Michael Conforto

Nationals Are a Better Team

Tonight, there were only two Mets who played well in a huge series against the Washington Nationals – Asdrubal Cabrera and Noah Syndergaard. It wasn’t enough. 

Cabrera homered off Nationals starter A.J. Cole in the fourth to narrow the gap to 2-1. Overall, Cabrera was 2-3 with the homer and a walk. Jay Bruce was the only other Met to get a hit off of Cole. 

In reality, the Mets did nothing against a young pitcher who has struggled in his limited major league appearances. In his five major league appearances, he was 0-1 with a 5.32 ERA and a 1.318 WHIP. At 24 years old, he’s still just a prospect who could conceivably break out at any time. However, he’s really seen as a mid to back of the rotation guy. This was just another case of the disappearing Mets offense. 

It is a shame too because it spoiled a very good Syndergaard start. Syndergaard’s final line was seven innings, three hits, two runs, two earned, one walk, and four strikeouts. Seeing that line, it begs the question – how did the Nationals score two runs with only four baserunners and no extra base hits. 

Simple, Syndergaard cannot hold base runners. 

In the first, Trea Turner led off the game with a single. He then proceeded to steal second AND third. No, Travis d’Arnaud wasn’t catching; it was Rene Rivera showing yet again the stolen base issue lies with the starting pitchers. Turner would then score on a Bryce Harper sacrifice fly. Daniel Murphy would also steal a base in the inning, but he would not score. 

In the fourth, Harper hit a one out double, and he stole third. That set up yet another sacrifice fly. This time it was Wilson Ramos. 

Just like that, the Nationals “manufactured” both of their runs. They got the guys on, got them over, and got them in. It’s something the Mets offense has struggled with all year. 

The Mets would have one chance to tie the game in the seventh. 

Marc Rzepczynski (your guess is as good as mine as to whether that is spelled correctly) relieved Cole, and he made quick work of Curtis Granderson and Kelly Johnson. Rzepczynski would then issue a free pass to Rivera, and he would plunk d’Arnaud. 

At that point, Terry Collins and Dusty Baker would go to their benches. Collins would tab Ty Kelly to pinch run for Rivera. Baker would bring in Koda Glover (definitely no relation to Danny or Donald) to pitch to Jose Reyes making sure Reyes was hitting from his much weaker side. Glover would blow a 98 MPH fastball past Reyes to end the inning. 

But, hey, Reyes did this to a ball earlier in the game:

The game was then out if reach in the ninth before the Mets would bat. Jerry Blevins started the inning to face the left-handed Murphy and Harper. A single and a double later, and Collins turned to Hansel Robles. Robles immediately gave up a two RBI single to Anthony Rendon making it a 4-1 game. 

What we all observed was the difference between the 2015 and 2016 Nationals. The Nationals have a manger that has a reputation in bringing out the best in his guys. They also gave a much better bullpen. During the stretch run last year, they had Jonathan Papelbon. This year it’s Mark Melancon. 

It’s a huge difference. It’s the difference between losing the division by seven games and having a 10.5 game division lead. Well, that and having Murphy. 

Game Notes: Even with the righty on the mound, James Loney would sit, and Wilmer Flores played first. Michael Conforto did not start, but he made a PH appearance in the ninth. Fernando Salas pitched another scoreless inning. 

Pennant Race: The Pirates lost 1-0 to the Brewers. The Marlins are lost 6-2 to the Indians. The Cardinals lost 3-2 to the Reds. 

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Welcome Back Michael Conforto

After a long and inexplicable exile, Michael Conforto is finally back with the Mets.  He was gone mostly because Terry Collins had to back up this threat “And those that don’t want to get after it, I’ll find some who do. Because in Las Vegas there is a whole clubhouse of guys that want to sit in this room.”  (nj.com) after an embarrassing 9-0 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks at home.

Since that time, here is how the outfielders who the Mets decided “really wanted to get after it” have performed between the time of Conforto’s August 12th demotion and his September 1st call-up:

Curtis Granderson

Granderson has been hitting .173/.274/.442 with 11 runs, two doubles, four homers, and seven RBI.  Keep in mind, most of that damage started a couple of days ago when Granderson came off the bench to hit two homers against the Marlins.  At least with Granderson, Collins followed through on this threat benching him against left-handed pitching.

Jay Bruce

Bruce has been the team’s main right fielder hitting .190/.277/.259 with four doubles, two homers, and two RBI.  Unfortunately, that isn’t too much different than the .183/.262/.290 batting line he has had while joining the Mets.  Naturally, since joining the Mets, he has had to deal with nagging leg injuries, which presumably have affected his production at the plate as well as his play in the outfield.

Alejandro De Aza

De Aza has had two great games since Conforto’s demotion.  On August 16th, he went 2-4 with two runs, two doubles, a walks, and an RBI in a 7-5 win over the Diamondbacks.  On August 25th, he went 2-4 with two runs, a homer, a walk, and five RBI in a 10-6 win over the Cardinals. In his other 17 games, De Aza has gone 5-42 with one extra base hit and five RBI.

Justin Ruggiano

Ruggiano came off the disabled list, played extremely well in five games, and he has found his way back onto the disabled list.  Ruggiano has now been transferred to the 60 day disabled list meaning he’s done for the season.  When he initially went on the 15 day disabled list, the Mets called up T.J. Rivera instead of Conforto.

Michael Conforto

Since his demotion, Conforto has played in 15 games hitting .493/.541/.821 with four doubles, six homers, and 13 RBI while playing both center and left field.  Against lefties, Conforto has been hitting .488/.553/.732 with a double, three homers, and 11 RBI in 41 AAA at bats this season.  He’s been thriving while the outfielder the Mets kept who Collins dubbed “really wanted to get after it” struggled, were injured, or both.

In his first game back, Conforto went 1-3 with a double and a HBP. In the eighth, he hit into a back breaking double play. With that double play, Collins may have his ammunition to bench Conforto again. 

It’s a shame too because Conforto can really hit when he is actually given a chance. It’s also a shame because the Mets have shown they’d rather send a group of outfielders hitting below the Mendoza Line rather than let Conforto go out there and hit. 

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Yelich Finally Beat The Mets

On a team that traditionally kills the Mets, Christian Yelich is the ultimate Mets killer. 

It started in the second inning when he robbed Jacob deGrom:

At the time, the Mets had Jose Urena on the ropes with two outs and the bases loaded. Between last night and tonight, the Mets have loaded the bases four times, and Kelly Johnson is the only one who has gotten a base hit. 

In the following half inning, Yelich struck again hitting an RBI single off deGrom scoring Ichiro Suzuki giving the Marlins a 1-0 lead. 

In this series, the Mets responded each time the Marlins took a lead, but not tonight. It would be the Marlins who struck next, and once again Yelich would be in the mix. 

In the top of the fifth, Yelich got the rally started with a two out single. He would come around to score on a Jeff Francouer double. Francouer would score off a Xavier Scruggs double. 

That would be it for deGrom. His final line was five innings, six hits, three runs, three earned, four walks, and six strikeouts. Considering he has struggled recently and the Mets skipping a start, it was hard to tell if he was rusty or if he’s just lost right now.  Whatever it is, the Mets need him, and he hasn’t been able to help. 

In the sixth, the Mets would narrow the gap with a Jay Bruce solo home to to make it 3-1. 

Yelich would once again be a factor. So would Terry Collins. 

Despite a well rested bullpen and newly acquired Fernando Salas available, Collins would push Josh Smoker to pitch a second inning. Smoker didn’t record an out in the seventh, and he gave up an opposite field home run to Yelich giving the Marlins a 6-1 lead. It was Yelich’s third opposite field home runs in as many days. 

Credit should be given to Keith Hernandez here. During the Yelich at bat, he noted how well Yelich goes the other way, and he noted Smoker should pitch Yelich inside. Smoker didn’t. 

Salas would then make his Mets debut pitching a scoreless inning. 

The Mets would build a rally in the eighth. Curtis Granderson and Johnson would lead off the inning with opposite field singles off Nick Wittgren. Bruce followed suit hitting an opposite field RBI single. 

Don Mattingly would bring in Kyle Barraclough. Wilmer Flores battled back from an 0-2 count to draw a walk loading the bases bringing up Michael Conforto. Barraclough threw him nothing but breaking pitches, and Conforto hit into the 1-2-3 double play. Despite going 2-4 with a double reaching on an error and making a nice play in the field, knowing Collins, Conforto won’t play in another game this year. 

Yoenis Cespedes, who didn’t start the game due to the slick field conditions, would pinch hit for James Loney. He struck out to end the inning and the rally. Again, the Mets couldn’t score a run with the bases loaded. 

To the Mets credit, they didn’t go down without a fight. Travis d’Arnaud led off the inning an infield single thanks in part to a lacksadasical Dee Gordon. Asdrubal Cabrera, who also sat due to field conditions, hit his first career pinch hit home run making it 6-4.  The Mets would get no closer. 

Fittingly, the last three batters would all fly out to left with Yelich getting all three put outs. On the night, Yelich was 3-4 with two runs, four RBI, one walk, a homer, and a sparkling defensive play in center. He was the lone Marlin who came to beat the Mets this series, and he finally accomplished his goal tonight. 

With the loss, the Mets missed an opportunity to gain some ground on the idle Cardinals, and yes, for the delusional fan, the idle Nationals. 

Game Notes: For some reason or other, Rene Rivera played first tonight even with Ty Kelly getting recalled with the expanded rosters. 

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Mets August 2016 Report Card

The Mets entered August 6.5 games back in the NL East race behind both the Nationals and the Marlins.  They also trailed the Marlins by 1.5 games for the last Wild Card spot.  The Mets have also fallen behind the Cardinals in the Wild Card race as well.

By going 15-14, August turned out to be just the second winning month the Mets have had this season.  They now trail the Nationals by nine games in the NL East.  After what has been a crazy month, the Mets still remain 1.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot.  Only now, the Mets trail the the Cardinals after having helped put the Marlins away having won the first three against them in a four game series.  Given the Mets weak September schedule, it should be an interesting finish to the season.

Bear in mind, these grades are on a curve. If a bench player gets an A and a position player gets a B, it doesn’t mean the bench player is having a better year. Rather, it means the bench player is performing better in his role.

Position Players

Travis d’Arnaud (C).  After the Jonathon Lucroy rumors died down, d’Arnaud starting hitting again.  However, he has cooled off to hit at a rate slightly better than his 2016 totals.  Part of the reason may be Collins playing Rivera over him with the Mets needing to throw a lot of young pitchers out there.

Kevin Plawecki (Inc.)  Plawecki spent the entire month down in AAA where he has started hitting again.  He should be among the first group of players called up today.  It’ll be interesting to see what, if any, impact he has over the final month of the season.

Rene Rivera (C).  Rivera came crashing back to Earth offensively.  However, his value has always been as a receiver, and he has done that job fairly well helping usher some of these young pitchers into the big leagues.

Lucas Duda (Inc). Duda is most likely gone for the season, and the debate will soon begin about whether he will be a Met in 2017.

James Loney (F).  He didn’t hit for average or power, nor did he get on base much during the entire month.  Worse yet, he has not been good in the field.  The next ball he stretches for will be his first.

Neil Walker (A+).  What has happened to Walker is nothing short of heart breaking.  He had completely turned his season around, and he appeared to be headed for a massive payday this offseason with him standing out as one of the better options in a weak free agent class.  Instead, Walker is going to have season ending back surgery to end his season.

David Wright (Inc.).  It’s clear he’s done for the season, but it is nice seeing him around Citi Field and looking better.

Asdrubal Cabrera (A+).  Since his return from the disabled list, Cabrera has been a blonde bombshell.  He moved into the second spot in the order, and he he has combine with Reyes to form a dynamic and powerful 1-2 duo at the top of the lineup.  The only concern is how much he is going to actually be able to play with that lingering knee issue.

Wilmer Flores (B+).  Flores has continued to rake putting up numbers at an unprecedented.  This month he hit seven homers.  He has benefited greatly by mostly facing left-handed pitchers, and now he’s hitting righties better. The Mets will need his versatility all the more as injuries mounted during the month.

Eric Campbell (Inc.) Campbell did not play in a game during the month, and the Mets are not likely to call him up again until rosters expand in September.

Matt Reynolds (D).  Reynolds didn’t hit well during his 10 games with the Mets this month.  Worse yet for him, he has been passed over on the team’s depth chart by Rivera.

Ty Kelly (A).  During his limited August playing time, Collins was able to maximize Kelly’s abilities by making him a short-lived platoon left fielder with Cespedes dealing with his quad injury.  In his nine August games, Kelly hit .381/.500/.524 with a double and a triple.

Michael Conforto (D).  After a stretch in which the Mets bottomed out, Conforto was sent down as he was a young player unable to handle sporadic playing time.  Since being sent down to AAA, Conforto has hit everything including lefties.  He should be called up today, and most likely, never play as Collins is his manager.

Yoenis Cespedes (A).  It was admirable that Cespedes played until he could play no longer (even if his golfing might’ve been part of the reason why).  Since his return, Cespedes is hitting home runs again.  He has had another incredible month, and he had a walkoff with a legendary bat flip to help the Mets beat the Marlins.

Curtis Granderson (D).  It hasn’t been fun seeing last year’s team MVP struggle the way he has this month.  He lost his job in right, moved to center, and now has become a part time player.  The hope is that with the time off, he rests up, and he returns to the Granderson of old.  Those hopes don’t seem that far fetched after he came off the bench the other night to hit two home runs.

Juan Lagares (Inc).  Lagares didn’t play in August due to the thumb surgery.  It remains questionable if he can return in September as he will most likely not be ready for rehab games until after the minor league affiliates have ended their seasons.

Alejandro De Aza (C-).  De Aza followed a great July with another poor August.  Mixed in there were a couple of terrific games that helped the Mets win a pivotal game against the Cardinals.  Right now, what he brings more than anything is the ability to play center field.

Kelly Johnson (A+).  Johnson continues to be the Mets top pinch hitter as well as a platoon option in the infield.  Over the past month, he has hit for more power including a surprising five homers.  His bases loaded double last night might’ve buried the Marlins.

Brandon Nimmo (Inc).  He only played two games before being sent down to AAA.  Given the fact that he’s one of the few healthy center fielders in the organization, he may see some real time when he gets called up with the expanded rosters.

Jose Reyes (A).  You could say we’re seeing the Reyes of old, but Reyes has never been this good in his career.  He has adapted extremely well to third base while playing a steady shortstop when the Mets have needed him to play over there when Cabrera has been injured or needing a day off.  The one caution is he still isn’t hitting right-handed pitching that well.  Still, his numbers were terrific.

T.J. Rivera (B).  After all this time, Rivera finally got his chance.  He made the most of it hitting .289 in 13 games while playing decently at second and third base.

Justin Ruggiano (Inc).  When he plays, he hits, but he is now on his second disabled list stint already with the Mets. With him being put on the 60 day disabled list, he’s now done for the season.   Seeing what we have seen with the team, there may be something in the water.

Jay Bruce (F).  Since coming to the Mets for Dilson Herrera, he has just been bad.  But hey, it’s not like the Mets need another second baseman, right?

Pitchers

Matt Harvey (Inc).  Harvey is done for the season after having had successful surgery to remove a rib.  For a player who has been criticized in the past for attending Yankee games while being gone for the season, Harvey has been a fixture in the Mets dugout during games.

Jacob deGrom (D).  deGrom had been pitching great until August rolled around.  In back-to-back big games against the Giants and the Cardinals, he couldn’t deliver pitching two of the worst games in his career.  Hopefully, the Mets skipping his last start will help get him back on track.

Noah Syndergaard (B). Syndergaard has had an uneven month, but after his last start, it appears he is dealing better with the bone spurs, and he is getting back to the pitcher who was dominant over the first half of the season.

Steven Matz (C).  Just as you thought he turned things around with his flirting with a no-hitter in his last start, he goes down with a shoulder injury.  At this time, it is unknown as to when or if he can return.

Bartolo Colon (A).  Colon stopped his good start-bad start streak in August, and he started pitching much better during the month of August at a time when the Mets needed him the most.

Logan Verrett (F).  Look, he shouldn’t have been tapped as the Mets fifth starter after Harvey went down, but with that said, he did everything he could to lose the job pitching to a 13.50 ERA in August.  He eventually lost the job to Niese of all people

Jeurys Familia (A).  That’s the Familia we all know and love.  He not only had a sub 1.00 ERA, but he also broke the single season Mets save record he shared with Armando Benitez.

Addison Reed (B+).  You knew he wasn’t going to keep up what he has been doing, but even with him coming back to Earth slightly, he has still be incredible.

Jim Henderson (F).  After being on the disabled list for so long with yet another shoulder injury, Henderson has made his way back to the majors.  Unfortunately, he’s not the same pitcher.  Collins owes him an apology.

Hansel Robles (F).  Robles showed how much he has been overworked this season by Collins this month.  Hopefully, with some rest, he should finally be able to rebound and contribute in September and beyond like he had done for most of the season.

Jerry Blevins (B+).  His 2.16 ERA was terrific, but his 1.560 WHIP gives some reason for pause.  Both righties and lefties are starting to hit him, and he has been allowing inherited runners to score.

Antonio Bastardo (Inc.)  Thankfully, he is gone, and it was worth it even if it meant the Mets had to take back Niese.

Rafael Montero (Inc.) He got an unexpected start due to injuries, and he fought his way through five scoreless innings.  Good for him.

Sean Gilmartin (Inc.)  Gilmartin has only made three appearances since being recalled, and he hasn’t pitched particularly well.  Whether it was the shoulder injury or teams figuring him out, he’s not the same guy he was last season.

Erik Goeddel (F).  There used to be two factions of the Mets fan base: those who thought Goeddel was a good major league pitcher, and those that didn’t.  Seemingly, everyone is now in the latter camp now.

Seth Lugo (A).  Lugo has been nothing short of a revelation this year.  Due to injuries, he has had to go from the bullpen to the rotation.  He has not only shown his stuff translates as a starter, but he also shown he could actually be more effective as a starter.  He has gotten his 2014 deGrom moment, and he has taken advantage of it.

Jon Niese (F).  Somehow, he was worse with the Mets than he was with the Pirates.  He has failed in the bullpen and the rotation.  Hopefully, for him, the reason is because of his knee injury that has required surgery.

Robert Gsellman (Inc.) It’s been a mixed bag for Gsellman.  In his one relief apperance and his one start, he has given the Mets a chance to win.   However, he’s a powder keg out there as it seems as if he is in trouble each and every inning.  To his credit, he has gotten out of most of the jams.  It’ll be interesting to see where he goes from here.

Gabriel Ynoa (Inc.) Ynao was surprisingly called up to pitch out of the bullpen.  In three rough appearances, the only thing you can fairly conclude is he isn’t comfortable yet pitching out of the bullpen.

Josh Edgin (D) Edgin has gone through the long Tommy John rehab process, but he’s not quite back yet.  His velocity isn’t quite there.  With that in mind, he has struggles getting major league batters out.

Josh Smoker (B) After a rough start to his major league career, he has gone out there and gotten better each and every time out.  He is getting his fastball in the upper 90s, and he is a strikeout machine.  He could be a real factor over the next month and in the postseason

Terry Collins (D)  He iced Conforto.  He continues to overwork the bullpen.  He makes baffling lineup decision after baffling lineup decision.  He is even worse with in-game management.  However, with the Mets on a stretch against some bad teams, and the Wild Card frontrunners not having run away with it, he may once again be in position to ride some good luck into the postseason.

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Left-Handed Pitchers Beware

One of the long forgotten storylines of the early part of the season was the Mets couldn’t hit left-handed pitching.  For their careers, Curtis Granderson and Lucas Duda have mostly struggled against them.  That effectively neutralizes two of the best bats in the lineup.  Terry Collins ices a third when he refuses to play Michael Conforto against lefties.

With the Mets injuries and Sandy Alderson remaking the roster on the fly, the Mets now destroy left-handed pitching.

It starts with new (and old) leadoff hitter Jose Reyes.  In his career, Reyes has always been a slightly better right-hand hitter than he was a left-hand hitter, but this year the splits are even more pronounced.  In 25 games against righties, he is hitting .254/.289/.408.  However, in the 17 games against lefties, he is destroying them hitting .342/.419/.605.  Each and every game, he sets the pace.

Usually playing across the diamond from Reyes is Wilmer Flores who suddenly turns into Babe Ruth when a lefty is on the mound.  Flores has played 44 games against lefties, and he is hitting an astounding .344/.392/.678 with three doubles, nine homers, and 22 RBI.  Flores OPS+ against lefties is 176.  To put how good that is in perspective, that 176 is better than Paul Goldschmidt‘s and Jose Altuve‘s.  Goldschmidt and Altuve currently led their respective leagues in those categories.

Rounding out the infield is Neil Walker who has been a completely different hitter against lefties this season.  Walker entered the year hitting .260/.317/.338 against lefties.  This year, he is hitting .327/.383/.612 against them.  He has more than doubled his homers against lefties this year.

In the outfield, with Juan Lagares going down with injury, the Mets eventually replaced him with Justin Ruggiano.  He has been the Mets center fielder when a left-handed pitcher starts a game.  In his seven games against lefties, Ruggiano has hit .400/.471/.867, and he had a monster home run against Jaime Garcia:

It’s not a fluke for him either.  In his eight year career, Ruggiano is hitting .276/.340/.530 against lefties.

When you add these bats to a lineup that already has Yoenis Cespedes, you have a team that mashes lefties.  You have a team that knocks Madison Bumgarner out after five innings.  You have an offense that can do anything no matter who is on the mound.  You have an offense you believe can go the postseason as the second Wild Card.

 

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Keep Michael Conforto’s AAA Production in Mind

Currently, the Mets outfielders are Jay Bruce, Yoenis Cespedes, Alejandro De Aza, Curtis Granderson, and Justin Ruggiano.  Not on this list is Michael Conforto as the Mets have no intention of calling him up until September 1st.

Conforto is absolutely raking in AAA.  In the 10 games since his demotion, Conforto is 22-40 with four doubles, four homers, eight RBI, and two walks.  That is a .550/.581/.950 batting line.  Offensive statistics in the Pacific Coast League are typically inflated, but they aren’t that inflated.

Better yet, over his two stints in the minors this year, Conforto is hitting .500/.559/.633 with a double, a homer, and seven RBI in 30 at bats.

No, the Mets have no interest in that production right now even with them playing in a crucial three game set against the Cardinals that will have a dramatic impact upon their chances of winning the Wild Card.  Instead, the Mets want to go with the following:

  • Bruce who is hitting .169/.263/.282 in 19 games as a Met
  • De Aza who is hitting .192/.287/.308 on the season and .133/.264/.311 in August
  • Granderson who is hitting .224/.312/.428 on the year and .186/.240/.347 since the All Star Break
  • Ruggiano who was released from the Rangers while he was in AAA and is a career .258/.322/.438 hitter

Overall, the only player who deserves to be in the lineup day-in and day-out is Cespedes.  After that, the Mets have to pick two other outfielders who are playing best to man center and right.  Looking at the Mets 40 man roster, it is hard to believe that Conforto isn’t one of those players right now.

Hopefully, the Mets will sweep the Cardinals and get terrific production from their center and right fielders.  If not, we will all be left asking why were the Mets willing to field their best possible team and best possible lineup in the most important series of the year.

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Ya Gotta Believe Again

On August 22, 1973, the Mets won their second game in a row to raise the Mets record to 57-67 leaving them 6.0 games out in the National League East behind the first place St. Louis Cardinals.

From that point forward, the Mets would be the hottest team in baseball going 25-12 carrying them to an unlikely division championship. The Mets rode the hot streak to beat the Big Red Machine 3-2 in a best of five NLCS, and they came within a win of disrupting the Oakland A’s dynasty.

The popular story was the Mets were spurred by Tug McGraw screaming “Ya Gotta Believe!” after a M.Donald Grant “pep talk” in July. However, the truth is that team just got healthy at the right time, and when the team was at 100%, they were among the best teams in baseball.

During that year, the team was hampered by injuries. Jerry Grote, John Milner, Bud Harrelson, and Cleon Jones all missed significant time. Rusty Staub player through injuries all year.  On top of that phenom Jon Matlack was having a down year a year removed from winning the Rookie of the Year Award.  He was joined by Jerry Koosman in having a surprising down year.  Willie Mays looked to be every bit of his 42 years of age.  Young fill-ins like Don Hahn just were not producing.  The Mets were forced to do anything they could do to improve the team like releasing dead weight like Jim Fregosi.  About all that went right that season for the Mets was Tom Seaver; that and the fact that no one ran away with the division allowing the Mets to enter the postseason with an 82-79 record.

Isn’t that what this Mets season has been.  With Matt Harvey, David Wright, Lucas Duda, Adrubal Cabrera, and Yoenis Cespedes, we have seen this Mets team be hampered time and again by injuries.  We have seen countless Mets play through injuries like Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz with their bone spurs.  We’ve seen replacements like Eric Campbell, Ty Kelly, and Matt Reynolds not play up to snuff.  Players like Travis d’Arnaud and Michael Conforto had surprising down years.  About the only thing that has gone right for the Mets this year is the fact that Jacob deGrom has continued to pitch like an ace, and the fact that no one has ran away with the second Wild Card spot.

Maybe, just maybe, this is 1973 all over again.  That 1973 team was much further back in both the standings and more teams to leapfrog in the standings.  All they needed to do was to get healthy and to get hot.  Right now, with Cespedes back and hitting home runs for the Mets again, this team is healthy, and they are on the verge of getting hot.  If that happens, the Mets can very well take that second Wild Card spot and get into the postseason.

As we saw in 1973 as well as last year, with great Mets pitching, the Mets can beat anyone in the postseason.  They can shock the world.  Anything is possible so long as they get hot and get into the postseason.

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The Mets Found Their Catcher after the Trade Deadline

With Travis d’Arnaud missing time with a shoulder injury and struggling at the plate all season, the Mets were all but forced to inquire about Jonathan Lucroy.

The Mets interest in Lucroy was understandable as the team needed another bat in the lineup with Lucas Duda and David Wright being gone for the season, Yoenis Cespedes being hobbled with a quad injury, and Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, and yes, d’Arnaud having down seasons.  The Mets needed another bat, and Lucroy seemed to be the answer with him hitting .299/.359/.482 with 17 doubles, three triples, 13 homers, and 50 RBI.  That was the type of production the Mets were hoping to add at the trade deadline.

For whatever reason, the Mets were not able to swing a trade for Lucroy at the trade deadline.  However, they were able to get Lucroy’s production.

Since the trade deadline passed, d’Arnaud is hitting .311/.354/.444 with two homers and three RBI.  It is exactly what the Mets were hoping to get from him after a season in which d’Arnaud hit .268/.340/.485 with 14 doubles, one triple, 12 homers, and 41 RBI in 67 games last year.  It seems that d’Arnaud has turned his season around.

It could be that his shoulder is feeling better.  It could be a mechanical adjustment he has made at the plate.  It could also be that he is able to just relax and go out there and hit now that the trade deadline has passed.  Whatever the case may be, the important thing from the Mets perspective is they seem to have d’Arnaud back.

Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Merized Online

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Is the Mets Window Closing?

Right now, the Mets are four games out of a Wild Card spot, and they are desperately hoping with Yoenis Cespedes and Asdrubal Cabrera coming off the disabled list this week that the team goes on a run that will bring them back into the postseason.  Whether or not that works, it is fair to ask if this is the Mets last chance to win the World Series.

The foundation of this team is its starting pitching.  Matt Harvey has gone from Opening Day starter to question mark with his season ending surgery to address his thoracic outlet syndrome.  There is no telling how effective he will be if he is able to come back.

Zack Wheeler was supposed to be back by the All Star Break.  Now, it appears that he will miss his second consecutive season.  While rehabbing from the surgery, Wheeler has had to have a second surgery to deal with forearm irritation caused by stitches, sensory nerve irritation, and now a flexor strain.  He had been treated by Dr. Dave Altchek, and he sought a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews.  We are continuously assured there are no structural issues, and yet, time and again there is a new excuse why he can’t pitch.  At the end of the day, it does not matter if he is unable to pitch due to his elbow or for other reasons.  Who knows when he can return or how effective he will be when returning.

There are more question marks in the rotation.  Steven Matz has yet to have a healthy season in the majors.  Bartolo Colon will be 44 years old next year meaning there is no guarantee that he pitches beyond this year.  Even if he does, there is no guarantee he will be this effective.  Logan Verrett has shown he is not capable of being a member of the starting rotation.  Sean Gilmartin‘s season ended early with shoulder problems.  The Mets aren’t going to pick up Jon Niese‘s option, and even if they did bring him back, you should probably expect more of the same from him.

The Mets other options are Gabriel Ynoa and Robert Gsellman, both of whom are probably not ready to start in the majors.  Even if they are, both realistically project to be middle to back of the rotation starters.  That certainly helps, but that also a huge drop off from someone like Harvey.

As if the starting pitching wasn’t a big enough issue, there is the issue of the Mets offense.

As we saw this year, you cannot rely upon David Wright at all.  The Mets have no internal options to replace his bat in the lineup.  Worse yet, there is a lack of very good options on the free agent market choices available even if the Mets were so inclined to add a bat.  Keep in mind, they may also have to replace Lucas Duda at first base.  In 2015, Duda had a disc issue.  This year, Duda will miss almost the entire season with a stress fracture in his back.  There is a very real chance that he is a non-tender candidate.  The Mets do not have a first base option in the minors who is on track to play in the majors next year, and again, the free agent market is less than promising.  That means James Loney can once again be the Mets best option, and as we have seen, he is not a terribly good everyday option.

This isn’t even the Mets biggest problem, not by a long shot.

Cespedes can opt out of his contract at the end of the season, and he will easily become the best free agent available.  The narrative coming out of last offseason was how much Cespedes wanted to be a Met, and that is why he returned.  That’s the hope why he will stay.  However, it’s more narrative than fact.

The fact is Cespedes didn’t get a fair market value offer on the free agent market.  Judging from the free agent contracts handed out, teams placed a higher value on Jason Heyward and Justin Upton.  The teams you would think would be interested in Cespedes gave the money to somebody else.  The Nationals were interested, but due to budgetary constraints, they only offered Cespedes a largely backloaded deal. It is possible that after another postseason berth, and Jonathan Papelbon‘s salary off the books, the Nationals could make another run at Cespedes in the offseason.  It is also possible that the Giants, Dodgers, Rangers and/or the Angels could emerge as suitors for Cespedes.  There’s always the phantom mystery team that could join the bidding.

It is certainly plausible the Mets get outbid from Cespedes, or they simply move on from him.  Keep in mind, there were rumblings all over that the Jay Bruce trade was made, in part, as insurance for Cespedes leaving in the offseason.  If that is the case, the Mets outfield will yet again be left without a true center fielder.

The main task may first fall to Curtis Granderson, who has struggled mightily this year and should not be counted on to rebound in 2017.  The Mets could go with a Juan Lagares/Brandon Nimmo platoon in center, but that would leave no room for Michael Conforto to play everyday.

Speaking of Conforto, there is another major issue with this Mets team.  Both Conforto and Travis d’Arnaud have regressed this year.  Certainly, Conforto’s wrist and d’Arnaud’s shoulder are factors, but the fact remains, they have regressed.  Couple that with Kevin Plawecki not progressing at all, there is a major issue.  Either the Mets young talent is not as good as anticipated, or there are impediments at the major league level that is preventing them from reaching their full potential.  In order for the Mets to remain contenders, they will need their young players to step up.

Between the aforementioned free agent market and lack of major league ready prospects, the Mets only real hopes of improving the roster is on the trade front.  The problem there is the cupboard is getting bare.  The Mets have already moved big pieces in Michael Fulmer and Dilson Herrera.  They’re not willing to move Amed Rosario, and they are really unlikely to move Dominic Smith.  The Mets could move Nimmo, but that depletes from their depth for next season, and as we have seen, the Mets need all the depth they can get.

Keep in mind that over the past two seasons, the Mets have also moved Robert Whalen, Luis Cessa, John Gant, Akeel Morris, and Casey Meisner.  They lost Matthew Bowman and Dario Alvarez without getting anything in return.  Their departures leaves a gap of mid-tier prospects the Mets could move for upgrades.

Yes, the Mets can field a very competitive baseball team next year.  As long as you have pitchers like Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, you are going to have a chance to compete.  With another year of Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia, it is a seven inning game for the Mets.  It’ll become a six inning game if Hansel Robles takes the next step.  But after that?

You’re counting on Neil Walker returning, which is not a guarantee.  You’re counting on Asdrubal Cabrera developing more range at shortstop while hitting better than .255/.308/.410.  He was a .249/.307/.405 hitter from 2013 – 2015.  You’re counting on Jose Reyes to hit better than his .250/.302/.466 and be healthy all of next year.  Reyes hit .274/.310/.378 while hitting in two of the best hitter’s parks last year.  You’re counting on Wilmer Flores being able to learn to hit righties.  You’re counting on the Mets not having to rely on the Eric Campbells and Ty Kellys on the world for prolonged stretches of time over the next season.  It’s all possible, but it’s not likely.

As things look right now, the Mets better start winning some ballgames and make a run because there is no guarantee that the Mets window to contend will remain open past this season.

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What Are the Mets Doing with Michael Conforto?

There were a number of reasons why the Mets made the move for Jay Bruce.  There was the obvious reason that Bruce was the major league RBI leader and he was hitting well with runners in scoring position.  His addition was meant to address the Mets issues in those areas.  The Mets also obtained Bruce as Yoenis Cespedes insurance, not just for this year with Cespedes quad, but also for next year in the event the Mets cannot re-sign him after he opts out.  Furthermore, and perhaps more importantly, the Mets acquired Bruce due to the struggles of Michael Conforto.

It’s at least a possibility that the Mets never make the trade for Bruce if Conforto was hitting like he should.  Instead, Conforto was mired in a horrific slump for two months after a hot April all but forcing the Mets hands.  The team would have to send him to AAA to try to set him straight.

Conforto would start out hitting pretty well when he came back from his stint in AAA.  In his first 12 games back, he hit .267/.371/.400 with four doubles and two RBI.   He was taking the right approach at the plate by not only looking to hit he ball the other way, but by also hitting it the other way with authority.  However, Conforto’s success wouldn’t carry forward.  Terry Collins outright refused to give him regular playing time.  He sat Conforto against lefties, and he sat him against tough righties like Justin Verlander and Jose Fernandez.  Collins sat Conforto at times in favor of Ty Kelly because apparently Collins thought Kelly gave the Mets a better chance to win.  By the way, the Mets are 7-14 in games in which Kelly plays.

Predictably, the young player gets lost on the bench, and he starts to press and lose his way.  Conforto began to slump, and he found himself amid a 2-20 slump.  In that stretch, Conforto only started in five of the Mets eight games, and he had only started 13 out of 23 possible games.  Naturally, the Mets decided to send Conforto back to the the minors . . . again . . . so he could get more playing time.  Apparently, this was a better solution than telling the manager the obvious – Play Conforto because he is a much better baseball player than Kelly.

In fact, Conforto, even at his worst, has been a better hitter than the other options the Mets have.  Even with Conforto struggling this year, consider this:

  • Michael Conforto – hitting .200/.298/.340 with four doubles, one homer, and three RBI in the 19 games he played after he spent time in AAA
  • Brandon Nimmo – hitting .237/.297/.288 with one homer and five RBI in 20 games with the Mets
  • Ty Kelly – hitting .186/.280/.256 with one homer and four RBI in 21 games with the Mets
  • T.J. Rivera – hitting .222/.211/.278 with a double and three RBI in six games (none in the outfield).

In relatively similar small sample sizes, Conforto has hit better than Nimmo, who had been called up in his stead when Conforto was first demoted.  Furthermore, Conforto has hit better than Kelly and Rivera, who the Mets have on the major league roster over Conforto now.

Also, take into consideration the Mets have a real center field problem.  The aforementioned Bruce is struggling in right field this year meaning he is not suited to play center field.  That leaves the Mets with the following two options to play in center field:

  • Curtis Granderson – hitting .187/.265/.293 with two doubles, two homers, and two RBI in his last 20 games
  • Alejandro De Aza – hitting .196/.339/.304 with two doubles, one homer, and three RBI in his last 20 games

Essentially, it is only Conforto who is being punished for being in a slump.  Remember that during an epic postgame rant following a 9-0 loss to the Padres on August 11th, Collins had this to say, “Starting tomorrow we’re going to get after it. And those that don’t want to get after it, I’ll find some who do. Because in Las Vegas there is a whole clubhouse of guys that want to sit in this room. And that’s all I have to say.”  (NJ.com).  After that game, Conforto was the only position player sent down because apparently he was the only player in that clubhouse that needed to be taught a lesson.

The end result is the Mets getting diminishing returns from Granderson as he is forced to play every day in center field.  It is also resulting in the Mets playing De Aza, who is once again slumping at the plate, against righties and Kelly, who cannot hit major league pitching, against lefties.  Even with his struggles, Conforto was better than the numbers those three are putting up right now.  Instead, the Mets would rather watch Conforto play everyday in AAA and tear the cover off the ball.  Since his ill advised punishment, sorry demotion, Conforto is 5-9 with a hit by pitch, three runs, a double, a homer, and two RBI.

This isn’t a AAA mirage either.  We’ve seen Conforto do that at the major league level.  However, in order for him to do that he actually has to play.  Instead, the Mets would rather leave him in the minors while fielding the worst possible team they can muster.  If the Mets really want to win, they would call up Conforto and play him everyday because at his worst, he’s still better than what the Mets are throwing out there right now.

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online

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