T.J. Rivera

Josh Edgin & Robert Gsellman on the Wild Card Game Roster; Lucas Duda, Seth Lugo, Josh Smoker Left Off

The New York Mets have announced their Wild Card Game Roster for tonight’s winner-take-all game tonight at Citi Field

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

There were a few surprises on this roster. The one that immediately stands out is the Mets not carrying Lucas Duda on the roster. In a short period of time, Duda has gone from in the conversation to starting at first base tonight to not even being on the roster. His will be a big bat the Mets will miss for a late inning pinch hitting opportunity.

The next surprise was the Mets carrying Gsellman over Seth Lugo. While Gsellman has been the hotter pitcher over the past couple of starts, Gsellman does not have the experience Lugo has coming out of the bullpen.

The biggest surprise was the Mets carrying Edgin over Josh Smoker. This season, Smoker has struck out 14.7 batters per nine, and he has gotten the Mets out of a few tough jams. Edgin, on the other hand, has struggled this season due in large part to him not fully regaining his velocity after Tommy John surgery. However, despite the surprise, there is some justification for the decision.

First, both Smoker and Edgin are one inning pitchers. Each time Terry Collins has tried to push Smoker past one inning of work, he has allowed a second home run. With them both being one inning pitchers, the Mets most likely sought to use the pitcher who matches up better against the Giants. Given the Giants have many left-handed batters, Edgin seems to be the better choice. This season, lefties are hitting .235/.300/.235 off of Edgin as opposed to .360/.448/.600 off of Smoker.

Overall, the hope is that the Mets don’t have to use Edgin or worry about leaving Smoker off the roster. First and foremost, Blevins is going to be the LOOGY in the big spot, and Robleshas reverse splits. Additionally, the Mets 7-8-9- combination of Salas-Reed-Familia pitch just as well against lefties as they do to righties. In the end, so long as Syndergaard and the back end of the bullpen do their job, as we all expect they will do, the Edgin/Smoker decision will not amount to much.

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The Road to the Pennant Begins at Citi Field

For the first time in their history, the Mets can defend their pennant in the postseason. Better yet, the Mets get to defend their National League crown on their own turf.

The Mets are sending their ace Noah Syndergaard to the mound. Bear in mind, Syndergaard is not the ace by default. From the minute Syndergaard started throwing 95 MPH sliders to accompany his 100 MPH fastball, he was fast on his way to becoming the staff ace regardless of the injuries to Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom. In the 2016 season, Syndergaard led the major leauges in FIP while also allowing the fewest home runs per nine innings. He also finished .001 behind Max Scherzer for the best K/BB ratio in the National League. All told, even with the every other year narrative and Madison Bumgarner‘s postseason history, the Mets actually have the starting pitching advantage.

That advantage gets amplified when you consider the Giants just do not hit Syndergaard. As a team, the Giants are batting .170/.241/.226 with just one home run against Syndergaard. The Giants projected starting lineup is just 8-44 against Syndergaard with a home run and nine strikeouts. So long as Syndergard goes out there and pitches against the Giants batters like he has done in his short career, he is going to give the Mets every chance to beat Bumgarner and the Giants.

The Mets have a chance to beat Bumgarner too. The first three batters in the Mets lineup, Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Yoenis Cespedes, have each hit Bumgarner well. Towards the bottom of the lineup, both Riveras, T.J. Rivera and Rene Rivera, have had success in the one game they have faced Bumgarner. This is a big reason why the Mets were able to score four runs off Bumgarner in just five innings. With Syndergaard on the mound, and Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia to follow, the Mets are not going to need as many runs this go round against Bumgarner.

Speaking of the bullpen, there has been no better tandem to close out a game than Reed and Familia. On the opposite side of the ledger, the Giants blew the most saves in all of baseball. They came just short of the all-time single season blown saves record. The Giants still don’t know who their closer will be this postseason. If it comes down to a battle of the bullpens, the Mets definitively have the better pen.

Tonight should be baseball at its best. You’re going to see two of the best pitchers in baseball, both of who have had success in the postseason, squaring off in a winner-take-all game. Given the Mets having home field, and the numbers at play, you have to like the Mets chances tonight.

Lets Go Mets!

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The Mets Have a Chance Against Madison Bumgarner

As we head to the Wild Card Game, we already know that we are going to see an epic pitching matchup between Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard.  Presumably, this game is going to be won and lost on which pitcher blinks first and allows a run.  It is going to be a daunting task for both offenses.

In Bumgarner’s career, he has made six starts against the Mets going 5-0 with a 1.86 ERA and a 1.025 WHIP.  In four starts at Citi Field, Bumgarner is 4-0 with a 0.62 ERA and a 0.828 WHIP.  Bumgarner faced the Mets twice this year with very different results.

On a May 1st game at Citi Field, Bumgarner earned the win pitching six shutout innings allowing six hits and three walks while striking out seven.  On an August 18th game at AT&T Park, in what was supposed to be a pitcher’s duel against Jacob deGrom, both pitchers struggled.  Bumgarner still got the win despite allowing six hits, four runs, four earned, and three walks with six strikeouts over just five innings.

With that in mind, looking at the recent history, the Mets do have something to build their confidence against Bumgarner as they head into Wednesday’s game.  There’s reason for confidence because the healthy Mets on the 40 man roster have actually fared well against Bumgarner:

Presumable Starting Lineup

  1. Jose Reyes 3-9
  2. Asdrubal Cabrera 3-7, 2 RBI, K
  3. Yoenis Cespedes 3-10, 2B, RBI, 3 BB, 3 K
  4. Curtis Granderson 0-3, BB, K
  5. Jay Bruce 3-23, HR, 4 RBI, 6 K
  6. T.J. Rivera 2-3
  7. Lucas Duda 0-1
  8. Rene Rivera 2-3, 2B, HR, 5 RBI
  9. Noah Syndergaard 0-2, K

Bench:

Have Never Faced Bumgarner (2016 against LHP):

Look, anytime you face Bumgarner in an elimination game, you should not feel comfortable.  In the 2014 Wild Card Game, Bumgarner pitched a complete game, four hit, one walk, 10 strikeout shutout.  In Game 7 of the 2014 World Series, Bumgarner came out of the bullpen on two days rest to throw five shutout innings to give the Giants their third World Series title in five years.

Once again, this is an even numbered year, and the Giants are once again sending Bumgarner out to the mound to begin the run to another World Series.  Standing in his way is 60’6″ postseason Syndergaard and a collection of Mets bats that have hit him well.  The Mets have a good chance to win this game.

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online.

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Mets Don’t Go Back to the Future

With the addition of John Olerud and the emergence of Rick Reed, the 1997 Mets made a tremendous leap forward going 88-74 to be a factor in the Wild Card race.  However, they would eventually lose out to a Florida Marlins team that was literally built to win the World Series that one season.

After that season, the Marlins disbanded because, as we were first learning out, that’s what the Marlins do when they win.  The Mets were one of the main beneficiaries of the the offseason sell-off with them obtaining Al Leiter and Dennis Cook.  Then the real boon came when the Marlins had swung a deal with the Dodgers to obtain Mike Piazza to unload a bunch of big contracts.  With the Mets struggling, due in large part to Todd Hundley‘s elbow injury, the Mets moved quickly and added Piazza.  With a week left in the season, the Mets won to go to 88-68.  All the Mets needed to do in the final week of the season was to win one more game to at least force a playoff with the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs for the Wild Card.  They didn’t.  Once again, finishing the year 88-74 was not good enough for the Wild Card.

Entering the final game of the 2016 season, with the Mets having already clinched the Wild Card, the Mets needed just one more win to finish the year at 88-74.

There was a version of me 20 years younger that wanted to see the Mets get that win to erase some of the bad feelings that an 88-74 record created.  It was going to be a difficult task because the Mets objective wasn’t to win this game.  The sole objective was to just get through it with everybody healthy so as not to compromise the team for the winner-take-all Wild Card Game this Wednesday at Citi Field.

For starters, it was Gabriel Ynoa who took the mound instead of Noah Syndergaard. Terry Collins would also give an at-bat a piece to Curtis Granderson, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Yoenis Cespedes.  Jay Bruce would get two.  T.J. Rivera, Jose Reyes, Rene Rivera, and Travis d’Arnaud would not play.  This was a full-on keep people fresh and don’t get anyone injured operation.

Ynoa would acquit himself well even if he couldn’t go five.  He would only throw 52 pitches in 4.2 innings allowing five hits, one run, one earned, and one walk with two strikeouts.  Collins would lift him for Jerry Blevins, who is probably the one Mets reliever who could’ve used some work, to get out of the fifth.  At that point, the Phillies were only up 1-0 on a third inning Maikel Franco RBI single.

The Mets would eventually go ahead in this game making the 88-74 season a reality.  In the sixth, Matt Reynolds doubled, and he would score on an Alejandro De Aza RBI singles.  In the seventh, Kelly Johnson hit a leadoff single, and he would score on a Kevin Plawecki two out RBI double.

The lead would not last long as the Phillies went to work against Erik Goeddel in the bottom of the seventh.  After an Andres Blanco single, an Aaron Altherr walk, and a Lucas Duda throwing error, the Phillies loaded the bases with no outs.  Cesar Hernandez brought home the first two runs on an RBI single, and then Jimmy Paredes knocked in the third run of the inning with a sacrifice fly.  That Paerdes sacrifice fly was an extra base hit if anyone other than Juan Lagares was manning center field.  Lagares once again reminded everyone that he is the best fielding center fielder in baseball, and that if he can at least manage one at-bat per game, he needs to be on the postseason roster.

The Phillies then added a run in the eighth off Jim Henderson to make the game 5-2.  That would be the final score of a game where both teams reached their primary objective.  The Phillies were able to provide a fitting send-off for Ryan Howard removing him from the game in the eighth so he could leave to a standing ovation.  The Mets just got through the game without suffering any injuries, and also got much needed reps for Duda and Lagares.

The Mets weren’t able to get that final win to erase the angst of the past when 88 wins just wasn’t good enough for the postseason.  Ironically, 87 was good enough this year.  With those 87 wins, the Mets put the capper on a mostly frustrating season.  However, in the end, they were able to go to make consecutive postseason appearances for only the second time in their history.  When viewed through that prism, this was a successful and enjoyable season.

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That Was Wild 

Baseball is funny. There was about a four month stretch where watching Mets baseball was a tedious and frustrating exercise. It was about as painful as watching Yoenis Cespedes try to play on an injured quad. 

Speaking of pain, seemingly everyone got hurt. Of all the people in the Opening Day lineup, only Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto didn’t wind up on the disabled list at some point. With Conforto making two trips to AAA, that left Granderson as the only Met starter available all season. 

We saw something similar last year.  However, we saw last year that a team can make it to the postseason with some big trade deadline moves, a weak schedule to finish the season, and tremendous pitching. 

Well, the trade deadline wasn’t the boon it was last year. Jay Bruce would struggle mightily until the last week of the season. 

The starting pitching we all expected wasn’t there. Matt Harvey was never healthy and needed season ending surgery. Zack Wheeler had multiple setbacks during his Tommy John rehab, and he wouldn’t pitch this year. Both Steven Matz and Jacob deGrom pitched with injuries until they couldn’t anymore. Both had season ending surgeries. 

Speaking of season ending surgeries, the Mets also lost David Wright to cervical fusion surgery and Neil Walker to discectomy. Speaking of bad backs, Lucas Duda was nowhere to be found for most of the year with him suffering a stress fracture in his back. 

Still, the Mets made it back to the postseason. They did take advantage of that weak season ending schedule. Since August 20th, the Mets have the best record in baseball. How did we get here?

Well, Noah Syndergaard and his 95 MPH slider had a Cy Young caliber season. Bartolo Colon had his best season as a Met. Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia were the most dominant 8-9 combination in all of baseball. Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman became not only unlikely contributors, but also reliable starters in the stretch run. 

Offensively, Asdrubal Cabrera became the best hitter in all of baseball the final month of the season. Cespedes got healthy, and Granderson regained his stroke. Wilmer Flores and Kelly Johnson combined to reasonably replicate Walker’s production until Flores got hurt and Johnson regressed. At that point, T.J. Rivera took complete advantage of the opportunity with the 27 year old undrafted rookie playing solid defense and spraying line drives all over the field. And yes, Jose Reyes returned to the Mets after his domestic violence issues to play better than anyone could’ve reasonably expected. 

That coupled with the Giants and Cardinals playing sub .500 ball, the Mets had their 1973 window, and the Mets took full advantage. All they needed to do was win one more game. 

Fittingly, Colon got the start (pun intended). He’d get a 2-0 lead off a pair of RBI singles from Rivera and Reyes. As he has seemingly done all year, Reyes scored Travis d’Arnaud from second. As usual, it was a questionable send by Tim Teufel as the ball beat d’Arnaud to the plate. Fortunately, the throw was to the first base side of the plate, and d’Arnaud made a nifty slide to just avoid the tag. 

That’s when ghost of Phillies past Ryan Howard tried to put a damper on the party by hitting a game tying two run home run. Up until the Howard home run, he was cruising and showing no ill effects from his tendon injury. 

In the sixth, James Loney would do his best Dave Magadan impression:

He also had a Cabrera impression with an impressive bat flip. 

Of course, Cabrera would be heard from with an RBI single in the ninth. Cespedes would also be heard from, but in a completely different way altogether:

Reed and Familia locked down the eighth and ninth inning for the 51st time this season, which is by far the most in the majors. 

The last out was recorded by Conforto making a sliding catch in left. The last time a left fielder with the number 30 caught the clinching out was Cliff Floyd in 2006.  Hopefully, these Mets can have a long playoff run like that team. Honestly though, we’re hoping for more than that. 

With that, the 2016 Mets completed their 1973 Mets regular season run. Now comes the hard part. That begins Wednesday with Syndergaard taking the mound against either the Giants or Cardinals in the winner take all Wild Card Game. 

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The Bruce Is Loose

Coming into tonight’s game, the Phillies made overtures they wanted to knock the Mets out if the postseason. 

Early on, Cameron Rupp would put the money where his mouth is by hitting a second inning sacrifice fly off Robert Gsellman. With Alec Asher starting with three perfect innings, it appeared that the Mets would have a dog fight on their hands. The Mets were up to the task. 

In the fourth, Yoenis Cespedes and Curtis Granderson would hit back-to-back two out singles to set the stage for Jay Bruce. Two weeks ago, it would be inning and rally over. Now?  He’s scorching hot, and he confined the hot streak with an RBI single in this spot. T.J. Rivera followed with an RBI single of his own to make it 2-1. 

That’s as close as the Phillies would get despite Jimmy Paredes giving one a ride in the sixth that looked as if it would put the Phillies ahead until Granderson ran his long fly down:

That would close the book on Gsellman who had a terrific slider going all night long. After that second inning rally, the Phillies wouldn’t get much going against him. Gsell man’s final line was six innings, seven hits, one run, one earned, one walk, and seven strikeouts. He’d hand the ball off to the unstoppable 7-8-9 combination of Fernando Salas–Addison Reed–Jeurys Familia. 

Unlike most games where they find themselves walking a tightrope, the Mets would get them some insurance runs. 

First, Bruce would chase Asher with a home run in the seventh making it 3-1.  Then, in the eighth, the Mets would have one of the more bizarre rallies, you will ever see. 

It started innocently enough with an Alejandro De Aza pinch hit single. He’d move to second on a Jose Reyes single, and then he’d find himself on third when Aaron Altherr overran the ball. Then, well, it was one of the more bizarre sequences, you’ll ever see.

While Reyes was running back to first with his hands on his head, Ryan Howard just couldn’t get to it. He couldn’t get to a ball that landed on the first base bag!  With that the ball bounced off the bag, with Cespedes reaching safely, Reyes being forced out at second, and De Aza scoring from third. 

Granderson would then walk moving Cespedes into scoring position. Bruce then followed this tomfoolery with an RBI single just against the shift to make it 5-1 Mets. Bruce continued the hot hitting going 3-4 with a run, three RBI, and a homer. After his RBI single, he was lifted for Juan Lagares for defense as Collins was taking no chances.  

With the Mets looking to potentially lock down a Wild Card spot tonight, Collins stuck with the Reed-Familia plan to close it out. With the appearance, Familia would set a career high in appearances and games finished. 

Depending on the outcome of the Cardinals game, the Mets mission for the 2016 season is almost finished.  

Game Notes: Lucas Duda returned to the lineup going 0-4. James Loney replaced him for defense in the ninth. This was Ron Darling‘s last game of the year on SNY. Something tells me it won’t be his last Mets game of the year. 

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Projected Wild Card Game Roster

One of the quirks of the Wild Card Game is a team is able to create a standalone 25 man roster just for that game.  After the completion of the Wild Card Game, the winning team is able to reset its roster for the Division Series.  With that in mind, when the Mets construct their roster, they really have no need to carry extra starting pitchers.  Instead, they can carry an extra reliever or two, and they can add a couple of bats on the bench for pinch hitting and running opportunities.  With that in mind, here is how I would construct the roster.

Catchers (2) – Travis d’Arnaud and Rene Rivera

With the Wild Card Game starting pitcher likely to be either Syndergaard or Lugo, it seems that Rivera will be Terry Collins choice as the starting catcher.  If the Mets fall behind early, he may very well go to d’Arnaud for offense.  However, for now, Rivera seems the likely starter.

First Base (2) – Lucas Duda and James Loney

The only variable we don’t know right now is whether Duda can play everyday during a postseason run.  However, we have seen him play effectively here and there as he gets more playing time.  If Duda is ready to go, he has to start.  If not, Loney can start with Duda being the power bat off the bench.  If Duda does start, Loney is there for insurance for Duda’s back, and he can hit right-handed pitching reaosnably well in the event the Mets need an extra pinch hitter.

Second Base (2) – Kelly Johnson and T.J. Rivera

If the Mets face the Giants and Madison Bumgarner, it is likely Rivera gets the start.  If the Mets face the Cardinals and Carlos Martinez, it is likely Johnson gets the start.  No matter which one gets the start, we know that the other one will be the best pinch hitting option when the Mets need a bit hit.

Third Base (1) – Jose Reyes

At this point, barring something unusual happening, Reyes is the team’s everyday third baseman and leadoff hitter.  He also serves as a backup shortstop in the event something happens to Cabrera

Shortstop (1) – Asdrubal Cabrera

Cabrera is the best hitter in the major leagues during the month of September, and while he has two injured knees, he is able to effectively handle all the balls that come within the vicinity of shortstop.

Outfield – (5) Jay Bruce, Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Alejandro De Aza, Curtis Granderson

Given how Bruce’s bat has come alive the past few games and with the way Conforto has been adapting to being a pinch hitter, both players should find themselves on the Wild Card Game roster.  What will be curious is whether it is Bruce or De Aza that finds themselves in the outfield with Cespedes and Granderson.  In a winner-take-all situation, Collins just might be inclined to go with the defense over the bat.

Starting Pitchers (3) – Bartolo Colon, Seth Lugo, and Noah Syndergaard

Whether or not Syndergaard pitches on Sunday, he has to be on the roster.  You cannot go down without the ability to throw your best pitcher, even if it is for one inning.  Same goes for your second best pitcher, which is why Colon should be on the roster.  As for Lugo, he should make the roster because: 1) he has experience as a short reliever; and 2) it is his turn in the rotation, so he can give you as many innings as you need.

Bullpen (5) – Jerry Blevins, Jeurys Familia, Addison Reed, Hansel Robles, Fernando Salas and Josh Smoker

If things go to plan, it is likely the Mets are not going to need more than Reed and Familia.  If the starter is able to go six, Reed can pitch the seventh and Familia can get the final two innings like he did in the NLDS clincher last year.  In the event things don’t go as smoothly, this bullpen can effectively mix and match.  Smoker seems like a given to make the roster because it gives the Mets an extra lefty in the pen, one with reverse splits, that can get a big strikeout when the Mets are in a jam.

Bubble –

If the Mets were to go with this group of players, and it seems likely they would that leaves the team with 22 players on the roster with decisions to make for the final four spots.  Here is a case for each of the potential bubble players:

Position Players

UT Eric Campbell  – As we saw when the Mets faced Adam Conley and the Marlins, Collins has fallen back in the habit of using Campbell as his right-handed first baseman.  In the event the Mets face the Giants, Campbell may well find himself getting a postseason start.  If not, he has shown the ability to be a very effective pinch hitter in tight games.

UT Ty Kelly – Collins has liked using as a pinch runner towards the back-end of the season.  Even though he is much better hitting right-handed in his short major league career, Kelly’s switch hitting ability does have some usefulness in neutralizing an opposing manager’s ability to go to a lefty/righty in a big spot for multiple outs.

CF Juan Lagares – Lagares just started to swing the bat, but we still don’t know if he can do it multiple times in a game if necessary.  However, with the Mets not needing to carry as many pitchers, Lagares could be kept on the roster to bunt, pinch run, and play defense in the late innings.

C Kevin Plawecki – Plawecki has not done much of anything offensively this season.  However, he remains a good defensive catcher, and his presence on the team would permit Collins to be aggressive in bringing in d’Arnaud for offense with full knowledge that the Mets have other catcher on the bench.

SS Matt Reynolds – Especially given Cabrera’s injuries further limiting his range, Reynolds could very well be the Mets best defensive shortstop.  Should Cabrera have to leave the game with an injury, Reynolds could step right in defensively.  Additionally, in the event Collins needs to start double switching people in and out of the game to keep a pitcher in longer, Reynolds’ ability to competently play second, third, short, and left make him a versatile and valuable bench piece.

Bullpen

LHP Josh Edgin – His chances of making the roster increase if the Mets play the Giants given the presence of Denard Span and Brandon Belt.  In that event, the Mets may want that one extra lefty to have multiple matchup opportunities.  Against the Cardinals, the need for the extra left-hander won’t be as great.

RHP Erik Goeddel – Even if it has been mostly in mop-up duty, Goeddel has pitched much better in September than he has all season.  Unlike Edgin or Henderson (below), Goedell has also shown the ability to go multiple innings lately thereby increasing his usefulness out of the pen.

RHP Robert Gsellman – Gsellman could make the team as a long reliever with Collins then using Lugo as a one inning reliever who can let it fly for one or two innings.  Additionally, with Gsellman’s sinker, Collins could elect to go with him in a situation in which the Mets need to get a double play.

RHP Jim Henderson – Henderson hasn’t been the same since coming back from the disabled list.  With that said, he’s still striking out 10.6 per nine, and so far this month, he has seven scoreless appearances.  More than any of the above, he has the biggest upside.  However, when he loses with 95+ MPH fastball, and it happens without a moment’s notice, he’s going to get hit around.

Prediction

Who the Mets carry for the final three spots will be largely based upon the opponent.  In the event that the Mets face the Giants, the odds of Campbell and Edgin making the roster go up significantly.  If the Mets face the Cardinals, who have multiple effective lefties out of the pen, someone like Kelly with his switch hitting ability could see his chances of making the roster increase.

Overall, considering how the Mets have handled the catching situation late in the season, the Mets should probably carry Plawecki as a third catcher.  Doing so will permit Collins to switch out Rivera for d’Arnaud if the Mets fall behind early or if the Mets need a right-handed pinch hitter.

If the Mets face the Giants, it is likely that Campbell will make the roster as the starting first baseman.  If the Mets face the Cardinals, the Mets will then likely carry Kelly as a pinch runner/pinch hitter or Reynolds.  Given how the concerns over Cabrera’s knees, and the need to double switch late in games, and because Reynolds has some extra pop in his bat than Kelly, Reynolds should be the choice.

The last spot becomes dicey.  As the Mets bullpen is constituted, the team has multiple pitchers who can go multiple innings thereby negating the need to carry an eighth reliever.  This choice here will likely be and should be opponent driven.  If the Mets face the Giants, Edgin should be the choice so the Mets can get multiple lefty/lefty matchups late in games.  If the Mets face the Cardinals, the team should probably carry both Reynolds and Kelly.  This would help the Mets neutralize the Cardinals unleashing their left-handed relievers against the Mets late in the game.

Of course, if Lagares is truly healthy enough to swing the bat, as he has done the past few games, he definitely needs to be on the roster.  He had a good postseason last year, and he’s the team’s best defensive outfielder.

There are a number of interesting decisions ahead, and ultimately it will depend on the opponent and whether the Cardinals keep enough heat on the Giants so Bumgarner had to pitch on Sunday.

Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Merized Online

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Terry Collins Decision of the Game – He Had His Best Game of the Year

Normally in this spot, I’d point out something Terry Collins did to really hinder his chances of winning not just the previous game, but in some instances, things he did that hurt his team’s chances of winning a game. That didn’t happen yesterday. 

Collins was put in the tough spot of having to start Sean Gilmartin because Noah Syndergaard was too sick to pitch. If you’re arguing someone else should have started, it’s just blind Collins’ hatred.

Logan Verrett forfeited the opportunity to be a spot starter with some poor starts when he took Matt Harvey‘s spot in the rotation. Between those starts and his work Friday night, he established he shouldn’t get the start. 
Rafael Montero has also shown himself undeserving of a start. He’d prove he shouldn’t have started giving up five runs in 3.1 innings of work. 
Gilmartin was the reasonable choice. When the Phillies put up a five spot on him with only two outs in the first, it was reasonable to go to Montero. Given the state of the Mets bullpen, it was the right move to stick with Montero for 3.1 innings despite the Mets falling down 10-0 in the fourth. 

At that point, Collins made his best decision of the year.  After giving his regulars a shot to put some runs on the board in the fourth, he got them out if the game.  

It was a chance for Asdrubal Cabrera to rest both of his knees, and Yoenis Cespedes to rest his quad. It also allowed Curtis Granderson and Jose Reyes to get a bit of a breather. 

Collins would also keep the right people in the game. Both Lucas Duda and Michael Conforto need to get at bats to get them ready for the postseason. Also, you want to give Travis d’Arnaud, who is still the team’s best offensive catcher, a chance to get going. 

It also allowed the Mets to get two former first round picks, Gavin Cecchini and Brandon Nimmo, some playing time and some exposure to the pennant race. It also allowed the team to take an extended look at Ty Kelly and Eric Campbell, both of whom may be on the bubble for a postseason roster spot. 

As it turns out, this group wasn’t content on playing out the string. The bench players and future regulars did all they could do to tie the game with them falling mercilessly short. That speaks positive of both them and their manager. 

It’s bizarre to think Collins best game was in a game the Mets were down early 10-0. But that’s the thing about judging managers, you just want them to have the right process and let the chips fall where they may. The more often your manager has the right thought process, and puts his team in a position to succeed, you’re going to win games. 

Coincidentally, Collins managed this game extremely well, and as it turned out, the team almost pulled out a victory. More importantly, this team should be fresher and in a good position to win tomorrow afternoon.  

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The Las Vegas 51s Made This Fun

Look, even with the Mets remaining schedule, it was unrealistic to expect them to finish the year undefeated. They’re going to lose some games. Tonight was a game you’d expect with Sean Gilmartin, who hasn’t started a game in over a month, having to make the spot start because Noah Syndergaard has strep throat. 

Things went worse than expected. Right off the bat, the Phillies went up 3-0 off a Maikel Franco three run homer. Gilmartin then loaded the bases, including an intentional walk to the right place hitter Jorge Alfaro. Things were going so poorly for Gilmartin tonight, he couldn’t escape the jam. Opposing pitcher Alec Asher would hit a two RBI single chasing Gilmartin from the game. 

Terry Collins brought in Rafael Montero, who eventually  got out of the jam. Of course with him being Montero, he’d make things a lot worse. 

Under his watch, the Phillies lead would expand to 10-0. Given the state of the Mets bullpen, Collins did the smart thing and made Montero just get through it. Montero allowed five earned on 3.1 innings. Collins pulled him after 67 pitches. 

The bright side about going down 10-0 is Collins was able to pull his starters and give them some time off. Collins gave his starters to put a run on the board, but they didn’t. With that, Collins pulled Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, and Curtis Granderson. He replaced them with T.J. Rivera, Gavin Cecchini, Ty Kelly, and Brandon Nimmo. 

Astutely, Collins also left in Travis d’Arnaud, Lucas Duda, and Michael Conforto. Each of these players need to get some reps if they are going to be the postseason contributors the Mets need them to be. 

This is the group of players that would make the game some fun. While the starters couldn’t hit Asher the backups could. 

Duda got the rally started by busting it out of the box and reaching on a Freddy Galvis error. After a d’Arnaud single, Franco would throw the ball away. Instead of a possible inning ending double play, Cecchini reached, and Duda scored. 

After a Rivera single, Nimmo would hit a double scoring Cecchini. Kelly then hit a sac fly scoring Nimmo. Collins then pinch hit James Loney who ruined everything by making an out. Being fair, he did hit the ball hard down the line, but still, it’s Loney. 

The 51s would then get two more in the sixth. Collins actually kept Conforto in against the left-handed reliever Joely Rodriguez. Conforto got the rally started with a one out walk, and Duda followed with a single up the middle. After a d’Arnaud strikeout, Cecchini would get his first career hit with an RBI double to right-center. For some reason (oh right, he’s a bad third base coach), Tim Teufel held Duda who could’ve scored easily. Fortunately, it wouldn’t come back to bite the Mets as Rivera dribbled down the line for an RBI single. It’s a hard hit single in the box score. 

In an attempt to not go to anyone who will pitch in the playoffs, Collins tried to push Jim Henderson to a second inning. Normally, this would a really bad move, but all things considered, it was understandable. When Henderson got in trouble, Collins went to Josh Smoker to try to get the Mets out of the jam. 

With Cesar Hernandez reaching on a bunt single Smoker double clutched on, and A.J. Ellis swiping third when d’Arnaud tried to pick him off, it looked like the come back dream was dead. When Odubel Herrera lifted a fly ball to left, it was a foregone conclusion.  Except it wasn’t. Kelly would unleash a parabolic throw home that would beat Ellis by a mile to keep the score at 10-6. 

Kelly would then lead off the bottom of the seventh with a single. Alejandro De Aza pinch hit for Smoker and flied out to center.  Eric Campbell then hit into an inning ending double play. It seemed as is the Mets best chance of winning the game was over. You would be wrong. 

Phillies reliever Hector Neris would issue back-to-back one out walks to Duda and d’Arnaud. Cecchini would then hit his second career double, barely missing a home run, scoring Duda to make it 10-7. Finally, the Mets could bring the tying run to the plate. Unfortunately, Rivera flied out to shallow center, and Nimmo popped out. 

At this point, you were expecting the Mets to come back in the ninth to win it.

Things got so insane Jay Bruce hit a pinch hit no doubt home run against Phillies reliever Michael Mariot. Campbell then came back from 0-2 and worked out an 11 pitch walk.  That allowed the Mets to bring Conforto to the plate as the tying run with Duda behind him. Once Conforto walked, Duda came up as the go-ahead run. It was the first time all night, the Mets got the go-ahead run to the plate. 

Duda popped out leaving it to d’Arnaud. Sadly, d’Arnaud hit a come backer to end the game. There was some slight disappointment with that. However, the young players made this a fun game to watch. Instead of losing 10-0, we got a sense of what the future may look like. It looks like a group of gritty, never say die, talented players. 

Yes, the loss hurts, especially with the Cardinals having already won and the Giants winning. However, if you are going to lose, you might as well have your big guys get some rest and watch your young players thrive in the process. 

Final Score: Phillies 10 – 51s 8 – Mets 0

Game Notes: With Cecchini, Nimmo, and Conforto playing, the Mets had three of Sandy Alderson’s first round draft picks in the same lineup. With the loss, the Nationals clinched the NL East. 

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Terry Collins Decision of the Game – James Loney Good Defender

It was just a little over 24 hours ago when James Loney had made two really poor plays in the field.  The first was his inability to stretch for a low pickoff throw from Bartolo Colon (imagine that a low pickoff throw by the base) that would send the speedy runner Mallex Smith to second base.  Fortunately, that wouldn’t cause any harm as Colon was quick on a come backer, and he would catch Smith straying too far off second base.

The second Loney play would help lead to a Mets loss.  Leading off the bottom of the eight, Ender Inciarte hit a groundball that went right through Loney’s glove and legs.  It was a pivotal play that saw the fast Inciarte reach and eventually score the tying run.  The Braves would also score a run in the top of the ninth, and Inciarte would be prominently featured again as he stole what could’ve been a walk-off three run homer from Yoenis Cespedes in the bottom of the ninth.

After the game, Collins acted surprised at the Loney error calling him a good defensive first baseman.  He is definitively not, and he hasn’t been in some time.

This year, Loney has a -2.8 UZR and a 0 DRS.  If Loney had enough innings to qualify, his UZR would rank 13th and his DRS would rank 10th in the majors.

Over the past three seasons, Loney has averaged a -2.2 UZR and a -1 DRS.  Those numbers ranks him as 14th in hte majors in DRS and UZR.  For what it’s worth Lucas Duda, who is still not fully back from his back injury, ranks ahead of Loney in both catergories (11th UZR and 6th DRS)

Looking over those numbers, Loney isn’t a terrible first baseman.  He is just a slightly below average one.  Even if you were not one that subscribes to the advanced defensive metrics, it is hard to overlook his unwillingness/inability to stretch for balls throw to first base as well as the errors he has made in the field.  Despite only playing 94 games at first base, Loney has eight errors, which is coincidentally gives him the lowest fielding percentage of any first baseman in the National League this season with a minimum of 700 innings played over there.

All of this is prelude to what happened last night.

With the Phillies starting the left-handed Adam Morgan, Collins elected to go with Eric Campbell at first base over Loney.  With the way Loney has hit in the second half and the way Loney has hit lefties his entire career, you’d be hard pressed to disagree with Collins over the decision to sit Loney.

In the sixth inning, the Phillies would bring on the right-handed pitcher Luis Garcia to pitch, and Collins would pinch hit Loney for Campbell.  Again, you’d be hard pressed to argue with Collins on this one as he’s removing Campbell from the game; a Campbell that was 0-2 with a strikeout on the night.  Understandably, Loney remained in the game.  Loney would again cost the Mets with his defense.

In the top of the eighth, and the Mets having a 4-3 lead, Odubel Herrera hit a sharp grounder up the middle that T.J. Rivera made an incredible diving stop to save a run with the speedy Cesar Hernandez on second base.  Rivera popped up, and threw to first base.  It was a close play, but Herrera was safe.  Look at Loney’s stretch on the play:

On what was a bang-bang play, Loney fully stretched.  If he did, there would have been two outs instead of one.  That might’ve completely changed Addison Reed‘s pitching sequence to Maikel Franco, who would hit a go-ahead three run homer.

Now, to be fair, Collins’ decision to leave Loney in the game was reasonable, as no one is quite sure right now whether Duda can physically play first base after having played there Sunday.  Overall, what is wrong with Collins is his mindset that Loney is a good defender.  He’s not, and he hasn’t been in a few year.  And if not for the heroics of Jose Reyes and Asdrubal Cabrera, Loney’s inability to stretch would have had a profound impact on what would have been another horrible Mets loss.

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