Steven Matz
As reported in several media outlets yesterday, Stephen Strasburg received a seven year $175 million contract extension. The deal has an average annual value of $25 million. The contract features rolling opt out clauses after the third or fourth year. Additionally, Strasburg will receive a million dollar bonus each year he pitches over 180 innings.
Strasburg is a former number one overall pick. He’s 27 years old. He has had Tommy John surgery. He is in his fifth full big league season. He throws hard with a 96 MPH fastball, 89 MPH change and slider, and an 81 MPH curve. In his career, he is 59-37 with a 3.07 ERA, 127 ERA+, 2.80 FIP, 1.089 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9. He’s struck out 200 batters in a season once, made one All Star team, and finished in the Top 10 in Cy Young voting once.
Before the contact extension, he was slated to be the top free agent on the market. Also, his agent is Scott Boras.
This contract confirms what all Mets fans know. Keeping the current starting staff together when they start becoming free agents is next to impossible. Not even the late George Steinbrenner would be willing to spend the money necessary to keep this staff together.
Back in 2013 when Matt Harvey was becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball, Mets fans would cheer “Harvey’s Better!” when Harvey faced Strasburg. They were right, and despite Harvey’s early season struggles, they are still right. Harvey has a better career ERA+ and FIP than Strasburg. Accordingly, when’s he’s approaching free agency in 2019, wouldn’t he be worth more money than Strasburg? Boras, who is also Harvey’s agent, will certainly make that case.
If Harvey gets that money, what does that mean for the other Mets starters? Right now, Noah Syndergaard is amongst the best pitchers in baseball at 23 years of age, and he’s only getting better. Steven Matz is a 24 year old lefty, who is 9-1 with a 2.56 ERA in his career. Also, don’t forget Jacob deGrom, who many consider to be the staff’s ace.
If all four of these players get a Strasburg deal, that’s $100 million just to the starting pitching. Keep in mind that doesn’t take into consideration the fact that each one of these pitchers could reasonably seek more when they come up to free agency.
As per Spotrac, the Mets payroll is at $131 million. That would mean the Mets would have $31 million to spend on the other 21 players. With that $31 million, the Mets will also have to find money to sign Jeurys Familia and Michael Conforto to their own lucrative contract extensions. By the way, Conforto is also represented by Boras.
Unfortunately, re-signing all of these players simply isn’t feasible. Deep down, we all knew it. The Stephen Strasburg signing only confirmed it.
The Mets have an important decision to make. With them starting a series tonight against the Dodgers, they will have to decide if they want to retaliate against Chase Utley or not.
With Ruben Tejada playing for the Cardinals now, it’s not a clear cut decision. The Mets don’t have to stand up for their teammate. Tejada’s long gone. Still, they may want to send Utley and the rest of the National League a message that they will not tolerate dirty play. They will stand up for their guys no matter where they play. Either direction the Mets go, there’s no wrong answer.
The only thing the Mets can’t do is pull a Shawn Estes. If you’re going to hit him, you have to hit him.
The Mets don’t appear weak if they decide not to hit Utley. They appear weak if they go to hit Utley, and they miss him. If Utley plays tonight, Steven Matz either has to stick one in his rear end or move on. If Utley sits, the decision will fall on Jacob deGrom‘s shoulders. If Utley pinch hits tonight, the game situation will have to dictate matters. Utley already cost the Mets one game. He’s not worth another one.
No matter what happens, the Mets just need to be decisive about it. Hit Utley, don’t hit Utley. Just don’t miss him. This Mets team is intimidating. The Mets can little afford to take some of that intimidation factor away by missing Utley.
Terry Collins must be relieved that for the second straight day, a Braves pitcher got the better of a Mets starter. Last night, it was Matt Wisler only allowing one hit in eight innings against a struggling Matt Harvey. Today, it was Jhoulys Chacin getting the better of Steven Matz.
With two outs in the third, Chacin singled off of Matz. It would put the game in a completely different perspective.
Instead of Collins agonizing again whether or not to leave Matz in during a no-hitter, he could manage it like any other game. Strange enough, Collins said before the game if he was presented with another Johan Santana situation, especially with a young pitcher, he wouldn’t hesitate to pull him. Collins did pull Matz after he threw his 106th pitch. At that point, Matz had thrown 7.2 innings, and he just allowed his second hit. Matz was just terrific. In addition to the two hits, he allowed no runs, no walks, and he struck out eight.
Matz has completely recovered from his awful first start. Matz is now 4-1. He’s lowered his ERA from 37.80 to 2.89. Matz is showing why many had him as an early favorite for the Rookie of the Year Award.
While Matz dominated the Braves from the mound, the Mets batters dominated at the plate:
.@Mets mash. https://t.co/9gTjUFgsgY pic.twitter.com/EBW2FcabrO
— MLB (@MLB) May 4, 2016
By the way, who had Rene Rivera as the first Mets catcher to homer this year in their office pool?
The other homers came from Asdrubal Cabrera and Lucas Duda, who hit two. Overall, the Mets completely dominated the Braves like we should all reasonably expect. The final score of 8-0 was deceptive. It made the game appear closer than it was.
Game Notes: This was the Mets third shut out of the year. The Mets have now won six consecutive series. This is the first time they’ve done that since 2006.
During MLB Tonight, former players were asked to compare themselves to current major league players. During John Smoltz‘s segment, he compared himself with a Mets pitcher who had Hall of Fame talent . . . Zack Wheeler.
During his breakdown, Smoltz noted he and Wheeler have both had Tommy John surgery. He also broke down how both he and Wheeler had the inverted W (which is really an M) and had the same landing point. There’s another comparison Smoltz failed to mention. They were both overshadowed by other Cy Young/Hall of Fame caliber pitchers in the same rotation.
Just like Smoltz was overshadowed by Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, Wheeler has become overshadowed by Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard. Some would even argue he’s been surpassed by Steven Matz.
For Smoltz, it didn’t matter he was overshadowed. He built himself a Hall of Fame career. He was 213-155 with 154 saves, a 3.33 ERA, and a 1.174 WHIP. He won a Cy Young Award and was an eight All Star. He was an incredible postseason pitcher taking his game to the next level. He was 15-4 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.144 WHIP.
Now, Wheeler is not on this level. So far in his career, he’s 18-16 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.339 WHIP. That doesn’t mean he can’t improve. He’s a four pitch pitcher with a 96 MPH fastball and a 89 MPH slider. He’s got the stuff to dominate. He just needs better control and pitch location. Once he does that, the results will come.
All Wheeler had to do is make adjustments. As Smoltz noted in the segment, he consistently made adjustments in his career to get better. With each adjustment, Smoltz would improve.
Making the right adjustments is the final piece to the puzzle. If he can do it, he can have a long dominating career like Smoltz. The awards and accolades will come no matter how much another ace overshadows him.
When Steven Matz first cracked into the majors with his grandfather jumping up and down, we expected him to do the Jerry Koosman each start. For the uninitiated, Koosman said his job as a pitcher was to shut them out and hit one out. Essentially, a pitcher should be a threat on the mound and at the plate. By the way, Koosman might’ve said that, but he was a terrible hitter.
Tonight, Matz had one of those Koosman dictated games. Matz pitched 6.1 innings allowing nine hits, two earned, two walks, and eight strikeouts. He got touched up was the third when noted Mets killer, Freddie Freeman, hit an RBI double. In the seventh, he ran out of gas, but Hansel Robles came in and got out of the jam. At the plate, Matz went 1-2. Terrible Braves team or not, Matz had a terrific night.
At the plate, the Mets had some firsts. In the first inning, Lucas Duda hit the Mets first sacrifice fly of the year scoring Curtis Granderson, who led off the game with a single and moved to third on a Michael Conforto single. Speaking of Conforto, he would have his first career stolen base in the third inning. After Duda hit his sacrifice fly, Neil Walker walked for the first time this year. Don’t worry, he would add a homerun in the eighth. The second run scored in the first would later score on an error. Sarcastic Mets fans would tell you this is the first time all year the Mets manufactured a run.
In any event, this game was what you would expect, or rather, what we should expect from Braves-Mets games this year. The Mets pitching and offense dominated. Every Mets starter, including Matz, reached base at least once. The Third Baseman Formerly Known as David Wright (RIP Prince) hit two doubles. He was 2-5 with one run, two RBI, and two strikeouts. Once again tales of his demise were greatly exaggerated.
Somewhat surprisingly, Juan Lagares got the start in center for an ailing Yoenis Cespedes. It was surprising because Jhoulys Chacin, who is a right handed pitcher. Before Cespedes was signed, it was presumed there was going to be a centerfield platoon with Alejandro De Aza facing the eighties.
Other than the Lagares -De Aza decision, nothing about tonight was surprising was the Mets domination. Once all was said and done, the Mets won 8-2. They need to dominate teams like this. They need to sweep teams like this. The Mets are in the process of doing that. They’re getting back on track.
After the Mets bullpen had to pitch 7.1 innings on Monday with Steven Matz‘s terrible start, and Logan Verrett having to come out of the bullpen to start in place of Jacob deGrom, the Mets were forced to make a move to add a pitcher to the roster.
There were plenty of good options available to them.
The Mets could’ve utilized deGrom’s paternity leave and called up Rafael Montero. However, the Mets didn’t want to do that because they then couldn’t backdate a potential deGrom DL stint to last Saturday. The Mets could’ve just placed deGrom on the DL, but for some reason they do not appear ready to do that. Apparently, that April 19th game against the Phillies is a must win, and you need deGrom to pitch in that game if at all possible.
No, the Mets decided to demote a player. Looking over the roster, the only pitcher who realistically could be demoted is Hansel Robles. He seems like a natural choice as he pitched 2.2 innings on Monday, and he could use an extra day or two. If Montero falters, the Mets could recall Erik Goeddel or Sean Gilmartin to take his place on the roster.
In this scenario, Robles would have to stay in the minors for 10 days unless the Mets put deGrom (or someone else) on the DL. Given Robles’ current role, losing him for 10 days would be palatable. Montero, Goeddel, or Gilmartin could easily be the long man and/or last man in the bullpen.
Instead of the Mets following the reasonable course of action, they determined it was in their best interests to demote Eric Campbell. In essence, the Mets decided to go with the worst possible choice.
Now,there is nothing wrong per se with demoting Campbell. He’s a career .230/.315/.325 hitter. He has good attributes as a player, but nothing that Campbell has done in his career would ever prevent him from being demoted. However, if he’s being demoted, it should be because the Mets are calling up another position player like Matt Reynolds, not because they are adding a pitcher to the roster.
The Mets demoting Campbell for Montero shortens the Mets bench. In a world where you have David Wright on your team, you should never shorten your bench. On any given day, Wright can wake up sore and not be ready to play. If that happens, not only are you down another player, but you also have no infielders on your bench.
By the way, the Mets are playing a day game after a night game. Terry Collins has said there’s no hard-and-fast rule stating Wright must sit a day game after a night game. However, it’s also true that the Mets have so far refrained from playing Wright in a day game after a night game. No one knows how his back will respond to it. No one knows if he will be able to get loose in time to play a full nine innings.
Instead of taking this into account, the Mets thought it would be best to potentially have no infielders on the bench. The Mets thought it would be best to realistically only have two options on the bench for Wednesday’s game (Collins is loathe to pinch hit with his catcher). Also, apparently, the Mets do not foresee the need to have more than two pinch hitters available in a game where the starting pitcher hasn’t pitched in almost a month and wasn’t stretched out in Spring Training. No, the Mets are setting forth a gameplan where they will have Verrett go deep in the game, and they will be alright with just two bench players. What could go wrong?
The Mets are in the midst of a four game losing streak and would rather potentially sacrifice the the last game of the homestand to give themselves the best possible shot of winning a game against a terrible Phillies team in Philadelphia. The Mets apparently didn’t learn their lesson on Monday about the perils of having a shortened roster.
Overall, the Mets put themselves in a tough position all because they’ve deemed an April game in Philadelphia a must win. Why else wouldn’t you put an injured pitcher who is already missing a start and bullpen sessions on the DL?
React to last night’s loss the way you want. No matter what your reaction may be, we can all agree that the Mets have some work to do. This includes the pitching staff.
Before last night’s loss, the Mets lead the National League in ERA. After Steven Matz‘s dud last night, the Mets are now ranked sixth. They went from a 2.08 ERA to a 3.40 ERA. It’s a warning of overlying on small sample sizes. It’s also a reminder that it’s really about the process. While it’s a results oriented business, the pitching coach needs to focus on things like the pitcher’s mechanics and not his ERA.
In that respect, Dan Warthen has some work to do as three of his starters have some mechanical issues.
Steven Matz
Last night, Matz was terrible. There are a number of things you can point to as the reason like the long layoff. However, as Kevin Kernan reported in the NY Post, Matz’s mechanics may have been to blame:
He looks like a young guy who needs a month in Triple-A to clean up some things,” one veteran scout at the game told the Post.
Looking at last night’s game, there was no doubt Matz needs some work. He wasn’t fooling anyone last night, and the Marlins were on top of his pitches. Preferably, Matz can do that work with Dan Warthen instead of Triple-A. Regardless of where he does it, Matz needs to need to get himself right.
Jacob deGrom
The talk throughout Spring Training was Jacob deGrom‘s fastball ranging between 91 – 93 MPH. That is down from the 96 MPH fastball he averaged last year. There were a number of reasons posited why that was the case from him starting getting ready for the season later to him saving bullets for the regular season to him getting nicked up a couple of times during Spring Training.
In his first start of the season, deGrom was still averaging 92 MPH. Some said there was no need for caution because he looked dominant at times even without the extra MPH on the fastball. Some later speculated it might’ve been the result of his lat injury. However, on the April 11th edition of MLB Tonight, Pedro Martinez stated that deGrom was dropping his arm angle. It was his belief that if deGrom fixed his arm angle the extra MPH could return to deGrom’s fastball.
Matt Harvey
This season is supposed to be the season for Matt Harvey. He’s another year removed from Tommy John surgery. He’s got his slider back. The only thing he had to worry about was going out there and dominating like he did in 2013.
It hasn’t started out that way. Harvey was 8-0 in April coming into this year. This year he’s 0-2 with a 4.63 ERA and a 1.463 WHIP. At times, he seems to have difficulty locating pitches. Harvey isn’t blaming his bladder problems. As Neil Best of Newsday reports on Opening Day, it’s a mechanical issue:
“I felt alright,” Harvey said. “There were times I felt fine and other times when it was hard finding a rhythm and getting my release point.”
After Sunday’s loss to the Phillies, Harvey’s day changed on one pitch he left out over the plate. Again, as Kevin Kernan of the NY Post reported, it was a mechanical issue as, “Harvey said he didn’t get the arm extension on the killer 1-2 slider.” As Kernan further reported the coaching staff is concerned enough for Dan Warthen to start “studying film to see what the issue is with Harvey.”
Dan Warthen is going to study film for at least three of his starters. Fortunately, it is still early in the season. The Mets have plenty of time to figure things out. The pitching is going to be there, and yes, the offense will as well. However, while the offense is figuring things out, the Mets need their pitching. As we saw last year, this Mets staff can keep even the most abysmal of offenses afloat. As we saw last year, the Mets pitching can carry them to the World Series.
It’s the Mets pitching that is going to win them the World Series this year.
Editor’s Note: this article first appeared on metsmerizedonline.com
At a time when Mets fans were still clamoring for Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets made a move designed to sure up their bullpen when they signed Antonio Bastardo to a two year $12 million contract.
Generally speaking, the move was well received. While Bastardo was a left hander, he was not a LOOGY. For his career, he actually holds righties to a very respectable .211/.307/.331. Bastardo was a guy that the Mets could slot into the seventh or eighth inning. He was supposed to be a very important part of the Mets bullpen. So far, in 2016, it hasn’t happened that way.
After a terrific stint with the Mets last year, Terry Collins handed the eighth to Addison Reed. After a terrific Spring Training and an even better start to the season, Jim Henderson has locked down the seventh. To date, Bastardo’s role has been much less glamorous.
Bastardo’s first appearance came in a Mets 7-2 trouncing of the Phillies. It was Bastardo’s job to mop up the ninth inning. Last night, Bastardo was called upon to eat up a many innings as he could after Steven Matz only lasted 1.2 innings. Bastardo was the second guy in after Hansel Robles pitched the first 2.2 innings. Essentially, Robles is the seventh or last guy in the bullpen, and Bastardo is the sixth.
Somewhat surprisingly, Bastardo has become the forgotten man in the bullpen. Collins feels more comfortable going elsewhere when he’s looking for a guy to get some important outs. It’s too early to say or suggest that’s he’s in the doghouse, especially since the season’s only six games deep. The fact is Collins feels more comfortable looking to Reed and Henderson. It’s not what anyone had in mind when the Mets signed Bastardo this offseason.
With all that said, there’s still a lot of games left to be played. As the season progresses, Bastardo is going to get some important innings. After he shows this Mets coaching staff what he can do in those situations, he will be put into more and more high leverage situations.
However, until that time, Collins is going to continue looking elsewhere when the game is on the line.
Editor’s Note: this was also published on metsmerizedonline.com
The Mets sent out Steven Matz, who is the proverbial fourth member of what had been touted as the Big Four. Mets fans all hope each of these pitchers will be future Hall of Famers. Tonight, Matz did a pretty good impersonation of Tom Glavine.
Like Glavine, Matz allowed seven runs to the Marlins. At least Matz lasted a little longer. Matz’s final line was 1.2 innings, six hits, seven earned, two walks, and one strikeout. Before the game, Matz was 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA. This year, he’s 0-1 with a 37.80 ERA.
In the fateful second inning, seemingly every Marlin got a hit including Barry Bonds and Don Mattingly got hits. Of course, Giancarlo Stanton provided the exclamation point:
.@Giancarlo818 puts an exclamation point on the 2nd inning!#StantonSmash | #LetsGoFish pic.twitter.com/rTwMWtl5HI
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) April 12, 2016
It needs to be constantly reiterated, but Bonds seems to be having a very real impact on this Marlins team. Six of their eight regulars are hitting over .300. They had no problem hitting Matz. This is a young Marlins club with a lot of offensive talent. If they realize that potential, it’s a definitive blow to the Mets chances to return to the postseason . . . especially with how this club plays the Marlins.
As for the Mets, their bullpen did a yeoman’s job. Hansel Robles pitched 2.1 innings allowing four hits, one earned, one walk, and three strikeouts. Antonio Bastardo pitched 1.1 innings allowing four hits, two runs, one walk, and two strikeouts. Addison Reed pitched 1.2 innings with no hits, no runs, and four strikeouts. Jeurys Familia was pressed into action even though he has the flu. Jerry Blevins pitched the ninth. The night was such a disaster that Blevins finally allowed a hit in his Mets career. It was an infield single to Dee Gordon with two outs in the ninth.
The Mets might’ve avoided burning through their entire bullpen like that if they would’ve just put Jacob deGrom on the DL. Sean Gilmartin, who was very effective as the long man last year, could’ve soaked up some of those innings. It would’ve been all the more imperative with Logan Verrett going on Wednesday.
Offensively? Well the Mets had seven hits and three runs. All of the runs came after the game was over. Two of those hits were from David Wright, who despite his career being declared over, has been the Mets best offensive player so far this year. He’s hitting .333 with a .478 OBP. Perhaps that’s the reason why the man with the bad back played all nine innings in a 10-3 blowout.
All kidding aside, the Mets decision making in this young season has been perplexing. Terry Collins bats three lefties bunched up together every day (with his splits, Neil Walker is effectively a left handed hitter). Jim Henderson leads the Mets in appearances despite not having pitched in two years and coming off a second shoulder surgery. Remember that next time Collins gets emotional over Johan Santana. At least Collins isn’t to blame for the team’s mismanagement of the deGrom/bullpen situation.
With all that said, this is a game the Mets should just forget about. It’s another game to forget in what has been a mostly forgettable start to the season. Fortunately, momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher, and Noah Syndergaard is scheduled to pitch tomorrow. So, in that sense, the Mets have some momentum going.