Starling Marte

20/20 Hindsight: Mets Shaky In April

The New York Mets finished April with a 15-12 record three games behind the Atlanta Braves for first place in the National League East. Even for the Mets, there was a lot to digest:

1.  David Cone made it clear Max Scherzer wasn’t cheating, and Scherzer is owed an apology from Major League Baseball. The Mets do as well for the extra toll it took on their rotation.

2.  Jacob deGrom‘s continued injuries are sad, and we should all want the best for him. However, no one should be using that as justification for the Mets letting him go to Texas when Justin Verlander has yet to throw a pitch for the Mets.

3.  David Peterson pitched himself out of the rotation, and it’s not clear where the Mets go from here with him. He’s in Triple-A where he belongs for the time being. In the long term, the Mets need to figure out if he’s salvageable as a starter, needs to be their Trevor Williams, or perhaps their next Seth Lugo.

4.  David Robertson has more than taken over for Edwin Díaz. The issue is the rest of the bullpen continues to fluctuate between injured, ineffective, and lights out. Really, game-to-game, the Mets have no consistency down there other than Robertson.

5.  The youth movement has begun with Brett Baty, and we see Francisco Álvarez has been forcing the issue (surprisingly with his defense). At some point, the Mets are going to have to just give the DH job to Mark Vientos because he has been annihilating the baseball.

6.  Buck Showalter seems content to stick with his veterans, and if that continues in the long run, it is going to be a problem. Given how young players were the key to his success in Baltimore, it is flat out crazy to see how he hasn’t involved from the instincts which doomed him with the New York Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Texas Rangers.

7.  Pete Alonso has been nearly everything you could ask from him to start this season. In fact, he’s even back to playing good defense at first base.

8.  Brandon Nimmo has responded to signing that massive contract by arguably being the best player in baseball to start the season. This will be the first season he is an All-Star, and we should seem him get some MVP consideration should he stay healthy.

9.  It’s been an uneasy start for Francisco Lindor, but he has been phenomenal defensively. Just remember with him, May is typically the month he breaks out in a season, so we should be in for a treat.

10. The way Daniel Vogelbach has started the season he is going to give the Mets reason to follow Daniel Murphy, who is off to a hot start with the Long Island Ducks. Better yet, we may see Vientos here sooner rather than later. Really, at some point, Vogelbach has to hit for some power.

11. Whatever the Mets thinking was on Tommy Pham, it was wrong. Moreover, it was wrong to build outfield depth with players 34 and older (aside from Nimmo). That goes double when you consider the Mets have zero Major League ready outfield depth in Syracuse.

12. Jeff McNeil surprisingly got off to a very slow start. However, he has been really strong the past two weeks, and he appears poised to have another very good season for the Mets.

13. McNeil needs to be more of a table setter. The Mets going with Starling Marte batting second just isn’t working. He’s making weak contact, and he’s just not getting on base enough. McNeil isn’t a five hitter. Again, Showalter needs to stop with the deference to veterans and start looking to win games.

14. Give Eduardo Escobar all the credit in the world. He lost his job, and he responded by being an amazing teammate and mentor. While his production may not be what the Mets wanted it to be when they signed him, the signing has paid off tenfold with his leadership and clubhouse presence.

15. Increasingly, Mark Canha looks done, at least as an everyday player. There needs to be a rotation with him and Luis Guillorme playing until the Mets figure out what they want to do with Ronny Mauricio. On Mauricio, so long as Showalter is loathe to play the young players, you simply cannot call him up.

16. There is an ace somewhere inside Kodai Senga. We saw it in Japan, and we have seen glimpses of it here. However, if he is going to continue to walk the ballpark, he is going to be a borderline MLB starter. That is a huge problem for the Mets with much of their success being tied into how good or bad he performs.

17. Every year, Drew Smith seems to be performing worse than what his actual numbers are. Part of that is his walk rate is too high.

18. Tomás Nido‘s defensive metrics are surprisingly poor. Part of that may be the difficulties in catching Senga. If not, the Mets are in trouble when their defensive specialist behind the plate isn’t performing.

19. The biggest takeaway from April is the Mets appear to be a postseason team with part of that being because it is an expanded postseason format. Keep in mind, while their record now may not be awe inspiring, they are still on a 90 win pace.

20. It needs to be repeated over and over again. The Mets need to go with their younger and more productive players. If Showalter is going to stand in the way of that, the Mets need to find someone who won’t. It’s just that simple.

page top

Mets Phenoms Ready To Overtake Underperforming Mets Vets

The New York Mets top prospects all began the season with Triple-A Syracuse with the expectation that sooner or later they were going to take over major roles on this Mets team. Put another way, if the Mets veterans did not play well, the organization would have the excuse they needed to push that veteran aside for a potential future All-Star.

That already began with Brett Baty taking over for Eduardo Escobar. Escobar struggled to start the season at the plate and in the field. The Mets felt like they had little other choice than to finally give the job to Baty.

Now, Baty has not set the world on fire. In six games, he is only 5-for-21 at the plate with no extra base hits. However, he has posted a surprisingly strong 2 OAA at second.

As a result, so long as he keeps fielding, and the Mets keep winning games, he can work through his struggles at the plate. After all, Escobar was struggling at the plate an in the field.

Right now, Baty is joined on the roster by Francisco Álvarez. Alvarez is only up because Omar Narváez was injured. Buck Showalter made Álvarez the back-up to Tomás Nido, but as previously detailed, Álvarez has begun pressing the issue by actually outperforming Nido as a pitch framer. There’s also his immense power.

Speaking of immense power, Mark Vientos has been destroying baseballs down in Triple-A. So far this season, he has a .706 SLG and 191 wRC+. Perhaps even more important than the power numbers is his cutting down his strike out rate by nearly five points. As impressive as this all is, it’s all the more so when you consider he is historically a very slow starter.

While Vientos is uncharacteristically hot early, Daniel Vogelbach has not hit for any power to start the season. Through the first 17 games, he has a .375 OPS with just three extra base hits. To be fair, he has been getting on base with a .412 OBP, which is still valuable even if he can’t run.

Still, a Mets team largely devoid of power outside Pete Alonso needs more power in the lineup, and that would preferably come from their DH. Keep in mind, Vogelbach also comes with the problem of being a platoon bat requiring the Mets to carry extra players to pick up his slack. Between the power, ability to actually fill in defensively at the corner infield spots, and his ability to play everyday, Vientos offers far more for the Mets.

Finally, there’s Ronny Mauricio. Like Vientos, he is off to a hot start at the plate with 1.083 OPS. That is coming off the heels of being the LIDOM MVP and a great spring training. It does seem the Mets are preparing for his getting called up this year by moving him to second base this past week.

With respect to that, this is one of the reasons Jeff McNeil is so valuable to the team. While a very good defensive second baseman, he is also a good fielding left fielder. To wit, it seems like McNeil is destined to play left field for the Mets while Mauricio takes over second.

It would seem Mauricio would most likely get the call-up in the event of an injury. On that point, we have already had some Starling Marte scares this season. Aside from Brandon Nimmo, the Mets outfielders are all over the age of 34.

You could argue he could force his way in there over a Mark Canha, who still isn’t hitting for power despite an offseason regiment designed to do so. However, the Mets value his leadership and ability to get on base. Moreover, Mauricio really can’t push aside a veteran like Canha while his walk rate continues to be poor. This year, it’s up to 4.7% which is still problematic.

That said, Mauricio is still hitting and trying to force his way to the majors. We saw Baty has already done that this season. Vientos is on the verge of doing that as well. In the end, the Mets could have a major overhaul this season by going to their younger and better performing players.

 

page top

Mets Defense Great To Start 2023 Season

Bottom first, bases loaded, two outs. Kodai Senga is on the verge of getting out of a bases loaded no out jam when Jon Berti hits a tailing line drive down the line. Instead of emptying the bases, Starling Marte races over and makes the catch to end the inning.

That right there is why the New York Mets have been off to a good start to the 2023 season. In a year which is supposed to be defined by more hits as a result of the shift ban, the Mets have been playing stellar defense. That is especially true up the middle with Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil.

While we know there is far too small of a sample size to adjudge defense, we see Lindor and McNeil have been making all of the plays. In terms of McNeil, per Baseball Savant, he has an 86% success rate on fielding plays. That is a 3% success added rate on plays.

That was no more true than the play he made in Miami. After a ground ball got through Pete Alonso, McNeil responded by making the sliding catch and nailing the speedy Berti at home. That play was named the inaugural Play of the Week from MLB for the 2023 season.

This should come as no surprise for McNeil. Last season, McNeil posted a 7 OAA as a second baseman. That rated him as the second best defensive second baseman in the National League.

As good as McNeil has been, Lindor has been even better. So far this season, he has an astounding 93% success rate on plays. That gives him an impressive 8% success rate added on plays.

Prior to this season, Lindor has been a proponent of banning the shift. Part of the reason was to permit him to be the shortstop he can be. Last season, he told Sports Illustrated, “Let me do me. Let me make the crazy play. Let me be like, ‘O.K., he’s going to pull the ball. I can’t be on that side of the base.’ So as the pitch goes, I run on the other side of the base—pow!—and make the play.”

He’s already put together a number of highlights this season. There was the leaping grab to rob Jorge Soler of extra bases. There was the double play started when he went up the middle and flipped the ball to McNeil. The play everyone seems to be talking about to start the season was his going into the hole to rob Bryan De La Cruz of an RBI single.

Lindor has always been a great defender. He has already won two Gold Gloves and a Platinum Glove. Since his first full season in 2016, he leads all MLB shortstops with a 117 OAA. However, so far this season, it just seems Lindor is playing at another level. In fact, we even see it on the plays he doesn’t make.

Omar Narváez threw the ball away on a Christian Yelich stolen base attempt. Lindor deked Yelich into staying at second base instead of going to third. The play saved Narváez from an error, and to this point in the season, the Mets still have not committed an error.

The defense from Lindor has been noticeable to start the season. Showalter said after the April 1 game, “He has taken his defensive game to another level. He is moving his feet really well. He is anticipating things.”

Overall, the Mets might’ve entered the season with the best up the middle infield defense in the majors. Seeing the way McNeil and Lindor have started the season, they are taking their defense to another level. We are also seeing it rub off on their teammates as they are making strong defensive plays.

As we saw in 1999, you can have a special season led by great defense. Lindor and McNeil seemed poised to make this a year just like that.

EDITOR’S NOTE: This post was first published on MMO.

page top

20/20 Hindsight: Mets Filet Marlins

The New York Mets played their opening series of the season, and they took 3/4 games. All-in-all, not a bad start to the season:

1.  The Mets defense was exceptional to start the season. Jeff McNeil and Francisco Lindor appear on their way to having Gold Glove caliber years, and Starling Marte might’ve made the most important play of all.

2.  Kodai Senga‘s ghost splitter was all; the more impressive in game action recording all eight strikeouts on the pitch. It’s also a good thing it really took him just one inning to fully acclimate.

3.  It took Lindor three games last season before he started hitting, and he would have a great year. Nothing to be concerned about his slow start to the season.

4.  Brandon Nimmo is back to walking a lot, which means his OBP should be through the roof this season.

5.  Justin Verlander and Jose Quintana are out, but it appears David Peterson and Tylor Megill are up to the task much like they were all of last season.

6.  Eduardo Escobar has really struggled to start the year. With the start Brett Baty is off to in Triple-A, we are going to hear the calls for him sooner rather than later.

7.  If Baty is not called up within the next week, the Mets are going to forfeit the chance to get an extra first round pick and international bonus pool money. This seems like a dubious decision to say the least.

8.  Mark Canha‘s and Tommy Pham‘s bat looked very slow to start the season, but they turned it on the last two games. At least with Sandy Alcantara and Jesus Luzardo, you still have to wonder if velocity will be an issue for Canha, but for now, he seems like he will be productive.

9.  The only Mets reliever to allow a run is John Curtiss, who was on the bubble to even make the team. For now, it seems like the Mets bullpen will be fine without Edwin Díaz.

10. Way too much was made by some people over Max Scherzer allowing three runs. He was completely dominant over the first five innings, and he had one bad inning. He will be fine and pitch like an ace again this season.

11. It seems like something that only happens to the Mets, but somehow poor defenders like Garrett Cooper and Jorge Soler looked like Keith Hernandez and Roberto Clemente in the field this past series.

12. Jeff McNeil hit a lot of balls hard right at someone. Not what you expected to see with the elimination of the shift.

13. The games did move much faster, but there is still going to be some issues to be ironed out. For example, McNeil getting assessed a strike because of Pete Alonso at first base. After the game, MLB admitted a strike should not have been assessed against McNeil.

14. Any Mets fans rejoicing in Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt struggling is an outright fool. First, they did nothing to the Mets. Second, it meant you enjoyed the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals offense going off. Nothing says I’m a Mets fan more than rooting for the Phillies and Cardinals.

15. We knew the bases being closer together meant not only more stolen bases but more opportunities to take an extra base. We didn’t know that meant Daniel Vogelbach going first to third and scoring on shallow sacrifice flies.

16. Jazz Chisholm Jr.was not good at all in center for the Miami Marlins. That is going to be an issue for that team all season.

17. Omar Narváez. has looked PHENOMENAL in all aspects of the game so far. If he is going to be this good, the Mets are a different level team than originally anticipated.

18. Dennis Santana might’ve been a find for the Mets.

19. Alonso was safe at first base.

20. This was a good start for the Mets. They took three out of four, and their best players haven’t quite gotten going just yet. Hopefully, this is a sign we are in for a special 2023.

page top

Ghost Fork Was Spooky

Entering the 2023 season, the biggest question mark in the rotation was Kodai Senga. We knew he was good based upon what he did in Japan, but how good he was going to be is ultimately what will determine how good of a rotation and by extension a team the New York Mets will be.

It may not seem this way, but the Mets have had more Japanese players in their history than any other team. Of course, as we saw with Kazuo Matsui, the Mets haven’t always had the best luck with Japanese imports. Of course, part of that was the Mets creating unrealistic expectations and flat out ignoring advice on how to help those players adapt to Major League Baseball.

Jeff Wilpon is gone, and the Mets are run completely differently under Steve Cohen. Perhaps, that is part of the reason why we did not hear any of the old anxiety related to the Mets previous failures with Japanese players. Seeing Senga on the mound for his first game, we may never hear it again.

Things did not start well for him. He allowed a hit to Luis Arraez, threw a wild pitch, and allowed an RBI double to Jorge Soler. That’s as disastrous a start to your career as you can get. One run was in without an out. Fortunately, the Mets did score two for him in the top of the first, so the lead had not evaporated.

That seemed like a technicality as he then walked Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Avisail Garcia to load the bases. That brought up Yuli Gurriel. Bases loaded and no outs. It was then we first saw Senga release that ghost split as a true weapon.

Senga then came back and struck out Jesus Sanchez. Again, it was that ghost fork. That Miami Marlins rally was fading as quickly as that ghost fork. Senga would need some help from his defense as Starling Marte made a great catch in right to end the inning.

The Marlins missed their only chance as they would only collect one more hit and walk against Senga in his 5 1/3 innings of work. If he had not needed to throw 36 pitches in the first innings, he might’ve gone deeper. The fact he was able to go deeper into the game is a testament to how he just flat out embarrassed the Marlins hitters who literally had no chance against that ghost fork.

Overall, Senga struck out eight, and the Mets went on to win 5-1. More than that, Senga showed us how great he could be. While it is far too early to talk about these things, perhaps he could be the ace of this staff. Yes, he and that ghost fork were that good on Sunday. We will see just how good it is the rest of the year.

page top

Mets May Need To RIGHT Ship

We need to start with a couple of caveats here. First and foremost, it’s only two games. Moreover, those two games were started by reigning Cy Young Sandy Alcantara and Jesús Luzardo.

That all said, the New York Mets right-handed hitting options outside of Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Starling Marte were going to be a question mark at best. Problem at worse.

So far, it has looked like a problem.

Mark Canha’s bat has looked as slow as it did in September and October of last season. Tommy Pham is hitless in four relatively non-competitive at-bats.

We can and should say many times over it’s early. However, we’re seeing problems of last year resurface for both players. That creates a dilemma for the Mets.

Down in Triple-A, they have Brett Baty who looked ready to go. Yes, he’s left-handed, but he would force at least one of Canha or Eduardo Escobar to the bench.

This could keep Canha and Escobar fresher. Mainly, it shifts the positions and responsibilities of veterans. Instead of everyday players, they become utility or semi-regular players.

Moving Canha to the bench could have Jeff McNeil in left with Luis Guillorme at second. The Mets could also opt for Guillorme at third with Escobar on the bench.

If no one is hitting, then Guillorme’s glove needs to be on the field everyday. In reality, it always needed to be there.

Same goes for Baty. He always should have been on the roster. He’s a better defender now than Escobar, and he has more potential to be a better hitter than Canha or Escobar.

Again, this seems to be a rush to judgment, but that’s partially because the Mets have a rapidly approaching deadline. Per Baseball America, if Baty is called up with two weeks, the Mets may be eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive.

Due to the timelines, if Baty is called up soon, the Mets are eligible for a first round pick and international bonus pool money if he wins Rookie of the Year. Even if he were not to win it, the Mets could receive future compensation if he finishes in the top three in MVP voting until he’s arbitration eligible.

If Baty is up, there will still be plenty of at-bats to go around to Canha and Escobar. That’s partially the result of Daniel Vogelbach being a platoon DH.

However, at some point, the Mets need to stop worrying about finding them at-bats and just give playing time to worthy players who can help them win.

At the moment, Canha and Pham look overmatched at the plate and aren’t great defenders. Escobar isn’t a good defender and again appears to be a platoon bat. There’s a deadline on Baty fast approaching.

The Mets created a problem by assembling this roster. The right-handed bats were very questionable and look all the more so through two games.

Given Baty and PPI, they can’t just wait for Canha, Escobar, and Pham to right the ship. Mets need to act quickly and right the ship.

page top

Mets Bullpen Starts Off Season Just Fine

Brandon Nimmo was the player of the game for the New York Mets. He knocked in the first run with a sacrifice fly. Later in the game, he hit a two RBI double which put the Mets up for good.

Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil both had a two hit game. Things were going so well for the Mets we even saw Daniel Vogelbach acting like a speed demon around the bases.

Max Scherzer was great for five, but he stumbled in the sixth giving up the three run lead. Still, he got the win because of the aforementioned Nimmo RBI double in the seventh.

There was also some terrific defense from Francisco Lindor. The hitting and defense was expected. The bullpen stepping up for Scherzer and the Mets was a pleasant surprise.

After Edwin Díaz went down for the season, how the Mets were going to finish games was very much in question. At least for the season opener, it was seamless.

Drew Smith was first up. After allowing a lead-off double to Jorge Soler. Smith didn’t allow another hit and would strike out two.

Brooks Raley made his Mets debut in the eighth. He’d pitch a 1-2-3 inning.

That led to David Robertson for the ninth. Robertson was signed to be the eighth inning set-up reliever, but with Díaz out for the year, he’s now the closer.

The good news is Robertson has been a very good closer in his career. More than that, he’s thrived in New York. In many ways, that makes him the perfect stopgap.

Well, he was perfect in his first save opportunity with the Mets. After striking out the first two, he got Soler to fly out to end the game.

The Mets won on Opening Day. That’s what they do. Sooner or later, we will find out if shutting down the opponent is what this bullpen does. At least for this game, the bullpen looked great, and if that’s the case, the Mets will be great.

GAME NOTES: Justin Verlander was put on the IL before the game. Bryce Montes de Oca underwent Tommy John surgery. Jacob deGrom made his first start with the Texas Rangers. He allowed more extra base hits against the Philadelphia Phillies than he had ever allowed in a game.

page top

Bold 2023 Mets Predictions

For the New York Mets 60th season, I made 60 bold predictions heading into the season. The concept is to really go for it instead of being meek and saying Francisco Lindor will play the most games at short, or Pete Alonso will lead the team in homers. It was to be daring. Some hit, and some did not. In any event, here are 61 for this year as this is the 61st season:

1.  The New York Mets will win the 2023 World Series.

2.  The Mets will be the third best team in the division during the regular season.

3.  David Peterson will have more starts this season than any other Mets starter.

4.  Kodai Senga will be an All-Star.

5.  Jeff McNeil will make a run at .400 and will finish with a batting average north of .370.

6.  By the middle of June, Brett Baty will be called up, and he will overtake the Mets third base job for the next decade.

7.  The Mets will have more blown saves by the All-Star Break than Edwin Díaz had all of last season.

8.  The Mets are going to find a way to get Alexis Díaz this season. When they get him, Steve Cohen will speak about just how important family is and how that was a motivating factor in getting Díaz.

9. Part of the Díaz deal will be Joey Votto going to the Mets. The lifelong Red will be excited because he is getting a chance to win, and the Reds will be excited because it clears a massive chunk of payroll. Votto will take over as the Mets DH.

10.  Ronny Mauricio is going to be moved this year as the big prospect to get a big piece or two at the trade deadline.

11. The Mets are not going to come to terms on an extension with Pete Alonso, but they will surprise us with one for Baty or Francisco Álvarez.

12. We will see Álvarez get called up multiple times, but he is not going to stick on the roster until September.

13. The Mets will not need a closer at the trade deadline, but they will need an outfielder. They will still get at least one reliever at the deadline.

14. Mark Canha will regress and lose his starting job forcing Jeff McNeil to left field.

15. Jacob deGrom will have a better season than Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. All three pitchers will finish in the top five in Cy Young voting.

16. The Mets will announce a date where they are going to retire Carlos Beltrán‘s number 15.

17. The pitch clock is going to be a hit with the fans, but we are going to see multiple issues early in the season where games are swung on its implementation leading to player and that fanbase’s frustration.

18. We are going to see Luis Guillorme make more starts on the infield than anyone not named Alonso or Francisco Lindor.

19. The Mets are going to have a tough first half with many wondering if the team was too old or if this is a reincarnation of the 1992 Worst Team Money Could Buy. The Mets will shut everyone up with a great second half.

20. The rule changes will rejuvenate Keith Hernandez, who will come to enjoy the modern game more than any particular fan.

21. Brandon Nimmo will be a first time All-Star. He will be joined there by Lindor, McNeil, Senga, and Verlander.

22. Pete Alonso returns to the Home Run Derby, and he wins it again.

23. Tommy Pham and Tim Locastro are not going to last the full season on the Mets roster as the team learns they need to radically overhaul their bench.

24. Eduardo Escobar loses his starting third base job, but he will still serve as an important semi-regular on the roster.

25. Lindor will be the only Mets player to win a Gold Glove this season. Guillorme and McNeil will be finalists.

26. Starling Marte will play fewer than 100 games, but he will be healthy for the postseason and will be one of the best Mets in the postseason.

27. Dylan Bundy will be added to the Major League roster at some point during the season, and he will stick in the bullpen at some point.

28. McNeil and Lindor will each finish in the top five in MVP voting with McNeil winning the award.

29. J.D. Davis will get out to a good start leading for Mets fans to further complain about the Darin Ruf trade, but Davis will cool off considerably thereafter with no one saying much of anything past May.

30. This will be Eric Chávez‘s last season as a coach with the Mets as he will be the hot candidate for managerial jobs in the offseason.

31. Meet Joey Meneses, who will be the newest Mets killer.

32. Scherzer is going to have a better season than Verlander.

33. Verlander will have zero issues adjusting to New York.

34. Lindor is going to play in every single Mets game this season.

35. The Mets will aggressively pursue David Bednar and Bryan Reynolds, but the stingy Pittsburgh Pirates owner will not make a deal with Steve Cohen on principle based on this spending the last offseason.

36. When he returns from the IL, Mets fans are going to fall in love with Bryce Montes de Oca, and we will see him get at least a down ballot Rookie of the Year vote.

37. Shohei Ohtani will not be traded this year no matter how hard the Mets try to get him. Part of the reason will be the Los Angeles Angels contending for the last Wild Card spot.

38. Noah Syndergaard will actually start against the Mets when the Los Angeles Dodgers visit Citi Field in April. He will get a loud ovation as he takes the mound.

39. Tylor Megill will make more starts for the Mets this season than Carlos Carrasco.

40. Alonso will appear in more games at DH than any other right-handed batter as Buck Showalter tries to keep him fresher than he did last season.

41. While there will be calls for a closer-by-committee approach, Showalter is going to go with David Robertson as the closer to begin the season, and he will carry the role at least through the All-Star Break.

42. Buck Showalter will not be the NL Manager of the Year, and he will not finish in the top five in voting.

43. There will be more of a time share at catcher between Omar Narváez and Tomás Nido than anyone will expect.

44. Jose Butto will be up-and-down a few times this season being designated at that prospect who comes up one week for a spot start and another week to hang out in the bullpen. He is going to struggle, and there will be more people calling him a non-prospect.

45. While it will be an exhausting story line, Verlander will win a World Series start, and he will be dominant.

46. Despite his World Baseball Classic success, no team will sign Matt Harvey this season with his pending suspension being part of the reason.

47. Brooks Raley will have a similar transition from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Mets that Aaron Loup once did.

48. Pride Night is scheduled for June 16. The Mets will force Raley to wear whatever gear is mandated that day by Major League Baseball.

49. Lindor is and will continue to be the best shortstop in baseball. Yes, that means he will have a better season than Trea Turner.

50. We will see Mark Vientos at some point this season but only for a limited time as the Mets are going to struggle to find spots for him even with Vientos having a monster year with Syracuse.

51. This will be the last season the 1962 Mets have the record for most losses in a season. The bottom feeders of baseball are just that bad this season.

52. Nimmo wins his first Silver Slugger this season.

53. The Mets will have a day honoring the New York Rangers after the Rangers win the Stanley Cup with Mets fan Adam Fox throwing out the first pitch.

54. While Adam Ottavino will have another good year, Drew Smith will be the Mets best set-up reliever this season.

55. Kevin Parada will play in Double-A this season, and we will start to hear some wonder if it is him or Álvarez as the Mets catcher of the future.

56. Nimmo is going to steal 20+ bases this season.

57. Escobar will continue his streak of 20+ home run seasons.

58. One development from the pitch clock is Citi Field will begin to have all of their concession stands handle pre-order and pick up as fans are not going to have as many delays and will not want to miss game action.

59. There will be some celebration at Citi Field this season for the 40th anniversary of the 1973 pennant winning team. It will likely be tied into Old Timers’ Day.

60. The Mets will have multiple events throughout the year giving rewards to Mets fans for wearing their caps out in public as a continued attempt to get them more attention than the Yankees.

61. This will be the first time New York holds a Stanley Cup and World Series title since 1928.

page top

MLB Owners Didn’t Care When Wilpons Didn’t Spend

Truth be told, Steve Cohen has been spending at a level no one anticipated. We should have anticipated there would be backlash to that with Major League Baseball trying to establish a system to discourage spending to build a team.

To some degree, you have to give the other owners credit. They were tight-lipped last offseason when the New York Mets free agent spree was highlighted by Max Scherzer and Starling Marte in addition to the Mets trading for Chris Bassitt.

They bit their tongues as the Mets signed Justin Verlander, José Quintana, David Robertson, and Koudai Senga in addition to re-signing Edwin Díaz and Brandon Nimmo. It’s fair to assume they weren’t happy, but they didn’t react publicly. Then, Carlos Correa happened.

Cohen and the Mets initially made a too late push for Correa, and Correa signed with the San Francisco Giants. To be fair, the Giants offered more than the Mets were willing to offer. If you were a skeptic, you were left believing Scott Boras was using Cohen and the Mets to extract every last dollar from the Giants.

After that, Correa “failed” his physical leading the Giants to try to renegotiate the deal. Boras being Boras treated this as an opportunity to re-open the bidding for Correa with the Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers re-entering the picture. In the end, it would be the Mets who signed Correa to a 12 year $315 million deal.

This is what caused the rest of baseball to snap. In an article from The Athletic by Evan Drellich, the other owners, who did not go on record, spoke about this disdain about how Cohen has conducted his business this offseason. There were a few choice quotes speaking about how Cohen was not stopped by control measures put in place for him to not outspend what other owners and markets were willing to do.

Note, the choice of the word willing isn’t of able. That choice was highlighted by an unnamed source who said, “There’s no collusion. But . . . there was a reason nobody for years ever went past $300 million. You still have partners, and there’s a system.” Another choice quote was, “We’ve got somebody with three times the median payroll and has no care whatsoever for the long-term of these contracts, in terms of the risk associated with any of them.”

Essentially, owners don’t like or feeling comfortable going to the lengths Cohen has been willing to go. That’s not the same as can’t go. They don’t want to go there, and as Drellich astutely points out, owners are not happy Cohen is raising the price of player contracts.

This is much in the same way the Wilpons restricted player salaries. They had a team in the largest market in the world, and they couldn’t spend on players. Having a very large market out on a player suppressed player salaries, which is why other owners had zero issues with the Wilpons.

They didn’t care about the psyche of Mets fans or what not having a large market non-competitive for all but two years in a decade was doing to the growth of the sport. All they cared about is players were cheaper. They left money and growth at the table to make their bottom line better. Now, they’re faced with the choice of spending a little more to be competitive, or as we see with the Tampa Bay Rays, find real ways to be competitive other than artificially suppressing player salaries.

Make no mistake here, the other 29 owners didn’t give a damn about their fans, especially Mets fans. It was all about their profit margin, which is what Cohen is directly impacting despite their efforts to stand in the way. In the end, not one fan should care what they think because they certainly didn’t care about Mets fans when the Wilpons were actively destroying baseball.

 

 

page top

Revisiting 2022 Bold Mets Predictions

Before the season, there were 60 bold predictions made heading into the New York Mets 60th season. Here is a look back at how those bold predictions worked out:

1. The New York Mets will win the 2022 World Series.

While they won 101 games, they collapsed late in the season, and they would lose in three games to the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card round.

2.  Howie Rose will retire after the season. The Mets have already tabbed their replacement in Jake Eisenberg, and Rose could not pass up the opportunity to go out calling a Mets World Series victory.

Fortunately, Howie has not announced his retirement.

3.  Rose will return in some limited fashion to SNY and will be a fill-in replacement in 2023 and beyond.

See above.

4. Francisco Lindor will be the NL MVP. Like Mike Piazza and Carlos Beltran, he’s going to have a huge second year. Unlike them, he wont’ be denied the award.

Lindor did have a huge second year, but a broken finger cost him any chance of winning the award.

5.  Dominic Smith will force his way into the lineup. Yes, he’s battling with J.D. Davis and Robinson Cano for the DH spot, but like he did in 2019 and 2020, he’s going to force his way into the everyday lineup and not relinquish his spot.

As it turned out, Smith was not given a real shot to be the DH. Not only did he not force his way into the lineup, but he was demoted to Triple-A, and he was not called up even with the expanded rosters. He was non-tendered after the season.

6.  Edwin Diaz will be an All-Star. Diaz has been an every other year pitcher in his career, and following that pattern, this is his year.

Diaz was an All-Star.

7.  The Mets All-Stars this season will be Diaz, Lindor, and Max Scherzer.

Diaz was the only All-Star from this group. The other Mets All-Stars were Pete Alonso, Starling Marte, and Jeff McNeil.

8.  Jacob deGrom will receive some Cy Young votes. Whenever he comes back, he’s going to be deGrom, and he’s going to be so great, he’s going to appear on ballots.

It started that way, but deGrom wasn’t quite as sharp when he returned. He did not receive any votes.

9.  Jeff McNeil will finish the season as the left fielder. That is an injury prone outfield, and McNeil will eventually be forced to move out there.

As it turned out, he finished the season as the right fielder, but he moved back to second when Marte returned from injury for the postseason.

10.  Robinson Cano will reclaim a starting job. We forget that when Cano played he was actually good in the field. If the outfield is as injury prone as we think, we will eventually play almost every day at second or DH.

Wow, this one was way off the mark and couldn’t have been more wrong.

11.  Chris Bassitt will have a slow first month frustrating fans, but he will have a terrific stretch starting in the middle of May as he adjusts to working with the new catchers and Jeremy Hefner.

It was the opposite for Bassitt. He was strong all season until the very end.

12.  Starling Marte is going to have a fast start and quickly become a fan favorite. When he’s snubbed at All-Star time, fans are going to be livid.

Marte was a fan favortite, and Mets fans would not let him be snubbed with their voting him in as a starter.

13. Mark Vientos will have a thrilling MLB debut. Vientos’ bat is arguably Major League ready, and he’s going to get some run during some point of the season as a third baseman or DH. He may not relinquish a spot.

For whatever which reason, the Mets were reluctant all year to give him a shot. After the Darin Ruf trade disaster, he finally got a shot in a pennant race and was less then thrilling.

14. Brett Baty will be moved at the trade deadline. With the emergence of Vientos and the ground ball problems, the Mets feel comfortable moving him for that big piece at the trade deadline.

Baty was not moved, and he would be called up to be the team’s everyday third baseman until his own season ending injury.

15. The Mets everyday catcher is not on the Opening Day roster. At some point, the Mets will swing a deal or call up Francisco Alvarez to take over as the everyday catcher.

With his ankle injury, Álvarez was only called up to DH late in the season. Tomas Nido did supplant James McCann as the starter.

16. The Philadelphia Phillies will be the Mets main contenders. Last year, the Atlanta Braves were dead in the water until the Mets were too injured. The Mets won’t do that again this year, and the Phillies pitching and hitters will give people more of a run than we think.

Well, the Phillies won the pennant, so this was only true to that extent. However, the Mets missed their every chance to bury the Braves and would eventually collapse.

17. The Atlanta Braves will not challenge the Mets at all for the division. They’ll really miss Freddie Freeman, the bullpen will falter, and they will not get Ronald Acuna Jr. back in time.

This was very true in June. It was not true at all after that.

18. Tylor Megill will last the entire season in the rotation. Now that he’s here, it is going to be difficult to remove him from the rotation. If need be, the Mets will go to a six man rotation to keep him in the majors.

Megill had a good run as a starter until he was injured. He returned late in the season and moved to the bullpen. He is likely in the mix for the rotation next season.

19. Carlos Carrasco will rebound and will pitch like he did with Cleveland, but he will not make more than 20 starts.

Shockingly, not only did Carrasco rebound, but he also made 29 starts.

20. Trevor Williams will become a huge part of the Mets bullpen as he becomes more of a fastball/slider pitcher.

Williams was a vital part of this team all season.

21. Steve Cohen will purchase SNY during the course as the 2022 season as the Wilpons are scared off by the increasing rights deals with streamers.

This did not happen.

22. The Mets will have multiple Gold Glove winners with Lindor and Marte.

The Mets did not have any winners with only Nido being a finalist. In terms of the voting, there were multiple Mets who were snubbed despite excellent defensive numbers.

23. Hefner will get interviews for managerial positions with other teams after this season.

His name has not surfaced as a managerial candidate.

24. So will Eric Chavez.

Neither has him.

25. The Mets will not have any player at DH for more than 40 games this season.

This was very close to being true. J.D. Davis was a DH in 41 games before the team mercifully got rid of him. After the trade deadline, Daniel Vogelbach was the DH in 46 games.

26. J.D. Davis will make multiple relief appearances for the Mets this season.

He did not.

27. The Joely Rodriguez trade will work out as well as the Alex Torres trade did for the Mets.

While Rodriguez had his moments, he had an 87 ERA+ making his largely true.

28. None of the Mets outfielders will play over 135 games this season.

To our collective surprise, Brandon Nimmo played a career high 151 games. Mark Canha would play 140.

29. Fans will fall in love with Nick Plummer and get more frustrated by Khalil Lee.

For a one week stretch, when Plummer hit that ninth inning homer against the Phillies, Mets fans did fall in love with him before he stopped hitting as a part time DH. No Mets fan paid any attention to Lee.

30. Mark Canha will play more games than any other Mets outfielder, but he will have the lowest WAR out of all the regular outfielders.

Canha played fewer games than Nimmo, but he did have the lowest WAR among outfielders.

31. There will be an issue over Marcus Stroman not receiving a video tribute when the Chicago Cubs visit the Mets in September.

There wasn’t any issues with Stroman during the season, and he did not pitch against the Mets this year.

32. Old Timers’ Day will have one team wearing the 1986 Mets jerseys and the other team wearing the black jerseys.

That did not happen.

33. Carlos Beltran will not return to Citi Field for Old Timers’ Day. We also will not see Carlos Delgado.

Sadly, this was true.

34. The loudest ovation on Old Timers’ Day will go to Piazza. The second loudest will go to Nolan Ryan, who will be a surprise attendee.

It was difficult to ascertain who got the loudest ovation which was a great thing.

35. The defensive highlight of the season will come from Luis Guillorme.

This award probably goes to McNeil for robbing the Oneil Cruz homer, but Guillorme had more than his fair share of highlights.

36. Pete Alonso will take a step back defensively, and he will see more time at DH than initially expected.

Alonso took a big step back defensively, but the Mets hesitated to give him more time at DH even to give him rest late in the season.

37. A week or two into the season, we will hear some rumblings about Michael Conforto looking to return to the Mets. He won’t return, and likely, he will not sign with anyone until after the Major League draft.

There were some rumblings about Conforto, but he wasn’t tied with the Mets. He also did not sign with any team.

38. Some team will crack the frequency on the pitch calling device, and we will eventually know it is them because they will be the surprise team of the 2022 season. It won’t be the Mets.

We heard nothing on that front, but we should give this one time.

39. Mets fans will actually enjoy the Sunday Night Baseball broadcasts this season.

Nope, we didn’t, and it didn’t help that David Cone was saying Mets fans would complain about them not being GKR.

40. Showalter will be the 2022 NL Manager of the Year, and it might be unanimous.

Whether or not it was the right call, Showalter won, and it was close to being unanimous.

41. Seth Lugo will return to his dominant form, but he will only be a one inning reliever. The multiple inning role will be assumed by Williams.

This one was actually true.

42. The Tom Seaver statue will be perfect.

This one should’ve been true. However, Paul Lukas of Uniwatch found the flaw.

43. Drew Smith will take over the eighth inning and will be groomed as the next closer. He will not take over the eighth due to any fault of Trevor May who will have another good year.

Smith was well on his way until injury. May did not have a great year, but that was mostly due to injury. It should be noted he stepped up late in the season and in the postseason.

44. People will talk about how Scherzer isn’t what they thought he’d be and the contract was a mistake. Those people will be idiots.

With Scherzer dealing with an oblique injury and faltering against the Braves and Padres, this ultimately proved true.

45. The Mets are going to have a monster second half with them running away with the division.

The Mets did have a monster second half until they faltered against the weakest September schedule. Truth is they should have run away with the division.

46. With the Toronto Blue Jays winning the division, the Mets are going to make a push to get their unvaccinated players vaccinated to ensure their availability for the World Series.

The Blue Jays made the postseason. With them and the Mets losing in the Wild Card round, this was not remotely an issue.

47. Jeurys Familia will receive a tribute video when he returns to Citi Field, and there will be a mix of cheers and boos with probably more boos.

It was a chilly reception.

48. The Wild Card round will be a complete dud and fans will be clamoring for the return of the winner-take-all Wild Card Game.

So far, fans seems to be unhappy with the postseason changes.

49. We will see David Peterson bounced around between starting and relieving due to the injury issues with the Mets starting staff. He will struggle for it.

Peterson did quite well even if he had some struggles, and he stayed in the rotation for the most part.

50. The Mets will not need to add bullpen pieces at the deadline because we will see pitchers like Colin Holderman and Thomas Szapucki emerge as quality relief options at the Major League level.

Holderman emerged as a quality relief option, but he would be traded for Vogelbach. Szapucki was moved to the bullpen with Syracuse with an eye towards using him in that role. He too would be traded for a platoon DH option (Ruf). The Mets only added Mychael Givens at the deadline while espousing they liked what they had.

51. James McCann will have very similar production to what he had in 2021, and in short order, he will find himself in a catching rotation with Tomas Nido.

This proved true with Nido finally taking over full duties at the very end of the season.

52. No New York baseball player will sign an in-season extension. That includes deGrom and Nimmo, and it also includes Aaron Judge.

True, but Diaz was signed before the start of free agency.

53. There will be no negative articles written about Showalter this season even during a time in the season where the Mets slump (as even the best teams in baseball always do).

True even as his team collapsed.

54. Taijuan Walker will make the fewest starts of anyone in the Mets pitching rotation.

Walker tied for the second most starts. deGrom would actually make the fewest starts.

55. The Mets will have a no-hitter this season, but it will not be from a starting pitcher going all nine innings.

On April 29, the Co-No happened.

56. This will be the last Major League season with nine inning double headers. We will see the return of seven inning double headers in 2023.

This likely will not happen.

57. The Mets will announce their next Hall of Fame class, and it will include Al Leiter and Johan Santana.

There was no such announcment, but there was the announcement of Willie Mays and Keith Hernandez having their numbers retired.

58. Mets fans will not care about the Apple TV game, but they will be absolutely livid about the game on Peacock. Of course, MLB will not care one iota about the blowback.

MLB did not care about the lack of quality with the games, and honestly, while there were complaints, Mets fans didn’t complain nearly as much about the streaming games as you’d anticipate.

59. Showalter is going to get Guillorme in a lot of games for late inning defense.

It actually proved to be more than just that. Showalter got Guillorme into the lineup due to his glove.

60. To reiterate, the Mets will win the World Series, and they will not have to wait another three decades for their next World Series.

To reiterate, I’m an idiot, and I’ll probably make the same prediction next year.

page top