Zack Wheeler
There is a massive caveat here the sale of the New York Mets from Sterling Equities to Steve Cohen has not yet been finalized. That said, for all intents and purposes, even with Fred Wilpon the CEO and Jeff Wilpon the COO, Cohen is the man who will be calling the shots.
That is the way it is with owners. The buck stops with them. We’re seeing the beginnings of it. In fact, as stated in a New York Post article, “Cohen must now approve, at minimum, all major allocations and, more importantly, can control the budget and decide to spend considerably more on payroll.”
That’s a very important point because it means Cohen at least had a say in the decision to let Zack Wheeler sign with the Philadelphia Phillies. Remember, Wheeler came back to the Mets with the Phillies to give the team a chance to make the last offer.
The Mets never did make an offer to Wheeler. That’s all the more maddening when you consider he signed at a discount both in terms of value and in terms of offers received. In the wake of the initial euphoria of the news regarding the Wilpons selling the team, we actually lost sight of how the Mets now have money to spend on free agents.
So far, that money has not been spent on Wheeler even with the competitive balance tax purportedly no longer being an issue.
Now, we know nothing of Cohen’s thought process, how he’s going to run this team, or when exactly he plans to spend. Perhaps, passing on Wheeler will allow the Mets to unexpectedly pursue players like Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg.
Perhaps, he is taking a longer term view and looking to make sure the team can re-sign Noah Syndergaard and Michael Conforto. Maybe, Cohen is waiting until the Wilpons are no longer in a position of power.
Fact is, right now, we just don’t know.
At the moment, the only thing we do know is Wheeler is a member of the Philadelphia Phillies. The other thing we know is we know nothing about what comes next.
We don’t know the budget, or when the team will finally spend. However, for once, we do know the team will spend. They’ll do what is necessary to win games. That is not something which has been a given with the Mets since Ryan Church flied out and Tom Seaver threw one last pitch to Mike Piazza.
Mets fans can also do something they haven’t done in decades. They can give ownership the benefit of the doubt. We can now entertain there were plausible reasons for passing on Wheeler other than the Wilpons not willing to pay a de minis luxury tax while pocketing tens of millions from the insurance policies on David Wright‘s and Yoenis Cespedes‘ contracts as well as the deferred portion of Jacob deGrom‘s 2020 salary.
Until proven otherwise, there’s a plan. There’s an ability to run this as not just a New York team but a competently run baseball franchise. Finally, there’s hope.
So yes, Cohen failed to sign Wheeler, which in and of itself, is a bad decision, especially at that contract. However, right now, there is no reason to expect more of the same, and that’s a good feeling.
Today should have been a terrible day in Mets history. Despite his desperately wanting to stay with the Mets, the team made no offer to Zack Wheeler. That was even the case with him accepting a discounted deal he gave the Mets to match or beat.
Still, even with Wheeler leaving, today was one of the greatest days in New York Mets history. In fact, it may be better than the day Tom Seaver fell into the Mets laps, Cleon Jones caught Davey Johnson‘s fly ball, Mookie Wilson hit a little dribbler up the first base line, Jesse Orosco threw his glove in the air, or the day the Mets obtained Mike Piazza.
If this seems like hyperbole, it isn’t, at least not too much of it. As we saw in 1980 when Nelson Doubleday purchased the Mets, ownership means everything in pro sports. One day, you’re completely irrelevant playing in Grant’s Tomb, and the next, you’re in the greatest stretch in franchise history obtaining Keith Hernandez and Gary Carter to help the team win the second World Series in franchise history.
These types of things were no longer possible. Not really. Between Jeff Wilpon’s mismanagement and the extremely restricted finances in the wake of the Madoff scandal, the Mets couldn’t continue a prolonged run.
After that shocking 2015 pennant, the Mets lost the Wild Card Game the following year and were under .500 in each of the successive two years. Much of the reason why was a series of penny wise pound foolish decisions.
That can now change with Steve Cohen increasing his ownership share in the Mets from 4% to 80%. With that the Mets went from the Wilpons who are not billionaires to someone who is the richest owner in baseball.
This means it’s no longer a fait accompli Noah Syndergaard and Michael Conforto are as good as gone when they hit free agency. It means there’s a good chance Jacob deGrom gets the chance David Wright never did – to be the face of a Mets team truly dedicated to winning.
The Wilpons are gone or soon will be. With them leaving and being replaced by a man with deep pockets and an ability to properly run an organization, anything is possible.
For his part, it’s sad Wheeler won’t get to experience it. For Mets fans, we can’t wait to see what happens next. That’s not a position we’ve really ever been in since the team moved to Citi Field.
According to reports, Zack Wheeler is going to receive a $100 million deal in free agency. The most likely scenario is going to be a deal along the lines of a five year deal worth approximately $100 million putting Wheeler at an average annual value of $20 million per year.
When looking at any potential deal, it is important to first look at how Wheeler has pitched in each of the past two seasons. The first thing which stands out is after missing two years due to Tommy John surgery and then having issues in his return from that surgery in 2017, he proved he was healthy.
Over the last two years, Wheeler has averaged 30 starts and 188.2 innings. This has the look of an innings eater, and the stats bear that out. While his 60 starts over the past two years rank 32nd in the majors, tying him with Max Scherzer and Mike Minor, his 377.2 innings pitched are 12th most in the majors. That’s roughly 6.1 innings per start.
In addition to being a durable pitcher who is going deep into games, Wheeler is pitching at a high level. In fact, he has established himself as one of the best pitchers in the game.
Wheeler’s 3.37 FIP is the 10th best in the game putting him ahead of pitchers like Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw. Batters make soft contact against him 21.2% of the time, which was sixth best in the majors surpassing pitchers like Charlie Morton and Gerrit Cole. His 28.3% hard hit rate was third best in the majors putting him behind only Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard.
Wheeler struck out batters 22.4% of the time. That was the 24th best in the majors putting him ahead of pitchers like Madison Bumgarner. Overall, he had an 8.9 fWAR which was eighth best in the majors.
Overall, Wheeler was better than Stephen Strasburg in each of these categories with the exception of strikeout rate. He was better than Cole in each of those categories except strikeout rate and fWAR. However, you’ll note those two pitchers are going to command at least $200 million with Wheeler likely to command half that.
The disparity isn’t a matter of age. Wheeler is 29, Strasburg is 31, and Cole is 29. It also isn’t a matter of pedigree. Yes, Strasburg and Cole were first overall picks, but Wheeler was just sixth. It’s also not a matter of being overshadowed by deGrom. After all, Strasburg is in the same rotation as Max Scherzer, and Cole is in the same rotation as Justin Verlander.
Putting that aside, there are also valuation models to consider. Assuming a $8 million/WAR valuation, Wheeler was worth $29.6 million/year using the Baseball Reference WAR valuation and $35.6 million/year using the Fangraphs WAR valuation. Speaking of Fangraphs, their Contract Estimation Tool pegs Wheeler’s value on a five year deal at $161.4 million.
When you consider there is a feeling Wheeler has untapped potential and could be helped by a more analytically advanced organization, Wheeler is a pitcher who is going to be well worth the $100 million contract he is going to receive. In fact, he should prove that $100 million deal to be a real discount.
You have to almost admire the Mets stubbornness/stupidity. In 2019, Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz combined for a -0.3 WAR, and Jarred Kelenic is currently rated by MLB Pipeline as the 13th best prospect in the game. That trade could not get worse, especially when Cano’s contract will prevent the Mets from re-signing Wheeler, and they don’t have Justin Dunn to replace him in the rotation.
Despite how terrible this trade went, it appears Brodie Van Wagenen and the Mets are going to be willing to go down this well again as it is being reported the Mets are at least contemplating obtaining Josh Hader and Ryan Braun.
That’s right. The Mets are looking to obtain a relief pitcher coming off a great year who is nearing his arbitration years and a mid 30s former All-Star who has had a PED suspension. Seeing how the Mets have conducted business since Brodie Van Wagenen was named the General Manager, it should come as no surprise that both players are represented by CAA.
The script is even following the same pattern with Jeff McNeil‘s name being dangled out there as someone who may be included in the trade. When you break it down, it is really quite bizarre just how similar the script for the Cano trade and a potential Hader trade are following one another.
What is scary about this isn’t just that the Mets are contemplating this trade, but it is the fact is shows Van Wagenen isn’t even learning on the job. Really, it is one thing to make a mistake as bad as he made with the Cano trade, but it is a whole other thing to refuse to acknowledge that as a mistake and change your process.
He is apparently still hunting his former clients, and he is still overvaluing relievers and players on the wrong side of 30. This is a complete dereliction of his duties, and you wonder how the Wilpons can sit idly by and watch this happen again.
Between the Mets not being able to afford free agents and the team looking to basically repeat last offseason, you have to look long and hard to find real hope for optimism that the Mets could truly be World Series contenders in 2020.Ro
The emergence of Pete Alonso could have created a Dominic Smith problem for the Mets. After all, Smith and Alonso play the same position. With Alonso hitting 53 homers and winning the Rookie of the Year award, it’s clear the Mets view Alonso as not just part, but really, the core of this team.
While Smith is no longer going to get a chance to be the Mets first baseman of the current and future, he proved himself to be a very useful Major League player. In 89 games, he hit .282/.355/.525 with 10 doubles, 11 homers, and 25 RBI. He proved himself to be a good defensive baseman, and he showed he is quite capable of playing left field for some stretches.
He would also prove his mettle as a bench player. In 37 pinch hitting appearances, he hit .286/.459/.571 with two doubles, two homers, and six RBI. In the 34 games he entered as a substitute, he hit .318/.434/.568 with two doubles, three homers, and 12 RBI.
All told, Smith proved capable of doing something very difficult. He proved he could be a productive Major League bench player. Through the years, we have seen that’s easier said than done. More than that, he proved he is a Major League caliber player, and at 24 years of age, he’s showing he is still a very promising player.
There are plenty of Major League teams who could use a young first baseman. To that end, a Mets team who needs a fifth starter, bullpen help, a center fielder, and depth should really consider moving Smith to fill one or more of those needs. What the Mets should not be looking to do is just dumping Smith to do that.
However, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic the Mets are doing just that. Specifically, Rosenthal says the Mets are looking to use a player like Smith to entice teams to take on a bad contract like Jed Lowrie or Jeurys Familia.
This is because the Mets are going to refuse to exceed the luxury tax threshold despite receiving insurance proceeds from the David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes contracts. They are going to do that despite $12 million of Jacob deGrom‘s $25 million salary. That’s literally tens of millions of dollars the Mets are pocketing, and yet they are not going to be willing to take that next step.
This once again emphasizes the Wilpons mismanagement of team resources, and it highlights just how bad the Robinson Cano trade was for the Mets.
The 37 year old Cano is due $24 million in 2020 and in each of the ensuing three years. When you take out the $3.75 million covered by the Seattle Mariners, the Mets are paying Cano $20.25 million. That is essentially the money the Mets are paying to Familia and Lowrie combined.
Really, when you take the trio combined, that is $41.92 million in money the Mets are begging to get out from under. The Mets got almost literally nothing out of Lowrie. In terms of WAR, they got less than that from Familia. That leaves Cano and his injury prone season as the best of the group. That’s good because he and his 0.3 WAR is making more money than Lowrie and Familia combined.
The Cano trade has so far meant the Mets do not get to see Jarred Kelenic play in Queens. It has meant the Mets will not be able to just replace Zack Wheeler in the rotation with Justin Dunn while using their money to fill other needs. One of those needs is now the fifth starter spot, and right now, Wheeler is not going to be a part of that equation.
As if that all wasn’t bad enough, it could also mean the Mets are just going to give Smith away.
The short term ramifications of the Cano trade were quite bad with Cano having a subpar injury plagued year and Edwin Diaz having one of the worst seasons a Mets closer has ever had. The fact that this won’t be the nadir of the trade speaks to just how disastrous that trade actually was and will continue to be.
In his first year on the job as the Mets General Manager, he made a series of ill-advised moves with some of those moves benefiting his former clients. He showed little restraint on that front.
It started right away with his acquiescing to his former client’s wishes by getting Robinson Cano out of Seattle and back to New York. Van Wagenen would obtain him along with Edwin Diaz in what has so far been a complete disaster of a trade. Not only has Cano been injured and Diaz flat out bad, Jarred Kelenic continued his meteoric rise while Justin Dunn made it to the majors.
The Mets pursued Cano even with the emergence of Jeff McNeil, who just a year ago, the Mets insisted was just a second baseman.
The trade keeps getting worse with Cano’s large salary serving as an impediment to the Mets even considering re-signing Zack Wheeler. It will also take them out on a host of other free agents.
Another contract standing in the way is Jed Lowrie who is set to make $10 million in 2020. That’s the same salary he made in 2019 when he was limited to just eight pinch hitting appearances.
That was because Lowrie was dealing with a still unspecified injury. Part of the reason it’s unspecified is the Mets supposedly still don’t know what’s wrong with him. That includes his former agent who was well aware of Lowrie’s injury history and ailments.
On that front, there’s also Yoenis Cespedes, who according to Tim Healey of Newsday, broke his ankle under suspicious circumstances while rehabbing from his double heel surgery. This could be grounds for a grievance like the one the Yankees are pursuing with Jacoby Ellsbury.
It should come as no surprise Van Wagenen was Cespedes’ agent. With that relationship along with the Van Wagenen’s other decisions as the Mets General Manager, it is fair to question the motivations for not pursuing such a grievance even if the assumption is this has more to do with not losing the insurance coverage on Cespedes’ policy.
That brings us to the news Josh Hader is on the trade block. His former agent? That was Brodie Van Wagenen.
Now, the Mets could use a reliever of Hader’s caliber. Anyone can. That’s the case even with Hader allowing more homers last year than he had in his previous two years combined. Yes, there were some warnings with his 2019 season, but he was still a great reliever.
The issue with him isn’t a fear of that regression. No, the fear is what lengths Van Wagenen will go to get his former clients on the Mets. Those fears are amplified with his handling of those players in 2019 and with the Mets needing help in the bullpen.
At the moment, we don’t know what lengths Van Wagenen will be willing to go to obtain Hader. What we have seen so far is he’s going to be willing to go past what is reasonable to take care of them, which would suggest nothing is off the table when it comes to obtaining Hader.
That is a very scary proposition.
With today being Thanksgiving, it is time to go around the Mets roster and say things we are thankful for:
Pete Alonso – he’s been better than even the highest and most absurd expectations anyone could have of him both in terms of his on the field play as well as the type of teammate and person he is
Carlos Beltran – for coming home
Robinson Cano – showed some late positive exit velocities showing there is some hope for a 2020 rebound
Yoenis Cespedes – for everyone questioning the drive of a man severely injured and needing career saving surgery, he is out there in the cold taking batting practice
Michael Conforto – re-established himself as one of the best young corner outfielders in the game, and with his talent, he’s on the verge of an MVP caliber season
J.D. Davis – quickly became a fan favorite and like few others seemed to really enjoy being a New York Met.
Jacob deGrom – best pitcher in baseball and starting to etch his likeness on the Mets Mt. Rushmore
Edwin Diaz – he survived the season, made no excuses, and he is doing what he needs to do to be the pitcher he was in 2018.
Jeurys Familia – he stopped using “Danza Kudro” meaning we no longer go to very bad places when that music begins blaring
Luis Guillorme – proved if given a chance he is a Major League caliber player giving the Mets some real needed middle infield depth
Chris Flexen – his move to the bullpen gives the Mets an interesting upside option in the bullpen
Robert Gsellman – he is one of those throwback type reliever who is always willing to take the ball no matter what
Sam Haggerty – it’s not often a player comes out of nowhere to provide real value to an organization the way Haggerty did with this speed
Jed Lowrie – to his credit, he did everything he could just to get those pinch hitting appearances late in the season
Seth Lugo – the best reliever in baseball who now gives Beltran a reliever who can break knees with his curve
Steven Matz – took that step forward and put to bed the unfair and wrong mentally weak narrative
Jeff McNeil – the man just does it all. He hits, plays everywhere, and he saves puppies.
Brandon Nimmo – if someone created a stat measuring the quotient of talent and enthusiasm, he’d be the Mike Trout of the stat
Tomas Nido – became the defensive minded back-up catcher many believed him to be, and he played a part getting Mets pitchers head in the right place during different parts of the year.
Stephen Nogosek – he is single-handedly trying to win the Addison Reed trade and the 2017 trade deadline for the Mets
Corey Oswalt – he put behind some injuries and gross mishandling by the organization to show he is a viable depth starting option for the organization
Wilson Ramos – drove in a number of big runs last year, and he has promised to be better behind the plate in 2020.
Amed Rosario – just a tireless worker who seems to be on the cusp of fulfilling the immense potential we all saw he had in the minors
Paul Sewald – he keeps proving himself to be better than the narrative, and he finally got his first Major League win to put an exclamation point on what is one of the better stories of the Mets farm system
Dominic Smith – that walk-off homer was a beautiful exclamation point on a season where he proved everyone who ever doubted him to be very wrong
Drew Smith – his coming back from Tommy John at some point in 2020 gives the Mets some hope for an improved bullpen.
Marcus Stroman – few have fully embraced being a Met like he has and fewer have been ready to thrive on the New York stage
Noah Syndergaard – not just a great pitcher, but also a guy who wants to be a New York Met.
Justin Wilson – was terrific in 2019, and with the LOOGY rules, he becomes an even more valuable bullpen piece in 2020
In terms of the talent still here, there is a lot to be thankful for. Hopefully, we will see the return of Zack Wheeler giving us all the more to be thankful for in 2020 and beyond.
One thing is abundantly clear – the Mets love them some Jeremy Hefner!
The Mets drafted him not once, but twice. After he didn’t sign with the team after the 2004 or 2005 draft, the Padres drafted and signed Hefner in 2007.
When he was designated for assignment by the Padres in 2011, he was claimed by the Pirates. When the Pirates did the same a month later, there was the Mets pouncing and finally getting their man.
A year later, Hefner would finally make his Mets debut. It would be quite notable as Hefner would become the first 26th man in Major League history when he entered in relief in the first game of the April 23rd doubleheader against the San Francisco Giants.
Hefner showed real promise in 2013 with a 1.80 ERA in June and a 3.33 first half ERA. Unfortunately, like Matt Harvey, his promising season ended when he succumbed to a torn UCL requiring Tommy John surgery.
Harvey would return for 2015 glory, but Hefner wouldn’t. While he rehabbed with Harvey, something went wrong, and he would need another Tommy John surgery. He’d be a warning sign for Harvey causing the team to force him to ease up on his rehab. For all we know it also caused the Mets to be smarter with Zack Wheeler, who missed two years with his own Tommy John surgery and ensuing complications.
Like Wheeler, Hefner was a Met in name only as he watched the team won a pennant. Sadly, he’d be released at the end of the year, and his comeback attempt with the Cardinals didn’t lead to another shot in the majors.
Hefner landed on his feet as a member of the Twins organization as a scout, and this past year, he was the assistant pitching coach. He’s become very well regarded in the game in very short order. Once again, the Mets pursued him.
This time, it was much easier. Following a theme with their hiring Carlos Beltran, the team brought back Jeremy Hefner. Once again, he’s home with the Mets where he belongs. Once again, the Mets finally got Hefner in a Mets uniform.
As we saw last offseason, there is usually discussion about the need to extend the team’s best players, and to the Mets credit, they did what they needed to do in order to agree to a contract extension with Jacob deGrom. With him winning the Cy Young Award last year, the team is so far very happy with their decision.
In the ensuing years, the team has real decisions to make on contract extensions for their other starters. Marcus Stroman is a free agent after the 2020 season. After the 2021 season, both Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz will be free agents. Unless the Mets move to extend one or all of them, they stand in danger of losing them all to free agency like they are currently facing with Zack Wheeler.
While the immediate need is Stroman, and the focus is mostly centered around Syndergaard, now is a very good time for the Mets to entertain extending Matz.
In 2019, Matz arguably had the worst season of his career. Overall, he was 11-10 with a 4.21 ERA, 1.341 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9, and an 8.6 K/9. Looking at all the numbers, the ERA, WHIP, BB/9, and K/9 were the second worst of his career. The same can be said for the H/9. When considering most of his career worsts came in a 2017 season where he had a massive bone spur, this was his worst season.
Still, there were some real positives which emerged during the 2019 season which should have the Mets looking to extend him. As a point of demarcation, Matz moved to the middle of the pitching rubber before his July 16 start against the Minnesota Twins.
Prior to that start, Matz struggled mightily, and he would be demoted to the bullpen heading into the All-Star Break. In his 16 starts and two relief appearances, he was 5-6 with a 4.89 ERA, 1.481 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, and an 8.7 K/9. As he was coming out of the bullpen, Matz was limited in his pitch count, but he fared well against the Twins allowing just two earned over four innings. After this start, his season would turn the corner.
From July 21 until the end of the season, Matz would make 13 starts going 6-4 with a 3.46 ERA, 1.181 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9, and an 8.7 K/9. Over this stretch, he had a 3.65 FIP. It’s a small sample size, but it is notable his FIP over this stretch was better than what Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin had.
Looking at the numbers, Matz pitched like the Mets fourth best starter, which honestly, is all the Mets expect him to be. On another team, he could be a three or even a number two, especially for teams who have begun to de-emphasize starting pitching.
In addition to the improved stats Matz had since he moved his position on the rubber, there were some other promising signs. For a pitcher who has dealt with injury problems, he has made 30 starts for consecutive seasons, and his 160.1 innings were a career high. The exit velocity and barrel percentage against him was the lowest it has been since 2016.
Really, when you break it all down, Matz is a pitcher in his prime, and he appears to be getting stronger the further away from 2017 he gets. He is making the adjustments he needs to make. He is also going to start getting expensive.
In 2019, his first year of arbitration, he made $2.625 million. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Matz is slated to essentially double his salary to $5.3 million. If he is the pitcher he was from the middle of July to the end of the season, that number is going to skyrocket in 2021.
At the moment, the Mets have a very low baseline with Matz, and it’s very possible this will be the cheapest he will ever be. By seeking to lock him up now, the Mets will have some cost certainty on someone who has been getting stronger and promises to improve. They’re securing a spot in their rotation at a time when they could potentially lose 4/5 of their rotation over a three year span.
Moreover, by extending Matz now, the Mets are getting some cost certainty. Locking up Matz on the lower end should allow them to turn their attention to the rest of the rotation as well as a player like Michael Conforto, who will hit free agency the same time as Syndergaard and Matz.
Overall, Matz is a homegrown Met who grew up a Mets fan. While he has not been the pitcher many expected when his grandfather was jumping up and down in the stands, he has proved himself to be a useful Major League starter, and he is someone who could well be part of the equation over the next five years. With him likely being at his cheapest now, this is the right time to look to extend him.
This offseason, the Mets need to address the rotation, bullpen, catcher, third, center, and depth across the board. This becomes all the more complicated when you consider just signing Zack Wheeler will put the Mets over the luxury tax.
Still, there is some small hope. After all, David Wright‘s contract is insured and expiring. Yoenis Cespedes‘ contract is expiring as well. A good portion of Jacob deGrom‘s salary is deferred. Putting this all together, maybe the money is there, and maybe the Mets will take it on the chin one year and resetting the next.
It’s not going to happen.
Aside from the usual pessimism, Forbes reported “Sterling Equities has yet to put in any money for its share” of the “highly leveraged” new Islanders arena. Ultimately, it is unknown how much of the $800 million financing is the Wilpon owned Sterling Equities responsibility, but that’s just axiomatic as the money isn’t there.
If the money isn’t there for the Islanders arena, it does beg the question whether it’ll be there for the Mets. Perhaps, that is the reason why the Mets focused on a cheaper option in Carlos Beltran instead of a Joe Girardi. On that note, the Mets supposedly didn’t discuss the money available for a manager.
At this point, you really have to wonder what money is available. So far, there isn’t $1 available for the Islanders arena. If there isn’t any money available for a project the Wilpons are partially responsible for $800 million, you wonder how much more they’re going to contribute towards their mid market Mets payroll.