Yoenis Cespedes
At this point, I don’t know if any fan can honestly tell you what the Mets will do this offseason. I wouldn’t be surprised if they make no major additions. If they don’t, the Mets should still be favorites to repeat as NL East Champions. The main reason is an already weak NL East keeps getting worse.
The Braves major offseason addition was to re-sign A.J. Pierzynski. Other than that, they traded away their young SS Andrelton Simmons. They’re threatening to do the same with Freddie Freeman.
The Phillies have made no major moves, and do not appear to be doing so. Sure, they may have cleaned up the front office, but that will not have any impact upon their 2016 season.
The Marlins brought in a very average manager in Don Mattingly, and then immediately threatened to get rid of anyone if any value. Whether it’s Jose Fernandez and his hoodies or Marcel Ozuna and his accumulation of service time, the they’re looking to get rid of anyone not named Giancarlo Stanton or Ichiro Suzuki.
Then there are the Nationals, who just lost Jordan Zimmermann in free agency. I’m not sure how they replace him with their payroll issues. Essentially, they’re relying on Anthony Rendon being healthy, and the switch from Matt Williams to Dusty Baker vastly improving a team losing its CF and SS. It’s possible they will be better, but that’s a lot to ask considering Bryce Harper was the MVP, and Max Scherzer had a Cy Young caliber season.
The Mets have holes, but they return a young rotation poised to be deeper and better. They’ll presumably have a full year of Travis d’Arnaud, Michael Conforto, and David Wright. At the end of the day, it just might be enough offense to offset the losses of Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy. Ultimately, it may not matter with the NL East regressing.
The Mets need to just play to their potential to repeat in the NL East for the first time in their history.
The Mets have a lot of needs this offseason. The only thing everyone seems to know is the Mets aren’t going to spend money or re-sign their third place hitter, Daniel Murphy, or their clean-up hitter, Yoenis Cespedes.
Here’s the thing. The only free agent who has signed a deal was Rich Hill. The only major trade was the Andrelton Simmons deal, and we know Simmoms wasn’t going to be traded to the Mets. With all the rumors flying around, one thing is for certain. Nothing has been decided yet.
It’s an important offseason for the Mets. They were just in the World Series. If they want to return and/or win there’s work to do. The Mets also have to make good on some promises. They always said if fans came to the ballpark, they would have money to spend on payroll. Well, the Mets had a 19.5% increase in attendance. SNY ratings are up 60%. The Mets are increasing ticket prices. There should be more money to spend. In fact, there is. There’s about $45 – $60 million extra revenue from 2015.
No, that’s not what we’re hearing. We’re hearing free agents are costing too much. We’re reminded small market teams outspend them. The reason might be because the Wilpons and their entities have significant debt payments due. There’s supposedly more than $29 million due. If the Mets don’t do anything, that will be the story and deservedly so.
Personally, I don’t think there is much out in the free agent market. I advocated letting Cespedes walk. However, there are realistic avenues to spend money. They can bring back Murphy. They can create a dominant bullpen. They could also start trying to extend their starting pitchers. There’s room to spend money.
I’m frustrated with the Mets right now because they’ve done nothing, but then again, there’s been very little movement in the offseason. It’s also frustrating not being able to vent about what most Mets fans feel is inevitable. We all assume the Mets won’t spend, but we can’t exactly call them out on something that hasn’t happened yet because the possibility remains they might.
All in all, it all just creates a very irritating and frustrating offseason. By the way, the offseason has only been a little over two weeks old. There’s the definite possibility it’s going to get worse.
Unsurprisingly, the Mets have interest in both Darren O’Day and Joakim Soria. If you’re looking for an elite setup guy, you’re going to be interested in both players.
Soria is now three years removed from Tommy John surgery. In the four seasons prior to the one he was injured, Soria was an elite closer recording 132 saves with a 2.03 ERA and a 0.988 WHIP. He got injured, and he became a different player. Still a good closer/reliever, but not an elite closer.
After coming back from surgery, he went to Texas where he recorded 17 saves with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP in two years. He then signed with the Tigers, who seem desperate for relief help every year (sound familiar?). In two years, he recorded 24 saves with a 3.29 ERA and s 1.115 WHIP. When he was traded to the Pirates, he was terrific in the bullpen because he’s a good pitcher and everyone is terrific in the Pirates bullpen. In 29 games he had a 2.03 ERA with a 1.163 WHIP.
With the Mets seeking an eighth inning reliever, Soria would be an upgrade over Addison Reed, who has a career 4.01 ERA and a 1.261 career WHIP. Soria is a huge upgrade. Soria is expected to receive a 2 year $14 million contract or $7 million per season. Reed is slated to receive $5.7 million in arbitration. Soria would be worth the $1.3 million increase.
O’Day appears like he will command a 3 year $21 million contract or $7 million per year. While I think the $7 million per year on both O’Day and Soria are fair estimates, the increased interest may bump those numbers up to around $8 million per season.
Right now, the Mets projected payroll is around $92 million with about $18 million left in the budget. Would it be wise to blow almost all of it on relievers? I think so. The current free agent market lacks the elite second base, shortstop, or center fielders who would improve the Mets offense. The Mets don’t seem inclined to bring back Daniel Murphy.
The best solution might be to create an absolute shut down pitching staff. Going from the Mets elite starters to O’Day-Soria-Jeurys Familia will hold up any lead the Mets can muster. Also, keep in mind, the Mets will have full years from David Wright, Michael Conforto, and Travis d’Arnaud, which should offset the losses of Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes.
The Mets best approach to this offseason might be to create a shutdown bullpen to match their starting pitching. Bring on both O’Day and Soria.
With the Mets having limited money to spend, they seemingly have two options: (1) improve a strength; or (2) address a weakness. With the Mets have holes at both middle infield spots and centerfield, depending on your point of view, the Mets may be looking to improve a strength:
Sounds like Mets like O’Day too, which is obvious. But easy to see his market heating up and being out of reach.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) November 6, 2015
Without making a move, the Mets already have a good bullpen. Why improve it with all the other holes? Why address the bullpen when the Mets are losing Daniel Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes? The reason is you can’t bring back both. Therefore, no matter what happens you’re going to be playing in tight games next year. The best way to handle those games is with great pitching.
The Mets have great starting pitching, but only a good bullpen. The addition of Darren O’Day would make the bullpen great. In six of the eight years he’s pitched, he has had an ERA of 2.28 and below. For his career, righties hit .193/.261/.279. Lefties hit him better to the tune of .235/.294/.409. As you would expect, lefties hit the submarining O’Day better than righties, but they don’t exactly hit him well. Furthermore, O’Day has been improving against them while he’s been in Baltimore:
- 2014: .189/.264/.368
- 2015: .210/.293/.333
O’Day has become a terrific set-up man. Combining him with Jeurys Familia would make every game a seven inning game with the Mets. With their starting pitcher, that’s a dangerous proposition for the Mets opponents.
It may also be what the Mets need with what promises to be a diminished Mets offense.
Despite a good postseason and an offseason to heal, the Mets seem intent on having a different centerfielder in 2016. One of the players the Mets are interested in is Gerardo Parra.
This isn’t a new interest mind you. The Mets tried to trade for him last year before putting Michael Cuddyer on the DL and calling up Michael Conforto. Instead, the Mets watched Conforto become more than anyone dreamed he could be and saw Yoenis Cespedes play so well he garnered MVP consideration. With free agency, the Mets are circling back to Parra.
Parra is a career .277/.326/.404 hitter. He’s coming off his best offensive year. He hit .328/.369/.517 in 100 games in Miller Park, a hitter’s park. If you’re signing him based on these numbers, you believe these numbers translate to Citi Field. You believe he’s entering the prime of his career at age 28. You believe his .237/.268/.357 slash line in 55 games with the Orioles is too small a sample size to rely upon.
These are all reasonable assumptions. I can believe Parra is going to be a better offensive player in 2016 no matter where he signs. Coupled with Parra’s reputation as a good defensive player, he may be a bargain at the 3 year $24 million contract he’s expected to garner could be a bargain.
The problem is Parra’s defense is by reputation only. His UZR does not support his reputation. Last year, he had a -4.2 UZR as a leftfielder, which equates to him being a poor left fielder. It was a precipitous drop from his 3.2 UZR in 2014. I bring this up to be instructive. If he’s not as great a leftfielder as the numbers suggest, why would he be a good centerfielder?
The answer is he isn’t. He was abominable in CF last year with a -10.0 UZR in 289 innings. This was even worse than his -4.3 in 2014 in 65 innings. Translation, the more Parra plays in center, the more his flaws are exposed. Why would you want to see this over a 162 game season for the next three years?
Part of the reason the Mets lost the 2015 World Series was their defense. With that being the case, why would you seek to diminish the one area the Mets were Gold Glove caliber? Yes, Lagares had a down year. Yes, he’s had trouble against righties. However, even in a bad year, he’s still much better than Parra in center.
I understand looking to upgrade in center, but Parra is not the answer.
There’s no nice way to put it. Juan Lagares did not have a good 2015. He took a step back offensively and defensively. He basically forced the Mets to go out and get Yoenis Cespedes and play him out of position.
The Mets made it work in July and August. However, when you play with fire you eventually get burned, and the Mets got burned in the World Series. It showed the need to have an actual centerfielder in centerfield. On the flip side, Lagares started to play much better in the postseason, even if he wasn’t all the way back defensively.
The Mets now have two options. They can go with Lagares or they can go out and sign someone. The argument for Lagares is:
- He was injured and may be better with an offseason to heal;
- Even in a down year, he was an above average defensive centerfielder; and
- He will have more time to work with Kevin Long to get better at the plate.
The argument against Lagares was he regressed in every way possible. He had real platoon splits, and if you can’t hit righties, you can’t play everyday in the majors. Also, this is a championship contending team. You need to be ready to compete day one, especially when you’ve lost your two biggest trade chips on rental players.
The cheapest option, and possibly the best, is to carry Kirk Nieuwenhuis as your 4th outfielder. After an abysmal 2015, he will be cheap. He’s also an every other year player:
- 2012 – .252/.315/.376
- 2013 – .189/.278/.337
- 2014 – .259/.346/.482
- 2015 – .195/.270/.375
Sometimes things don’t make sense. That goes doubly for every other year players, but it seems to be a thing. If it continues, Nieuwenhuis is primed to be better in 2016, which would be good news.
For all his faults, Nieuwenhuis is a useful player. He can play all three OF positions. He’s got some pop in his bat and some speed. Looking over his UZR, he grades out as average at all three positions (making him a much better CF than Cespedes). That’s important because very few big league teams carry a legitimate CF on the bench.
It’s important because if Lagares can’t hit righties again, the Mets need to figure something out quickly. We saw the platoon work in 2015, and it should in 2016:
- Lagares vs. Lefties – .279/.325/.427
- Nieuwenhuis vs. Righties – .245/.314/.423
The numbers aren’t tremendous, but keep in mind this comes with good to great defense. It also comes with a presumably improving Lagares and the good year Nieuwenhuis. Also, this is going to presumably come from the 7th or 8th spot in the lineup.
If the Mets don’t like these numbers, they have a baseline for external options. Right now, here are the free agent centerfielders:
- Rajai Davis career .269/.316/.387 hitter with a 3.4 UZR last year
- Dexter Fowler career .267/.363/.418 hitter with a -1.7 UZR last year
- Austin Jackson career .272/.333/.399 with a 7.5 UZR last year
- Justin Maxwell career .220/.303/.399 with a -1.6 UZR last year
- Colby Rasmus career .245/.313/.443 hitter with a 2.1 UZR last year
- Shane Robinson career .237/.302/.313 hitter with a 0.9 UZR last year
- Denard Span career .287/.352/.395 with a -4.9 UZR last year
- Drew Stubbs career .244/.313/.395 with a -0.2 UZR last year
Looking over the list, the only players that could be an improvement are Fowler, Jackson, or Span. I’ll address them in reverse order.
Span is the best offensive player of the group and could leadoff. He is projected to receive a three year $36 million offer. It’s 50/50 if he’ll receive a qualifying offer. However, in a large outfield, it is not wise to go with a centerfielder with poor range. He’s a definite no if he gets a qualifying offer. You do not want the Nationals getting your first round pick.
Jackson is the best defensive player. He is projected to receive a three year $30 million contract, but he probably won’t receive a qualifying offer. However, isn’t he essentially an older, more expensive Lagares? I’m not sure this is the way to go.
That leaves Fowler. The benefit of Fowler is he’s a switch hitting leadoff hitter. He’s in the middle of his prime. He just played well for a playoff team, even if he did not have a good postseason. He will receive a qualifying offer, and he’s projected to get a 4 year $56 million contract.
There’s no doubt in my mind Fowler would improve this team. Realistically, the Mets should be able to get him and re-sign Daniel Murphy, who is projected to receive 4 year $48 million contract. To put it in perspective, Fowler and Murphy are worth a combined $26 million a year or just $4 million more than what Cespedes is slated to receive. If the Mets have money, this is the way to go.
However, my Fowler/Murphy choice presumes they can sign them and give arbitration raises to everyone. If Fowler or Murphy prevents you from signing one pitcher, you go with Lagares. I’d be comfortable going that way.
Ultimately, centerfield is one of the positions the Mets can improve easily in 2016. If the Mets can’t bring in Fowler, they’ll need it to come from Lagares.
A large part of what happened in the second half of the season was the Mets obtaining Yoenis Cespedes. I’m not in the camp that the Mets wouldn’t have won the division without him. However, I do believe it prevented a dog fight for the division.
While it was a wild ride, it came at a cost. A huge cost. I remember being vilified for suggesting the Mets would not sign him. Now, it seems like after an awful World Series, fans are on board with the sentiment. There seems to be a multitude of reasons why people do or do not want Cespedes to come back to the Mets. For what it’s worth, it appears he will not return.
I know its academic, but it’s the right decision. There’s no room for him on the roster. Michael Conforto will be the everyday leftfielder. Curtis Granderson has two more years on his contract to be the rightfielder. The Mets are set at the corner outfield positions. As for centerfield, Cespedes isn’t a centerfielder. I know he played there for the Mets, but it wasn’t a great decision. It was a decision to increase offense.
Looking over his career, Cespedes has poor range in centerfield. His UZR in centerfield this year was a -3.2, which equates to being a below average centerfielder. It just wasn’t those lazy World Series plays, it was the entire second half. By the way, this was the worst he’s been in three years in centerfield. His prior UZRs were -1.3 and -1.7. It’s the reason three teams didn’t see him as a centerfielder. People didn’t notice it as much because he was impossibly hot at the plate.
Look at it this way, everyone jumped all over Juan Lagares for having a down year defensively. His UZR was 3.5, which equates to him being an above average centerfielder. So to get this straight, Lagares was bad, and Cespedes was good? No, Cespedes hit, and Lagares didn’t.
I do think Cespedes will continue to hit for power. In his four year career, his 162 game average is .271/.319/.486 with 30 homers and 106 RBI. Whether or not he’s a poor on base percentage player, he will continue to mash. That still doesn’t make him a CF. It makes him a terrific left fielder. The Mets have one of those.
So we should all thank Cespedes for what he’s done for this team because he won’t be back. It was a wild ride, and I wish him the best at his next stop.
Honestly, I hate wasting my breath. I mostly write this blog late, late at night when everyone is in bed and I’m still up pondering what the heck did Terry Collins just do. However, this World Series has bothered me so much I’m not going to sleep anytime soon. One of the main reasons is Yoenis Cespedes.
Be honest. After seeing his play over the last four games, do you have more faith in him than Michael Conforto? Do you have more faith in him than Juan Lagares? You shouldn’t. Conforto and Lagares are playing better offensively and defensively. It’s mostly because they hustle. Cespedes hasn’t. In fact, Cespedes has been lazy out there at best, a quitter at worst.
As a fan, I have found his play in the World Series to be offensive. As you can tell from his .176/.167/.176 triple slash line, I don’t mean offensive to be his at bats. No, I mean his lack of hustle and his poor judgment on the field. He deserves to ride the bench. He won’t because Terry Collins doesn’t have the nerve to do it. I’m not even sure he’s upset with Cespedes’ play. That bothers me more.
I know he has a shoulder problem. The only thing that should effect is his at bats, which the stats suggests it might. It shouldn’t affect his legs, head, and or desire to win. Does his bum shoulder explain this play:
I know it’s painful, but look at that play again. He claimed he didn’t call for it, but he certainly looked like he was taking command of the play by his route. He said he lost the ball looking for Michael Conforto. Look it happens, but what happens next shouldn’t happen. The ball hits him on the leg, and he just stops. Stops! The only guy with an arm strong enough to maybe keep Escobar from scoring just gives up right then and there.
Another “favorite” play of mine was the Salvador Perez double last night. At the time, it was 2-0 in the fifth. Steven Matz was cruising. Rewatch what happened next:
That ball SHOULD’VE been caught. Admittedly, I thought differently last night, but I just re-watched the play. Cespedes’ top gear is a sight to behold. That was nowhere near it. As a result, he didn’t get there, and he kicked the ball again. To make matters worse, HE DIDN’T run after it. Where’s the hustle? The sense of urgency?
That brings me to his at bats. He’s struck out six times in the World Series. It’s going to happen. I’m not even upset that he keeps chasing and getting himself out with the pitches in the dirt. I’m upset because when he strikes out, he doesn’t bother to run to first. If it happens on July 20th in the third inning, I get it. It’s a long season you got to conserve energy to get through a 162 game season.
This is the World Series! You’ve got to give it your all. Cespedes clearly isn’t. The Royals are. The Royals are everything Cespedes isn’t. Am I blaming Cespedes? No. There are other problems. However, his lacksadasical play led to two outs becoming runs.
If he’s not going to give it his all, why is he out there? If Conforto and Lagares are playing better on both sides of the ball, why is he out there? The Mets are on the brink of losing the World Series. It’s a time for urgency. A time to run out the players who want it most. A time to run out the players who give you the best chance to win. That’s not Cespedes. At least not when he’s doing this on the base paths:
He needs to sit.
The Mets were humming along through five innings. Steven Matz was good through five innings. At that point, he allowed five hits, one earned, no walks and five strikeouts. Watching the game, he was out of gas. It was a tremendous effort.
In the bottom of the fifth, Michael Conforto would hit the second of his two homeruns. This one coming off a lefty. The Mets had a 3-1 lead. The Royals only run to that point was the result of Yoenis Cespedes not hustling for a ball hit by Salvador Perez. I’m not saying it should’ve been caught. I’m saying it could’ve been caught. To make matters worse, he kicks it making a possible out a double.
Things were humming along, and then Terry Collins let the gassed Matz hit for himself. No one in the ballpark, not even Matz’s grandfather knew what he was thinking.
In a surprise to no one, a double and a single to start the sixth and the Royals narrowed the gap to 3-2. Collins had to burn through Jon Niese and Bartolo Colon. Actually, he didn’t need to use Colon there, but Colon got the big strikeout to end the inning with the tying run at third. Seeing how Colon pitched, did he come on for the seventh? No, of course not. It’s the postseason, so you manage like its paint by numbers.
He used Addison Reed for the seventh. He got the Royals out 1-2-3 in quick fashion. Then Collins brings in Tyler Clippard. A man he had so much faith in in this pivotal inning that he started warming up Jeurys Familia immediately. By the way, you can’t have faith in Clippard. He’s been terrible lately. All postseason Collins has skipped him or quickly go to Familia.
Look if you have faith in Clippard, you don’t warm up Familia before he throws a pitch. You may ask why not Familia for six outs if you have him warming up so soon. The reason was Collins felt it important to have him close out a game with a six run lead last night. It compromised his ability to go six outs. It cost the Mets.
Clippard recorded the first out, but then he lost control. He then walked the next two batters. Familia came on and got a ground ball that Daniel Murphy booted. Tie game. A rejuvenated Royals team then starts hitting Familia. Two hits later and it’s a 5-3 game.
Now because Ned Yost didn’t waste his closer for useless innings last night, he could use Wade Davis for two innings. The Mets still had a chance. Murphy singled and then Cespedes singled. They’re in business. Tying runs on with Lucas Duda coming up. This is where Cespedes would put the capper on a lazy, baffling game.
Duda got one in his kitchen. He swung and hit a low bloop to Mike Moustakas. Everyone saw it was going to hold up for him, even the notoriously bad Baserunners Murphy. Not Cespedes. He’s almost on second when the ball is caught. Easy double play. Game over.
Another quick note on Cespedes that sums up his World Series perfectly: he constantly strikes out on balls in the dirt. Once he strikes out, he goes to the dugout. He doesn’t bother to look to run to first. He doesn’t adapt to how he’s being pitched. He won’t hustle after a strikeout.
Series isn’t over yet. The Mets still have their three best pitchers lined up. The three best starters in the series. Hopefully, Cespedes will actually hustle tomorrow. Hopefully, Collins will figure out how to become a good in game manager. Hopefully, the Mets can pull this off.
Tonight is Halloween, and we’re saying goodbye to the incredible month of Murphtober. If this game goes into the late evening hours, it will be the second time the World Series will go into November (it will anyway).
After Daniel Murphy dominated October, it’s time for a Met to take up the mantle for November. Here are some suggestions:
Curtis Granderson – Grandvember
David Wright – Davember
Daniel Murphy – Murphvember
Yoenis Cespedes – Yovember
Travis d’Arnaud – Travember
Wilmer Flores – Wilvember or Flovember
Juan Lagares & Juan Uribe – Juanvember
Matt Harvey – Harvember
As usual, I’m open to any suggestions you may have.
Lets Go Mets