Steven Matz
Steven Matz was once in this position. On the mound at Citi Field getting his first MLB hit and win. Except, those days are gone now.
Instead Matz was squaring off against the Mets. He was trying to keep Tylor Megill winless. He gave it his best shot, but he fell short.
Matz wasn’t successful for three reasons. First and foremost, Megill was really good. For the second straight start, he pitched six innings. For the second straight start, he had his best career start.
This start was far more impressive than his last. It’s not just because of the two hits and one walk while striking out five. It was because of the strength of the Toronto Blue Jays lineup.
Keep in mind, after Bo Bichette stole second in the first, no other Blue Jay would get into scoring position against Megill. Of course, there was some clutch defense.
.@mconforto8 can FLY. ? pic.twitter.com/gDOgANQ6x1
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 24, 2021
Matz also had a strong start against his hometown team. Ironically, the only problem with his start was his start. Mets fans are all too familiar with that.
Past that, there wasn’t any offense from either side. That wasn’t until Alonso again homered in the eighth. This one was an impressive shot to the second deck.
PETE GOES UPPER TANK. ? pic.twitter.com/SiJml7lJko
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 24, 2021
This 3-0 lead stood because the Mets bullpen was strong. Seth Lugo and Trevor May each pitched a scoreless inning. Edwin Diaz, who blew three consecutive saves, would not blow this one.
Diaz was hit hard, but they were at em balls. These meant instead of extra base hits Mets cruised to victory hete and look to continue winning.
Game Notes: Jeff McNeil was held out of the lineup due to muscle weakness. The Mets acquired Rich Hill in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays.
The New York Mets had an opportunity to effectively end the Washington Nationals season. Instead, they lost three of four:
1. The Mets have been bad on the road. They’re actually 94 season loss pace (.421 winning percentage) on the road. That needs to change.
2. David Peterson took another step back, but as is par for the course, he’ll stay in the rotation due to injuries.
3. Joey Lucchesi had another strong start, but now, he’s down with elbow inflammation. With this stretch of games and the Mets pitching depth, this could be a devastating injury.
4. The whole bench mob thing has been fun, but the Mets showed how much they need their top guys back. Jeff McNeil coming back now couldn’t have come at a better time.
5. For as obsessed as the Washington Nationals social media team is with Francisco Lindor, he certainly shut them up with a huge game.
6. Luis Guillorme may not be hitting the ball, but he’s finding a way on base. It’ll be interesting to see what that means going forward with McNeil returning and Jonathan Villar slumping.
7. Guess Kyle Schwarber got his revenge for the 2015 NLDS.
8. You can criticize Luis Rojas here and there, but bringing Edwin Diaz into a scoreless game in the ninth isn’t one of those times. It doesn’t matter who he’s relieving.
9. Take it for the little it’s worth, but Pete Alonso is a step behind where he was last year when everyone thought he had a disappointing season.
10. Sean Reid-Foley finally had a bad game. The key now is for it to be an isolated incident.
11. The other part of the Steven Matz trade, Yennsy Diaz looked very impressive. It’ll be interesting to see if he gets more of a look.
12. It doesn’t matter how good Reid-Foley and Diaz are looking, with the Mets starters dropping like flies, the Mets really needed Matz this year. Yes, that’s even with his hitting the IL himself.
13. If all the doctors say he’s good to go, and Jacob deGrom feels good, then let him pitch. We’ll all still be nervous, but that’s not a good reason to skip a start.
14. After Bob Brenly mocked Marcus Stroman‘s du-rag, not only didn’t the Arizona Diamondbacks opt to not discipline him, but they then went on to lose 17 straight.
15. Hopefully, Steve Cohen seeking out to talk with Stroman is just laying the ground stages for an extension. Stroman has been great, and he’s built for New York.
16. While the weekend was lost, something good came out of it when Cohen stated his willingness to blow past the luxury tax. That’s a very nice change of pace.
17. If this now classifies as a bad start for Taijuan Walker, he’s an even better signing than we all thought.
18. The Mets two main issues in this series were bullpen and offense. The bullpen will get rest soon, and offensive reinforcements are on the way. The Mets will be fine.
19. The Mets may regret not mercy killing the Nationals when they have starting pitching available. Seeing how stubborn they are, they moved closer to not selling.
20. The Mets have a four game set against the Atlanta Braves, and they lead them by five games in the division. They can’t afford a repeat of what happened in Washington.
The New York Mets went to Tampa Bay flying high, and now, their winning streak is over, and they over wounded . . . literally. It was about as bad a weekend as they’ve had all season:
1. For all the talk of depth, it is very difficult to overcome the loss of Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, and Brandon Nimmo. Those are arguably your three best hitters.
2. The Mets “Bench Mob” has done their job, but you do wonder how long they can hold on as the regulars are injured and don’t appear set to get back to their healthy forms soon.
3. In terms of injuries, Marcus Stroman hasn’t been the same since his hamstring issues.
4. With Joey Lucchesi struggling in his current role, the Mets have to question what exactly he is. Is he a starter which gives you maybe four innings? Is he a long reliever? Seriously, what is he?
5. You really do have to question why Lucchesi is constantly allowed to fail when the Mets could just call-up Jordan Yamamoto. Seriously, he can’t be any worse.
6. Again, the Mets trading Steven Matz has come back to bite them. They simply didn’t have the rotation depth to just part with a legitimate starter.
7. David Peterson had a great start just when he needed to have a great start. That said, he needs to get through the bottom third of that Rays lineup unscathed.
8. This isn’t the postseason. You simply cannot have relievers warming up all the time. Teams need to navigate a 162 game schedule, and that is made all the more complicated by last year’s shortened season.
9. Not every loss is Luis Rojas‘ fault, and that loss was certainly not on Rojas. The Mets ran into Tyler Glasnow, they didn’t hit with runners in scoring position, and then their bullpen didn’t perform up to standards.
10. Just like Peterson had to get through the bottom of that lineup, Trevor May has to get out Manuel Margot in that spot. Margot is terrible against right-handed pitching, and he is terrible with two outs and runners in scoring position.
11. With Jacob deGrom going down, the Mets are in danger of running through their bullpen depth by the end of May.
12. At some point, James McCann is going to have to do something. His offense hasn’t come along, and even worse, his framing numbers have been terrible. Maybe, this is his year of adjustment, or maybe, he needs more rest than he’s getting. Whatever it is, with all the Mets injuries, the team needs him to figure it out now.
13. While he’s played a flashy third base, Jonathan Villar has been predictably poor over there. So far, he has a -2 DRS and a -1 OAA. It’s hard to see how he keeps playing everyday when J.D. Davis is ready to return.
14. Who knows how long he can keep it up, but Patrick Mazeika is becoming the fell good story of the season. When he finally gets his first hit, it’s a homer.
15. Fair or not, the Mets need more from Pete Alonso, Dominic Smith, and Francisco Lindor. They’re good enough to carry this offense with the other injuries.
16. Alonso has hit a lot of special homers in his young career, but homering in his hometown had to mean a little bit more to him. Hopefully, that homer sparks a hot streak at the plate which this team so desperately needs.
17. It’s insane to think Jose Peraza has been this good so far. Right now, the Mets have no other option than to just see how long he rides this wave.
18. The Mets are fortunate the NL East can’t get out of their own way right now. They get swept by the Rays, and they still stay in first place.
19. For all the criticism over Lindor and the ratcoon joke, Joe Girardi outright refused to answer questions about his issues with Jean Segura. While some may want to think that’s the better way of handling it, it’s hard to see how that helps brings the team together and fire up the fanbase like the ratcoon joke did.
20. Injured or not, the Mets begin an important stretch with series on the road against the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins. Fortunately, they’re going to put their best foot forward with Taijuan Walker on the mound.
Game Recaps
Mets Lost Due to Glasnow and Clutch Rays Hitting
The New York Mets traveled to St. Louis for a four game set with the Cardinals. How they got there was strange even for Mets standards:
1. Fly Chili Davis out to St. Louis. Fire him after scoring five runs (and losing). The same offensive ineptitude continues.
2. Being fair, it’s going to take more than a series to fix Davis impact. Regardless, the Mets handling of his firing was garbage.
3. At least Francisco Lindor snapped his 0-for-26 streak. His only longer streak was 2018 when he had his best ever offensive season.
4. Even with his struggles, Lindor has walked more than he’s struck out.
5. Speaking of walks, Michael Conforto walked six times in this series. It’s another indication just how much he’s locked in at the plate.
6. Taijuan Walker was completely locked in with the best non Jacob deGrom start of the year.
7. Walker again appears to be the steal of the offseason.
8. It’s way too soon to panic about deGrom. He knows his body, and he opted to be precautious. If he says he’s ready to go again soon, we can trust him.
9. Carlos Carrasco is a bigger issue. The team may not want to call it a setback, but it was.
10. Carrasco is emblematic of a larger issue. The Mets didn’t build sufficient starting pitching depth, and right now, they don’t have a fifth starter. It’s another reason why when with Sean Reid-Foley‘s early season success, the Steven Matz trade made little sense.
11. For some bizarre reason, the Mets have a lot more trust and faith in Joey Lucchesi than Jordan Yamamoto. That’s even with Yamamoto performing better against the Cardinals than Lucchesi.
12. Marcus Stroman is a warrior. He was willing to take the ball on short rest with a hamstring injury, and he performed well in a snakebitten start.
13. It seemed all Kevin Pillar needed to get going was to get some playing time. He’s really stepped up in Brandon Nimmo‘s absence.
14. With Trevor May and Aaron Loup putting their poor first appearances behind them, the Mets bullpen has been unstoppable, and that’s before Seth Lugo returns from injury.
15. Tomas Nido is having a great season. In limited duty, he has hit and framed well. If he keeps this up, he may soon put pressure on James McCann to get some more playing time.
16. In addition to his hitting again, Jeff McNeil has certainly looked very good at second. It’s early but that 3 DRS is a great mark.
17. It’s incredible to think Albert Pujols was released. On that note, and to a lesser extent, the Mets face a similar dilemma with Robinson Cano next year.
18. It’s way too soon to seriously suggest Luis Rojas is on the hot seat. The Mets are fine, and they’ll soon start putting distances between themselves and the rest of the NL East.
19. The state of umpiring is at its worst. We saw it when they had no idea as to the rules about use of an interpreter. By the way, just allow a player to use an interpreter.
20. Not sure how they’re going to handle the vaccinated/non-vaccinated and other issues, but it will be great to see large crowds at games again.
Game Recaps
Mets Front Office Hurts Mets Chances Of Winning
After the Mets signed Jonathan Villar to a free agent deal, the Mets were forced to make a move with the 40 man roster. They opted to designate Brad Brach for assignment.
Brach grew up a Mets fan. In fact, he loved the Mets so much he went to Game 3 of the World Series as a fan despite being a member of the Baltimore Orioles at the time. Brach would say seeing David Wright homering in that game was one of his favorite moments.
"When David Wright hit that home run…it was probably one of the best baseball moments I've had"
Brad Brach is a huge Mets fan and was at Game 3 of the 2015 World Series pic.twitter.com/utq57MBFfS
— SNY (@SNYtv) August 9, 2019
Speaking of Wright, he was also a huge Mets fan growing up. Like Brach, he’s also not a part of the organization. While Wright was a part of the front office with the Wilpons, he’s not right now as his contract with the team expired.
As if that’s not bad enough, it appears his number 5 was given to Albert Almora. You’d have to assume this was a mistake, and yet, there it is. Not only is his role gone but apparently so is his number. On the former, the door could be open for Wright to have a role with the team in 2021.
The same can not be said for Wright’s former teammate Steven Matz. The Long Island native grew up a Mets fan. What was once a fairy tale with his grandfather literally jumping for joy ended with him being traded for the Toronto Blue Jays.
It could be worse. Rick Porcello grew up a Mets fan, and when he hit free agency for the first time, he actually took less money to fulfill his childhood dream to pitch for the Mets. What ensued was a career worst season.
Now, he’s a free agent, and at the moment, it seems like no one has any interest in him. That puts him in the same situation as Brach.
Two lifelong Mets fans who dreamed of pitching for the Mets only for it to all go wrong. Now, they’re looking for a new place to play because the place they wanted to play more than anywhere doesn’t want them.
All told, that just sums up just how bad of an offseason for a player to be a Mets fan. If you grew up a Mets fan, there just doesn’t seem to be a spot for you with the Mets in 2021 or beyond.
After needlessly trading Steven Matz to the Toronto Blue Jays an missing out on Trevor Bauer, the Mets are left looking for a depth starting pitcher. Ideally, they want a pitcher who can both allow them to have David Peterson start the year in Triple-A and push Joey Lucchesi when Noah Syndergaard is ready to return to the rotation.
There are still a few options available. There is James Paxton who is coming back from injury and seems eternally injury prone. There is also Taijuan Walker who has had poor velocity and spin on his pitches. The Mets are also talking with Jake Arrieta who has not been the same since leaving the Chicago Cubs.
Seeing the lengths to which the Mets are going to find that one extra starter, you do wonder how long it will take before they consider bringing back Rick Porcello. While it may not be a popular decision, it would be a decision that would make a lot of sense for the Mets.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way – Porcello was bad in 2020. In 12 starts, Porcello was 1-7 with a 5.64 ERA and a 1.508 WHIP. He had a career worst 75 ERA+, and he allowed a 11.3 hits per nine. By nearly every measure, this was the worst season of Porcello’s career, and for many, this happening with Porcello being 31 was an indication he was effectively done being a Major League caliber starting pitcher.
Before addressing that, we should consider his August 5 start. In that game, Porcello earned his one and only win as a member of the Mets. Over seven innings, he would allow one earned on five hits while walking none and striking out four. Aside from his winning that game, there was something else unique and important about that game. In that game, the Mets had Luis Guillorme and Andres Gimenez up the middle, and they were flashing the leather.
That game was an important reminder Porcello is a sinkerball pitcher who pitches to contact. Really, he wasn’t a different pitcher in that game as he was in most of the season. The real difference was the defense behind him.
Again, the Mets defense was terrible in most of 2020. In fact, their -22 DRS was the fifth worst in the majors. That’s one of the reasons why Mets pitchers had a .316 BABIP which was the fourth worst in the majors. All told, the Mets defense was horrible, and it severely impacted not just their pitching, but it really derailed their season. It’s at this point we should revisit Porcello’s 2020 season.
Despite the poor results, Porcello had a 3.33 FIP which is indicative of him pitching SIGNIFICANTLY better than his final 2020 results indicated. Over at Baseball Savant, Porcello posted very good exit velocity numbers and was middle of the pack in terms of hard hit rate. Despite that, he yielded an absurdly high .373 BABIP, which was not just the worst of his career by a preposterous margin, but it was also well above his .308 career mark.
Keep in mind, Porcello generated the weakest contact he ever has in his career, and he did that in what was a Mets schedule facing a number of very good offensive teams. He also had the best HR/9 and HR/FB rate of his career. All told, there was absolutely no reason why Porcello should have had a poor year. He induced weak contact, and he was keeping the ball in the ballpark.
Well, no reason except for the atrocious Mets defense. Keep in mind most of the batted balls against him went to the left side of the Mets infield. As we know, that defense has been significantly improved with the addition of Francisco Lindor‘s Gold Glove caliber defense at shortstop, and it will be further improve by having literally anyone other than J.D. Davis at third base.
Suddenly, not matter who is on the mound, those soft balls hit on the left side of the infield will be the sure outs they should have been. Also, those 50/50 balls will suddenly turn in the Mets favor. Maybe, just maybe, they will start getting to some of those balls few teams could ever turn into outs. Put another way, this is now a Mets team built to allow Porcello to be a successful starter.
Keeping in mind Porcello grew up a Mets fan and would be driven for redemption, a reunion could make a lot of sense. This is a Mets team built for him defensively, and this is a rotation in need of just one more starter to sure it up. All told, the Mets should now be looking towards Porcello instead of considering the likes of Arrieta.
The New York Mets had one opening in their bullpen, and they were ideally looking for a left-handed reliever. When their pursuit of Brad Hand failed, the Mets moved towards more of a LOOGY in Aaron Loup.
The good is Loup is good against left-handed hitters. For his career, Loup has limited them to a .232/.301/.319 batting line. That was partially fueled by an outstanding 2020 where Loup limited them to .212/.278/.303.
Really, 2020 was an outstanding season for Loup. In 24 appearances, he was 3-2 with a 2.52 ERA, 0.840 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9, and a 7.9 K/9. In many ways, including ERA+, it was the best year of Loup’s career.
When you have a 33 year old starter having a career year, you do have to question the ability to repeat that year. That goes double when it happened in a shortened season. When looking at the numbers, it appears very dubious Loup can be as good in 2021 as he was in 2020.
First and foremost, his .219 BABIP is likely due for a significant regression. That goes double when you consider he has a .304 career mark, and he’s leaving the Tampa Bay Rays, who are the best at aligning defenses.
There’s also his Baseball Savant data. He pitched to contact with very low velocity and spin. Looking at it, you may question just how he got away with it all year. The answer is deception.
With the addition of left-handed reliever Aaron Loup, the Mets 40-man roster is now at 39. pic.twitter.com/W5Ka9oMoiW
— Michael Mayer (@mikemayer22) January 27, 2021
Now, deception like that will always play. However, it usually plays one way. That’s the way it’s proved out in MOST of Loup’s career.
While he’s kept left-handed hitters at bay, right-handed hitters have teed off on him to the tune of a .264/.332/.424 batting line. That was completely different in 2020 with Loup getting the better of right-handed hitters.
In fact, Loup dominated them and was better against them than lefties. Right-handed batters only mustered a .192/.246/.423 batting line off of him.
This was a complete outlier. Over the Sox years previous to 2020, right-handed batters OPS against Loup ranged from .721 to .925. If Loup returns to those levels, and given his BABIP, he very well might, that’s problematic.
Remember, the days of the LOOGY are gone. All relievers must pitch to at least three batters. There are some exceptions like retiring the last batter of an inning. That said, most often Loup will be called upon to face at least three batters.
For Loup to be a useful and effective reliever, he needs to be able to repeat his 2020. That’s highly debatable. You are also left to wonder if Steven Matz could’ve better fit this role before the trade. On that note, Joey Lucchesi, who is now a starter, or another free agent reliever could’ve better fit this role.
There’s also the matter of why do you even need a LOOGY. Again, the rules are set to make a LOOGY a thing of the past. You do have to wonder if Trevor Rosenthal, a pitcher with good splits against left-handed hitters, would’ve been a better investment.
On that note, we should take into account, Loup was a backup option, and it’s just a one year deal. Maybe he repeats his 2020 breakout, and maybe he regresses to career norms. For a one year deal, it’s worth a shot even if there were better ways to address this spot in the bullpen.
So, in the end, this wasn’t a great move by the Mets. By the same token, it’d be a stretch to call it a bad one. The Mets probably should’ve done better here, but if Loup is good again, then the Mets did extremely well.
One of the things the New York Mets said they were prioritizing depth. That included starting pitching depth. When the Mets traded Steven Matz to the Toronto Blue Jays, they undid some of that.
Yes, we all know Matz had a maddening Mets career. While many expected a breakout in 2020 following a very good second half in 2019, it didn’t materialize. Honestly, we’ll never quite know how much of that was related to the truly bizarre nature of that season.
Regardless, Matz was needed depth. He also has shown himself to be better than the Mets other SP options.
As noted, Joey Lucchesi is really a two pitch pitcher who may belong in the bullpen. Also, David Peterson had extremely suspect peripherals indicating he needs more development time before he can truly be counted on as a fifth starter.
This shouldn’t be read to mean Matz was absolutely reliable or a sure thing. We know that’s not true. However, that’s double true for Lucchesi and Peterson. In these instances, there’s strength in numbers. It’s better to look for 1-2 of three to emerge than need two questionable pieces to pitch well.
That also moves pitchers like Franklyn Kilome, Corey Oswalt, and Jerad Eickhoff up the depth chart and much closer to pitching games for the Mets. The Mets didn’t want them starting games for the Mets in 2021, and now, they’re closer to doing so.
Obviously, the Mets could sign someone to ameliorate this. The problem on that front is it’s difficult to imagine getting a better pitcher with more upside for less than Matz’s $5.2 million. This is also contingent on the Mets actually getting that pitcher or pitchers.
If this was a move to clear payroll for a Trevor Bauer, you should question why Matz’s contract NEEDED to be moved. You also have to question if Bauer is really worth losing at least one of Michael Conforto, Francisco Lindor, Marcus Stroman, or Noah Syndergaard.
If this was about depth, it makes less sense as the Mets acquired what are really three right-handed relief prospects. Drawing your attention back to the summer of 2017, identifying right-handed relief prospects really isn’t Sandy Alderson’s strong suit.
Love or hate Matz, he was real depth. His work with Phil Regan could’ve paid off, and he could’ve been good. He might’ve emerged as a left-handed reliever in the bullpen.
Instead, the Mets opted to eschew starting pitching depth, put more reliance on unproven pitchers, and rely on Alderson to do what he does worst (trading for RHP relief prospects). Maybe this works out, but looking at the complete picture, this trade was a mistake.