Well, due to COVID19, the Denver Broncos were forced to play a game today without a QB. Instead, they took an undrafted WR off their practice squad, and they had him start at QB.
The Broncos predictively lost. It was a 31-3 loss as that undrafted WR, Kendall Hinton, was 1/9 for 13 yards and two picks.
Presumably, the Broncos turned over every stone to try to get the win. At some point, you wonder if they called Tim Tebow. It would make sense for them to have done it with Tebow being a former QB, and the QB staying in shape as Tebow tries to become a Major League Baseball player.
On that front, Tebow seems no closer to reaching that goal. He’s dealt with injuries the last few years, and he only hit .163/.240/.255 in 77 Triple-A games last year.
With his production and lack of progress, the Mets understandably did not protect Tebow from the Rule 5 Draft. There’s no reason to believe the 33 year old will get drafted. There’s perhaps less reason to believe Tebow will ever reach the majors.
There’s reasons why Tebow won’t make it to the majors. There is a question of his dedication with his scheduling events during Spring Training and his SEC broadcast work. Mostly, he was just away from baseball too long while he dedicated his life to being an NFL QB.
Maybe ironically, that chance presented itself. We don’t know if the Broncos or Tebow reached out to make that happen. What we do know is Tebow wasn’t a QB on Sunday, and Tebow is not doing enough to play in the MLB in 2021 on any Sunday.
There are several reasons you could justify not pursuing J.T. Realmuto. Those reasons are Yasmani Grandal, Christian Vazquez, Mitch Garver, Travis d’Arnaud, Roberto Perez, etc.
Put another way, if you’re not at least pursuing Realmuto, you better have a bona fide starting catcher behind the plate. Short of that, the discussion why you’re not pursuing Realmuto faces scrutiny.
Yes, you can reasonably prefer James McCann. That goes double if you’re understandably leery of giving a soon to be 30 year old catcher a big contract. A team could determine they have more pressing holes, and/or they need to allocate their money differently to build a more complete roster.
Still, you have to at least inquire on Realmuto. He’s the best catcher available, and he’s arguably the best player available on the free agent market.
If you don’t have a set starting catcher, you need to talk to Realmuto. That includes the Phillies who gave up an impressive Sixto Sanchez to obtain him.
But no, the Phillies aren’t pursuing him. Instead, they’re going to claim they’re too broke to try to sign him. Other teams are claiming the same. They’ll claim broke and no revenues despite MLB signing a billion dollar TV contract.
That’s in addition to local broadcasting and advertising revenues.
But for some reason, teams want us to believe there’s no money to spend. As a result, they won’t pursue players who can improve their team, and in turn, increase interest and revenues for their team.
That’s fine. Teams like the Phillies who once claimed they’d stupid money to win can cry poor while Steve Cohen judiciously spends to get the players the Mets need to win. Thanks to the Phillies, there’s once less suitor to drive up Realmuto’s price tag.
After nearly 20 years of the Wilpons, Mets fans finally have an owner who gets it. Steve Cohen is one of us, and just like us, he wants the Mets to win.
Instead of building an homage to the Brooklyn Dodgers, he’s bringing back Old Timers Day.
Instead of letting rumors fester and worsen, he and Sandy Alderson called a press conference to address the status of the team.
Instead of shopping for a group of ill fitting and cheap free agents, the Mets are looking at the top of the free agent and trade markets.
Instead of a former agent miscast as a GM, Sandy Alderson, a baseball legend in his own right, is in charge.
Instead of being laughingstocks, the Mets are now feared and respected.
So, this Thanksgiving, Mets fans are mostly thankful for Steve Cohen as he embarks on an era of Mets baseball which we all help will rival (or better yet surpass) the Nelson Doubleday/Frank Cashen led Mets teams.
Happy Thanksgiving!
With reports the Tampa Bay Rays are willing to entertain trades for Blake Snell, this would seemingly be the perfect time for the New York Mets to act. When you look at it, Snell would presumably fill a short and long term fit for the franchise.
Even with Marcus Stroman in the fold, the Mets need to find at least one more starting pitcher. Ideally, they would want two more. Snell would not only fill that need, but he could help make the Mets rotation once again the envy of all of baseball.
Snell also would fill another starting pitching need. After the 2021 season, Steven Matz, Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard will be free agents. That will leave the Mets looking to fill at least 2/5 of their 2022 starting rotation. If you have Snell in the fold that will lessen that burden. The question for the Mets is how much Snell would be worth pursuing.
When many look at Snell, they see the pitcher who won the 2018 Cy Young Award. Our lasting impression of him was his dominant performance in Game 6 of the 2020 World Series before he was inexplicably lifted early. When you look at him from that lens, Snell is an ace level pitcher. When an ace level pitcher available, you need to pursue that pitcher heavily.
However, there are real questions if that is what Snell truly is. Really, when you break it down, Snell’s 2018 Cy Young award winning season has been a complete outlier in his career.
In Snell’s first two seasons, he had a 108 ERA+, 3.87 FIP, 4.5 BB/9, and an 8.9 K/9 while averaging 5.0 innings per start. In the two seasons since winning his Cy Young, Snell had a 111 ERA+, 3.65 FIP, 3.3 BB/9, and a 12.0 K/9 while averaging 4.2 innings per start. Certainly, these past two years have been a significant improvement over what he was over his first two years, but those stats are not remotely indicative of an ace level pitcher.
Of course, this is the Rays, so the analysis is not that simple. Remember, the Rays focus on not allowing their pitchers to go through the rotation a certain amount of times, and they are very strong believers in bullpenning. As a result, it is very arguable their handling of Snell has stunted his ability to again be what he was in 2018.
Taking a deeper look, Snell does have good stuff. Looking at his Baseball Savant page, Snell has elite to near elite fastball velocity and spin, and he has terrific whiff numbers. However, that is only part of the picture. When you dig deeper, you see his spin rates on his change and curve have significantly worsened since his Cy Young season. That said, after struggling with his slider in 2019, he was able to regain his slider spin rate in 2020.
All told, it is really difficult to ascertain what Snell’s trajectory will be. You could argue this is a pitcher who needs to get away from Tampa Bay to permit him to really focus on being able to become the ace level pitcher he can be instead of a five inning starter. You could also argue the Rays know his limitations and that their handling of him allows him to put up such high strikeout numbers, and as a result, with another organization, he may truly suffer.
In some ways, when you see the Rays dangling Snell, you can’t help but be gun shy due to the Chris Archer trade. For many, Archer was a pitcher who could thrive away from Tampa Bay. He was a pitcher with a similarly team friendly contract, and as a result, the Rays were able to extract a kings ransom for him. Now, Archer had his option declined due to TOS issues, and the Pirates are routinely chided for giving up Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and Shane Baz.
That’s not to say or suggest the Rays knowingly traded damaged goods. That is an unfair and unsubstantiated claim. Rather, this just highlights how well the Rays self scout their team, and it shows their ability to extract a significant price in return for their players. Assuredly, if the Rays do in fact trade Snell, they are likely going to try to command an Archer like return, and really, they should do that.
If you are a team like the Mets, and you want Snell, you better be right. You need the utmost confidence in Jeremy Hefner, Jeremy Accardo, and Phil Regan in their ability to not only return Snell to his 2018 form but to keep him there for the ensuing three seasons. If you are not, the Mets as an organization should not be pursuing Snell. Instead, they can look towards a very interesting starting pitching market which still has Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton, Jose Quintana, and others available.
Better yet, they could be using their financial capital to give Stroman and Syndergaard extensions while keeping their player capital in place to swing deals for other areas of need. That said, adding Snell to those two starters and Jacob deGrom is awfully enticing . . . .
Since Brodie Van Wagenen began assembling his team, the overture was this was a team well built for the DH. In 2020, because of a pandemic, the Mets actually did get that DH. After all that hypothesizing about how much it would help the Mets, the end result was a last place finish.
There are many reasons why, and assuredly many would point to the pitching. However, it went much deeper than that. One of the big issues was team defense.
Again, the Mets team defense was atrocious with a -22 DRS. That was good for fifth worst in the majors. Over the past three seasons, the Mets -171 DRS is the worst in the National League and second worst in all of the majors.
This is in large part to an organizational philosophy which pre-dated Van Wagenen. The thought was to acquire as many bats as possible and to find a position for them. The Mets have been all too happy to get players and just stick them somewhere on the diamond.
This has led to J.D. Davis at third and left. Dominic Smith in left field. Brandon Nimmo in center. Michael Conforto playing all three outfield positions. Jeff McNeil playing four different positions. This goes on and on, and in some ways you can trace this tomfoolery all the way back to Lucas Duda playing the outfield.
Perhaps part of this has been the result of Jeff Wilpon running the baseball operations. That said, there has been a prevailing thought process with the Mets to not make the difficult decisions and to hold onto all of their good players. They have found it more prudent to play players out of position resulting in horrible defense, and as a result, the team failing to live up to their sometimes lofty expectations.
Now, taking a look at the Mets current roster, you can say Smith at first base and Pete Alonso at DH is an embarrassment of riches. In Alonso and Smith, the Mets have two cornerstone cost controlled players. As an organization, this is quite an enviable position. When you have those two spots with such high caliber and ceiling players, you don’t want to move on from them. That goes double when you can play them each everyday at first base and DH.
However, that is part of the problem.
While the Mets are set at first and DH, they are a disaster at other important positions. They don’t have a starting catcher, and really, their depth at the position is a question mark. They have no one really capable of playing third base on an everyday basis. They lack anyone in the organization truly capable of playing center everyday. The Mets desperately need at least 2/5 of a starting rotation filled, and they also need to build a bullpen.
Beyond that, the Mets have zero depth at Triple-A, and their Double-A depth is questionable. Put another way, the Mets are a mess, and even with Steve Cohen’s deep pockets, not every one of these areas can be addressed in free agency. It just can’t.
No, the Mets need to be put in a difficult position to have to make hard decisions. Frankly, the trade market sets up extraordinarily well for that right now. At the moment, we know Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor, and Blake Snell on the trade bloc. There are very likely other high profile players there for the taking as well.
Given how Van Wagenen ravaged the Mets farm system, there really isn’t the prospect capital to make those trades. Sure, you can trade a Brett Baty or a Mark Vientos, but if you do that, you take the paper thin depth you have and tear through it leaving you with next to no hope for the future. No, if the Mets are going to take that next step, they are going to have to take the surplus they have at positions like first, and they are going to have to make hard choices and make shrewd trades for top end talent at areas they have significant deficiencies.
If there is no DH, the Mets would almost be forced to move at least one of Alonso or Smith to get that top end player. However, with the DH, the impetus is not there. In fact, you could argue it irresponsible to not go into next season with both Alonso and Smith if there was a DH. As noted, therein lies the problem.
The Mets aren’t really in a position to trade top end talent for top end talent in a world where there is a DH. But, if they want real baseball in the National League in 2021, the Mets would be in prime position to do it, and teams would likely line up to grab one of Alonso or Smith thereby driving up the return the Mets could receive.
So yes, given the roster construct, you could argue the Mets are better with the DH. However, in terms of building the roster, the DH stagnates growth and creativity. The impetus to make a trade is gone, and with that, you likely lose out on the ability to make the Mets the best possible team they could be in 2021.
And besides all of that, the DH is bad for the Mets because it is bad for baseball. The short-sighted hope for 2021 needs to be counter-balanced against the next 10-100 years. When you look at it that way, pushing for a completely ineffective gimmick is just plain bad for baseball, and as a result, bad for the Mets.
The Mets are in need of a centerfielder this offseason, George Springer is obviously the top target. Arguably, he is THE top target for the Mets. The problem for the Mets is Springer will be that for several baseball teams.
One of those teams is his hometown team Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox not only offer a return to home for Springer, but they also have Alex Cora, who Springer developed a good relationship with during their time on the Houston Astros. Combine that with the Red Sox deep pockets (even if they cry poor), and even with Steve Cohen, he may be difficult to sign.
If that is the case, the Mets will need to look towards their Plan B. Perhaps the top Plan B option is Jackie Bradley Jr.
The positives with Bradley is his defense. This past year, he was the second best center fielder with a 7 OAA. DRS doesn’t rank him as high, but his 5 OAA did rank him as fifth best.
The OAA mark wasn’t a short sample size anomaly with Bradley’s 6 OAA ranking him 14th. His -2 DRS tells a different story. In 2018, he was at a -1 DRS. Really, when you look at it, there has been a wide disparity between how OAA and DRS views Bradley’s defense.
According to OAA, he’s a very good fielder, and DRS has him as slightly below average. Splitting the difference, from 2018 – 2020, Bradley’s 7.9 UZR is the fourth best among center fielders.
There is a potential reason for that disparity. As described quite well and in-depth by MLB Tonights‘ Eric Byrnes, center field in Fenway Park is very complicated.
No matter which metric you rely, it is a clear Bradley would be a significant upgrade defensively at an important position. That said, there is a debate as to how much of an upgrade he represents. There is also the issue as to how long he can be that upgrade.
Next year, Bradley will be 31. While he hasn’t show issues with slowing down per se, he has never been fast for his position. In fact, even at his quickest in 2018, his 27.8 ft/sec sprint speed was only 50th best at the position.
Really, Bradley relies upon positioning and a good quick jump to field his position. In terms of positioning, the Mets promise to truly fortify the front office, which would give him what he needs to succeed from a positioning standpoint. However, once he loses a step, his days in center may well be over.
That is very problematic for Bradley as he is not a very good offensive player. For his career, he is only a 93 wRC+. Heading into 2020, he was really declining at the plate posting a 90 wRC+ over the previous three seasons.
That indicates his 119 wRC+ in 2020 was a complete outlier. When you dig through the numbers, it was a the result of a wholly unreliable small sample size. His .343 BABIP will regress back to his .298 career mark. According to his Baseball Savant page, his hard hit percentage and exit velocities are in a three year decline.
This all makes Bradley a massive risk. He’s at an age when his skills will be in decline. That does double for his speed and jump. He does not have the bat where he can play at a corner outfield position. Really, where his bat is now, you cannot justify playing him everyday unless he is playing a very good to elite center field.
If you are the Mets, this should be a good indication Springer needs to be the top target this offseason, and he may be the player they need to go past their point of comfort to ensure he comes to the Mets. If not Springer, there aren’t really any viable Plan B options because it would seem Bradley isn’t one.
With the rise of Andres Gimenez, the Mets are already moving on in some ways from Amed Rosario. To wit, the are reports Rosario will be moved to a utility role in 2021.
This should come as no surprise as Rosario has been given time to establish himself as the Mets everyday shortstop. Unfortunately, for a myriad of reasons, that hasn’t happened. With a better SS option on the Major League roster, Rosario needs to play somewhere.
Looking at the Mets current roster, there are holes at third and center. Presumably, Rosario could fill either spot.
In terms of third, his continued marked improvement at short with his strong arm suggests he could play very well there. That said, there should be some reservation over his ability to go to his left.
Of course, the bigger issue is his bat. At a career 89 wRC+, including a regression in 2020, his bat won’t play at third.
It would, however, play in center. The bigger issue is whether he can play the position. There are strong indications he can.
In his career, Rosario has exhibited elite sprint speed. Even with his 28.7 ft/second being a career low, he’d still rank in the top 20 among center fielders (if he played the position).
Really, he has the speed to not only play center, but to play the position at a high level. With Luis Rojas, he also has a manager in place who can get him quickly up to speed in center.
Now, the obvious rebuttal is there are better options than Rosario in center. That’s absolutely true. Either George Springer or Jackie Bradley Jr. would be a significant upgrade.
The Mets should absolutely pursue them as well as other options. That said, just because the Mets have significant interest and money to spend doesn’t de facto mean they’ll land either player. For example, the Red Sox also have very deep pockets and are rumored to be interested in Springer.
The Mets may also need or want to allocate their offseason budget towards the pitching staff and catcher. Neither of those areas are going to be cheap to address in free agency.
As such, the Mets need a viable CF alternative plan. Given his skill set and the need to find a position for him, the Mets should be preparing the Rosario in CF contingency plan.
If for no other reason, the Mets should pursue this path for Rosario to make him more versatile and to make him a backup at the position.
Mark Buehrle is one of those Hall of Fame candidates some immediate dismiss only to keep returning to the name. One of the reasons why is he had a long career where he was at least a good pitcher for 15 years.
It’s amazing to think he had a 15 year career with just two of those years being under a 100 ERA+. One of those years was a 95 and the other a 99. In both of those seasons, he surpassed 200 innings.
For 14 straight years, Buehrle surpassed 200 innings, and he fell just 1.1 innings of hitting that mark in his final season. That 14 year stretch was one short of tying the all-time record jointly held by Cy Young, Don Sutton, Gaylord Perry, and Warren Spahn.
There’s some more impressive feats and company. Buehrle is tied for third all-time with 15 consecutive 30 start seasons. He’s tied with Perry and behind just Spahn and Young. Notably, in all 15 of those seasons Buehrle won 10+ games.
Buehrle was thrown two hitters with one of those two being a perfect game. That is a feat which has been accomplished only by NUMBER of other pitchers – Sandy Koufax, Young, Roy Halladay, Randy Johnson, Jim Bunning, and Addie Joss. Those are all Hall of Famers.
When you see that group, it gives you some pause and makes you realize Buehrle does merit a closer look. In that closer look, you see he’s been better than some Hall of Fame pitchers.
Both Buehrle and Whitey Ford pitched 16 years with Buehrle having the higher WAR. However, it should be noted Ford had lost two years to military service and had postseason success.
Bunning pitched one more year than Buehrle. Buehrle had a higher ERA+ than Bunning. In fact, Buehrle also had a higher ERA+ than several Hall of Famers. That includes Niekro and Sutton.
That also includes Jack Morris who was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame by the Veteran’s Committee. Looking at these two, Buehrle had the better WAR, ERA, ERA*, and K/BB among other stats.
That’s what so interesting about Buehrle. When you dig deep into the numbers you see a pitcher who compares quite well to pitchers inducted into the Hall of Fame. That includes those inducted fairly recently.
Yes, Buehrle does fall short in a number of areas. For example, the average Hall of Fame starter has a 73.3 WAR, 50.0 WAR7, and a 61.6 JAWS. Buehrle is at a 59.1/35.8/47.4.
Still, Buehrle accomplished things in his career only Hall of Famers have accomplished. He’s consistently in Hall of Fame company when you examine his career.
Ultimately, what this should tell us is Buehrle has a career which merits further consideration. Hopefully, he passes the five percent mark to permit us to do that instead of letting the Veterans Committee take an ad hoc look at him in the future.
Take out Robinson Cano‘s PED suspensions, and he was going to be a sure-fire, first-ballot Hall of Famer. Really, when you break it down, the conversation around Cano wasn’t going to be whether he was inducted, but rather, where he ranked all-time among second basemen. That’s how good Cano has been in his career.
Naturally, Cano’s PED suspensions changed that. Instead of looking at him as a Hall of Famer, the discussion has shifted. Now, it is seen as a fait accompli Cano will not be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. At this point, there are even some who are at least inferring Cano will be five percented off the ballot when his candidacy arises:
Hall of Fame ballots are arriving. Robinson Cano will likely be on one of those someday. Hard to see him getting any support now.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) November 18, 2020
While you can excuse the rush to judgment hot takes, in reality, it is bizarre people would hold that position at all. Certainly, Hall of Fame voting has given no indication whatsoever Cano will be a one-and-done when he hits the Hall of Fame ballot.
For that, we have to look no further than Manny Ramirez. Ramirez was the first player to fail two different PED tests. Despite that, he has lasted four years on the ballot. In fact, he has gone from 23.8% of the vote in his first year to 28.2% last year. No, those four gained votes doesn’t truly propel him towards the Hall of Fame, but he is still hanging on the ballot as the continued referendum on other PED users nears its conclusion.
This year is going to be the penultimate year on the ballot for Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. At a 61.0% and 60.7% respectively, both players have been at least trending towards induction. Remember, both players debuted on the ballot with relatively low vote totals. In fact, in 2013, Bonds only received 36.2% of the vote, and Clemens received 37.6%.
Both players have steadily climbed, and there have been more than a few voters whose early positions have changed due to Bud Selig and Tony La Russa being inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. As Mike Vaccaro of the New York Post said when opting to begin voting for PED users, “Selig getting in was a game changer for me.”
Certainly, Bonds and/or Clemens getting in could be game changers for other voters. On that point, no one can be quite sure whether they get in via the BBWAA vote over the course of the next two votes. If they are not inducted by that point, it’s well within the realm of possibility a Veteran’s Committee electorate who not only inducted people like Selig, LaRussa, and Joe Torre, each of whom were propelled into the Hall of Fame due to PED user, but may also may be very sympathetic to PED users will induct Bonds and Clemens on their own volition.
If that were to occur, testing positive will no longer be seen as a bar to induction into the Hall of Fame. If that is the case, we should see players like Ramirez get an uptick in voting. By natural extension, Cano’s chances would then be bolstered as well.
At this point, it is was too early to predict whether Cano will be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Really, the only thing we do know is there are a number of test cases ahead of him, and very likely, there is going to be eight more years before this is even up for a debate. When we get to that point, lets see what has happened with Bonds, Clemens, and Ramirez before addressing the topic of what Cano’s second PED test has on his Hall of Fame chances.
With his contract up and new ownership in place, Terry Collins has departed the New York Mets and has announced his retirement.
There’s a lot to say about Collins and his tenure as Mets manager. More than the wins and losses was Collins the person. He is a good and decent man who connected with everyone, and he’s going to be missed.
We’ve seen it from fans who remember him celebrating with them in Chicago. His players, like Noah Syndergaard, always spoke highly of him and continue to do so
I will always be grateful to this man. Simply an amazing human. Thank you TC. https://t.co/BEoeD0YmX7
— Noah Syndergaard (@Noahsyndergaard) November 20, 2020
It’s not just what we saw and heard from Collins. It is what he did when no one was looking.
Five years ago, as the Mets were going through a mercurial season which ended in heartbreak, Collins took the time to send condolences to a widow of a family he didn’t know.
For me, that’ll be the lasting memory of Collins. He was a man who took the time to do the right thing even when his job was extremely difficult and tense. He did it when no one was looking.
Overall, Collins is a good man, and you’re never better off as an organization when you lose genuinely good human beings like him.
Being the person he is, he still has a lot to offer the world. No matter what he does, here’s hoping he finds something which brings him as much joy as watching his team win a pennant. As a man, he deserves that and much more.