Jeurys Familia

Can the Royals Really Hit the Mets Pitching?

It seemed like the immediate narrative after the conclusion of both League Championship Series was the Mets biggest strength may not be a strength in the World Series:

As we all know, the Mets greatest strength is its good young pitching. The Mets pitching throws it hard and over 95 MPH:

  1. Matt Harvey – 96.54 MPH four seamer and 96.11 MPH sinker
  2. Jacob deGrom – 95.81 MPH four seamer and 95.49 MPH sinker
  3. Noah Syndergaard – 97.75 MPH four seamer and 97.78 MPH sinker
  4. Steven Matz 94.57 MPH four seamer
  5. Jeurys Familia 98.21 MPH four seamer and 97.66 MPH sinker 

That’s not good news. Fortunately for the Mets, that’s not the whole story. While the Royals hit high heat well, they do not hit offspeed pitching and breaking balls well. The Royals are only hitting .220 on pitches 87 MPH and below.  The highest percentage of Mets pitches this postseason was in this range. 

We saw it in the NLCS. The Mets did throw their 95+ MPH fastballs, but they also mixed in their offspeed and breaking pitches early. The Mets pitching isn’t great just because of their fastballs. They’re great because they pitch great. 

During the regular season, the Mets ranked second in WHIP with a 1.18 mark. They ranked fourth with a 3.49 K/BB ratio. They ranked fourth with a 3.43 ERA. They allowed the second least amount of walks, and they were sixth with a .243 batting average against. All said and done, if you want to beat the Mets pitching, you have to beat them. They’re not going to walk you, and they’re not giving up many hits. 

This either lines up perfectly for the Royals or it’ll be a complete disaster. The Royals were second to last in walks. They struck out the least amount of times. They were third in team batting average. They were 24th (last in the AL) in homers, but they were 11th in slugging. 

Overall, the Royals put a lot of balls in play against a staff that doesn’t allow a lot of hits. At times like this, I’m reminded of the adage of good pitching beats good hitting. It’s worked for the Mets so far this postseason. 

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How Not to Analyze This Series

If there’s one thing that drives me crazy every year, it’s position by position breakdowns. I see it with the Subway Series. It is done with the playoffs. Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com did one of these. It was well thought out and put together. However, it really doesn’t mean anything. 

I don’t say this to diminish his work. I’m just tired of the story. I’ve seen the feedback to the breakdown. The biggest argument people seem to have is Lorenzo Cain as being a better CF than Yoenis Cespedes. The focus there is misplaced and not just because he was right. It’s misplaced because Cain doesn’t battle Cespedes.  No position player battles another one unless Chase Utley is involved. 

Think about any position to position breakdown you might see. Does it really matter if someone has Wade Davis or Jeurys Familia as the better closer?  Think about it. Even if Davis is a better closer, do Mets fans really think Familia is going to blow a save because Davis is better?  Are the Mets going to lose this series because the Royals have a better SS? Are the Mets going to win because they have the better RF?  Of course not. 

The Mets will win or lose because of matchups and in game maneuvers. The Mets will win because they have the better pitching. The Mets may lose because the Royals have superior team defense, speed, and bullpen. This is what people should analyze. 

It’s exactly what I did in the NLDS and NLCS in predicting a Mets victory. It’s the right way to do it. I’ll have a prediction tomorrow. I hope the numbers again (and not just my heart) will point to the Mets

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THE METS HAVE WON THE PENNANT!

The Mets came out tonight and made sure they were going to quash any notion they were going to blow a 3-0 series lead. The opening salvo came off the bat of Lucas Duda:

Travis d’Arnaud finished the inning off by going back-to-back, apple-to-apple:

The Mets batted around in the first and had a 4-0 lead. This series, nay postseason, has belonged to NLCS MVP Daniel Murphy, but tonight belonged to Duda. Duda came alive in this game. In addition to the three run homer, he would hit a two run RBI double in the second. It would be a record tying hit:

It was all the Mets pitchers need. Steven Matz no-hit the Cubs through three. However, he allowed a run in the fourth, and he got in trouble in the fifth prompting Terry Collins to replace him with two outs in the inning. Bartolo Colon came in and struck out Kris Bryant with runners on first and second. 

Colon would pitch a clean sixth before being lifted for Addison Reed. Because Matz couldn’t get out of the fifth, Colon earned the win. It’s strange that the 42 year old Colin would get the pennant clinching win on a team with all of this dominant young pitching. The answer to the trivia question is Jeurys Familia struck out Dexter Fowler. 

  
As for Murphy?  He had an off night only going 3-4 with a double and a run scored in the first seven innings. In the eighth with his streak on the line he did this:

Overall, the Cubs had some fight in them, but it wasn’t enough. They lost 8-3 tonight. The only damage inflicted was Yoenis Cespedes leaving the game early with a sore shoulder. Hopefully, it’s not series because he’ll be needed in the WORLD SERIES!

The Mets swept the Cubs.  The Cuba never had a lead in the series. It is the first time the Mets have ever swept a best of seven series. I can’t believe I’m writing this, but the Mets are going to the World Series!  There’s no way to describe this amazing feeling. There may be only one way to describe this:

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Poison Ivy Can’t Even Stop These Mets

Normally, if I said to you there was a run scored on an out, you’d assume a fielder’s choice or a sacrifice fly. You’d see the occasional suicide squeeze. In this strange postseason where you don’t have to touch a base to be safe and Daniel Murphy became Babe Ruth, the Mets scored the go-ahead run on a two out strikeout. 

In the sixth, Yoenis Cespedes lead off with a single, and he moved to second on a Lucas Duda sac bunt. I thought he was going for a hit against the shift, but they awarded him with a sac bunt. Cespedes would steal third. Michael Conforto came up with two outs and would strike out:

Then the inning got strange. Wilmer Flores went the other way and hit a sinking line drive to right. It went under the glove of Jorge Soler. Conforto was already around third by the time the ball disappeared in the ivy. 

   
The common joke all over the place was Bartolo Colon could’ve scored on the play if he hit it. However, because of ground rules written in 1912, it was ruled a groundrule double. No runs scored. Conforto to third and Flores to second. They would be stranded, but the Mets escaped with a 3-2 lead. 

That lead would expand in the seventh. Cespedes knocked in David Wright, who had a great game, with a single off of Kyle Schwarber‘s glove. For the second time this series, Schwarber’s inexperience in the outfield cost the Cubs a run. Later in the inning, Murphy would score on a Duda groundout. 

On the mound, Jacob deGrom finally had a good start in Wrigley Field. His final line was 7.0 innings, two earned, one walk, and seven strikeouts. Tyler Clippard held down the eighth, and well Jeurys Familia got the save again. 

In other news, we care about from this game, Murphy did this in the third inning:

He’s now the Mets all time and single postseason homerun leader with six. He also tied a major league record by hitting a homerun in five straight postseason games. 

Wright was terrific. He went 3-4 with two runs, a walk, and a double. Duda snapped out of his funk a bit by going 1-3 with an RBI and no strikeouts. There something else I’m forgetting. 

Oh yeah, after the 5-2 win, the Mets are now one win away from the World Series. I can’t believe it. I can’t wait for tomorrow. 

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Curtis Has Been Grand

The most underrated person on the Mets roster all year has been Curtis Granderson. When fans and media discussed who was the Mets MVP most wrongly pointed to Yoenis Cespedes. Good arguments were made for Jeurys Familia. The real MVP was Granderson. 

Granderson is getting overshadowed again this postseason by Daniel Murphy. It’s understandable. Murphy has been amazing. However, so has Granderson. He’s been terrific. He’s done everything he can do to help the Mets win. He may be just as important to the Mets as Murphy has been. 

In the NLDS, he set the pace in Game One by going 2-3 with a walk against Clayton Kershaw. Not bad for a guy who can’t hit lefties. In Game Three, Granderson got the big double to turned a 3-1 deficit to a 4-3 lead:

It was a huge hit on the way to a 13-7 win and a 2-1 series lead. In the pivotal Game Five, he busted it out of the box and got an infield single, and he scored the first run of the game on the Murphy double. For the NLDS, he hit .389/.476/.500 with one run, two doubles, five RBIs, one stolen base, and three walks.

He’s continued play into the NLCS. In Game One, he had the go-ahead RBI single in the fifth. In the top half, Matt Harvey lost the no-hitter and the lead. Granderson gave the Mets with a two out RBI single to reclaim the lead. He then added to the lead with a sac fly in the seventh. 

Last night, he contributed more as a table setter. He lead off the game in the first and scored on David Wright‘s RBI double. He then manufactured a run in the third. After a leadoff walk, he stole two bases giving him an opportunity to score on the Cespedes infield single. Oh yeah, he also did this: 

In the NLCS, he’s gone 2-6 with two runs, two RBIs, one walk, and a robbed homerun. Once again another Met player is grabbing the headlines while Granderson is the driving force behind this team. 

He’s been Grand. 

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Halfway There

The Mets are up 2-0 in this series because they repeated the same formula from last night: (1) great starting pitching; (2) Daniel Murphy hitting homers; and (3) Curtis Granderson being a table setter. 

Noah Syndergaard used his fastball to overpower the Cubs lineup. On only two days rest from his relief appearance, he would pitch 5.2 innings allowing three hits, one earned, one walk, and nine strikeouts. The nine strikeouts but him in elite company:
https://twitter.com/bbtn/status/655932871832653824

Thor allowed his first and only run when Kris Bryant hit an RBI double. He walked off to a standing ovation and gave way to Jon Niese. Niese pitched today despite recently losing a family member. He summoned everything he had and struck out Anthony Rizzo. As he left the mound to cheers, he pointed to the sky as if to say thank you to the new angel who was at his side tonight. 

The Mets then went to the regular season bullpen formula of Addison Reed–Tyler Clippard–Jeurys Familia. The kept the Cubs at bay and preserved the 4-1 win. 

The Mets got three of those four runs in the first. It started with a Granderson single. He scored on a . . . wait my notes can’t be correct . . . let’s me check the box score online. Wow, Granderson scored on an RBI double from David Wright. That is why you let your best players play. Speaking of your best player, Murphy hit yet another homerun. 

He’s unconscious: 

https://twitter.com/bbtn/status/655912985618161664

In the third, Granderson reminded everyone he should be in the way too soon MVP discussion.  He walked and stole second. This gave the Cubs the opportunity to walk Murphy rather than let him hurt you again. Granderson then stole third and scored on the Yoenis Cespedes infield single. To further his MVP case, Granderson robbed Chris Coghlan of a homerun:

When you have great pitching and two players in a dogfight for NLCS MVP, you’re going to be up 2-0 in the series. After taking care of home field, the Mets travel to Wrigley with a significant advantage in the starting pitching matchup. Let’s let Bon Jovi take us out since the Mets are halfway there while living on a prayer:

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Have the Cubs Really Beat the Mets Pitching?

As I pointed out earlier, the regular season numbers should be discounted coming into the playoffs. The Mets lineup is completely different. The pitching staff appears to be as well. Here is who pitched against the Cubs, and how they fared (* not on the postseason roster):

May 11, 2015 – Wrigley Field
Jacob deGrom L, 5.0 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 5 K
Hansel Robles 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
Sean Gilmartin* 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
Buddy Carlyle* 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Erik Goeddel 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
May 12, 2015 – Wrigley Field
Noah Syndergaard (first career start) L, 5.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 6 K
Alex Torres* 0.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
Sean Gilmartin* 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Hansel Robles 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

May 13, 2015 – Wrigley Field
Matt Harvey 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
Carlos Torres* BS, L, 1.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

Jeurys Familia 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

May 14, 2015 – Wrigley Field
Jon Niese L, 6.1 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
Hansel Robles 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

Jack Leathersich* 0.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

Erik Goeddel 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

June 30, 2015 – Citi Field
Jon Niese L, 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 5 K

Bobby Parnell* 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Sean Gilmartin* 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

July 1, 2015 – Citi Field
Bartolo Colon 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
Bobby Parnell* 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

Jeurys Familia 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

Hansel Robles 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

Carlos Torres* L, 0.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

Sean Gilmartin* 0.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

July 2, 2015 – Citi Field
Jacob deGrom L, 5.1 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K

Logan Verrett* 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Alex Torres* 1.0 IP, 1 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

The Cubs beat the Mets seven times. Of those losses, two were by Jacob deGrom, two were by Niese, two were by Carlos Torres, and one was by Thor. Only deGrom and Thor remain in the rotation. 

So to sum up, the Dodgers did do well against deGrom. Conversely, deGrom has reached another gear in the playoffs. The Cubs couldn’t hit Harvey. They never faced Steven Matz. They faced Thor in his first career start. Thor has gotten much better since that game:

Also, the Mets bullpen is significantly different. It’s important to note considering that Torres blew two games. They now have Addison Reed and Tyler Clippard. 

While we know the Mets are a different team than, the Cubs are very similar. The only real change is Kyle Schwarber, who is just mashing the ball. However, I doubt he is enough to overcome the Mets pitching upgrades.  

The Mets are vastly improved. I think it’s enough. 

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Murphy Wins the NLDS

I’m still not sure how the Mets did it. Jacob deGrom had nothing. Zack Greinke had his best stuff. Everyone not named Daniel Murphy had a bad day at the plate. 

However, Murphy was all it took. In the first, after a successful challenge awarding Curtis Granderson an infield single, Murphy came up with one out:

It was later changed to a double and an error, but it was a huge RBI hit nevertheless. He would be stranded.

In the bottom of the first deGrom was hit HARD. He couldn’t locate at all. The 1-0 lead quickly became a 2-1 deficit. Every inning thereafter deGrom was in trouble. Deep trouble. I still don’t know how he kept rope-a-doping the Dodgers, but he did. His final line was:

The stat line is so misleading because deGrom was not good at all, and yet, he was brilliant. He summoned everything he had and somehow fought through six innings in the biggest game of his life. Sure, Game One was incredible, but I was more impressed by this. He won this game by sheer will.

He got the win because of Murphy’s help. With the Mets down 2-1 in the fourth, Murphy singled. With one out, Lucas Duda worked out a walk. However, with the extreme shift and Greinke failing to cover third, Murphy stole third:

He would score on a Travis d’Arnaud sac fly, but with the Mets sputtering offense, the inning would soon be over. 

Murphy would come up again in the sixth, and did this:

He gave the Mets a 3-2 lead almost single-handedly. He went 3-4 with two runs, two RBIs, a stolen base, a double, and a homer. 

After deGrom’s final inning, Noah Syndergaard, who had been up and down all game long (not an exaggeration) entered in the seventh. He Thortuted the Dodgers. He was seemingly the only Met to get doubles machine Justin Turner out in this series. 

Jeurys Familia came in for the six out save. He zipped through the eighth. He got Jimmy Rollins to ground out to end the inning. He faced Chase Utley to start the ninth. He got perfect revenge by getting the coward to fly out to right on his way to saving this 3-2 game giving the Mets a 3-2 series win. The answer to your trivia question is Familia struck out Howie Kendrick for the final out.
This game was a microcosm of the Mets season. They struggled to score runs, but they got enough. They relied on their young pitching to take them home. It was very impressive. The Mets have now slayed the demons of 1988, 2007, and 2008. 

This game was gravy as the NLCS will be. Lets Go Mets!

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Why I’m Confident Tonight

Since the end of Game 4, I’ve been talking to other Mets fans. The general consensus seems to be the fans are nervous, but they think the Mets can win this game. I’m oddly confident.

I think it’s because Jacob deGrom is pitching. I think it’s because Bartolo Colon has pitched well out of the bullpen. I think it’s because the Mets have Jeurys Familia in the bullpen, and Terry Collins isn’t afraid to deploy him for more than three outs. I think it’s because the Mets best hitters have hit well against Zack Greinke. 

Overall, it’s because the Mets are just a better team. They’ve scored more runs in this series. They’re young pitching has been just as good as the Dodgers pitching, if not better. Finally, the Dodgers just aren’t hitting:

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That’s the Dodgers boxscore from Game 4 (from Baseball Reference). If you look over the list, they’re top four hitters are the only ones getting any hits. The first, Kike Hernandez, didn’t play in Game One, and he’s hitting .234/.262/.311 against righties this year.  Howie Kendrick may have gone 1-3 against deGrom in Game One, but that means he’s now 1-6 lifetime off of him.  Adrian Gonzalez went 0-3 against deGrom in Game 1. Justin Turner has gone 2-8 lifetime (including Game One) against deGrom, and he’s dealing with a knee injury, which forced him out of Game Four. 

If there are only four Dodgers hitting, and two of them may not be in the lineup, I’m going to feel confident. If I have deGrom tonight, I’m going to feel confident. After seeing everything we’ve seen this year, and the Mets having fought through it, I’m going to feel confident. 

First pitch can’t get here soon enough. 

Lets Go Mets!

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Mets Used Mo Familia

One of the reasons I had confidence in Terry Collins in the playoffs was his willingness to use Jeurys Familia for more than three outs to close out a game. This season Familia did it more than anyone.

Familia is by far the best reliever on the Mets. In my opinion, he was the best relief pitcher in baseball. When the game is on the line, you want your best guy out there. Don Mattingly didn’t, and Terry Collins did. So yes, Mets fans, Collins out managed Mattingly and had a direct impact on why the Mets won. 

You can quibble with Tyler Clippard starting the eighth. I don’t think it’s fair because Clippard has been good with the Mets. Regardless, Collins was prepared. Once Clippard got into trouble, he went to Familia with two outs in the eighth. Familia got out of the jam and pitched a perfect ninth for the save. Moves like this are why Joe Torre is in the Hall of Fame, and Mariano Rivera will be one day. 

Am I comparing Familia to Rivera?  No. Not yet at least. Rivera was as dominant as you can ask in the playoffs. He was 8-1 with 42 saves, a 0.70 ERA, and a 0.759 WHIP. He’s averaged 1.1 innings per postseason appearance. He was the 1999 World Series and the 2003 ALCS MVP. He was everything you wanted your closer to be. 

Does Familia need to equal these numbers to be successful in the postseason?  Of course not. He just needs to be himself. He’s a closer that can go multiple innings. He can come on in the middle of an inning to get out of a jam. He can generate groundballs. He strikes out more than a batter an inning. He’s built for the playoffs. 

Rivera had an amazing career. He was even better in the playoffs. This season Familia showed he was capable of being a great closer. Last night, he didn’t shrink from the moment. Rather, he was, at a minimum, as good as he was in the regular season. 

As the playoffs and his career go on, I can’t wait to see Mo. 

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