Steven Matz

In Change of Pace, Mets Win

Coming into today’s game against the Brewers, the Mets had lost more catchers (Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki) than they had games on the season.  One of the reasons why that was the case was this Mets team has gotten contributions from almost everyone on the team and each night presents a new hero.

Early on, that hero was Todd Frazier. Up until today, he had been homerless in a Mets uniform.  That changed rather quickly when he hit a homer off Brewers starter Zach Davies to give the Mets a 2-0 lead.

The Mets first run came in the first when Yoenis Cespedes followed an Asdrubal Cabrera one out double in the first inning.

After cruising through the first three innings where just about Lorenzo Cain being the only Brewer to challenge him in any way, Steven Matz would have a tough fourth inning allowing a double to Jesus Aguilar and a homer to Hernan Perez in consecutive at-bats tying the game at 2-2.

Of course, much in the same way the Mets have done all season, they immediately responded.  This time the response came in the form of Frazier hitting his second home run of the day.  That gave the Mets a 3-2 lead which would expand in the fifth inning.

The inning began with Michael Conforto drawing a lead-off walk against Davies and a Cabrera single.  After Davies struck out Cespedes, Craig Counsell went to the lefty Dan Jennings to face Jay Bruce and Adrian Gonzalez.

The move was completely ineffective as Bruce hit an RBI double to score Conforto, and Gonzalez brought Cabrera home with a sacrifice fly.  Apparently not having done enough damage to the Brewers’ chances of winning, Jennings threw a wild pitch allowing Bruce to score from third giving the Mets a 6-2 lead.

With the Mets having a lead and winning streak like this, it appeared the Brewers were going to have to be unconventional to try to beat the Mets.  In retrospect, they probably want to take back challenging Cespedes in the field:

Hyperbole aside, with Matz cruising and the way the Mets bullpen has been pitching of late, this game seemed like a lock for the Mets.  As we would soon see in the sixth inning, that couldn’t be further from the truth.

The inning started when Bruce dropped a Domingo Santana fly ball.  The Brewers immediately capitalized with a Ryan Braun two run homer to pull them within 6-4.

After striking out Travis Shaw, the book on Matz was done.  He would be in line for the win after striking out five allowing four runs (three earned) on three hits and two walks in 5.1 innings.  With Seth Lugo coming in, it seemed like this game was a lock.  Instead, the Mets would find themselves hanging on to try to capture the victory.

Lugo was immediately met with back-t0-back singles by Aguilar and Perez.  Lugo would get out of the inning after inducing Orlando Arcia to ground into the 5-4-3 inning ending double play.

Lugo would be bailed out a bit again in the seventh.  After Cain reached on a single, he thought he would challenge Cespedes on a Santana single.  Cespedes nailed the speedy Cain to help snuff out that rally.

Even with Lugo not being himself, Mickey Callaway sent him back out for the eighth.  Finally, the Mets got burned as Shaw hit a solo homer to pull the Brewers within one run.  After an Aguilar single, Callaway was not about to let this one get away.

Callaway pulled out all the stops to make sure this one didn’t get away.  First, it was AJ Ramos to get Perez to fly out.  Then it was Jerry Blevins to face Eric Sogard.  After Sogard singled, Robert Gsellman came on to get Jett Bandy to get out of the inning.

The only thing left was for Jeurys Familia to come on in the ninth and get his Major League leading seventh save of the season.  Familia did that with a rare and much needed 1-2-3 inning to get the Mets to 11-1.

So far, the Mets have won games a number of ways during this nine game winning streak.  The handing on for dear life win we saw tonight was a different one than the other wins we have seen the Mets amass this season.  It’s just more evidence that no matter what happens this team will find a way to win.

Game Notes: Since joining the majors in 2012, Cespedes has a MLB leading 65 outfield assists.  Mets became the first New York team to start the season 11-1 since the 1955 Brooklyn Dodgers.  Before the game, Jacob Rhame was sent down to Triple-A, and d’Arnaud, who elected to have Tommy John surgery, was put on the 60 day disabled list.  Brandon Nimmo and Jose Lobaton were called up in their stead.  Lobaton tripled in his first at-bat as a Met.

Five Aces Finally Deal In

The Mets are 9-1, and they are now off to the best start in franchise history.  However, right now, when it comes to the Mets, this isn’t even the biggest news of the season:

Saturday, April 7th at Washington – Steven Matz
Sunday, April 8th at Washington – Matt Harvey
Monday, April 9th at Miami – Noah Syndergaard
Tuesday, April 10th at Miami – Jacob deGrom
Wednesday, April 11th at Miami – Zack Wheeler

Sometime after 7:10 P.M., after the bottom of the first has ended, the dream will finally be realized.  The Five Aces will have finally taken one turn through the rotation. What’s funny about it is the dream was thought to be dead.

In 2015, before Syndergaard and Matz were called up to the majors, Wheeler needed Tommy John surgery.  As a result, this meant the dream, which was still in its infancy, would have to wait a year.

Heading into 2016, the Mets re-signed Bartolo Colon to help allow Wheeler to take his time in his rehab.  He would have a number of setbacks, and he would never pitch in 2016.  That year also saw deGrom, Harvey, and Matz befall season ending injuries themselves.

In 2017, the Mets were once again poised to have them all in the same rotation.  However, Matz would need to begin the season on the disabled list.  Syndergaard didn’t have an MRI and tore his lat.  Harvey and Wheeler would find their way onto the disabled list with stress reactions after they had probably been rushed into the rotation before they were ready.

The progress in 2017 was they at least all made a start in the same season.  That was something Generation K never did.  In 1995, we saw Jason Isringhausen and Bill Pulsipher in the same rotation.  Like with Wheeler, it was discovered Pulsipher needed Tommy John during the ensuing Spring Training.  As a result, this meant it was just Isringhausen and Paul Wilson in the rotation.

In 1997, Isringhausen was the only one to pitch for the Mets with Wilson pitching in the minors with shoulder problems and Pulsipher experiencing depression and complications from Tommy John.  Pulsipher would be the only one to pitch for the Mets in 1998 with Isringhausen hurt and Wilson hurt and in the minors.

In 1998, Pulipsher was the first to go.  He was traded to the Brewers for Mike Kinkade.  In 1999, it was Isringhausen’s turn to go as the Mets thought it better to use him to obtain Billy Taylor rather than use him in the bullpen.

Pulsipher came back to the organization in 2000, and he lost the Spring Training competition for the fifth starter spot to Glendon Rusch.  Both he and Wilson would get traded that season as the Mets sought reinforcements in Lenny Harris, Bubba Trammell, and Rick White to help them win a World Series.

The odd thing about seeing Generation K all being traded away for supporting pieces was they were supposed to be the leading drive towards a World Series.  Overall, they’d never appear in the same rotation, and they would pitch for the Mets in the postseason.

Seeing Generation K’s struggles makes what is happening tonight all the more remarkable.  Not only are we finally seeing these five pitchers in the same rotation, but we have already seen them have the success we once expected from Generation K.  In fact, they’ve been much more successful.

In many ways, seeing Wheeler start tonight is going to slay many demons for the entire Mets organization.

From the start the Mets have had and the seemingly magic tough Mickey Callaway has had, there is a lot more in store for the Mets.  That said, short of David Wright taking the field again, it is going to be hard to envision a more powerful moment that will happen this (regular) season.

Callaway’s Third Managerial Test

If you look at the Mets first eight games of the season, Mickey Callaway has already been tested twice.  The first test came in the first five games of the season against the Cardinals and the Phillies.

In those five games, Callaway had to show everyone he wasn’t Gabe Kapler or Aaron Boone.  Put another way, he had to show us and his team he knew what he was doing.  He showed that mettle which has escaped both Kapler and Boone thus far in his putting his team in their best position to win a game.  More than that, he capably sat Brandon Nimmo after a big game and played Juan Lagares by justifying it to the media and his team rather than simply pointing to numbers.  Yes, Callaway used the numbers to inform his decision, but he handled his situation capably with no griping from the fans or team.

The next test came much earlier for Callaway than it comes for most managers. That test was whether he had the ability to manage in a big series.

We can argue whether an April series is ever truly a big series.  What we cannot argue is Callaway managed it like it was one, and his team responded in kind sweeping the Nationals and announcing this was a team to beat in the National League East.

Part of managing this like a big series was riding his bullpen arms hard.  Jeurys Familia pitched 1.2 innings for the save, and he has pitched six innings over his first five appearances.  Robert Gsellman pitched two games in the series, and he has made two two inning appearances over a four day span.

Seth Lugo was given the heaviest workload.  Two days after pitching two innings, he was used for an inning to close out an 8-2 game.  Three days later, he’s pitching three innings and picking up the win in a 12 inning game.

When it is a big series, and when you have short starts from both Matt Harvey and Steven Matz, you can certainly understand why Callaway rode his top guns the way he did.  The Mets had a chance to make a statement in that series, and they did.

Now, the Mets are not sneaking up on anyone.  We know they’re good, and the rest of baseball knows it now too.  The question is how does Callaway handle it.

Does he continue to ask his top relievers to keep going to the well, or do we start to see more innings from Paul Sewald (likely to be demoted when Zack Wheeler is activated), or Jacob Rhame, who made a statement of his own closing out Sunday’s win?  Really, how does this Mets team respond to success?

Do they continue looking like a team having fun grinding the salt and pepper shakers?  Are they going to be alright with splitting playing time or staying on the bench for stretches?

We don’t know the answer to those questions yet.  However, we do see Callaway is the type of manager who can deftly handle these and all questions this team is going to face.  Hopefully, we will see Callaway pass this third test with flying colors like he did with the first two tests.

Mets Handling of Swarzak’s Injury May Indicate a Real Culture Change

During Spring Training, the Mets seemed to be going down the same path they always do with their handling of Yoenis Cespedes‘ wrist.  He had soreness in the wrist, and the tried to play through it.  Finally, he would get a cortisone shot and miss some games.  Considering how he has started the season, a crisis was clearly averted.  However, it did seem like the injury and how it was handled was a little too reminiscent of how things were handled under the old regime.

Over the last few seasons, the Mets had a culture where they either pressured players to play through potentially serious injuries, or they allowed players to push through without a proper examination.  We saw it time and time again.

Cespedes has sat around for days and weeks before being placed on the disabled list.  Last year, even with the Mets admitting Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler were not at complete strength, they began the year in the rotation, and eventually, they went down with stress reactions.  The Mets were quite vocal in their criticisms about how Steven Matz needed to pitch through this injuries, and in the last two seasons, we have seen him undergo season ending surgeries.

Perhaps the biggest indication there needed to be a change was the Mets handling of Noah Syndergaard last year.  After being scratched from a start with what was believed to be biceps tendinitis, Syndergaard refused to get an MRI.  In his next start, he lasted just 1.1 innings before having to leave the game with a torn lat.  The injury cost him almost four months, and really, it helped cost the Mets the 2017 season.

Something had to change, and the Mets did so at least on paper bringing in new personnel with different ideas on how to both prevent and treat injuries.

Considering the Mets past history coupled with the somewhat questionable handling of Cespedes’ wrist injury in Spring Training, it really made how the Mets were going to handle Anthony Swarzak‘s injury an important test case.

As initially noted by Tim Britton of The Athletic, the Mets did not initially schedule any tests for Swarzak.  Theoretically, those test would not even be needed as Swarzak reportedly feeling better the next day.  And yet, in a complete change from how things were handled previously, the Mets scheduled a precautionary MRI on Swarzak.

While the reports were Swarzak “only” had a sore left oblique, the team put him on the disabled list and called up Hansel Robles.

Precautionary exams.  Putting players on the disabled list immediately.  Having a full 25 man roster available for each game.  This is a stark contrast to how injuries used to be handled with the Mets, and it is hope we will not see a repeat of the injuries which befell the Mets over the last three seasons.

As the Mets broke camp and began the season, it seemed like this year was going to be different.  Seeing how Swarzak’s injury was handled, things really might be different.

Mets Season Really Begins Now

If you break it down, the Mets clearest path to the postseason is for the team to win at least 60% of Noah Syndergaard‘s and Jacob deGrom‘s starts.  These are the Mets c0-aces, and they are the surest bet each time the Mets go through their rotation.  Assuming they make 30 starts a piece, and the rest of the rotation pitches at least .500, the Mets will win at least 87 games, which should be good enough for one of the two Wild Card spots.

While wins are not pitcher dependent, there is usually a correlation between a pitcher pitching very well and his team having a chance to win the game.  More often than not, if a pitcher is going to dominate the opposing offense, you are going to see your team win games.  Overall, while you may not see Syndergaard or deGrom walk off the mound with the “W,” you may see the team have one once the game is over, and that’s what matters for this discussion.

We have seen both starters accomplish the feat.  Back in 2015, the Mets were 20-1o (67%) in games started by deGrom.  In 2016, the Mets were 19-12 (61%) in games started by Syndergaard.  This isn’t to say it will happen. Rather, it suggests it is possible, and it looked all the more possible in their respective starts.

Still, for the formula to work, the rest of the rotation has to pull together to give the Mets at least a combined .500 record.  With the injuries and struggles the past few seasons, that is far from a certainty.

Steven Matz‘s first start had to give you some reason for concern.  Yes, he was squeezed by CB Bucknor, but the home plate umpire was not the reason why Matz was leaving pitches up in the hitting zone.  Bucknor was just reason why Matz walked three and needed 89 pitches to get through just four innings.

Normally, you say Matz can only go up from here, but that would ignore how the Mets pitching performed in 2016 and 2017.

Where Matz failed, the Mets now need Matt Harvey to step up.  Perhaps more than anyone Harvey has symbolized the Mets rise and fall and hopefully their rise again. There was hope with the Mets when Harvey returned in 2015.  His ineffectiveness and further injury was a part of the 2017 despair.

Now, Harvey has a manager in Mickey Callaway and pitching coach in Dave Eiland, who believe in his talent.  Neither wanted to see Harvery traded, and they gave him one of the top four spots in the starting rotation.  Purportedly, they found and fixed the mechanical issue Dan Warthen has been talking about for years and had not been able to fix.

Is Harvey really fixed?  We don’t know, and until Harvey puts together a significant number of good starts together, there will be doubters.  Understandably, there may be doubters long after that.

What we do know is the Mets need to piece together wins in the games Syndergaard and deGrom do not pitch.  Yesterday, Matz didn’t step up to prove he’s the next guy.  Jason Vargas won’t pitch for a while, and there are questions after his second half last year.  Seth Lugo won the job out of Spring Training, but there are issues about his long term viability in the rotation with his inability to go three times through the order.

That leaves Harvey, and that is why in many ways, the 2018 season truly begins today.

Matz Squeezed, Mets Winning Streak Bursts

In my life, there are two offbeat holiday traditions I look forward to each and every year if the calendar permits.

The first is St. Paddy’s Day. To me, there is nothing better than the NCAA Tournament starting on a Thursday St. Paddy’s Day.

That morning begins with me making a soda bread, and if all goes according to plan, and by now it does, I’m in front of the TV as the first tip-off begins with a slice of soda bread fresh from the oven. I then wash that down with a beautiful Guiness.

The other tradition is Easter Sunday baseball.

Find the Easter baskets. Go to mass. Enjoy a lovely brunch. Turn on the Mets game.

My first memory doing this was 1987. I knew it was that year because the Easter Bunny stuffed my Easter basket with those beautiful wood bordered Topps cards.

I remember my uncles gathering around the TV to watch the Mets face off against the Cardinals. I still remember my Nana’s consternation over it. That consternation would ensue for decades.

Thirty-one years later, my ritual was renewed with the Mets again losing to the Cardinals.

Really, the Mets lost because Steven Matz wasn’t sharp, and Luke Weaver was.

Matz left the ball up, and that led to Paul DeJong and Yadier Molina capitalizing by each hitting solo homers off Matz.

Those homers accounted for two of the three Cardinals homers of the day and for two of the three runs Matz allowed in his four innings pitched. Being optimistic, this was a stepping stone for Matz.

Sure, you could point to how he needed 89 pitches to get through four. He walked three and struck out just four. The Cardinals scores in three straight innings off of him. However, lost in that was just how bad CB Bucknor was behind the plate, and how much he squeezed Matz.

The converse was Weaver had the same strike zone, but he didn’t struggle the same way. To be fair, he dealt with a more platoon friendly lineup.

Brandon Nimmo was sick leading to Juan Lagares getting the start. Surprisingly, Lagares had a great day at the plate going 3-4.

With everyone sputtering around him, there’s no surprise he was left stranded all three times.

One of the bigger offenders was Wilmer Flores. Even with the right-handed starter, Flores got the start over Adrian Gonzalez.

Flores would go 0-4 with two strikeouts. He also failed to cash in in a key opportunity. In the first, the Mets didn’t get the early led with Flores striking out with runners on first and second with two out.

After that, DeJong hit a solo shot in the top of the second, and the Cardinals never looked back in their 5-1 win.

Big picture, the Mets have nothing to worry about here. It was just one loss in a series they not only played well, but they took two of three. If the Mets play this way, and they’re doing places this year.

And as an aside, it was fun to share one of my favorite traditions with my two boys.

Game Notes: Both Paul Sewald and Jacob Rhame made their 2018 debuts, and they both surrendered a run.

Who’s Better: 2015 or 2018 Mets?

Entering the season, Yoenis Cespedes made the bold declaration the 2018 Mets were better than the 2015 Mets.  Now, if you recall that 2015 team, it did feature players like Eric Campbell and John Mayberry.  However, those players were not on the team at the same time as Cespedes.  When Cespedes joined the Mets, he was on a much better roster, a roster which went all the way to the World Series.

With that consideration, it is certainly bold for Cespedes to make that declaration, but is he right?  Let’s take a look:

CATCHER

2015: Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Plawecki
2018: Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Plawecki

Just looking at those names, you may be quick to think not much has changed in the catching situation.  In reality, everything is different, and the main difference is these catchers stand on much different footing.

The 2015 season was d’Arnaud’s best as a player with him posting a 126 OPS+ and emerging as an elite pitch framer.  Plawecki was overmatched at the plate, but he did handle the pitching staff exceptionally well.  Since that time, both had gone on to disappoint in 2016 and much of 2017.

Things changed at the tail end of 2017.  Plawecki finally looked like the player the Mets once thought he would become.  d’Arnaud would finish the season with a strong September.  As a result, they will look to begin the 2018 season in a unique time sharing agreement designed to keep both healthy and effective all year long.

VERDICT: 2018if both replicate their Septembers, this won’t even be close

FIRST BASE

2015: Lucas Duda
2018: Adrian Gonzalez

In 2015, Duda hit .244/.352/.486 with 27 homers and 73 RBI.  He was as streaky as he ever was unable to carry the team when they needed his bat most, and he almost single-handedly beat the Nationals in a key late July series.

Gonzalez is coming off the worst year of his career, and he is still dealing with back issues which requires him to warm up two hours before the game starts.

VERDICT: 2015 Gonzalez may not be around long enough to make a bad throw

SECOND BASE

2015: Daniel Murphy
2018: Asdrubal Cabrera

We got a glimpse of what Murphy would became with him slugging .533 over the final two months of the season. Even with the increased power, no one could predict the home run barrage he’d unleash in the postseason.

For his part, Cabrera finds himself at second a year after protesting moving there or anywhere. He’s been a good hitter with the Mets, and he’s been terrific in the clutch. We’ll see if the injuries will permit him to be that again.

VERDICT: 2015 – Murphy’s postseason was an all-time great one

THIRD BASE

2015: David Wright
2018: Todd Frazier

This was really the last hurrah for Wright in a Mets uniform. He was very good in the 30 games he played after coming off the DL hitting .277/.381/.437. He’d hit two emotional homers: (1) his first at-bat since coming off the DL; and (2) his first World Series at-bat at Citi Field.

Frazier has been a solid to somewhat underrated player. Over the last three years, he’s averaged 34 homers, 88 RBI, and a 110 OPS+. He’s been a good fielder averaging a 5 DRS over that stretch.

VERDICT: 2018 – Frazier is no Wright, but he’s healthy

SHORTSTOP

2015: Ruben Tejada
2018: Amed Rosario

Tejada was not supposed to be the starting shortstop in 2015.  After wasting a few chances which led to Omar Quintanilla getting the bulk of the playing time over him, the Mets moved on to Flores.  Eventually, Collins and the Mets went back to Tejada because: (1) he had steadier hands; and (2) he had a .362 OBP in the second half.  Who knows how everything would have turned out had Chase Utley not broken his leg with a dirty slide/tackle.

Rosario is the future of the Mets.  Yes, there are flaws in his game like his very low walk rate.  However, this is a uniquely gifted player who is dedicated to being better.  He’s electric, and he’s got the skill set to be a superstar for a very long time.  For now, we will settle for him being a good defensive shortstop who brings real speed and upside to the table.

VERDICT: 2018 Rosario’s ceiling is just way too high

OUTFIELD

2015: Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson
2018: Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce

Cespedes was just an otherworldly player when he joined the Mets.  Despite his only being a Met for a few months, he finished in the Top 15 in MVP voting.  Really, the MVP for the Mets that year was Granderson who was a leader in the clubhouse on the lineup.  He had the most homers from a lead-off hitter, and he was a Gold Glove finalist.  Conforto jumped from Double-A to post a 133 wRC+ and a much better than expected 9 DRS in left.

With respect to the 2018 outfield, we see Conforto is a much better play (when healthy), and Cespedes is nowhere near as good as he was when he joined the Mets.  To be fair, there’s no way he could, but he’s still an All Star caliber player.  This means the main difference between the squads is Bruce and Granderson.

VERDICT: 2015 – That Cespedes was just that much better.

BENCH

2015: Michael Cuddyer, Wilmer Flores, Kelly Johnson, Juan Lagares
2018: Wilmer Flores, Juan Lagares, Brandon Nimmo, Jose Reyes

From the moment Uribe and Johnson joined the Mets, they were game changers.  They both brought a winning attitude and game winning hits.  In addition to the two of them, Lagares was the defensive specialist, a role to which he is best suited, and Cuddyer was a platoon partner with either Conforto or Duda depending on whether Lagares started the game as well.  Overall, it was a veteran bench who provided needed leadership.

The Mets current bench is similar to the 2015 bench with Reyes trying to emulate the Uribe role even if he’s not as productive a player.  Flores is Flores, but a better hitter, and believe it or not, a worse fielder.  Lagares rediscovered his range he lost in 2015.  Nimmo should be in the everyday lineup and leading off, but early indications are he won’t.

VERDICT: 2015 – Uribe and Johnson were just that important

ROTATION

2015: Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Bartolo Colon
2018: Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Matt Harvey, Jason Vargas

When you consider Vargas was basically brought in to replicate what Colon did in 2015, the question is whether you believe the Mets top four starters are better as a group now or then.  Looking at it objectively, Syndergaard is the only one who has improved with no one knowing what Harvey and Matz can still provide.

VERDICT: 2015 – they were just healthier then

BULLPEN

2015: Jeurys Familia, Tyler Clippard, Addison Reed, Hansel Robles, Jon Niese, Sean Gilmartin, Erik Goeddel
2018: Jeurys Familia, Anthony Swarzak, AJ Ramos, Jerry Blevins, Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, Paul Sewald

Familia was that good in 2015 that he was able to cover many of the warts in the 2015 bullpen.  This resulted in Collins using him for multiple innings more than any other closer that year.  Reed would begin his emergence as a great reliever, but a back injury would cost Clippard of his effectiveness.  One surprise was Niese performing well as a lefty in the bullpen.

When you include Sewald’s Triple-A experience, this is a bullpen with three closers, six pitchers with closer’s stuff, and a very good LOOGY in Blevins.  Even if Familia is not as good as he was in 2015, it won’t matter because there is enough depth here for the Mets to not need to rely upon him as much.

VERDICT: 2018 – they’re just deeper and with more upside

MANAGER

2015: Terry Collins
2018: Mickey Callaway

For all the warts and problems Mets fans discovered with Collins, he had his finest year as a manager in 2015.  When the ship could have sunk multiple times, he pulled the team together and kept things afloat until the team got healthy and reinforcements arrived.  Of course, he followed this up by helping cost the Mets the World Series with a series of baffling decisions which all blew up in the Mets faces.

Right now, Callaway looks like a genius.  He’s innovative batting Cespedes second and Rosario ninth.  He came down hard on Dominic Smith for being late.  His players seem to love him, and the baseball world roundly believes the Mets made an excellent hire.  However, the season isn’t even a week old.  Even if everyone is a fan at the moment, let’s check back in a couple of months to see if he’s an innovative genius or if he’s a know-it-all who can’t leave good enough alone.

Verdict: 2018 – Collins did cost the Mets a World Series

VERDICT

If you break it down, the 2015 Mets were better at first, second, outfield, bench, and rotation.  The 2018 version is better at catcher, third, short, bullpen, and manager.  Looking at the breakdown, you can say it’s a 5-5 draw.  However, in reality, it’s not.  That 2015 team pitching rotation was just so dominant, and hypothetically, if these teams were going to step on the same field, the 2015 rotation would dominate the 2018 version.

That said, there is a lot of talent on this 2018 team, and from what we have seen so far, this is a roster tailor made to what we presume is Callaway’s talents as a manager.  If Callaway is indeed as good as we hope it will be, we can see him and Dave Eiland taking this pitching staff as a whole to the next level.  If that can happen, and with a little help, this Mets team could accomplish what the 2015 version didnt – win the World Series.

2018 Mets Player by Player Projections

As I do from time to time, we need a “completely serious” analysis and projection of each and every Mets player who is expected to contribute during the 2018 season.  While there are many prjoection systems which claim to be fool-proof, there are none that will be this accurate about the Mets:

Sandy Alderson – The other 29 GMs in baseball will be left in complete hysterics when Alderson is calling around for a right-handed reliever to help boost the team’s chances to making the postseason.

Mickey Callaway – The writers will overwhelmingly vote him as the National League Manager of the Year.  The most cited reason for giving him the award will be the fact he didn’t insist on playing his worst players or forcing his players to play through crippling injuries.

Dave Eiland– Multiple Mets pitchers will hug him for actually fixing their mechanics and for listening to them when they say they’re hurting.

Tyler Bashlor – When someone notices how similar his name is to the ABC reality show hit The Bachelor, they’ll say how “The Bashlor” is handing out strikeouts like they’re roses. We should all hate that person.

Jerry Blevins– Until he eats a sandwich, the socks given away in his honor will hang around his ankles

Bryce Brentz– He’s going to be the guy who has one or two at-bats this season, and someone is going to invoke his name as a former Met to try to sound like he knows more about the Mets than you know anything.

Jay Bruce– After a four home run game, all Mets fans will want to talk about is when he is going to move to first base.

Asdrubal Cabrera – After a slump, Callaway will move Cabrera down in the lineup causing Cabrera to bring his kids to the clubhouse and have them ask why Callaway doesn’t want them to eat.

Jamie Callahan– His wearing #43 will serve as a constant reminder that not only was he part of the return for Addison Reed, but also how the Mets turned quality MLB players into six right-handed relief prospects. That will be the worst possible sequel to I Know What You Did Last Summer.

Yoenis Cespedes – After an MVP caliber first half, he will feel like he has earned just one game of golf as a reward during the All Star Break.  He will immediately be vilified.

Michael Conforto – After a huge cut and a swing and miss, Conforto will wince for a moment thereby causing a passionate Mets fans behind home plate to have a heart attack.  This will led to a call for the netting to be filled in and for fans to have to watch the game on a tape delay.

Travis d’Arnaud– During a remarkably healthy season, he will finally be forced to catch Syndergaard, who had spent most of the seaosn with Plawecki as his personal catcher.  On the first pitch of the game, Syndergaard throws a 101 MPH fastball which immediately shatters d’Arnaud’s hand.

Jacob deGrom– After a slump, he’s going to look to grow his hair out.  Once he realizes his hair cannot possibly reach it’s old length during the 2018, he’s going to grow a really long beard and change his entrance music to “Legs” by ZZ Top.

Phillip Evans– When he cashes in his check for his postseason share, Evans will fondly remember that April pinch hitting appearance.

Jeurys Familia – After he gives up a seventh inning homer to Conor Gillaspie costing the Mets a game, fans will scream for him to pitch in the ninth inning again.

Wilmer Flores – He will be in such hysterics during his struggles in his first game in the outfield his crying on the field in 2015 will look like a case of the sniffles.

Todd Frazier– It will take many Mets fans a long time to come to grips that Jersey Boy Todd Frazier does not use a Bruce Springsteen song as his walk-up music.  That point will finally come when they realize Frank Sinatra is from Hoboken and not NYC.

Adrian Gonzalez – He will become James Loney2.0.  He will hit well enough for the Mets to stick with him, and the front office will continue to stick with him long after he has since been useful.

Robert Gsellman – As he continues to wait in Las Vegas for his opportunity to get back to the Majors, he will eventually care what Sandy Alderson thinks of him.

Matt HarveyHe’s going to pull a reverse Ben Affleck by going from The Dark Knight moniker to Daredevil.  He will earn that name by following Eiland’s instructions to throw inside with such reckless abandon to the point where people start to question if he’s gone blind.

Juan Lagares – After once again injuring his thumb on a diving attempt, the Mets will finally realize Lagares’ injures were the result of him literally using a gold glove to try to play center.  While they found the answer and solution for the thumb injuries, they will still be perplexed on how to fix his hitting.

Seth Lugo– We won’t know if people keep referring to the hook with him because of his incredible curveball or because of how Callaway won’t let him face a lineup for a third time.

Steven Matz– In addition to the sandwich he has named after him at the Se-port Deli, he will have one named after him at the cafeteria at the Hospital for Special Surgery.

Brandon Nimmo– Despite putting up great numbers, the Mets will inform Nimmo they unfortunately have to send him down to Triple-A due to a temporary roster squeeze.  When he’s still smiling through the ordeal, they will force him to seek psychological counseling.

Kevin Plawecki– On a day when the Mets are getting blown out, the frustrated Plawecki will use the last of his six mound visits to derisively tell his pitcher he can pitch better than this. The pitcher will remind him he has a better batting average than Plawecki.

AJ Ramos – After striking out Giancarlo Stanton in a Subway Series game, he’s going to go home and find his friend has moved out of their shared apartment.  Odd Couple style hilarity ensues.

Jose Reyes– One day, he will hit a triple and score on a mad dash to home plate.  He will have that old Reyes smile, and it will electrify the crowd.  It will also cause everyone to forget that he is one of the worst position players in all of baseball.

T.J. Rivera – After he comes off the disabled list, he’ll deliver in the clutch for the Mets and his teammates will honor him as the player of the game.  The Mets will make sure he’s not standing in front of Plawecki’s locker when they take a photo to tweet out.

Hansel Robles– Many will credit him with the discovery of extra terrestrials by his discovery of a UFO in the Vegas night.  Years later, Robles will sheepishly admit all he was doing was pointing up at another homer he allowed.

Amed Rosario– To the surprise of us all, Rosario will strike out looking when the pitcher throws him a pitch which he was surprised at and was not ready to swing at. Entire belief systems will be shattered.

Jacob Rhame– Like Jason Phillips, he will soon realize fans may first like you for the googles and smile in your photo, but really, they’re only going to love you if you produce.

Paul Sewald– After having spent a year with Terry Collins, he’s going to be the player most comfortable with having no defined role in the bullpen.  However, it will be an adjustment for him not having to warm up multiple times per game.

Dominic Smith – When he gets called up to the Majors as part of September call-ups, he will be late on a pitch causing his manager to believe he learned nothing from Spring Training.

Anthony Swarzak – The jokes about not knowing how to spell his name will get old by mid-April.  The jokes will be rediscovered in August when more fans tune it to a Mets team that is a surprising contender.  The jokes will continue to not be funny.

Noah Syndergaard– He will continue his “Twitter Feud” with Mr. Met.  It will be discussed ad nausesum during nationally televised games.  America will think it’s amusing only fueling the spat even further and giving no hope to Mets fans who have long since found this to be unfunny.

Jason Vargas – When Reyes introduces himself, Vargas will remind him they were teammates in 2007.  Both recall that season and will agree it never happened.

Zack Wheeler– He will be converted to a reliever, and in a surprise to us all, he will lead the league in saves. In a surprise to him that league will be the Pacific Coast League.

David Wright– He will apologize and sheepishly admit the Mets crown was an embarrassingly bad idea.  He will try to come up with a way to rectify it, but no one will listen to his ideas on the topic anymore.

Meet The Mets Fan: Derek Carty

The Mets Fan

My name is Derek Carty. I’m the former fantasy manager for sabermetric sites Baseball Prospectus and The Hardball Times (now part of FanGraphs), but I’m best known these days for my work in Daily Fantasy. I write for ESPN, was on Baseball Tonight during the 2015 season, and put out content through RotoGrinders, including my DFS projection system THE BAT, which has been shown to outperform even Vegas lines.

How You Became a Mets Fan

I’ve been a Mets fan since I was a kid. The crazy-good infield of John Olerud, Edgardo Alfonzo, Rey Ordonez, and Robin Ventura was what I grew up with. I’ve become more jaded over the years…

Favorite Mets Player

Mike Piazza, and it’s not close. Everyone agrees he’s the best hitting catcher of all time, but he was an incredibly underrated defender that got shafted because of the era he played in. He had a bad arm, and that’s all anyone ever focused on back then. But a catcher’s arm is much less important than his framing, and Baseball Prospectus’s retro framing stats show that he was +60 runs above average for his career. He gave some back with the arm, but for his career he was actually a well above-average defender, despite a reputation as a bad one. This is the greatest catcher of all time. Not the greatest hitting catcher. The greatest catcher. Not getting into the Hall on the first ballot was an absolute joke.

Favorite Moment in Met History

2000 NLCS Game 5. I remember listening to “Who Let the Mets Out” on repeat lol.

Message to Mets Fans

“Try not to cry”? That’s been my motto. The way they handled the trade deadline (specifically Lucas Duda and Jay Bruce) was terrible, the Bruce deal this off-season was bad, the way they’ve handled their pitchers has been bad. Seriously, what were they thinking with Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz last year? I really want to be optimistic, but it’s tough. There is *some* reason for it. I like the Todd Frazier deal. I like that they are trying to fix the training staff. I think the A-Gon deal is an okay low-risk move. But as long as the Wilpons are in charge, I have a hard time seeing this organization ever really turning a corner. I have them projected for 84 wins this year, which is solid and could put them in contention for the Second Wild Card, but that’s assuming relatively good health. A team in a market like NYC needs to be better, even if they have to tear it all down first.

Rafael Montero – Forever a Met

It seemed like finally . . . FINALLY . . . Rafael Montero was about to pitch himself off the Mets roster.  This was a long day coming for Mets fans who watched him go 6-16 with a 5.38 ERA, 1.705 WHIP, and a 5.2 BB/9 over parts of four years with the Mets.  It was a frustrating experience to watch him continuously go out and pitch and seemingly be afraid to throw a strike.

What is even more maddening about his was he was once more highly regarded than Jacob deGrom.  Remember, if Montero was healthy in 2014, it was possible deGrom would have been moved to the bullpen.  That would have largely negated deGrom’s chances of winning the Rookie of the Year, and who knows what the long term ramifications would have been for the Mets organization.

That 2014 injury was an oblique injury.  In the ensuing seasons, we have heard him complain of shoulder issues.  The result was always the same.  He complained, and the Mets would find nothing except “regular inflammation” associated with pitching.  Montero would eventually go out, and he’d pitch.  Except he wouldn’t pitch like the top prospect the Mets believed him to be.  Rather, he looked skittish and afraid to throw a strike.

Now that we have the news Montero has a complete tear of his UCL which will likely require season ending Tommy John surgery.  We at least have to contemplate if Montero’s issues were really injury and not a talent or mental issue.

Look, the Mets record on handling injuries is disgustingly poor.  Time and again, we have seen pressure injured players to play, and we have seen them make mistake after mistake after mistake while learning nothing.  Just look at last year.  The Mets believed Matt Harvey would not be at full strength until May.  The team originally wanted to have Zack Wheeler start the year in Extended Spring Training.  However, when there were other injuries, the team opted to push these two to pitch instead of looking to grab a Scott Feldman off the scrap head and offer him a Major League job.

No, the Mets gambled on the core of their team, and they wound up losing both pitchers to stress reactions.  The most disturbing discovery was the muscles in Harvey’s pitching shoulder had actually atrophied.  That might not have been the case had the team let Harvey get to full strength.

Overall, the Mets have continued to mishandle the injury issues with their pitchers.  They don’t require Noah Syndergaard to get an MRI before a start.  They challenge Steven Matz to pitch through what was described as a massive bone spur in his pitching elbow.  Through all of it, the team wound up with further injured pitchers who provided diminishing returns.

Maybe that was the case all along with Montero.  Maybe not.  What we do know is he’s going to stick around long enough for the Mets to discover if it was how they handled his injuries rather than how they handled his development.