Travis d’Arnaud

Travis d’Arnaud Should Be the Mets Catcher in 2017

This offseason, the Mets have a number of important decisions to make.  How far should they go to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes?  Should they re-sign Neil Walker to play second base, or do you stick with what you have in Wilmer Flores, T.J. Rivera, Gavin Cecchini, and/or Jose Reyes?  How do you properly prepare for how to deal with the David Wright situation?  Once you pick up Jay Bruce‘s option, what do you do with him?  Do you move Bruce or Michael Conforto to first base, or do you stick with Lucas Duda, who has now had lower back injuries in consecutive seasons?  Do you bring back Bartolo Colon to be the fifth starter again, or do you fully trust one of Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo to take over that role?  Overall, there are many questions on how the Mets should build the 2017 roster.

However, one avenue they don’t have to address is the catcher position.

Let’s start with the one player people will have near unanimous agreement.  Rene Rivera should return as the Mets backup catcher.  Rivera certainly earned his reputation as not only a good defensive catcher, but also one that serves as a mentor for young starting pitching.  Much of the unexpected success both Gsellman and Lugo had were partially the result of them working with Rivera.  More importantly, Rivera developed a rapport with Noah Syndergaard.  He became the ace’s personal catcher, and we saw Rivera catch seven brilliant innings from Syndergaard in the Wild Card Game.  With Rivera being arbitration eligible, he should be a lock to return in his role.

By the way, that role was the backup catcher to Travis d’Arnaud.

There is no sugar-coating it.  The 2016 season was a disaster for d’Arnaud at the plate.  In 75 games, d’Arnaud hit .247/.307/.323 with only four homers and 15 RBI.  He didn’t have one extra base hit or an RBI off of a left-handed pitcher the entire season.  It was as bad as you can possibly imagine.  In fact, his numbers were almost as bad as they were in his 2014 rookie season.  That year, the Mets had to send him down to the minors to let him fix his issues at the plate.  The Mets couldn’t afford to do that this season.

Making everything all the more frustrating was d’Arnaud regressed in his ability to throw out base runners.  In 2015, he was actually league average in that department.  That is all the more impressive when you consider how the Mets starting pitchers generally do not hold on runners well.  This season d’Arnaud went back to only throwing out 22% of base runners.

Part of his offensive and throwing issues are related to mechanics.  Part of them may be related to the rotator cuff strain he had in his  throwing shoulder.  Another factor was with d’Arnaud struggling, he began to receive irregular playing time.  It could be any combination of the three.  In any event, d’Arnaud had a poor year offensively and a poor year throwing.

However, d’Arnaud was still good behind the plate.  He’s always been good at fielding a throw and getting the tag down without violating baseball’s blocking the plate rules.  He still calls a good game.  He was yet again one of the best pitch framers in baseball.  In fact, his teammate. Addison Reed, said, “There’s been a couple of times just this season that I’ve went back and looked at video just because I wanted to see how low the ball was, and how good of a strike (d’Arnaud) made it look.  He’s the best I’ve ever thrown to at doing that. Just the way he frames the ball, it’s unbelievable. He makes balls that are four or five inches below the zone look like they’re almost right down the middle by just the way he flicks his wrist. I couldn’t even tell you how he does it.”  (ESPN.com).  Judging from Reed’s words, you can tell he also has the confidence of his pitching staff.

With d’Arnaud still excelling behind the plate, and there being valid reasons for his poor performance, it might just be in the Mets best interests to bet on d’Arnaud rebounding in 2017.  Remember, d’Arnaud was the same player who hit .268/.340/.485 with 12 homers and 41 RBI in 67 games.  Arguably, d’Arnaud was one of the top offensive catchers in the game.  With his skills behind the plate, he has the rare ability to be able to hit and catch well.  With him turning 28 years old and still being a player with multiple years of control, the Mets would be best suited to count on him getting healthy in the offseason (not always a given with d’Arnaud) and letting him reclaim his 2015 form.

Another reason to bet on d’Arnaud is the weak free agent class.  Looking at the list of possible free agents, there does not exist one catcher who is definitively better than d’Arnaud.

The first catcher most people will point to is Wilson Ramos.  Even if you buy into his career year being a new norm for him, Ramos isn’t even sure he will be able to play next season after tearing his ACL.  As Ramos said himself, “Unfortunately this injury… may affect whether I am able to stay with a NL team.”  (cbssports.com).  That rules out Ramos entirely.

The next catcher that is consistently mentioned is Matt Wieters.  In 2016, despite hitting in a hitter’s park like Camden Yards, Wieters hit .243/.302/.409 with 17 homers and 66 RBI.  These numbers are partially why he had an 87 OPS+ meaning he was a subpar offensive player.  Even if you are willing to overlook some of these stats because he is a switch hitter, he hit .231/.304/.346 with three homers and 15 RBI off lefties this year.

Moreoever, Wieters is nowhere near the pitch framer d’Arnaud is.  Wieters is not only unable to steal his staff a strike here or there, he is also unable to ensure that strikes thrown will be called strikes.  Another consideration is Wieters is a fairly injury prone player.  While he was healthy in 2016, he was not for the previous couple of years.  If one of the reasons you are looking to move on from d’Arnaud is health, Wieters is not your guy.

Another factor the Mets should not pursue Wieters, or whoever else you believe should be a target, is money.  Ultimately, players like Wieters are going to cost more than d’Arnaud.  That’s important when you consider Jacob deGrom is heading to his first arbitration year, and the Mets still have to find the money to re-sign Cespedes.  Any money spent this offseason is presumably less money available for the Mets to give Cespedes.  Therefore, if you sign a player, you better make sure that both is both a player of need and/or a definite upgrade over what the Mets already have.

There is no one out there who is definitively better than d’Arnaud.  In fact, they are probably not as good as him.  Worse yet, they are going to be more expensive.  With that in mind, the Mets best move would be to let d’Arnaud get healthy so he can contribute to the Mets like he did in 2015.

If he doesn’t, the Mets still have Kevin Plawecki . . . .

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online

Mets Final Grades – Catchers

Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive.  For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month.  Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment.  There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection.  It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets.  Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad).    For the first set of grades, I will start with the catching position:

Travis d’Arnaud C-

After a breakout 2015 season, this was supposed to be the year that d’Arnaud broke out and became an All Star caliber catcher.  Instead, we were faced with another injury plagued year, discussion of moving on from him and acquiring Jonathan Lucroy, and finally him effectively losing the starting job to Rivera.

Let’s start with the good.  Believe it or not, and many Mets fans don’t believe it, d’Arnaud had another great year behind the plate.  He was once again one of the best pitch framers in all of baseball, he called a good game, was the Mets best catcher in terms of limiting wild pitches and passed balls, did another phenomenal job of navigating baseballs plate blocking rules, and had the full confidence of his pitching staff.  And yes, while his throwing took a major step back this year due to a combination of poor mechanics and a shoulder injury, he was better than advertised trying to throw out base runners.  With that said, despite many of the stolen bases having come off the pitching staff this year, yes, d’Arnaud did regress, but it was not to the point where he became a major liability.

Now the bad.  There is no way to put it nicely.  d’Arnaud was simply terrible at the plate this year.  In 75 games, he hit just .247/.307/.323 with only four homers and 15 RBI. He didn’t have one extra base hit or an RBI off of a left-handed pitcher the entire season. His numbers were almost as bad as they were in his 2014 rookie season when Mets had to send him down to the minors to let him fix his issues at the plate. The Mets couldn’t afford to do that this season.

In some ways, d’Arnaud is unique across the game of baseball.  He is the rare catcher that is expected to be a significant offensive contributor for his team.  He didn’t just fail in that regard; he was actually a liability at the plate. This was the main reason d’Arnaud eventually lost his starting job.  If he hit, he would’ve played more, but he didn’t.  In the end, it was a disappointing and yet another injury plagued season for him.  However, his 2015 season gives us hope, and that is why we can expect him to rebound and be a significant contributor next year.

Kevin Plawecki F

If you want to be fair to Plawecki, you would say he should never have started the season as the Mets backup catcher.  The former first round pick had the potential to be more than just a backup, and with that he should have been in AAA honing his craft instead of waiting idly by until d’Arnaud got injured again.

Still, that is not an excuse for Plawecki to once again squander the opportunity given to him.  Y0u think d’Arnaud’s offensive stats were bad?  Plawecki’s were worse.  In the time he was the backup and took over for d’Arnaud, Plawecki hit .194/.301/.258 with five doubles, one home run, and 10 RBI in 41 games.  He wasn’t much better in his September call-up.  For the season Plawecki hit .197/.298/.265 with six doubles, one homer, and 11 RBI.

Sure, Plawecki did hit well in AAA like everyone seems to do.  In 55 games with Las Vegas, he hit .300/.348/.484 with 11 doubles, eight homers, and 40 RBI.  While not outstanding for the Pacific Coast League, it did show a marked improvement over what he has been in the majors.  However, they were still empty numbers.  As we saw in Plawecki’s limited time in September, he had made no adjustments while in AAA.  He was still a pull happy ground ball hitter who does not make a lot of hard contact.  With the Mets likely returning d’Arnaud and Rivera next year, he is likely going to get one last shot to improve and make himself a major league hitter.

With all that said, it should be pointed out that Plawecki has established he can be an effective backup catcher at the major league level.  While he was touted for his offensive skills, Plawecki was really established himself as a good defensive catcher with excellent pitch framing skills.  Given the fact that catchers tend to develop later than other players, it would be unwise to cut bait with him even with the rise of Tomas Nido.

Rene Rivera C+

This season the Mets got the best out of what Rivera could offer.  He was a good defensive catcher, he helped Noah Syndergaard through his issues holding on base runners, he mentored Robert Gsellman and  Seth Lugo, and we discovered he could actually hit left-handed pitching pretty well.  With his work with young pitching, and with d’Arnaud’s struggles, Rivera effectively took over the starting job late in the season.

Overall, this was the second best season of Rivera’s career.  Still, he was not very good.  He only accumulated a 0.4 WAR and a 69 OPS+.  Most of his offensive stats were from a nine game July hot streak that saw him hit .323/.400/.581 with two doubles, two homers, and seven RBI.  Other than that nine game stretch, Rivera hit .201/.256/.292 with two doubles, four homers, and 19 RBI in 56 games.  Those are Plawecki type numbers the Mets wanted to move away from when they made the switch from Plawecki to Rivera as the backup catcher.

Another note, Rivera was awful behind the plate in the Wild Card Game.  Yes, he did go 1-3 off Madison BumgarnerHowever, it was his work behind the plate that was troubling.  Many criticized the work of home plate umpire Mike Winters for missing a number of close pitches made by Mets pitchers.  However, it should be noted that Buster Posey, a superior pitch framer to everyone, was getting those calls for Bumgarner.  While he is usually a good pitch framer, Rivera was terrible at it during the Wild Card Game stabbing at many pitches.  With that he extended some at-bats making Syndergaard go deeper into counts and not allowing him to pitch into the eighth.  Also, his passed ball and poor pitch framing cost Addison Reed some pitches and quite possibly gave the Giants some confidence heading into the ninth against Jeurys Familia (note: Rivera had nothing to do with Familia making a bad pitch to Conor Gillaspie).

That game marred what was a pretty good year for Rivera.  Given his rapport with Syndergaard, he should start the year as his personal catcher.  It will also be nice to have him around should Gsellman or Lugo need to make some spot starts next season.

Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links. 

A Look Back at the Mets 2006 Draft

Ten years ago, Omar Minaya had his second draft as the manager of the New York Mets.  With the team having signed Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran in the offseason, they would not have a first round draft pick.  In total, the Mets would draft 49 players, and they would be able to sign 35 of them.  Of the 49 players drafted, six of the players would play in the major leagues.  Here is  review of those players that were drafted and played in the major leagues:

Kevin Mulvey, LHP (2nd Round, 62nd Overall)

Mulvey was a fairly well-regarded fastball-changeup pitcher out of Villanova, who shot through the Mets minor league system.  In his first full professional season, he started in AA, and he finished the year with one start in New Orleans, which was then the Mets AAA affiliate.

In the offseason, Mulvey was a significant piece in the trade that brought Johan Santana to the Mets.  Notably, he was the only player drafted by Minaya to be included in the deal.

Mulvey would not last long with the Twins.  He spent a year and half with the team, and he made a very brief major league appearance with them in 2009.  He would become the player to be named later in a trade in which the Twins acquired Jon Rauch to help them not only win the AL Central, but also to help them in the postseason.

Mulvey would not pitch well for the Diamondbacks.  In 2009 and 2010, he would only make four starts and four relief appearances.  He would go 0-3 with a 6.92 ERA and a 1.615 WHIP.  In 2011, the Diamondbacks would designate him for assignment to remove him from the 40 man roster.  A year later, he would be outright released.

Mulvey caught back on with the Mets in 2012, and he was assigned to AA Binghamton.  After 13 relief appearances that saw him go 0-1 with a 5.59 ERA and a 1.707 WHIP, Mulvey retired from the game of baseball, and he returned to Villanova to be an assistant coach.  On July 14, 2016, he was named the head coach of the Villanova Wildcats.

In total, Mulvey only started four games and made six relief appearances over three major league seasons.  He finished with an 0-3 record, a 7.90 ERA, and a 1.756 WHIP.

Joe Smith, RHP (3rd Round, 94th Overall)

After losing Chad Bradford to free agency, the Mets decided the side winding Smith was ready to take over Bradford’s role in the bullpen.

Smith would pitch two seasons with the Mets making 136 appearances.  In those games, he would go 9-5 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.402 WHIP.  While he could never match what Bradford did for the 2006 Mets, Smith was still a reliable bullpen arm so long as he was called to pitch to right-handed batters.

With the Mets bullpen falling to pieces during the 2008 season, the Mets sought a dominant reliever who could pitch in the eighth inning and who could be a reliable closing option in the event the Mets closer once again succumbed to injury.  With that in mind, Smith was included as a part of a three-team deal that netted the Mets J.J. Putz.  Ironically, it was Smith who would have the best career out of all the relievers in the deal.

During Smith’s five year tenure with the Indians, he got better and better each season as he got better and better pitching to left-handed batters.  He went from being a reliever who got just righties out to an eighth inning set-up guy.  Because of that, he got a big three year $15.75 million contract from the Angels when he hit free agency for the first time.

While Smith regressed a bit during his time with the Angels, he was still a very effective reliever.  Because he is still a very useful reliever, the Chicago Cubs obtained him after the non-waiver trade deadline.  Despite pitching well with a 2.51 ERA in 16 appearances for the Cubs, he was left off the postseason roster.  Smith is due to be a free agent after the season.

So far in Smith’s 10 year career, he has averaged 64 appearances and 57 innings per season.  He is 41-28 with 29 saves, a 2.93 ERA, and a 1.199 WHIP.

John Holdzkom, RHP (4th Round, 124th Overall)

Holdzkom was a high school pitcher with a big arm whose fastball could reach triple digits.  Initially, he posted big strike out numbers in the minors before needing season ending Tommy John surgery in 2008.  The surgery caused him to miss the entire 2009 season, and when he returned, he was never the same pitcher.

After six games in the rookie leagues in 2010, the Mets released him.  Holdzkom would take a year off from baseball before signing a minor league deal with the Cincinnati Reds.  He would struggle for two years in the Reds farm system before being released in June 2012.

From there, Holdzkom went to the Independent Leagues in the hopes of rekindling his hopes of becoming a major league pitcher.  With his fastball returning, he was dominant with high strikeout numbers once again, and he caught the attention of the Pittsburgh Pirates, who offered him a minor league deal.  In 2014, Holdzkom would actually appear in nine games for the Pirates pitching very well.  In those games, he was 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA and a 0.667 WHIP.

Holdzkom would lose his fastball again, and he would never again be able to crack the Pirates major league roster.  On the eve of Opening Day, he was released by the Pirates, and he was eventually signed to a minor league contract by the Chicago White Sox.  While never appearing on an injury report anywhere, Holdzkom only made one appearance in 2016 for the White Sox rookie league affiliate in July.  In two-third of an inning, he allowed four runs on three hits and two walks.

As for this moment, it is unknown what lies in the future of this 28 year old pitcher who is still looking to reclaim his fastball.

Daniel Murphy 3B (13th Round, 394th Overall)

Murphy is the best known player from the Mets 2006 draft.  He got his start with the Mets in left field for a 2008 Mets team desperate for offense.  Murphy hit well enough that he was named the Opening Day left fielder in 2009.  That year it was apparent he was not an outfielder, and he began his transition to second base.

While there were some rough spots along the way, everything finally clicked for Murphy last postseason with him hitting home runs in six consecutive postseason games.  These home runs were all the more notable when you consider Murphy hit them off Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks.  His key steal and home run in Game 5 helped propel the Mets to the NLCS, and in the NLCS he was the obvious choice for MVP.

He signed with the Nationals, and he went out and proved his postseason run was no fluke.  Murphy hit .347/.390/.595 with 47 doubles, 25 homers, and 104 RBI.  All these numbers were career bests.  He led the National League in doubles, slugging, and OPS.

In his Mets career, Murphy hit .288/.331/.424 while averaging 33 doubles, nine homers, and 57 RBI per season.  Among Mets second baseman, Murphy is the all-time leader in games, at-bats, runs, hits, doubles, RBI, and batting average.  He is also ranked third overall for the most doubles by a player in a Mets uniform, and he is ranked eighth in batting average.

Tobi Stoner, RHP (16th Round, 484th Overall)

The German born Stoner was used as a starting pitching in the Mets minor league system.  However, in his brief time with the major league club, he was used exclusively out of the bullpen.  Between 2009 and 2010, Stoner made five appearances going 0-1 with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.412 WHIP.

After his big league call-ups, Stoner actually regressed.  That could be in part due to bone spurs in his elbow he had to have removed prior to the 2011 season.  Even with the removed bone spurs, Stoner could never get back to being the pitcher he was or who the Mets thought he could be, and he was released on the eve of the 2012 season.  Stoner would pitch the 2012 season in the Independent Leagues.  In 12 starts, he would have an 8.11 ERA, and his professional career was over after that season.

Josh Stinson, RHP (37th Round, 1,114th Overall)

Stinson was a high school pitcher with a mid 90’s fastball.  As he did not truly develop his secondary pitches, he became a bullpen arm.  With a his live arm, he got called-up in 2011, at the age of 23, and pitched in 14 games with the Mets recording a 6.92 ERA and a 1.615 WHIP.

The Mets relased him before the 2012 season, and he was claimed by the Brewers.  He pitched mostly in the minors for the Brewers.  Stinson did get a brief call-up where he actually pitched well.  Despite his success in a small sample size, he was released before the 2013 season, and he was eventually picked up by the Orioles.  He made 19 appearances with the Orioles, pitching to a 4.50 ERA, before he was granted free agency. Stinson signed a minor league deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he would not make it to the majors in the 2014 season.  The Pirates released him at the end of the year.

In the 2015 season, Stinson pitched for the Kia Tigers of the Korean Leauges.  In 30 starts and two relief appearances, Stinson was 11-10 with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.521 WHIP.  No one signed him to a professional contract to pitch in 2016.  According to Stinson’s Twitter account, the 28 year old still considers himself a free agent pitcher.

Vic Black, RHP (41st Round, 1,234th Overall)

The Mets drafted Black out of high school, but he would not sign a deal with the Mets.  Rather, he attended Dallas Baptist University, and he re-entered the draft in 2009 where the Pittsburgh Pirates would draft him in the first round (49th overall).  The Mets would acquire Black in 2013 as part of the trade that sent John Buck and Marlon Byrd to the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for Black and Dilson Herrera.

In 2014, Black seemed to have a breakout season for the Mets.  He began to harness his high 90s fastball, and as a result, he was becoming a reliable bullpen arm.  Unfortunately, Black would land on the disabled list with a herniated disc in his neck.  When he tried to pitch through it, he eventually developed a shoulder strain.  He was first shut down, and then designated for assignment in the offseason.

While Black elected free agency, he hoped that he could re-sign with the Mets.  Neither the Mets nor any other major league team were interested in his services.  Black has not pitched in professional baseball in two years.  At the moment, it is unknown if he will be able to ever pitch again.

Johnny Monell, C (49th Round, 1,463rd Overall)

Like Black, Monell did not sign a contract with the Mets instead choosing to re-enter the draft at a later date.  He would be drafted by the San Francisco Giants in the 30th round in the following draft.

From there, Monell has bounced around from organization to organization.  Finally, in 2014, he returned to the same Mets organization that had drafted him eight years prior.  Due to injuries to Travis d’Arnaud and the ineffectiveness of both Kevin Plawecki and Anthony Recker, Monell would be called-up to the Mets in 2015, and he would play in 27 games hitting .167/.231/.208 with two doubles and four RBI.  Monell would be sent back down to AAA where he would remain for the 2015 season.

The Mets would remove him from the 40 man roster after the 2015 season, and Monell would agree to return to the Mets.  Monell spent the entire 2016 season playing for the Las Vegas 51s.  He hit .276/.336/.470 with 22 doubles, one triple, 19 homers, and 75 RBI.  With Plawecki being sent down in favor of Rene Rivera, Monell became the backup catcher.  In order to get him into the lineup more, Monell saw some additional time at first base.  Monell finished the year tied for the team lead in homers and third in RBI.

At this point, it is not known if the Mets intend to bring back the 30 year old catcher to play for the 51s again in the 2017 season.

 

The Cubs World Series Win Was Painful to Watch

If you are a diehard Mets fan, or if you are a Mets fan well versed in the history of the team, you know how the Cubs were the Mets first real rival.  You know the stories about how Ron Santo clicked his heels taunting the Mets, and you warmly remember the black cat crossing Santo’s path.  From there, the Mets overtook the Cubs to win the National League East en route to winning the 1969 World Series.

In 1984, the Cubs obtained Rick Sutcliffe, and the team went on an incredible run to win the National League East over the upstart New York Mets who went from 68 to 90 wins with their first full season with Keith Hernandez and Darryl Strawberry.  By the way, it was also the rookie year for phenom Dwight Gooden.

Then there was the NLCS last year that saw Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Jacob deGrom dominate a terrific Cubs lineup.  We all knew the Cubs were a great team, but the Mets were their kryptonite.  As a Mets fan, a large part of you had to wonder if the Cubs even make the World Series if the Mets pitching was healthy.

But the angst goes well beyond that.  There was Ben Zobrist as the World Series MVP.  Mets fans watched him be a major contributor to a Kansas City Royals team who beat the Mets in the World Series last year.  In the offseason, he was seemingly all but assured to join the Mets to replace Daniel Murphy.  Instead, literally at the 11th hour, he spurned the Mets, and he signed with the Cubs.  Part of you had to wonder how different the 2016 season would have been had Zobrist signed with the Mets.

The Cubs also overcame a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series.  The Mets were in the same position last year, and like the Cubs, the Mets had their starting pitching aligned.  It all seemed to be going according to plan as Harvey carried a shutout into the ninth inning.  As we remember, Terry Collins went against his better instinct, and he sent Harvey out there instead of Jeurys Familia.  Harvey allowed a walk and a double to narrow the gap to 2-1.  Familia then did his job getting the ground ball to get out of the game only for David Wright to cut off a ball he shouldn’t have played allowing Eric Hosmer an extra jump rounding third.  That was important as it gave Hosmer the ability to break for home, and he scored with Lucas Duda making the worst throw of his life.

Watching the 10th inning reminded me of that 12th inning game of that ill fated Game 5.  Watching a cold and tired Joe Shaw helplessly trying to get out of the jam reminded me of an overworked and tired Addison Reed getting hit left and right by the Royals in what was a devastating seven run inning.

In many respects, as a Mets fan it was tough to watch.  It was even tougher to watch when you consider Theo Epstein got his Cubs team to win the World Series before the Mets could win one despite Sandy Alderson having been on the job a year longer than Epstein.  It is all the more frustrating when you consider the Cubs beat out the Mets for Zobrist, and the Cubs spent a lot of money in the past offseason.

The one solace to take out of all of this is the fact that the Mets are built to win not just next year, but in the ensuing years.  And yes, the Mets are built to contend with or without Yoenis Cespedes.  Not only do the Mets have the pitching, but they also have players like Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario on the way.  There is still hope for Michael Conforto and Travis d’Arnaud to rebound in 2017 to recapture their 2015 form.  Duda can put together a healthy contract year season.  There is still a lot of hope for the Mets to be World Series contenders the next couple of seasons.  There are also the seeds for a real rivalry between the Mets and the Cubs over the next few seasons.

However, as of right now, all that is left behind is a World Series victory for the Cubs, and the Mets wondering both “what if” and “how do we get back there.”  That is what stings most of all.

World Series Shows Pitch Framing Matters

Everywhere you turned last night, the major discussion was Home Plate Larry Vanover’s strike zone.  As it appeared by the fan watching at home on television, it seemed like Corey Kluber was getting a more favorable strike zone than the one Jon Lester was getting.  The critique wasn’t limited to just fans.  Lester had his own problems with the strike zone himself.

It was actually the same refrain Mets fans had in the Wild Card Game.  It appeared Madison Bumgarner was getting a larger strike zone than Noah Syndergaard was.  This was one of the reasons Bumgarner was able to go deeper into the game and help the Giants advance to the NLDS.  In the World Series, it was one of the reasons why Kluber dominated the Cubs and why Lester left the game down 3-0.

In both cases, it appears the viewers and the teams were correct.  One team was not getting the calls the other team was getting.  It is not because the umpiring crew likes one pitcher better than another.  It is not because umpires put bets down on both games.  It is because of the art of pitch framing.

In the Wild Card Game, Rene Rivera struggled in that department while Buster Posey, the best at it in the game, was on top of that aspect of his game.  It made a big difference in the game.  It was also a big difference last night.

During the 2016 season, both Roberto Perez and David Ross were exceptional pitch framers.  As it turns out, Perez was not only better during the regular season, he was also better last night.  Perez’s pitch framing makes such a huge difference in getting those borderline pitches for his staff.  It allows them to get an advantage in the count and to get that called third strike.  Indians backup catcher Chris Gimenez said it best when he said:

He is phenomenal.  Blocking, receiving — he’s elite, in my opinion. His game-calling has gone through the roof just from the beginning of this year. And he is literally an elite pitch framer. Even [Andrew Miller] today was like, “It’s so nice having him back there. He makes those 50-50 balls look so good, in the umpire’s eye, that’s a strike.”

(Ken Rosenthal, Fox Sports)

If that quote sounds familiar, it should.  Here is what Addison Reed had to say about Travis d’Arnaud:

There’s been a couple of times just this season that I’ve went back and looked at video just because I wanted to see how low the ball was, and how good of a strike (d’Arnaud) made it look. He’s the best I’ve ever thrown to at doing that. Just the way he frames the ball, it’s unbelievable. He makes balls that are four or five inches below the zone look like they’re almost right down the middle by just the way he flicks his wrist. I couldn’t even tell you how he does it.

(Mark Simon, ESPN).

While many choose to discount pitch framing, and the importance it has, teams and pitching staffs don’t.  There’s good reason for it.  As we saw in Game 1 of the World Series, it was the difference between Kluber throwing six shutout innings with nine strikeouts and no walks and Lester walking three and barking at the umpire.

With the Mets, it was the difference between Bumgarner going nine, and Syndergaard going seven.  It was also the difference between Reed being a pitcher with a career 4.20 ERA and a 1.275 WHIP to a dominant eighth inning reliever who has a 1.84 ERA and a 0.957 WHIP as a Met.  In total, it helps the entire Mets pitching staff.

Fact is pitch framing matters, and it has a huge impact on the game.  It was a big factor why the Indians won Game 1 of the World Series, and it was a factor in the Mets run to the World Series in 2015.  It will be a big factor in 2017 when a healthy d’Arnaud is able to catch a healthy Mets staff.

Not So Great Scott: The Mets Missed Bob Geren

In the Wild Card Game, the Mets ran James Loney out to first base. In his very first at-bat, he snuffed out what could have been a rally by hitting into a double play on the first pitch he saw from Madison Bumgarner. In the seventh, he failed to field a groundball not hit too far from him that allowed Angel Pagan to reach on an infield single. That play effectively erased any chance that Noah Syndergaard could go back out for the eighth inning. Speaking of the eighth inning, with the Mets desperate for offense, Terry Collins pinch hit Eric Campbell for Loney.

Fact is, Loney shouldn’t have started that game. He didn’t have good numbers against left-handed pitching. He has been even worse against Bumgarner. However, he had to start with Lucas Duda not being ready to play, and with Wilmer Flores having suffered a season ending wrist injury.

All year long, Flores had demolished left-handed pitching. In 49 games against left-handed pitching, Flores hit .340/.383/.710 with 11 homers and 28 RBI. The Mets needed his bat in the lineup, and they needed him to play first base. However, he wasn’t available because of a crucial decision, or indecision, that was made on September 10th.

In that September 10th game, the Mets and Braves were tied 3-3 in the eighth inning, and Flores was standing on second base after a two out double. As we would soon see, with Flores’ speed, it was far from a guarantee that he would score from second on a base hit. Kelly Johnson would get a pinch-hit single. Flores “raced” around third, and he slid headfirst into home plate. In the ensuing collison, A.J. Pierzynski got him out – not just out at home plate, but also out for the season. Fact is, there is no reason why Flores wasn’t lifted there for a pinch runner. How did this happen?

Well, acccording to Collins, “We certainly had enough guys who could have ran for him, which we should have.” (Kevin Kernan, New York Post). Collins would go on to say, ““I was trying to get the pitching set up and get a pinch hitter in and got distracted, my faultI told [bench coach] Dickie [Scott], like I said, we were trying to get the pitching set up and get a pinch hitter, get somebody to hit for the pitcher who was coming up. I certainly should have had somebody ready to pinch run.”

Ultimately, Collins, being the manager and never one to make excuses, took responsibility for the failure to pinch run for Flores. However, it wasn’t just Collins’ mistake. It was also Bench Coach Dick Scott‘s mistake.

The bench coach’s job is more than just acting as a sounding board for the manager when seeking to make a move. The bench coach is also responsible for having a grasp of the matchups that are upcoming. They need to be aware of moves the team needs to be making in the next couple of innings. Overall, the bench coach needs to help prevent his manager, and ultimately his team, from making a gaffe that could cost them a game. During that confusion, Scott needed to remind Collins to get a pinch runner. He needed to be the clear head. If he did think of it, he needed to have a strong enough voice to get through to Collins.

What was simply astounding is the Mets almost repeated the mistake a week later. In the bottom of the seventh inning, the Mets were trailing the Minnesota Twins 1-0, and Ervin Santana was dealing. Loney was intentionally walked putting runners and first and second with no outs. Despite Loney representing the go-ahead run and being perhaps the slowest man in all of baseball, he was not pinch run for during Alejandro De Aza‘s at-bat. After De Aza walked, Loney was on second, again representing the go-ahead run. The Mets then sent Michael Conforto to bat for Jerry Blevins, and still Loney remained on second. After Conforto took the first pitch did the Mets send Ty Kelly out to second base to pinch run for Loney.

These weren’t isolated incidents. There are several other examples to pull from including the famous Collins’ rant about not knowing whether Jay Bruce or Brandon Nimmo is faster. If Collins didn’t know that, his bench coach sure should.

While Collins has his faults as a manager, there was never this sense of indecisiveness that we saw from the team this season. While Collins usually made head scratching moves, he usually had a justification for them. He would say that someone was swinging a hot bat, or the player has been a good player for them all season, or simply that he liked the matchup. He would never say there was distraction and confusion in the dugout. There was no reason for him to say it because Bob Geren was a good bench coach that helped not just his manager, but also his team. That calming presence and attention to detail was missed this year.

Geren’s work with catchers was also missed this year.

During Geren’s time in baseball, he has be renown for his work with catchers. If you recall, when Travis d’Arnaud had first come up with the Mets, there were many questions about his defense. In his first full season, he actually led the majors in passed balls, which is all the more alarming when you consider he spent a good amount of time in AAA. It wasn’t just the passed balls. During the season, d’Arnaud had trouble framing pitches, and his mechanics in all aspects behind the plate were out of whack – especially his throwing.

Working with Geren, d’Arnaud has built himself into one of the better catchers in baseball. He no longer has the issues with passed balls. He has shown the ability to call a good game. He is an exceptional pitch framer. There is probably no catcher better in the league in fielding a throw and getting the tag down without violating the plate blocking rules. In 2015, d’Aranud was actaully league average in throwing out base runners.

While d’Arnaud was good behind the plate this year, his mechanics throwing the ball took a step back. It could have been the shoulder injury, but it also could have been him missing the calming presence of Geren. Eventually, it became so much of an issue that Rene Rivera had to become Syndergaard’s personal catcher due to Syndergaard’s difficulties holding on base runners and d’Arnaud’s weak arm. There is no telling how all of this affected him mentally and whether this carried over to his offense.

So overall, the Mets truly missed Geren in the 2016 season, d’Arnaud especially. It was a rough first year for Scott as the bench coach. Despite it being a rough year, he will be returning to the staff next season. Although it has not been announced, he will presumably be returning to the same role. Hopefully, the growing pains are out of the way, and Scott will be a more effective bench coach in 2017.

Some Wild Card Game Questions

As Conor Gillaspie joined the ranks of Dave Henderson, Mike Scioscia, and Yadier Molina, all I was felt with was the feeling of “What if . . . ?”

It was one of several questions, I have thinking about last night’s Wild Card Game. Not all of these are second-guesses, nor are they are particularly the reason why the Mets lost the game. Clearly, the Mets lost the game because Madison Bumgarner was Madison Bumgarner. Furthermore, not all of these questions have answers. Still, there are some questions that just need to be asked:

  1. If Kelly Johnson didn’t feel comfortable playing first base, did the Mets consider playing him in right field? KJ was 7-20 off Bumgarner and Jay Bruce was 3-23 heading into the game.
  2. Why were the Mets batters so aggressive early in the game? The idea was to outlast Bumgarner and get into the Giants bullpen. Instead, Bumgarner needed just 21 pitches to get through the first three innings putting him well on pace to finish the game.
  3. If the Mets carried Kevin Plawecki to give them three catchers to permit Travis d’Arnaud to hit for Rene Rivera when the Mets needed offense, why did Rivera bat in the bottom of the seventh when you already knew Noah Syndergaard was coming out of the game?
  4. Also, with a tight game, once Rivera came out, why wasn’t d’Aranud double switched into the game with the pitcher’s spot due up in the eighth? Doing that would’ve permitted the Mets to go two innings with Reed. Note, as it turned out with Reed throwing 20 pitches in the eighth, this became a bit of a moot point.
  5. If you were going to pinch hit Eric Campbell for James Loney late in the game for offense, why not just start Campbell at first? Loney is awful against left-handed pitching, and he’s even worse than that against Bumgarner.
  6. How healthy was Lucas Duda? If he was good to go even for a pinch hitting appearance, he needed to be on the roster.
  7. How was it that Campbell and Ty Kelly were the Mets first two options to pinch hit off the bench? It’s astounding to think about how you couldn’t really argue that much with the decision.
  8. After the T.J. Rivera double, should the Mets have gone all-in on the inning considering that was most likely going to be their best chance to score off Bumgarner? If Bruce is unable to bunt, couldn’t you have brought in Juan Lagares to lay one down? Do you at least consider pinch hitting for Rivera in that spot, especially with Loney on deck? If Lagares did come into the game, you at least had his defense in center field for what was a tightly contested ball game.
  9. Should Terry Collins have ordered Jeurys Familia to walk Gillaspie? If you do, you create an out at any base, and you definitively get Bumgarner out of the game. For what it’s worth, I completely agreed with the decision to pitch to Gillaspie, but I still think the question needs to be raised.
  10. Was this the last time we will see Yoenis Cespedes, Duda, and David Wright wearing a Mets uniform? Duda and Wright were on the field wearing their Mets uniform for player introductions.

Ultimately, Collins did a terrific job last night. While you can argue with some decisions, he put his team in position to win that game, and his players didn’t execute. Even if one or two things change, the Mets still probably lose this game, which is the most depressing thought of all. With all of these questions that linger unanswered there is one remaining that we will find out the answer to around the same time next year:

Can the Mets get back to this point for a third straight season?

That is the biggest question of all.

Reasons to Believe the Mets Will Win the Wild Card Game

Noah Syndergaard

Yoenis Cespedes

Asdrubal Cabrera

Curtis Granderson

 

T.J. Rivera

Jay Bruce

Alejandro De Aza

Rene Rivera

Jose Reyes

James Loney

Lucas Duda

Kelly Johnson

Travis d’Arnaud

Michael Conforto

Juan Lagares

Jerry Blevins

Fernando Salas

Addison Reed

Jeurys Familia

Oh, and in case, you still think winning the Wild Card Game is impossible, there’s Bartolo Colon to show you nothing is impossible:

Josh Edgin & Robert Gsellman on the Wild Card Game Roster; Lucas Duda, Seth Lugo, Josh Smoker Left Off

The New York Mets have announced their Wild Card Game Roster for tonight’s winner-take-all game tonight at Citi Field

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

There were a few surprises on this roster. The one that immediately stands out is the Mets not carrying Lucas Duda on the roster. In a short period of time, Duda has gone from in the conversation to starting at first base tonight to not even being on the roster. His will be a big bat the Mets will miss for a late inning pinch hitting opportunity.

The next surprise was the Mets carrying Gsellman over Seth Lugo. While Gsellman has been the hotter pitcher over the past couple of starts, Gsellman does not have the experience Lugo has coming out of the bullpen.

The biggest surprise was the Mets carrying Edgin over Josh Smoker. This season, Smoker has struck out 14.7 batters per nine, and he has gotten the Mets out of a few tough jams. Edgin, on the other hand, has struggled this season due in large part to him not fully regaining his velocity after Tommy John surgery. However, despite the surprise, there is some justification for the decision.

First, both Smoker and Edgin are one inning pitchers. Each time Terry Collins has tried to push Smoker past one inning of work, he has allowed a second home run. With them both being one inning pitchers, the Mets most likely sought to use the pitcher who matches up better against the Giants. Given the Giants have many left-handed batters, Edgin seems to be the better choice. This season, lefties are hitting .235/.300/.235 off of Edgin as opposed to .360/.448/.600 off of Smoker.

Overall, the hope is that the Mets don’t have to use Edgin or worry about leaving Smoker off the roster. First and foremost, Blevins is going to be the LOOGY in the big spot, and Robleshas reverse splits. Additionally, the Mets 7-8-9- combination of Salas-Reed-Familia pitch just as well against lefties as they do to righties. In the end, so long as Syndergaard and the back end of the bullpen do their job, as we all expect they will do, the Edgin/Smoker decision will not amount to much.

Mets Don’t Go Back to the Future

With the addition of John Olerud and the emergence of Rick Reed, the 1997 Mets made a tremendous leap forward going 88-74 to be a factor in the Wild Card race.  However, they would eventually lose out to a Florida Marlins team that was literally built to win the World Series that one season.

After that season, the Marlins disbanded because, as we were first learning out, that’s what the Marlins do when they win.  The Mets were one of the main beneficiaries of the the offseason sell-off with them obtaining Al Leiter and Dennis Cook.  Then the real boon came when the Marlins had swung a deal with the Dodgers to obtain Mike Piazza to unload a bunch of big contracts.  With the Mets struggling, due in large part to Todd Hundley‘s elbow injury, the Mets moved quickly and added Piazza.  With a week left in the season, the Mets won to go to 88-68.  All the Mets needed to do in the final week of the season was to win one more game to at least force a playoff with the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs for the Wild Card.  They didn’t.  Once again, finishing the year 88-74 was not good enough for the Wild Card.

Entering the final game of the 2016 season, with the Mets having already clinched the Wild Card, the Mets needed just one more win to finish the year at 88-74.

There was a version of me 20 years younger that wanted to see the Mets get that win to erase some of the bad feelings that an 88-74 record created.  It was going to be a difficult task because the Mets objective wasn’t to win this game.  The sole objective was to just get through it with everybody healthy so as not to compromise the team for the winner-take-all Wild Card Game this Wednesday at Citi Field.

For starters, it was Gabriel Ynoa who took the mound instead of Noah Syndergaard. Terry Collins would also give an at-bat a piece to Curtis Granderson, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Yoenis CespedesJay Bruce would get two.  T.J. Rivera, Jose Reyes, Rene Rivera, and Travis d’Arnaud would not play.  This was a full-on keep people fresh and don’t get anyone injured operation.

Ynoa would acquit himself well even if he couldn’t go five.  He would only throw 52 pitches in 4.2 innings allowing five hits, one run, one earned, and one walk with two strikeouts.  Collins would lift him for Jerry Blevins, who is probably the one Mets reliever who could’ve used some work, to get out of the fifth.  At that point, the Phillies were only up 1-0 on a third inning Maikel Franco RBI single.

The Mets would eventually go ahead in this game making the 88-74 season a reality.  In the sixth, Matt Reynolds doubled, and he would score on an Alejandro De Aza RBI singles.  In the seventh, Kelly Johnson hit a leadoff single, and he would score on a Kevin Plawecki two out RBI double.

The lead would not last long as the Phillies went to work against Erik Goeddel in the bottom of the seventh.  After an Andres Blanco single, an Aaron Altherr walk, and a Lucas Duda throwing error, the Phillies loaded the bases with no outs.  Cesar Hernandez brought home the first two runs on an RBI single, and then Jimmy Paredes knocked in the third run of the inning with a sacrifice fly.  That Paerdes sacrifice fly was an extra base hit if anyone other than Juan Lagares was manning center field.  Lagares once again reminded everyone that he is the best fielding center fielder in baseball, and that if he can at least manage one at-bat per game, he needs to be on the postseason roster.

The Phillies then added a run in the eighth off Jim Henderson to make the game 5-2.  That would be the final score of a game where both teams reached their primary objective.  The Phillies were able to provide a fitting send-off for Ryan Howard removing him from the game in the eighth so he could leave to a standing ovation.  The Mets just got through the game without suffering any injuries, and also got much needed reps for Duda and Lagares.

The Mets weren’t able to get that final win to erase the angst of the past when 88 wins just wasn’t good enough for the postseason.  Ironically, 87 was good enough this year.  With those 87 wins, the Mets put the capper on a mostly frustrating season.  However, in the end, they were able to go to make consecutive postseason appearances for only the second time in their history.  When viewed through that prism, this was a successful and enjoyable season.