Steven Matz
There’s no blaming the Mets for Jacob deGrom‘s right lat injury. Injuries happen. However, we yet again have to question how the Mets handle injuries and their roster.
At the outset, the Mets are skipping deGrom’s start on Wednesday. He also isn’t going to throw in the bullpen for the time being. This is a very reasonable course of action. There’s no need rushing deGrom back in April possibly causing him further injury. With that said, there’s no reason why deGrom hasn’t been sent for an MRI.
It was just last year the Mets dealt with Steven Matz and his lat. The Mets thought he was fine. They didn’t send him for an MRI, and they let him make his next start. As we discovered, he shouldn’t have made that start. He wouldn’t throw another pitch for the Mets for another two months. The Mets treatment of Matz follows a pattern. It’s at this point, we’re obligated to review Jared Diamond’s breakdown in the Wall Street Journal of how the Mets downplay injuries:
For a second, let’s be optimistic about deGrom’s injury. Let’s assume it really is tightness and not worse. Let’s assume an MRI really isn’t needed. Why not put him on the DL anyway?
With deGrom missing a start, Logan Verrett will take his spot in the rotation. This is the same Verrett who pitched yesterday. This means he will be starting on two days rest on Wednesday. He also isn’t fully stretched out. He only threw 15.2 innings in eight Spring Training games. Long story short, the Mets bullpen is going to be taxed.
The bullpen is also going to be one man short as Verrett rests from his start.
Instead of having a short bullpen, the Mets should just put deGrom on the DL. He’s already missing one start. If deGrom were to go on the DL, he would be eligible to make his next start on Sunday, April 24th instead of Tuesday, April 19th against the Phillies. Despite the Mets losing two out of three to the Phillies this past weekend, the Mets should still be able to win with Verrett on the mound.
In turn, deGrom can use that time to rest, not rush back, and not exacerbate his lat injury. He can be home when his wife gives birth. He can spend some quality time home with his newborn son before going back on the road. deGrom can get his mind and his body in the right place before pitching again.
The Mets need to put deGrom on the DL right now.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsmerizedonline.com
During his Mets career, Jon Niese was seemingly an excuse a minute. If anything went wrong, he fell to pieces. If he had a poor start, there had to be another reason why other than the fact that he pitched poorly.
There was one-time in his career that he had a valid excuse. On July 24, 2015, Niese took the mound against the Dodgers. In three innings of work, he allowed six runs on eight hits. It was a horrendous start. A huge reason why was his head was somewhere else. While he was toeing the rubber at Citi Field, his wife was in labor in Ohio. He had to rush to the dugout to get on FaceTime to see his son being born. Niese claimed this day messed up his entire season.
Up until that point, Niese had a 3.36 ERA. He would finish the year with a 4.13 ERA. Being a parent is hard. Being a pitcher is hard. Maybe, just maybe, there was something to this Niese excuse.
With that in mind, the Mets should just skip Jacob deGrom‘s start and fly him down to his home in Florida. His wife’s due date has come and gone. If his wife goes into labor, he has a two hour flight. This doesn’t include getting to the airport, landing, and going to the hospital. Long story short – if his wife goes into labor, and he’s in New York, he’s missing the birth.
It’s not worth it. There’s nothing I would’ve traded to be there when my son was born. Every parent feels the same. He should be there now. His wife needs him, and his team doesn’t need him yet.
Due to baseball’s inane scheduling, the Mets have plenty of options to pitch on Opening Day. Matt Harvey can pitch on full rest as can Bartolo Colon. Steven Matz hasn’t pitched in over a week now and could move his start up one day. Also, the Mets could turn to the long man in the bullpen, Logan Verrett, and let him make a spot start like he did so well last year. That’s four pitchers the Mets can reasonably use to pitch on Opening Day.
If the Mets slide Verrett into the rotation temporarily, the Mets will not need deGrom until his wife has given birth. The Mets can even call-up another pitcher like Erik Goeddel or Sean Gilmartin, who can also make a spot start, due to Major League Baseball’s paternity leave.
It’s important for deGrom to be in the right mindset whenever he takes the mound. No one wants him up there pitching while his mind is somewhere else. Also, what do you do if he gets the call while he’s on the mound in the second or third inning? No one is warming up. You can’t just pull him off the mound. You also can’t keep the news from him while someone warms up in the bullpen. It’s a dilemma.
It can be best resolved by not pitching him. Let him go home and see his son get born. Let him take the mound when he can focus on baseball instead of peeking in the dugout to see if his wife has called.
Starting a game when his wife was in labor led to an awful start from Niese. As he will tell you, that start caused him to pitch poorly the rest of the year. There’s no reason to risk deGrom to the same fate. The Mets should skip deGrom on Opening Day. Jacob deGrom should be home with his wife right now.
The Mets have a $140 million payroll. The strength of the team is its young, cost-controlled pitching. The pre-arbitration pitchers make little money by baseball standards. However, their $500,000+ salary should allow them to live comfortably.
Families make a lot less than that, and they can put a roof over their families heads and put food on the table. One of the crazy things a family is able to afford, even with relatively modest means, is a mattress for everyone. When they go away to places like Florida, they can stay at places that have decent mattresses. So with that said, why can’t the Mets and their players?
Last year, Steven Matz almost missed the postseason because he injured his back sleeping on a Barcalounger. Yesterday, Jacob deGrom missed his Spring Training start because he tweaked his back sleeping on a mattress that was too soft. He was able to throw a bullpen. He then counseled with Matt Harvey who, like Baby Bear, had a mattress recommendation that is just right.
I know, I know. We should calm down. Matz was able to pitch in the postseason, and deGrom was able to pitch a pain free bullpen. However, I get nervous because it’s the dumbest things that interfere with a great or potentially great season.
The 1987 Mets never got traction with their pitchers missing time. Most notably was Dwight Gooden and his cocaine suspension. Aside from Gooden, I think every Met pitcher had an injury including the guy who threw batting practice.
In 1988, the Mets returned to form, but there was a strange injury that hurt their chances at another World Series title. On the day the Mets clinched the NL East, Bob Ojeda, who was amazing in 1986, nearly severed the middle finger on his pitching hand while trimming the bushes in his front yard. The Mets, who dominated the Dodgers in the regular season, lost the NLCS in seven games.
In 2006, Duaner Sanchez suffered a season ending shoulder injury during a late night cab ride to get a late night bite. This caused a number of moves to try to replace his spot in the bullpen. In the seventh inning of Game Two of the NLCS, Guillermo Mota shook off Paul Lo Duca and threw a change up that Scot Spiezio turned into a game tying triple. In Game Seven, Aaron Heilman allowed Yadier Molina to hit the series winning homerun. It’s possible Sanchez would’ve closed the door in either situation. Instead, he was unavailable.
The overriding point is that it’s not just the Tommy John surgeries that kill your chances. It’s also the yard work and can rides. It’s the unforeseen problems that arise. Maybe the Mets win in 1988 if Ojeda hires a gardener. Maybe the Mets win in 2006 if Sanchez orders room service. I don’t want to say maybe the Mets win in 2016 if their pitchers had better mattresses.
If in the equipment manager, I’m ordering a mattresses that Harvey recommended for every player. The 2016 season cannot be derailed by a bad mattress.
In honor of Pi Day, let’s look at all the things to look forward to during the 2016 season:
3.1 – Mike Piazza
This summer Mike Piazza is going into the Hall of Fame as a Met. He’s the first Mets position player to do so. The following weekend, he will also be the first Mets position player to have his number retired. He will forever be remembered for all of his homeruns, especially the homerun after 9/11. More importantly, he will forever be a Met.
41 – Tom Seaver
Seaver is the greatest Met to ever wear the uniform, and perhaps, the greatest right handed pitcher of all time. He was rightly dubbed “The Franchise.” With him, he began the aura of the Mets always having good pitching. This year his mantle will be picked up again by a dominant young staff reminiscent of the pitching staffs Seaver was a part of back in his day.
59 – Antonio Bastardo
Bastardo is one of a few key free agents the Mets added this offseason. Last year, the Mets had bullpen problems forcing them to overuse Jeurys Familia and trade a lot of good young pitching away to build a bullpen around the trade deadline. This year, Bastardo is a key arm in what appears to be a bullpen worthy of holding down the leads handed to them from their dominant starting pitchers.
26 – Kevin Plawecki
Plawecki had a rough 2015 whether it was because of him being rushed to the majors too soon or him needing sinus surgery. Given Travis d’Arnaud‘s injury history, it is very possible Plawecki is going to get another shot at being the Mets starting catcher next year. At some point, he will be called upon to not only continue his tremendous work as a receiver, but also being a more potent bat to the Mets lineup.
5 – David Wright
The biggest question mark in the 2015 season is how much David Wright can play and how effective he can be over the course of a 162 game season. Wright is the team leader and Captain, and they’re going to need him. At the end of 2015, he showed he can still hit and be an important part of the Mets. They’re going to need him at some point next year.
35 – Logan Verrett
After losing Verrett in the Rule 5 draft last year, he’s back with the Mets organization. Last year, he was an important swing man. He was first a bullpen arm and later a spot starter who gave a young pitching staff some rest before the postseason. In 2016, Verrett is likely to serve a similar role regardless of where he starts the year. At some point, the Mets will need him, even if it’s just to get the starters some rest before another postseason run.
89 – The Closing of a Window
After the Mets lost in the 1988 NLCS, there was no reason to believe that was the end of their window. There were veterans on the team, but there were also prospects behind them and rising stars on the team. There was still the pitching. It’s a stark reminder that when the window is open, you do everything you can in that timespan. You never know when that window closes.
79 – Paul Sewald
Sewald is just one of a number of Mets pitching prospects who are chomping at the bit to get called-up to the majors. Sewald has had a 1.83 ERA in his entire minor league career. If he continues pitching this well, he very well might get a call-up in the event there is an open bullpen spot this year.
32 – Steven Matz
In Matz’s first two career starts, he was incredible on the mound and at the plate. Even after his injuries, he has shown flashes of brilliance. He’s an early leader in the Rookie of the Year race. He’s primed to become the next great Mets starting pitcher. In 2016, he needs to stay healthy and take that next step.
38 – Dan Warthen
Warthen and the entire Mets organization have been blessed with amazing pitching. It’s encumbent upon Warthen to not only help each of these pitchers take the next step in their development, but also to help keep them healthy over the course of a full season.
4 – Wilmer Flores
We end with Flores, who was the last Mets to bat in the 2015 World Series. Flores was the player who cried at the possibility of leaving the Mets to a fan favorite. He has gone from the starting shortstop to a utility/platoon player. The 2016 Mets are a heavy left-hand hitting team. Flores can balance this out in his role as a super sub.
He’s also the first choice for third base in the event that Wright needs to sit or go on the DL for long stretches of time. He’s the primary backup at every infield position. He’s going to be an extremely important piece for the Mets.
They are all important actually. As we saw in 2015, a team will have to go deep into their roster at times. However, by building a strong 25 and 40 man roster, as the Mets have now, you give your team the best chance to make it to the postseason. Hopefully, the Mets can come full circle (pi pun) in 2016, and win the World Series.
In honor of Dr. Seuss’ birthday, here is my adapted Mets Dr. Seuss story to read with your little Mets fan.
“One Strike, Two Strikes, Three Strikes, You’re Out”
One Strike. Two Strikes. Three Strikes. You’re out.
Yes. Some are curves. And some are fast. Some are slow. Some are from Matz.
Some are from Jake. With strikes batters take. Even if these are batters that rake. Why do batters who rake take pitches from Jake? I do not know. Maybe the pitch did break.
Some pitchers are thin. Colon is fat. The fat one can pounce off the mound with the agility of a cat.
From here to there, from here to there, strikeouts are everywhere.
Some strikes bring heat. The heat is neat and sends batters to their seat.
Oh me! Oh my! Oh me! Oh my! What a lot of strikes go by.
Some are two seamers. Some are four. Some are just mean and batters want no more.
How do they do it? I cannot say. But I bet the pitchers trained very hard along the way.
We see the pitches come. We see the pitches go. Some are fast. And some are slow. Some are high. And some are low. Not one of them is like another. Don’t ask us why. Go ask your mother.
Say! Look at the strikeouts? One, two, three . . . . How many strikeouts do I see? One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten. The pitcher has eleven. Eleven! That’s nothing new. The next pitcher will do it too!
Swing! Swing! Swing! You ever see such a thing? Not one swing hit anything. But we know the pitchers have the ball on the string. The string makes the ball do anything. So . . . if you like to Swing! Swing! at anything just swing at the ball on a string and the strikeouts will sting.
Who am I? My name is Thor. When I strike someone out. I want more. It is so good. It is so right. The batters strike out all day and night. And when I strike them out, Oh Dear! The batters have had it up to here!
We like the strikes. We like them in threes. Each strike sets up a hitter, you see. We like the strikes and this is why: the strikes makes outs and batters go bye-bye.
Hello there, Zack. How do you do? Tell me, tell how do you plan your attack? How did you do that? Was the pitch new? Please tell me Zack. I do not like this batter at all. A lot of strikes the umpire did call. A National, a Phillie, a Marlin, a Brave. Oh! He’s out! The strikeout was my fave!
Oh dear! Oh dear! The batter is in fear. How does the pitcher throw that sphere? Why did the crowd just cheer? It seems another strike out is near. Say look! The ball did reappear. But he is out. So you can cheer. Again, cheer for the strikeouts my dear.
The batter is old. The batter is cold. The pitcher has a pitch that is bold. The pitch is off. The batter will fold. The pitch is off. The batter did fold. The pitcher’s pitch was bold. The batter is cold. The batter is old. And now the story of the at bat has been told.
The batter took a look. His confidence is shook. On the pitch, he did look. On the pitch, he did look. It was a hook, and the confidence was shook. We saw him sit and give a look. He took a look at the hook and he shook. The hook did the deed for the pitch the batter just took. SO . . . what good is a look at the hook he just took?
The batters were out, and they’ll lose some sleep. But not even counting sheep will help them sleep. By the light of the moon, by light of the star, they struck out all night on pitches near and far. They would never walk. Sitting in the dugout they are.
I do not like this ump so well. All he does is yell, yell, yell. This game is turning into a route. When the Mets strike all the batters out. The batters are quiet as a mouse. All they can do now is rouse.
At our house, we have stands. Those stands are full of fans. With two strikes, the fans give the pitcher a hand. Hands from fans is very good. Have you heard a hand from fans? You should.
I like to play. How I like to play! So, if I may, I play everyday. In May, I play everyday. I play everyday in May.
It is fun to win if you win with a grin. I grin and win with pitchers who do everything. I grin wide, and the batters heads hang low, their swings were so bad, and too slow.
This batter I think will blink. His strikeout will be written in ink. He really does stink. He hates to stink, and stink, and stink. The stink makes his face turn pink. The pink from the stink is after a pitcher’s wink. The batter hates the stink, the pink, and the wink. SO . . . if you really stink, the pitcher will give you a wink, after the strikeout is written in ink.
Hop! Hop! Hop! The batter went plop. Familia likes to hop from batter flop to batter flop. Familia hops from the mound and then . . . Hop! Hop! The ball goes from the catcher to third and around. Familia likes to hop all day and night from mound to ground and ground to mound. Why does he hop, hop, hop? The rally did stop.
Shush! Shush! Shush! Shush! Groan! Groan! Groan! Groan! Pitchers have fans making hitters shush and groan. All batters who shush and groan will have better luck when they return home.
Who is this Met? Say! He doesn’t break a sweat. You may never yet met a Met, I bet, who will let a batter make him sweat.
Did you ever make a batter see red? Did you ever strike a batter out and send them to bed? Did you ever have a batter shaking his head wondering how? Well, Mets pitchers can do it. They know how. If you ever did, you should. These things are fun and fun is good.
Hello! Hello! Are you there? Hello? You’re up to bat, hello! I said hello. Can you hear me Joe? Oh no. I can not hear you at all. I did not hear your call at all. I was not paying attention; want to know why. I’m not willing to face a Mets pitcher. Good-bye!
From near to far, from here to there, the Mets are striking batters out everywhere. These young Mets are called aces. They strike out the batters each one faces. Their pitches are fast . . . so fast, they say, they strikeout batters everyday.
Who am I? I’m the Dark Knight. I throw the ball with great might. My slider has bite and the spin is real tight. When I pitch to strikeout a batter without much fight, I pitch the ball at the right height. Then I say, “You have no fight against a slider that will bite!” And I give batters great fright as they strike out all night. So . . . if your plight is my might all night, you might swing with fright at the pitches from the Dark Knight.
Our house is a place called Citi. During each game all we feel for batters is pity. Would opponents like to play against our pitchers in a game? Come down! There’s only one great pitching staff in town.
Look at we did in the park in the dark. We only win at home. A visitor’s chances of winning are stark. We will win at our house. The win totals will grow and grow. All of baseball will take notice. Our pitching prowess will you will soon know.
And now good night. It is time to sleep. Our pitchers will soon put you to sleep as the hole you’re in is too deep. Today is gone. Today was fun. Tomorrow is another one. Every day, from here to there, Mets pitchers are striking out batters everywhere.
In judging players, managerial moves, and the like, sometimes we forget that players are human beings. It was something I was again reminded of when I read about Jon Niese‘s statements in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette about the 2016 season:
I should never have played that game. It [stunk] that I wasn’t there at the hospital. That’s when it all went downhill. I think that’s the thing guys don’t really realize with sabermetrics. If I wouldn’t have pitched in that one game, I probably would have stayed the course, stayed in a rhythm, but that just kind of knocked me off.
Now, Niese has a history of making excuses for his poor performances. However, he may not be off-base here.
Niese had a rough May, but he was turning things around. In June, he had a 3.00 ERA. Including the aforementioned start, Niese had a 2.87 ERA in the month of July. In that July start, he pitched three innings allowing six earned on eight hits. Looking at his stats, he’s right. His 2015 season went completely off the rails at that point.
After his son was born, he made 10 starts. He had a 4.99 ERA. Batters were tattooing him hitting .282/.344/.418. With Steven Matz returning from the DL, he was put in the bullpen. To his credit, it was a move Niese wanted to make.
There are several legitimate reasons why Niese had a terrible 2015. He claims it was being taken out of his rhythm. It’s possible. It’s also possible that it all had to do with the birth of his first child. I’m sure he was racked with guilt for not being there for his child’s birth. He had to do what he could do to help his wife when she was in another state.
Being a new parent is hard. It’s got to be even more difficult when you are so far away. You’re unable to see your child, to hold him, to see that little hand grab your finger.
This is what Niese was dealing with last year. A player who was renown for being a head case had even more on his plate. He then went on to have an absolutely miserable August and September. He was adjusting to life as a new father.
Niese is now in Pittsburgh. He’s with a new, perhaps better, pitching coach. His new pitching coach had shown he can work well in getting pitchers to resurrect their careers, to be better than they ever were before. He’s primed to have a much improved 2016.
By being in Pittsburgh, he’s also closer to his family. Things are settling down more at home. It’s bound to put him in a better frame of mind. It might be all Niese needed.
He’s only human after all.
There are legitimate reasons why you would say the Mets will not win the NL East. Fangraphs used its projection system to predict the Mets will finish behind the Nationals in the NL East.
Agree or disagree, at least we know Fangraphs has a rationalization for its conclusions. On the other hand, USA Today proudly flaunts they have no such projection formula. They just use the “human element” necessary in such projections to proclaim not only that the Nationals will win the NL East, but also that the Mets will miss the playoffs altogether.
Mets Aging Offense
One reason why USA Today sees the Mets falling behind the Nationals is an aging lineup with “six regulars on the wrong side of 30.” For what it’s worth, here’s a look at the Mets 2016 Opening Day starters:
- Travis d’Arnaud (27)
- Lucas Duda (30)
- Neil Walker (30)
- David Wright (33)
- Asdrubal Cabrera (30)
- Michael Conforto (22)
- Yoenis Cespedes (30)
- Curtis Granderson (35)
If we adhere to the axiom that a player’s prime is between 27-32, another way of saying what USA Today said was six of the eight Mets regulars are in their prime. Another way of saying what USA Today said is six of the eight Mets regulars are 30 and younger.
To put this in perspective, lets look at the Nationals 2016 projected lineup:
- Wilson Ramos (28)
- Ryan Zimmerman (31)
- Daniel Murphy (30)
- Anthony Rendon (25)
- Danny Espinosa (28)
- Jayson Werth (36)
- Ben Revere (27)
- Bryce Harper (23)
Three of the Nationals players are “on the wrong side of 30.” The average age of the eight Nationals regulars is 28.5. The Mets is 29.6. According to USA Today, that extra year is an indication that the Mets are in decline and the Nationals are on the rise.
Bartolo Colon: Fifth Starter
Personally, I am not the biggest Bartolo Colon fan. With that said, I can’t think of him making around 15 starts next year as a reason why the Mets will miss the playoffs.
Last year, Colon had an ERA+ of 89, and an FIP of 3.84. This makes him a below average starter. Keep in mind, he will only be in the rotation until July when Zack Wheeler has completed his rehab from Tommy John surgery.
The Nationals counter-part? Tanner Roark Roark is thrust into the starting rotating from the bullpen as the Nationals lost their second best starting pitcher, Jordan Zimmermann, to free agency. Roark had an ERA+ of 92 and a 4.70 FIP. In theory, Roark is keeping the spot warm for uber-prospect, Lucas Giolito. However, it should be noted Giolito has not yet pitched above AA.
Considering which statistic you choose, you can argue Roark is either just as bad or worse than Colon. As such, Colon is not a reason to say the Mets will finish behind the Nationals.
Thor’s Innings
One factor USA Today cited in saying the Mets should finish behind the Nationals is the scary prospect of Noah Syndergaard having to throw 50% more innings.
This is plain wrong. Last year, Syndergaard threw 150.0 innings in 24 major league starts. In the minors, he threw 29.2 innings in five starts. Does USA Today reay believe Syndergaard will throw 359.1 innings next year? The last pitcher to throw over 300 innings was Steve Carlton, and that was 36 years ago. The last pitcher to throw over 350 innings was Wilbur Wood in 1973.
No, Syndergaard threw 179.2 innings in 29 starts. If he averages roughly the same 6.1 innings per starts next year, and he makes 32 starts next year, he will only throw 19 more innings or 10% more innings.
Instead of Syndergaard’s innings, USA Today should’ve focused on Nationals starter Joe Ross. Last year was Ross’ first year in the majors. He made 13 starts with three relief appearances throwing 76.2 innings. In the minors, Ross made 14 starts and threw 76.0 innings. Between the two stints, he made 27 starts while pitching 152.2 innings. Next year, he will see a much greater percentage work increase than Syndergaard will.
Overall, if the increased workload is an issue for Syndergaard, it’ll be a bigger issue for Ross.
Matz’s Durability
Another factor mentioned for the Mets apparent downfall is the fact that Steven Matz has never thrown more than 140 innings in a season.
Well that is true. You know what else is true? In his entire pro career, Matz has a 2.25 ERA, including a 2.27 ERA in six starts with the Mets last year. Keep in mind, this is the Mets fourth starter and a favorite in the Rookie of the Year race.
Overall, USA Today is throwing cold water on the Mets rotation while ignoring the Nationals rotation issues. There are the aforementioned problems with Roark and Ross. Additionally, the Nationals saw Gio Gonzalez being to regress with a 1.423 WHIP last year. That’s an ugly number for a guy who has a reputation for struggling with command. Furthermore, he just hit that dreaded age 30 season.
Also, while Max Scherzer had an outstanding year last year, it should be noted it wasn’t perfect. Scherzer went 10-7 with a 2.11 ERA in the first half of the year. In the second half, he went 4-5 with a 3.72 ERA. Also, at age 31, he’s “on the wrong side of 30.”
Dusty Baker is a Magician
Last year, Matt Williams was worse than Jimmy Dugan was before he got into that fight with Dottie Henson as to whether or not Marla Hooch should bunt. Note, Jimmy Dugan was right. It very rarely makes sense to have a position player lay down a sac bunt.
Baker had earned the right to be a well regarded manager. However, he’s not a miracle worker.
He doesn’t make Anthony Rendon healthy for a full year as USA Today suggests. He also doesn’t make Steven Strasburg completely fulfill his potential making him a Cy Young winner. He doesn’t make Zimmerman or Werth healthy and productive. Yes, he can get the most from this admittedly talented Nationals team, but no, his presence alone doesn’t help this team overcome all of its issues. The only thing I would hazard a guess at is he would probably prevent Jonathan Papelbon from choking anyone in the dugout.
Picking Nits
Overall, USA Today has teams having a combine record of 2347-2430. Since baseball has no ties, any projection system should have teams as a whole with a .500 record. It’s an error. We all make them. With that said, with the decidedly one-sided analysis of the NL East, I believe it shows the attention to detail provided.
Conclusion
I’m not the typical Mets fan. The Nationals do scare me. You can concoct many a scenario in which the Nationals win the division. I just don’t think the one-sided analysis USA Today did was one of them.
The general consensus as to why Hall of Famer Walter Johnson was so dominant was the saying, “You can’t hit what you can’t see.” In analyzing MLB’s Statcast data, that saying could now be applied to the young New York Mets pitching staff.
As the article notes, the Mets threw more pitches than any other team over 95 MPH. Nearly a thousand more. The main reason for this was the trio of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard. Harvey’s two-seamer averaged 95.4, and his four seamer averaged 95.3. deGrom’s two seamer averaged 95.6, and his four seamer averaged 96.0. As all Mets fans know, Syndergaard led the pack. His two seamer averaged 98.3, and his four seamer averaged 98.4. Amongst starting pitchers Symdergaard threw the fastest.
This trio of hard throwing righties kept the Mets afloat in 2015 while the offense spluttered. When the team then assembled a major league capable offense, these pitchers led the Mets to the World Series. In 2016, it’s only going to get better.
Last year, the Mets had innings limits, skipped starts, and at times, six man rotations. Syndergaard wasn’t called up until May. In 2016, the Mets have said innings limits and the like will not be an issue. As such, all three of the Mets aces should be expected to make 32 starts and throw over 200 innings. This means more 95+ MPH fastballs. Again, batters will have trouble hitting the pitches they can’t see.
If that wasn’t enough, it gets even better. Steven Matz should start the year in the rotation. According to Brooks Baseball, Matz’s fastball averaged 94.57 MPH. Prior to Matz’s lat injury, his fastball averaged 94.90 MPH. With a full season of a healthy Matz, the Mets will further increase the amount of fastballs throw over 95 MPH.
In addition to a full season of Matz, the Mets can expect a half a season of Zack Wheeler. In Wheeler’s career, his four seamer averaged 95.87 MPH, and his sinker averaged 95.50 MPH. All told, upon Wheeler’s return, the Mets will feature a starting rotation that has five pitchers bringing the heat at over 95 MPH. That is just incredible.
However, why does it matter? Well, as FiveThirtyEight showed last year, it is just harder to hit a fastball that’s thrown 95 MPH and above. In total, batters swung and missed at pitches thrown this fast 22.8% of the time. That’s about 5-10% more frequent than pitches thrown slower.
More importantly, as we saw in last year’s NLCS, the Cubs are more likely to swing and miss at these pitches than any other team in baseball. Heading into the 2016 season, it appears that yet again it will be the Cubs standing in the Mets way. The pitching staff the Mets have constructed is not only effective against the Cubs, but also every single team in baseball.
The Mets 2016 pitching staff is the single best argument why any team in baseball will go to and win the World Series. The Mets young starters brought the heat last year. Next year will be more of the same.
Good luck to the National League next year because you can’t hit what you can’t see.
Editor’s Note: this article first appeared on metsmerizedonline.com
Last year, I made sure to bring my son to Steven Matz‘s first start. I wanted him to be there to see what we all presumed was the last installment of what was to be a Mets super staff.
It was a great day. Matz allowed only two runs over 7.2 innings. He went 3-3 at the plate with four RBI. It was such an amazing first start that his celebrating grandfather became a legend in his own right:
Matz followed that up with a terrific start in Los Angeles allowing no runs over 6.0 innings recording eight strikeouts. After that, Matz was shut down with an torn oblique that Dan Warthen checked out himself before the Dodger start.
He would’ve pitch again for another two months. He came back, and he went 2-0 with a 2.86 ERA in four starts. However, those numbers seem better than he pitched. In those four starts, batters hit .297/.330/.374 against him. He has a 1.45 WHIP. He would then have a back injury. This injury would not prevent him from being named to the postseason roster.
Matz wasn’t great in the postseason. He was 0-1 with a 3.68 ERA. He pitched into the sixth inning once in his three starts. He had a 1.432 WHIP.
What can we glean from all of this? Absolutely nothing. Matz’s first two starts were exciting, but they were only two starts. The four starts at the end of the season were after two months of complete inactivity. His postseason starts came more than two weeks after his last regular season start. His second postseason start came eight days later. His World Series start was 10 days later. He wasn’t getting enough work to stay sharp.
As of today, he’s probably a favorite to be the National League Rookie of the Year. Most Mets fans expect him to be an ace. I think that’s not fair. Matz hasn’t showed himself to be that good yet. The projections for him aren’t that rosy.
I don’t know what’s driving those numbers. I don’t know if his injuries last year are driving those low innings projections. It could be his two injuries last year.
I’m not sure how it is to presume Matz is injury prone. While he did have two freak injuries last year, it’s not fair to say he’s injury prone. So far, all we have is the two injuries this year and a longer than usual rehab from Tommy John surgery. So while I’m sure the Mets will have an eye on his innings pitched, I also believe, he has a reasonable chance to be healthy for a full season.
The next issue is why do the projections see Matz having such a high ERA next year. My presumption is that this is based on Matz’s 3.61 FIP last year. Based upon his FIP numbers, the projected ERAs are certainly justifiable. However, again, four of those starts were made after Matz had no baseball activities for two months due to his lat injury.
We all have hope Matz will be great in 2016. However, there is nothing from his 2015 season that can establish he will be good or bad next year. Whatever happens, I’m going to enjoy the ride.
Last year, the Mets were carried by their pitching. It helped them sustain an anemic offense until the Mets got healthy and made trades. It helped carry them to the World Series. It’s the promise for the future.
That future first comes into question around 2019. That is the year that Matt Harvey becomes a free agent. Zack Wheeler could become a free agent the same year or the subsequent year. Two years later Jacob deGrom becomes a free agent. After that, the Mets will have to address the free agent case of Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz. Naturally, this prompts the discussion of who the Mets should extend and when they should do it.
When these discussions take place, I find everyone to be extremely short-sided. Yes, it’s important to make a decision on the Mets starters, especially on Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard. However, I find that these discussions ignore Jeurys Familia. Like Harvey, Familia will be a free agent in 2019.
Familia was an exceedingly important part of the 2015 Mets. He was the stabilizing force at the back-end of a beleaguered bullpen. During 2015, Familia had the fifth most appearances. Of players who were strictly relievers, he had the third most innings pitched. He lead the league in games finished. He tied the Mets single season record for saves.
The advanced statistics also loved Familia’s 2015 season. He had an ERA+ of 200, which is astounding. It was the best amongst Mets pitchers. In fact, it’s a tick below Mariano Rivera‘s career 205 mark, which is the best in major league history. Familia’s FIP was 2.74, which, unsurprisingly, rates him as an excellent pitcher. Mariano’s career mark was 2.76. In essence, Familia’s 2015 was Riveraesque.
Keep in mind, Collins initially deployed Familia like Rivera. When it came time to close out the NLDS, Familia pitched two shutout innings. In the whole postseason, Familia had 12 appearances, and of those 12 appearances, he pitched more than one inning five times. He pitched 14.2 innings in those 12 appearances. Yes, he blew three saves in the World Series, but he only allowed one earned run the entire postseason. In reality, the blown saves were not on Familia but the Mets team as a whole.
Its important to lock-up some starting pitchers. If Harvey, deGrom, or Syndergaard leave, the Mets have other starters to keep having a strong rotation. If Familia were to leave, the Mets do not appear to have another reliever to take Familia’s spot. This makes extending Familia absolutely imperative.
So when it comes down to which Mets pitcher I would extend first, my answer is Jeurys Familia.
Editor’s Note: this article also appeared on metsmerizedonline.com