being better than Davis isn’t sufficient. Again, the Mets need a real third baseman. Rosario has not shown yet he can be that with his offense being the biggest issue.
His offense won’t be as much of an issue in center. In three of the past four seasons, center fielders we’re below league average offensively. As noted, Rosario does have the tools to succeed in center.
If nothing else, Rosario should be working towards being a good center fielder. If he’s lost the shortstop job, he needs to become as versatile as possible. Learning center does that.
Overall, Rosario’s chances of success at third are not as good as his chances of success in center. Regardless, he needs to work on both as he’s now a bench player. That’s why focusing just on third is a very bad plan.
With the Cleveland Indians announcing they’re getting rid of the Indians team name and with it the final vestiges of the insanely racist Chief Wahoo, there is now a debate as to what the new name should be. There have been many fine suggestions.
One of the early front runners was the Cleveland Spiders. It makes sense because that’s a former team name and because there has already been some terrific mock-ups of what the new logo could be.
I really hope they go back to being the Cleveland Spiders, so much amazing logo potential pic.twitter.com/0EXGjMePNx
— Sam Hudson (@heroinstitute) December 14, 2020
There have been other suggestions tying the new team name to baseball history or the rock-and-roll roots of the area. Of all the ideas proposed, Mike Piazza perhaps had the best idea:
My two cents on the @Indians name change, a Negro league name? Monarchs, Buckeyes, just thinking, thoughts?#Indians #Cleveland
— Mike Piazza (@mikepiazza31) December 15, 2020
That’s a great way to turn the page forward on the teams racist past and move forward to a new, better future. It’s also a great way to honor Larry Doby who broke the AL color barrier in the same year Jackie Robinson did.
Going through Negro League history, there were a number of different teams who played in Cleveland. The team names were the Bears, Browns, Buckeyes, Cubs, Elites, Giants, Hornets, Red Sox, Tigers, Tate Stars, and Stars.
Off the bat, you know the team couldn’t be the Cubs, Giants, Red Sox, or Tigers. There are also probably issues with the Browns and Buckeyes. There are already pro sports teams named the Bears, Hornets, and Stars.
Basically, that leaves the Elites and the Tate Stars, neither of which would really work. While Tate Stars may not work, some version of the Stars might.
That’s where you could marry the idea of honoring the Negro Leagues and celebrating the city, specifically their part in the history of Rock & Roll. It’s something the team already embraces.
We saw that with the 2019 All Star Game. Cleveland was the host city, and they incorporated that history in the logo and practice jerseys.
Our city. Our game. Our logo.
Cleveland is ready to ROCK the 2019 All-Star Game. ? https://t.co/H6zy5o9s75
— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) August 7, 2018
Swagger.#AllStarGame pic.twitter.com/vMGRHMpvu2
— All-Star Game (@AllStarGame) July 9, 2019
It’s not just for special events. The McCoys hit “Hang On Sloopy” is played in the middle of the eighth. There’s also the Rock and Roll fireworks during the summers.
This is one of many directions the organization could go. Perhaps, this is the best one.
The name Cleveland Rock Stars embraces the city’s history, and it honors the Negro Leagues. To wit, it also honors Doby, who is arguably the most important figure in team history.
There are other interesting options. Whatever the organization picks, we can only hope it honors the past and the city in the way the Cleveland Rock Stars would.
In his introductory press conference, new New York Mets GM Jared Porter spoke about building depth across the 40 man roster. One area which desperately needs attention is the outfield.
Really, the Mets only have three outfielders on the roster with Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil. With respect to McNeil, he’s likely going to be the Opening Day second baseman.
Assuming the Mets sign a center fielder like George Springer, the team will still need a viable fourth outfielder who can step up and start on an extended basis if needed.
And no, Dominic Smith (-2 OAA) and J.D. Davis (-2 OAA) are not outfielders. Smith is a good defensive first baseman, and Davis is a DH. Instead of a first baseman in left, the Mets need an actual outfielder.
Looking at the free agents, there is one name which stands out – Yasiel Puig.
Puig is looking to return to baseball after missing the 2020 season. He had missed out for a variety of mostly inexplicable reasons.
First, he wasn’t signed during the original Spring Training. Then, he would sign a deal with the Atlanta Braves in July. However, that deal fell through when Puig tested positive for COVID19.
Likely, that leaves Puig looking for a one year deal to rebuild value. In the event there are no starting jobs available, the Mets would be a good fit.
When Puig last played, he still had very good speed. He also had improved defensive numbers in right after an unexpected one year drop off in 2018.
In 2019, he struggled offensively by his standards. His 101 wRC+ was tied for a career worst. That was surprising partially because he posted a career best exit velocity. Whatever the case, at worst, Puig can be anticipated provide league average offense. He has a much higher ceiling than that too.
Puig also has some defensive versatility. While he’s spent most of his career in right, he has played center and left. On that point, Puig has been playing center in the Winter Leagues.
Yasiel Puig, playing for the first time since last September, made this athletic play to rob #Angels Luis Rengifo of a hit in LIDOM tonight.
Puig’s initial read wasn’t great but the correction worked out
pic.twitter.com/3sfeeSCgC3— Maria Torres (@maria_torres3) December 11, 2020
That work helps him be more versatile. Having a bench player who can play all three outfield positions would be of an enormous benefit to the Mets.
Puig does seem well suited to play in New York as he thrives in the spotlight. He possesses all the tools to be successful with good speed as well as a history of playing good defense and posting strong offensive numbers.
All told, this would make him a great bench option and insurance policy against a Nimmo or Conforto injury. If MLB refuses to acknowledge reason and instead implemented the universal DH, Puig can help be part of that rotation.
There’s a lot of ways Puig can help the Mets, and he’s the best option available for this role. The only issue is whether he’s willing to accept this role. Given his year away from baseball, he might. If so, the Mets should push to sign him.
When it comes to Brandon Nimmo, there’s a lot to like. He hustles all the time, he’s fast, and he’s an on base machine. He’s also a pretty good defensive outfielder.
Well, that’s the case if you keep him out of center.
By all accounts, Nimmo should be good there. He’s got the speed to thrive. He busts it all the time. Seeing him at the plate, you know he has a good eye.
And yet, he’s never posted a positive DRS or UZR in center. He did enter 2020 with a 3 OAA, but with his -4 OAA in center this year, he’s a -1 OAA now for his career.
Now, you could make the argument Nimmo was a positive OAA in previous years, and as such, he could be counted upon to be that again. After all, 2020 was a bizarre year which led to many strange outlier results.
That said, 2020 was also the first time Nimmo was an everyday CF at the Major League level. As a result, all the stats we see on him are the results of a small sample size.
The only thing we can see is his OAA is starting to reflect what we’ve seen with his DRS and UZR. The reason for that is quite likely is his Jump numbers have always been poor.
In 2020, Nimmo was a -1.7 feet vs. average. The previous year he was -0.2. In 2018, he was a 0.1. Fact is, he’s not getting that initial break on the ball, and his ability to do so seems to be regressing.
Now, you could well argue he plays passable enough defense in center, and there is some indications he could halt the regression and improve. Unfortunately, that’s a poor approach to handling the position.
As previously noted, there’s a correlation between strong outfield defense and winning. That’s especially the case with CF defense. Take a look at the last few World Series winners:
- 2020 – Cody Bellinger (5 DRS/7 OAA)
- 2019 – Victor Robles (23 DRS/22 OAA)
- 2018 – Jackie Bradley Jr. (-1 DRS/9 OAA)
- 2017 – George Springer (6 DRS/1 OAA)
With respect to Bradley, that’s where we see a DRS/OAA split. While he rated poorly in DRS that season, he had a very strong 9 OAA. The DRS/OAA differences aside, we see strong center field defense is a necessity if you want to win.
Sure, Nimmo can be passable at times. You could argue he may not hurt you. However, he doesn’t help the Mets at a crucial defensive position, one of increased importance in the launch angle era.
Looking back at the above list, both Bradley and Springer are available this offseason. While Bradley may not be a good investment, Springer is everything the Mets need and want in center.
Springer is a good defensive center fielder. He’s a right handed bat in a heavy left handed hitting lineup. He’s a player who pushes Nimmo to LF where he belongs.
Nimmo is a good left fielder. Springer is a good center fielder. Finally, Michael Conforto is good in right. That’s an outfield alignment which helps secures outs and rakes. Arguably, it would be the best in the game.
No matter how many ways you look at it, the Mets are best served getting Nimmo out of center and getting a real center fielder, preferably Springer. If they do that, this Mets team takes a massive step forward towards winning a World Series.
In an ideal world, the New York Mets would be looking to sign Mookie Betts this offseason. It would’ve been an absolutely perfect signing for the team.
The second best player in the sport helping the Steve Cohen era get off on the right foot. The right-handed bat to compliment a heavy left-handed hitting lineup. A player gifted enough to play center for the next decade.
However, it’s not happening because the Los Angeles Dodgers went all out to not only obtain him from the Boston Red Sox, but they also gave him the extension he wanted. As such, he’ll spend 13 years with the Dodgers and none with the Mets.
This is not the first time we’ve seen a future Hall of Famer eschew free agency by signing an extension with his new team. In fact, the Mets once benefitted from this by trading for and signing Mike Piazza.
That’s one of the benefits a team receives by obtaining that player. They get the exclusive window to negotiate with and sign the player. They also have that opportunity if they make the player signing an extension a condition precedent to making a trade.
That’s something to be mindful of with Francisco Lindor and Nolan Arenado on the trade bloc. These are quite possibly two future Hall of Famers the Mets can go out and obtain right now.
There is a need for both players. With Arenado, he’s arguably the best third baseman in baseball, and the Mets are in desperate need of one.
Lindor may not be as obvious when the Mets have Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario. With Lindor, it boils down to this team is not good enough as it, and they need premium talent to push them over the top. The best shortstop in the game goes a long way in accomplishing that.
If the Mets can get either player (preferably both), they need to do it. You don’t run the risk of another organization stepping up ad obtaining that player because if that happens they can be the ones who give Lindor or Arenado an extension ensuring they don’t hit the free agent market.
No, that doesn’t mean you make the trade for its own sake, and by no means should the Mets overpay. That said, when you have Gimenez and Rosario as well as Dominic Smith and Pete Alonso, you have valuable cost controlled depth which can be a big piece in getting a Lindor or Arenado.
Really, the Mets don’t need two shortstops and two first basemen. They need a Lindor and/or an Arenado. They need to get them now to prevent another team from locking them up.
Instead, the Mets need to do what the Dodgers did with Betts. Get the superstar. Use their financial muscle to get that superstar to sign an extension. Then, they can go win the World Series.
One of the WFAN shows inquired whether Mets fans were starting to “feel anxious.” With all due respect, there’s no reason for any Mets fan to feel this way.
The team has an offer out to James McCann. So far, he has not signed with the Mets, but then again, he hasn’t agreed to terms with anyone. In the event McCann does the unexpected and signs with another team, J.T. Realmuto is still a free agent.
In addition to McCann and Realmuto, the following players remain on the free agent market:
There are many, many more players past that as none of the big ticket free agents have signed. On that note, the Mets have already had a great start to free agency by already bringing Marcus Stroman and Trevor May aboard.
In addition to the free agent market, we haven’t seen the main targets get traded. Those players include but aren’t limited to the following:
There are many more players available beyond that group. Much like the free agents, we have yet to see that blockbuster trade happen. So long as all of these players are available and there remains a multitude of options, there is absolutely no reason to feel anxious.
Remember, these are not the same old Mets. The Wilpons are gone and have been replaced by Steve Cohen. The Mets have money and will not have Jeff Wilpon interfering with Sandy Alderson running a competent organization.
Mets fans just need to relax and wait and see what the team will do this offseason. Based upon how it’s started and the resources available, the only anxiousness Mets fans will likely feel is for the season to come as soon as possible.
The New York Mets have a number of needs this offseason, and they’re oft discussed. However, the biggest one that’s overlooked is the giant hole at third base.
Simply put, the Mets cannot afford to put J.D. Davis there again. He’s been terrible at the position in his career, and there’s really no reason to expect any different in 2021.
In his career, Davis has a -19 DRS and -5 OAA in 770.0 MLB innings. With his posting a -8 DRS and -3 OAA at the position in 2020, it would appear his skills are regressing instead of progressing. When you break it down, he’s no more than a 1B/DH thereby leaving the Mets searching for a third baseman.
That’s a spot which likely would’ve gone to Jeff McNeil, who had his own issues at third. However, with Robinson Cano‘s suspension, it would seem McNeil is the everyday second baseman. Accordingly, the Mets will have to look outside the organization to fulfill their third base vacancy.
That is problematic because the options available aren’t great.
As previously addressed, former Met Justin Turner is probably the best option. There are underlying issues with Turner including his age, and whether he’d be willing to return to Queens.
After Turner, one popular name in some circles is DJ LeMahieu. There are a number of reasons to be skeptical of LeMahieu including his stats being Yankee Stadium fueled, his price tag, and his declining defense. There’s also the issue of his not actually being a third baseman even if he can reasonably be expected to transition.
After those two, it’s a pretty severe drop-off. Former Mets Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker are probably the next best options, but at this point in their careers, they’re best served being utility players.
Of course all of this depends upon your impression of Ha-Seong Kim. The Kiwoom Heros of the KBO have posted him. With that, he really looks to be the first KBO shortstop entering his prime to come to the MLB.
MLB Trade Rumors calls Kim a “unicorn given his blend of age, power, speed and defensive aptitude at a premium position.”
While Kim is a shortstop, he’s split time between short and third. It will be interesting to see how well he could play in the majors. That said, he’s awfully tantalizing in a very shallow free agent group.
In fact, given Turner’s age and LeMahieu’s many question marks, Kim may be the best option available. In fact, he could be the only real option available to the Mets.
With that being the case, the Mets are in a very difficult situation. They’re either looking to overpay Turner or LeMahieu to get them to come to a team they don’t necessarily want to join, or they’re rolling the dice on Kim. After that, it’s either an internal option or a trade, which is much easier said than done.
So far, the New York Mets have had to proceed building a roster without a General Manager. Of course, when you have Sandy Alderson in charge, your organization is well equipped to forge forward, but at some point a team wants and needs a GM.
For his part, Mets owner Steve Cohen is surprised the team does not have a GM. The Mets not having a GM has led to some insane theories, but there is likely a much more plausible theories.
For starters, we know many organizations have not permitted the Mets to interview many of the Mets targets. It’s difficult to hire people when you’re blocked from doing so.
We saw another obstacle with former Mets pitcher Chris Young. He interviewed for the Mets GM job and soon thereafter accept the Texas Rangers GM job. He had taken his name out of consideration for the Mets job due to family reasons.
It’s very likely many candidates are doing that at the moment. While unspoken, we probably should not discount COVID19 as one of the reasons why.
COVID19 has changed nearly every aspect of our lives. One significant area is our ability to travel. That makes uprooting your life to move to New York all the more difficult of a decision.
Take Young right now. The State of New York has a two week quarantine for people traveling to non-contiguous states. Given the nature of the GM job, you really can’t be out of commission for two weeks.
As a result, if you accept the Mets GM job, you don’t see your family for a lengthy unspecified period of time. Yes, your spouse and children will come, but you leave never knowing when you will ever see your parents or siblings again.
You’re also uprooting your life during a pandemic. The process of finding a new home and schools for your children is far too impacted to make the educated and well researched decisions you’d normally undertake.
No, that doesn’t mean you can’t hire anyone at all. Kim Ng took the job with the Miami Marlins, and Sandy Alderson did return to the Mets organization. Still, with all the people turning down this Mets GM job you can’t help but wonder why.
The Mets GM job may be the best one in all of pro sports. There’s a terrific core, and there are tremendous resources at their disposal to make a perennial World Series contender. Something isn’t adding up.
Right now, no one really knows the real reason people are being reluctant to accept the Mets GM job. When that happens, you really have to wonder what is happening.
Yes, it is pure conjecture, but at this point, we do have to wonder if COVID19 is impacting not only the Mets ability to interview the candidates they want, but also their ability to get those candidates to uproot their lives during a pandemic.